LIVE ECB Interest Rate Decision - 10th September 2020

No one knows. I look like a hoarder by the time we finish with all this stuff behind me.

Cool, we are live on YouTube.

Okay, cool. So hello everyone, thanks for joining us as ever. And hello to the people on Amplify Live and Amplify Now and our traders. Hopefully we can take you through the latest ECB event. Obviously it's set to be a fairly Interesting one, actually. And hopefully you managed to watch over the briefing this morning. I tried to my best to articulate in as easiest fashion as possible the kind of different permutations this event could play out. And Alex obviously wrote a really good blog as well at the beginning of the week that I'm sure many of you have read to kind of add a bit of context to how we arrived at this point in time. There is, Sam, if you manage the chat for the moment, the chat on the YouTube as well. But yeah, just one of the things there. I'm going to jump straight in. Sam, Will will join us as well. You might need to make him a co-host when he does. If you can do the same for me as well, please, just so I can share the graphic. So hopefully Tom Barrington has Yeah, my plant, that doesn't say a lot about me, does it? My plant is feeling the pain at the moment. Yeah, my kind of cliché piece of greenery to try and lighten my working from home. Not doing a very good job, but a good observation.

Okay, cool.

Well, look, let me go straight in. This is really all I want to talk about. I just want to use this as really sharing the main description of everything. And then this for me is the easiest way to, to plan and strategize accordingly for how today might play out. One of the main things I was trying to allude to in the debriefing this morning was that I actually think that a lot of the action potentially that might have been a byproduct of this announcement forthcoming the sting might have been taken out of the tail by the source comments. And we have— we've had a pretty meaningful move back higher in the euro currency. And if I quickly just transition my, my screen here, so this is looking at the euro, and obviously this was the pop that we had yesterday in the euro on the back of those sources that were kind of talking up the notion of actually you might see an upgrade of growth as to not being so pessimistic for this year. Other forecasts left relatively unchanged. And that type of thing, I think, was for me, that's a purposeful move by the ECB to manage what otherwise would have been a market by positioning sense, expecting something to be delivered in a dovish sense, whatever that might take, whether it's a comment on the actual euro currency whether it's about the PEP and timings, or in fact even more dovish being then a delivery of an increase to that. I think what they did yesterday, I mean, if they're talking about not altering and becoming, if anything, more positive on their forecasts, for me that has completely discounted the risk of them doing PEP today. Why would you drip feed in source comments so timely around the meeting? Of a positive nature if you were genuinely concerned about downside risk requiring more quantitative easing in the form of these pandemic emergency purchases. So for me, the dovish extreme outcomes— so let's just jump straight back to here— for me, these dovish extreme outcomes of a surprise stimulus front-loading the PEP, a $300 billion increase or the kitchen sink. I definitely think the latter is off. I think number 3 is off, uh, just given the context of what's happened. Source comments, or when a credited news agency like Bloomberg does comment that according to people familiar with the matter— I know the inner workings of these news organizations, and trust me when I say that is the ECB saying that. It's not like the janitor has overheard a conversation and he thinks he heard them say XYZ. This is the informal route of communication ECB adopts to convey messaging to the market in order to prepare it for a news-driven event. Remember, the objective ultimately is that they do not spook the market, and so therein lies the kind of management of volatility by conveying this through using the media. So actually, if I was going to pick a scenario here, my baseline would be kind of a hybrid, I guess, of 1 and 2, perhaps in the middle. I don't think that they're gonna—

that I don't think they're gonna do an increase right now.

Could they hint towards doing one? Perhaps, because the market is expecting, as per that Bloomberg survey issued last week, about everyone thinks that it's going to be increased by roughly $350 billion extended from middle of next year to the end of next year. I think that stuff will come, and the ECB, as with every Western central bank since the pandemic onset, has been very proactive at really giving more, not less. So I don't think, I don't think that would come as too much of a shock.

How to interpret that from an asset class perspective, as I discussed in the briefing, the euro might be a little bit tricky, in fact. I'll leave the charts for the other guy, Sam, um, to, to go through a bit more detail. But, um, how this has worked before is the euro is actually appreciated even though they've done more monetary easing, which is the opposite of traditional kind of economics would suggest. And the reason for that is during the heightened panic of pandemic in, in March and April when the ECB was really over-delivering, as was every central bank including the Fed, That was because we were on the precipice of an economic disaster then. So they needed to throw literally the kitchen sink at it. So not seeing the worst case materialize was seen as relief and the euro would rally. Now we're at a point of relative stabilization. I'm not sure you'll get— it's quite as clean as it was before. We were in such a state of panic before, anything is positive for the euro to help the situation economically not be so bad. Now perhaps a little bit more mixed. From an equity point of view, I think perhaps a little bit more clear, because if they just intonate towards expanding the purchase program later, well, that's good for equities. If they do it now, that's good for equities. So I think it's a little bit more lopsided in that respect. Final points here: remember the opening statement at 12:45 The FT sources were speculating there will be an actual nod in the language specifically about the euro, which they haven't done for 2 years. So that's going to be really important, how symbolically do they reference what has been a recent rhetoric of concern about the strength of the euro. Yeah, so that reaction effect is probably going to come from that comment alone. How aggressive are they in talking down the euro, or what we call jawboning it down, is going to be quite a definitive thing. The other thing that is going to be the— what do they do? You'll find that out at 12:45, the statement. And then when we do the Q&A, Q&A, obviously she's going to be asked about the Fed have done average inflation targeting, what are you going to do would be a key one. The pandemic and the resurgence of new case rates in the likes of France, Spain, and so on will probably be asked. So what does she think about that? And then also those projections, the latest projections are coming out, but we kind of already know somewhat what they're going to entail given the sources yesterday. But yeah, that's pretty much it to add on to what I covered in the briefing. But I've got, got Will on the line as well, which is great to have his experience on board. So going into an event like this, Will, is there any kind of final words of advice or or things you'd like to share?

Yeah, I mean, very much from my perspective, all about psychology, obviously. And you'll have the urge to jump on the first thing that you hear. I think this is one of the hardest, one of the hardest events to trade, to be honest. I mean, we've seen so many monetary policy events take place over the last few years. And one of the most famous, I remember 2016, actually, that's when the bazooka got released and the euro went higher rather than lower. So stops in place, strategy in place. But if it doesn't work out, if you do lose money on that first trade, please, please, please just take a step back, review why did that happen, breathe before you make the next trading decision.

Good luck, guys. Cool.

And then Sam or, or Alex, do you want to jump on and go maybe, Sam, a couple levels?

Yeah, I can have a quick, quick flick over. Um, let me just bring up the charts. I was just doing a video for, for the in-house guys on, on the euro, and it's It's funny because I've been away Monday, Tuesday, and yesterday, and the euro is exactly where I left it on Friday. It's funny how these, these things happen. But that said, the low of yesterday is such an important level.

If I just show—

no, this is going back to the, the end part of August here. You can see— and let me just bring in this rectangle— the importance of the level we hit. We hit it on Tuesday evening, yesterday early morning and then sort of around midday, and we couldn't break through it. And now we're pushing higher. A couple of the dollar pairs have followed suit, but where we finish the day— and, you know, tomorrow, make that the week— is going to be incredibly important. Do we push back down towards that 1.1750, and then do we start looking just a bit below that at 1.1718? Because these are massive support levels. You can see this sort of mid-part to end of August, early September, we just couldn't push lower. Such solid support that if we are to see a bit of a, you know, a hawkish move, um, you know, today from, from the ECB and we push on, uh, you know, those, those lows could be the lows for a while. That 120 is obviously the, the main, uh, resistance level talks about, but before we would get there, you can just see the importance of this whole region here. A lot of resistance found this morning above that. Just be aware, uh, real key level coming in at 118.61 on the futures. Solid resistance going back here to the 4th, the 3rd, and also overnight, uh, sort of the evening of the 2nd. The most important level before that 120, I would say, is this area here just around that 119 handle. This sell-off really, uh, started to, to sort of take place once we broke that in the morning. Uh, so that would be probably that the top end of where I'd expect things to, to go today. But that said, a close above here and we are looking towards that 120 again, back below the low of yesterday, and then you are really talking about this whole support point. And it's really nicely set. Just to say, you know, the other dollar-related markets, you've got the Aussie dollar has been doing something similar and pushing higher from yesterday, finding some resistance and the pound, which has obviously been taking a battering, did the same and started to come up. Focus absolutely is going to be on the euro here, the DAX, and the Bund. But set up really, really nicely. Alex, anything you, uh, you would like to add? Got a couple minutes.

