Jerome Powell Speaks At Jackson Hole - Live

Good week. Okay, are we live?

In—

yep, we are live, we are live now.

Okay, great. Well, um, yeah, thank you very much guys for joining us. And yeah, main event of the week, everything we've been waiting for coming down the pipe in about half an hour's time. And, uh, I guess that in itself is almost a lesson to behold in the art of, I guess, intraday trading. Where you can get somewhat absorbed, I think, into these big fixed events where ultimately, if you get out of the actual nitty-gritty of what we're about to see, um, is this going to really destabilize and be the game changer for the medium term? Probably not, but that doesn't mean we won't get our bout of volatility in about 30 minutes for sure. And I guess as we always say, the best thing to do is to prepare multiple scenarios. And I know Alex, for one, has done an excellent blog that he shared at the weekend and we put out earlier in the week. And I guess probably prudent really to hand you over to him and he can explain a little bit about, you know, what is this average inflation targeting? Why have we arrived at this juncture? What does it mean? What does it represent for policy going forward? How does it work? And then I guess in terms of more importantly for you guys trading this event, what have you got to look for and how might the different asset classes react? So with that, hopefully that's an appropriate introduction for you, Alex.

Thank you. Thanks. Could I have the sharing rights please?

Yeah.

Hi guys, thanks for joining. Just going to run through Can you see Mr. Powell there?

Can indeed, yep.

Excellent. So just to begin with a quick summary, uh, if consensus towards forward guidance and inflation targeting has made significant progress in preparation for September 16th FOMC meeting, this will likely see a dovish price reaction— USD lower, equities higher, yields lower, gold higher. If there's no progress have been made, as was the case in the minutes from the July meeting, and we'll likely see the opposite, the hawkish price reaction. Just wanted to start off just looking at a few bits from the average inflation target and why they're doing it. Um, the Fed has a problem at the moment that average inflation over the last 10 years has been below their 2% target, around 1.5%. That poses a risk to the economy as low inflation can soften demand for goods and services. And like in Japan, that has a negative impact on growth. And the Fed want to avoid that. Now, the Fed— the Bank of Japan tried quantitative easing and raising their inflation targets and all that kind of stuff, but none of that has yet to work. So the Fed are trying a different approach here, which which is average inflation targeting, which means that what happened previously— if we just look at this picture here— is you can see that when inflation reached 2%, the Fed started hiking rates and started tightening financial conditions. Whereas what they're going to do now is they're going to let inflation run over the 2% target and leave it there for a while. And you can see this interest rate line at the bottom here, you would see this stay flat while inflation is above this 2% level. And what that should do over time is that should— if you're over 2% at some point and you're below 2% at other points, then average out at 2%. And so it's a new regime for the Fed. Um, that's why this Jackson Hole is called the Decade Ahead. And so it is quite an important juncture. It's nothing new, they've been talking about this for a while. So that's the problem that the Fed have and how they plan on dealing with it. But they're still in debate about— we don't know how long they want to let inflation run over target, to what level they're going to go, 2.25%, 2.5%, are they going to do it for 2 years, 3 years? We don't know any of those details yet. And so this is the sort of stuff that we're looking for in the Jackson Hole. So as a recap of what happened in the July minutes, the Fed failed to make any consensus on the framework. and on forward guidance. Forward guidance is, of course, the next step for the doves as the Fed's commitment to keep rates low to facilitate credit and stimulate the economy post-COVID recession, as they did in 2009. Expectations in the market is for the Fed's framework review to be released at the September meeting, which Powell will want to provide a flavor of what that review is going to look like and he will want to prime the markets now and ahead of September. Some key points to look out for is the framework review itself. The focus will be on how close is the Fed to completing their framework review, uh, thus raising the likelihood that it will be implemented in September. Currently, the Fed is still debating— it's still in the debating stages of the review, implying that they're not ready to roll it out in September yet. So the main question is, is it complete or is it nearly complete? In the July minutes, it obviously wasn't, which is why we saw those hawkish price reactions after the minutes.

