Face Brexit delay or accept my deal

Okay, very good morning. I hope everyone is well. Thursday, 14th of March. Obviously quite a few things to get you up to speed on, including that, of course, of the latest update on, on Brexit, of course. But we've had a few other developments, a bit of an update with Donald Trump last night, a few comments to be aware of. There's some oil-specific comments as well that are quite interesting that have come out, one in regard to Iran and sanctions from the US and the other in respect to Saudi Arabia and their plans or intentions for potential extension of production cuts. Comes as oil now is trading at multi-month highs again, and we'll have a look at that in a second. And then we'll have a look at the calendar and what's to come for the session ahead. But kind of, I guess, kicking things off and Well, let's just quickly flip over to the chart before we start looking in more detail to the actual stories and where we are and where we're heading now with Brexit. So here's the, uh, the cable chart from yesterday. I mean, this is the last— this is a week in the world of, of the pound and Brexit, and you know, it's been quite a roller coaster from Monday night, the jump, gap higher, move up that we had after May got that kind of last-minute concession. However, not enough to get the legal kind of backing from the Attorney General and therefore net the support of various different more Brexiteer-minded MPs, and we shot lower. We then kind of built in this expectation, ultimately rising prospects that Article 50 is going to be extended. And then you had what happened last night, which was here. Now, one thing I would say about last night was there were two amendments. Amendment A, which was the Spellman one, and F, they're called. They have different initials to the ones that get chosen then by the Speaker. And F was the Malthouse one. And then you had the government's motion. The one thing that happened was the Amendment A actually went through, and that wasn't expected to happen. And we'll get into the details of some of that, but essentially meaning that Parliament voted to avoid an economically disastrous no-deal split from the European Union, uh, and kind of opening the doors to potential Brexit delays. That was at the time perceived— then it was a very narrow kind of victory of that going through, and it came right at the point where technically we were right up testing that R1 level in yesterday's pivots, which lined up with the morning high from two days— or the day prior would have been And I remember Will was here, he managed to get kind of, uh, in an aggressive move, albeit, but aggressive entry on the break of that. And then we kind of accelerated and moved up. It was a quick kind of 35-pip move or so, and then managed to, uh, enter with some size and then managed to scale out pretty quick. And absolutely, in that type of situation when it's highly volatile, it is quite messy because it's very, very confusing actually what's going on. When it gets to these kind of legal details. And yeah, booked that trade and that was out. And the actual following move that came didn't come into actually much later. This was probably about, I would say, a good 30-40 minutes after the main action had kind of finished. But then you can see the pound, as people became more of the opinion that ultimately it's kind of— you either do one of two things, and we'll discuss this in a second. You either accept now May's deal and you have an orderly Brexit, I think the risk of no deal— I mean, even though technically it's actually still possible here if the EU don't come back and approve with concrete answer of why were they granting this extension, the no deal can still happen. But the point being then is, does Parliament take control? Do we go down these other routes? It's either, you know, deal or something softer. And so either way then, it's kind of pound positive in that sense. And probably the breach then of the, uh, the weekly high, the high print that we had that late Monday when electronic trade here in the futures was reopening after that Salzburg last-minute deal from May. We broke that. You can see a very quick move up, nearly a full point, before just reverting back down. And you can see technically how this has played out. The pullback has come back down to that same you know, level here of what we were looking at from before. So that point, that point, that was the trade where Will had yesterday on the break, came back down to that level, and it's moved back higher again this morning. So yeah, one thing I would say, and I'm going to go into the details of what exactly this Brexit situation was last night, but it was very complicated, um, and it's going to become probably increasingly so. So What I'll do is I'll run through a very short review of what's happened and then put it into more kind of conclusion terminology, if you like, of what exactly this does mean. So Theresa May