Yeah, and I can come on afterwards as well. I'm really interested to see what actually happens. Um, I think if they talk down the euro, you might get a little flash lower, but I don't think it will last long, and I'll definitely buy the dip. I'd buy the dip above 1.17. I think 1.17 is my sort of line in the sand. Um, bullish above, bearish below. And I agree with Ant's analysis as well about the PEPP. And if they follow through with the source comments from yesterday, I reckon we go higher straight off the bat. So I'm not sure, I'm not sure what I think just yet. I want the report to come out. And as Will was saying, wait and then see what happens and jump on something.

Yeah, I think that's the best thing to finish on. We've got a couple, we've got about 20 seconds or so. I'll put my squawk on, but yeah, no need to rush with these things. There's kind of, you know, it's very nuanced to the language, so just, you know, hold fire, digest, and then take action accordingly should it be warranted. Okay, a couple seconds.

10 seconds.

I'll play it through my mic. Anthony Cheung, just unchanged on rates as expected.

Just look at the contents of the statement.

So in terms of forward guidance on rates, that has been maintained.

At the existing guidance in terms of the size of the PEPP program. This appears to be held at €1.35 trillion. So that's unchanged on rates, PEPP, and forward guidance on the PEPP program. Also to continue his purchases until at least the end of June 2021. So with the size and the length of the program has been held at existing levels. These are to reinvest their PEPP principles until at least the end of 2022. Just having a quick scan there, I can't see any explicit comments here on the interest rate, just having it on the FX rate rather. Just having a quick scan through the statement now, it does appear to be much of the same.

Yeah, let me just turn the squawk off for a second. I mean, my initial interpretation here, the price action says it all. I mean, they've done pretty much the baseline of what we're expecting, which is this is kind of like a holder meeting because they've already deployed a large envelope in this pandemic program of €1.35 trillion, don't forget. And that's big enough to be able to continue purchasing for many months until they actually need to increase. And with things like coronavirus still to really show its hand of the, the winter period and if it's going to get worse and how bad that will economically impact, then reopenings of economies. There's a lot to still contemplate. So better to hold back perhaps and then have some ammunition for to use later on down the line when it's going to be more perhaps needed under a negative scenario if it plays out. Not forgetting as well, we have the whole US election, US-China rhetoric is probably going to intensify into that. So maybe they just want to hold, hold a little bit back. And quickly here, just looking at the statement, this is the actual ECB statement and changes, and there's none. Um, there really isn't any. I mean, I can't see any clear, um, conversation as well about the, the actual euro exchange rate. So perhaps that's going to come in the initial statement at the beginning of the Q&A. But if you look at the market reaction, I always kind of say this, is that as much as people look to me as to be the voice of reason fundamentally, let the chart be your guide. And nothing's happened. So there could have easily have been a shock event here of a, a Pep bazooka, but as I said, that was probably unlikely to happen just given where we're at in context, but also with the source comments yesterday. That's exactly what's happened. So no real reaction in the DAX, no reaction really in the euro, little flutter, nothing in the Bund. Now we wait and it's over to the press conference then, which will commence in just under 45 minutes. But guys, I don't know if you want to add anything from your take.

Yeah, yeah, well, I think the PEPP was priced in yesterday, and so the fact that they're not doing it might see— could potentially see a little follow-through on the upside, but it's sort of being held back by that R1 at the minute. Like you said, be interesting to hear Lagarde's comments on the euro, um, in the press conference. But like you said, no reaction. It was priced in yesterday.

It's almost like, uh, it's almost like perhaps I could be the ECB source. I was like, come on, let's just drop one in, let's prep up the market so that— look, the point being is, and hopefully I made this very clear in the briefing, was that this is the fine art of central banking. It's about minimizing market disruption. You know, we as market participants and, and you guys as traders intraday you want the ECB to make a mistake almost. You want a disconnect between what gets said and what the markets are expecting on market positioning, so it creates a trading opportunity. But I'm afraid in this case, you've been outdone by central banking strategy, which was absolutely to drop in something yesterday. They knew that this was the course of action they probably were going to follow. Because it's a multiple-day discussion before they actually announce what we're hearing today. So at that point, they probably would have looked at markets, looked at market positioning, and gone, look, we're a little bit overstretched for a dovish reaction here, or dovish outcome. We need to bump it up. It might even be the case that the forecasts don't even follow through for what the sources were saying, because the intention, if you like, has already been served. It's managed the initial fallout that perhaps could have been seen if if they did not do that activity from yesterday, from using the sources. Um, but look, let's have a look at a few other things. Sam, I can see here cable is broken down a little bit, and it looks like here technically we're just coming up to perhaps a fairly near-term area of interest from a technical perspective. You've got those lows and those highs here from yesterday's session. We've broken pivot. It's just looking a little heavy here at the moment, perhaps a touch of euro weakness just leading to a bit of dollar strength. And that's just inserting a little bit more fundamentally, which has been a negative headline on, on the pound earlier. I'm sure you guys were watching, but just to repeat, the European Council said that they would tell the GOV that the Internal Market Bill is a clear and substantive breach of withdrawal of treaty, that you would take legal action that could lead to a trade war, although not right now. I mean, look, A good question we had from one of the traders internally this morning was exactly about this. Is no deal priced in? Um, I would say no, it's not priced in. And my reasoning behind that is I think what you've got to understand here is markets have got a little bit fatigued on Brexit, and so the headlines that you're seeing are hugely sensational to a certain degree. But that is because they're serving a political narrative to negotiate. It just so happens that there's this small thing called the market that's hanging on every word. But the market's more— the market's acclimatized now that we can see and cut through that political posturing. And so at the moment, there's still time to broker a deal despite how far apart and despite the British government coming out with the market bill that they did release yesterday, Internal Market Bill, for me this is all just gamesmanship. You know, they can't actually do what they're saying in my opinion. I mean, I might be legally wrong, but the whole— we've come almost full circle of 4 years and we're still at the problematic issue of Northern Ireland. So at the end of the day, I still see a fairly orderly Brexit. I don't see that most disruptive no-deal scenario, but that does not mean that as time diminishes up to the end of the transition, which is end of the year, and obviously we're looking for some kind of simple free trade agreement to be struck in October, but it's only a couple of weeks away. I do think that a no-deal does continue to be— need to be priced in. And so here, where would be priced in? Well, Sam, you've probably got some good insight on this because I know you were looking at this a lot back in about a year ago, really, I guess. This was, remember when it was kind of nail in the coffin for Theresa May? It was the European elections. If you remember, Conservatives came like 5th or something like that. And that was when there was definitely, you know, she had been contested a number of times in her leadership. She was being criticized at every single thing that she said. And that just led them a perfect ground for the narrative of, you know, take back control and Brexit. And obviously that was a key component for Farage and his party. If you remember, they excelled in the European election at the time, and that was when Boris then came in. If you remember, when Boris was coming in, there was an increased risk of no deal, and the pound was actually coming under pressure even though he hadn't yet assumed the position of PM, because quite frankly, Gove or, um, Sajid Javid, they were never going to beat Boris. It was a bit of a— it was a, it was a 5-horse race, but there's only ever going to be one winner. And so the market had to price in his more stern rhetoric on Brexit. So for me then, that low point really starts coming in more down to these kind of areas, 121, when it comes to like no-deal territory. And we're trading up at 130 right now. So is there more room for downside on a no deal? Absolutely. I think there's more room for downside on a no deal. There's a couple of big areas to keep an eye on. 128. Now, I think this is the 100 DMA. Yeah, the 100 or 200 DMA they've been looking at, which was really, really great area of resistance for some of the upside movement that we were seeing during April, May. Breakdown of there. And then, you know, just kind of following the price back down lower then from some of the really strong moves that we've had on the back of the dollar weakness. Obviously the dollar— this isn't all just about Brexit, you're trading a pair here, so you've got to look at both fundamentals. And obviously the— I'll just move that over, you can see it if you're looking on YouTube— you've got to be understanding then how the election in the US will intensify up the global macro order of influence. And so therefore dollar movement might well start to, start to really show its hand a little bit more We've had a bit of recovery from being very low. Where do we go from here? And so yeah, a couple of, couple of things to, to mention. But well, yeah, what do you guys think about the whole Sterling no deal pricing?

