LIVE FOMC - 30th October 2019

Test. Can we just refresh? Can I just get a wave on the trading floor if you can hear me okay, and then we'll get going with the, with the brief. So anyone with their headsets on on the trading floor, can I get a wave? Just make sure everyone's logged in.

All good? Yeah.

All right, well, let's kick things off. Any questions? Just to let you know, Sam, the others, they're all on the, the chat at the moment. I can't actually see the chat on my computer at present, so I'll let Will address any questions, and Sam, if you have them. So I'm going to go straight in to the actual preview then for this main event. Uh, firstly, thank you very much for joining us. Uh, hopefully it's going to be an interesting and exciting event. Obviously we're expecting a, a rate cut from the US Central Bank, but much of the focus here is going to be on what happens next. And so kicking things off, let's get straight into it. I'm going to talk about the fundamentals first so we can understand at least this decision and announcement and what markets are expecting, how markets are positioned, and what are the specific action points that the macro trader like the traders here at Amplify look at in order to determine the decisions that they make in order to trade these markets. So looking at the order of play firstly, obviously there's a been a clock change between, uh, us and New York at the moment. Clocks don't change in the States until this weekend, so in fact there's only a 4-hour time differential. So it's a little bit earlier if you're in London, uh, 6 PM. Normally the Fed decisions will be 7. And so a two-part event. Again, for anyone new to these kind of events, just to go over the kind of basic what 101s of what you need to be aware of. So we're going to get the interest rate announcement first, accompanied by a statement from the Federal Reserve or the US Central Bank. Now, the rate decision, we're going to look at what the expectations are in a moment, but it's the statement which on that first part of the release will probably have the most meaningful impact on the markets to start with. Uh, there is no summary of economic projections at this meeting. Uh, what that means is there's 8 interest rate meetings a year from the Federal Reserve, but 4 of those— and these are on the calendar quarters of March, June, Sep, and Dec— we get additional information about the forecast for things like inflation, growth, unemployment, but importantly also interest rates. And that's not happening in this meeting, so just to make that clear, this one is a bit different in that respect. However, every meeting as of 2019, we do get a press conference now with the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. So that's going to kick off then at 6:30 London time, and he's going to read an opening statement, and then there'll be an audience Q&A, and this whole session lasts about 60 minutes. So that's the overall agenda of what's going to happen tonight. Throughout this, obviously, any questions as we go, feel free to ask any questions. The guys here are manning the chat room, so Sam, Charlie, Tommaso, Will, and the others. Having a look then at interest rates in the US, let's just set the scene firstly of what we're expecting today. And this is the, the kind of the, the rate path that we've had since the, what was the commencement of a process of normalization of interest rates in the US, which was initiated in December of 2015 with the first rate hike. However, they kind of failed to live up to the forward guidance of 4 rate hikes in 2016 because of those unforeseen events like the EU referendum vote going against expectations and Trump securing his place in the White House. They then went on a 9-rate hike cycle up until the recent point of where we've had in 2019 economic growth slowing, political risk escalation in trade war, no-deal potential Brexit albeit eliminated for the time being. And that has led to then the idea of a mid-cycle adjustment is what the Fed call it, which means then instead of rates coming all the way back down to kind of ground zero of where we were in the pre or post-financial crisis era, actually what the Fed have been saying is, look, the economy is weakening a little bit at the moment. We need to readjust our policy given incoming data and the change of circumstances. But this is by definition a mid-cycle adjustment. The cycle still is that interest rates are normalizing, i.e., been going higher. Now that sets up kind of the interest rate. So part one of what we're looking at tonight, and that is that the Fed have cut twice already and expectations are, as you can see here, this is the implied probabilities of a 25 basis point rate hike for from the Fed today, and federal funds rate futures are pricing in a 97.3% probability of a cut of 25. So it's pretty much all but guaranteed that they are going to reduce interest rates. Now, the Fed have never not done