Are the Fed still far away from completion, from the completion of that? And in terms of average inflation targeting, the market's expecting the Fed to announce its average inflation targeting today. But how explicit will the Fed be? Will they give specific figures, like I said earlier, about how far— how they're going to execute AIT, how long they're going to leave rates low for, how they're going to let it overshoot, and the length of time? Or are they going to be vague about it and they're not going to reveal much? What we want to see is we want to see the Fed commit to us and commit to the market about what they're willing to do. They might not be ready to do that yet. If they do do AIT, this would imply looser monetary policy and lower rates for a longer period, which is dovish. That's an extremely dovish position. And they're also going to have higher inflation, which will be good for commodities, it'll be good for equities, you know, weaker dollar, that reflation trade. Uh, during the minutes, uh, yield curve control was ruled out in the near term at the July meeting, but the Fed didn't shed any light on what conditions would warrant the use of yield curve control. Remember, if we look at— if I just quickly cycle— one of the main things the Fed are trying to control are yields. They want to keep yields low. Yeah, so this is the current yields, right? Yields are flat along the 0.5%. This is very stimulative for the economy and encourages credit growth, which drives economic growth and therefore inflation. So yields are low at the moment. There's no need to make them any lower. In 2013, during the taper tantrum, you can see that yields skyrocketed from 1.5% all the way up to 3%. And this is bad for the economic recovery.

So if we—

we would likely need to see something like this to happen before the Fed would even consider yield curve control. They said that in the minutes. They said that yield curve control has no benefits in these conditions of low yields. That's what they were talking about. So yields are low, so there's no pressure on the Fed really to implement serious dovish monetary policy at this present moment. In terms of forward guidance, the market has been looking for more explicit forward guidance. I think the current forward guidance at the moment is we're not even thinking about thinking about raising rates. During the July meeting, the Fed members were debating number one, calendar-based guidance, number two, outcome-based guidance. And that can be inflation-linked, employment-linked, or a mixture of both, or it could be a mixture of calendar-based and outcome-based. You can, you can see they're still in this debating stage of the policy, which basically means they're nowhere near making an agreement, voting on an agreement, coming to a completion of that, and then implementing it. You know, so they're still in that debating stage and we need to see them move forward with that, as forward guidance is the next stage in keeping rates low, next dovish push in the equity market. So they're still weighing up the pros and cons. The July minutes did not commit to a specific type of forward guidance. The big question is, is— are— the big question today is, are they any closer to the completion and therefore the decision, which they may preempt in the September meeting. The important point here is the bar is a lot higher this time around than it was in the minutes a couple of weeks ago. Bar's a lot higher, expectations are a lot higher. So even if they've made progress, they need to make a lot of progress to get that dovish reaction from markets. Finally, QE, uh, what are the implications for the asset purchases? They're currently buying $80 billion in Treasuries and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities, but the Fed hasn't formalized its actual asset purchases in the statement, which some people wanted them to do in the July meeting. The current stance on growth is that in July, Powell's dovish, uh, Back then, the coronavirus was picking up in America. High-frequency data was slowing at that retail sales print. We obviously had the durable goods yesterday, which had pretty much recovered from the, from the recession. Powell also stated household spending had recovered due to fiscal stimulus, but employment had a long way to go for recovery and inflation price pressures were running significantly below the Fed's target due to weaker demand. Does he change any of these? Since then, inflation expectations— I just want to bring up inflation expectations because it feeds into that real yield story. Inflation expectations have continued to rise. Looking at the forward market now at 1.8%. So back in July, we was down sort of the 1.6% area, but now we're up at 1.8%, still continuing to rise on inflation expectations. Yields, bond yields strengthened since August. And so the real yields, which is an important part of that gold story, which is why gold pulled back. This is probably going to be one of my favorite trades. Positioning, which is, which was minutes. The S&P index is at record highs. The USD is near August lows. Dollar index flirting with that 92.50, which is a key monthly support. It's a massive support. Yields rose from the August low. Treasuries have fallen in recent days, but have stabilized in that 139 handle. Since the rise in yields, gold came off August high, but found support. There's a giant support in gold around that 1900 handle, which I'll be looking at, which actually held yesterday very strongly. So the positioning in this dovish trade is extremely stretched. Ahead of the meeting. And so not only, not only are expectations super high, but positioning's super stretched. I mean, the market's really vulnerable here to, to a hawkish correction. Um, that's my sort of view. I'm gonna wait until after the meeting. So let's, let's have a look at a couple of outcomes. Uh, if the consensus is reached today with inflation targeting and forward guidance and the framework review, then we'd likely see is not reached, sorry, would likely see a hawkish price response. This coupled with the overstretched dovish positioning, the bar is much higher for progress towards consensus than in the July minutes. This would be the same trade as last time: stronger USD, weaker equities, stronger yields, and weaker gold. Gold would break that 1900 mark, the dollar index would rise up towards 94, and That'd be my favorite trade, probably go short euro, short cable off the back of that sort of scenario. But if Powell does deliver on the consensus, making the likelihood of a deployment in September more likely, markets would move now, not in September, and would likely see that dovish price response from the weaker USD, stronger equities, weaker yields, stronger gold. Gold would be my favorite trade there. Long gold all the way back up to that August high, as real yields would then strengthen as nominal yields fall. How does this fit into the bigger picture? As you know, my trade thesis and all of my trades are centered around this ultra-loose monetary policy correlations. Whatever happens today, the Fed will issue their statement at some point in their framework review, I believe this year. They will explicit— they will issue explicit forward guidance. They need to. Do— they need to do now is— excuse me, the need to do so now is, is less as interest rates are super low. And as we saw, the bond yields, they're actually really low. So it's not too much pressure from the Fed. But as Ant was saying this morning in the morning briefing, uh, the Fed do like to get ahead of these developments. They don't want anything like 2013 happening again. So if they fail to deliver, you'll see that hawkish correction I was talking about. And then I'll wait a while to get back long the dovish trend. I think this dovish trend is definitely here to stay. It's just the timing of it. Is it now? Do we go now with the dovishness or do we wait a couple of months and then get long after that hawkish correction has sort of stabilized? If the Fed commit to AIT and forward guidance, then this would be positive for real yields as inflation expectations would continue to rise and bond yields would fall. Therefore, I want to be long gold. I'd be a massive gold bug in that scenario. But if the Fed disappoints today, it doesn't really make a difference to my thesis. It just makes a difference for the timing. How much is already priced in? Well, that's difficult to know for sure. But with the extreme positioning, even if they're super dovish today, I think a lot of that's already priced in. You might get that pop, then the hawkish correction, then go along like that. But that's what I've got today. So I'm going to bring in Anthony.