I think it's, it's got to happen, and we've seen that from, from the market coming down. I think that 120 is, is a really good point where, you know, if that no deal rhetoric really does pick up and and people decide to believe it or have to price it in, then yeah, we come back down towards that. However, you know, I'm still of the view that no deal isn't going to happen, so I view any move lower in the pound, um, you know, a good opportunity to then buy once we have to start unwinding that. And we've had that a couple of times now with the pound, obviously most recently with, uh, Boris Johnson coming into power and You know, I remember being in the office with you when that 120 initially went and turned out to be such a golden place to get long. I think we could go lowest 115, but, you know, that would be a long time away. Interestingly, the level where we're trading now in the pound, or just below that 130.12, is going to be massive for where we close the week. From a technical point of view, it's like if you want to buy the dip here, because you think maybe, uh, it's been a bit over-exaggerated, this move lower. The, the 200-day moving average and that 1.28 handle previous high from sort of June, July is a good place. And then on the flip side, if you want to see further downside, you wouldn't want to be long below that. So yeah, I think, uh, I think over the coming weeks you'd be brave to, to be buying right now, but I think there's a good opportunity to get long lower down, you know, get a sort of October rally that we saw last year, something similar. But like you said, I think the most important thing, or one of the most important things, is it's a pair. And it might be that the best opportunity here is actually EURGBP or GBPJPY, for example, whereas, you know, cable, you've got the other side of it where We've had a weaker dollar for since March, you know, this is welcome for any dollar bulls, but there's no guarantee that's going to keep, keep going and going and going. So, uh, Alex, what do you reckon? I know you're a fan of the euro pound, being a better advocate for this trade.

Yeah, I mean, the euro pound has been a wicked trade, um, my favorite. I will, um, I'll share my screen. Yeah, it's just been a beast. And, um, and now we're testing that. I prefer the euro pound because the dollar's weak and because the Brexit— the no-deal Brexit trade is a weak pound trade. I don't— if the dollar starts weakening, it slows cable. I just think this move here has been a lot cleaner in the euro pound. And, um, we're testing now those July highs. And this big resistance area up here, and it's just been like, yeah, it's just been relentless. And now the euro is starting to see some follow-through off the back of no PEPP with the cable on the lows. We are really sort of testing that area now. And, um, yeah, it's just been a brilliant trade, and it could go higher as we get closer and closer to October 31st. And the stalemate continues, I think cable goes lower.

Yeah, no, I'd agree with that. Fundamentally, you've got nice narratives playing out that are diverging in a way that'd be very supportive for that cross. But in euro, with euro-dollar moving to highs now, I think one of the interesting things here is that because the ECB haven't said anything really definitive, Obviously, then what's going to be quite key for Lagarde, she's got to come out now and try and pour some cold water over this idea that the ECB are genuinely concerned about the euro, and they have to control it. Because technically speaking, I don't know if perhaps one of you guys more technical perspective, but if you look at the euro, obviously, we've traded in the euro at such a key long-term level that they've managed so far to, to bring back in line after we had that big push-up that we had, of course, into that, that long-standing trend line from '08, 2014. It got to that kind of critical juncture of 120, 120.5, and I think that was really important because that they came in and started what we call jawboning the currency to a certain degree, trying to push it back down, because a break here it goes 125, and the situation gets worse very quickly.

So I think the ECB officials were very mindful of that. And this is happening or would happen at the worst possible time because the tangible risks on Brexit and also on COVID-19 going into the winter are probably at their most sharpest point at the moment in terms of potentially worsening, not improving. Um, so I'm just quite keen now when the press conference gets underway. I actually think it's quite a challenge now for Lagarde to control the euro moving higher here because she can't say too much because then that commits her to a certain course of action. I just wonder what she's got in the toolbox to try and tame it. And given that I'm saying it's quite difficult does that then give an opportunity here for the euro to just kind of grind it out up higher? Because if she's explicit, you know, you can't be that as a central banker, because by doing so, then you, you've committed, and that's the worst thing that they can do, because then they're almost doomed to fail, and they lose credibility, they lose an ability to influence markets. Ultimately, that's very destructive for their management of, of market volatility. Um, but yeah, look, I've just said in the, uh, chat, and I open it out to everyone, any questions? We've got a bit of time, got about 30 minutes till the press conference begins. Um, so while we're on, we're absolutely more than happy to talk about Amplify, talk about any chart, any products. I'm sure we can hopefully add a view on, whether fundamentally or technically. So just fire away. I'm more than happy to help.

Yeah, there was a, a question which I think would be good to come from you, and me and Alex can always answer it, but it was from, uh, The Demo Trader. What do you, uh, well, I think there's a little typo there, but what do you mean by priced in trades, uh, that were in prior days? So I guess ahead of the ECB, just sort of talking about, you know, or any release, what do we mean when we say something is, is priced in?

Yeah, so I guess the easiest way to explain this is if you, if you think about what defines the value of an asset at this given point in time, it's derived from what are people's forward-looking expectations. So for example, the euro, um, pound is falling because there's an increased tangible risk of no deal. No deal's not happened. Brexit hasn't— well, Brexit legally, I guess we've left, but it hasn't really happened yet. The point is that the pound is pricing in the prospect of what the future holds. Right now, given the recent rhetoric we've had, that's causing people to see then the potential for an increased probability of a more disruptive disorderly Brexit, because not only might we go through transition and have a some sort of trade agreement, if the UK reneges on its withdrawal agreement, they're gonna get sued by the EU. So this in itself would be very problematic for then the speed and recovery of the UK. So when we talk about pricing in, people then are listening to today's news and that is altering their trajectory about what they think the future will look like. And in this case, the economic recovery in the UK given the monetary policy and the fiscal policy in place, the recovery kind of looks like this, quite sharp and pronounced in 2021. So it does look globally. However, it's not that we're going to just go further negative. I mean, we're, we're negative 20-odd percent at the moment in the UK. The only way is up. Um, that doesn't necessarily mean that we're in a great situation. There potentially could be millions of people unemployed at the end of furlough, for example. But the point is, is that the speed and trajectory of the recovery is altering every, every minute of every day. And people trade this change in interest rate expectation, if you like. This is what people would trade if they were trading like short-term interest rate futures. But even if people are trading things like the pound, for example, or the FTSE, they're basically trading what are these biggest tangible risks to these products. And what is the end outcome of them, which defines then the value of them in today's world. There are more technical ways you can do this. You can look at— I'm sure Alex can talk about this a little bit because I know he, he tracks it very often— is look at open commercial, non-commercial holdings of futures positions in the marketplace. Is the market overtly long or short? The, the idea being here is if you can, you know, there was a point where— do you remember when everyone was really thinking there was going to be a no-deal Brexit 12, 18 months ago? The market was so short that whenever there was negative news that came out, it didn't really impact that much. One glimmer of positive news— if everyone's short, you have one little sliver of positivity and the market shoots up massive. But that's a function of market positioning from a, from a technical point of view, a functional point of view of the open contracts that are representation of the actual price that we're looking at. You can also then throw in the options market. You can start looking at implied volatility. You can start then trying to define the type of over reference periods in the future, what type of volatility we can anticipate in a currency. So for example, some of the analysis we were looking at was that in the last 3 ECB meetings, both the euro and equities have reacted positively in post— the few hours after the event. But the implied options, implied volatility was looking for a move around 0.55% in the euro, I think it was, for today's movement. And look, we've not— we've not got anywhere near that. So there's a number of things that we actually track in reality to make these assumptions about being priced in. And I know it feels like it's a little bit like finger in the air, is it priced in? But there's ways to articulate it in a more technical form. And hopefully that explanation kind of covers that. But yeah, I won't go any further than that. I don't want to open up a can of worms and start talking about things that are going to confuse people. Um, yeah, Andrea's saying it's all priced— it's all priced in. Um, if we had to choose— okay, this is an open question for all of us— if you had to choose one trade to take right now and leave it running for the rest of the year, what's it going to be?

