FOMC Live - Wednesday 29th July 2020

Yeah, Stephen, it's, uh, it needs a shave, to be fair. I think it's just laziness letting it get to this length. How are we all doing, guys? Is everyone, everyone well? Ali, hello. Ticks, are you doing good? What time is the Fed? Fed will— the announcement will be 7, so, uh, 35 minutes. But we'll do a bit of a rundown before that. Anthony's gonna come on and join us, as is Alex Cheung. Clark and Saif Ali, who I'm sure some of you will, will remember. So he'll come on, uh, with the rest of the gang at, uh, 6:30. But yeah, we'll do a bit of a rundown, talk about the markets today, uh, we'll have a look over some, some, uh, charts as well. Mark, how you doing? Thomas. Yeah, I might say I might do. The beard is getting out of control. It's got to that stage where, um, I have dinner and half, half my dinner is on my beard at the end of it. So yeah, it's, uh, it's time. But maybe, uh, maybe it's sort of lucky keeping, keeping stocks elevated for, for a bit. I feel like if I shave it, it's all going to go— I want to go— all going to go wrong. Mustafa, I hope you're well. James, I just got a quick question which I'm more than happy to answer before we get going. Do I think, uh, gold will spike beforehand? Uh, to be honest, I, I— it's a tricky one now, gold, and especially in the build-up before in the announcement. But, you know, with the fact that the dollar's weakened so much, you just gotta— you know, I wouldn't be surprised if, if this evening is slightly more hawkish than people expect, and, and we maybe see a bit of a, bit of a recovery in, in the dollar, and therefore gold comes under a bit of pressure, but not to last long. I think, you know, you'd be very brave to call a top here on gold, wouldn't you? Um, but a pullback would be welcome, as it is in, in many markets. Yeah, Stellan, you're right, stocks tumble on Sam's beard shave vid. You know, that is lit, that's the title right there. Hi Ian, hope you're well, hope you're well. Shubham, thank you very much for your kind comment there. Yeah, we'll, uh, we'll get started in a couple of moments. We'll see Anthony Cheung, uh, shortly. Mustafa, what if the Fed remained dovish? What will be the impact on gold? Well, obviously weaker dollars going to help, help gold push higher. Um, you know, did anyone, anyone see Will's, Will's video, Will and Anthony's chat yesterday on, on gold? And they were talking about, you know, could we by the end of the year, or by year end, had reached $2,500 for gold, which, which would be some quite something. I mean, it's the perfect conditions. And actually I tweeted on the 19th of March, I was looking for a long gold and I got long, but I didn't hold it till now. But the way I managed the trade, I've got such a tiny position on it, um, but profit way too early, and it's only ever gone one direction from, from then, really. So frustrating. But yeah, I, I think it's, it's still the perfect conditions for gold to to continue to go higher.

Really, hi, and hey, Sam, I'm just, um, getting some of the other guys, the team, on board now and sharing the link. So I'll leave you to it for a minute. Perfect. Or if you want to switch so I can start my part of the rundown.

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I can, uh, share links.

Hey guys, hope everyone is well. Hey, Saif.

Hey, how's it going? Hi, Sam.

Hey, so I'm just gonna get a few windows open because we are broadcasting worldwide. We've got, uh, we've got Zoom going on, we've got the Zoom chat and Q&A and the YouTube chat going on, so we'll do our best to try and, um navigate the storm of questions I'm sure that will inevitably come, so bear with us. But yeah, thank you very much everyone for joining us. Sorry I'm a little bit dark in my room, uh, at the back of my house the sun comes directly in, so I'd either be a giant sunball glow or dark like this, so I think it's the better of two evils, to be honest. But yeah, hope everyone's well. Stephen, good to see you, have you on. James, hope you're doing well. Um, Thomas, Luca, Taron, recognized the handle, so good to have you back. Jose Stubbs, the Justice League of Trading, very nicely put. Um, yeah, but Sam, if you want to ping the link, I don't know if you want to repost it in our private traders' Zoom room as well. Yes, everyone's on board.

Let me just send that to the Zoom chat.

Okay, cool. Well, look, let me kick off. Um, first of all, thank you everyone for joining us this evening. Um, Kurt, Paweł, it's great to see and have you guys still engaged and with us. Uh, guys I know that have trained with us, so Hope you're all doing well. Obviously, um, as you can see, we're all still at home apart from Saif, who is virtually sat in the office. But otherwise, we're, we're all still at home. I went into the office and the trading floor actually yesterday, uh, obviously in central London, and it was absolutely dead. Still no one about at all, really. Our entire building, every office is still vacant. A variety of different businesses, but I think that's the general tone in the city still. And with Boris Johnson saying what he's been saying this week and what's happening in Europe at the moment, I don't think we'll be back anytime soon. But hopefully that's a good thing. We've had massive positive response to using Zoom, our online learning portal, and stuff like that. So yeah, great to have you guys on board. But look, let's, let's get down to business. And the usual routine here is we've got the Fed announcement at 7, so I'm going to take 15 minutes or so to talk about, um, the market in terms about what we're expecting from a fundamental perspective. I'll then hand you over to Sam. He'll look at the charts from a technical and execution perspective. And then we've also got the expertise of Saif and Alex on hand as well to add any other further points and also to man the chat. We all will be doing so. So any questions, just type. I know there's some in Zoom and there's some people on YouTube. Just type away and we'll do our best to, to help. Right, I'm going to share my screens. Um, Sam, if you can make me co-host and the other guys as well.

Uh, all panelists can share their screens from now.

Cool, thank you. Okay, so you can see my slides, hopefully. Give me a thumbs up, Sam, if that's the case.

Yes, all good.