Yeah, cool. Thank you very much, Alex. Comprehensive as ever. And just very quickly for me, and I'll hand over to Sam because I'm quite keen to see practically what are the key technical levels to play off under those scenarios that Alex has spoke of. And yeah, a couple of different things. One is there's a question here from Ed Inhouse. And he's talking about, you know, what's the trigger? What do we need is like the trigger to see then the market react to? And I kind of think you're right, Ed, from what you're suggesting. It's he needs to be explicit. And the more explicit, the more detailed what is exactly that they're doing, what is the de facto numbers, the timelines, all this sort of thing. The more detail, the more dovish. Because it means that their talks are very advanced to the point where this is done, this is happening. The more loose they are around the details, the less so probably that it's still not quite there yet. And so therefore, I think that would be the trigger that would be more hawkish. Not so much hawkish, just not dovish, I think is the better way to phrase it. So it's again, it's kind of like the minutes. It's what he perhaps doesn't say, not what he does say. That perhaps could be a defining factor if you do get a rerun of what we were just the other week with the minutes, I would say. Um, but yeah, Sam, over to you.

Yeah, thanks, thanks, and thanks, Alex, for, for that great intro. It's, it's, uh, certainly one that people are looking forward to, and that's led to the markets today being relatively quiet. Uh, and thanks for everyone for joining. I see some familiar faces in, in the YouTube Uh, there, George, good to have you on, uh, as well. Mr. Silver himself, Jonas Sajid, good to, good to have you. Miles as well, and, and Jason, I see you guys there as well. But let's, uh, let's have a quick share of the, the charts because, you know, going on from what Alex said, uh, we'll start with, with equities. And he was talking about, you know, any potential dip, you know, could be a great place to load up for the longer term. And I absolutely have to agree with that. It's just, you know, where, uh, that comes into play, you know, should we get, you know, a less dovish or slightly hawkish reaction. So I've got a couple points marked up for today, uh, those key highs that we had, obviously the all-time high on Tuesday turned into, uh, Wednesday morning, uh, and then, uh, sort of the midday high as well. We broke through, so 34, 48 I quite like the look of. You'd expect a decent reaction around there, uh, certainly people if they did get short to take some sort of profit. 34.24, a bit below that, a previous all-time high which turned to great support post-US cash open on Tuesday as well. So be potentially looking at that should there be a further unwind of this big push that we've had this week, you know. But, you know, bear in mind we started the week at $3,390. We have a fair whack above that. The real area that I would like, and hopefully this could come in the next sort of week or so, would be $3,400. And this is of course needed, uh, by— well, would have to happen if there was this, you know, less dovish reaction. But looking at this on the daily chart, the reason for that, it is of course the previous all-time high that we had back in, well, back at the end of February. So I would love that. I think from a market point of view, like Alex was saying, it's just, it's the timing, you know. You probably still want to be overall long stocks, certainly, you know, over the, you know, the sort of medium term heading into the election, uh, with a, you know, overall still dovish Fed. It sort of makes sense. And if you can get the opportunity to buy lower down, fantastic. Uh, where could that be? 3,400 for me is, is that place where, you know what, I'd almost be happy having resting orders there, except for the fact that, you know, you never know what's going to happen with these, uh, big events. Some people as well talking about the 21-day moving average in the S&P, how that's followed and been good support really from the 7th of July a couple of times, even on the 30th. It's been a great, uh, area where people have looked to get in again. It could well be that if we drift lower for the next few days, you know, into the start of September, by the time we get to 3,400, it could also be that, uh, that 21-day moving average. So I'd be having a look at that. Below there, a bit of a bigger unwind, uh, 3,287 or just around 3,300, you're gonna have people biting your, your arm off for that. That'd be a pretty serious move to the downside. And from a percentage point That'd be 5.5%. I'd be very surprised if that was to happen. Moving on to the NASDAQ, the market that just can't really go down at the moment, uh, worth obviously having that 21-day moving average on as well. Any of those previous all-time