How To Trade Jerome Powell's Testimony

Okay, very good morning everyone, Wednesday 10th of July. So hope you are well. I'm gonna cover off a couple of different things. This guy you can see to the side of my screen at the moment, Boris Johnson, of course, in a live televised debate on ITV last night with Jeremy Hunt. So we'll have a quick review of that. And where do we go from here. And we're also going to have a look at some Chinese inflation data from overnight. And then of course the main event of which everyone's been waiting for this week, which is the first of the two testimonies from the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. And we'll, we'll break that down. I'll try and give it to you in as simple fashion as possible. But looking at the, the charts this morning, not going to dwell on these too much. I'll leave that to Sam's handiwork. But WTI crude, just as I'm speaking, I can just see here just popping up to fresh highs. And that does come after we had a significant drawdown of $8.129 million in last night's API crude oil inventories. And technically, you can see we've just broken above, uh, kind of a high point of the last two-day session. So decent little technical breach on a catalyst fundamentally inspired by the fact that the draw in the headline crude was so much more aggressive than that of what we had against expectations. Otherwise, looking at other charts, we've got equity index futures drifting a little south. I think too drastic at this point. And the FX markets pretty much similar fashion as people are very much awaiting to hear from the, from the Fed chair. But Again, I'll leave the charts to Sam. Let's go straight into the news then. And of course, um, this was one of the, the final parts, if you like, before the known Tory Prime Minister will be announced. I think it's July 23rd, so still going through the process of the grassroots members of the Tory party voting for their preferred candidate. I'm not sure if you did or didn't see the actual debate in its but I did tweet immediately after the debate, and even though this is an incredibly small sample size, of course, of 39 votes, you can see here that, just putting it out there, Jeremy Hunt, 67% thought that he came across better, 33% for Boris. Again, without being too, too opinionated, I thought Boris was just not good at all, to put it mildly. But I don't really think that that matters. This is kind of the state I see, not just UK, but largely politics in general, particularly in the Western world, where just banging the drum on a specific point irrespective of any detail, and also just trying to outshout your other candidate has been an effective strategy for many. And you know who— Donald Trump, of course. So does it really change the point? Well, not really, because if you remember, it's this— who's gonna vote for the Conservative leader is not the British public. But the 160,000-odd Conservative members, which I think is a representation of an incredibly small amount. I can't remember what the percent was of the UK population, but they, you know, the, the odds would say, given internal Tory polls, that Boris has still got this very much in the bag. I'd be interested to see the bookies' odds this morning because prior to the debate, Boris was at about 95%. Perhaps he's come back a little bit because I thought Jeremy Hunt came across way better than Boris yesterday. Just my two pence. But where do we go from here? Obviously lots of different options. I mean, you know, the most incredible thing— I don't know if you saw a tweet I did at the weekend, but I, I did a picture combined on a layout of Boris Johnson at the Heck sausage factory with sausages around his neck while Jeremy Hunt was playing cricket with some small children. There's just this small issue, of course, that we've got to sort Brexit out. But obviously this whole kind of drama and razzmatazz around trying to just generate interest in their own candidacy is kind of detracting from the point that there's a highly complex trade and economic situation to deal with. And, you know, once all of this is this drama finishes, you know, we've got to revert back to this kind of decision tree, which is what exactly is this outcome and where exactly are we going. And obviously the two candidates represent two different kind of approaches, one being more Boris on the no-deal front. But even if you persevere with a no-deal, a very interesting vote actually happened last night. So the House of Commons yesterday voted to pass a measure proposed by the pro-EU Conservative Dominic Grieve to make it harder for Parliament to suspend, or basically to suspend the Parliament current session, this proroguing idea that we discussed yesterday. Now the vote was incredibly close, it was 294 to 293. Now this is important because this is one of the things that Boris has not said he's going to do, but is not equally taking it off the table. Because one of the strategies to force through a no-deal credible threat against— let's say, to really put it out there against Europe that you're being serious— would be to shut Parliament down so Parliament can't block it in terms of taking that option away. But the vote