as markets have priced whenever pricing has been 50% plus. So the fact that it's almost 100% It would be a monumental seismic surprise if they were to not cut. If that was the case, you would see equities get absolutely hammered, yields would go through the roof, a dollar would spike aggressively, gold would hit the floor. But I can tell you that it's not going to happen, albeit that would be the market reaction if it did. So let's move on. What are we looking at? Now the question mark, of course, for everyone is about forward guidance. What are the Fed looking at in the future? Is this the last of a mid-cycle adjustment? Now this is looking at the federal funds rate futures for the end of the year. The reason why I'm looking at the end of the year is because there's 8 interest rate meetings from the Fed, and if you remember, there is no meeting in, no, in November. So we have the end of October, nothing in November until we get to December. Now in December the implied probability is that interest rates remain where they would be if they cut 25 today, i.e., there's one more left in this sequence of rate cuts. There's only 21% of the market expecting that actually there's going to be another cut. Now, a couple of things to have a look at here. Now, on this graph, on this chart, I've tried to— and well, the next two slides summarize division amongst probably the FOMC officials who will be making the judgment on what, what action to take. And I'm going to go through the case for cutting and also the case for potentially holding, or in fact maybe sounding a little bit more hawkish in the statement— more likely to be the reality. So a case for cutting: manufacturing slump. Now I've put here a graphic from ING, and you can see here 3 different lines. The orange line is manufacturing according to the Institute of Supply Management, or the ISM, and you can see manufacturing conditions or activity in America has been tanking as we've gone through 2019. This pessimism coming in as even though we have a, at the moment at least, partial trade deal, that in itself as being a weighing factor on global growth and the US included. That has fed through and is starting to impact what had been a fairly robust consumer, as confidence has been eroding. And therefore, all indicators and subsequently GDP— American growth, since where we were peaking in the recent cycle of the last few years in 2018, has been slowly drifting south. That being despite the, the GDP print beat that we had against expectations earlier today. So Manufacturing is slumping. We've had lower payrolls of late. Obviously, we get that on Friday. Retail sales have fallen sharply. So you're not short of reasoning to have this idea that that's the right course of action to be loosening policy again. Ongoing trade war with China. I mean, as I said, partial deal. We haven't— we've been here before when it sounded like we were making progress, only for it all to blow up. And then the whole thing kind of goes through this cycle. Never-ending of, of kind of positives and negatives. There's still Brexit risk, albeit maybe the goalposts being moved, kicked the can down the road once again for another 3 months. Slower global growth. And then also US inflation indicators have been decreasing. And so does it warrant then lower rates in order to try and rekindle, cultivate inflationary conditions to get inflation back to target? Now, one thing you are likely to hear today is you're likely to have at least 2, if not possibly 3, dissenters. Now what this means is if the Fed do cut, there might be 3 people who have the ability to vote that did not agree. The most likely is Esther George and Eric Rosengren. They're the outlying hawks of the FOMC. They're likely to say actually we shouldn't cut at all, we should hold rates. They've dissented before before, I'd expect them to dissent again. And then the other is the complete opposite end of the spectrum. If they're the hawks, James Bullard is the ultra-dove on, on the voting members, and he might want something a little bit more aggressive like a 50 basis point rather than 25 basis point cut. If any of this happens, dissenters, I don't expect any meaningful impact on market prices because it's all very much expected. This then is the the case for holding. We've kind of talked the book, if you like, of how markets have looked at this and are preparing very much for the third rate cut in this cycle, as I said. But is there a case for holding? There has been a partial trade deal. I mean, I've seen some of the headlines this afternoon talking about the US trying to realign expectations that actually it's going to take China a little bit of time to scale up to the $40-50 billion target of agricultural purchases, which, which formed a lot of the compromise on the Chinese side to get this, this trade deal partially underway. Um, but the fact that they have, is this not a net positive? And so in that sense, aren't