highs will be worth having a look at. 11,723, a point that people will pay attention to. Any bigger move below that and then you're starting to talk— I mean, if we come back to the trend line it's again, it's a 6% move, which would be massive. You would need some serious, you know, comments on the hawkish side of things to get us down to there. But 11,723 could be a point where people look to load up and get long again. The Dow, which as we know has been lagging behind the two of them but has had a good start to the week, you know, that back down towards 28,000 I think could be a good point, a very important level historically as well. Held up fantastically well just before we broke lower into the end of February, sell-off really started to gather pace. To the upside, obviously with the S&P and the NASDAQ, the upside levels don't really exist from a market point of view, whereas on the Dow Jones they do. You've got the recent all-time high, 28,494. Most important level for me that why I would expect there to be some serious resistance would be the, the sort of the gap close from where we finished on the 21st of February, the Friday, uh, to the 24th of February on that Monday, just before the 29th handle. So that's how I see stocks, you know. These would be the levels that I'd look to go into a meeting like this, just prepared, uh, of to the upside, a dovish. And I would say it'd be a bit of surprise in my opinion. People would of course be looking at that all-time high, uh, to break and effectively turn to a support level for that push to the upside, uh, as well. Gold, and I said this in the, in the midday video for our traders and those on, uh, and Amplify Live, it's consolidating. It feels range-bound. Uh, you've got quite a clear area of resistance just above where we're trading, which this is going back to the 20th here. A nice area of support, yes, a false break there yesterday. If I was medium-term long, longer-term long gold and still sort of holding this position, I wouldn't be too worried. And if there was a dip, I probably would be looking to buy that as well. Of course, it's always, as we know, a trade what you see, not necessarily what you think. Overnight high from yesterday has been the support point today, a trendline coming from the high of the day as well, which you're gonna have to keep an eye on a dovish surprise above the trend line, and then we could be looking towards 1970, which marks a key resistance point to the downside. And if we are to see some dollar strength, if 92.50 in the dollar index does hold, the dollar pairs start coming under pressure, um, T-notes starts coming down as yields rise, a break of that low, and I wouldn't be too surprised to see us finishing the day around 1920 as well. So some important points there for, for gold. Having a look at it quickly on the daily chart just before we have a quick run over over the, uh, the currencies, you can see it has been relatively messy. But the importance of that 1900 handle, just a bit above, I think would be an area where people would be looking to get long. Because if not, it wouldn't be all too surprising to see back down towards 1860, uh, as well. The minutes, uh, from last week have acted as a bit of resistance up there, just above the 2000 handle as well. So Those that prefer to be late to the party, there are a couple options getting in above 1985 for a bit confirmation, or the ultimate confirmation above 2024 for long back to the all-time highs that we've seen. Quick look over the euro, uh, today had pushed lower, although that's back pretty quickly. Another market that's very much stuck in this range. You can see a clear high, you've got a nice area of support on the lows with a false break. Which led to the move higher. I would be, you know, patiently waiting a break either way. Let the market tell you what's going on. Above on the futures, 1.1855 interests me, and a break below 1.1790 interests me to the downside. Other than that, I'm kind of sitting on my hands. Hopefully there's some moves, uh, today, but if not on the euro, wait for that range to really get out of hand before getting involved. The pound is knocking on the door. 1.32, 1 test, 2 test, 3 test, 4 test. Keep a watch on that because we could be very close to also breaking this trend line that you see from the higher than 19th. A break of that and the higher than 19th could well be your target. To the downside, the low of the day, much like the euro and gold, has been a previous high from the week, and that's acted as a good level of support Key level for me to the downside where I'd get worried about the pound really pushing lower would be 131.17. Solid support yesterday, solid support afternoon on Tuesday, and resistance prior to that as well. Thanks, and back over to you guys. I look forward to, uh, Jerome Powell speaking shortly. Should be a good one.

