LIVE ECB Interest Rate Decision - 12th March 2020

Okay, testing, one, two. Let me know whether Sam and I are coming through okay. Let's flip it over and let's get the three of us on screen.

Dream team.

A rose and two thorns, some would say. So yeah, just let me know whether you can see everything, hear everything okay. We've got 15 minutes until the ECB rate decision.

Mojo, if you can't find the livestream, we will always tweet it out as well, so do make sure you follow us on Twitter and we'll always tweet that.

Yeah, just while we wait for confirmation from the others to make sure that you can hear us, we have put a link in the bottom of the screen. You can see it now. That is a link to our page if you're interested in finding out more information about about Amplify Trading and also particularly our trader development program, you can click on that. That's the web link. And as I transition over, there's also an email address. You can email us directly there. You'll see on the screen shortly at info@amplifytrading.com, and we're happy to answer any questions you might have just in general about what we do, but obviously about some of the options that we have. Now we've got a brand new online training program which is accessible wherever you are, and it's a good ability for some of you guys to be able to get some information and how our traders have been navigating this kind of renewed volatility in markets. Sam just put a link in as well that you might want to check out, but let's get straight to it. Let's have a very quick chat then about this lady, and then Sam's beside me. We've got just a about 13 minutes until the ECB actual event, and we'll look at some of the charts and we'll, we'll obviously, we are expecting some action here. So from the top, top side of this, it's a, it's a two-part event. You've got the interest rate announcement, the statement, and so on that will come out, and which we're going to cover live. Then I'll, I'll kind of leave you with Sam and he can pick, pick up the, the interim period. The stock's open obviously is earlier if you're based in London, so that'd be half one, and that's when the press conference will also kick off We'll be looking out for more detail from Christine Lagarde. But the reason why we've got her up here is it's the first real big meeting and test for Christine Lagarde. She obviously took over from Draghi. She's had a few meetings now, but this is the first time where really it's become much more pressing. And the reason for that, of course, is about this global now pandemic, of course, as now self-titled by the World Health Organization yesterday. Levels now globally are picking up, and the anticipation is, is that more and more national governments are going to have to take preemptive measures to either contain or delay this virus. We're awaiting confirmation of those next steps from the UK Prime Minister later this afternoon about whether or not they're going to take the steps like Italy have to shut schools and so on. It's kind of the first step down that, that road, but Again, the, the expectation is high on the ECB, and the reason for that is we obviously had the Fed emergency cut. We've had the RBA, the BoC, and the Bank of England, of course, putting rates back down to historical low levels. And so what we're looking out for here is markets are fully expecting, and that could be part of the problem with the release today in terms of these lofty expectations that the ECB have got to come in and start delivering something of some magnitude. Now, as far as the markets are concerned, what I've got is a bit of a checklist of things to think about. And with the ECB, it's a little bit more complicated than other central banks because there's a whole variety of different tools of which they deploy in order to manage their economy. It's not as, I'd say, binary as, say, thinking about, oh, do they cut rates or do they not? There's way more nuanced than that. And I'm going to run through a few other things just now for you to be aware of. But I'll be here when it's released and we can talk through it to make more sense. So a 10 basis point rate cut is fully expected by the market. Anything short of that, I mean, that's like the first thing that's a basic shoo-in. They're going to cut rates. Otherwise, it would be a big failure against market expectations. You'd probably see in that case an immediate spike in the euro if they did not deliver that. So it's very much anticipated. That's rates to go down 10 basis points to -0.6%. The other things then here are a couple of other factors. And one is this ECB commitment to a temporary €5 billion increase in their monthly asset purchases, specifically targeted to corporate bonds. So not so much the sovereign side. And I'll get around to in a minute why that's particularly important. The other thing here is something called the, uh, the long-term repo operations, or LTROs. They could announce a kind of more specific one, or even targeted long-term refinancing operations, and lending benchmarks could be loosened. A minimum interest rate could be cut to below the deposit rate as temporary measures against, or to get ahead of, any potential funding squeeze in conditions that you might see, similar to what we've had in the US repo market of late. The other things that you can expect from Christine Lagarde, probably more to come in the press conference, is going to be this whole emphasis on pushing national governments within the eurozone, like calling upon Germany, for example, France, other big nations to start really pumping up their fiscal measures. Incredibly important that they— the central banks generally can only do so much, particularly with a fairly diminished toolbox in the first place. So it's about fiscal stimulus and detailed and sizable, like what we've had in Italy more recently. And we're also going to get staff macroeconomic projections. Now, the— like the Fed, like the Bank of England, the ECB rotate. They have Eurosystem and staff projections which come out on an alternate quarterly basis, and we're going to get the latest of those. So you can expect downward revisions, but I guess A lot of this is still yet to be really seen as to quantify whereabouts growth will be in the future. And so the ECB like to say they'll remain on high alert in future to do more if needed. The other thing here then, and these are a few points I've picked out from a really great ECB watcher, is the main guy at Pictet Asset Management. And he said, be on the lookout for the ECB's willingness and capacity to respond with even larger asset purchases requiring then an increase in issuer limits. Now, if you're not clear what that means, the ECB has a set of rules or parameters by which they conduct their quantitative easing. The ECB rules state that it can only buy no more than 33% of bonds from a single government issuer. And given the size and scope and length of which QE has been conducted in Europe, there's a limited amount of bonds left to buy, meaning that they might need to then move these limits. The reason they have a limit is they don't want to be basically financing governments beyond that of which then should be restructured at some point. Its purchases also need to reflect the share each country has in its capital. Now, an example of this I saw in the FT that I thought was quite good is making member states such as Germany and France the two biggest beneficiaries of monthly purchases. But the central bank has had to bend its rules ever since QE has begun because countries like Estonia has almost no bonds that you can buy and low-rated, say, Greek debt is not really eligible for the program in terms of its collateral value. So here it's about what changes to these rules around their bond buying program might they do and do they start to focus it more on the potential increase, as I said in the briefing this morning, about corporate bonds. And so corporate bonds obviously is being a little bit more surgical to hit the the place where it's more important, which is the actual companies on the street, which is what's going to impact or feel the most impact from this ongoing coronavirus and the potential quarantined areas like we've seen in Italy. That's where you've got to help the market. So there's liquidity with LTROs and targeted nature of those. Then there's the more corporate bond buying nuance changed of the QE program, the purchase increase of $5 billion. The more bigger that number, the more positive it might be in terms of a a reaction of that it's going to be something more meaningful in terms of mitigating this ongoing downturn. So that this is all to come. I mean, this is going to come out in about 5-6 minutes, and then you're going to have a bit of a gap. Um, Sam can then kind of go over all the, the stock charts ahead of the NYSE open because we've been pretty much limit down. Of course, we bounced a little bit off the lows, but US futures in for another roller coaster day. And then you've got the, the press conference kicking off at 1:30. So, um, With that, let me just switch over the screens. And Sam, anything you want to add before it comes out?

Yeah, well, I think, you know, it's with any event and those who watch the briefings regularly and the live events regularly, it's fantastic to have you on, but you'll be aware that the way I like to go about it is just have everything completely planned up technically before getting into these kind of trades. So just by levels-wise, as a bit of a guide, I'm happy to say, to stay short. I know someone mentioned the 200-day moving average is in the mix there, but also this trend line really guiding price down for the last few days. You've got your 0.382 fib in the mix around that 115 handle, which also marked up the, uh, the top so far of this, this move, whether it was the carry trade or it was the dollar pricing in, uh, their, their rate cuts as well or not. That seemed to be like a, at least a medium-term top. It seems for, for the euro there. And trend line here is going to be that guide. As long as we stay below there, you know, I'm confident we can push a bit lower. We have in recent trade just tested quite a key level that was hit on the 3rd of March. So keep a watch on that because again, that could be another guide. As long as we can stay below there, this market can drift down and next key levels towards that 1.1150 handle on the futures here we're looking, and below there, 111 as well. And these could all be targets that could be hit. If we just, you know, bring it down to 15-minute, you can see actually just how nicely respected these support points have been this morning. And with the increased volatility that we're going to see, but also at the moment, use these 5-minute candles for the closing price. If we close above, that can be, yeah, bullish. We push higher, break a support, 5-minute close, that really can save, you know, these false breakouts, jumping in too early. So for example, this area here, 1.1258.5, what was initially the low in early trade late last night, you can see it was hit again. We get the 5-minute close, price comes back, holds resistance, doesn't close above, and that's led to another move lower here. So on the, the shorter time frame, 15-minute, I'd have some other areas marked up as well. And these would be just how I'd look at it.

Sorry. Yes, just put the— sorry, Sam, can you stick it on a 1-minute quickly?

Absolutely.

Just seeing some headlines coming out talking about the ECB is to let banks run lower capital ratios due to coronavirus. Looks like that's just dropped on Bloomberg in the last minute or so, just before this actual release comes out. Not too much immediate movement. I guess that makes a little bit of sense, trying to free up a bit of the balance sheet perhaps to just add liquidity upon the pending squeeze that banks are going to feel. In these conditions. But sorry, Sam, go on.

Yeah, no, I mean, you can see it's starting to get a bit jumpy now, 2 minutes away from that release. And you're right, just, you know, extending a bit. And if it is to spike down, you know, this is the point of having those levels pre-marked up. If you're, you know, if you've been in more of a medium-term play and you're happy to risk for it, you know, you might well have some targets around here. I mean, on the opportunity that it just continues to go, then, you know, We've got 1.1046, which would be, you know, massive move from those highs to be aware of. To remember though, we are expecting this to be dovish. So a lot of that has been priced in. It's these extra measures that will ultimately determine this euro move. As with other markets, have a look at the DAX. The DAX is, you know, currently down, but that's not really to do with monetary policy at the moment. It's more to do with what's going on. So it'd be interesting to see what happens. 1.30. Press conference, but also when we get open back again on the NYSE. Stocks in the US limit down at the moment, so the DAX will potentially spike higher or lower off this. But really, ultimately, I'd be interested to see what happens at 1:34 then as well. So really, the euro pairs will be what I'd focus on here. Euro pound actually trading not too far from its high of the day. The pound currently getting battered in early trades. But yeah, focus on the euro, those levels to have marked up, and that's really how I would go about it. I'll put this—

So can we get like the DAX and the euro maybe? Yeah, let's put the DAX in, euro in there. Let's have it. Okay guys, just got 35 seconds, so I'll put the squawk on. You'll be able to hear them talk now as soon as the release comes out.