Cool, let's get straight into it then. Um, I'm gonna run through— I'm gonna add a little bit of context to the meeting itself that we're going into. Um, first of all, well, let me just start with what are the charts looking like as we go in this morning. I thought it was quite interesting, Sam. Um, I've been, I've been in, in and out of meetings most of today, and it's just so interesting that after, like, yesterday, people seemingly were getting a little bit, a little bit nervous, I think, about where equities were, having somewhat come off a little bit. Obviously some of the movement we've had in precious metals and so on. And yeah, it's just interesting, you put this, you look at the equity charts again and we're moving back higher. And it's kind of like, you know, you've been so right in holding that medium-term view of, well, look, if it gets worse, they throw more at it, and that's a good thing, at least for the time being. I know that sounds rather perverse to say. We're in the middle of a humanitarian crisis, and I don't treat that lightly. But if we're talking bluntly about markets, you know, equity markets respond in kind. And there's a big day for equities, of course, tomorrow Um, Facebook's been delayed, so you've got Facebook, Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet are all reporting simultaneously tomorrow night. Um, that's going to be a bit of a fireworks show for the NASDAQ for sure, and likely a bit of a short-term defining moment for the week. I would say you're probably likely to get a decent response in the equity futures on the aftermarket trade tomorrow and then going into Friday. But with that general theme I was just saying about the Fed and so on, I'm going to start with this. And if you watch the briefing I delivered this morning, the Fed did something quite interesting last night, I thought, which was they extended most of its emergency lending programs by 3 months. Now, the Fed have actually introduced 11 different facilities I mean, this is beyond QE, beyond interest rates. These are all the kind of weird and wonderful mechanisms to support paychecks, to help companies access credit, to help liquidate the money market, to facilitate liquidity for primary dealers. You name it, they've thrown it at it. And I must say, as far as central bankers have been concerned, Mario Draghi before he handed over to Christine Lagarde, and with Jerome Powell, they've all— they've overdelivered. Nearly every beck and call, they've overdelivered. They've been really quick to fire the bazooka. And I think that's a good strategy. I mean, if you think about where we were in March, it felt pretty nervous, like it was the end of the world type scenario. But the Fed, if you remember, they were the first to pull the trigger, go for a deep emergency inter-meeting cut. And then they've rolled out all these facilities. And since that point in time, markets have functioned relatively well. Now, again, I'm talking about markets. I'm not talking about the number of deaths that are occurring repeatedly in America, which is pretty bad at the moment. But from a market's perspective, markets are functioning well. Longer-dated yields remaining very low. The Fed— I don't think really needs to alter their language a great deal at this point. The one thing that they did last night then by extending the emergency lending programs by 3 months, if you think about it, that already is a dovish move. You're saying to the market, look, don't sweat it. We understand fiscally there's a couple of hurdles to navigate, literally the end of this week, and fiscal spending can't last forever. But we've got you in that sense. Uh, understandably equities have found a bit of a floor at this point in time. So I thought that was quite interesting to set the scene for today because ultimately, and I will end with this, not expecting a great deal, but as ever with trading any news-driven event, you might have a baseline expectation, should always plan for the what-if. And the what-if of course can come in multiple different forms. And that's where we have to prepare how we would execute around those different outcomes. This is just kind of encapsulating further that idea about the demand has slowed for the Fed's emergency facilities. So the first couple of facilities that got used, things like the MMLF. And if someone could tell me, even the guys in Amplify chat right now, if you could name me every single one of these, the full titles of all of these kind of word anagrams, I would be impressed. There's so many. But the idea here is that things like the money market mutual fund liquidity, things that are very key to facilitate then these financial institutions, which are the mechanisms for the operation of financial markets. Remember, the central bank's up here at the top, but you need these big institutions to operate freely with liquidity in order then for the whole system to function. So that was heavily drawn upon early on, but it's decreased continually. The one that's increased, of course, is the ones about payment protection, things that's more linked towards all these employees who've been furloughed and so on. The other thing is then, if you talk about the shape of the recovery, the idea here is that interest rates are not changing for a long time. The Fed have already communicated back in June when overall conditions in America were better pre the second wave in the Sunbelt states in America than what they are today. And they were already saying rates are going to stay low through 2022. So for the next 2 years, the idea here is that markets are expecting that to be much more longer. So the economic impact is severe and it's going to take time, but that means then that the Fed needs to remain in kind of supreme ultra-accommodative mode, and yields have reflected that. With the COVID situation, uh, the reason why I'm sharing this chart, um, this, this is the latest statistics here, and what we're looking at is the United States of America. And the last time we had a Fed meeting was in June. So if you look at the 7-day average of new cases, um, what you're seeing here is a pickup distinctly coinciding with the— what you could say in hindsight now— the abrupt mistimed reopening of key geographic areas in the United States. If you think about it from a political point of view, nothing worse for Donald Trump than an economy suffering when he's kind of used that as his mainstay argument for how— and to validate how successful his policies have been. Remember, before the pandemic, it was record high stocks, low unemployment, and that defined— then validated his policy had worked. Now he's got a bit of a tricky one. And what's happened here, and what's interesting, is that if you look at actually the speed of which we've looked at Florida, California, Texas, Arizona, these types of areas, things have got materially worse on that COVID front. And it's required reopenings to be halted, if anything wound back in the case of, say, California. So from the Fed's point of view, there's no way that they can sound hawkish in these circumstances. I guess hawkish in this situation is if they're not very downbeat, that would be hawkish in a sense. So it's kind of a spectrum of dovishness. If they're even a little bit dovish maybe that's interpreted as hawkish by the market. If they're very dovish, then that's probably more in fitting with their market expectations. A couple of more, I guess, practical points here around the release. Obviously it's a two-part sequence. You've got the statement in 20 minutes, then you've got the press conference with Jerome Powell thereafter. The statement is— what is the current language? Because remember, you are trying to track the nuances of the subtle change of wording of how they describe current and future conditions. And they said they're committed to using a full range of tools, so you would be expecting that to remain as a mainstay. That's the kind of friendly arm around the market to say we're going to support whatever is needed. Again, the outbreak will continue to weigh heavily on economic activity, jobs, and inflation, and will pose considerable risks to the outlook. That's in reference to the ongoing virus outbreak. Are we expecting any change here? The first paragraph may well note the deterioration of what we've had. Economic data more recently, the last 1 to 2 weeks, has now stopped busting expectations to the upside. In fact, it's doing the reverse, like what we had with consumer confidence just yesterday. That's not the first, but we've kind of hit that maximum point of those surprise index by Citigroup which was massively up, has now started to dissipate. The balance sheet is another key area to look out for, uh, today during the meeting. The Fed has maintained purchases of Treasuries, MBS, at least, um, at the current pace. This is to ensure market functioning. Are we expecting any changes here? Probably not. Um, one of the main things that most banks are talking about— when I was reading some research just prepping up for this meeting is that if there is any balance sheet alterations or tweaks, it's more likely to come in September. And actually, some of these other things we're all going to talk about, which is yield curve, forward guidance changes, um, the balance sheet— most likely these things will be in September, not specifically today. The reason for that is they need to see how this COVID situation plays out. There's plenty of spare capacity in all those emergency lending programs that we just showed you in the first slide. So they've already got enough deployed for the moment. It's about now waiting to see how this COVID and how the economy performs over the next month or two to then make a credible decision, which in September, remember, is the new Summary of Economic Projections, which is historically when they like to move because that's when they can provide greater clarity through the projections as well as the statement and press conference. The balance sheet, in fact— remember, everyone was talking up how the balance sheet was going to smash $9 trillion. And in fact, the balance sheet has shrunk over the last couple of weeks. It has picked up again slightly, but all because the Fed's massive commitment to do whatever it takes has reinstilled some degree of confidence in the market. And so therefore, they've not had to be so drastic in terms of the usage of these facilities, which has been quite important. So again, all the more reason for the Fed not really to act at this point in time. Yield curve control, um, this is that thing about targeting basically a specific part of the yield curve in order to keep, say, long-end yields controlled at a lower level to help support them beyond more conventional means, uh, that of forward guidance and other things. This is a survey taken by Bloomberg, and they asked people before the June meeting and before this meeting, do you think the FOMC will target specific yields to certain Treasury maturities? In June, this was a credible prospect. In July, they no longer think that's the case. Now don't get me wrong, it's not like a 90-10 situation, but it's definitely more like 60-40. And the idea here being, if they were ever going to do that, more likely that they would do it in September. In June, Powell said that they're in the very early stage of discussing this. Very unlikely then he's going to come out, and as I said, market conditions don't warrant probably that change just yet. So overall summary here, and I hand you over to Sam and the guys to go over the charts more from a technical perspective. Absolutely not expecting any change here. I think Jerome Powell has got supreme expertise now of managing a press conference, so I don't see much in the way of tangible risk to him making a mistake. It's probably going to be pretty, pretty sobering what he has to say. Obviously, economically on Main Street, not Wall Street, things are bad. And so he's going to— his objective here to reassure markets that they've got a full range of tools that they can use to help. Yield curve control looks unlikely just now. Balance sheet adjustments perhaps too early right now. And the same with forward guidance, this idea about them you know, having more flexibility around a 2% inflation goal, perhaps to let inflation overshoot, which would be indicative then they wouldn't necessarily then be a signal to immediately raise rates. So would be somewhat of a dovish change to their guidance, again more likely to come in, in potentially September. So again, it's looking out for any surprises fundamentally here, you know, how altered are they by the severity of this development on COVID Perhaps I'd say on balance, most people keep talking that up, and so inevitably are expecting some degree of dovishness. What if that doesn't materialize and they basically remain the status quo with everything? That could be deemed as hawkish. And in that scenario, renewed dollar strength. The dollar's obviously been pretty crushed in recent trade. Room for some upside, even if it's just neutral. You might get a positive dollar response, and equities might come under some pressure in that scenario. So there's definitely— be careful though, because you might get a uniform directional move there in gold. Because if he sounds a little bit downbeat, let's say, or if he's not supremely dovish— I don't know, gold's a bit tricky at the moment. The natural correlation with dollar has been a little bit off recently. Net-net, you know, the American economy is not out of the woods by far. So, um, yeah, keep an eye on gold. I think currency yields and equities will be quite telling. I think oil is pretty much the last product on the docket to trade. Definitely would not look to trade oil on this release. I mean, it would take something pretty monumental for it to really start kicking that market alive and moving 50 cents, a dollar, $2 type move. But yeah, that's it from me. Um, I hope that's useful. I'm going to jump in the chat, and then if there's any questions, just let me know. But I'll let Sam and the others come on and talk about the markets from a charts point of view.

