End of the bull market?

Hi guys, Eddie from the desk here in London. Obviously we're going to be talking about the coronavirus. It's pretty dominant in news headlines at the moment, you can't get away from it, and it is a serious issue. And first of all, before we kind of kick off this video, I just want to say Amplify are looking at this virus very, you know, with concerned eyes. And we are sending our prayers to anyone who is impacted by this, and we are watching this. And, um, yeah, we are taking this issue seriously. So before I start this video, I just wanted to say that first. Um, but yeah, we're going to be talking about the end of the bull market today. I hope you enjoyed the video last week. I've got some really good feedback and really positive comments, so thank you all for tuning in and leaving your comments. Definitely leave your comments down in this video if you enjoy anything, if you want any video recommendations. If you want me to look at a particular thing. I do listen to the feedback. So a few comments I took into account from the last video I'm now covering in this video. So definitely make sure you like, you like this video, comment, and definitely subscribe to the channel. I know a lot of you are actually watching this and you're not subscribed, so definitely, definitely subscribe to this channel if you don't want to miss any market-moving videos or market-moving events that we cover on the videos. You know, this can be the all-important difference. So definitely make sure you subscribe to this channel. So today we're going to be covering the year-to-date performance of the different asset classes and taking a look at 2019. So it feels like a long time ago now, 2019. This, this kind of end of bull market call comes really from Goldman Sachs and some major other US banks. So we're, you know, we're going to be analyzing all the different indicators and is this really the end of an 11-year bull market? We're going to take a look at some of the factors today. We look at the global central bank policy and their actions. So we had Christine Lagarde of the ECB and the Federal Reserve yesterday, you know, issuing their policy actions. We're going to take a look at the credit markets and some potential falling angels I'm going to discuss later. And I'm sure, unfortunately, a lot of you have been hurt by some of the market moves. I think everyone has. I saw H2O Asset Management, one of the firms in the city, lost 30% of their— well, 30% on Monday. So these professionals are losing considerable amounts of money as well. So really the point of this video at the end is going to be what to do next. Is it time to sell? Is it time to reevaluate? But I'm not going to give you financial advice. I'm not your financial advisor. But I'm just going to give you some indicators to look at from a portfolio management approach. So this has reached pandemic status now. I think it's pretty obvious that it has been. I think that— but this is now the official statement from the WHO, obviously the World Health Organization. But again, I just want to, you know, edge on the area of caution. As you know, 130,000 people have got this, but 70,000 have recovered. And this is a serious issue from the spread of the virus, but the mortality rate again is not as bad as, you know, people, you know, I think are making out to be. And it's very hard to get away from when you see all this panic buying, you know, all the financial markets down, it's always on the news. I think people just need to calm down somewhat to get away from this kind of sensationalist stuff that they're putting out in the media. It is a serious issue, but the mortality rate is over 60% in terms of— sorry, recoveries are over 60% of people that get infected. I am very concerned about our health system, particularly the elderly that are the most vulnerable. I am very concerned about that. My mum actually works for the NHS, and I know that they have been under huge stress anyway, so this kind of influx of coronavirus is going to be, you know, extremely damaging to them. And it's— I think it's worth noting that how well all of the health professionals in this country are doing on the front line, you know, not afraid to get infected just to help people. So I think that's worth noting as well. The S&P daily performance: Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft— even the big FAANG names now are down, you know, a lot. This is a bloodbath of red. Obviously the energy names being hit extremely badly, but also financials now Boeing again down a huge amount, all the airlines, cruise liners, and there's talk about bailouts for the cruise liners and airlines now at the moment coming from America, which is completely shocking. And I think all in the good times, all these companies have been levering up, taking all this cheap money, and now I think it kind of echoes the financial crisis where now in the good times, you know, they do very well, But when, you know, the bad times come and viruses expose weaknesses in the