Long equities. Yeah, same.

Long equities or or gold, I guess. And if you want to go specific about which equity market, you'd say NASDAQ, I would say. Nice pullback as well to give you some room to go and, and push on.

Um, yeah, I mean, for the rest of the year, or for a year, what was the question?

Until the end of the year? Yeah, I mean, we've got a couple of shouts. I know, uh, Tim wants me to like juice up his Zoom position. Give Zoom a bit of a pump. Um, obviously, uh, you know, to be honest though, if you were looking at Zoom's shares, and, you know, I know nothing really of the financial metrics of Zoom from a, from a balance sheet perspective, but what I would say is that, um, don't— I, I wouldn't even think of Zoom by its financial metrics. I would think of Zoom, and if I was going to purchase Zoom shares now, which are massively elevated in the context of their recent price history since the pandemic. Think about then, what does the workplace look like in October, November, December, January, February? If you think the COVID-19 situation is going to get worse, which is going to lead to more localized lockdowns, more perhaps threats of national lockdowns, which means that people can't actually go to work then even though Zoom is massively overvalued, there's still value there. If your COVID belief layered with your timing of vaccination implementation distribution being delayed, let's say, then yeah, you'd be long Zoom. And even though it's like high, can it go higher? Well, look at Tesla. Tesla's a good example though. It goes up and up and up and up and up. It does get to a point where it also, you know, the quicker you rise, the harder you fall. So you've just got to manage, I think, it accordingly. In my experience, I think you can do two things here, one contrasting. You either buy Tesla and then you park it on the shelf where, I don't know, maybe everyone's got like a dictionary at home. How often do you pick up the actual dictionary? The physical dictionary hardly ever, but it's on your bookshelf. That would be Tesla shares. You could approach it that way, have it, and just be safe in the knowledge that one day, yes, definitely Elon Musk, Tesla will do some fine things and they will be spearheading technology and that company will over time get better and bigger and the share price will rise. That's one way, that's talking long, long term where it can be offside, it can go negative. You're holding the cash shares, you know your downside, it's not leveraged, let it play out. Or you can try trading it. But all I would say in that perspective is you need to be realistic that the price is gonna rise and fall. So therefore you've gotta be pretty strict, I think, with your risk that you're taking. I think you've gotta be very proactive in how you're managing it. I don't think you can afford to really sit in a trade for long periods of time because of the nature of what we've just seen. The Tesla shares turn 20% in one day and that's it, you get absolutely killed. So you either one or the other. I like the other. Yeah, I'll take a bit of Tesla, but would I want the, the heart attack every half an hour? Uh, to be honest, I can live my life without that kind of stress. I'd rather just have it, hold it, and then, uh, it will go in the box with all the other ones that I'll reopen in 20 years' time when they'll be 50 times the value of what they are today, kind of strategy. But look, each to their own. I'm not a Robinhood— I'm the opposite of a Robinhood trader, I guess, by de facto explaining what I'm saying. Yeah, Tim, I'll take my 10% of whatever Zoom goes up as of this point forward, please. What about you guys then? What, any, um, anything else of interest at the minute?

I got in a little bit of Tesla yesterday morning actually. I saw, saw 20% lower and I said, well, there's no way I'm not getting in on that. But that's either going to be a short-term trade or an investment. We'll soon find out. But yeah, I mean, listen, if you're holding for, for long periods you know, these, these moves are going to happen, especially these stocks that go parabolic. They've got to come down at some stage. And is that the opportunity to get in? Yeah, I think so. I, I think, um, I'd stay with— yeah, in terms of a market for the rest of the year, I'd go NASDAQ. I think gold is, is, uh, it's a medium term. It's still got a way to go to the upside, but you know, it's sort of stalled for a bit for now.

Okay, well, just quickly then, while we've got a bit of a gap now between the press conference coming on, just going to quickly do a bit of housekeeping. So if you don't already follow us on Twitter, it's quite a good way just to keep on top of For any of those who aren't part of the Amplify community, I'll talk about Amplify in a second, but we're quite active, all three of us generally tweeting day to day. We tweet on kind of different things, I guess, depending on our specialist kind of area. Me, much more on the kind of the macro fundamentals, geopolitics. I'd say Alex and Sam doing what they do full-time trading, it's more about setups and levels and ideas, these sorts of things. So yeah, feel free to, to follow me. You can always ask me any questions and things like that, but I'm kind of sharing useful crib sheets and graphics and things like that, uh, every day. Uh, Sam, you can follow— oh, it's got a new picture, Sam! What? Look at—

okay, okay.

So Sam, you can follow, you just search his name Sam North and his handle is @snorth 19. And for Alex, Alex Clark, congratulations in order. This is his new fiancée as of this week, so massive congratulations to him, uh, and the couple. But you can follow Alex as well, AlexClarkFX. He's also active as well on Twitter. Amplify Trading, well, so if you follow Amplify Trading, what are you going to get out of that? Well, every morning I generally am on my desk just shortly after 6 AM. I will go through all of the news in the morning, and I generally start tweeting out via the AmplifyOne the main stories in focus. So if you just wanted a fundamental digest of some of the main headlines and appropriate stories rather than trawling through all the news, this is quite good to follow. I normally retweet maybe 5 or 6 articles every morning that are going to be really important for that day ahead. Uh, the YouTube channel, obviously, uh, don't forget to subscribe to that. I put out my briefing every day and the other guys will be adding content. And then Amplify Trading, I'm just going to quickly jump to— so if you want Amplify Trading, dependent on whether you're, um, a trader or a student, I'm going to focus on the traders for the time being. But if you go on the trader section So yeah, you can see here's our trading floor. Obviously due to the pandemic, we've moved everything fully online for the moment, and all of our training is done via Zoom in a similar format to what we're doing at the moment. And I'm kind of pleased to say the feedback has been that the experience actually has kind of outperformed most people's expectations of operating online. I know Alex has said before that actually he finds it easier to have really open and honest one-to-one discussions with people because you're doing it almost privately rather than on a trading floor where everyone's kind of, you know, around each other. And so there's kind of added benefits as well to doing stuff remotely. And we have like a virtual trading floor where the guys can all communicate with each other, uh, all day every day pretty much. I know some of the guys are in there even, even too early for my liking. But obviously, that's a, it's a good thing to access. In terms of if you wanted to find out more about Amplify, when you're on the trader page, and Sam, I'm sure, can put this into the chat in a second, but we've got 3 main kind of services that we offer. One of the first ones is Amplify Now, which is basically a program where we've put the very best of our content into on-demand videos. And it forms then a kind of cross-section of everything you'd need to know to, to learn and analyze financial markets and trade them from a global macro perspective. So whether you're brand new or you have a little bit more experience but maybe not used to macro or fundamentals or different asset classes, then this is, uh, the kind of program for you to enhance that side of things. So this is all on demand, uh, and there's, uh, there's some free videos there. If you just hit Start Now and register, you can access some free content. Otherwise, we do do more focused, intense training. We do two different ones. There's a one-week program which we call our Advanced Trader Program, where basically you get access to the full suite of the on-demand pre-learning content, and then you spend a week with us. So us three, but also some of the other members of the team as well, including Will and Piers, the co-founders. And we basically go through much more advanced content. We start going through actual, you know, strategy development, trade execution, psychology, mindset, these types of things. So check that out. You can just inquire now and speak to a member of the team. Liam's normally the guy. And then we have Professional Program, which is our kind of our main flagship one. Traditionally, this is the one that leads to the potential for this which is becoming a fully bona fide backed ongoing Amplify Trader. So in the professional program, this is a 5-week long program where basically you'll get the full grounding of everything with all of that online access to that portal and then working with us literally like this every day for 5 weeks. And that includes then trading a live funded account of Amplify Capital. The idea here then being that for you guys, you get to experience taking real tangible risk but under our supervision and guidance. And the guys go into much more advanced techniques and lectures and so on. And all of that, as I said, leads on to the prospect that potentially these guys— it mainly comes down on Sam's discretion, but there are a number of metrics that he would look at, which I'm sure he'd be happy to explain, but we then offer to back people ongoing, continuing to trade our capital, to start sizing up over time with the ambition then moving that they, they go from micro to full futures, um, trading a multi-asset account with us. So yeah, I mean, look, I'll leave it at that unless, uh, Sam or Alex, you want to add anything more on, on that?