Okay, thank you, thank you. And yeah, certainly gonna, gonna be interesting to see the reaction considering how markets have, have moved in the last, well, couple of weeks. Let me just share my screen and we'll have a look over some of the the assets that could be or will be most affected by tonight or this afternoon, depending where you are. Um, oh yeah, here is— this is, uh, I don't know if anyone saw my tweet. I tweeted 19th of March, so I'm looking for a long in gold, and it never, never went lower. Heartbreaking, um, to see it go higher. I actually ended up getting out this trade Um, I think it was on the 31st of March. Uh, terrible risk management there. But, uh, yeah, just have a— I, I guess with— I'm gonna start with equities because there's a massive area that I want you guys to, to be aware of. I'm sure you will have it on your weekly charts. You can see just where we finish the week, and also the month is going to be pretty vital. Uh, do we confirm a break above this low that turned into resistance, or do we come back below? For me, it's almost, uh, you know, if we finish Friday above there, I'm looking to buy next week. If not, I, well, I think we can come down to 3,100 relatively quickly. I think it's, it's that important. Uh, and then if we do finish a little bit higher than where we're trading now, 3,300 I think comes relatively quickly. And if that happens, then it's the gap fill the all-time high, which, you know, will annoy a lot of people, I'm sure. Let's have a look more intraday at the S&P. As I said, you've got some big earnings coming out Thursday, which could completely reverse today's move or accelerate it in either direction. So you have to bear that in mind. I think with, with today, the, the area that I have had marked up for a while is this 3229. It's that previous resistance level, not just from, uh, the, the highs that we had back on the 13th and 15th of this month, but also going back a few months before that as well. You can see we had a top here on the 8th, and then, you know, going back even longer term, you can see, yeah, it's those lows that we had here. It's that daily, uh, level to keep a watch on. So Yeah, that, that's a good line in the sand as you could want. And then maybe the, the previous sort of high of the day making a zone for the buyers and sellers to really battle it out as a key resistance level. Obviously you got the high from yesterday, didn't quite make the, the lows that we had back on the 23rd, uh, so I'll be keeping a watch on that. I, I'd imagine this would be a good a level as any to sort of cap any potential upside today. If we do drift lower, obviously just bear in mind the pivot is, is there as well, the daily pivot, but that could well lead to, you know, a move lower. And then, you know, the lows of the week, which you can just see the, you know, you get this a lot here where it just goes around and around and around the S&P, and it eventually holds up. So that is the area where if we are to get to this point, X mark the spot around sort of 3192. Below 3200, then I think you get a quite a big, big move to the downside, uh, as well. Bit of a trend line I'd recommend having on as well from the, the high of the month. You can see that's respected nicely in Asian trade yesterday, then also uh, around sort of 8, uh, 6:30 last night UK time before 1 o'clock for breaking through. So if we do reverse down, just keep a watch on that potential trend line there. The NASDAQ and Dow are, are pretty similar. The, the NASDAQ hit that support, and we were talking about that on the 23rd, the low in the S&P that hasn't quite recovered yet. The, the NASDAQ has hit that zone, so we had some nice support here, broke through that's, uh, you know, come back and tested that. So yeah, the NASDAQ, you know, potentially is, is saving, uh, the bigger move for tomorrow. But just an area to be aware of, really, that high from yesterday and the lows from the, the 21st, the 22nd, and then, uh, pre-cash open on the 23rd. If we do drift lower, you've got obviously a strong area of support on the NASDAQ, which, you know, the way you want to look at this is, you know, if you get a decent close and if there's volatility, 5-minute close, as you know I like to see, or if there's not a massive reaction, 15-minute close below this area of support from today, yesterday, and then the afternoon on Monday, that's when I think you see a bigger move to the downside. The highs of the day, good solid resistance from late last night as well. So equities poised quite nicely. I'd be surprised if we made, uh, and, you know, confirmed a new low for the day, and I'd be also surprised if we got above those lows that we had from the 22nd, 23rd. So the S&P just going on those areas here. Uh, euro, uh, someone in the chat saw us mentioned we're on the, uh, the highs of the day. So, you know, this is that whole thing of we've been on the market's point of view so weak for the dollar that do we now start expecting there to be more rubbishness in the statement, in the, you know, the Q&A, that actually it's going to struggle to push on tonight. And that's the way I think markets would be looking. So it's, uh, and also I have to say, this is the area I've been looking at where if I wanted to go for a short in the euro, this would be it. You can see here going back to September 2018, support, support, support, break, never retested on the day. And look where we've just hit now. To the tick. You know, how big is that level? Well, we'll see by the end of the day, but a daily close below here, or literally where we are now, so you want it a bit lower, that's when people start thinking about, you know, booking the— a bit more profit, and the pullback can start happening maybe towards that sort of 16115 level as well. So that's so key, uh, obviously on your longer time frames. If it does get above the literal high for today, then you really going back to the actual high of September a couple of years ago. Lowering it down to 60-minute, you can see again, you've got a solid sort of base of support where the buyers just keep taking over this market. Nice trend line though, however, if we are to see some hawkishness or less dovishness, a break of that trend could well lead to, you know, the beginning of a pullback and you're looking at a bigger move over the coming days towards those highs of the 23rd I think that's worthwhile having a look at. But, you know, you can see it's to the tick pretty much from that level going back 2 years ago. I can't stress how important, uh, that could be. Just as everyone starts talking about the, the end of the dollar, you know, just cast our mind back to 15th of May when everyone was saying we're going to parity. So, you know, the trend line's going to break and we've gone And it's got that same feeling the other way around. Fed can change that tonight, so we'll have to hold out for that. But trade what you see, not what you think. Uh, just before I finish up, I know we'll have a look at gold and T-notes as we go through. Just worth noting, you know, the last couple of Fed meetings, uh, I think it was the, the 10th, uh, of— yeah, 10th of June. Then you can see we come down quite big. Also there's the 8th I think of May, and then we come down for a period of time, pushing up into it, pushing up into it. It's marked the last two semi-tops. Could it do again? Could we see some dollar strength come in? That's the way I would be leaning. Uh, don't get me wrong, I'm all for a bit of dovishness to get stocks going higher. Uh, and Alex, Saif, anything you want to add? I know we've got 3 minutes.