30 seconds.

Okay, there's the countdown. So we'll let them play, let them cover it all first. We'll get the press statement up as well, and then we'll reiterate any important points, but the squawk will have you covered for the initial release.

10 seconds.

Okay, nothing seen as yet, by the way, so this is a little bit late.

Unchanged. That's unchanged at -0.5%. That's unchanged at -0.5%. So left it unchanged. The ECB says additional LTOs will be conducted temporarily to provide immediate liquidity support to the euro area financial system. The ECB says, although the ECB does not see material signs of strains in money markets or liquidity shortages in the banking system, these operations will provide an effective backstop of QE if needed. So that's further LTROs, and they'll be carried out through a fixed-rate tender procedure with a full allotment with interest rate that is equal to the average on the deposit rate. The ECB says LTROs will provide liquidity at favorable terms to the bridge periods until TR2-3 in June 2020. And just with regards to asset purchases, ECB says reinvestments or principal payments for maturing securities and APP will continue. So that does appear to be unchanged on the reinvestment procedure there.

Yeah, so you can see there, guys, on the euro, this is why you have those levels marked up previous low, how technical it had been. And just from that, you've dropped 30 pips. And 5-minute close is here. Be patient. There's still 1:30 to come. Have your levels marked up. And we've reversed a bit of that move. Again, let's have a look. 5-minute close above there, then you may well get that continuation.

Yeah, so at first glance, guys, just having a look here, here's the ECB statement. And First of all, the initial pop, like what we were saying, markets are fully expecting a cut. So you get the unwind of that. And obviously that explains the blip in the euro that you've seen. However, do bear in mind that they have said there's going to be additional long-term refinancing operations will be conducted temporarily to provide liquidity support management to the euro area financial system. So that's that kind of, okay, you're not delivering with one hand, but you're giving with another. So that's why you're getting a yes, a blip on the initial knee-jerk first-in-first-out type reaction on the initial fact that they haven't changed rates, but they are providing this extra level of liquidity through these LTROs at the moment. The Teltro 3s, considerably more favorable terms will be applied. So again, that's another favorable thing on those liquidity, liquidity conditions as well. I'm just having a quick look through if there's any other changes. A temporary envelope of additional net purchases of 120 billion will be added until the end of the year, ensuring a strong contribution from the private sector purchase program. So that, I guess, is talking more on the corporate side, in addition to the— or in combination with the existing asset purchase program. So again, if they haven't delivered on the rate, but they're doing more LTROs, more favorable conditioning around the TLTROs, and also a temporary envelope of additional net asset purchases in combination with their existing QE program. So there is a couple of things here, but it's like they just— they're going down the route of— and I guess I actually think it's a good move from the ECB. It's the interest rate going from -0.5 to 0.6. I mean, it's not going to have the type of intended impact that they would want in a coronavirus-impacted environment. Liquidity is where the problem lies, and that could cause real tension and that's what they've addressed. So yeah, it's not a runaway hawkish thing, it's just that the headline is. The rest of it, I think actually they are giving a fair bit here. So might explain a little bit of the, the nature of that initial pop. I, you know, the DAX actually, given what they're saying, I think it's, it's a positive thing because then if you can offset then any implications about a liquidity crunch in that sense, and they can operate and continue to keep the system liquid, well then this should be a net positive. And the DAX is seeing a little bit of an uptick. Sam, any other thoughts?

Yeah, so let's have a quick look at that euro. Still in between that previous low and your midpoint now. So 5-minute close is coming in, in 30 seconds, so it'd be It'd be interesting to see what happens on this, you know. Um, I would really let the market tell me from a technical point of view what's, what's gonna, what's gonna happen here. We've got 20 seconds. If we close above this level, I'd be looking to get long, I guess, towards that area. If we can close back below, you know, the market might realize, you know, yes, we get the unwind of that, no cut, but business as usual, and we could drift lower. I'd let the at this level here, 112.57. Tell me— and there's the 5-minute close above. So this would act as a support area now, and continuation would be above that 112.87 point as well. We've got 40 minutes until the press conference. Let's have a quick look over, uh, euro pound. As you'd imagine, obviously rather liquid on the futures, but that has spiked higher And that's now the highest it's traded since October 2019. You know, this, uh, this market is, is definitely one that's on a roller coaster at the moment. But yeah, pretty important resistance level here. We had some support back on that, so that's a big level. Big level. Uh, again, daily closes, hourly closes for continuations. Next real key target you would say is the, uh, the high that we had back on 10th 10th of October. So keep a watch on that there.

Yeah, updating the month.

Choppy, choppy, choppy, choppy. Yeah, back on that, uh, that euro here, just having a go now with that 5-minute close. You can see trying to break that level we got marked up. So there you go. Trendline, the next.

Yeah, you can see a little, that staggered move. As soon as you broke that level, you can see a lot of people were looking at that. You can see the orders there, the bids just coming through, bang, smashing it. And then it's got through there, immediate little blip up through the pivot now. So that upside trendline that Sam's got marked up there, and that previous high comes in at a pretty similar level. The high from, was that overnight?

Yeah, yeah, overnight around here. And then this is, yeah, sort of of early trade around 7:45. Yeah, pivot obviously going to act as a shorter-term point, but deep people definitely have an eye on this and this trend line here. Um, you're going to have a battle going on. So if you are long, obviously, you know, on the confirmation of that 5-minute close above, you can see again we get some resistance on that pivot scenario to take profit. Trend line is in that as well, because on the flip side, you're going to have people looking for the short on the trend line that's worked so well over the last 3 days. On the flip side, we get a breakthrough that you can have stops that get triggered and then we could even push higher from there. But yeah, key level, key time certainly for the euro across the board here.

Cool.

Yeah. One other thing I was just going to say is that look how that euro is, you know, it's incredibly volatile at the moment. This is very reminiscent of any news-driven event. You've got to be quite proactive in managing those trades. As Sam said, picking out those levels in advance, scaling out of the position as it develops. And, you know, the main thing here is that, you know, you can't really afford to sit in these trades looking for that massive move, not unless there is something materially outlying. And let's say they cut the deposit rate by 20 basis points plus delivering what they did. Well, then sure, you get a big move. Or if they didn't deliver any of those telltale and they didn't cut rates, we would have had a much larger exaggerated move than this. And so, you know, you can see that markets pulled all the way back down. So all the importance of just that you've got another part of this event to come. The press conference is coming in 35 minutes. Now it's about, I guess, well, Christine Lagarde, what do you got next? What are your options? What are your trigger points for you taking the next step? And then if so, what would that be and when would it happen? That's what I want to know when she talks in the press conference in, in about half an hour's time. So you can see, look, all the way back down now. So yeah, like you said, you had that previous, uh, level on the— what was this, the overnight lows target, pivot target? Didn't even get quite up to there, but that would have been your other target. And the importance then of just getting out some of that when it was on that initial flurry of—

that's it. I mean, trading these, these events with those levels marked up, you can take profit on there. I mean, if not, you're sort of trading it blindly. Um, but yeah, just coming back down a bit.

Yeah, I mean, any of you who have just kind of stumbled upon this video, obviously if you don't already, remember to subscribe to the channel. Um, Sam and I do a market briefing every morning. I've, I kind of specialize in the fundamentals, Sam on the technical side. We also got Eddie who will cover a little bit more on the micro, particularly equity-specific side of things. And then we also have sessions on psychology and things like that. So it's a real community, our YouTube channel. Any comments that you have, questions, we respond to everyone as well. So if you're watching this and it's the first time you've come across us, just make sure you hit that subscribe button. Plenty more to come. In addition, you can follow myself on Twitter. You can see my handle here, the webpage there. So I put out market insights and stuff. This is the Amplified Trading one. So we put out every morning, you know, if you're ever looking for these live links and sessions that we do, then this is the place to come. And also every morning I'm sharing all the major stock stories of the day. Sam North, the chap beside me who's doing the briefing here, he's also on Twitter here. You can see, just search for Sam North or @snorth19. And then he obviously looks at— it's kind of complementary skill, I guess, to my own. In a sense that he's looking much more from a technical perspective. And he not only trades here, but he also helps risk manage some of the guys and mentors some of the newer traders. Also, the website— I'll quickly show it to you again. I did show you before, but if you scroll— yeah, this is the— I'm going to drop the link into the chat if you want to check it out. This is our professional trading arm of our business. So we have a proprietary trading floor here in London where we fully fund and back traders who go through our development program. They start with trading in the futures market, graduating on to trading a kind of multi-asset class macro-led futures account. And here then you can— there's, there's two kind of options. You can either learn fully online So it doesn't matter where you are, you can kind of click now and literally start with our e-learning online portal, all of the major facets. So, you know, understanding things like ECB, of course, would be really key. And then we do have in-house training options as well if you were wanted to get the full kind of experience to come and sit with us right here on the trading floor. There's that option as well. But just going back to the charts, let's go and have a look at the euro. I mean, this is what we're what we were talking about. So a couple things. One, the market blipped up, but look, look at the euro now and the reversal of the move that we've seen. Yeah, I mean, quite incredible really. And so two things. One, the, the real importance of managing these trades. You know, you could have got— you could have been in a great position there, and if you weren't being prudent and active in managing coming out of that trade in parts, then, you know, you would have given up a lot of that. And if anything, you might be in a negative spot now. And the other thing is, is the fundamental understanding of knowing monetary policy. You know, when I, when I look at this statement, to me this statement means everything because it talks about LTROs, it talks about T-LLTRO3s, it talks about the APP. And if you don't understand what these things are, well then it's going to be difficult for you really to successfully try to trade these types of big news-driven monetary policy events. And that's definitely what we specialize in here. So I'm going to leave you with Sam now. I'll probably come back for the commencement of the press conference though and give you a few couple of thoughts. But any questions that you have, and it doesn't have to be just on the euro here, as much as we're still monitoring that, can be about anything, any of the other products, charts, or what Amplify does, and then just let Sam know. And he can look after you guys. All right, Sam, over to you.