No, I, I just responded to a question in the YouTube where someone was just asking for a link to our Twitter pages, handles, websites, all that information, uh, if I could just put that onto our Facebook page later, uh, which I will do. And I'll also, uh, tweet out that information. So yeah, I've seen a few of you have added, um, us on, on Twitter, but if you are not on Twitter and on— are on Facebook, I'll put all that information there for you guys, uh, as well.

Cool.

And then, uh, Alex, anything you're expecting then? Just focus back onto the press conference, you know, what's, uh, any kind of, uh, guidance towards what you think she could say in order to tame the euro appreciation here that wouldn't give too much away but enough to, to kind of stop the upside from her perspective?

I don't think she can stop the upside. Um, it's my belief.

I think that if she, if she tries, if she does like a follow-through to what Lane said about euro being too high— bear in mind that Lane actually wasn't specific in any levels, he just expressed concern. So as you know, always sort of in, in history, as price rises and rises and rises, gets early on, they will say, oh yeah, so it's, look, we're concerned and then we're more concerned, and then now it's getting pretty bad. And but there's, you know, the piece I wrote, there's no consensus in the ECB at the moment, and there's not even the beginning of consensus that the euro is too high. And so if she sort of talks it down, like I say, you might get a little pop to the downside, but I think it'd be short-lived. Um, historically, looking at like previous interventions, they're actually super unsuccessful. And if the market's too big, interventions that have worked need physical intervention and actually intervening in markets.

And that's not something the ECB is talking about. So I think the first sort of stages to an intervention that would work is, A, consensus, which there's not, and then, B, past consensus, like verbal intervention very rarely last much longer than a day or so. And so it just gives you the perfect opportunity to buy the dip. So I'd really like it if Lagarde was to talk down the euro a bit because then we could go long. And, um, I don't know how— sorry, go on.

Yeah, I was just going to say that, um, uh, I guess you, you guys probably don't remember Jean-Claude Trichet.

Probably, probably even before your guys' time, but only through the simulation that we've run.

Oh yeah, so I mean, you've got to go back to really 2011 when a lot of that was being used, but in my— I remember it during, even before that. There used to be a very famous informal thing in markets called the ECB Codewords, and basically it was a dictionary of vocabulary of forward guidance that Trichet adopted that basically told you of what he was going to do and when. So it, you know, you can— it's kind of a weird thing because he's basically telling you, I'm going to hike rates in 2 months' time, 3 months' time, but he's not actually saying it. But we all know what he's saying. And what that meant was then if he wanted to change his mind or conditions changed, then he could do so because it wasn't the official line. So let me just quickly show you and give you a flavor, and it might make a little bit more sense about why monetary policy is such a forceful kind of tool. Unfortunately, I can't find a cleaner graphic here, but this goes back to 2005. So I— this was quite close to when I started actually in markets back in '05, '06, and I was actually given like a crib sheet of code words that I had to learn. It was like learning a new language. And basically what these different colors would signify was the ECB had a routine of saying either we're monitoring closely, we're monitoring very closely, then they would say strong vigilance, very strong vigilance, and every one of these was a step up towards they're getting closer to making a policy change. And obviously in this era they were, they were hiking rates prior to the financial crisis. I think this one might be a little bit clearer perhaps. You might better just make that out. But look, this was the ECB interpretation from wording. So they used to say appropriate, strong vigilance, vigilance, very close monitoring. That meant 2 months to rate hike. Monitor very closely was 2 to 3 months. Monitor closely was 3 to 4 months. You know, so when people say, how do you trade a monetary policy event? It is a bit of a fine art. Because you actually need to understand then the, the types of not just policy tools that are in play and how important they are and who uses them and how much are they used, but you've also got to think about the market positioning and then also the language alterations and what they signify. That's what makes these quite tricky, I think, when you're new to try and trade. Um, but yeah, hopefully that, that was, uh, gives you a bit more of an idea. Not so clear these days with Lagarde, Lagarde, uh, in regards to— it's not so much of a definitive kind of code word, uh, book at this point. But well, we're about to find out, right? How does she describe the euro is going to be quite key. Um, just having a quick look, the euro— I'm sorry, sterling's just come under a bit of pressure, guys, just broken through that level. Um, you can see there we had an initial rejection at that previous area of support and resistance, and we came back up to the pivot to the tick. Then you've had that push down, break, and extension now. So I guess there's quite a nice area there, uh, of support. You've got those prior day lows and the S1 in the futures kind of coming in at around the same level, which is just above the 129 handle here. So already around here, 20 and then 20 or 17 is the, the S1 in the futures at least. So sterling still looking a little heavy. Elsewhere, equity indices, NASDAQ in the middle here, it's just coming up to kind of range, I guess, of where we were yesterday on the, the really strong recovery. Uh, you might have seen initially, I know, uh, Tom for one, I know you're always up late, you've got a little bit of that S&P short in between, uh, feeding your newborn baby. That's quite an impressive feat to pull off, Tom, uh, in that respect. But, uh, yeah, I know that— so, so the sell-off didn't last long. Certainly felt quite heavy when the news broke because it came in between, uh, the closure of electronic trade. But really, yeah, strong recovery in the prior day. Obviously the Astra stuff being played down to a certain degree. They're insinuating towards the trial may restart within a week. Um, to kind of, I guess, in digestion of this, it's not clinically unusual for trials to be halted and then to be restarted. They do that as part of the process in order to make sure then that it doesn't kill the entire trial in itself. So they're very cautious in their approach in doing so. Um, so yeah, NASDAQ's kind of gathered a bit of composure after what had been a a multiple-day sell-off really from last week. I mean, you can see that, uh, really from that tech rotation that was started from last Thursday, uh, and now we're kind of consolidating a little bit here, uh, around the pivot providing a bit of near-term support. And then the range high from yesterday is where we're at at the minute. Probably got to wait until the open of Wall Street for that. Don't forget, in the next few minutes you've got the US jobless claims coming out. I don't see jobless claims as really a real threat to market sensitivity at this point. We've had some seesaw up and down jobless performance, but we're looking for a number pretty similar to last week, I think just under 1 million. I think people are going to be more focused on Lagarde as soon as she starts. Yeah, any other questions though that we can help with? We've got a few minutes until the press conference.

Yeah, I've just got one here from Gareth Scott who's just saying he found us today, so welcome. Is this a regular daily thing? Well, we do a morning— Anthony does a briefing every single morning, which is honestly a great way to start the day. Obviously I had the last 3 days off, so this morning's briefing was extra important for me to come back and see what's been going on. And we do He does that every morning, and then we do a video on the Sunday as well, but also other insights that get uploaded on Saturday if there has been anything worthwhile talking about. So yeah, we do a video every day and also cover the live, uh, interest rate decisions like this one, and also non-farm payrolls we covered last week as well. So yeah, good to, good to have you on board, uh, Gareth, and Yeah, like Anthony said, guys, any other questions, please do, uh, do get those in for us.