last night was meaningful to counteract that. Subsequent parts of Grieve's deal were voted down, but it definitely just goes to show that there's still appetite within the lower House of Commons to block a no-deal option. So as much as, again, the drum can be, can be banged by Boris, ultimately is his hands going to be tied and we remain in a similar situation that we had with Theresa May? But if we go through that, and let's say a no-deal is pursued, Parliament says no, forces the PM back to Brussels, let's say this is Boris, And then you go back to the renegotiation, EU says no, we go back in circles. Does this then ultimately need something like a general election or a second referendum to kind of break the impasse? Or do we go down the route of minor concessions out of the EU? Do they, you know, is that a prudent strategy to kind of, you know, show that we're being serious by having this threat of no deal? A concession comes, the deal's then passed, and we have a smooth, orderly Brexit, or negotiations drag out and we go to a general election in 2022. I see that as incredibly unlikely that we're gonna last until 2022 in the current status or composition of Parliament, the way things are going at the moment. I'd imagine if we did have that, it's most— much likely to be a more snap election route. So yeah, more of these decision trees to be aware of, I think, but But how importantly is the pound reacting this morning? Well, you've looked at the charts already. It really isn't. And that's really to do with the point that I'm saying, even though I think Boris's performance was— wasn't particularly overwhelming, it doesn't really detract from the point that he's still the odds-on favorite. And so nothing's really changed too much in that regard. The Dominic Grieve vote, I think it's quite interesting, particularly that as well coming with, although still slightly uncommitted, but more of a push towards potentially second referendum option on whatever state of the deal or no deal from Labour. That could start to, uh, if anything, fundamentally support the pound because either a second referendum or a, a blocking of the ability to push through a no deal would all be pound positive for the things. So definitely worth keeping an eye on this, how it plays out. But this morning, fairly tame reaction. Remember, in the intraday market, people are not focused on so much the pound now, they're focused on the dollar because we've got such a big event looming this afternoon. Elsewhere, um, just a, a quick glance at this. This is, this is a graphic of Chinese producer and consumer prices, the latter in blue. And as you can see, a little bit of a divergence. Consumer prices moving higher and above 2% at the moment. This comes after what you've had in China, really. Swine fever has impacted pigs and subsequently the price of pork, which has direct implications then for food prices and consequently inflation. So hence the reason why consumer prices are higher. One of the more things that has drawn some attention, though, is if you actually look at the white line, the white line, although flirted with zero when you remember we're having that big stock market rout in Q4 and fears about the escalating trade war, although we recovered in Q1, we're now back at that kind of flatline zero. So almost moving into deflationary territory for producer prices. Which does go to show a bit of a reflection of the global state of things and this, this pessimism about global growth where demand could be waning on the industrial side, which is obviously very important for China. So some interesting developments there overnight, but again, read across for overall markets, I would say is fairly tame. Going over to the main event then, this is, uh, Jerome Powell, and I'm going to be doing a I'm going to go over this. If I just bring it into the, into the screenshot, I'm going to run through very, very briefly, um, what we're looking at for today from Jerome Powell. So first of all, just understanding the, you know, I need to— I think the spacing hasn't worked because I've squeezed my screen here, so you'll have to apologize for the, the solitary E here. It wouldn't be like that if this was full screen without the video feed. But the point being is Congress is divided into two distinct chambers. As you know, you've got the Senate and the House. Now, you know, same thing. I don't know if you caught that Bank of England documentary on the BBC last night, but the Bank of England, much like the Federal Reserve, um, they are accountable to the politicians about what it is that they do. So if you think about it, politicians, existing governments are in place to— because they have been, through a democratic vote, voted by the people to deploy various different ways and means to manage the society and by net result the economy of which we all live in. Now what they do then is they have a central bank who operates independently, who they choose the people who run these institutions. But they know that these people are better equipped and more skilled at doing that job, given the complications there are with trying to manage an economy and how, you know, how complex monetary policy