There's just a question from Gary in the Zoom chat. I'm not sure the timing of what chart you had up, might have been the stocks, but would you try to break out here or wait for a retest? He was talking about the euro.

Okay, well, like I was saying with— I think I was talking about the— I know your question about the euro, but I think I was talking about the Nasdaq. If there's a big move, you know, fast money, I'd still really tonight wait for a 5-minute close. So the breakout, it would have to be quite a drastic comment to make me want to take that. What's been really helpful the last few, uh, you know, live sessions that we've done, uh, via YouTube and stuff is that 5-minute close just for the confirmation. And if it's a non-event, push that 5 minutes to 15 minutes just to get the extra confirmation you need, uh, to, to see that, that push on. So yeah, 5-minute close would be, would be sort of how I'd look at it, unless drastic comment, and then you can sort of hit it like that on any market. You obviously, the ones that we're going to focus on here, euro, and then obviously your dollar pairs of your choice, gold, T-notes, and equities as well.

Cool. Well, um, safe, safe, and Alex, you got 90 seconds.

Sorry, yeah, no, that's fine. I just say, um, I think the markets, um, would be very surprised if the markets can move higher or get a more dovish, uh, meeting than expected. So that side is almost negligible. Maybe a bit more risk to the downside. But, you know, the way that they've adopted forward guidance recently, these events are becoming, you know, more and more difficult to trade. Generally short-term volatility which amount to very much not very much more often than not. So, you know, just take it easy, don't rush into a trade and don't get sucked into short-term volatility really.

Right, so just to re-emphasize that great point is that, look, we're, we're a macro fundamental, um, outfit. So this is the type of event typically that we like because it fits within our realm of expertise. But absolutely, we know when to pick our battles. And I think that's a really great point that Saif made, is look, you plan accordingly, you have your multiple scenarios planned out, you know what you do whatever the case, then it's about being disciplined and just executing upon a conditional format of this scenario playing out. Otherwise, just wait and be patient. You don't have to commit immediately at all. But look, I'm going to put my squawk on. I will play— I'll share my charts and I'll play the squawk out of my microphone. Guys, got about 20 seconds.

10 seconds.

Can you hear that, Sam?

And that is unchanged, as expected. Rates maintained. Repeats it's committed to using full range of tools to support the economy. Says the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of COVID Repeats it's committed to using full range tools. Repeats also ongoing health crisis will weigh heavily on the activity, employment, and inflation. Economic activity and employment have picked up somewhat in recent months but remain well below levels at the beginning of the year. Repeats epidemic poses considerable risks to the outlook over the medium term. Says we'll keep dollar swap lines and FIMA repo facilities for foreign central banks open. Repeats we will maintain Treasury and agency asset-backed security purchases, at least at the current pace, and continue overnight and term repos. So it doesn't actually formalize the asset purchases. Note, repeat, expects to maintain current Fed funds rate until confidence is confident the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals. Doesn't appear to be anything new that I can see in the statement so far, and they do not formalize those asset purchases. So rates unchanged, the IOER unchanged. And a lot of this seems to be a reiteration. Very little movement in markets after this.

Yeah, agreed. I mean, I'm just looking at the, the statement here, and I'll quickly transition my screen. I know I've got my Zoom boxes up, but on the left-hand side you've got the statement. This is the one part they're describing: the ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, poses considerable risk to the economic outlook over the medium term.

Look at what the main changes was, and it's really in the first paragraph really. They actually— the virus and measures taken to protect public have induced sharp declines in domestic activity and a surge in job losses. They replaced that with following sharp declines, economic activity and employment have picked up somewhat in recent months but remain well below the levels at the beginning of the year, and the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. That's a new addition there as well.

Than that.

It looks as is from the Fed.

Yeah, and, and for me, as is, is a little bit disappointing. I mean, look, equities, little pop, now they're coming off a touch. Gold's coming off. The dollar's reversed. So this is that scenario where, look, they've not offered us anything new here. And actually, when you look at that statement— let me just quickly— well, I've got the statement still visible here. Yeah, they said following sharp declines, economic activity— and well, this bit here is when I was— I highlighted before about the downside stuff about the ongoing public health crisis. But look, following the sharp declines, economic activity, employment have picked up somewhat in recent months, albeit still below where they were beginning of the year. Weaker demand, significantly lower oil prices, holding our CPI fine. Overall financial conditions have improved in the recent months, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to households and businesses. So if you look at it, you know, that would be relatively upbeat. They're basically saying, look, we don't need to do anything at this point, what we've done is fine. But they're kind of erring caution that, look, it's not completely out of the woods just yet, but the ongoing health crisis will weigh heavily on these facts in the economy. So, you know, if you were looking for a little extra, certainly hasn't happened. Interestingly now, though, if you think about how the market's reacted so far, it's gone like this. It's gone that way. It's gone that way. And now we're exactly back net where we were. So if you think about that statement that I just read out, you've basically got the case for what they've done is appropriate. And then you've got the case for we still will monitor the situation, remain well-placed to add if we need to. So net-net, it's kind of like a little bit positive, a little bit negative. We're not doing anything, status quo for the time being. So our expectation has been met largely that September will be the bigger event when we've got a little bit more clarity about this COVID second wave, its implication in the economy, the fiscal negotiations happening on Capitol Hill. And so maybe this is just in fitting, this is the baseline scenario. Essentially being fulfilled. Um, but guys, I don't know if you want to add your interpretation or any, any charts you've got an eye on.