markets and with companies specifically, you know, they expect to be bailed out. So we'll obviously wait and see and watch that situation. But there is talk of that at the moment. The financials have been down quite, quite largely recently as well. The year-to-date performance, um, so still, you know, Amazon, Microsoft, they are reasonably flat on the year, um, but the obviously the energy names, again, financials, JP Morgan down 31%, Bank of America down 35%. There's— there will be opportunities, uh, in these names for sure. I think there is— my view is bearish, uh, for all, all banks at the moment from the video, uh, that I recorded last week. So if you haven't watched that check the link in description. I'll put that there. So JP Morgan, Bank of America— if you, if you want to see— I know I talked about some of the stocks that I'm watching in the last video, but if you want to see some of the levels that I'm looking at, definitely comment down below, and that can be a future video of some really attractive levels for the long term that I'm looking at for, you know, the FANGs, some of the banks, and some other stocks I'm looking at. 2019 feels like a long time ago. 2020 was meant to be the year of the election, so Donald Trump facing the presidential election. It's definitely now the year of the virus. Global growth expectations have been impacted very severely. But yeah, earnings were meant to be, you know, improving. I think EM was meant to be, you know, the trade this year. Now that's turned into a huge pain trade. We had the resolution of the trade war. The Phase 1 deal was signed, and it's obviously going to be a big boost for the economy globally and different, different countries. Um, but now, and that, that's one of the biggest worries, I think. When people were heading into the year, they were, you know, reasonably optimistic as a result of that Phase 1 deal. And I think people will be light on their hedging. And as a result, like you saw, the biggest asset class performance last year, crude oil, up 34%, the best performing asset Crude oil was down 30%, you know, last Monday, right? So that just shows you how many gains from 2019 have just been completely wiped out. US stocks up 31%. Small caps are getting hit hugely. These small to medium-sized enterprises like the Russell 2000 in the US getting hit, you know. Canadian stocks have, you know, even fallen below that 2018 sell-off that we saw, you know, across all, uh, equity indices. Fear is driving financial markets. So this is a Fear and Greed Index coming from CNN, and you can see— and really what I want you to focus on, uh, is this one month ago that greed was driving financial markets. So that's how people were positioned, uh, in their portfolios, in their kind of, uh, short-term positions, their more tactical plays. Now extreme fear Extreme fear one week ago. So fear is definitely, definitely driving financial markets, and you see this with the panic, panic buying and stuff in supermarkets that you see all over social media. Bitcoin falls out of bed. This is kind of addressing a comment I saw in the previous video, and thanks for that comment. I thought Bitcoin was meant to be the safe haven, this digital gold. It, you know, there's been a crypto rout. I think, well, everything's been falling. I think there's almost nowhere to hide at the moment, but you know, Bitcoin was down 20% today. And this is not an asset class we trade or analyze at Amplify, but I saw this and, God, down 20% in one day. So if you look— if you liked Bitcoin at $8,000, you're gonna like it a lot more at $6,000 if you are a crypto trader or investor. And so does gold. So gold fell out of bed yesterday as well. And gold is meant to be the safe haven asset that's done extremely well over the last 18 months, really. But it was down 3% yesterday. And this, you know, huge move just in a couple of minutes. I think the thought from the desk was that someone basically dumped $16 billion in nominal terms of gold. And I think it was 100,000 contracts, futures contracts of gold. And the price just saw this wicked move downwards. So really, there is almost nowhere to hide. At the moment. The FTSE, we can't go, uh, without talking about this. FTSE was down 10% and this was the biggest drawdown since 1987. The German DAX was down around 13%. The FTSE MIB, uh, in Italy was down about 17% as well. All the European indices were down huge, double digits. Deutsche Bank was down 18%. I saw they have had a bit of a rebound this morning, so I can see the FTSE is up 4%. DAX up 3%, Euro Stoxx up 3.4%, S&P futures up 4%. But it really was a terrible day for financial markets yesterday, not since 1987. It's crazy to see it. It really was history in the making. But again, everything, everything else as well. So this is the MSCI World Index, and it's now trading at more than 20% below its peak, peak to trough. And I did— and this was meant to be the trade this year, you know, global, global growth expectations were meant to rebound this year, earnings were meant to improve. So imagine how many people were positioned on the flip side of this and how much pain they would be facing now. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, I think a really, you know, worthwhile thing of saying is that when people start whipping out the longer-term charts, I think that's definitely a sign of caution. But as you can see, you know, since this, you know, this chart started in 1900s, 1999, you can see that, you know, there has been huge wealth creation. And this is looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average. But you can see how little this sell-off really is in the context of things. But I think when people start whipping out longer-term charts, that's when, you know, people are really quite scared. And this is a log chart, just to let you know. So let's get down into the actual crux of the video. So this actually comes as a result of Goldman, but also Bank of America. So they cut their global growth forecasts, indicating that the bull market is over. Their old 2020 forecast for global growth was sitting at 2.8% GDP, and now the new one is 2.2%. And they've also outlined their kind of recessionary scenario where global growth is actually cut in half. And this is obviously looking at China, 5.2% was their previous forecast, down to 3.2%. Global growth ex-China— so that obviously they're factoring in that this, this virus is going to spread— 2.2%, uh, down to 0.8%. So Bank of America coming out with some really bearish calls, uh, here, revising their forecasts. Um, the S&P 500, uh, as a result of Goldman's call, they believe that there's a 15%, you know, downside scenario here. Um, they're signaling— and, you know, major strategists came out of Goldman saying that the bull market is indeed over. Um, there is a year-end target of 11%, but they revise their median midterm forecast down to 2450. Um, so that's 15% below, uh, where we are at the moment, probably 10% now after— as a result of yesterday's movements, but we are seeing a rebound in S&P futures today, up about 4%. But this just shows you how Goldman Sachs and all the big banks are, you know, indicating that this bull market is over. I was listening to Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley, a really good guy to listen to. He's the chief equity strategist, so definitely listen to him. He's actually been saying that his equity strategy has been very very defensive for the last 2 years. And he's been, you know, positioned more into those sectors like utilities, for example, and those defensive tech sectors that I talked about in the previous video. But he's been positioning his strategy towards those for the last 2 years. And obviously, it seems to be the right call. But really, we're seeing all sectors kind of sell off at the moment, which is, you know, I think this is a function definitely of the behavioral side of financial markets, where everyone is just seeing the sensationalist stuff in the media and the, and the BBC News, for example. You can't turn on the news without seeing it, and they are just panic selling at the moment. So I think it is— this move is hugely behavioral. And this chart basically just indicates the, the probability of a recession within 12 months. So these, this hopes of a V-shaped recovery have been dashed And this is actually as a result of previous viruses and the actual rebound, the V-shaped rebound as a result of those viruses. And now it's looking more of a kind of U-shaped, if you want to call it that. A longer term, I think by the summer we will be looking, you know, more favorable at this situation. But for now, I think in the near term, it is going to get worse before it spreads into, you know, it spread obviously into Germany and Italy. I think we are yet to see it really dominate headlines and stuff in the UK and US, and I think there will be some more pain in the short term as of when, when we start to see those headlines. But the probability of recession within 12 months has jumped to 55% as a result of this virus exposing— again, this is the key point— exposing previous weaknesses that we've already seen in corporations, uh, in the kind of markets. But again, P/E ratios are still above their historical averages, which is, you know, hard to believe, right? Even after the drop, the valuation of US stocks remains above the historical average. So you can see it's trading at a P/E ratio of 16 after the peak of the, obviously, the dot-com bubble. But P/E's were, you know, we saw huge multiple expansion last year, and I think obviously you know, there's been severe compression as a result of the virus exposing these things. But I think again, from the previous video, the real risk is if— and I think it's inevitable now— if these earnings, so the denominator in this P/E ratio, start to be revised downwards, then we're going to see some real carnage in markets. This is a form of relative valuation, so relative rather than an absolute valuation like a discounted cash flow. But it's still above their 5 and 10 