has issued now a final ultimatum basically to Eurosceptic MPs last night, telling them to back her EU divorce deal with Brussels next week or face months-long Brexit delay. This is 100% now going to be the tactic of the UK government and Theresa May. It's, "You don't have a choice now, you need to take my deal." And that's what a lot of the news and tweets and information is pertaining to this morning, is about how far or how close are we to getting to that point. Now, to recap, she obviously suffered another defeat in Parliament last night with a majority of MPs defying her her wishes by voting to take a no-deal exit off the table permanently. That was that amendment vote, which again wasn't expected to have gone through. Mrs. May's decision to hold a third vote now on her Brexit plan next week, just days before she's due to attend that EU summit in Brussels, which front-runs a few days before the eventual Article 50 deadline on March 29th. So yeah, Meaningful Vote 3, or MV3 they're terming it in the press and on Twitter, is looking like that's going to happen next week, and that's going to be a real definitive one now. I know we've said this almost every time, but you know, that is very much the end of the road. There's not much more to go now, and that's the kind of way forward. Theresa May said that if a deal was not agreed by MPs before March 21st EU summit, i.e., next week essentially, she would be forced to seek a much longer extension of the exit process, requiring Britain to take part in European Parliament elections in May. The move infuriated Tory Eurosceptics after last night's vote. They're feeling now under extreme pressure to support May's deal. One of the ERG members was quoted as saying, the only way out now for us Eurosceptics is to support the Prime Minister's deal. In an unexpected challenge to Mrs. May's authority, 4 members of her own cabinet broke ranks and abstained in defiance of the party whip on Wednesday evening. Those people, though, have been spared kind of being fired, if you like, for the moment. The government's own motion had sought to reject the no-deal option only for March while keeping it on the table in the long term. This one is a little bit more definitive. So if anything, you could say this plays into Theresa May's hands because it makes it all the more decisive for the likes of the ERG, is now you've gotta get on board, otherwise there's gonna be no Brexit as far as Theresa May is going to say from here on out. So, yeah, that was kind of what happened yesterday, I think. Talking to Piers this morning, he is very strongly of the belief that come MV3 next week, the deal is going to get done. He's been of that stance for a number of weeks, that ultimately when push comes to shove, they've got to swallow the deal, essentially on the fear then that not doing so might lead down the, the most opposite route, which would absolutely be one of which the Brexiteers would be most angry about, and that would be the opening the door to potential avenue of a second referendum, which could lead to other things— general election and ultimately a no Brexit— and they would not want that to happen. Farage, I saw, of course tends to be quite quiet until events like this start to unfold. He said this morning "It's a betrayal of Brexit, one of the most shameful chapters in British history." And that actually helps Theresa May because she is at this point saying, "Look, I've done what you wanted. I've secured a deal." You know, no one's really looking now about the quality of that deal. It's now, "Well, do you want Brexit to happen or not?" kind of situation. And obviously the MPs, although they're going to vote probably slightly different considering their, uh, their kind of weight towards more the economic impact ultimately as well, they do have to keep in mind that they have to manage public perception, which of course would be extreme anger if the, the kind of vote is not followed through. All right, a few other things to be aware of on this subject. Beth Rigby Excellent. Deputy political editor of Sky News, she's been talking this morning. Philip Hammond's been quoted a few times. He said, don't expect any sackings. This is in reference to the fact that, yeah, a couple of people defied the whips, which is extremely uncommon. Warns that Brexiteers, that the House of Commons takes control outcome will be much less to their taste than May's deal. So now comes the PR assault to try and get the ERG to fall in line. The DUP have also said to be considering the government's deal, and obviously that's contingent, absolutely a necessity for the deal to get over the line. I think the DUP will, will continue to do so. Hammond though, the one thing out of these three points that is slightly different is that Hammond says backs indicative votes, would have to explore options for MPs to express their view. Now that one I'm sure Theresa May didn't sign off because that one's basically saying having