Crypto Week Ahead: 24th - 28th May 2021 (BTC/ETH/XRP/LINK/MATIC/DGE/XLM/HBAR)

Hey folks, welcome to another Monday in these markets. We are Monday the 24th of May 2021. We have had a hell of a ride since last Wednesday and indeed this weekend also on the crypto DeFi space. Really, it started with Elon Musk hammering the market really last, or the weekend before last, with comments. Then again through the week around Wednesday, Tesla then not accepting Bitcoin for buying Tesla cars anymore. And then coming into Friday, we've had the Chinese authorities come out and say that they are going to clamp down hard on Bitcoin mining. They have reservations about the energy usage that these farmers, miners have on the general system. So I know a lot of people are kind of confused as to what caused the downside volatility over the weekend. And really, you know, 3 o'clock yesterday GMT time, you know, the offers really started coming in across all these markets. You know, you can pick the rhetoric that you want as to why we're selling off. For me, it really is this Chinese authorities' statement, and they didn't outright say they were going to do anything towards banning. That wasn't a word that they actually used. So they just said they were going to clamp down on the space. And, you know, I think we have been here before with this type of rhetoric from the Chinese government, from Beijing. So You know, without further ado, let's— you know, these charts are very technical. Uh, we are scant on fundamentals most of the time with these, with these markets. So without further ado, let's go and have a look at these charts. So you can see here, uh, really, let's go to Bitcoin first, uh, where it all starts from. You know, uh, a lot of, a lot of the scare coming in here. And this was, what was this, uh, Wednesday the 12th of May. And this was, you know, Elon, Elon coming in and really hammering the markets down. Um, and then really coming into the middle of last week, you know, Wednesday here, well, Tuesday night really, we'd hammered down on this candle, putting in these lows here of, uh, well, pressing below this support area, which was essentially a high put in on the 26th, uh, of, uh, December last year, uh, day after Christmas. Um, and so we crushed down below there, triggering some stops, before then finishing that session and closing that session out. Um, you know, quite, quite, quite well on the bounce. The following day we did have a little bit more of a bounce. However, you know, I was kind of poking at, at, at some of the people who were buying that midweek bounce, uh, last night, because you you know, we had— it had continued to dip. The nightmare for all dip buyers, right? So, um, you know, by the by, anyway, we've had a pretty drastic selling day yesterday, pressing down again on the 31,427s area here. And, you know, for me, I think, you know, that this market isn't really out of the woods here. Yes, it does look like it's the sell-side pressure has abated for now, and we probably are going to tip on back to 46,069s, um, up here. But I really— I'm not sure what we're— what we're gonna get when we come back to the 46,069s. I'm pretty sure it is going to make an attempt to come back into this range that I've identified here, that range high put in, uh, the 7th of Jan this year, and the range kind of sort of sorry, the range low, um, started really to accept, if you like, as a market area on the 27th of February here. And then we sort of struggled at the tops, um, all the way through March, essentially, um, well, early March, and then trying to get above but just couldn't hold it. And so the top of that range really then proven containment for this price action to crush us down to where we are now. And You can see even on this arrow here, you know, you can see the market did identify with the range, did see that there was a nice area to buy there, except, uh, you know, liquidation continued. Capitulation still continues in this market. Um, you know, I'm not seeing a huge wave of buying coming in on this. $31,427 on the low. So, you know, I, I want to keep a lot of dry powder on the sidelines right now. Yeah, I've, I've taken some more Ethereum as of this morning, taken some Ripple as of, uh, very early this morning. Uh, so let's get over and have a look at those markets. But for me, uh, Bitcoin, I'm not going to be surprised if we see the $20K marker again at all. And what I've said on Twitter is once we get down to $20K, the world and his mother know that there are a ton of stops to trigger below $20K because probably not a lot of people want to take a sub-$20K ride. on this product if they're, if they're really buying anywhere above 30s. Um, you know, I think that's a hell of a bad risk-reward picture there. But by and large, I think most of the people holding this are, are holders, you know, the diamond hands, um, all of this sort of stuff. So I think things could get wild, um, if we put in a day closing below the 31,427s. And that's really, you know, all I want to say about this. So I am going to put on a little buy zone area down here for if and when we do get there. So that's Bitcoin. You know, there is a school of thought that I would subscribe to that would say this is the kind of leader coin. Ethereum is number 2. That's just a given. But the school of thought I have is that, you know, Bitcoin is fundamentally driving the bus here. Across this whole space. And so, you know, we have a lot of derivatives, and a lot of the yield farming is indeed based upon Bitcoin and Ethereum constructs, if you like, the, you know, staking Ethereum, staking Bitcoin. So therefore, and you know, if these coins do come off, it is going to cause a much wider spread disruption across the sort of the tokenomics, if you like, at play in the yield farming space and in the staking space. And so therefore, you know, should we get that pressure down on Bitcoin, we are going to see much lower prices across, across the whole picture here. Now, to talk about the number 2 coin that we all know about, Ethereum— these are all daily bars, by the way, um, you