Yeah, I can comment. I could sort of offer us sort of some more medium-term trade ideas around this because I think this is so important for the actual meeting itself. I just, um, there's a giant trend line here in the euro dollar, and I know it's the same for the for the dollar index as well. This is a monthly chart. This is going back to 2008. Mike shared this chart last time. It's an absolute giant trend line. Comes in for me around the 18 handle. This is a spot market. And, you know, we pretty much tested that today. And so I think given the market's position in this giant rally we've had, we're testing that at the moment along with the level that Sam mentioned a while ago, which is, you know, back in the quarter caught 4 highs from 2018. So I think a bit of profit taking here, although we're just banging on the sort of 118. Dawn, if we look at cable as well, same story. Cable up at that 130 handle, massive handle, 130 after a giant rally, massively overbought. I mean, the euro is the most overbought it's been since years on the stoke— on the stochastic. So I think, I think we test 118 big fat test of 118 and then a bit of a retracement here. But this doesn't alter— and I don't think the Fed— this doesn't alter my— all my sort of trade ideas are going to be planned around this ultra-loose monetary policy correlations in the medium term. I think if you look back to sort of June 2013, during the taper tantrum, you know, and the Fed did their forward guidance too early, was it? I might have got that wrong. And yields responded by rising sharply. And then the Fed come in and had to do everything all over again, had to quiet the market down. So they're well aware of the mistake that they made back then. And so they're going to do this ultra-loose monetary policy is going to be in play for the next couple of years. And all of my trades are going to be centered around that. Weaker dollar, you need to be in stocks. You just have to be in stock market with this. It's the best play, isn't it? And if yields start to rise, guess what? The Fed are going to come in with explicit forward guidance. And if that doesn't work, they're going to come in with yield curve control. They're going to throw the kitchen sink at this in the medium term. And so I think this is definitely here to stay. I think that the euro is going to bang on this 1.18 for a while, going to pull back just because we're overbought in the near term. I would have thought we'd go above 1.18 to 1.20 just on dollar weakness alone and what's going on in Europe. Um, yeah, and if financial conditions tighten, then they're just going to do more asset purchases. So doesn't matter what happens, it's dovish, and it's going to be dovish sort of at least until— there's no need to look for anything else. You just need to really go for it, and now's the time, isn't it?

That's music to my ears. You just want to be in stocks, and, uh, yeah, I agree.

Do you think, um, I guess one for Saif because I know, I know he likes these questions. With, um, so with Trump and we've got the election coming, he's got it all, he's got it all to catch up on a, on a surface level of polls, which you take with a pinch of salt, but he's obviously going to want the stock market to, to remain stable if not continue to move higher. He's achieved that, obviously, with the NASDAQ already. He's going to want the economy to improve as quickly as possible. So it's in his interest on the fiscal and monetary side to remain supportive. On the Chinese side, then, a bit more tricky, I guess, because he's always had this firm hand to deal with China. Relations have soured. Is he just queuing it up almost? That if you think about it, expectations over US-China relations have got worse. So people's bar has decreased. He hasn't got to do much now. The Fed are delivering. If he gets Capitol Hill to sign off on a rollover, a lot of these emergency programs that they're discussing at the moment, and then he comes in well-timed in September, October, starts talking about a Chinese deal, let's get phase 2 underway. What do you reckon?

I don't think it's going to do anything for him. I think the whole China rhetoric was really useful for him in the first election. But as with market participants, the same with political participants, which is the general public, people have become desensitized to the China situation. Even if he ramps up the rhetoric, I don't think his voter base is going to come and support him. If he does the trade deal, I just don't think people are going to buy it. I don't think the market's sensitive enough towards it politically, or in the markets. And on top of that, there's a bigger problem emerging, which is it's not just US versus China now, it's the UK getting in the mix as well. And I have no doubt that other major powers in the world are going to start to get involved as well, simply because it's It's frankly now a power struggle, because in 10, 20 years, if China keeps growing at the rate they're growing, then they're going to have too much power. Technologically, they're more advanced. So I just think that this China-US situation is going to get uglier. It's expanded to the UK as well with the whole Huawei situation. And I don't think this is really isolated and this problem isn't going to get bigger and bigger and bigger. So I think I don't think for him just getting a trade deal is going to tick the boxes. One, there's a question of if he's going to get elected again, and I know the polls aren't suggesting that he is. He may be able to get away with it. But I think it's quite telling that the polls, his polls fell so sharply in the face of two major situations, which is the Black Lives Matter movement, as well as the COVID situation. Up until then, when sort of the economy could almost exist without him, obviously, with his fiscal support of cutting taxes. Well, the market loved him, and people, I guess, were still supportive of him. But now he's got the first major challenge. I think a lot of people are going to move away from him. I don't think that people have confidence in him anymore. So I don't even think him getting a China trade deal is going to do anything for his reelection bid. You know, I say this, we've doubted Trump before, and we will paid the price.

Um, yeah, I'm, uh, I feel like a Question Time host because I, I know I can see Sam wants to come in on this, but I'm going to interject, chaps. Jump to gold very quickly because gold just got up on my screen here now. Um, just breaking the— I'll come back to you, Saif, on that point, but just breaking that overnight Asia-Pac and early European entrance high. So just having a little test, this brief little run of about $1.5 there on the upside, Sam.