indicative votes ahead of the MV3 next week means that, okay, indicative vote will be, well, how about we have a second referendum? Or how about we think about a Norway-style renegotiation with a long extension period? All these different types of things. And this is watering down that leverage, if you like, of trying to force people's backs against the wall to to support the deal. So Hammond, of course, is the Chancellor. He's always been a reluctant supporter of Theresa May because we know that he puts greatest weighting on the, the economic consequences of the risk of a no deal. So he's always been much more aligned, if you like, of a softer Brexit. So it's not that surprising, but interesting nonetheless. Paul Brand, the political correspondent of the ITV, absolutely excellent updating on the situation, he said the Chancellor has said lawyers are coming out with more reflections on the PM's deal and the Attorney General may want to consider what they're saying, i.e., he could update his legal advice to get the PM's deal across the line. I find that incredibly hard to believe. So you're telling me now that put a little bit of pressure on Geoffrey Cox and all of a sudden all of a sudden he's going to reverse what he initially said without any actual factual changes? I think that's a bit of a push. But, you know, interesting nonetheless. What he says carries great weight. If he did make a bit of a U-turn and actually, upon reflection and more advice, say that actually he puts his weight and support behind the PM's deal, that it does satisfy his requirements about the Northern Irish backstop, well then that would be a game changer for her deal going through. And then Paul Brand's also updated. A member of the ERG confirms to him that they've shown a draft of the Attorney General's new legal advice last night. It is built around Jacob Rees-Mogg's suggestion of using Article 62 of the Vienna Convention, which lays out how a country can unilaterally terminate an agreement. Now, on that point of Article 62 I mean, this is— the Vienna Convention is a very top-level one, of which gives, let's say, more flexibility, and I think Europe would absolutely not support in that sense. So for me, this is a bit of a non-starter, in my opinion. But I'm, you know, I'm no legal expert, but just from what I've read in recent week or so. The other interesting thing that I've had is this. I read this in Bloomberg this morning, um, and I absolutely disagree. I mean, I just looked at the data and I thought, why would you— why would you want to be short? I really can't see why you'd want to be short at this point, because as what I'm saying is, is that most of these routes— I mean, there is an extreme tail risk here. What if— because what happens here is, even though the vote last night effectively means that they voted to take no-deal exit off the table permanently, that is contingent that we then go to Europe with a definitive plan for different scenarios, for them, them to agree to the extension based on, on something. Whether it's going to be a new referendum, whether it's going to be a new general election, whether it's going to be new negotiated Norway style, whether it's going to be managing the process of a no deal. We cannot just say we want an extension. If we don't go with something definitive, and then if Europe do not agree unanimously, all 27 states, then we have a no deal. Now there is a possibility of that, of course, And if that happens, well, the pound's going to tank on the back of that, because that's certainly not what's priced in. If anything, remember, cable has been rallying because it's pricing in the diminishing prospects of that happening. What we've been talking about from the beginning is the fact that it's looking more and more likely that Theresa May might just pull this off through no choice but to back it, in that sense. And if you look at where cable is at the moment, It's a very interesting level. I mean, I'll leave the charts more to Sam, but, you know, we're right up here now at an interesting point where I think we've gone from rallying since the beginning of the year from a 126 handle to a 133 handle. That to me does not signal a market where people are panicking or people are siding on the fact that they want to be short and that we're going to have a no deal. Quite the opposite. I guess when you read these types of headlines, you've got to take into consideration who's quote— who's being quoted here. And you know, it does tend to be spread bettors that obviously will, you know, when the market's going up, they'll say everyone's short. When the market's going down, they'll say everyone's long, and so on. They do quote, uh, Citi though for the FX positioning report. And what you have here is you can see the city positioning, the shorts increasing as the pound's been going up. Yeah, I'm not sure if I would trust that, to be honest. I thought I'd just mention nonetheless. All right, well, look, that's