is. So what happens is then these are supposed to be independent. The Fed in this case goes away, does its thing under the leadership of Jerome Powell. But just like Mark Carney in the Treasury Select Committee to the Treasury in the UK, This happens— this is a semi-annual testimony where the head of the Fed, Powell, the Fed chair, has to speak to the politicians of the House and then needs to repeat that process speaking to the Senate Banking Committee the day after. So that— this is what's happening over the course of the next 2 days. Very important point here for any of those new to this situation or this event. One, this is a very important, um, historically speech that he delivers because it acts as a platform outside of the regular 8 Federal Reserve meetings that the Fed use typically to communicate their latest feelings about current economic conditions and forward monetary policy, um, going ahead in time. Now, the second point that's really important here is that Basically, he speaks in front of the House Financial Services Committee first. That's happening today, and that is the most market-moving. He then copy-paste repeats that speech to the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. That is not market-moving at all. So even though the event in itself— and he's still saying the same content, you know, this is the idea about fundamentals and the impact of news, the market will have fully digested and traded the information from today's event, meaning that when it gets recycled and repeated, the same speech but to a different collection of politicians, it has zero impact. So that's what's happening today. Looking at obviously the, the order of play, um, I've checked this out this morning. So Powell himself does doesn't actually start speaking until 3 PM London time, but that doesn't really matter because when he speaks, you're already going to know exactly what it is he's going to say. That's because the text of Powell's speech released under embargo will be at 1:30 London time. So forget 3 o'clock, 1:30 is the main event for today. That's when this speech, when all the financial newswires like Bloomberg will drop all of the predefined chosen comments that have come out, and that's when the market will go into a high flux of volatility and we'll get all the information that we need to ascertain what the Fed are going to do in the future. He speaks at 3, he reads out the fixed statement, he then goes into— and this is a broad approximation, but typically every member of the House Financial Services Committee will have an allotted time to ask him questions. The Q&A, very different from a central bank quarterly inflation report or a summary of economic projections from the Fed. Very different in the sense that it's not, say, financial press who are a bit more savvy about the type of questions the markets want to know, and therefore potentially more market-moving. The Q&A, the Q&A in this event, in the semiannual testimony, is nearly always non-market-moving because the politicians basically just have a go at Powell, and it's all very political-led, politically-led, rather than being anything of real substance for us as market participants. Uh, what are we looking at? Well, the whole basis of what we're looking at today from the testimony is not so much are they going to cut in July. We know they're going to cut in July. That's not up for debate. Markets are still 100% convinced of that fact. What you can see here though is quite a distinct divergence between the pink and blue line at the end of last week, and that was because the prospect of a 50 basis point rate cut at the end of this month dropped severely on the back of the fact that the jobs data in non-farm was so strong on the headline figure. And so we're anticipating 25 basis point rate cut. So that's fine. I have always been of the belief that 50 basis points wasn't going to materialize. It never was the base case, but that now has been very much priced off the table. Um, what are we looking for then? Well, a couple of other different things, particularly in the language of which Powell and his statement and also potentially some of the answers when he gets questioned from politicians, is the impact of the trade war. Obviously the ongoing trade war that the US government is having, this protectionist policy aiming at predominantly China, but also the European countries and Mexico and Canada and so on. What's the impact and the view of that on what the Fed Fed think about the economy or the impact on the economy and the subsequent policy that's going to be needed in the future. All in all, I think that, you know, Powell is a very savvy character now in the way he responds to these, these questions. I think he's unlikely to really commit or comment specifically or directly. And to give you a bit of context though, when asked before whether a trade deal between U.S. and China would diminish the case for cuts. He stated the Fed does not just monitor one development, citing global growth as another factor that the Fed is cognizant of, as well as inflation and jobs growth. So again, this is very Central Banking 101, very uncommittal, but also keeping it on the table with