I mean, oh yeah, I mean, this is perfect, perfect scenario for, you know, you've got the coming up to a 15-minute close in 3 minutes. So can we confirm a break above there? That would be, that'd be something a lot of people be looking at. I know you've got Powell talking in, in a bit, but yeah, it's, uh, yeah, it's looking good. Bit of dollar weakness coming in, you know, seeing EUR/USD trying to push through that level. The R2 is there as well, and the multi-month one, the pound 130 is, is hit. Um, and yeah, that's the highest it's been for quite some time. Incredible to think that the journey that the pound has been on, uh, it's almost the only market I think that sort of outdoes that is, is probably oil, uh, from -37 to plus 41, uh, plus 41, $41. But yeah, I mean, look, look, yeah, we've got the euro there. Um, yeah, it'd be— I mean, look, the close of the day will be, will be massive, and then the week, because it's the month close as well. You're getting there, you know, the big, big players looking at, looking at those charts as well. Um, just if I can just do a quick poll, uh, this will be for those that are watching, uh, via our Zoom channel on Amplify Live. But, uh, I've got 3 polls for us here. Uh, the first one which I'll, I'll put in is, is going to be— and, and for those in YouTube, just type your answer because I'll be interested to see here. But the S&P 500 in one month's time, so August the 29th, bank holiday weekend in the UK of course, as S&P, uh, in one month's time, higher, lower, or flat? You should you should see those coming through. Also on the screen, I'm not sure if you'll— you guys on Zoom will see it, but there's also one for gold. So gold as well, higher, lower, or flat. Euro/USD as well, uh, in one month's time, higher, lower, or flat. So for, for those on YouTube, just the, the same for the S&P. Maybe just write S&P higher, lower, flat. Gold and euro as well. And we'll, uh, let's have a quick look at those.

Bring that on your screen, Sam.

I will once the results are in. I can show it, right?

Um, and we can't vote.

Just to sort of, just to sort of add to say what you were saying about if the trade wars kick off— when the trade wars kicked off, uh, from 2018 onwards, and the stock market went up And every time the trade war, the little sell-off to the trade war, was just an opportunity to buy.

I'm not even convinced Biden is going to be bad for the stock market. You know, fair enough, he's going to reverse half of the tax cuts, but then he's going to be easier on trade tensions with China. So you're going to see an alleviation of trade tensions which will offset the negative negativity of the increased corporation tax. So net-net, stocks go up. Trump wins, stocks go up. So buy stocks, literally.

Next, next 10-year rally is upon us, is what you're saying?

Oh no, no, no, no, I'm not.

I reckon it could be. I reckon if they introduce something like yield curve control, stocks like Tesla are going to go to the moon, literally.

I think the, the matter of, um, the markets can stay, um, irrational longer than you can say solvency is a major point here. But ultimately, the risk factors which were in play prior to COVID, which was on the precipice of throwing the global economy into recession, they're all still valid and they're all still true. So almost the recession which we were due pre-COVID hasn't really happened. So I don't think we'll have a 10-year rally, but just a bigger debt bubble to deal with a couple of years down the line.

And that's not my problem, that's my daughter's problem.

So here are the poll results, you should be able to see them.

Yeah, higher, higher, higher. S&P, gold, euro-dollar. Um, I can see someone, KK, in the chat, it's gonna, it's gonna take the other side of that. Lower, lower, lower.

Yeah, it's always interesting, isn't it? You know, um, you know, sometimes I guess when everyone is so in favor of the market continuing to go a certain direction, like in this instance gold, is that actually the time where it does start to unwind a bit? But a month's a long time, and you'd be brave to call a top in any of those markets now. No, S&P is not quite on the high of the month right now, but, um, you know, pretty convincing from those that are on the Amplify Live channel at the moment thinking dollar weakness is going to be here to stay for a bit.

Yeah, I think so. Absolutely.

Yeah, as, um, so look, a couple, couple of, um, housekeeping tasks, if I can call them that. One is gonna share my screen. Yeah, majority of people obviously watching this session on YouTube. So yeah, really great video Sam mentioned earlier that I had a chat with Will our co-founder and MD yesterday about gold. Um, that's available here. He was talking about, you know, can gold go to $2,500? And absolutely, yes, it can. Um, and there's some quite interesting insights he has there, having traded through obviously the financial crisis, the sovereign crisis, and, and the other things. So some quite good lessons there from, from hindsight, from history, having traded those events. But on the YouTube channel, if you don't already hit subscribe and the bell icon, and you'll get an alert every time we publish content. Happy to say, look, we love contributing to our community. We actually publish a video brand new every single day of the week, including Saturday, Sunday. So you're gonna have to get used to seeing my face most of the time, unfortunately. But hopefully my kind of macro news fundamental breakdown can help develop what is generally in the retail space. I'm assuming most of you guys are on the spectrum of around probably that side of trading. Um, it will help learn because it's not just me talking about the news and trying to explain why and how and these sorts of things. What does it mean? So that's the first chapter. Sam does a really great one on a, on a Sunday when he does a technical trade setup video, cross-assets, all products for the whole week ahead. That goes out on Sunday. And then these two guys are members of our, our team as well. Eddie, he does like hot topics, so Robinhood, Wirecard, TikTok, all these kind of things. Inevitably, given that his topics are more sexy than ours, he gets way more views. So it'd be nice to, to pull us up somewhere, somewhere up near his 56,000 Wirecard reviews that he got. And then Milan relatively new to the team. Milan works exclusively on our tech team. I kind of call him the boy genius. He's, he's a tech wizard, and he's done a really nice two, uh, two-part explanation about what is algorithmic trading and then 5 steps for creating an algorithm bot. Really interesting stuff. And yeah, check that out. So hopefully, look, educational, but we want you guys— the reason why we do this is to get to know us But look, we are a trading organization and we do offer training services as well, so be remiss of me not to mention that. There's anyone new joining us? I can see Milan's in the chat room. The boy genius is here.

We won that.