the pound. I'll leave Sam to go into his thoughts from a technical perspective, any further follow-through. But at the moment, the pound's still holding on to gains. And if anything, I don't really see too much at this point. Suggest an extreme pullback. If anything, I'd say there's probably pretty decent support on the, on the other side for the time being. All right, quick look elsewhere. This was something which I was briefly discussing last night, and this was the fact I was looking at the VIX, the S&P 500 index volatility gauge, now the lowest in several months. What's been quite interesting, obviously we've had this very aggressive bounce in, in equity markets. Of course, the S&P's come kind of raging back after that real hit, the technical correction that we had at the end of last year. Let me just switch over the charts. So obviously that trend line that we were looking at, the, you know, prices kind of felt a little fatigued after such an incredible recovery, but now we've bounced back, and we're kind of targeting up around that initial high. Some markups is what we're looking at yesterday. So, you know, things like the reassurance from the Fed this week from an inflationary perspective— we've had relatively benign inflationary conditions, which kind of supports the narrative that the Fed are right to pause. And if that is the case, then, you know, that kind of adds a degree of relief to markets which were highly sensitive relative to policy tightening at the end of last year. And then we've got the China-US trade talks seemingly progressing, but there is an update on that I'll get to in a second. And all these things have kind of totally turned around what was the kind of flared episode of market volatility, which was at its most extreme, if you remember, right over Christmas. That was when we hit the rock bottom of 2018 price action on Boxing Day. That really illiquid point of the year is when the candles, you know, the wicks were massive because of that, and we hit that initial low. But since that point and since the turn from the Fed— and I think, you know, if you think about monetary policy, there's been quite aggressive action that's been taken. If we go back to the S&P chart, since the beginning of the year you've had OPEC now kind of stabilize the oil market market with commitments to doing production cuts. You've had the Fed becoming dovish. You've had some progression on the trade war, kind of a de-escalation, if you like, of that situation. And then you've had also China come in quite heavy-handed on both the government and PBOC level to try and mitigate the downturn. Now, monetary policy tends to have a lagging impact in that sense. And so are we just seeing this transition now into Q2 where growth prospects are still weak, but that kind of catastrophic thoughts that we had that kind of capitulated at the end of last year, has that now passed? And as monetary policy starts to filter in, you know, it kind of mitigates the need for this volatility going forward. And so upside, yeah, definitely if we can get above just where we are at the moment, I do think that that brings up these higher bound levels of 128.65 for sure in a medium kind of long term that could be quite interesting. The big risks here, of course, are one is the trade war. Now, the trade war has gone a little bit quiet of late, and this was actually a comment that came out last night that did cause— I mean, this was— let me zoom back. This was the S&P for the month of March, and yesterday, just when this comment was coming out, we were right here testing session highs in the S&P of the March high, which is going back to the beginning of 3rd, 4th of March, that double top if you like. Retested that last night, and then just then a comment came out. We saw an immediate drop. That was that quite sharp red candlestick there just after 6 PM last night. And this was the comment: Trump was speaking live in a press conference and he said, not in a rush to make a deal with China on trade. Now this is something you do need to be aware of. Obviously the market, you know, especially the American assets— while Brexit is such an overwhelming media focus, you know, this is the bigger dominant, you know, global macro driver right now. Brexit definitely could become that as we get closer to the March 29th if there is no progression. But the trade deal is still— markets are highly sensitive to these developments. Another point here to be aware of though is this was the comment that got run on Bloomberg last night. Now that you would take as an immediate negative, and the market did. As I said, US equities sold off pretty quickly. The difference is though, he actually said, 'Not in a rush to make a deal with China on trade, but we are moving forward very nicely.' So in fact, It was a little bit one of those where misinterpretation, where a newswire has flashed a headline comment that's overtly negative but then followed it up