your options there to respond as you see fit to incoming developments. So in this case, highlighting not just to trade war, but inflation and jobs at the same time. Um, although G20 ended positively, um, there was no obviously implementation of the risk of further tariffs on the remaining goods from China. Um, it still does remain a sticking point. One of the big headlines we've had just in, in the last couple of days, um, it's been a bit mixed actually. I read this morning that, um, US are loosening some of the conditions around this idea on the sort specific sanctions on Huawei, which was one of the big things a few weeks ago, which is a positive. However, we've also had China being very upset by the agreement that the US are going to sell over $2 billion worth of military arms to Taiwan, which is a very hot topic domestically in China about sovereignty of that particular island. So the bottom line here, as I've defined find in that bottom bullet point is how much risk does Powell place on the trade war. The more he almost talks about it, almost the more dovish that's probably likely to be interpreted, i.e., the bigger risks that there are. One of the big things here, and again to summarize this, is it's not so much about the July rate cut. What the market really is zoning in on when this event unfolds is what do we get out of the communication that gives us guidance for how severe a rate cut cycle and how aggressive and quickly the Fed are going to cut rates. So for this year, obviously we're priced for about a 75 basis points worth, so that would be in a usual cycle about 25 basis point cuts, so 3 rate cuts. You know, is that appropriate? Remember, the market has market has nearly always overextended or overreacted to Fed communication, i.e., typically the Fed now, from what they're saying to what the markets are saying, is the market in overly dovish positioning? And therefore, is there a potential for a hawkish reaction today? And a lot of that could be defined by his assessment on the trade war. This is one thing to be aware of as well. And you know, why are we cutting rates in the US? Well, as I've put here in the title, what about after July? We know that rate cut's happening. Well, this is a look at US GDP. Now, the US economy grew by an annualized 3.1% in Q1 of 2019. That's a, that's a healthy number. But if you were to kind of, you know, this, this is backward-looking of course, course, to Q1. Think about where we are now. I keep reading more and more articles over the last few days about, um, downplaying corporate earnings season and about how it's going to be quite a tough earnings, um, era at the moment, particularly with forward-looking guidance, and how the global economy is slowing. And we've seen this materialize in the PMIs and so on. So the question mark is not so much that Okay, Q1 was quite strong, 3.1%. What does Q— what does Q2 look like in America? And so what people look at is this. This is the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model. And in summary, the Atlanta Fed, what they do is they, they basically mimic the BLS model and its various different component weightings that generates this GDP forecast. Uh, the quite neat thing though about this particular model, and the reason why the market follows it at the Atlanta Fed, is because it basically recalculates and updates almost in real time whenever there's major US economic data. So if anything, you're getting a rolling mathematical calculation of what then should be the outcome for Q2 GDP. And the point being here is that I think the latest estimate, and this is the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate, is down at 1.3%. I think the last time I checked, which is the green line. So if you were comparing this by numbers, um, just look at this. This is Q1 GDP, 3.1%. If the GDPNow model is correct and we drop to 1.3% in Q2, don't forget that put puts us down at the lowest level of growth in the US, definitely in the last couple of years. Yeah, hence the reason why Trump is so vocal about trying to talk the market up. Hence the reason why Trump is so critical of Jerome Powell and the Fed's policies, that they should be cutting, uh, more aggressively to prop the market up. Because on the balance of the economic data, Q2 GDP is anticipated to be the worst in definitely going back to prior to 2016. So it would be the worst US growth since the Trump era of being US president, and he's fully aware of that. So definitely the, the conditions warrant not just one but possibly further rate cuts to come from the US. Um, so policy options, um, Questions here that the market will be looking for clarity on will be: one, what is the pace of rate cuts for the rest of the year? One and done? No, perhaps two or three. Is there a possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut at the end of the month? Maybe the market has misread the idea that just because we had a one, you know, one big outperforming job creation figure in non-farm a few days ago, maybe the Fed want to keep the option there that, you know, hang about, maybe we do need to go, go big and go hard fast to get it, get it in and show the market that we're serious with our