So Milan's in the chat there, you can see him if you want to ask him any questions on the tech side. But yeah, this is the Amplify— AmplifyTrading.com. You're probably familiar with this website. I'm sure you've been on there before. It's basically two main sections that I can recommend. If you, if you're a trader and you're interested in trading development, then just click on the red Learn More. If you're a student currently in your academic studies and you're in the midst of internships, spring weeks, these types of things, then just click on that blue button here. But if you go on to TraderOne, just quickly to show you there's basically 3 main training products that we have. One is called Amplify Now, which if you haven't done it, and I hope that there's guys in the chat rooms now that can testify the quality of it, I hope, I hope they'll give an honest appraisal of it, they've enjoyed it. But if you click start now, you basically input your details and you'll get free access to about 1.5 hours worth of free content across 3 different on-demand videos. So absolutely check that out. So just hit that Start Now button, sign up, and then you'll get an automated sequence and it will take you through and you can, you can look at all the content in your own time. That course then, at the moment, it will give you all the information. You can get access to it to go through and continue if you should so want to. We then have two main courses. One is a one-week intensive, fully online, via doing what we're doing now, but basically from 8 to 4 PM every day. We do structured training. It's a professional qualification, it's accredited by the British Accreditation Council, and it's accredited by the London Institute of Banking and Finance. So we're accountable for the quality of what we teach. And then the guys are trading live, you know, live. They're sharing what they're doing, they're mentoring. This is all a little bit more advanced. This is 1-week intensive. And then for those guys who really want to step it up and take this serious, we do a 5-week program whereby you would have access to that e-learning portal on Amplify Now. You'd go through all of that content and then you'd spend 5 weeks with us. And at this point, obviously, given COVID, it's fully online, but I'm sure Sam can share some of the blogs where the guys have reviewed the online experience from both the Advanced and also on the Professional, and the feedback, I'm happy to say, has been really positive. And if anything, it's so easy for us to grab peers ahead of trading or grab Sam or grab Saif, and they can just jump on really easy. We can all jump on a call like this, which is quite hard to do in physical form, actually. So yeah, check that out, just hit the Inquire Now, and, and we're happy to help. Obviously, if you go through the entire training, the Professional program, you would qualify to be looked at by us to be backed ongoing to continue to trade our funds, starting off with micro futures with the intention moving up then that we, we put you on to full futures depending on relevant parameters and performance targets being met. So just once again, probably the simplest thing I can recommend here if you're new to Amplify, jump on the Amplified Traders page. I think whoever on the team is logged in— I've just shared it there actually in the chat, the link. And then just click that Start Now button and you can get some free content there and then make a decision for yourself what's the best option for you. But yeah, enough of the sales pitch. Thank you. All right, any questions at all? We've got 5 or so minutes for the press conference. I'm going to leave you chaps to it for the press conference. But yeah, if anyone has any questions then for me specifically in the next 5 minutes, just let me know. I can see Better Trader Academy. I assume then you've done the Amplify Now, so that's great. I'm sure Sam knows you because he, he kind of oversees that program. Um, wish you could do part 2 in person. Yeah, as far as, as far as reopening our trading floor, um, it's, it's not going to happen in 2020. Uh, I can say with pretty much full assurance, um, just given the developments of how things are playing out at the moment, um, and just given what's happening and the way the government is talking at the moment. I mean, we adhere essentially to government advice, but you know, our first priority is to our staff and, and our clients. And so if our clients are going to be internal on a trading floor, as you can imagine, there's a lot of interaction, there's a lot of, um, close encounters with your risk manager. So yeah, it's unlikely we would open the floor again, you know, this year for sure. But we'll make it all public as and when things Things change.

Yeah, I mean, that'd be great to get everyone back in the office, but regardless of that, hopefully, you know, there's going to be a time this year when we can all get together for a meetup as well. I know we've said this to a few of the groups that have done the online stuff. It would be great to meet you all in person rather than via a screen. So we'll keep you all posted. On that. I'll send, send an email out hopefully soon, really, uh, if, uh, if the— we have turned a corner for the positive. Uh, question in the chat from Robert: have you guys done any trades? Alex was saying he sold a bit at 1.18s on the euro, um, could change your mind at any moment. I think that's the way this, this is going. And of course, in 5 minutes with the press conference, I, I'd be on hold now anyway, uh, to, to be fair. But yeah, I think gold is now up to the day, it's bang on the, the high. Do we get that confirmation above? Well, we've got the 15-minute close, probably not as much as people would want, but that could lead to a bit of a push higher. But you've got that confidence, you've got 5 minutes until things could turn on a sixpence, as the saying goes. But, uh, highs of the day for S&P and gold at the moment. Safer or Alex, anything you want to, want to, want to add?

Yeah, um, yeah, it'd be interesting to see what happens in the press conference. I expect Powell to talk about COVID developments. As long as there's a very small risk that, as Anthony was saying, he sort of under-delivers on the dovish side, but I don't think Powell will do that. As you said, Powell's really good. And yeah, so I think without— like, in the media, in the, in the near term, like, we're overbought. And I think this is a perfect opportunity to take some profits off the table if you are, you know, if you're, if you're a macro fund. And so I think 118 is a nice area to, uh, you know, we can define your risk above there.

I think, yes, it is a key point, isn't it? And look, people are going to be looking at that in even more detail if we reject that this week and the month, aren't they? And, uh, yeah, so it's tempting, isn't it, right now to think, you know what, I'm going to have a trade post-FOMC. But you've got the earnings tomorrow, then you've got the close of the week and the month. So it's almost like, no, no, no harm in just being a bit patient, those medium-term trades. I think, you know, tomorrow there's going to be good opportunities intraday, and for sure um, on the Friday as well. Um, but yeah, it's, uh, it's gonna be, could be interesting. I mean, let's have a quick look at gold again. And I'm not sharing my screen, I'm sure you've all got it up, but it's just as we go into, um, let me just share a link for those that perhaps do want to do want to follow it, it's up on YouTube at the moment on, on their FOMC. But of course you guys would rather watch us, so— unless you know what, I'm not going to share.

Also as well, I've just dropped in a couple of links, um, with people reviewing those courses that I spoke about. So if you want to check them out, they're in the chat on YouTube now. One thing I would say is that someone just mentioned that I think you've done the Amplify Now, but you're going to wait for the in-house program. Could well be that there won't be an in-house program in the future. So I would strongly suggest reaching out. And, you know, the reviews that I've shared, there are guys there who've done the online program and they've loved it. Because it's just meant that they've been able to stay in Scotland. Or what, what, where have we had people from? Iceland, Belgium, Singapore, Singapore, Germany, Spain, Panama, I think. Yeah, we've had people do it all over the, all over the world. So that's the benefit, I guess, doing it virtually. Rather than in person. And the other thing is as well, you don't have to live in London, which is, you know, it's not a cheap place to live for 5 weeks.

I've got another benefit as well. One of the benefits is, which I didn't expect, is I can actually— well, guys like Sam, say, for myself, can work much more sort of one-to-one. In the office, it was a bit, you know, it was still good, but it was much more sort of— it was hard to really tailor an approach to like the individual. What I realized quickly was being able to work one-to-one on the Zoom chat and talk to you every single day and that sort of thing, we can really tailor the training to the individual. And I had, I, you know, I've only been with Amplify since January, but I was in the office and I was on Zoom at home, and I had better results with trainees when I was on Zoom.

Yeah, I think, I think it's particularly early stage development of trading, it's very emotional. And actually then having a private, almost one-to-one where you can open up and you can have these frank discussions without then everyone else being literally sat beside you, I think it's a good thing. And the other thing is, is that look, everyone's in the same situation at home, and what we try to cultivate is we have It's not all done on video Zoom. We have pretty much a 24-hour chat channel that we operate, and the guys in there are always conversing and sharing ideas. So there's the community feel and the bouncing of ideas that exists, but it enhanced on the one-to-one, if anything, I'd say, which has been a surprising benefit that was unplanned. That's been good.

How is taking the stand? Um, I mean, it's likely to be a bit of a non-event now, isn't it, really? But it'd be interesting to see what comments come through.