shortly after with something that kind of mitigates that and it's a little bit more neutral. So the market's kind of got over this this morning. If we go back to the S&P, we're already retesting that kind of key level. So, um, you know, fairly bullish start to proceedings for equity markets. I mean, you can see here top left, the DAX has just now— or is testing at the moment— the previous day's high, or the overnight Asia-Pacific high in the futures space. So equity markets seeing some decent upside. This is well coming irrespective of the fact that last night what came alongside that China comment, which definitely helped to knock stocks at the time, was Trump has said the US is grounding flights by Boeing 737 MAX aircraft following that incident which occurred at the weekend, being tied then to the incident that happened 5 months ago. So more problems, uh, for Boeing. That also came exactly as that China headline came out last night. Okay, few other things that I just wanted to comment upon, uh, and this is more oil related. So before I get into the story, let's just have a quick look at the oil chart, and I'm going to look at it from a bigger broader context, because I can layer in then the macro kind of news on oil. And this is WTI crude taking into account basically the last 18 months of price action. So encapsulates the big 45% fall that we had at the end of last year when we had the stock market rout. Then we've had, you know, a key technical break, that 58 breach, which we had, what, 2 days ago. Is, you know, very meaningful from that perspective. And where do we go from here? And we were talking about this right at the beginning of the week, a break of that $58. Well, technically, I don't really see any reason why we don't go to the round figure now, $59. You've got that $59.05 around there, which was the previous points of resistance back when we were rallying at the end of 2017 in November. So nothing to really detract at this point, I think, unless there's a catastrophic breakdown of the trade talks to hit that target. This comes despite very weak industrial production data we've had in China overnight. I think that's kind of built in now to market expectations. So a couple things to be aware of from a medium term, from an oil perspective. One is this: the US have come out and the United States aims to cut Iran's crude exports by about 20%. To below 1 million barrels per day from May, um, is what's being touted in the Reuters exclusive this morning. Now, if you remember, um, the US imparted sanctions on Iran the day before US Thanksgiving in November of last year. And if you remember, that was one of the major reasons why the market fell. Now, you'd think that that's counterintuitive—sanctions on Iran, you the third largest oil producer within OPEC, should mean a reduction of supply, prices go up. But the problem was here is that the actual sanctions came with various exemptions, which meant that the sanctions had close to zero bite. By that, what I mean is Trump got his payoff from a political point of view to appease his domestic base about his dealing with the Middle East, but in actuality, the, the sanctions were nowhere near as harsh or onerous as was initially thought. And so therefore, when we were rallying on the back of this, this pricing in of the sanctions, it definitely helped when, when they, they were put into place and they really lacked much force. Now, what's happening then is this story. This is a lead-on then as to Saudi Arabia goes to OPEC Plus Talks reluctant to do Trump's bidding. So what's happening here is, is that now Saudi have become extremely angry at the fact that, um, what's happened is that basically by making these concessions and allowing countries like China, India, so on, to buy Iranian crude, then Actually, Saudi Arabia now is saying, well, we're not going to listen to Trump. We've got to do what's in our best interest, because at the moment, to fiscally break even, we're offside by a big amount. And if we're going to deliver this Vision 2030, we need to start seeing the price of oil a little bit higher. And what they're talking about is there's a technical meeting of updating of OPEC nations. This is where they meet. I think it's in Azerbaijan. And they're basically saying that they're gonna roll over and Russia will be included and they're gonna continue cutting production. And obviously this goes against then what Donald Trump typically wants when we start getting towards a $60 price per barrel, which is he wants lower oil prices obviously to create a tax cut for the middle class in America. So definitely could see this flare up tensions between the two parties. Saudi and the US, something to be mindful of. What's interesting here is that Saudi, if they commit to production cuts, well then it's supportive of that move then to continue the trend higher and lay it in with that technical breach of quite a key level of 58 in WTI crude. Final thing to mention just