intentions. And so, you know, I think that that's a very low probability that that will be the case today. I think if anything, I think that Powell— I hate to disappoint intraday traders, but Powell is, is so good now managing these types of things, even though this is quite a difficult balance. I feel that he'll manage this quite well, and irrespective of short-term volatility, I do think we might finish the day and, um, we'll still be set on the same path, which is a rate cut in July followed by the indication of further rate cuts to come, with the option being that they will be responsive to incoming data and developments. That's my kind of overall summary. Um, third point, what if Powell delivers a hawkish cut? What I mean by that is this idea of kind of they cut rates in July but then they sound quite, quite upbeat, that maybe they just want to see how the market reacts to that one event and then look to take action accordingly. That would be deemed or classified very hawkish in regard to comparison to current market positioning. So the likelihood is there— yields would rise, dollar would rise, equities would fall under that scenario. An interesting stat for you, you've probably heard me say it before, but the Fed have never not delivered on a policy change when the market is priced at over 50%. Remember, the market's priced heavily for a rate cut, 100% in fact. And so for the Fed not deliver on the end of July rate cut would be a massive blow to the central bank's credibility. That would be an absolute and all-encompassing failure of monetary policy banking and communication. The point being then is if they wanted to take July off the table completely, let's say, as, as a zero prospect as I think that is, then Powell needs to come out and say something super hawkish to realign market expectations. Uh, that would have the most severe impact on markets today. But again, I would say that is the most unlikely scenario. Um, this is one other thing I want you to be aware of, is that after today, remember what I said, the Senate speech really is, is a non-event. But actually, on Thursday and Friday this is the list of Fed speakers that you have. This is what I call the Fed protection team, and it's a classic strategy adopted by the Federal Reserve when there is a very important, big, potentially market-moving speech from the Fed chair. They basically schedule in a whole host of speakers, and you've basically got the full spectrum here from hawks like Barkin uh, and more center hawk. But Williams, then you've got the most dovish member of all, Kashkari. You've got a mix, Evans, uh, Qualley, Williams, all voters. Uh, Bostic, Barking, Kashkari, non-voters. The point being here is that what you might get is that if there is a large bout of movement, these guys will come in and look to realign market expectations with further kind of forward guidance. Uh, very very classic strategy in central banking. The other thing to be aware of as well is that later on tonight, even though I think that the minutes will be dwarfed by the release at 1:30 from Jerome Powell, what is also coming out this evening at 7 o'clock is the Fed minutes of the June, mid-June meeting. So not only have you got Powell, you've got the Fed minutes tonight, and then importantly, remember remember that statement that Powell said, giving that, that guidance to markets? He did also mention that inflation is to, is to be monitored closely in terms of their decision-making. That is part and forms part of their dual mandate. And so US CPI in fact is due at 1:30 tomorrow on Thursday, and that will be a particularly important point as well to have a lookout for. By the end of this week, given what Powell what it says and given what the CPI data comes out as, as well as the Fed minutes, we should be in a much better position for a fairer reflection of the current status of what is it that the Fed are going to do by the end of the year. So with that being said, the likelihood is that probably the most market movement of the week is going to come over the course of the next 48 hours. All right, that's it. From me. Um, quick look at the calendar and then I'll hand you over to Sam. So that's your Fed wrap, but I'm sure we'll go over that again closer to the time at 1:30. Here's the calendar for today. Um, do be aware, for the UK, you've got the release of UK GDP coming out a bit later. The GDP estimate, 3-month, on 3-month figure expected pretty flat. Excuse me, um, the month-on-month estimate here for May, 0.3, year-on-year, 1.3. So yeah, UK GDP alongside though manufacturing industrial output, goods trade balance, and construction output. So a couple things there to keep an eye on. You kind of know the state economically of the UK as we've seen with the PMIs last week. Things are, uh, kind of gradually feeling the bite of the Brexit blues, if I can put it that way. And so things have been materially slowing is the general theme. So if manufacturing output, industrial, was to, was to spike higher, let's say GDP was surprisingly strong, these would all have quite short-term positive reactions in the pound given the overwhelming short bias fundamentally for, for sterling at the