Yeah, one thing I will, I'll say now, like, I do that briefing every weekday morning and I say this to everyone and hardly anyone takes me up on it, but honestly, look, if you leave a comment on one of those briefings, I will respond to you, if not immediately, then at some point during that day. So, you know, Make of that what you will. I'm offering up my services to you, my 14 years experience at your disposal. Um, hopefully then, you know, the channel can act as a way to educate you. You know, that for us, I think the mission is, you know, there's a lot of misdirection, I think, when it comes to people learning about trading. I think a lot of people have misaligned expectations about what they want to achieve, how quickly they want to achieve it. And so hopefully we can act as a bit of an insight as to how— what you need to know and how you need to approach it in order to have long-term success. Trading is not about quick wins and the quick buck. It's about constant improvement, adaptation of what you're doing. Markets are constantly evolving and changing. And that's why, you know, doing global macro for us is kind of a real cornerstone of what we look at, because the world is changing, uh, and that's what makes this engaging and interesting to trade beyond just that of then looking at candlestick patterns and technical analysis, which of course is crucial for what we do. But it's the blending and combination of these disciplines that I think makes us quite unique in that way. But, uh, look, Lagarde should come out soon, so I'm going to share my charts and then I'll leave it on that. And I'll see if I can get the press conference up and then we'll just start listening in. And then we'll listen for maybe 10 minutes. We're not going to stay online for the full time because I want you guys to be able to trade and concentrate. So we'll listen to the opening statement and then we'll listen to a couple of the first questions and then we'll go from there. Okay, I'll play Christine. I've got the live audio feed on from the press office, so you'll hear it coming out through my mic.

We all had a little break during the summer, and certainly the Governing Council members are all back and in action.

Sam, can you hear that all right?

Yeah.

Today, and to have those good discussions that I will evoke now together with the Vice President. Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today's meeting of the Governing Council, which was also attended by the Commission Executive Vice President, Mr. Dombrovskis. The incoming data since our last monetary policy meeting in July suggests a strong rebound in activity, broadly in line with previous expectations, although the level of activity remains well below the levels prevailing before the coronavirus pandemic. While activity in the manufacturing sector has continued to improve, momentum in the services sector has slowed somewhat recently. The strength of the recovery remains surrounded by significant uncertainty as it continues to be highly dependent on the future evolution of the pandemic and the success of containment policies. Euro area domestic demand has recorded a significant recovery from low levels, although elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook continues to weigh on consumer spending and business investment. Headline inflation is being dampened by low energy prices and weak price pressures in the context of subdued demand and significant labor market slack. Against this background, ample monetary stimulus remains necessary to support the economic recovery and to safeguard medium-term price stability. Therefore, we decided to reconfirm our accommodative monetary policy stance. We will keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We expect them to remain at their present—

okay, so at the moment, I mean, there's nothing being said, and that is— that's the problem. So if you're not actively trying to talk it down by saying something more explicit, well, euro's moving higher on the back of that. It's kind of one of those things where it's not what you're saying, it's what you're not saying at this point in time.

Anthony, you're just on mute.

€1,350 billion. These purchases contribute to easing the overall monetary policy stance, thereby helping to offset the downward— path of inflation.

I'm just working in between playing and my mic, but the ECB obviously saying that to— said to agree there is no need to overreact to the euro gains. I mean, this is complete opposite obviously of what we were told from all of the ECB officials that have been talking for the last week and a half. So that's what's creating that spike up in euro, but that should also technically weigh on the DAX a little bit. So the DAX, we're just coming down here to a level that's been just holding up some of the price activity. So keep an eye on the DAX If we break there, wouldn't be surprised for a push down and run on towards pivot, which you can see here if I put a rectangle at these areas here of the previous high pivot and also that previous high that was seen yesterday morning. So if the euro appreciates further, we get a technical break on that level on the DAX, it might trade quite heavy. Any euro levels to keep an eye on, guys, here from the— on the upside as targets?

Yeah, let me, uh Well, I can do it on your, on your screen. That, that 1.1894 that we talked about just before the briefing, you can see it's a massive area of support going back from the 31st to the 2nd. I can see you've got it sort of marked up, uh, there as well. I mean, look, we're testing that now, um, as, as we know. Always interesting to see where we close, um, on, on the specific candles. But yeah, that was a big support point Uh, it broke through, uh, early in the month and we're back to test it. Where we finished the day is now massive. And, you know, while I said at the beginning this is kind of where I see, uh, price finding resistance on a move up above there, it can run towards the, the 1.19, uh, sort of 16, 20 level. And next thing you know, 1.20 comes in and they have to start thinking about— hang on, did— what did we say about at 1.20 before? Because if these comments, I think, from Lagarde are, like you said, a complete reverse of what we have heard from the likes of Lane, etc., last week.

I mean, just to add one piece of clarity here, this is a Bloomberg source. So actually, even the ECB is saying this, but the ECB have obviously told— like, think of the world slightly different. Bloomberg have dropped a source comment within 1 minute of Lagarde speaking. Like, this is not coincidence. So think about this now. Step away from trading for one moment just to understand the way of which this news is released. What's happened here is Lagarde's not saying anything on the euro. So the official party line of the central bank is there is no predefined assessment of markets now being able to pin them down towards what's like a finite level of the euro that's problematic. So this gives the ECB maximum flexibility. But what do they do? They speak to Bloomberg source, and they say, right, as soon as we begin, you drop the bomb. And the bomb says, actually, we're not that fussed at the minute. But the ECB have not actually said that themselves. So for me, it's another masterstroke of central bank communication, ultimate flexibility now for future, for managing it. Now, that doesn't mean, though, that it controls the immediate market movement. I mean, the euro has rallied here. Because a lot of people were expecting something more explicit given the, the communication we've had of late, as Sam just said. So hopefully that makes a little bit more sense about how these things actually work in reality. It's very telling— source comment before, during, and I wouldn't be surprised if after as well— if there is a massive rally. If the euro just takes off now and rallies through 1.19, goes up to 1.20, I can almost guarantee you'll get another source comment by the end of the afternoon, and it will be a source saying, oh yeah, we're a little bit worried about the euro now. But instead of coming from Bloomberg, it will come from Reuters, or it'll come from Wall Street Journal or the FT, just to bump it back down again. This is just the nature of these types of events. But hopefully that makes sense.

Yeah, absolutely. Well, I mean, you look, you're seeing a sort of trying to get through that area Um, obviously people have taken a bit of profit. You've got a bit of a spike. Where we finish on this candle is going to be massive. You know, it— if we, if we go back to a few of the other, you know, live sessions we've done, you've had times where gold just pushed on, it's hit a level, looks like for all money it's going to break through, and next thing you know, we're, we're back to where we are. So keep an eye, uh, the— let that, you know, the price action around these highs tell you what's going on. But yeah, 119 in the future is almost being tested there. And this is also helping the, the pound just, just push higher a tiny bit as well. And, uh, this dollar weakness because of euro strength— you've got gold on, on the highs of the day, uh, as well. And stocks in the US wouldn't really mind this too much either.

Yeah, I've just seen Lagarde says we'll monitor FX rate. So that, there's your, your, your on-the-fence, I'm neither here or there But I'll comment to try and—

someone's just been in over here.

So yeah, I mean, as far as it's gone on an explicit nature, let's call it above board official comms.

We'll be monitoring the FX rate is kind of all that we've heard. It was the source that was saying the ECB has said to agree that there is no need to overreact to the euro's gains. Um, but yeah, I mean, I guess if you look net-net, we're still a point off where we were, which was 120. So we're still below that threshold that created the initial problem in the first place. So perhaps they're right to be standoffish for now, but you know, it does seem somewhat inevitable that we're going to get up and retest that 120 area again soon. And it's going to be interesting to see what can they do and what do they say at that point. Um, but Sam, you just said about US equities would probably, um, fairly like this in a sense of what— it's not disruptive. You were saying that it shouldn't really just distract the narrative of further recovery, or how you—

and also the sort of a weaker dollar as well, I think, would, would add to the mix of that. You know, you see gold push higher as well, and you know, if the dollar's weak, um, I think equities will like that a touch. I mean, I know we've got I think the cash open shortly, but you can see NASDAQ right on those highs of the day and yesterday. S&P lagging behind a touch, but, you know, trend line from yesterday's highs looks like it could be in play. So a break of those levels, you know, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. But you can see the euro really battling around, really battling around that level. Decision time, of course, and Lagarde could say one thing or the other at that changes direction or keeps it going. But interesting leak, isn't it? And the timing of that during the press conference, I wonder if, if that's planned or someone's in trouble there.