Thank you very much. Yeah, I saw a couple questions in there, so we'll, uh, we'll have a little look over, uh, while we wait for the press conference. And, and this is that period where we've got 30 minutes now for the euro, and we know the information we know, and it's a case of this kind of wait and see perhaps now for the rest of that move. From a technical point of view, obviously the breaks, the low could get interesting because because there's more room to go to the downside. So keep a watch on that. So I'm just going to move this screen to one side. We'll come back to that. A couple questions I saw on, on gold. And we had a, you know, if you watch the briefing this morning, we were saying how it could absolutely just sort of puke it down at some point, and it did. It's got that, you know, two Fridays in a row gold has done that where it's just dropped off a cliff. And it did that this morning, breaking that $1,631 handle, um, and, and broken. Now we're trading not far away from $1,600. Beginning of the week we were at $1,700. Insane move really for, for gold here. And, uh, that reversal, you know, every— it was yesterday was a sell everything day, it really was. Stocks were obviously massively lower, the dollar was a bit stronger in fairness to, to gold. But, you know, even T-notes were coming down, oil was coming down late last night as well. So yeah, gold just, just coming off. And, you know, a couple of reasons behind that, you know, perhaps people went wanting to, you know, switch into more safe haven products like bonds or yen, for example, uh, or, you know, being attributed to margin calls. But also here, the, you know, what a, what a technical level. A break of that, you know, people are going to stay long above it, short below. And another market today that had, um, had been interesting— I'm sure a few of you follow Bitcoin— what a move lower. I mean, Over the last couple of weeks, stocks have, you know, come off over 20%, i.e., bear market territory. Bitcoin might have felt like it was left out the party. Today it's moved to the lowest point, 28% lower from where we opened or closed on Friday. That's 37% lower. So, you know, incredible move there in Bitcoin. Let's have a quick look over the euro again now. It's just drifting back down to that low. Yeah, I mean, that's, uh, that's why we use the pivots here, I guess. What a, what a reaction, uh, around there. Yeah, yeah, Nick, uh, Nico, crypto's down 25% just today. Yeah, Mojo, I, uh, I agree. Um, a couple of questions. Gold strong resistance. Let's bring in that gold chart. Again, yeah, I mean, even, even here you can see just how well these previous lows work out, you know. Then you get that 5-minute close, come back, resistance. So yeah, I would stay short in gold if you are, as long as it's below 1660. Coming to that lower point of the day, another place where people would perhaps look to, uh, to take profit on that. We've got about half an hour um, until the press conference. But also, I would— it's going to be important, of course, but perhaps more importantly is going to be what happens for US stocks. I'm just going to bring in the S&P here, and you can see since 12:05, so almost an hour, we've been pretty much limit down the whole time. So before New York opened, before 1:30 UK time, 8:30 US. If stocks move more than— or if stocks move 5% lower, trading is halted. And that's what's happened here. And you can see price cannot go lower than 26.01. It can go higher, and actually about a couple of times where it spiked, but trading will resume with the ability to go down at 1:30. It can then only go another 2% lower to that 7% 10%, uh, down, which would lead to a 15-minute pause, and then trading will resume. If it was to go 13% down, and I'm not saying it will, another 15% pause. So yeah, interesting on that open. Let's just bring in a trading ladder of the S&P because what you can start to see here is, look, look at these amount of orders is building up. 6,800 waiting. You know, the gap here is going to be pretty big. You know, it's not as big as it was on Monday, but you can see that 6,800, that's only going to get bigger by 1:30. So the gap down will, will be pretty, pretty interesting to keep an eye on there for, for US equities with just less than half an hour to go to, uh, the open. Chris, is now a good buy opportunity for the S&P 500? Not right now at all because we are going to gap lower. So if you're looking to buy now, you're going to be immediately in a losing position. Um, let's talk some levels on the S&P. I know we're doing this as the ECB, but we— during the briefing this morning, I've got two really key longer-term levels where I would potentially look to buy, and that's 2526 and also 23:14. Reason being just because of how significant they were. That's the beginning of 2018, uh, low, February 9th, and that's Boxing Day 2018 as well. I would be looking for reactions of the market before looking to take these trades on. I, I think, you know, it would be potentially something like that where we break through and then actually look to, to get in from there. But yeah, it's a falling knife right now. It's not a pretty picture. Yes, a lot of it is priced in, absolutely, but it does feel like there's more downside to come here. Eurozone banks index hits record low just now as well. The picture isn't, isn't pretty. I think we're gonna get 25.28 today. I would say it's a good place for people short to take profit. I would say you're going to get some longer-term buyers coming in here at this area as well. So you're likely to get a bounce, but I think ultimately there is still room for this to, uh, you know, to go lower. So it'll certainly be interesting. The Dow Jones levels to, to be aware of, and we'll reiterate this as we come closer to 1:30, but what a point here. Can we get down to 21,450? I hope that's the low because I did say, uh, a couple of weeks ago if we got to 21,000 I'd work for free. So yeah, we're all praying for, for that. But yeah, let me know, guys, any, any other questions? We've got 25 minutes until, until the press conference. But S&P keeps getting limit down every kind of pop that we're gonna have here. And, and this, let this just be a a lesson because you might think limit down, it can only go higher, let's buy. Now the problem is, of course, let's say you do buy on limit down when it pops higher and then we— you don't get time to put that stop in just above, you're going to be now trapped in this position. And you've seen how many— we're now over 7,000 orders waiting to sell. If price gaps down, you're going to have a massive loss. So if you're not in an S&P trade right now You know, you do not absolutely not need to be, you don't need to be. Uh, Jonathan, uh, what long position in what and what is the, the time horizon of that trade? Because, you know, if you are a longer-term investor, S&P is giving you a 20% discount. You know, if you're adding here for, you know, a trade duration of 20, 30 years, then what a place to buy. And if it goes down lower, you're not really too bothered. But, uh, yeah, I, I would say I would— if it's an intraday long on stocks right now, yes, you would want to get out. Do you think Dow will gap lower? Yes, Andre, uh, I do. Reason being, we're at limit down. You can see here, look, look, we haven't moved since 11:44 other than a couple of points higher. If we bring in the, the Dow ladder here, you can see there's 1,300 orders waiting to be filled here on that market. We are absolutely gapping lower here, uh, in the Dow and the NASDAQ. I'm going to take us back here to Monday on the, on the S&P. Let me put that on a 15-minute chart. And you can see this is Monday, all right? We, we gap lower unbelievably Monday, 2 AM. I mean, limit down 2 AM, and then we opened up. Let me just get that price in. So we gap down 2818, then opened at 2760. It's cool. So 60 points lower, we gap down. Incredible. And then you can see how choppy it is. It's not a guarantee that we're going to keep going lower or, or higher. So yeah, we're going to get down in the in the Dow Jones, absolutely at 1:30. It's going to be incredibly volatile at that period. I'll get the, the trading ladders open as well because it'll be, uh, certainly an interesting one to, to do that. FTSE, um, to hit 4785. I mean, we're now below levels traded in 1999. Unbelievably for the FTSE when you think of it like that. I think the— I, I think stocks have still got a bit of, bit of way to go to the downside, but just trade what you see, not necessarily what you think. For that, Andre, what platform are we using? So, um, this is CQG. I'd absolutely, you know, recommend using them. Um, they're, you know, charting platform package-wise, I feel they're the best out there. But there's, you know, there's plenty of other, um, other platforms that I could recommend. You've got the email just down here and for trading, please feel free to send that out and we'll get someone back to you, whether it be, you know, wanted to look more spread betting, could give advice on that as well. David, am I too old to take your education at 57 years old? Absolutely not. No, no, there's no age limit at all for learning or trading in general. The, the online course, of course, can be done in one's own time completely. Completely. And we have a weekly webinar Wednesdays, uh, we do that at 6 PM, which is a good sort of live session. But we also— there's a chat function in there, we can speak throughout the day as well. Euro here just getting a bit jumpy again, coming back up to those previous lows. Whether we can get a 15-minute close above that would be quite interesting. 7 minutes to go for for that. Uh, John, how you doing? Hope, I hope all is well. Let's have a quick look over at DAX for you. So this is a market that doesn't have a 5% limit down, which, uh, you know, look at that how you will. Here is a lovely example of when you're coming down to such a big level, i.e., the previous low, uh, if you don't close below, it gives that opportunity to get long. And I think that's just what's happening here in the DAX. I think there's more downside to come, especially when, when maybe US stocks open, we can, you know, push lower. But yeah, the DAX is obviously at levels we haven't been at for quite some time. The daily chart now we're looking at here, and 9,500, incredible. We were up at 14,000 not too long ago, or almost. I would say if you're looking at the DAX, I think today we can get down to 9,300. Really strong previous support back in 2015 and a nice buying opportunity in 2016, um, as well. So yeah, whether you're in a trade or not, I'm not sure, of course, but yeah, I think DAX has got a bit more room to go. When does that come in? I would say once you get a nice close below this low here that we had in, in early trade. Um, Sushrut, how you doing? You did the course a couple years ago now. Uh, do you see the pound 200 MA break? A short and retracement looks good. Yeah, the pound at the moment, not that I'm happy about it, but, uh, is coming under some severe pressure. I think this break is key. I know you're talking here about the 200-day moving average, so let's just have— give that a little bit of a highlight. Let me just modify that. I think the fact that we're below 127.31 in the futures is very, very key as well. And look where your 200-day moving average is— it's that level. I really like that trade if we come here, um, technically anyway. I don't like it personally because of the pound getting battered. But you can see this area in the pound is massive, it really is. So much decent price action has happened around there. That below there, unfortunately, I think we can get down to 126 relatively quickly, uh, on that. Let's have a quick look. What time does the market open? 1:30 UK time. So usually, uh, when the clocks are aligned— obviously the UK, the clocks don't go, um, forward until Sunday the 29th, I think. Sunday the 29th. So the US, they changed their clocks last week, so on Sunday. So there's usually it's 2:30, but because of the clock change, it's 1:30 at the moment. And therefore the futures open, rather than being 11 PM, is actually 10 PM as well. So futures closing at 9 at the moment for most markets on the electronic trade. Good to see some familiar names in here. We've got just under 20 minutes now until, until until that release. The euro is the main reason we're, we're here, of course. So let's just bring that back into picture. You can see that 5-minute close right on that resistance, and we're drifting down here as well. Be really interesting. I know we've got the press conference, but we, you know, really interesting to see how stocks do open when they gap lower and just getting that, that filtered through. So we'll cover that live as well. Yeah, Vern and I agree. I'm not gonna repeat that out loud, but I do agree. I do agree. Some, some unbelievable selling has certainly come through in the pound over the last few days. If we have a look where, uh, where we've come from, look, 132 until— until— this is insane. Almost 600 pips lower. Almost 600 pips lower. Yeah, let me know, guys, any, uh, any other questions at all. Let me just have a quick scroll up here. Yeah, Mojo, just going back to what you were saying, and we're going to switch back over to equities here, talking about it might have even be before I said it, but it's the same level we're talking about here. I think it's that 2018 low, the Boxing Day 21,447. It's— I feel it's going to be a magnet and price has to come to that. That not has to because obviously I don't want you to go short of that, but it feels like it needs to be dragged towards there, then the reaction can happen, much like that all talked about 1,700 in gold, and we're now $90 below that, uh, 1,600 traded, just $10 away, $11, uh, away. Yeah, the pound painfully weak at the moment, Vernon, unfortunately, unfortunately. Let's have a quick look at oil because I know, you know, starting the week, that is the— that's the headline. 31% lower, uh, on the open. Incredible, absolutely incredible. I know on the spot, interestingly, here the spot market or the cash market I'll see if these, uh, that was the 2016 low that we hit. And this is the beauty of sort of interchanging between those two markets when the levels come in. But here on the futures, we have a bit of room to go to the downside. Uh, 26— I think it was 2609 to be precise, 2605 traded double bottom here January and then February 2016. So putting this back on to the story of the week so far. There's the gap lower. We had a little go at trying to break out in early trade. The Trump-Europe ban has led to this coming a bit lower, and you can see now we're just sort of trading on what was an area of support. You've got to, got to feel if this is to go in afternoon trade, a quicker move can, can come here. Asif, do you trade EUR/USD? Yes, I do, and I am currently still in a in a short. I, I posted a picture of it on, uh, on Twitter later. But, uh, watching this push higher, I, you know, not necessarily didn't understand why, but it, it got me excited about having a look for a short higher up. And I was looking at the, the daily chart, and, and this is the beauty of Twitter as well— people floating different ideas about— and, you know, we had this, this fib level from, uh, the, the high from 2018. That's when Trump started to say the dollar was too weak. You won't catch him saying it that now, uh, to the 2020 low. And the, the fib 0.382, also the high from 24th of June last year. So on Monday evening, uh, I got short and, uh, have this morning around, uh, sort of 9:30 took the majority of that position off because I'm not going to hold the whole thing over ECB. But because my entry on this is, you know, just, uh, well, obviously so well protected, it's now a risk-free trade. It's a winning trade. Um, I'm gonna hold it, and as long as we stay and close below this, um, this trend line. So yeah, I do trade EUR/USD. Um, here at Amplify, we'll sort of mix it up and trade different markets, whether it be, you know, the currency pairs, equities, commodities, or bonds. But yeah, I trade EUR/USD every, every now and again. Yeah, Anthony in the chat there just saying don't forget to like and subscribe. Absolutely, click that button now if you haven't done so already. It's good to, like I said, to see so many, so many familiar names in here. I think we've got a really good, good community. What do I think would need to happen for oil prices to rise? Well, short term, medium term, or long term? Because I think we can, you know, you know, if they were to have— OPEC were to do an emergency, emergency cut, uh, a cut of more than, let's say, that 1, 1.5 million barrels per day, you're going to spike higher. But I think the overall problem at the moment is not going to be solved by cuts. So I think it's, uh, still a medium-term push lower for oil. And I think once we perhaps see the slowing down of the virus worldwide, and you can have a correlated push higher in both oil and, and stocks. But I don't think that's ready just yet. I, I really like this 26 handle, however, and I'm just going to bring in next to it the, the pound, which you think, well, they're not correlated. You're right, they're not. But I want to just go through what happened to the pound last year when it came down to $120. Now $120 was a massive, massive level. This is a previous 35-year low that we hit post-Brexit, January 17th, uh, 2017. We then came back down to it in September last year. Massive level. Below that, we're gonna, you know, go down to $115s, one, you know, $10s, etc., where we closed the day on that $26 for oil, if we do of of course, will be vital. If we get something like this where we spike lower but close up, I think oil then becomes an incredible buying opportunity. So what I would like that to look like on the chart— and of course, this is just planning for that— would be the push to come lower, little false break, come back up, and you know where we close the day. Okay, it's above 26, it's get long, and I think it could be one you hold for a while, to be honest. So yeah, just keep a watch on that, how that, that comes through. Head and shoulders in cable. Yeah, I've seen a couple people talk about that. And Antonio, Antonio, sorry. So let's have a quick look. Mojo, yeah, 122 to 135. Thanks, Boris. Let's have a quick look. Hi Chris, how you doing? Long-term investment, would you say? Yeah, Chris, in terms of the longer-term opportunity for the S&P, I would say so. Let this week pass before really looking to get in. The, the last few weeks, what we've seen with With stocks on the weekend, you can't quite predict, um, where they're going to end up Monday. You're having gaps lower and higher. I mean, you can see here, let's put this on a 60-minute. You can see this gap that we had at the beginning of this whole run, the end of February, pushed lower. We've had a couple other weekend moves down as well, like we had here. So yeah, lit— I would let it pass. And I think for longer-term opportunities, you're better off being late than trying to catch this falling knife. So yeah, that's, uh, that's how I'd go about that. Let's have a quick look back at the euro. Obviously got 10 minutes now, probably the best to not get into any new trades. I mean, look how good that previous low of the day is here, uh, getting a lot of noise around those lows. So, you know, can we get I'd say because I don't have to get press conference, but 15-minute close below the low of the day, I think we can get 111.15 by the end of it. But holding up nicely, holding up nicely. Yeah, what— yeah, absolutely, Chris, an incredible time in, in the markets at the moment. I think it's, uh, a lot of people been waiting for this for a long time and now it's come. It's you know, a day feels like a week, doesn't it? VIX are good, good stuff. Marlon, I'm bringing the Euro Swissie, uh, on the futures. It's quite an illiquid market, um, so maybe I'll sort of do something on Twitter about that later on the spot. But you can see that overall has been drifting down, um, and I, you know what, I still, I think there's still downside to come. To be honest, for this market. And, uh, let's just remove a few of these lines where it's just a bit congested. Um, so now we're, you know, technically confirmed nice closes below these 2016 June levels. I, I think we can, over the medium term, I think we can get down to where we traded back in July 15th, 103s, 104s. I think there's still a bit of room to, to go here. You know, speaking of the volatility, anyone, anyone trading when this happened here? The January the 15th, massive move, massive move lower, and then we came back, hit it on, well, 3 and a bit years later to the tick, and it's come down since. Incredible, incredible. Frederick, what do you think, uh, any of the usual indicators, non-farm payrolls, PMIs, etc., would change anything to the broader industry? No. I think we're, we're expecting data now to, to not be good, um, and it's, it's almost like the last week, two weeks, any data releases you might as well not even, even look to trade them, unfortunately. From, from that point of view, I think it's, it's going to be, you know, cases dying off and the virus drifting away. That's going to ultimately be the main driver, and then Once that's settled, then okay, data releases. And then when you start seeing perhaps pickups in those PMIs and consumer sentiment and stuff like that, that's when we can, you know, get a further push higher. I mean, there's still banks out there that think we get a rally into year-end. Um, I think at the moment I do agree, and reason being, I do think once the— if the virus, once it sort of disappears, Trump then is still the favorite. I know some people won't agree with that, but he'll do whatever it takes to get these, these stock markets higher. Anyone see that he, uh, he deleted his, his tweet he did earlier in the year about people's 401s? Uh, obviously the internet never forgets, and there's plenty of screenshots of that. Peter, how are you doing? Are you still in Spain, uh, at the moment? What's the situation, uh, like there? Would an equity gap down spike yen higher? Um, we're— you can see here, let's get that back. So we're now at 8,500. Remember before it was just over 6,000, uh, orders waiting to be filled. So this gap's getting bigger by the minute. Um, it will— it definitely increase the volatility. It would definitely increase the volatility for, for the yen. Um, let's just put this on the 15-minute. You can see we're sort of drifting down a bit just as Uh, we're waiting in anticipation, but I think it will initially, yes, spike it. But just because we gap lower doesn't mean that the next minute doesn't push equities higher. It's going to be very frantic at that open. Kevin looking to short gold once it breaks this level. Is that reasonable? Have a quick look at gold. I mean, the only issue is it's down so much today, um, but that is key. I mean, look at that, 1606, such good resistance. Resistance pop higher. Yeah, I think, I think it's okay. I would want a bit of confirmation before that. Nice, nice closing, closing price. And just bringing the man himself back into the picture, 5 minutes to the open, 5 minutes to, to Christine. I know where my focus is. Is going to be. I think that's, uh, I want to see what happens on these opens. Well, she's the owl, isn't she? So bring in a cup.