moment. Otherwise, other quite interesting things this afternoon: Bank of Canada have got their interest rate decision. Not actually expecting any change in rates there. Rates currently reside at 1.75%. And then you've got the, the DOE oil inventory numbers. So just quickly, I know Sam will look at the charts himself in a second, but the numbers, as I mentioned right at the beginning of the briefing, and we had a drawdown last night of 8.129 million way bigger drawdown than what we were expecting. Cushing, a draw of $754,000. Gasoline, $257,000 draw. Distillates build $3.69 million. Crude is up about a dollar as I am speaking, uh, helped by technical levels being breached and the catalyst being obviously an aggressive drawdown on the infantry situation. All right, that's it for me. Have a good day. Good luck for Powell if you're trading that event. Thanks very much.

Hi guys, good morning. I hope we're all doing well. Have a quick look over the charts, how we're trading just 40 minutes now through the European open. And the DAX, which came under a bit of pressure, brought US equities down with it. We're now below the pivot but found a bit of bit of support as we neared, uh, towards the, the S1. There's also a couple of previous resistance levels from yesterday, which of course we hadn't really tested since breaking through those, uh, around 10:11 yesterday. So that's just found support. So keeping an eye on the, the DAX. Obviously the key level now remains to be that, uh, that pivot point, which offered a bit of support this morning before we broke through it at 7. If that is to break, the US equities, which, well, with the Dow underneath the pivot, the Nasdaq— the Nasdaq, get the code right— you can see never actually made it through. But also the S&P, similar to the Dow, was just below there. So this is the key level here for the S&P. And then of course, we'll be keeping an 29.79 and 3/4, the area of support before we push lower in correlation with the DAX there. So not of course out the woods, I'll be keeping an eye on what the DAX does around its pivot level. We'll come back onto the S&P shortly, but that is a key point, key zone if you like, but the retest here just below the pivot as well. Euro was stuck in a tight range yesterday, just doesn't really want to move at the moment it seems. However, we did have a nice spike higher this morning up towards the, the R1 retests of different trend lines from yesterday, which you can see offered a bit of an opportunity on that breakthrough. Was also retested late last night at 6 and then again this morning, so that would have been a good trade back towards the previous high of the day that we have broken through. However, if we were to drift back up towards that, another test of that, you'd just perhaps start to get worried. But definitely as a, as a line in the sand, you would still want to have this on. Other than that, to the upside, the R1 and those highs from yesterday and the day before, from the, the evening on, on Monday, obviously remain quite important. You can see that coming in a zone just above the R1. So even a break of that trend, I wouldn't necessarily get too carried away that this market is gonna push higher to the, uh, the upside. Obviously those— to the downside, I should say. Those lows from yesterday and today, uh, all quite key. S1 marking up pretty much bang on yesterday's low, uh, as well. The pivot, while chopped up, could be a bit of a guide if you're looking for for a place to go short. If we can clear that area, you might feel we then get a, you know, better test of those lows from yesterday. This trend line spiked through around 7:15, but still well respected enough. That could give you the opportunity to get short on the break of the pivot and that later on. The pound, uh, let's bring this into picture now. 1.25, an area of of resistance. Of course, we do have numbers out at 9:30 though, so just bearing that in mind. To the upside as well, the pivot remains key, remains key like it was yesterday morning. But you've got some nice resistance from yesterday afternoon as well that is on there. Trend line from yesterday's lows, I mean, it was broken, I guess, early this morning. We've had a retest of that. In an ideal world, If you're looking for the short at the pivot, that would also come in around the same point. But for now, holding up quite nicely. The, uh, the price action just getting squeezed from the upsides. And as long as we stay below this trend, you've got to be happy to be short in this market. Target, I guess, if you're at 125 short, the low of the day and low of yesterday. Of course, the lowest we've been for, for some time, but not looking too healthy at the moment for, for the pound. Just having a look over quickly again to the DAX, which is just trying to extend its, its legs higher. Euro Stoxx now above the pivot, but that key level is literally being tested now, similar to the S&P, and that breakdown was just above the pivot. So keeping an eye on what happens there for Euro Stoxx. Aussie dollar, let's have a quick look. You can see yesterday Yesterday was a day where it just drifted lower and lower, and that has continued today. Uh, key support coming in