averages. But obviously, the risk is to the downside. So for, for more multiple compression, and the credit markets are flashing warning signals. So this is a look at the CDX index. So this is essentially an index of credit swap, credit default swaps. So this is a financial swap agreement that the seller of the CDS essentially compensates the buyer in the event of a debt default or an adverse credit kind of event. And this is, you know, investors use these for a multitude of purposes. So for example, speculation. So if you, if you see that obviously credit markets and corporations like I've been talking about, as a result of this financial leverage, you know, if you see an opportunity in credit defaults or adverse credit events, you know, occurring, then you're going to want to obviously speculate on this kind of CDX index. But this is also used as a hedge. For portfolios. You know, you can hedge the underlying bonds in your portfolio if you do see that obviously decline in bond price, up in yields, obviously due to this credit deterioration that I obviously will look at now and talked about in the previous video. Um, but the, the reason people use these are they are standardized, so they are exchange traded, um, they're more liquid, more transparent, so you can see the, to see the assets CDSs normally trade over the counter, so they normally have, you know, they're more specialized. This is more standardized, and you'll tend to see more liquidity in this market, therefore tighter spreads, and is obviously cheaper than buying the single CDS and then combining all these, you know, different compartments of the CDX to form this, uh, you know, full index. So this is a— um, the credit markets are flashing warning signs. So we saw The spread on US high-grade CDS indexes, so the CDX, you know, that surged the most since the Lehman crisis, all the way up to 130, which obviously is definitely a warning sign. And I think if you look at the credit markets, they are flashing, you know, red. And this is definitely a thing if you're an equity investor to be looking at. And this is just really an emphasis of the era of cheap money. And this is a long-term chart. of US interest rates. So you can see, uh, they were, you know, 6% before the crisis, and obviously we saw global synchronized easing as a result of that financial crisis. Them stay on hold until pretty much 2016, and you just see the, like, magnitude of these little steps— 25 basis points, 25 basis points— and they just completely, uh, unraveled all of this, um, you know, to— and we are, I think, now heading to zero, definitely, like I talked about in the previous video, heading to zero in US rates. But you can see how long this has taken, just little steps. You know, the market's been extremely sensitive to any tightening of financial conditions, and now they'll look back, I think, at 2018, Q4 2018, at the tightening of that, you know, that monetary policy as a huge mistake. But financial markets really force them into that state of, you know, if you tighten, we're going to sell off. And then obviously when equity indices and financial conditions will organically tighten, when you see that kind of fear in the market of that selling. So this is really just an era of this cheap money, these low interest rates where corporations have just borrowed and borrowed and borrowed, you know, really with— to to feed buybacks, and just to expand their businesses and lever up, just really with kind of no fear of actually ever— I don't want to say paying it back, but without any— with rates actually going up. And you can see this in the debt-to-EBITDA ratios, and it's the highest in 20 years. So this is just the debt divided by the divided by the earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation, uh, depreciation and amortization. Um, so this is the debt leverage. So the higher the ratio, the more levered companies are, um, and the less likely they are be able to cover those interest payments and that debt, um, with those earnings, um, before interest, tax, and depreciation. So really worrying metric to look at. Uh, and this is obviously, um, the scale of credit, uh, quality and credit rating. So I actually used to work for S&P the world's largest credit rating. So I'm actually going to be biased and look at the credit rating scale from S&P. As you can see, the highest credit quality here is the AAA. Obviously, the lowest level of credit risk, the more likely they are to pay back their debt. So the safest investments, if you want to, want to call it that. And as you go down to scale, the credit risk of these companies starts to deteriorate. So there's a higher probability of default. Um, so there's a higher credit risk, less likely, uh, there will be that these corporations will actually repay their debt. And obviously you do get a higher yield, and this is why anything below BB- is called speculative grade, high yield, junk. So you do get that higher yield to compensate yourself or any investors for that added risk that