Just before I go and let you guys go with the press conference— and Daniel, yeah, getting feedback live, the guys get feedback live. I mean, uh, it works. I mean, we, we before, even when we were on the trading floor, we would risk manage people who weren't in the office, who might have been in a different country. and so it's the same kind of drill. And actually, the guys are able, via Zoom, to take control of their screen, watch what they're doing, wrist monitor. The whole thing is almost exactly the same. So, but yeah, I mean, do the one week and try it, and I would be confident that hopefully we can deliver on that promise. But look, guys, I'm gonna leave you to it. Press conference is going to start. So good luck for the rest of the session.

Thanks, then. Have a good evening. Cheers.

Thanks, then.

Yeah, we'll, uh, we'll keep going for, for the press conference just to see if there is any, you know, key, uh, comments, uh, that come out and, uh, sort of talk us— talk to you guys through that. But in the meantime, in between time any questions, uh, that you guys have, whether it be about what we're witnessing right now or, or anything else in particular, please, please do, do get them in on the Zoom. You've got the Q&A, you've got the chat on YouTube as well, the chat function. Please, uh, please feel free to pop some stocks above yesterday's high. Well, on the S&P Yeah, yeah, I mean, that's, uh, that's gonna be interesting. And, you know, I talked about that low the morning of the 23rd, and if it can get—

if it—

I mean, still a fair whack away from that 47, 12 points, but above there, and yeah, we've seen a short-term low, I would say.

I think the pound's a really surprising one here. I was actually like, fundamentally, I was a little bit sort of bearish about what with Brexit and stuff, but it doesn't care. It doesn't care one bit. And in fact, the pound's gone from, you know, it's just been green pretty much the entire month.

Yeah, yeah, it's insane how, uh, how things have turned around. It's, you know, and let me just share my screen because it is a great example, I think, the pound, of trade what you see, not what you think. And let me just remove everything on here quickly. And it's been a market where there's been a couple of times where it's threatened to, to move lower, you know. Of course, once we broke the, uh, you know, the 1.27, and then also we dropped through the, the 1.20, you know, fine, you know, those moves at the time happened very quickly as, as all markets were moving, but There's been a few times in more recent months where like we've broken, you know, key level support here and the retest has worked for a period of days, then we break above that and then it comes back down again. And, you know, also people looking at the short here, and it's actually been quite a nice market, but there's definitely been times where, you know, if, if other levels have broken or if we had sustained, you know, a move below this point here and we actually carried on lower. If we'd finished the day on June below this such key point, we could have continued down, but it hasn't been the case. And it's been some really nice opportunities to, to get long. It's starting to go a bit vertical now, isn't it? And almost pre-corona level, which would be insane. And, you know, obviously this, this is the 13th of December, early hours, 13th of December. Obviously the election, which, which marked the, uh, the, the top there. So, you know, it'd be a lot to expect 135s to come in, but we're 130, and, you know, a week ago we were 127. So, and we have another few good days, we are at the 9th of March high, which is pretty much the high of the year, which would be pretty, pretty mad. I mean, when you look at some of these charts on, on the year you know, they're just insane. I know my data doesn't go back that far, and here you see the Aussie is just an incredible one to look at, as is obviously the euro, which is pushed on, and let alone the NASDAQ, which is— yeah, spot the red candle on that. Yeah, let me just check YouTube, see if there was any questions, or the Zoom chat.

I've got a question. Yeah, from Ian, says, going to be diff— going to be difficult re-entering on gold when pullbacks are shallow, right? I guess just to be patient, always to enter when there's some pullbacks. Um, well, you can do both, you know, so you can like, you can get ready to enter the pullback. So as price sort of run, uh, goes up through new highs price pulls back. But if it's a shallow pullback, we'll then just get ready for the breakout. So either in a strong trend, you'll be trading more breakouts rather than in the pullbacks. So you've got like options, you know. Number one, ideally you want to nail the pullback because it's the best risk to reward opportunity. But if it doesn't come and there's a nice obvious sort of sloping trendline resistance, you want to catch that on a breakout. Or maybe on a pivot level. I tend to not go for like yesterday's highs, and that was a breakout. Those prices already sometimes a bit overbought going into it. It just gets a bit funky up there, can sometimes come in a bit, stop everyone out, and then go. So I like to go for the breakout a bit lower down, that sloping resistance, or, you know.

Yeah, Powell says US will do what it takes for as long as it takes. Um, sort of the standard message these days. But you're seeing dollar weakness across the board. Pound confirming that 1.30 break for now. The S&P on the highs. Euro, you've got to imagine, is not far behind, even though it's just stalling at that level. Yeah, but I mean, that euro level is so big, it's, it's more than just an intraday high. So I'd be, I'd be a bit hesitant about hitting hitting the, the buyout market. Um, as well, Saif, any, anything you want, you want to, want to add before we, we look to, to wrap things?

Yeah, just, uh, there's a question there, um, would bonds be something to look at now, Chris?

Okay, sorry.

Um, yeah, I think bonds are interesting to be looking at for sure. But in the very short term, you're seeing dollar weaken slightly. And again, it's a modest dollar weakness coming in post some of these comments and obviously the initial decision. The bonds haven't reacted at all.

Right.

So US 10-year is still within intraday highs. So generally speaking, on a central bank event, you would expect to see bonds really either confirming a move or well, they would be your confirmatory asset to be looking at. And at the moment, bonds really haven't done anything. So, you know, we are seeing a bit of dollar weakness, a bit of equities going up. This is going to be a large sustained move. Well, one, we have to see what other comments come out, but the major ones have come out and bonds really haven't moved yet. So using bonds as a parameter to how— what I'm expecting of today or this event so far, not very much. So do keep an eye on the bond market. And in the same way that they are very interesting, a lack of movement in the bond market tells you a lot about what's going to happen to other asset classes as well. So keep an eye on bonds when they start to move. Best believe other markets are going to start moving as well, such as the dollar and equities as well. So yeah, that's what I'll be looking at there, Christopher.

I'm sorry, Chris. Best believe. Yeah, it's— things are setting up nicely. They really are. Um, but, uh, well, Powell is coughing away, which is going to send a couple shots through the Twittersphere, I am sure. But yeah, the S&P fresh highs for now, dollar weakness. Keep an eye on that euro where we close the day. Uh, if we, if we reject into the end of the day, I'll be, I'll be having a short, I think. Um, but you know, above there it's got room to, to accelerate on and That's why it's important with those daily closes. You'd expect the way that gold's on the high now is still like Euro break through, more reason for that rejection to take place if it doesn't, uh, as well. But, uh, yeah, we'll, uh, we'll look to wrap it there, guys. It's been great as always to, to have you, you guys join us, um, and we'll look to do more of these throughout the, uh, throughout the rest of the year. But yeah, the recording will be up on YouTube as soon as it uploads. So yeah, it's been great having you and I look forward to doing this again. So yeah, bye from me.

Thank you guys.

Thanks guys.

Best of luck.

Take care guys.

Cheers, bye.

See ya, bye.