She is indeed an owl. Um, I just saw one of the questions there, um, as if you were asking about the Fed. Uh, obviously we've got the press conference coming up, we'll focus on that, but a quick response to the Fed. Um, yeah, I don't disagree with really what mainstream is saying now, which is multiple rate cuts come from the Fed. I think rates are going to go down to basically zero. And so whether that comes in two, two clips, 50 on the 18th and 50 in April, I mean, that's what Goldman's are calling for. I don't disagree with that. I do think that's probably a better strategy than going 75, 100 now because you either go 50 or 100 at this point, because I don't— if you leave 25 left on the table, you're not really going to execute that after you've gone staggered up 50, 75, 25. So I think logically, uh, the Fed either go 100 or they go 50 and 50, and I think the latter is probably more prudent given the fact it buys them a little bit more time. Let's just see how the market responds. Now other central banks are following suit, and governments will come forward with fiscal stimulus. I think then there's no need to deploy every bullet in your chamber. You might as well keep a few back and then just roll it out accordingly. And hopefully markets will stabilize in the interim period. Coming up for the press conference then, I think I did briefly mention what it is, the main things we're looking out for. And those main things being then is, for me, it's okay, so what's her, what's her assessment of current economic conditions? How does she see this virus impacting the eurozone economy right now. And these measures obviously have been deployed in order to address the situation as they see fit today. What I'm interested in is how much worse has it got to develop, and to what level, and then what would be the action taken by the bank, what would be the next steps. Obviously some of those other more, I guess, other options that that they haven't done, which is increasing the QE program in terms of talking about the issuer limits, in terms of the 33% up to 40%, 50%, these types of things. Some more details around that could be quite interesting, but let's see. With the press conference, I'm not sure if Sam mentioned it or not, but in terms of how the process goes, essentially you have an opening statement. They'll also be issuing the staff macroeconomic projections. I don't think they're going to be particularly market-moving. It's not so much about what they're trying to predict now, it's about then in the future, um, what happens then beyond this point, because still there's a lack of clarity, of course, about how impactful this is going to be. At the moment, it's only really Italy on full lockdown, but logic would suggest that areas like France, Germany, Spain, they're all going to have to do similar at some point. It's just Italy's further down that line on that incubation and then spread and further contamination at this point. So yeah, look out for those. And then she'll go into a Q&A, and the way the Q&A works is typically the first couple of questions are the most important. They will be the ones where people will really be pressing her for details about, well, what else have you got? In terms of your arsenal of tools in order to counteract this. So we'll be starting shortly. They're normally pretty prompt when they come out. Yeah, the circuit breaker in the SMB— or SM— in the S&P has been hit. The NASDAQ was already limit down overnight on the travel ban, obviously, on Europe for 30 days from Trump in his somewhat lackluster on detail announcement of his fiscal package. So that disappointed markets. What's oil markets looking like at the moment, Sam? I mean, oil was already— that's the other key asset to watch during the US session, of course, because a travel ban has big implications on fuel demand, which is a big component of the amount of consumption just generally used for oil as a product. So yeah, oil is under pressure and just touching session lows then, right on cue. So technically, where have we got under there? We've got that low on the overnight on the 10th.