you're taking on. So this is the rating scale if you've never seen one before. But what I want to emphasize is there's $2 trillion in BBB- debt. So this is the one level, or the one notch if you want to call it that, above junk. So this is sitting here in the investment-grade setting. There's $2 trillion of this debt. There's $600 billion in BBB energy debt. So this is really what I want to stress to you is that corporations have levered up so much in this era of cheap money, there's a real chance now of these credit ratings either dropping or being put on watch negative. So Royal Caribbean was one that S&P put on credit watch negative. So this is— the probability has increased of them being downgraded to a, to a later notch. And this is what we call a falling angel. So this is— a falling angel is one where a corporation falls from investment grade all down to high yield or junk. So I think there's a real risk of that now. And this energy debt has led to sell-off obviously across high-yield bonds. The yield to energy has reached its highest level since early 2016, and $27 billion of US oil and gas bonds actually come due this year. So as a result of this kind of adverse demand shocks and indeed supply shocks, um, this is going to obviously adversely affect all these corporations, their ability to repay their interest payments and their debt as a result of the temporary demand shocks impacting their profitability, their revenues. And $27 billion of this oil and gas actually comes due this year. So what's going to happen with that, right? So I think there's a severe risk of these falling angels being, uh, so these investment-grade companies sitting in this kind of pocket being downgraded. And Moody's actually have come out, um, saying that high yield defaults may rise to 9.7%, so 10% during a worst case scenario, and it's currently sitting at 3.6%. Um, so this is definitely, uh, something that I think you will see in the coming weeks or months of these kind of, uh, investment grade names sitting on this BBB minus, uh, notch falling down to this high yield and junk. And obviously when this happens, this, uh, is a really negative signal for equity investors, and you'll see very adverse price movements, um, in, in, in the share prices of these companies. And you've seen, um, some oil names, uh, already being put on credit watch negative or downgraded. And this is from my LinkedIn post. So this is my bearish view on financials. So I got asked in the, in the previous video, uh, in terms of the UK banks, but I think my view is really the same. And this was a LinkedIn post I did, like I said, oil experienced a 30% drop down to $30 a barrel on Monday. And it's actually reported that Bank of America and some other US banks have been hit hard. And this is coming from data coming from the KBW. So this is data that covers kind of banks and they have significant exposure to the energy sector. So think of banks, obviously, you obviously hear about them being investment banks. They're also obviously lending facilities, right? So if you've lent, and you know, a huge amount of them have, to these energy names that, going back to my previous slide, if they're going to be downgraded to credit watch negative or downgraded in terms of into high yield, this is going to put the banks at huge risk, right? They've got huge exposure, over 10%, to the energy sector. So Deutsche Bank and Bank of America obviously was hit quite hard, and some of the mid-sized US banks as as well. Deutsche Bank is down 50% in the last month, 30% in the last 5 days. So Euro Stoxx banks index is trading at all-time lows. Rates are heading down. There's going to be suppressed capital markets activity. And what I mean by that is the equity capital markets, the debt capital markets of these investment banks, the M&A activity. You know, no one's going to want to deal in this environment. You're not going to want to see— you're not going to want to IPO into this type of environment. And this is something that I actually train on equity capital markets. So the kind of the behavioral instinct of IPOing into this type of environment is going to be something that corporations aren't going to want to do. And I think I saw Airbnb, this was meant to be the big IPO this year. Their bookings have severely, you know, gone down as a result of the kind of travel restrictions that, you know, no one's traveling, no one's going to all these different locations worldwide. And now their IPO is at severe risk. So all these banks are going to be impacted by this suppressed capital markets activity, this reported energy exposure again. And this is another call from Goldman Sachs saying that they face €34 billion, a risk, or a European bank faces a risk of that hit. So my actual title of this piece was, you know, when things move quickly, they bend and then they eventually break. So what's going to break? And I think we're seeing some cracks appear now. And I want to kind of, on the flip side of this, this is not like the financial crisis, you