around the S1. You've got the low there from the 21st, uh, so keeping a monitor on what happens around there. Another example, this— these trend lines just breaking. It's been just beautiful really for the Aussie dollar in the last few trading days. Wait for the trend line break, go short, and you're laughing. Seems. But looking for an opportunity on a pullback area. I mean, if we have a look at yesterday's low, slightly chopped up. I mean, this is perhaps a tricky one to really work out where the best place to get in is now for the short. I mean, if you could get back up to 69.41, you would take it. But maybe worth seeing the reaction that we get on this S1, which as mentioned, is that key level of support from a couple of weeks back as well. Yen, which was relatively choppy yesterday into the afternoon, uh, has just— well, we, we hit the, the low from yesterday early this morning, and that along with the S1 has provided good support. We're in a bit of a range now, you can see here. So let's bring this rectangle in. Pivot, yeah. Yesterday's evening's high and today's high as well. Probably best way I— for either one of these to get long or short, probably preferring the short just given the recent trend of this market over the last couple of days. However, you can see other than that, I mean, we could argue just above the pivot is still nice. Other than that, I'm not a massive fan of, of getting into a trade unless we got to the R1 break potentially of that S1. But it's having a look here, longer term levels below S1. Yeah, there is a bit of room to, to go down. So while in a range, not too sure if we were to come back down to S1 low the day you'd want to go long. So maybe preferring to, to get that short higher up towards the pivot point as well for that market. Having a look over at gold, and we'll have a look at oil as well. After the API push higher. But, uh, gold, which good opportunity yesterday morning on, uh, the, the break of that trend. We had a lovely retest of that as well. Good opportunity to get short to S1. We then found support on a previous level just before 10 o'clock before drifting back higher. And again, another opportunity when we broke the trend to the upside. So those trends are working nicely. Uh, you can see we're just having one developed here just over the last 15 minutes. 1, 2, 3. Keeping a close watch on that. So while perhaps this morning the pivot looks a really nice place to go short, if that trend line breaks, for me that takes away the idea of wanting to short the pivot, especially looking at the reaction we saw every time a trend line broke yesterday. To the downside, the lows are pretty good in level of support. That failed break of the low we had at 3.30. So I'd still have that marked up on the charts. Opportunity-wise, I think would happen on a, on a break of this trend, to be honest, rather than looking to go short pivot to the downside. If we were to break those lows, just be careful, a lot of support just below there, S1, and then the lows from yesterday as well. Wrapping up here with oil, and we'll have a quick look one time at what European and US equities are doing. Oil, you can see breaking out of that range from yesterday, helped by the API. Bit of a divergence, as you'd expect from those numbers, with gasoline. Gasoline pretty much flat from 9:30 yesterday. Oil, I would, you know, have the view that we're going to remain going higher as long as we can stay above this trend. We're just finding support on what was the previous high of the Asian session. So 58.75, and around that zone here, as long as we stay above this, I would call that what, 69, 10-tick, 10-tick level, you would be happy to, to stay long. While the, the draw was big, you know, the opportunity of a break below that trend isn't the worst idea, uh, in the world. Yesterday's high up towards R1, and that is the, the highest we've been since, uh, last well, the beginning of the month from the 2nd, which you've got quite a lot of resistance around there. So even a break higher, just be careful. Uh, in terms of a place to get long lower down, I really do like, uh, just below the pivot, 58.14 kind of area. We've had quite a decent bit of price action over the last few days, which for me looks like it could be quite a nice place to, uh, to get in there for oil. I'm gonna look at, uh, equities. Obviously the DAX just slowing down, the Euro Stoxx hitting that level perfectly. So resistance, uh, in Europe just halting US equities recovery here. And obviously that pivot, as we mentioned, for the S&P vitally important. So understandably the sellers just coming back in, in what is a pretty good level to have gone short, uh, if, uh, if that was the bias that you had. Any questions, as usual, obviously please do let us know. Data, just to run over that one more time, you do have some numbers out shortly from UK 9:30. So, uh, yeah, we've got— what's that, 40, uh, 45 minutes? I think my maths might be wrong there, maybe 40 minutes, uh, before that comes out. Um, so if you're in the pound trade by 9:15, you really want to start unwinding that position. Hope you will have a good trading day. And good rest of the week if I don't catch up with you.