Crypto Week Ahead: 17th - 21st May 2021 (BTC/ETH/DGE/LINK/XRP/HBAR/ADA)

Good morning everybody, welcome to Monday the 17th of May 2021. Uh, so what we're going to do today is we're going to have a look at the crypto space and a couple of these coins: Cardano, Stellar, HBAR, Doge, LINK, uh, Ripple, Ethereum, and of course Bitcoin. So what we've had over the weekend is Elon tweeting away like, like he doesn't own Bitcoin. Essentially, there, there, you know, we have reports that Tesla, or rumors that Tesla, are potentially dropping their entire Bitcoin position. And so it's, it's a bit of a disruption to the space. For me, I think this is just a lot of noise. I, you know, I was saying this to Anthony last week that, you know, a lot of these markets like are bigger than any one individual. And we see that in the futures space all the time, um, that, you know, people make, pass big commentary on markets. I'm really, you know, yeah, there is that initial volatility bout and headline risk that does initially affect that market, but those markets then largely shrug off, um, those, you know, comments like this. And I am, I am saying that I think we're seeing, going to see this with Bitcoin, um, you know, from Elon's commentary. Uh, so what we're going to do is, as a weekly look ahead, we're just going to look at some of these coins as they trade on the daily, maybe zoom into the 60 minutes, and really see where they are technically. So I have actually been tracking these for the past, uh, number of months. Um, I am a holder of, uh, the coins that we're going to be looking at. And, you know, just, uh, for, for all due diligence purposes. And, um, yeah, so let's just go across and have a look at these charts. So, um, you know, from the top, um, really actually let's go from the bottom right, and we have Bitcoin here. And so, you know, this is Binance data. And so here's the range that I've been looking at for Bitcoin, working really 46,069s on the low here, up to 67— sorry, 62,750s on the high. And you can see, using that sort of framework of the market, um, then, you know, I've got this lovely area. You can see where trade has been contained, albeit blowing out, um, here on the top, uh, in— or sorry, the 9th of April, and just not being able to hold above that range and then work it back in And then you can see loosely at the top of the range here, it's just contained to go back down to the other side. Just technically mapping this out for you, so to show you what you're looking at. Also, I've used a couple of key levels like the 20,000, which for Will and myself was this real demarcation line for the breakout, then the pullback, and then the bid up to where we are now, you know, 3 times the value, if not more. Um, but, you know, also using a Fib extension tool from the swing low that we saw on the 26th of Jan this year to the swing high that we saw on the 20th of Feb this year, and then the pullback, um, low to the 27th of Feb. And that gives us these Fibonacci extension, uh, targets, which, um, you know, they may not make so much sense to you looking at them now, but, um, you know we will track them as we go on through time. So I'm just going to cut them short and put them on the left here for now. So from a fundamental perspective, um, you know, we were looking at on our Twitch feed last week, uh, the sort of bear flag-ish activity that we see just in this, uh, this sort of sideways, apparently sideways consolidation. But, you know, we did fall out of bed on that bear flag really actually only, uh, falling out properly last Wednesday. I did flag this up at the time, and you know, then coming into the weekend, uh, we've seen Elon just bashing Bitcoin, driving it back down at the bottom of this range here. Um, you know, I actually think there's a good buy here on Bitcoin. I'd had this highlighted as a nice area I wanted to get involved at, the $46,069 bottom of the range. Um, and, and you can see there was a stand-up off of that level which would have been a nice intraday long, um, last week. And we could certainly go over to the, um, the 60-minute chart and have a look at that there. And so here is that sort of pullback on— uh, sorry, that's not the pullback on that level. Um, this is the wrong, uh, this is Stellar. Uh, let me get onto my Bitcoin 60-minute. Here you go. So essentially, yeah, well, within that 1-hour bar, here we go, we pipped into this area lot of risk, um, you know, potentially blowing out traders on that long, um, but then getting back up into this range and then, you know, just working its way back again. You know, APAC session this morning, drop— it can't hold in the range, dropping back. This actually to me now looks like a decent short for the intraday traders. Uh, you're shorting the 46.069s as your sort of risk-off level and then trade this on down to get a lot cheaper than it is right now. So for me, I actually think for now there is more downside on Bitcoin until we, until we essentially probably have reversal of commentary from Elon, or he comes out and says he's just joking or something like that. And, you know, but until then, I don't like the look of Bitcoin. We will talk about Bitcoin when we talk about our Hedera Hashgraph, or also known as HBAR. to the Bitcoin-denominated, um, asset there. But the