know, we're not going to get caught up in the intraday and this stuff really because the obvious moves are happening. Here. So, uh, yeah, I like this, uh, high on Ethereum to the dollar, uh, put in around 2000 level. It has been supported on the way up, and the, you know, the market is not accepting a close below this area so far. Come very close last night, um, closing at about 2103s, and, uh, you know, we're now bid up off of this area. Um, do I, do I, do I believe in this? This is the bottom for Ethereum? I don't think I have to. I think I just need to know what value is, you know, and if I see the value being held, I can continue to trade that. And I see the value here is, you know, I'm in this thing personally, and I think a lot of people are, and for, you know, a much bigger trade than a scalp or position. And we're in this for a big swing and a fundamental trade more than anything else. So fundamentally I believe in 2,000 Ethereum, absolutely is value. And so crushing closing below here, yeah, we could be buyer at $1,357, which is this next area down here. I like that, I think it's— that's a good price. I don't really see, if we are to get below there, um, decent support or resistance. So if I change to a logarithmic chart and just put this on automatic we're going to be able to see a little bit of that, um, here. And so we're looking at, yeah, some of these prices, um, you know, but you're talking silly prices by comparison to where we are now, like about the $4.28s, uh, sorry, $4.95s. And we've also got a marker here at the, uh, $3.66s. Now these are— I'm not saying that we're going to trade these prices, but it's always good to know if you've traded oil from, you know, plus $40 to negative $40. It does always pay dividends to have these levels marked up and really never say that anything is impossible in a market. So, you know, I do like the logarithmic because we can, we can get to see the activity down here at these smaller prices. So for me, I think the support, ultimate support here is $1,357. I don't know if we're going to trade that. I have bought more Ethereum um, in this session so far. And, uh, yeah, you know, I'm holding in there, guys and girls. So technically, I wouldn't be scared on any action from sort of the 2,000 down to the 1,357s, but I'm certainly not going to be aggressively just buying in, buying in, buying into the free fall, um, should we get that. And, you know, and if we take an excursion below the 1,357s I'm just going to sit on it really and, and, um, and, uh, and, and weather the storm. You know, I think this is a longer trade, as I was saying. So, um, that's Ethereum for you. Um, just let me— I think I have to turn this one back, do I? No, there we go, that'll be fine. Uh, so that's Ethereum on the logarithmic. Um, what else should we go to? Ripple. You know, Ripple is kind of interesting in that it has an ongoing SEC investigation, albeit that investigation retro- The tone from that investigation has been softening towards Ripple. One thing to be really aware of here, folks, is that one of the founders of Ripple liquidated about 265 million coins over the weekend, right? So that may have led to a certain amount of downside pressure in the overall picture, um, but you know, I'm pretty bullish on, on Ripple for, you know, the 2 spot. 3.4 marker at the top here. This is Ripple to the euro, uh, so you just, you know, currency adjust for the 2-spot 3.4 euro cent there. Um, yeah, I think the structure of this market is still holding. I think we have a consolidation zone that we were in down here, uh, sideways like this. I think we had the breakout, and I think we've— we've looked at that, you know, to the tick. We've pulled back and traded that, and now we're going bid. And I think, fine, this is good, I like it, bullish. And, you know, I think this, this pullback we've had just on any of these coins actually is incredibly bullish now for new all-time highs to come this summer. Um, now I know, you know, under traditional, uh, technical analysis, that may not be something that you would be so, um so aggressively getting on with that trade. But, you know, having traded these things now for about 6 months, you know, there is a rhythm and there is a sort of a pattern to the buying, the selling, the sell-offs, then the rebuy off the bottom. So, you know, you kind of got to be monitoring these things. But sure, if I switch this to a logarithmic, it might actually show you a better picture as well. And same with a lot of these, a lot of these coins. So I just switch on automatic again, and then funny there that it's actually curving this, this what was a straight line. That's pretty— I've never seen that in a charting system before. Um, so let's just get this, uh, to play ball a little bit. Logarithmic charts are not altogether the easiest things in the world. And actually, I think I'm limited by the amount of data I can get off Binance here. Yeah, I am. So, all right, we're just going to put that back to standard linear chart anyway for now and, uh, do a bit of this. Cool. So that's Ripple. Very bullish on Ripple. Um, LINK. Yeah, LINK is really, you know, by this bear flag that it fell out of bed down to test the range. Did take an initial day buying over that range here on this day. I did have a buy on that for my own buying. Again, this is not investment advice, this is purely entertainment and educational purposes that we're doing this. So yeah, I did have a buy there. I actually didn't buy it because I just saw this, this selling was so heavy. We're now back into, you know, holding on the bottom of this range, which is about €17 per LINK. I'd be interested to see now if we can hold this range and get bid on back up. But albeit, you know, I don't want to be just trading the range, I want to be trading the breakout on the top of the range. And so maybe, you know, some headwinds are really picking up for LINK, Chainlink. Coin at this time, albeit it is a high-grade, uh, what I would term a high-grade DeFi system and network and coin. So, you know, it is quite expensive at $18, but, you know, the value is the