Yeah, we got, we got 4 minutes. I'll, um, as per usual, I'll play the live announcement from the Squawk guys over my microphone, so I'll keep it open. I guess just, uh, for any of those new relatively to trading a news-driven event, uh, there's a couple of questions that came through the YouTube chat. Um, yeah, definitely would be clearing the deck of any open position at this point if you're holding intraday at least, because even though there is, I'd say, a fairly fixed baseline scenario of what we expect to happen, if that doesn't, there's obviously, as Alex was talking about, um, the market is vulnerable. I like the way he phrased that because I think it's absolutely true in that sense that You know, if he doesn't live up to the expectation now, the market could see a significant pullback, and particularly in equities, given how stretched we are with the big push-up and surge we've had the last couple of days. But the other thing is as well, now we've got literally 3 minutes until the, till the comments come out. Very important now to just remain composed, because I think otherwise, if you are quite new to trading these news-driven events, what can happen now is the market really thins out You can see the dollar is at session lows now. The DXY taking a bit of a hit. It's dollar-led because the DXY is now down a third. It's broken the overnight kind of intraday low. And you can see— well, hang about, it looks like it's come out early. Looks like it's come out early. Fed's Powell: Fed will now target 2% inflation on average. So Fed makes historical change to monetary strategy. Committee will seek to achieve 2% inflation over time 'Fed may aim for inflation above 2% to hit average if inflation runs persistently below target.' So an early release here, a few minutes before. Dollar getting hit on the back of that then, and that's what's explaining that little pop we've had here in the currency pairs. 'Powell says he will discuss the framework review in his remarks.' So it looks like coming out a little bit earlier here than intended. So again, the FOMC is to seek, achieve an average 2% inflation over time, may aim for inflation 2% to hit average if inflation persistently below target. So let me share my screen so you can see. But guys, if you want to jump in and share your particular charts, I know. But here I've got Eurodollar cable on the top. So we've had a pop here on that dollar weakness. Equities looks like very tame. But as Alex was saying, don't forget equities are way up anyway. And so you were always going to see the least payoff probably possible on the back of that. Gold, little flutter on the upside, uh, within sight around $3 or $4 of $63.50. That would be the intraday, um, late or early Asia-Pacific session. For the T-note market though, bottom right, unmoved really, hasn't really altered the game at all. So I'd say the reaction here that's most prevalent is definitely from the FX side of things for the time being. But I'm gonna have a quick skim through the report in itself. So, uh, Alex, what's your take on the initial flurry?