other big boy in town is, as we all know, Ethereum, also the only other futures CME-traded crypto product. Um, I was looking at the bear flag that we had here a couple— well, really back, uh, way back on, um, the 12th. So, you know, or sorry, last, last Wednesday. Um, we have been tracking this bear flag, right? And then lo and behold, we blew out the top, put in a new all-time high here, up at €43.85— or sorry, USD to the Ethereum— before then receding back into the bear flag, right? And that's when I had this sort of area that I wanted to be short. After actually looking to buy a pullback, then I just thought, wow, I might want to short this thing. And sure enough, we came down to retest this Fib extension level here at $32.57. Now this Fib extension level, again, like any Fibonacci extension, we got the low 22nd of Feb, uh, 2021, uh, then we have the high, uh, 13th of March, and then the pullback 24th of March. And that gives us our projection areas moving up here. A nice target on this blowtop high that we had. So, you know, the market firmly stuck in this sort of a range, really. Uh, let me just kind of put on, you know, something a little bit like this. Um, you know, the buying, I think, on the 3257s here. Uh, I'm not so sure if this is going to hold up. I think we could get a little bit deeper on the pullback. Um, this was the main really decent breakout area, $2551.90, uh, on Ethereum for me. And I think, you know, if I really wanted to pile into this, which I do, I'd definitely be waiting for the $2551s. Uh, you could be starting to add in a little bit here in the $3257s, albeit, you know, I'd rather wait until we get this sort of Elon, you know, air out of the market. Uh, looking at— sorry, just fix that up there. Uh, looking at, let's see, Doge. Uh, Doge, I mean, what a coin. Uh, just, just talking about this with someone, we have broken out of this well-defined range that we had in Doge. Um, you know, putting in— I think there's this 400% up move here. Um, over like, I think we did 400% in one session. Uh, there a couple of weeks ago. But for me, we are sort of building into what is like a, like a flag, sideways consolidation structure. I always monitor these things and they break out the way, the way they came in. So this, this flag was formed on the bid side and I think it will exit on the bid side. And when you— and it's not uncommon to see fakeouts on the breakout. So you get a fakeout on the breakout, and then that gets entirely reversed quite aggressively. So this is kind of the shape of the market I see on, on Doge. I think it's very well supported on the €0.38 of the Doge, um, which is the top of this range. So, you know, nice, nice area to buy here and get on with further upside prices. And even if it fails and comes back down, I think, you know, you should be buying down here at the 18 or 19 euro cent, and 100% buying, you know, at the 11 euro cents to Doge. Uh, that's just the shape of the market on the daily bars that I can see here. Uh, LINK, not going to spend too much time on LINK. This is as clear and clean as it gets, almost. Well, no, this one probably isn't as clean as one or two of the others I'm going to show you, but what we've seen is the range well defined. And finally firming up here, uh, late April. Excuse me. And then moving up into what was a bear flag. We got the breakdown but then well supported on the top of the range. I think we have seen the low for probably, uh, this quarter on LINK. Um, but you know, I don't like putting out massive calls like that willy-nilly. Uh, you know, I'd like to— I'd like— I'd like to think this will remain supported I don't really want to see these markets coming back into the ranges that they've largely spent, you know, all of this year forming as a nice sort of jump point base area to go on for higher. Ripple, you know, Ripple's a bit of a— Ripple has had the weight of an SEC investigation for the past 6 months on its back, maybe even longer. But now the sort of, uh, commentary coming out of that SEC conversation and, uh, and, and, and, um, that investigation is actually now swaying towards Ripple's favor. Um, they're not viewing a lot of the activity that went on as being nefarious. And so I think this is why I am interested in owning Ripple for much further upside now. I think, you know, we have the flag pennant. This should exit the way it came in. I think consolidation here is good, it's healthy. I mean, obviously, you know, you wouldn't want to see this and be a buyer, but I do like the longs from, say, the spot €0.80 to the Ripple coin. So yeah, I mean, I I think further upside on this, who knows right now where it's going, but, you know, Fib extension tools are telling me, um, essentially that we do have, uh, you know, good consolidation up here at the 1 spot 5676. And, you know, the next leg up, I don't really have too much of a target apart from the 2 spot 3511 euro cent, and that's a 423% extension. Fibonacci. Now, just to give you a little flavor of, um, what the percentile gain from where we are now, for example, is to there, uh, you're looking at about 86% increase in baseline price, uh, from here to there. I'll take, I'll take that trade any day, absolutely. Uh, so I do like Ripple. I do like the fundamentals, how it's softening, and I