value for me on this coin. I actually did mean to add MATIC to here, and I could probably do that super quick. If you give me a little second, I could get my MATIC up here. I'll just add this and then I'll just copy chart, duplicate chart, and then we'll just do a quick little bit of, uh, um, CRChart magic if you hold with me here. And then we're going to, uh, MATIC. Because the, um, the technicals on MATIC were actually very clear and clean, um, as of last night. Um, actually, sorry, this morning at about 4 AM. So let's just see if we can get the MATIC up here. We can. MATIC. We'll just do MATIC to Euro, uh, for now. And okay, okay, let's just copy the symbol anyway, and then we will duplicate this chart too. Chart, and then we'll have a daily, 60-minute, we'll call this one. And we'll just hide that one so we can look at the daily bar here on MATIC. I'll just get some text on here. Cool. So this is MATIC on the— oh, let me get the 1-day bars. Yeah, it's quite scant in terms of how much data I'm allowed to pull down from Binance. See if I can load a whole lot more. No, I can't. However, this sort of range was what I was looking at here, um, on MATIC into this buying. Uh, you could even say the consolidation range was sort of here. Given that these candles could close into that range. And so this is why I'm kind of bullish on MATIC to the euro. Let me just widen this out a bit. So I have been looking into MATIC over the weekend. I know I'm probably slow to look into it by comparison to the rest of the market. However, this is a pretty high-grade DeFi coin and network system. A few friends in the States, and indeed one of the traders on the Elite Team, is an avid MATIC trader. And you know, I do like this coin, cheap at the price, €1.15 at market. And you can see how, how beautiful a breakout and pullback it is here on this former range that we really started putting in 28th of April this year to the breakout and then the pullback that we had the 14th of May. So you know, I really like the structure of this market. I really like the potential here for a new all-time high. You know, looking at, um, looking at the chart calculator. If I just get my chart calculator up, you're probably looking at from the pullback on the high, basically open of today, up to probably the all-time high is going to be— that's a 60.47, uh, move to back up to the highs here. And I think it's going to do it. So that's a pretty good risk-reward here. And yeah, we like it. I like it. So, uh, Doge, I mean, talking about Doge, yeah, it's funny because I do, I do see a shift across the part, across media, uh, crypto and investing media towards Doge being the people's coin. Everyone wants Doge, no one's thinking about supply. And but, you know, with the massive overhang of, of limitless supply essentially on this thing it's really hard to then fundamentally say, well, why should this be— why should, should this trade much higher prices? I just, I just don't know, right? So, um, yeah, I had a buy point here on Doge that I was interested in, um, I think there's a little bit more downside pressure. I'd rather be buying the bottom of the range and then really see that thing get on up from there and, you know, stop out below. So, you know, I'm holding from like well, 5 cents on this thing. So, you know, it's, it's been a rough ride to see this pull back, but I mean, this is a complete flyer lottery ticket for me. Um, you know, I'm not trying to get too clever with my, uh, or yeah, Doge trades. Um, Stellar, again, you can see a lot of these coins now picking it up from the bottom of the range. And so we have to then stick with what we normally would see, is that we'll— we simply just trade to the top of that range. And then we make further decisions. But the trade right now is buying the bottom of the range, selling out at the top. So middle of the range here on Stellar to the euro is spot 38 cents right here, and you can see that's quite clearly traded as a line in the sand before going up, and then, you know, on the way back down pretty much to the tick we had that really bad day there, the 18th of May, um, and then the following day where it tried to get bid on up like pretty much to the tick on the €0.38, uh, to the Stellar Lumen. So very technical stuff, very, very technical markets, boys and girls. So I, I do like Stellar. I, it's— Stellar is actually my largest weighted holding, uh, for, uh all, um, all, uh, you know, hands, uh, to be clear about that. Uh, so what else? Yeah, it's no surprise that given in the soft Bitcoin environments that if you are trading HBAR, uh, denominated in Bitcoin, well, you can see this, this is actually having a great time holding on the breakout of the range here. And, you know, should we get further downside in Bitcoin, HBAR is going to be loving that. And given the way that it's configured on a lot of the platforms to really be denominated in Bitcoin or USDT or any of these stablecoins. So I do see a lot further upside for HBAR this coming week. And yeah, I think, you know, it's going to be a week where you're going to get paid out for holding and not getting fluffed out, scared out of your trades. So, you know, that's kind of a wrap from me for the crypto for this week. If anyone else has anything they would like me to cover for next week or during midweek feel free to reach out to me in the Discord that we have, the Amplify Live Discord. I know a lot of the guys here are with me live right now in the Discord, or you can reach out to me at t.duggan@amplifytrading.com, or you can get me on Twitter @TimDugg, T-I-M-D-U-G, and yeah, I'll be more than happy to have a chat. So listen guys, for me it's a week of holding, buying more, keeping the powder dry, maybe deploying a little bit of it, uh, now, maybe, maybe a lot of it. That's entirely, uh, up to you, and I'm certainly not a financial advisor. But, um, yeah, it's going to be an interesting week to see what crypto does from the, from the selling it's had so far. So have a good week, and I look forward to seeing some of you in the Discord chat room. And, uh, yeah, be good. Cheers.