Yeah, we still got to listen to the speech. There's no mention of forward guidance there. Um, be interested to see whether this move's sustained or not. You see the dovish reaction, as you were saying. Um, Yields not that really convinced, but I wonder if this, um, wonder if it reverses. It's too early to tell that at the moment.

That'd be interesting to see his, um, Yeah, be interested to see a couple of these charts. Yeah, I mean, of course it's still early days, isn't it? Uh, initial dovish push seen across the board there. Gold up to a new trend line. I'd have that on. Obviously we talked about this being the top of the range. I wouldn't be bigger to be buying gold just with this. It's always worthwhile just thinking about where we close, and because it's, you know, such a key you know, event and meeting, a bit more confirmation isn't the worst thing in the world. 15-minute closes could be something you, you pay a bit of attention to here. It's just gone up to the high of the day where the fast money is going to book some profit, uh, and people obviously would be looking at the same. So if we can close above that and also the high of the day, so if we close above 1963, uh, and change, you know, that would be a bit of confirmation for me to get excited. The euro obviously has popped above the range we talked about, but it's currently below. So again, just be patient, don't feel the need to jump into these markets. And the pound as well breaks the trend line, but we're currently pretty much bang on it. So where do we close these candles? 15 minutes would be something I'd look at to see whether the market actually believes the hype or not.

It's still early days.

Yeah, I was just going to, um Come on, can you see my screen at the minute with the comments?

No, you need to stop sharing or— hold on, right. So here I've got the comments, and these— this is the full board comments of everything he said. So again, updated full monty kind of releasing of the new strategy: will target average inflation, put emphasis on broad and inclusive employment, Fed places employment before inflation in new monetary policy strategy, said it will seek to ensure that employment does not fall short of its maximum level. The committee now seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2% over time, will offset periods of weak inflation with inflation above 2% for some period of time. Um, just having a quick look, the Fed judges that downward risk to employment inflation have increased, and hence the reason why I guess they've gone forward with this type of definitive now statement. The Fed Committee judges that the level of federal funds rate consistent with longer-run maximum employment, price stability have declined relative to its historical average. The overall net sum of this here is— I don't— the Fed has kind of delivered, I guess. So remember what Alex was saying, you could get a knee-jerk it's kind of knee-jerk. He delivers, you get an unwind of that outside bet that perhaps he wasn't going to, you get a pop in the dollar, then it comes back. Ultimately, now the dollar might well resume a downward trend over the coming days and weeks, but in terms of the pop right now, perhaps then that, that move has kind of happened to that respect. For the equity market, my initial interpretation is it just means that we won't sell off. It doesn't mean we're necessarily going to rocket higher now in equities. It just means then that that downside risk I thought was quite, quite tangible in terms of if he didn't— if they didn't come out with more concrete information. They have— markets are already high in the equity space, so they just remain where we are. We almost— perhaps it's a period now of consolidation, reason to consolidate this phenomenal gains that we've had in the Treasury market, uh, starting to get a little bit of a bite now, uh, 10-year just moving a little higher. Gold as well, we are just keeping an eye on that near-term point of resistance from, uh, overnight in the Asia-Pacific session. But yeah, I'd say overall this— the baseline expectation has been fulfilled, and these moves, although there are some, are relatively contained, and I think that is appropriate for what's been released here from the Fed. But as Alex said, we've still got to hear from the man himself. And perhaps then what else has he got to say? Could be quite interesting.

Yeah, I'm just going to quickly jump on as well. Like you said, gold and T-notes perfectly correlated again. T-notes moving higher and so is gold. I think that'd be my favorite trade. But if the, you know, looking at the price action versus the news, if, if these major FX pairs like cable, cable can't get above $32.50. And if the euro can't push on— although they are starting to push on now— if they can't, then I'll be looking for that to reverse. But, you know, gold's definitely my favorite trade here to the upside. The treasury yields, um, coming lower. Yeah, I just want to try that.