think, you know, there's value to be had there right now. Um, Yeah, that's, that's as simple as that really on Ripple. So I actually overall, I am very bullish on a lot of these coins. HBAR, a fantastic, uh, really fantastic coin. Um, this is really part of more so the data blockchain space rather than DeFi or anything like that. So Hedera Hashgraph is kind of used to confirm database transactions and handing, you know, crisscrossing data across a lot, a lot of systems. And, um, and Ripple is— or sorry, HBAR is, is a network used to facilitate that. I've actually worked in this space, um, for a number of years, and, uh, you know, I'm quite familiar with what's going on with HBAR. For me, the fundamental aspect is that I don't know if many of the very large tier partners that HBAR have on their council, the Hedera Hashgraph Council, are going to be happy with, you know, 100%, 200% markup on the cost of transferring their data. But we are talking very, very, very small beans per confirmation of transaction, or any of the dApps, digital apps that are built on this network. And so I think there is quite a lot of upside left for this to run. And I'm, I'm trading HBAR to the Bitcoin, so anytime we get softness in Bitcoin, we're obviously going to see appreciation of the underlying price on, on HBAR BTC. So definitely I'm staying in here for a continued breakout. Yeah, you could definitely get another pullback here on, uh, 549s. $5.49s. So, you know, I'd be a buyer there again. I don't think this is a fake out on the upside. I firmly believe in the upside on this, on this coin. So what else can we see? Ripple— sorry, not Ripple, Stellar. Stellar is actually one of my overweight coins, and I have no problem sharing that. And so again, with the range that we've, we've formed throughout this year, and just fantastic buying, you know, participation every time we we break out above and pull back to the top of this range. I mean, it's just evident to see here on the daily bars. I'm still looking at buying more on the 47,914, uh, Stellar to the euro. And the shape of these markets will be exactly the same, um, on your USDs or your euros, to be honest. Maybe a little bit different, um, but you know, I wouldn't be too concerned about that. I think the, the overall shape and momentum of these markets is explained by each of their individual charts, whether it's Stellar GBP, Stellar AUD, Stellar USD, or Euro. Um, albeit Stellar Euro— or sorry, Stellar— or any of these coins paired with the US dollar are obviously going to benefit quite a lot given that we have this weaker dollar environment, right? I mean, if we look at, um We look at this weaker dollar environment here, um, the Dixie, which is what, you know, one of the markets that we cover in the, in the main pro, uh, room, uh, is that, you know, this Dixie trade is, is, you know, the Dixie to me is set for trading down to 89 spot twos, um, certainly down to the 89 spot nines, um, and breaching below. And, you know, this is a well-telegraphed trade to the market, to be honest. So why is this important? Well, if you're trading crypto and you have USD-denominated coins and positions, uh, well, well then, you know, you're set for a pretty decent, uh, enduring upside as that Dixie value slides off as we have these inflation readings coming in and devaluing that currency. So And, you know, and then finally, ADA, Cardano. Cardano, Richard's one of the pro traders in the Crypto Room. Richard's favorite coin, I say tongue-in-cheek, but really this has been fantastic on the breakout of the range. And then a pullback here, seeing— when did we get this pullback? This was, strictly speaking, this was actually on the 10th of May. And you know, that pullback being well supported on the bid, going, moving up here to the €2 marker, uh, to the ADA. I think, I think, you know, yeah, we're having a pretty deep pullback today. I'm not scared. I think we're going to be seeing much higher prices here as we go on through the rest of the summer and indeed just the rest of this month. I think we're going to see some pretty well-supported buyback— or sorry, well-supported sell-offs here, like the one we're seeing this morning. Well, I wouldn't qualify this as sell-off, it's just a pullback really. It'd be a sell-off if it crashed down below the range high, which is here at 1.23 range high. So that's really a little look ahead for the week. The trades, you know, I think I'd be trading off a lot of these range highs and lows. for the week, looking for the edge there. Um, you know, I think it's, it's best for me to be monitoring these things on the, on the, on the daily bars and kind of keep us out of, you know, any of those itty-bitty marginal trades that can get us all into a lot of trouble and get you really turned around on managing your, your, your book and your investment book in these products. Um, so yeah, if anyone wants to reach out to me, you can get me in the Discord room live every day. I'm live on video and chat with the guys and girls. You can email me t.duggan@amplifytrading.com or reach out to me on Twitter. It's @timduggan, @timdugg. So listen, guys and girls, have a fantastic trading week. Don't listen to Elon. And yeah, I hope it goes well for you. We'll see you towards the end of the week. Cheers.