know, this is not that bad yet, but definitely something to be looking at. And I know I'm listening to some, you know, some of the older guys— I don't want to call them older guys, but the more experienced guys that have seen the financial crisis— and they're saying it doesn't feel like that. But I think if we do see more downside, I think it could, you know, could definitely spell trouble. And this is just following on the flow of the probability of default. This is a metric you would look at in credit analytics or credit analysis. So Deutsche Bank share price, obviously, like we just talked about, you know, down to $4, and their 5-year default probability has spiked as a result. So this really is a really nice graphic following on from the previous points that I've mentioned. The one positive for banks, so Refinancing. So this is to do with mortgages, for example. So refi activity was up 480% year on year. So this is, uh, coming from the United States. So US mortgage refinancing has surged, um, to the most since, uh, 2008. And this is as a result of this, uh, easing from monetary policy, uh, from the banks where they've lowered interest rates. This obviously makes mortgages cheaper, but only if you're on a floating rate mortgage, right? If you're on a fixed rate mortgage, this is no good news for you, uh, unfortunately. And there was a stat that 75% of mortgages, I think in the United States, are on a fixed-term mortgage. But I just want to show you the kind of the impact of this if you do refinance is that you could save about $275 per month on a 30-year loan. And this implies a saving of $3.5 billion a month in payments or $42 billion a year for the US economy. right? So that comes out to 0.2% of US GDP. So I think this is the, the one kind of bull case for the banks is this refining activity will be up. So 480% year on year, which is quite a considerable number, and there will be buying opportunities. So this is just an insight into some of the levels I'm looking at for JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley. I think for a long-term hold, you know, I don't want to say that they're going to be around God, I think people got hit very hard when they said that Lehman's, you know, is not going to default, is not going to not ever be there. But JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley would be my, you know, big bets, I think, from the banking sector. Bank of America as well. And I think $60 and $24 for those shares look attractive levels for me for a long-term hold. And I actually wrote this, uh, this slide when I was doing this deck on Thursday or Wednesday. And the ECB joins the virus fight. So they've obviously— Christine Lagarde had her press conference yesterday, and she actually had a really bad day at the office from the market's perspective. She said, we're not here to close spreads. And then you saw BTPs sell off dramatically, which was, I think, a mistake from her. She did look a little bit out of her depth. But she has— so they didn't cut the deposit rate. down to 50, negative 50 basis points, the ECB. But they did, uh, provide additional long-term financing and loans, uh, for banks to provide this immediate liquidity. And this is something I've been talking about. Um, the key is the availability of credit and financing for these small to medium-sized enterprises. And I think this was definitely the right reaction, or this is definitely the right route to go. Cutting interest rates, you know, I don't think anyone's going to care about a 10 basis points cut in the ECB interest rate, right? Same with the Federal Reserve. The coronavirus, just because you make money cheaper, isn't gonna make people travel, you know, isn't gonna provide liquidity to the financial markets or to small to medium-sized enterprises to withstand these temporary demand shocks. They've obviously outlined their more favorable terms for the targeted loan program and an additional €120 billion asset purchases focused on the private sector. And I actually let— when I wrote this deck, uh, Fed to Join, I had a laugh with Will, um, that, you know, we saw a big rebound in equity indices futures. Why? Because the Fed have actually announced $1.5 trillion in repo, um, so easing. So this is QE now. I also did, um, uh, basically a post months ago that their asset you know, the balance sheet of the federal bank, Federal Reserve, has been increasing quite dramatically. And they're calling it not QE. You know, this is definitely QE. So what they've done is essentially provided liquidity to the market, and they've basically allowed for $1.5 trillion in the repo market, 3-month repo market. So this is going to ease liquidity conditions and financial conditions. And I saw a lot of graphics saying that, you know, there was severe stress in the Treasury market. This is the US Treasury market. And I think that's exactly why the Federal Reserve have stepped in as a result of that, because this is the US government, right? You know, they have the lowest probability of default