briefly, Chinese industrial output growth last night weakest in 17 years. China's industrial production rose by 5.3% year-on-year in the Jan-Feb period. The slowest pace since early 2002. Has the markets reacted to this? Well, let the market be your guide. Look at the charts. I think a lot of this kind of negative commentary about China is factored in. Um, oil's higher, stocks are higher, gold is down. I think this is kind of, uh, a, a, quite a dramatic sensationalist headline that doesn't really carry any implications to cross over into markets at this point. All right, quick look at the calendar. Let me hand you over to Sam. This is what we have on the docket for today. So if I just blow this up so you can see, this morning relatively quiet, to be honest. Uh, the US afternoon, don't forget we still have the time differential, so US data 12:30, not normal 1:30. Uh, and weekly jobless claims as per usual. Housing starts, um, relatively quiet then. Obviously Brexit is in flux, so if you're going to be looking out for the pound, I'd say one of my best tips is, I think, without the likes of the Brexit-specific journalists on Twitter monitoring— or no, not that monitoring, yes, but understanding what's going on with Brexit would be really difficult if it wasn't for the likes of these correspondents who absolutely have their finger on the pulse, and they explain things way— in an easy and digestible way and very quickly. So if you are struggling, I think, to really understand the nuances of it, there's two things really you can do. Is try and be all over the various different correspondents and keep on top of their, their tweets. So give yourself a designated kind of column on Twitter, or stay out of it. I mean, if the Meaningful Vote 3 passes and we have an orderly Brexit, there's gonna be a big move that will materialize, not just immediate, but for a period of time. I think the pound's gonna rally after that, if that is the case. And so, you know, why not just wait wait. If it is complicated, if you don't get it, if it looks dangerous— it is. And if you're not experienced, then, you know, a bigger move might come, or a different asset might be more prudent to trade at this point. All right, let me hand you over to Sam. I wish you guys a good day. Uh, let me just change over so that he's got everything that he needs on the screen. I'll catch you in the chat room. Thanks very much.

Hi guys, good morning. Everyone is, uh, is having a good start to the day. As you can see, as we will transition over shortly just to have a look at— well, we'll start off with European equities as the DAX is really leading the way here in Euro stocks up to the R1. But yeah, the DAX not too far away from reaching the high that we had beginning of the week on the 12th. And if that was to go, you've got to imagine US equities are going to continue going through. And before we have a look at, uh, the pound-related charts, let's bring up the S&P as we're not far from yesterday's high. And what that means on, on the bigger picture, you can see just how important this whole area is. And if we were to get, well, a close above there, more so on the week as well, but obviously the day will lead to that, then you can't imagine it'd be a quicker move to the upside, and then you are looking at those pre-October lows. Um, and then if that was to sort of slow it down a bit, one more push above that, and yep, we're not too far from the all-time high. Uh, unbelievably, from, uh, Boxing Day, that would be some heck of a move. But yeah, worth keeping an eye on the closes there for the S&P and obviously US equities as well. The DAX really leading things so far. Just having a quick look at a more intraday sort of opportunity. I think on the break of those highs that we had back on the beginning of March, 4th of March, and obviously that is an opportunity to get long if we were to get a bit of a retracement down. The pivot doesn't look too bad. Uh, huh, what the sound? I'll put it back on. Let me know if you guys can hear me okay. I just reposted the— yeah, it's on. Okay, good. So yeah, just talking about the, the S&P. I think the— the fine, just the, the feed just went there. Looking at the opportunity to get long should we break the, the highs of the month. And you can see we're just sort of testing yesterday's high now, so break of that, looking to extend here, uh, out of the, the key range that's held us since November last year for those highs. If we were to retrace from around this point, the lows around the pivot look quite a nice sort of zone to get in around 28, 11, 13, uh, would be an area that I'd be focusing on. For the pound, pushed higher last night, retracing, uh, a bit this morning. Uh, looking at this as it was yesterday, we had a bit of a slow grind higher when there was no real developments that have come in. So I wouldn't necessarily be wanting to look to get short on this market unless there was a negative, uh, twist on things. We