Sorry, Sam, gold, you want to bring that up and have a chat about that?

Literally about to share that because you are starting to get this, this push. And this is, this is key. You want to be thinking about, uh, do we get the confirmation here? And the 15-minute candle closes, of course, are due very shortly. The pound, are we about to confirm a break above the high of the day? The euro, same sort of question. And obviously gold potentially leading the way here. Let's have a quick look at 60-minute because you can see those levels above which should offer another area of resistance. You've got the high that we had on the 24th, the 24th being the Monday, so high of the week. And of course, people will be looking at that for an area to continue a trend to the upside. Next level above that, you've got, you've got a zone here, and this is what I talked about this on the Sunday video, uh, and of course others. It's, you've got this area of support. If you remember this sell-off we had a couple of Tuesdays ago we had a really key support point, broke down, and then obviously acted as resistance as it came back. So just mark those up as well. The futures, that's 1982, uh, and then 1989 as well. And you can see that high then turns out to be the previous Tuesday's, uh, low as well. That worked out to be a fantastic area of resistance on that next, uh, next move. I agree with Alex, you know, a dovish move here, uh, suits gold the best. It's the longest off that sort of recent high that it's had. So yeah, I, I quite like the look of that. Let's have a quick look at this trend line here. Didn't turn out to be one, um, but interestingly, we're starting to extend here now. We're through that high, the 15-minute candle, you know, confirming that. You'd expect the other currency pairs to do the same. You know, pound confirms it, euro, uh, as well. Equities, let's have a quick look. It's trying, isn't it? But as Anthony Cheung said, it's already quite high for now. One of the, the strategies we talked about, uh, when looking at equities was that continuation above the all-time high in the S&P. Be careful because it's just, you know, flirting around there now. It wouldn't be pulling the trigger just yet. I don't think there's anything wrong with having a bit of patience, waiting for that confirmation, using it as support for that push to the upside, and also keeping a watch on 3479, which has been resistance once, twice, three times. How about the fourth? But yeah, we're getting, uh, getting that confirmation through. Gold is almost up to, yeah, that 1982, which we said was a key level as well. So keep a watch on that.

Cool. Well, look, is there anyone who's got any questions at this point that we can help with? Otherwise we'll look to wrap things up and then just see how things play out. But yeah, S&P new highs.

New highs.

Are you out of your medium-term long?

I, I, I'm still in it, but as of last night And it was the right thing to do. I did take a bit off. So yeah, I am. I mean, now obviously it doesn't look a great decision, but at the end of the day, we'll be what it is. And I think there'll be a little pullback to come soon, and I'll be all over that. So yeah, yeah, I'm still in overall, but not as much.

Silver, as someone—

yeah, Paul said That's acting, you know, quite aggressively here, uh, almost up to some resistance that we had back on the 19th, a real key level double top from there, which happened to be support the day before that. So keep a, a key eye on silver coming up. Let me just share my chart for that really key level here. Silver, uh, be interesting to see how we react. Reason I say it's key, it's going back here to show you that double top area of support, real nice breakdown retest and we're coming into that now. You'd expect some profit taking here, but above there, you know, could be, could be looking at those sort of highs that we had from the 18th, uh, again coming through. Euro trying to extend almost at the R2, which is the high, but most importantly for me, it finishes above this level here, 1.1855, because then I'd expect a bigger push to the upside. Still with some big hurdles to come before reaching the high of the year, which is obviously a multi-year high as well. Most notably here from, uh, that sell-off that we had across the board, uh, last Wednesday on the minutes. But 119.27, key levels being tested now across the board. Silver, you can see just coming up to it. Uh, you've got to imagine gold is, uh, near its high and on the other two almost that are Uh, but the zone, remember I started to talk about that zone, it's testing that now. The pound on the high, tested and trying to break through the high for the year. Dollar's getting hit.