This area is massive. $30, let's call it. Yeah, big level.

So you got, you got the S2, $30.22, followed by that low on the 10th, $30.11. And then you've got that low seen— well, that was the blowout we had at the reopening of trade at the beginning of the week, wasn't it? When the Saudis came out and said about their plan of pumping more crude, discounting 20% under market prices for new customers, and so on. So yeah, I mean, it's back on again in crude as well as equities today.

Yeah, just quickly on the open, we've got 15 seconds. Uh, 7% down is around 2549, so we— there's a possibility we could actually gap straight away, uh, to 7% limit down. So just be aware of that, 2549. So keep an eye on the ladder in the middle. Here we go on the open. Okay, we're back.

Go.

Okay, keep in mind 2549 is the lowest we can go. About to go limit down 7% almost.

Have we got the numbers?

1200. Yeah, board is down there.

You got numbers here. Just now I've hit my 10 contracts long on the S&P here, just on that bounce off the NASDAQ. I'm going to put my stop in. I obviously need to manage this incredibly closely. I'm going to start to put some— I don't have it, I cut it now because there's a leak thing. It's not a long-term trade, I just want to trade the initial bounce. I did have 10 contracts, I've now got 7.

Yeah, Mojo, big gap down there. Um, I just want to bring in that S&P again because literally that low is pretty much the lowest it can go before a 15-minute pause of trade to the downside. So yeah, keep a, keep an eye. Let's have a quick look over the S&P, uh, the Dow Jones as well. That's actually pushing down a bit. NASDAQ as well here, just having a nice little bounce. But keep an eye on those levels futures-wise at 2549. Not saying we're going to hit it but if we do, can't go lower.

Okay, she's kicking off now.

Christine Lagarde kicking off.

Christine Lagarde is now talking. I've got 5 contracts placed at the start.

Well, ladies and gentlemen, the Vice President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today's meeting of the Governing Council, which was also also attended by the Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis. Since our last Governing Council meeting in late January, the spread of the coronavirus, COVID-19, has been a major shock to the growth prospects of the global economy and the euro area economy. And it has heightened market volatility. Even if ultimately temporary by nature, it will have a significant impact on economic activity. In particular, it will slow down production as a result of disrupted supply chains and reduce domestic and foreign demand, especially through the adverse impact of the necessary containment measures. In addition, the heightened uncertainty negatively affects expenditure plan and their financing. Governments and all other policy institutions are called upon to take timely and targeted actions to address the public health challenge of containing the spread of the coronavirus and mitigate the economic impact. In particular, an ambitious and coordinated fiscal policy response— ambitious and coordinated fiscal policy response— is required to support businesses and workers at risk. The Governing Council strongly supports the commitment of euro area governments and the European institutions to joint and coordinated policy action in response to the repercussions of the spread of the coronavirus. We also welcome the decisions taken by the ECB's supervisory board, which are detailed in a in a separate press release, which I'm sure you have seen and was published earlier today. In line with our mandate, the Governing Council is determined to support households and firms in the face of the current economic disruption and heightened uncertainty. Accordingly, we decided on a comprehensive package of monetary policy measures. Together with the substantial monetary policy stimulus already in place, these measures will support liquidity and funding conditions for households, businesses, and banks, and will help to preserve the smooth provision of credit to the real economy. Let me start with the first. We decided to conduct temporarily additional longer-term refinancing operations, also known by you as LTROs, in order to provide immediate liquidity support to the euro area financial system. Although we do not see material signs of strains, in money markets or liquidity shortages in the banking system, these operations will provide an effective backstop in case of need. They will be carried out through a fixed-rate tender procedure with full allotment, with an interest rate that is equal to the average rate on the deposit facility the DFR. The LTRO will provide liquidity at favorable terms to bridge the period until the TLTRO3 operation in June 2020. And I come to the second—

okay, so just, uh, just quickly, um, Lagarde is still reading out the opening statement at the moment, but just keeping on these US equities, they're just taking another push down, so So it looks like the S&P now in limit down 7%. The Dow's now down nearly 2,000 on the session now.

So it looks like these operations—

bank lending to those affected most by the spread of the coronavirus, in particular small and medium-sized enterprises. Throughout that period, the interest rates on these TLTRO3 operations will be 20%.

Yeah, Mojo, you pointed out, and we talked about it earlier as well, keep an eye here, Dow Jones on that, uh, December the 26th low. It's a matter of, uh, you know, points or minutes away that this could get hit here. So I know 7% lower is also not far. But at any point today, definitely have this level marked up. 26th of December 2018, 21,400.

I was just gonna say, let me just— I'll mark the ones up and then perhaps Sam can put colors on them. But level— well, I'll call them out, Sam. Why don't you mark them up so we've got them on our charts anyway? So level 1, 7% stop out, 25, 46.5. So exactly where we are. Level 2, 13%, is 2382. Yeah, but this is, you know, this is why those circuit breakers are in play. That's highly unlikely, I say that, but you'll get down to those levels. I mean, when I was trading, monitoring the— when I was squawking through the financial crisis, very rare to us get down to the level 2. So let's do the other indices as well, just so we know what we're looking at. So the NASDAQ level 1, 7%, 7441.5. So we're at that limit down now. Level 2, 6961 is level 2 on the circuit breaker for the NASDAQ. So 61— 6961.

Yeah.

And for the Dow, just one second. Go for the Dow. Level 1, 21,873.

21,8—

Yeah, that looks a bit off, doesn't it? I'll check with the guys on that one then. And level 2, they got a 20,460.

20,460.

Well, let me, let me get concrete on the Dow then.

Yeah, we'll keep an eye on that. But yeah, you can see NASDAQ where they're all limit down and Yep, just like we saw Monday. Insane moves. And, uh, let's have a quick look, Peter, going back to your question earlier on about the, uh, the, the yen. Choppier, to be honest.

Keeping on that crude as well.

Yeah, definitely.

The inflation outlook robustly converged to levels that's too low, guys, that's too low, but below 2% within our projection horizon.

Yeah, then WTI crude's testing now down at that S2 level. So he's just going to bring the chart into shot now. So remember, pre this all kicking off at half past, there was that key level, that 10th low that we saw, which was the— you got the S1, the 10th low, and that $30 handle all residing around that similar point. So keep an eye on crude here. The general correlation tightness between the equity and the oil move have been fairly coordinated of late. And so that could be another trigger point as well. Perhaps then we're in the 15-minute halt. If we used to get another reopening of trade in a push down then to level 2 type territory, then for sure I'd expect oil to come under similar type pressure. But perhaps the oil market is going to be reluctant to break down through that low without equities being in play, given the fact they've been halted at the minute. Let's see.

The Governing Council will continue to monitor closely the implications of the spread of the coronavirus for the economy, for medium-term inflation, and for the transmission of its monetary policy. The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments as appropriate to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry. Let me now quickly explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. The latest indicators suggest a considerable worsening of the near-term growth outlook. The disruption of supply chains is impeding production plans in the manufacturing sector, while necessary containment measures against the further spread of the coronavirus are adversely affecting economic activity. Before the coronavirus outbreak, euro area real GDP growth moderated to 0.1% quarter on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2019, following growth of 0.3% in the third quarter of 2019. This mainly reflected the ongoing weaknesses— in the euro area manufacturing sector and slowing investment growth. Looking beyond the disruption stemming from the coronavirus, euro area growth is expected to regain traction over the medium term, supported by favorable financing conditions, the euro area fiscal stance, and the expected resumption in global activity. Now, this assessment— that I've just shared with you is only partly reflected in the March 2020 ECB staff macroeconomic projection for the euro area, as the data cutoff date predates the most recent rapid spread of the coronavirus to the euro area. These projections, which are by necessity partly outdated, as you understand it, foresee annual real GDP increasing by 0.8% in 2020, 1.3% in 2021, and 1.4% in 2022. In particular, the projections foresee very muted growth in the first half of 2020, followed by an improvement in the second half of the year. Compared with the December 2019 Eurosystem Staff Macroeconomic Projections, the outlook for real GDP growth has been revised down notably for 2020 and slightly for 2021 on account of the potential economic impact of the coronavirus.

So what levels now in the, the DAX?