still— if we have a look just at the last couple of days, we're not, um, really had a proper go at clearing the high that we had back on the September of last year. So that remains a pretty key level. Can we get a close above that? If we do, then, you know, I do expect from a technical point of view there's going to be another leg higher. More intraday opportunities come. You're looking what a good level yesterday was around these lows. If I just put the pivots on, you can see how well it did react this morning as well. But those highs that turned to the low today, I should say, along with the high from the 12th, I like the look of that if we were to come back down to test this. Of course, headline depending The euro, which is to a lesser extent followed what the, the pound has been doing. We got the full retracement of that ECB yesterday into the sort of evening, and then we did push on through that as well. The trend line that we've had on for the last couple of days from those lows, I'd still look to be having that. Um, didn't ever get a chance of coming down to test it, but if we were and that was to go, this still remains the place I would look to get short in this market should we have some dollar strength come back in. But also on the idea that this trend line is broken, this market may well look to retrace a bit. On the upside, key level, you can see we, we sort of had a go at breaking through on the 6th there, the high of yesterday, um, and just a bit above that we have the R1, which is also the highest that we had back on the 4th. So quite a key resistance point, uh, that I wouldn't actually mind getting the short here. The, the bottom rectangle here is the one that I would focus on the most for any EUR/USD weakness. Um, and just having a quick look over at the EUR/GBP, which has had a, an interesting journey over the last couple of weeks. It was never going to be the cleanest of trades, I guess, once we did break out of that multi-year range of those lows. You can see we've now broken, come back, and you know, it's still obviously a fair bit of way to potentially go in this market. Uh, wouldn't be too surprised again to see a bit of stalling around here. We're actually coming back to, to test those previous weekly lows that we had. If I just now put this onto a daily, um, so I'd be you know, from a shorter term perspective, quite a key area here. And if this was to hold and take out that low of the week, then the pound is obviously going to look to strengthen elsewhere. So quite a key little zone, that low that we've had last night to where we're testing now, uh, could well dictate the, the other pairs for the pound and the euro. With oil, as mentioned, we've got a push through in the, the, the Trump Saudi OPEC story, uh, helping push this. And we're now above that key $58 handle tested back in November and then last year in February. So I mean, you got a favor if we were to come back to test $58 and there's no change in headline, that would be a really good opportunity to look to, to get long, uh, in this, in this market. Dropping it down, uh, to an intraday look in a bit of— in a moment. $59.29 looks quite key as well, where we had initial support on the 9th of November, retested it as a high a few days later. So putting the pivots on to make it more, uh, intraday, you can see this, this zone here around the pivot from today around $58. You've also got a half decent area where people would look to have the stop, which was the previous high of the first. So really nice zone to be looking at there to go long. R1 seems a bit middle of nowhere, so obviously while it would be a good profit target, uh, that key resist— next resistance point, 59.29, going back to last year levels, would be somewhere I'd be focusing on. The dollar this morning is, is actually up for the day, having come down into the back end of the session. However, um, I do like the look of potentially getting long around well, pretty much 1,300 in gold. You can see how important this level has been last week and then again initially, uh, on the 12th, uh, to Tuesday. So be keeping an eye what happens around this point. We haven't quite tested it yet, but as an opportunity goes to, to look for a long, I don't really mind that area as a point of support. Equities just hitting, well, the the, the DAX hitting that high. Euro stocks, the R1. So I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a pause here, um, going into sort of the, the, the main part of the morning. Now, uh, oil, keep an eye on those resistance points. Pivot, I do like the look of. And equities, can we, you know, come down a bit to look for that long? Or the break of the, the highs as well would be something that I'd be focusing on. Any questions, uh, please do let me know, uh, and I can, uh, address those in the chat, or if you're watching on YouTube, to do that as well. But hope you all have a good rest of the day, and it promises to be another interesting one.