Yeah, it's interesting, like one, I just saw an interesting comment. So two, uh, first one is obviously the dollar's weakening at the moment, but there's a, there's a good FX strategist that I follow and he was just commenting initially, the snap reaction, that's fine, the dollar's weakening now over what's been a kind of dovish follow-through from the commitment of average inflation targeting being adopted. But don't forget, the Fed, like Alex was saying in the preview, the Fed always go first. The Fed are always leading. That's just the natural course of modern monetary policy. They're always the first. And that means then that the ECB, the Bank of England, do they now follow? And so in terms of ultimately, does this heighten the bar? Now, we are expecting further increases to, say, ECB purchasing of bonds, for example, does that then offset what otherwise would just be a runaway story for those major currency pairs on the back of dollar depreciation? So what I mean by is, over the medium term, this guy's suggesting, is it sustainable? Because other central banks will also follow and adapt and adopt this more dovish stance, which will converge then those two kind of divergences of policy. The other thing is some, someone's having a pop at me about exiting their gold, uh, before because they were long. They put it on a few minutes before. Do you know what? I've taken a lot of, uh, a lot of stuff in my day of traders. I'll take that every day. And, and you want to know why? Because yeah, you could have cashed in that $1,000, sure, as you said, but too many times the market will not go your way. You cannot go into a news-driven event, no matter how sure you are, when the downside is really meaningful to the point of complete self-destruction of your trading account. It is always better to de-risk ahead of an uncertain news-driven event, always, if you're trading intraday markets. Otherwise, yeah, it might have gone your way this time, and in hindsight, rearview mirror, it looks great, but the next time it would have absolutely decimated you. And the market holds no prisoners. So I'll take that criticism. If you got out of that trade, I'll take it, because ultimately, um, it's the right decision you made. You lose, you lose some money today, you make money tomorrow. It's just the way it goes.

Yeah, absolutely agree. It's the right thing to do. I mean, for me now, it's It's painful looking at the S&P, you know, going higher with having taken a bit off it last night, but it's 100% the right thing to do. And that's how you stay in this game long enough, is keeping disciplined. And, uh, yeah, imagine Powell says the opposite and suddenly your trade's, you know, massively down on something you shouldn't have done on an intraday basis. But yeah, you're getting extensions here, uh, across the board. Um, I think that the person who was having it— having a go was saying they're long again now, so So it's going well for them, but you know, that's the way to do it. That is the way to do it. You know, that advice there from Anthony is golden. You know, you can get the opportunity to get in. We're testing that zone right now in gold, real key level here.

Question, guys, for you two, given that I know you're heavily involved with the guys who do our training programs. Question about when would be then the time Like, when would you have got into gold on the back of this? I guess you need to look at a shorter time frame to think about entry point on that break of the overnight high. How would you have tackled it as a— if you were going to get long at that point?

Alex, you want to—

depends like what your time frame is. Uh, you can trade it intraday. You could have traded gold above the high of the day, would have been one of my favorites, or that trend line that Sam mentioned. Um, or if you're looking for the swing, like, I would be happy sort of looking to get long maybe tomorrow or like Monday and looking for the swing back to the highs. Give it a day or so, see what happens. These moves could reverse, you know. Um, so yeah, you can trade. We've got traders in the chat room that trade the fast money pop higher, but I like to sort of just wait and see what happens and then hit the first pullback and then trade for the bigger— trade for the bigger move. And so there's two different ways you can do that. Cool.

Well, look, um, gonna, gonna bring the session to a close because I know you guys need to get back to, back to business. But, um, yeah, I hope that— hopefully that was useful for everyone. Um, the guys in, um, the live Zoom, the private chat room, we'll see you in there in a moment. we can continue this conversation for the guys on the Amplify program. Um, separately, I had a really good interview with a super senior options trader this morning, and I'm going to share that on Saturday. So if you haven't already done so, make sure you subscribe to the channel. I'm going to schedule it for release at midday London time on Saturday. It's a really interesting— it's about 25 minutes long. He goes into some basic option theory for those which is— it's a new concept for you, but he also talks about some of the ways in which he's traded so far, some of the volatility in 2020. And it's, uh, yeah, really interesting talk. So that will come out on Saturday. Otherwise, guys, thank you very much as ever.

Thanks, guys.

Thank you, guys. Thanks for joining everyone.

Yeah, thank you.

Have a lovely weekend.

Yeah, yeah, guys.

Cool. Take care, guys.

Bye.