Yeah, well, you can see here, this is— bring that into picture— we're talking about 15, 16 levels, and we're actually hitting those now. I mean, this— look, you're short DAX, take profit at least some of it here because this level is, is really, really key. You can just have a look at the these wicks here going back from early '15, late '15, '16. It's just a key, key level for oil's going as well. Now oil going as well here. That's fantastic. $30 in a couple of seconds. This is a big—

yeah, keep an eye on oil here. $30. If we start getting through here, then yeah, you got to think it's gonna start getting potentially opening up more weight could come in. The equities are still halted at the minute. When these equities open, if oil hits that level and the DAX breaks through there, then—

yeah, I think that would be— that's it, definitely keep an eye on that. Because if we, like I say, if we go back to what happened on Monday, you got the 13%, but look at what happened after that. So that's where we opened, then after we paused 15 minutes, it it's incredibly volatile. Like I said, just because we open and we're going to gap a bit more doesn't mean we're guaranteed to move lower. Let the DAX be the, the sort of cue here. That's how I would look at it anyway. Uh, let's put that DAX back onto maybe a 5-minute. I mean, look at this, look at the bounce from that level. Insane.

Yeah, wow. It's all right, it's just, uh, 100, just 100 ticks. Spicy. Yeah, well, here you go. The staff— the staff projections are coming out in 2022.

Compared with the December 2019 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the outlook for HICP inflation is broadly unrevised over the projection horizon. The implications of the coronavirus for inflation are surrounded by high uncertainty. Given that downward pressures linked to weaker demand may be offset by upward pressures related to supply disruption. The recent sharp decline in oil prices poses significant downside risks to the short-term inflation outlook. Turning now to the monetary analysis.

That's— and oil on those key levels. Big, big bounce on that. I think that's $30 to the tick. And look how that was protected early hours on Sunday here as well. So beware, we're going to open up soon, and if oil and DAX continue this bounce, don't expect US equities to tumble.

Sorry, um, used to be the main contributor to broad money growth. Loans to the private sector continued to expand. The annual growth rate of loans to household picked up somewhat to 3.7% in January 2020 from 3.6% in December 2019. The annual growth rate of loans to non-financial corporations remained unchanged at 3.2% in January, confirming the moderation seen since autumn 2019 and likely reflecting the typically lagged reaction to the past weakening in the economy. Overall, our accommodative monetary policy stance, including the measures taken today that I have just described for you, will safeguard favorable bank lending conditions and will continue to support access to financing, including for those affected most by the ramifications of the coronavirus, and in particular for small and medium-sized enterprises. To sum up, a cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with the signals coming from the monetary analysis confirmed that an ample degree of monetary accommodation is necessary for the robust convergence of inflation to levels that are below but close to 2% over the medium term. Regarding fiscal policy— policies that I have already addressed very early on in this communication, an ambitious and coordinated fiscal stance is now needed in view of the weakened outlook and to safeguard against the further materialization of downside risks. We certainly welcome the measures already taken by several governments to ensure sufficient health sector resources and to provide support to affected companies and employees. In particular, measures such as providing credit guarantees are needed to complement and reinforce the monetary policy measures that I have announced today. We welcome the commitment of the euro area governments and the European institutions to act now, strongly, and together in response to the repercussions of the further spread of the coronavirus. Before I take your questions, together with the Vice President, we would like, on behalf of the Governing Council, to express our profound gratitude to all those who are dedicating their time and their efforts in saving life and containing the spread of the coronavirus. With that—

and also let me just announce—

oh dear, I made a mistake. The APPs envelope that we're putting together as part of our increased this special effort is €120 billion, not €100 billion. That's €120 billion as an envelope specifically intended to address the current situation that comes on top of our previous APPs, and that will be available until the end of the year.

Let me now just announce a slightly different setup, as you can see. So we'll be— we'll be taking—

yeah, just to be clear, that $120 billion, that was in the initial statement, that was part of the initial release. So that's not new information which she was just covering.

Bear with me also, we're trying out this for the first time today, but I'll start with in the room with Mr. Skolimov.

We're into the Q&A now, and usually the first couple of questions are the most pressing and potentially market-moving. We're still awaiting Stocks should be reopening in the next couple of minutes as well after that 15-minute Level 1 halt.

Just take one minute.

Could you give us the reason why there was no rate cut today? Is it because there was not enough support for such a move within the Governing Council, or maybe you all considered this is counterproductive? That's my first question. Another question is about the issue you mentioned as the last, which is this extra envelope. Of QE. Have you also discussed as part of adding that envelope change to your issue and issuer limits of the current program? And also, will the decisions change anything?

Okay, we've reopened now in the US equity markets. So Sam's got it on his screens. We got here center going left to right, NASDAQ, Dow, and the S&P. So a little bit of a gap down, but as Sam said before, before. Just keep an eye on the initial movement, hugely volatile in the first minute or two on those candlesticks print when we reopen. Uh, oil's had a significant bounce. You can see there we've gone from a $30 test at the lower bound of that rectangle we had marked up all the way up, back up to $67, which was the break of the overnight low levels. And here's the DAX as well. The DAX now 200-odd point reversal over the period of, yeah, 6 minutes or so. So what do you think now, Sam? We come back up, is that a good area of resistance now? The gapped— yeah, the closing gap move in there.

So S&P, you'd be eyeing up that 2546 as a, as a place to get short on this. Oil is interesting because that previous low where we closed, it will will be one to keep an eye on there. If that holds as resistance, it's gonna help stocks move lower as well here.

Here we go, S&P again, a little heavy there. Another little leg, can we get the ladder up so we can just see the—

As that comes through, let me just bring that into picture.

Yeah, so just got the S&P ladder there, just so we can see the momentum in the market there. You can see the ferocity of which this market is moving. You know, it's incredibly thin as well. Look at the bid-offer, the volume there. I mean, it's hardly anything in the market. No wonder it's chopping about so much. I mean, look at the Dow, the spread on that is unreal. Yeah, you've got to be— yeah, look at the— yeah, the spread on the Dow, you can see it's just, it's just 1 and 5s really. And you can see it hitting it, coming down in staggered fashions there, just given the lack of liquidity on the board.

Oh la la.

So it's only— yes, we can see the Dow on the chart. Yeah, another push down in the Dow, so 2,100 down now in the session.

Yeah, DAX drifting as well. We're actually below that 17800 low.

So Sam, let's have a look at some of the other related markets here. But before I do, yeah, look at that. This is your—

This is, you've got to keep an eye on here on the Dow, not just right now, but the day itself. If we can confirm a break before this.

Yeah, there goes the Dow. Look at the Dow now, break on that level, that low. Yeah, it's another nice extension there on that move.

It's done 200 points from the break of that level.

Yes, so go back on that long time frame. So big, big long-standing level, taken that out, immediate 200-point collapse on the break of that, that low point from the beginning of the year. So now 2100, Sam's gonna be, uh, Sam's gonna owe me, uh, Sam's actually gonna become my full-time servant. Because we had a little bet going on here that he was basically gonna, um, well, I won't go into details, but I'll see you tomorrow morning reported nice and early for your duty, sir. So here we go. Yeah, well, so 2100, is that that high as well there from Piggy?

Where to buy? Don't buy. Not in conditions like this.

Yeah, I mean, that target there, look at that bounce off the Dow there. You've got that high print and that low print there as well. So before we get to 2100, that's a— that's an obstacle there to get through if we're going to start pushing further on the downside. So Sam, what was that? Um, what's the next level down on the level 2s?

Uh, if you go to 1 minute, we'll have it marked up. I think it's 20,000.

Yeah, we've got to get quite a bit further down, isn't it?

But here we're just retesting that, uh, that December level here. Here. 5-minute close is imperative on this, where we close.

Gold, yeah, quick look over at gold.

It's going to move the euro chart out, which is a mess, and bring in—

yeah, just while he's bringing up the charts, the euro is not moving a great deal at the moment. Um, I think because there's a lot of people sidetracked. It's a very unusual situation because normally the New York Stock Exchange is not in for another half an hour, but obviously it's right now the action is happening. So this kind of conflict of interest here, given the severity of the sell-off in US equities, that's driving a lot of the sentiment and almost taking away a little bit the emphasis on the, on the Lagarde conference for the moment. But yeah, just looking at gold, yeah, totally counterintuitive move obviously in gold to what logic would suggest would be, which would be that more flight-to-quality bid This is very reminiscent now of every time we see stocks get, get hit. And this was, this was when, yeah, that we took that first big meaningful downward move, when that was that whole talk about there's a lot of big money in the market that was long.

Yeah.

And they're getting squeezed. And so then they're just coming out, they've got to liquidate some of these positions to free up available margin. And gold, it's every single time you've seen that. Every Friday it's been, and now just given how big this move has become, you know, it's the same sort of issue, I guess. And 1600's got to help that move.

That's it, we've just done, done $100 in less than a week. VIX above 69.

Okay, T-notes, a quick look over. Yeah, T-notes, bit of a different story actually, not really that much movement. I mean, I must stress though that the US 10-year in less than 24 hours has gone 2 handles basically. So we were already up, you know, a good 22, 23 ticks when I came in this morning in the European Open. You know, we're up about— yeah, I should say 2 full points. So I think for a large extent it's reflecting that already. So yeah, maybe a a lesser extent. Don't forget, markets are pretty much fully priced now for rates to go to zero already, so not too much more wiggle room in terms of altering of those expectations.

Yeah, guys, a lot of talk in the chat about that 21,000 level. We were joking, weren't we? You know, I didn't— when I said it, I wasn't serious. I was.

So yeah, there's a spot of gardening I need. I need a couple of tiles on my roof. Redone. So yeah, whenever you— if you, if you come, come around at about 5:30 in the morning, you can take the trash out.

Well, hang on, the Dow has— on that level is, is nose— the trading gods are on my side right now and it's bounced, well, almost 500 points from that level. S&P back on its 5%, uh, gap down. The DAX trying to push higher. Let's have a quick look over oil because if those markets are are going higher, you can guess what oil's doing, and it's above there and it's pushing on, and it's about $31 now, right?

So that's a good— that's a good point where the correlated moves are quite telling for the timing around these trades. So if you were going to get aggressive and look to get involved in this market at the moment, you know, one thing to be clear, this is a high, high, incredibly high-risk time to trade in terms of these intraday, very short, sharp type movements, different ball game. If you're holding a good entry point for a much higher time frame, longer holding position in this type of movement, then the timing on when to, you know, come out of trades, for example, that cross-asset movement is really important. So like Sam was just saying, you know, he already knew what oil would be going by the benefit of knowing then where all these other assets are already moving, you know. So those correlations, they have they're not a fixed thing, and they do change and fluctuate even during the course of one day, never mind days. But it's a good way to try and get that timing down on the execution and risk managing of trades. But yeah, really, really aggressive bounce at 2,500 in the S&P. Can we see the S&P on a longer timeframe?