out of anyone. So if there is stress in the biggest, you know, most liquid market, the Treasury market, then the Fed obviously had to step in and provide that liquidity. But they've got a real problem now and long-term inflation expectations. So this is the market-derived inflation expectations. And this is by 5-year, 5-year swaps. So what's the 5-year, um, what's the 5-year inflation outlook in 5 years' time? And they've both hit record lows. So I think there is that threat, uh, and this is a call I've been having for a while, um, this threat of Japanification, um, the negative interest rates in the US, the interest rate differentials across the world. I think this one was inevitable, and I think they've had a real battle with stimulating inflation, and now they've got a real risk of disinflation, so slowing inflation and deflation as a result of this action. So the 5-year, 5-year swaps, both USD and Europe, have hit record lows. And this is the Fed pricing for Fed rates, and I think it's just unbelievable when you look at this chart and how it's progressed. And obviously I look at this quite a lot, but this is the target rate probabilities um, for the 29th of April. So they've got a— the Federal Reserve have a meeting in March, um, and this is the probability for April. You know, 0% rates are 50% priced in now for April, um, from 75 basis points. And we hit a high of 225 basis points. It's just unbelievable to see that zero on the chart. I mean, I spoke with Anthony Cheung about this. It's just crazy to see. Um, but now the markets are now putting them in this kind of situation where they're going to need to do this. Because if the market's priced, you know, more loosely than the federal funds rate is, then that's going to be an artificial tightening of financial conditions. So this is the same scenario they were in as a result of the previous emergency cut. I wrote that, that post saying that they have to cut now and cut hard. And I think this was the markets putting their, you know, their hand behind their back and forcing them into this. And this is exactly, you know, exactly the same. So I'm sure there is some pain in markets, but I think from a portfolio management perspective, I need to go through a few things of what to do now. And I think the key is don't panic. The mood music is blue right now. And, you know, it is an extremely stressful time if you're an investor or even if you're just a normal individual. But focus on the long term. This is obviously dependent on your time horizon, right? So this is some portfolio management kind of things that I want you to look at. And I'm not your financial advisor. You should definitely consult them, obviously, for your own individual condition. But this is some important factors to consider. So you need to assess your time horizon, right? Are you a long-term investor? You know, what age are you? What are you investing for? You know, if you are at the end of your retirement, that's going to be you know, or your working life for retirement, that's going to put you in a, you know, a less favorable position for risk assets, right? Because you're going to need that, you know, those funds later, you know, very soon. Whereas a long-term investor from the age range of, let's say, 25 to 30, for example, you know, you're not going to need those funds for 40, 50 years. So definitely take a look at your time horizon. What are your liquidity needs? What do you need these funds for? What are you investing for? Is it for your kids to go to school? Is it for almost speculative money just to earn a bit of side income? You need to look at your liquidity needs. What drawdowns are you going to need for the near term, for the longer term? What's your financial situation? So a lot of times it's not your willingness to invest or for risk, it's your abilities. So you need to look at your financial situation, your salary, your other assets that you have. You know, is it— is this risk that you should be taking? Or are you, you know, are you looking at your portfolio, your positions every minute? And chances are, if you're doing that, then you've got too much risk on the table. So you definitely look at your financial situation, your psychology. And I think, I think it's coming from financial media commentators they're saying don't panic, don't sell. But really, I know a lot of people have experienced drawdowns in their portfolio as whole assets have been selling off. And if you are getting to the point where, you know, you just want out, you know, it's too much to handle, this kind of negative connotation, this psychology of this kind of dark cloud can loom over you, over you when you look at your portfolio every day. And it's, you know, there's more and more down you know, drawdowns, and you're just seeing it fall and fall and fall, um, it can be tough to take, um, psychologically. You need to assess your investment goals like I talked about, your risk tolerance, uh, and what assets do you buy next. I mean, I'd say definitely a defensive