No, no, 100% planned, I'll tell you that now. This is all— all I wonder is when they have these policy meetings, how often, how often are they talking about macroeconomics and making a decision, and how much of their conversation is actually about how markets are positioned and how what they say is going to impact markets. I'd love to be a fly on the wall, uh, to be honest. But the other thing is here, a question about why is the FTSE lagging other global indexes?

Um, well, yeah, I mean, one of the main things here is that the UK economy is facing multiple threats to its situation at the moment. Now, I understand that the FTSE is full of, like, multinationals that derive income from elsewhere. But the idea here is that there's so much uncertainties, I think, around not just the COVID situation, the economic impact. Remember, the UK economically is far worse in terms of its GDP contraction in the most Q2 readings comparative to the rest of mainland Europe. It's by far the worst because it's compounded by the uncertainties emanating from we don't really know how Brexit is going to play out. As confident as we can be that most likely then that it's not favorable for either party for it to end badly, the FTSE is going to lag because of Brexit. It was lagging before the pandemic. The pandemic then has already hit a fairly, um, uh, underperforming market in the first instance. And so therefore I think that's why the FTSE is kind of a laggard at this point. Ah, Richard. I can see Richard's on. I hope you're doing well. Are you still at UBS, Richard, that you were at? I can't remember if you were there when I last saw you, if you're still there. But yeah, look, Lagarde. Let's turn her back on and listen in.

Bonds here just on the loan, and you're seeing the same in T-notes here. It's worth keeping an eye on that. Bonds on the S1.

Strong money growth reflects domestic credit creation and the ongoing—

Right, just so you got the first inflation outlook. So just to run you through inflation and growth. So the ECB sees 2020 GDP at -8%.

8%.

That was from their previous forecast of -8.7%. So remember, this is in line with the sources yesterday. They were talking about potential upgrade to 2020 growth. And so, yes, we're looking at a very deep contraction in the euro area and economy. However, it's not as bad as pessimistic as they previously saw. So that's another net kind of positive. But a lot of that was priced in, I'd say, yesterday. In terms of ECB 2021 growth, they've actually downgraded that. They only see 5% from 5.2%. And then for 2022, they see 3.2 from 3.3. So the shape of the recovery— so let me, let me just quickly show you something because this will make life way easier for me to explain and, and what exactly this looks like. So the ECB literally tweet while they're doing this, and this makes life much easier. So the transition— so here you can see overlaid the latest ECB staff macroeconomic projections, and you can see what September looks like comparative to June. And so here you're looking at a slightly more shallow contraction followed by a slightly less emphatic recovery, albeit very marginal changes here. For the inflation rate, you can see that they actually see inflation coming back by 0.2 more higher than they previously saw in the end 2021 comparative to before. So if anything, if you were to take away from this, they're seeing a slightly less deep contraction by year end with a slightly firmer recovery of inflation, in fact. So that in itself lends its hand to being a little bit supportive for euro in that sense. But these changes, I would put a caveat and say they're very marginal, and a lot of that move in the euro happened yesterday because of the nature of the sources. But hopefully that makes a little bit more sense about the projections that have just come out. Okay, yeah, go on, Alex.

Well, for me, Christine Lagarde doesn't care about 120, and, and I think that's massive. Couple that with like what you said with the inflation forecast. If she doesn't care about 120, if we rally up to 120, then we're just going to blow straight through it, I think. But I would, you know, it's again, it's one of those levels that's sort of like bearish below, bullish above. Good practice and all that. But if we close above 120 with conviction, there's going to be one hell of a short squeeze. And, um, and you want to be long now, obviously. But it's one of those days where I want to see how we close the day, good practice and all that jazz, um, and then maybe look to get long Friday, Monday, that sort of thing. Just take your time. But yeah, for me, like, if Lagarde doesn't care about 120 gives the green light for a big rally.

Okay, and then, uh, Sam, the NASDAQ session highs now, uh, we're coming up to the high end of the range from yesterday. So from a technical perspective, if we remain— continue a reversal for some of the recent sessions' losses, what are the key levels you'd look at?

Yeah, well, let me, let me just share my, my screen on that actually, so I can run through some. Um, just while I get the screen updated. Trump has just tweeted that Kim Jong-un is in good health, never underestimate him, which I'm sure we're all, uh, we all wanted to know that. But, uh, yeah, Kim Jong-un is alive and well, which is a surprise to me. I thought he's been dead for a year or so, but he is alive. But yeah, NASDAQ, um, you can see we're pushing on and it looks all good now as we are above that high from yesterday. As we know, it's about about where we close here because you've got the cash open coming shortly. The US data that came out— jobless claims, continuing claims— not much in them, a bit of a mixed bag really. So I don't think that's affecting things too much. Good level here. You see, we, we broke down on, on the 8th, which of course was the Tuesday. I remember looking at, at the markets in the evening, seeing us down here and thinking, uh-oh. But we, we are back and we're testing that level. So this is key. This is key, and it has to be a bit of a zone. So if we can get about 1— basically 11,500, then I see a quicker, quicker move back to towards the high that we had on the evening of the 7th. And if that happens, we close above there, next thing you know, it's, it's— yeah, it's a lot of it is, is undone. Um, but cash open will be key. I think from a, you know, a sort of 15-minute close after the cash open, you would want to see price above these levels for it to act as support to then push on. And you're almost looking for that type of price action for us to get back to a key resistance back on the, uh, on the 4th. It is outperforming, um, you know, compared to the S&P, which you can just see is trying to get through a bit of a trend line there. It's not the most amazing one in the world, but the S&P, X marks the spot, which you can see these markets, you know, yes, they're, you know, moving quickly, but it's just so fantastic. I love seeing them when they react well to sort of previous levels. So we know that's important, the market knows it's important. So I want to see price at the end of the day above that. You know, that said, the high of the day, 3411, is obviously, uh, here as well. For the week, let me just bring in the, the daily chart, um, because obviously 34 100 was, give or take a point or two.

All right, Sam, just quick, very quick. She's in the Q&A now. She just said we do not target an exchange rate. So a little bit of upside in the euro again. Um, so just keeping on the first couple of questions are coming through now.

Yeah, definitely keeping on that high of the day there. And you can see I've got that level marked up. And the reason we're still, you know, flirting around there is because of that. I mean, look at this on the on a 1-minute. And to see, that's just profit-taking. And then now it's decision time whether we can push on. You'd be comfortable staying long as long as we stay above this trend line here on the minute. Uh, if we can get a close above 1.1894, you'd expect a further push to the upside and really targeting those highs of the morning around 7 o'clock here on the euro.

Yeah, one thing to, to add there from, from my interpretation is that you know, she got asked explicitly about the euro and that was her response. So it's very unlikely now that she's going to say anything more on the euro, if that makes sense. So she was asked, what do you think about the euro? We discussed it, we're not targeting an FX rate. Yeah, therefore now there's probably going to be more upside, I would say, if I was looking at it. In that way because that was her chance to really talk it down. She didn't. And so that's what's contributing to some of the renewed pickup now in the euro.

Yeah, yeah, I'd agree. I think that's the green light for 120. But that said, you know, guys, this isn't a buy right now. It's a buy if we can get above that resistance level because we know how important this resistance area is. And it's just— it's like that ceiling. Until we're through it, we can't continue to climb. Um, so yeah, I agree, you know, it's, it's, it's— I'd be surprised if we don't get 120 again soon, but I can't commit to a new position unless we get above this 118.94, and certainly not if we get below this trend line. But yeah, I, I agree, um, but definitely keep an eye on that. And just quickly, I'll go back to the S&P. If we close the week above 3,400, um, then for me that's the I'll go as far as saying, I know it's, it's September, but if we can close maybe 10, 20 points above here, um, for me, the low that we've seen this month, I think, could be the low of the year. So I think it's a very important close for the week for the S&P. But yeah, back to, back to euro. I don't know, and if you want to share your charts.