Yes, bring this in the picture.

Right, let's have a look at the daily on the the, um, the S&P.

Well, yeah, look, that was the points we talked about this morning. Two potential places to get long longer term if we have some nice price action. The original 2018 low and then the box of day one. They all test lower.

Where we close the day here is going to be really interesting, really, really interesting for stocks of the economy and to make sure that the liquidity risk doesn't materialize, that the credit continues to flow to the economy, and that we address the market excess sensitivities in order to restore some stability. That's what we are concerned about. And I remember saying when my predecessor and friend, President Draghi, left and when I had interviews before the European Parliament that I would hope that I would never have to do whatever it takes. What is good about our today's deliberation— deliberations is that there was rallying support around the table to use all the tools available and to consider adjusting our instruments going forward in order to target those risks that we see as threats to stability in the euro area.

I just saw a stat with that gold dump that we were just talking about back through 1600. That was on the back of 100,000 contracts. That's a nominal $16 billion that just went through the gold market on that, that drop through 1600. Yeah, equities continuing to speed quite seesaw here. Christine Lagarde still going at the moment.

With the additional net asset purchases, limits such as the issuer limit might become a problem quickly or more quickly, for example, in the case of Germany. Do the decisions on the APP change anything about the fact that the ECB capital key is the central orientation for the purchases under the PSPP program? That's his first question. And the second one is, does the decision not to reduce the deposit rate also have to do with the changed assessment that the rate is already closer to the so-called reversal rate than previously assumed?

Oh, that's— on the latter one, it's very simple. We are certainly not at the reversal rate. I mean, if we were at the reversal rate, we would not see the growth of credit as I have described for you, both to the households sector and to the enterprises sector. So no, we are not at the reversal rate and we are certainly not at the lower band rate. And if in the future it is necessary for the purpose of dealing with the risks at the time to address that through the DFR, we will do so. On the other point, I think I've dealt extensively with this issue of limits, and all I have to say at this moment again is that we will use all flexibilities embedded in the framework of our asset purchase programme and— bear in mind, by the way, to this nice person who is on the line and that I salute—

just a quick tweet I've seen which I thought was quite interesting. If the FT S&P 100 closed the day right now, this would be the worst one-day fall, bigger than any single day during the financial crisis, worse than any single day since Black Monday, 1987. Insane.

Let me ask you a question about the timing of your decisions. When did you realize that this situation is getting out of control and you need to come up with, like, a bold package? And why didn't you act like the Fed directly after the— this first G7 call? And another question would be, where do you think could the funds come from? Is the ESM, for example, a good source to deploy funds also on a eurozone level?

You know, on the eurozone level and at the European level at large, but I'm more concerned about the euro area, of course, in my position, I think all governments have to be on deck and ready to act. I also think that all European institutions have to to join forces and rally around this collective package that needs to be put in place. We are in very, very frequent dialogue with the European Investment Bank, for instance, with the European Commission, clearly. With the European Stability Mechanisms, I have not had very recent discussions, but it's clearly one of of the players on the European scene. And I think that, you know, all players have to play their part in due course and to join hands. I think it's a collective effort that needs to be, to be developed here.

Yeah, see, but it is insane. Not enough words to describe markets right now. Euro just coming down to the low of the day as well.

Keep in mind, just touching the low there. and some have suggested the package compares poorly with the BOE. What would you say to them? That's my first question. Secondly, you said today's decision was—

Andre, hope you're good. Really good trader, guys. Do follow him on Twitter.

As I've said, the decision was unanimous, and, uh, that unanimity, uh, I think— yeah, don't think that's a bad idea, uh, demonstrating our resolve to deal with the issues.

I know, Mojo, it's not good.

Now, as to markets, first of all, it takes a little bit of time generally for decisions to be analyzed.

Not good.

And appreciated. The fact that we are dealing with this full allotment liquidity facility at reduced rate compared with current situation.

New low for the euro, guys.

The fact that we are putting in place a massive targeted long-term refinancing system that is available to all with a particular focus on SMEs and with multipliers that are significant. If you look at the volume of lending that can be accessed, we're talking about 50% relative to previous— and title loan book, if you will.

Still no cap.

We're talking about an entry rate of -25 basis points and we're talking about an ultimate interest rates based on the track record of the lending institution of -75 basis points. I'm not sure that you can actually so much rival with that at the moment.

Yeah, Mojo, yeah, the Dow 15,000 hats need to be, well, searched for, I guess, because it's from years ago.

Jan-Martin Handelsblatt. Concerning— I have one question concerning bank lending. The ECB can provide cheap money, but the most important problem at the moment might be that banks are more reluctant to give pass-on credit because of the risks. Is it necessary to have some form of national or maybe European guarantee schemes to ensure that And my second question is, you've mentioned that there will probably be a lot of debt issuance in the future. At the moment, certain countries are hit especially hard, like Italy. What can the ECB do if the spreads for government bonds increase? Would it be an option to activate, for example, OMT program, or could there be other possibilities to help certain countries?

Thank you.

You know, on the guarantee scheme, I think I was very explicit in the introductory statement on that, but I'm happy to restate it. We are making available to all enterprises with a focus on SMEs massive refinancing means, okay, at very preferential rates and in significant amounts. To encourage banks to actually use that facility, we believe, and we have put in the introductory statement, that guarantee schemes would very much be in order. So in other words, it's a guarantee that is put together by the state or an agency of the state or a European agency in order to support all or a portion of the risk that is actually taken by the bank in extending lending facility to an enterprise, notably in a sector which is particularly exposed. I mean, that is how we believe that the financing we're putting in place will be most efficient. Okay? Now, whether that is conducted at the national level or at the European level is for the policymakers to decide. What matters to us is that it is in place as rapidly as is possible. Some countries have already taken steps or are exploring steps in that direction, and I would certainly, from— for the efforts that we are undertaking, I would certainly hope that they do that. Promptly in order to make sure that credit continues to flow to the economy, particularly the SMEs that are vulnerable in the present circumstances. So that was my point number one. My point number two has to do with more debt issuance coming down the road depending on the fiscal expansion that will be determined by policymakers. Well, we will be there, as I said earlier on, using full flexibility, but we are not here to close spreads. This is not the function or the mission of the ECB. There are other tools for that and there are other actors to actually deal with those issues.

I'm now also going to go back to online. A question from Ms. Poufakie. Sole 24 Ore. And the first question is again on interest rates. We are living in extraordinary times and Italy is—

yeah, so Sam's just adjusting the charts at the moment because we're starting to see some interesting asset class movements. So gold's continuing to remain heavy as it was when we initially broke earlier. As I said, some huge, huge volume going through the market there. And it's just interesting because there's a lot of people probably getting hurt badly. You remember at the beginning of the year, nearly every major Wall Street bank was calling 3,400 targets and subsequent kind of 6 end-of-year targets. A lot of fund managers as well. You know, this— I think it's just the speed and of this sell-off that's occurred over the last couple of, well, sessions, 2 weeks in in particular, and that's putting a lot of pressure on the ability to meet these, these margin calls. And now the euro coming under some pressure as well. So just wanted to keep the asset class kind of mix here, um, just as trying to move our screens around so we can keep an eye on everything because we, we obviously have a bank of multiple screens here. But obviously, so you guys can see, you've got euro top left and then crude S&P 500 futures, then you've got the Dow future and gold session lows again. So gold, what's any levels here on the downside if you keep heavy in gold?

Yeah, obviously we've got through that key level we were talking about, and I would say the next one really, 1576, is a point to be aware of here, which was the low that we had back on the 2nd of March. Big, big area looking to come through. I guess where we are now, just trying to break through, you might have a bit of a pause around here was the low of the, uh, sort of afternoon of the 2nd, but it's not really too interesting.

Can we get the gold ladder up? Just see the gold, because I reckon that's looking heavy. I think that's going to go again now.

Let's have a look. Bring that in there, BCE. Just bring that in. I'll put that on just in the middle there.

Gosh, it's so thin, isn't it? Yeah. There you go, another little push. It's looking a little heavy there. I think you might see that 76 coming up. When it goes though, it'll just be like a rug getting pulled from your feet. Yeah, let's see. Let's have another look then and go beyond 76. Where then after?

70s will be a point, 65s below that.

Yeah, I mean, yeah, it's got that prevailing low, isn't it? 64, 65.

Yeah, really interesting. Sterling is drowning. I imagine it's doing what the, uh, what the euro is doing as well. Plus some then. Yeah, you're right, down to 126. 600 pips below the recent high we had. Insane. You know, every briefing I've been doing for the last few weeks, I've been talking about how I feel like I missed such a good opportunity to buy the pound. Well, it's below that level now.

Yeah, the Dixie's up over a percent now.

Yeah, interestingly, the yen isn't catching a bid. Dollar, dollar is king at the moment. There you go, goal for your level, or coming up to, I should say.

So I guess with the dollar movement, I mean, the Fed have already shown their hand, the market's already priced for that. The others are now playing catch-up. The ECB is acting with all these other liquidity measures, these provisions to help smooth over credit into the economy, the refinancing operations, the Bank of England cutting. I guess if everything looks materially as worse as it can be, I mean, I guess the dollar still has that status that it's got to be a better backstop than the other currencies in that extent. Given the world's largest economy. So yeah, just interested, the dollar really strengthening at this point. And from a cable point of view, we've talked about this in the briefing, you know, not only was the UK economy under some distinct pressure on the back of the uncertainties emanating from politics over the course of the last 18-24 months, that was— so we're already on the back foot, and now throw in the fact that I haven't seen any updates as yet, but obviously there's been high-level COBRA meeting happening at Number 10 Downing Street today, and they could take the step of closing down all schools and nurseries later on this afternoon. And that's the first of the inevitable moves then for further quarantining, you know, live sports matches like we've seen in other countries, like in the US with the NBA and football and elsewhere in Europe. And so it's almost inevitable, I guess. And so in that sense, yeah, cable for me, it has to come down. Yeah, the fundamentals are so—

unfortunately for the pound longer-term bulls like myself, it's, it's, you know, sit on the bench, sit on the bench about that.

Because what's that higher there coming up?

So he said this morning, he said it's a matter of time before it gets to 126, and it's done it. Uh, where's that, 250 pips since the briefing. So you're looking here probably, you know, yeah, 124.76 medium term if you're going to get pound strength continuing.