portfolio is sensible for the, the short term, but like we saw, I think gold fell, and what we're seeing is gold take these whips you know, wicked moves downwards. And this is as a result of it being a safe haven status, and it's done very well over, you know, the last 18 months or so. But people are now experiencing margin calls, um, from their equity positions. So they're now selling these gold positions, and this is why you're seeing negative ticks in the, in the gold price, um, where people are covering their margin calls with these winning positions. Um, so definitely review your asset allocation both strategic and tactical. Tactical being near-term, so how you tactically positioning your portfolio, and then more strategically for the 20-year, 30 years. But if you just want to think back to that Dow chart I showed you, there's been a huge amount of wealth creation, uh, you know, over the last 100 years. So in the long term, some of the names, for example, like JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, you, you would expect, you know, to to rebound. And once this virus does pass, and it will pass, fingers crossed, in, you know, sooner rather than later, we will see a rebound. So if you've got the stomach, you know, to put some cash to work now, then for the long term, and this is not a short-term play, then definitely that would be a sensible thing to do. But I just want to talk about also the coronavirus and its impact Obviously Amplify do offer remote training, um, both for students— if you're a student watching this, welcome, um, if you're a trader as well, we obviously do offer online programs, um, so we are moving our summer internship dates, uh, online as well. So we're giving you, you the option of remote training, uh, and what this summer internship training does is it essentially rotates you through all the different roles of finance. So obviously we're talking about global markets now and trading, but we also cover things like equity research, universal banking. So you're looking at credit, M&A, equity capital markets through our IPO simulation, and indeed sales and trading. So if you're looking to get experience and let's say your spring week has been cancelled like I've seen a few have, or you're not— you haven't got any plans for summer, come and join us either in-house. And we do expect that the situation to be a lot more favorable then, and we've definitely kept that view. But we have also now made the option for you to access it remotely, and we are fully equipped to deal with that remote training. So I remember last Friday, Will, our managing director, ran a session for Credit Suisse and Bocconi purely online. So if you're interested in getting that experience, definitely, definitely inquire now on the website. I'll leave my email address down in the comment section below. Feel free to contact me regarding any of this. If you are a more experienced professional, we do have online options, and this is different to the student side. So if you're a student, definitely, definitely go for the summer internship training program. If you're a, if you're a trader, a seasoned professional, so let's say you've worked in law oil and gas, or you want to trade your own funds professionally, um, and for, you know, for a living, we have incredible content delivered by our directors, uh, expertise and indicators. For example, like I've been through, uh, in this session, our directors have a combined financial market experience, uh, of analysis and trading of a combined 50 years. So this content is incredible. Uh, it's a rolling subscription of £200 a month. Uh, so definitely take that out, and I'll put the link to the trader side, um, down there. But again, if you're a student, this is more suitable for you. We do cover global markets, asset management, portfolio management, equity capital markets, debt capital markets, M&A, private equity, real estate, uh, technology and finance, or an introduction to algorithmic coding— all the skills necessary for you to land the top role in finance. So definitely check that out, and that is Amplify amplifytrading.com/students. I'll leave a link in the comments section. And for the traders, amplifytrading.com/traders. So like, comment, subscribe, definitely, if you enjoyed this video. It's been a pleasure to speak to you today. Turn on your post notifications, subscribe, let me know what you want to see. Again, like I said, I did action the comments you said, and thank you so much for leaving your comments. There's been such a positive reaction to the videos. If you want, you know, some other video ideas that you want me to do, if you want some stocks on my watchlist like I give you a little insight into JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley earlier, just let me know. Leave it in the comments section below. But again, if you've not subscribed to this channel, definitely subscribe. But thank you. Good luck with your trading. You know, wash your hands. Let's all keep safe. But I'll see you next week.