Just been, um, an update on the purchase program, the pandemic purchase program. Lagarde says the PEP has been 'Efficient and effective under current circumstances, the full PEP envelope will be used.' So again, we're kind of looking for— not that they obviously, they've missed the boat now in terms of delivering an increase to PEP, it's the forward guidance around are they going to do any more in future. And that's a really uncommittal kind of stance to take, I'd say. To me, reading between the lines, she's saying it's been efficient and effective and that they've— they're under the current circumstances, the full envelope will be used. So to me, that would suggest, well, she's not near then increasing it because it's being effective as it is at the moment, and they've got the total envelope size to still use.

Again, that's a bullish euro kind of, um, situation. So, um, you can see now why they did the source comments yesterday. Imagine if that source comment didn't materialize yesterday. This euro would have rallied the best best part of 150 pips by now. And given the way of which then, uh, the momentum traders and algos would have jumped on that, you could have been looking at a 2, 2.5, 3-point move in the euro today if they didn't drop the more bullish sources yesterday to pick the market back up, if that makes sense. So, um, yeah, I, I still think there's fundamentally what we've heard should be supportive of euro. Interesting though that the DAX— and really not that fussed at the minute. I mean, given the, I guess, context that we're talking specifically about the euro, hence why the euro currency is more sensitive rather than the indirect knock-on implications for, say, European equities or European yields so much.

Yeah, yeah, I, I just, just wrote in the YouTube chat, just following on from what you said earlier, and that if euro does push higher and higher, just to be aware of any potential, you know, source comments into the back end of today and tomorrow. So it's not, you know, while for me it is, it's green light 120 and beyond, you know, they may, uh, they may go back on their words and you never know.

Here we go, look, another little push up now. So let's just get the chart back up. Euro just pushing on again, 119 now in the futures. So upside Yeah, just be watching where you've got, maybe around 0.05, and then 16.5 is the kind of bigger level a bit further up. Keep an eye on here as targets. So you can see that another little squeeze up, but as I said, in terms of some of the other products here, um, DAX not biting too much. Uh, the other currency markets then, the euro strength obviously just weakening against the dollar basket, so cable's getting a bit of relief. It's a story of sterling benefiting from other currency fluctuations in terms of any supportive— I hate to sound anti-British because I am English, but, um, you know, thank goodness for the plight of other areas, for the pound acting as somewhat of a safe haven in, uh, to some respects. But yeah, the pound getting a bit of a breather here because the euro is just battering everything else down in terms of the dollar-related pairs. Um, but yeah, look, euro, another push-up. So back up right up to that 0.05 now, which is around that low point that we had. If I just mark this up with an ellipse, uh, you've got the, the low here that was seen on the 1st and that initial spike high on the 27th. 7th. And so yeah, just having, you know, so what will happen here is when people are trading this type of event, you know, Sam and Alex have been quite clear to talk about fundamentally they understand the direction, but they're looking for like closes in terms of higher, slightly higher time frames. And then the bigger picture, if you were trading this more, much more aggressively, if you're a bit more activist, then really you want to be booking these positions as the trade is developing. So it's a little bit different depending on your kind of style, I guess. But here it's more prudent that you're just taking some up. You can see that 19 handle is probably acting psychologically with 0.5 just above. You get a little bit of profit taking on that initial momentum break that we've had on there on that last little push-up. Yeah, Link Lagarde just saying that it's very likely the full PEP envelope will be used. Again, that kind of, kind of says then that they're not quite there yet. There's no— they're not intonating towards then they're gonna increase it imminently, which perhaps was an outside call today for the doves in terms of expectations.

Yeah, I'd be interested just from a, you know, a day, you know, in the markets if we do get above 120, because I completely agree with, um with Alex. The short squeeze above there will be, will be very interesting to, to see.

Yeah, I could get up some. Is it, is it too early to look for some levels above 120?

Well, look, we've got to be prepared. That 125 is, is, is massive. So, you know, for, for a trader not to have that on, it would be unwise. So yeah, absolutely.

I'm quite superstitious though, so I don't know, like, push my luck. But let's, let's have a little look, see what's going on up there. We have to zoom out on a weekly. So areas that I was looking at, we had a couple of— what you want, 25 up there? We've got this sort of high here. Oh, that is, that's 1.2050. Yeah, so we have— you got your 1.2050 there, a little bit of an area there around— it's 100 points, isn't it? You've got this low here from back in Q1 of 2018 in the first first stop is going to be that 1.21, which is the high from 2017. Above there, I'd expect that to get tested quite quickly. That 1.23 as well. And then you've got this kind of— call that horizontal area around 1.22 and a half almost. So you've got a few levels to get through before you reach that 125. I mean, the actual high there from 2018 was 125.5. I mean, this rally has just been insane, and if it breaks up through 120, you know what an incredible rally that's been. It's barely pulled back. I would expect there to be some big resistance around 120 though. But if we break with conviction, and it'd be 121 quick, up through 122, 122.5.

Okay, cool.

I just want to pick up a few other questions. Someone was asking about oil prices.

Oh yeah, sure.

Um, I think with oil, you know, when you're looking at a chart, it's, um, you know, don't get too obsessed with very short-term price movement. I mean, we've obviously got a near-term level here. We just briefly flirted with $37.30, which is kind of the intraday kind of low. Um, yeah, there are a couple things fundamentally. You have the private energy inventories, uh, last night, which did show a build of 3 million. Expectations were for a draw of around 1.5 million. Cushing was up a build of, sorry, 2.5 million. This comes ahead of the delayed DOE inventories will get this afternoon. So obviously, perhaps people looking for a bullish or bearish outcome given the inventory side. But also there's those comments out of Saudi, and I'm not pinning this on this weakness, but the news that's out there at the moment for the oil market is talking about the fact that they're kind of reluctant to do anything more cutting in their deal because of the fact that they feel then other nations will feel like they've got the flexibility to be less compliant, so they're reluctant to kind of show their hand first. That would be a negative. And you've had other countries following Saudi and lowering some of their prices recently. So there's, you know, there's reasons for a little bit of weight. But I mean, I would say you're trying to curve fit reasons if you were looking at those things I've just mentioned, because albeit that they're fundamentally maybe short-term negative for crude price. I don't think that's really what's going on here in oil. For me, oil's not really moving at the moment, um, so I wouldn't overanalyze it at this point. You've got the energy inventories coming out later, that will be the bigger event for that asset. Downside, uh, looking at that low before push-up we had yesterday afternoon, and then you've got the range low that we printed 2 days ago, uh, down at 36.13. If you're looking at a downside On the upside, quite a nice level there, I guess, uh, in near-term to price, which is around those previous highs and lows. You can see going back over really the period of the last 24 hours, 37.69 in the futures. And if we push back up, you've got quite a nice area there. And these would be areas to mark up when the energy data hits later. See that previous low, that high, and then a push-up brings into play that previous high from yesterday as well. Would be my way of looking at it. Okay, I think, guys, I know the press conference is still going on, but I'm just conscious of the fact we've been on for a while and I'd rather keep it, you know, nice and sharp and on point. So I think we've covered quite a bit. So what I'm going to say is I hope, I hope people have joined us, I hope it's been useful, insightful. As ever, if you're new to the channel, just remember to subscribe if you're watching on YouTube. New content coming all the time. So, and again, open door policy, leave comments, ask questions. I'll always, myself and the team, will help. The guys in the private Zoom room for Amplify, um, just, we'll pick this conversation up back in there going forward. Uh, but yeah, we'll listen in for the rest of the press conference.

But yeah, everyone, thank you for joining us.

Uh, Sam, Alex, thank you. As a Dallas etai, if I'm saying that right, thank you.

Um, sorry. Yeah, we'll see you next time.

Thank you very much for tuning in, guys. Have a great rest of your day.

Thank you.

Have a nice weekend.