Okay, and then we got a couple of the guys in Bahrain on in the chat now, so Dana, Bader, Jazim, Ali, any of the guys in Bahrain, you got any questions? You can type them into the YouTube chat on the right-hand side because me and Sam can see that now. Alex is there as well helping out. If you've got any direct comments, let us know. But Christine Lagarde still in the Q&A for the moment.

Number one, considerably more attractive targeted long-term refinancing operation, particularly for these small and medium-sized enterprises. And a specific envelope of €120 billion for a special asset purchase program that will deploy and use all the flexibility embedded.

There's a couple people just looking at BTPs, which is the Italian bond market. The 10-year yield is up 55 basis points. The spread is blowing out. This is a pit— this is a chart on the 15-minute candlestick of the Italian BTP future. Yeah, that is painful. I mean, it's just dropped 3 points, 7 on the day. Yeah, so that's a huge move. I mean, look at the candlesticks here of the last 12 months of price action in the Italian market. They have not seen a move of that magnitude. You know, Italian FTSE MIB has been getting crushed as well under the idea that you know, a complete lockdown of that nation is going to really disrupt all of the businesses in Italy, because at the moment in Italy now it's only literally going to pharmacies and getting food. Otherwise, it's all about that distance, social distancing, and you're not allowed to basically do anything. And so, yeah, yields spiking at the moment. I mean, Italy, we're trying to throw— was it €25 billion, the latest stimulus package that Conte announced, the PM, yesterday. But yeah, they're getting— the yields are absolutely flying in Italy at the moment. So the BTP futures getting crushed, and obviously that's gonna also probably weigh on the euro as well, and consequently then just fueling more bids into the dollar, the reserve currency. And cable, as we said, fundamentally doesn't need another reason to come under some more pressure. So there's currency markets, definitely the there's reason to that movement. Yeah, gold just hesitating a little bit at this point, so didn't quite get the bite on that move.

$2 away.

I tried to do a bit of forecasting. We initially thought that the shock would be during the first quarter and the rebound will progressively start in the second. Clearly everybody now is moving to the line of is going to be a shock for the first 2 quarters and the rebound will be in the second half. Clearly, that schedule in and of itself and that timetable is shifting gradually. So the best thing to say is that there will be a rebound.

Okay, gold, gold, just having another little look. So I am really super keen here on that $76. If it gets through there, you might get another couple of bucks in the blink of an eye.

That very severe shock. If that is the case, our forecast for '21— very slightly reduced already— will reflect the bounce back of the economy, probably in the second half. '22 will also have a much better forecast. And the numbers will be published this afternoon in our macroeconomic provisions. So with that, clearly there is a shift that we're seeing in the economic cycle, but we still see inflation in 2022 at or about 1.6%, as will be published later on. We shall see, because clearly all these forecasts will have to be revisited on the basis of the policies that are taken by all the players in the next few weeks, I hope, and not months. Okay, so I hope that addresses your issue of the—

there you go, gold, gold just going now on that level. So we've now got down to that 76, so immediate $1.50 there. But just keep an eye on it now. As I was saying earlier, it did look a little heavy there on those levels. Yeah, it comes back up to that break level now. Let's see how it reacts around here. Obviously big liquidation going on in gold in the last 20 minutes or so.

The contribution of the demand versus supply to the current shock is, is going to be determined probably in a while, but We cannot tell exactly how that trade-off will take place. It's very likely that inflation will be lower than whatever we had forecasted this year. I would be dishonest if I was telling you something different. But what I'm trying to tell you is that we hope very much for a temporary nature of all these developments, followed by a bounce back that will take us back to a medium term that will be more in line with our forecast.

Any more questions in the room?

All we know for sure is that risks are definitely tilted to the downside. That's for sure. Mr. Kutamanos.

Thank you.

I've only got one question.

Ms. President, you have called upon national governments and other authorities to launch more urgent fiscal action, don't you think that the ECB as bank supervisor has to act too, for example, by lowering countercyclical buffers of capital or changing the tiering system on excess reserves?

Did you get that? Was that going to kill you, Philippe?

I don't mean to be— Rereading something that maybe you've read, but there was a press release that was just issued by the ECC banking supervision authority, and clearly, as of now— because that was decided earlier in the day by the ECB, which has to approve those new measures— banks can fully avail of capital and liquidity buffers, including Pillar 2 guidance. Banks will benefit from relief in the composition of capital for Pillar 2 requirements.

Dollar index, this new high here, so euro likely to hit a new low. Gold just flirting near those lows as well, guys. So keep an eye on the dollar index here.

So I think in relation to buffers, that's a clear use of all available buffers as they were designed for the current circumstances. The circumstances that we are facing. I'm now moving to a couple more questions that we have online.

One is from Mr. Lacour from the AFP. Italian Finance Minister Gualtieri said Wednesday that the Italian plan of €25 billion should be supported by adequate measures from the European Central Bank. Does the ECB want to specifically support Italy and how? Would SMPs or even OMTs concepts be potentially considered?

Well, Italy will be— Italian banks, Italian households, Italian enterprises will be fully beneficiaries and available— and sorry, eligible to all the tools that I have just mentioned, whether it's the massive liquidity access at very reasonable and preferential rates compared with what we have now, or whether it is the targeted long-term refinancing at very— yeah.

So Michelle, if you're, if you're new, first of all, thanks for, for joining the channel. Don't forget to subscribe. And then as per— there's some— an email address there if you have any questions at all for us. Or also, we do have a number of different types of training solutions, whether in-house in London or a fully online program. Do email or check out the website. But also my colleague Eddie, if you go on our YouTube channel, there's different playlists that we have, and Eddie specializes— I'll just switch over my screens now. So on our YouTube channel here, you've got top sector stocks for coronavirus volatility. If you haven't watched that yet, I mean, that's a really great video where Eddie goes into a different type of detail. I generally look at the market from a global macro perspective. He looks at it in a much more kind of corporate finance angle, so looking and delving into companies' balance sheets in more detail, looking at potential kind of sector rotation plays from a portfolio management point of view. So he's going to be releasing another one about a little bit more focus on credit spreads, CDSs, and things like the energy market, what companies could be susceptible in this type of environment of a $30 oil price. So that's going to be stuff we'll be releasing as well over the weekend. So make sure you check that out. Anyone else got any questions at the moment? Christine Lagarde still taking questions. My understanding is she's still probably got got a couple more.

First of all, we'll actually be entirely online.

Yeah, they were just talking about— I think I just caught the tail end of that— about the next briefing being entirely online. I guess that's likely just given the fact about the coronavirus and the expected expansion of that in in Germany and obviously elsewhere in Europe. All right, well, that wraps it up. Christine is done. I would love a photo of her face when she walks back into the office and checks her Bloomberg terminal, because that's going to be—

Be like my reaction.

Yeah, there's going to be a good GIF of Sam.

I got stitched up.

His face when they didn't cut 10. So yeah, I mean, look, let's have a quick check on things and then we'll wrap things up. There's a few other things we can mention as well that you might find useful. First of all, I guess, yeah, looking at the outcome here in markets, I don't think this is entirely— don't think that this is an entirely a Christine Lagarde-inspired 2,000-point loss in the Dow. The market was already limit down prior to even the ECB doing the first part of the release. And that was coming on the back of the two things really: Trump giving a national speech overnight London time, or would have been late in the US, and that causing futures markets to dramatically collapse in the overnight session, which weighed on Asia and subsequently saw Europe come under pressure. And that being a European-wide travel ban, and then also the fact that he's been so short on details of any type of the immediacy on a fiscal program and the way he keeps flipping and changing in terms of whether he does want to go for that or not. And then, then Christine Lagarde came out and obviously disappointed on the rate cut, decided not to go with the— what the market had been expecting, which was a 10 basis point cut in deposit rate. That didn't happen. They took steps instead to address more about this kind of smooth provision of credit to the economy through these targeted long-term term refinancing operations, basically supporting banks lending to small and medium-sized businesses. And that's, in my mind, that's a little bit better in a sense that that liquidity support to the banking system is more direct in that sense, rather than, you know, the actual tangible impact of another 10 basis points on the deposit rate. But overall, you can't deny the fact that this is a pretty historical day. I mean, what was that stat you said about the Black Monday?

So if the market closed when I said the stat, it would be the worst day FTSE's ever had since 1987. So any day during the financial crisis would have beat that.

Yeah, incredible. Cool. Well, look, I mean, otherwise, yeah, Oliver, hope you're well. So Oliver in the chat, um, Oliver's on the online, our new online e-learning portal And, um, so Oliver, we've been tracking your, your progress on the back end, and obviously you've been doing the assessments, so you're well on your way, of course, to getting your professional diploma certificate as well. So all of our training obviously is fully accredited, so that, you know, it's a big differential between us and other, I guess, companies that operate in the trading space, because some of them have certified courses, but us R1 is fully accredited by one of the oldest financial bodies in the City of London, the London Institute of Banking and Finance. The teaching that we deliver is a Level 6 Advanced Diploma, which is the highest in the UK for trader training. And then also in our technology that we use, we also are very involved in the graduate recruitment and training programs at the likes of many of the main Wall Street banks, asset managers, and so on. So, you know, very, very credible in that sense. And I want to stress that because I know how it can be quite difficult for a lot of people we encounter to try and find somewhere that's kind of a quality place for education as well as a serious trading outfit. And hopefully that these live sessions help help serve that purpose for you to get a bit of an insight into that. Sam will drop in a web link now, so if you are interested, I take it— I mean, if you're interested in coming to London to train with us, then just feel free to drop us an email. You can see that on the screen at the moment in the red part on the bottom of my screen. So if I just point, it's kind of here, if that works. info@amphitraining.com. Otherwise, there's a learning portal where you can learn all of the major things you need to be aware of, from risk managing to execution to macroeconomic fundamentals, monetary policy, the full monty. It's available on that learning platform. We've just posted the link there as well, so do feel free to, to check that out. All right, gonna end the live feed. Um, any of my team in Bahrain because we have a separate group in Bahrain as well as we have offices in China and also representation in Germany. But for the Bahrain guys, I'm going to see you shortly in the next 20 minutes or so and we can continue some of our session for the rest of the afternoon. All right?

All right, guys. Thank you very much. It's been an incredible couple of hours and I look forward to interacting with you guys shortly.