we better to just hold things? Because at least for the moment, until those renewed tariffs coming in December, we have almost like a peace agreement. And so better off to maybe hold fire and not cut soon, maybe take the action in December instead. Brexit, as I mentioned, has been delayed, uh, almost inevitably to the end of January, so that immediate risk of a disorderly non-transitional Brexit has been removed. Stocks trade at record levels. If you remember, at the beginning of October, there's quite a few people out there who are trying to spread the doom and gloom, giving the idea that we're going to get a repeat of what we had of Q4 in 2018. Remember, we had the inversion briefly of the yield curve However, that hasn't materialized and equities have powered up to new record all-time highs just this week, whether it's earnings, but predominantly I'd say the combination of the success of the trade talks recently, but also the fact that that's coming in the backdrop of the Fed committing to cutting. And so therefore a lot of this has already been priced into markets. And then, um, do Germany— have they been making some kind of lukewarm warm signals that they might be willing to kind of move out of their traditional surplus stance and provide some fiscal support to assist the eurozone, as is what's being called for by Mario Draghi in recent press conferences. Now, what do the big banks think? Well, they're all going for a cut. I mean, let's be completely clear about that. One, I'll just go over Deutsche Bank and Nordia because I thought they were the most interesting. Deutsche looking for a 25 cut. They're saying that the focal point is the message that the Fed wants to send. Ultimately, the team believe that it's too early for the FOMC to communicate the end of the cutting cycle given where the risks lie. Nordia, they said when reassessing the 3 reasons the FOMC gave in July and September, so the last 2 meetings when they did cut, one, signs of deceleration in economic activity. Activity, 2, prudency from a risk management perspective, and 3, the inflation outlook, then they say that a rate cut is very much warranted. Now this is my kind of checklist then of how fundamentally I think you need to approach this event. So cut this up into 2 parts: the 6 PM initial release, the announcement and the statement, and then the second part being the press conference. So talking Talking about the first half, in chronological order, we are expecting a cut of 25 basis points, and I do believe that that is all but guaranteed going off market pricing. So I wouldn't be looking for any way in, in regard to a sharp reaction to that fact. It's already priced in. The Fed have never disappointed when pricing so high, so we can almost discount that part of the release, if you like. Most of the consensus though is based on this notion of a hawkish cut. So they're going to cut rates, but there's a potential here that if the Fed or Powell were to be explicit in hinting at the end of a mid-cycle adjustment, I would anticipate that yields in the dollar would see a fairly aggressive spike higher. Now by default then, that would put downside pressure in the major pairs if you're looking at EURUSD and cable and things of that nature. Probably put downside pressure on equity markets, um, and as well as, um, T-notes, because yields would move higher in that sense. Now, our base case though, because that's not what I'm expecting— the base case is I think the Fed, particularly Powell, he's way too savvy and slick at doing this nowadays. He's very experienced. I think the wording will allow for greater flexibility which will likely be reflected in a repeat of two important phrases to look out for from both the statement and the press conference. One is data dependency. I think that's the kind of get out, get out of jail free card if I'm a Fed member. You just say, well, we're going to be data dependent. So basically I'm saying I'm not going to give you too much about the future. I could hold, I could cut, it depends really on how incoming data materializes over the coming weeks until we get to December and beyond. The other part of this is in the main statement is the specific sentence of "acting as appropriate to sustain the expansion" phrase, and I do expect that to remain. Removal of that, it would be quite interesting in that sense, because obviously saying "acting as appropriate to sustain the expansion" is kind of the idea then that they're looking to continue cutting in order to prop up the economy. Removal of that could have the opposite effect. And then the dissenters, I think, will not be a market-moving factor within this. So very much focused on not the now but the future of what they're intonating that they're going to do. Now, part 2, 6:30 onwards, uh, perception of recent economic developments. So after he's issued his statement, it's very much going to be focused on What does he think about the recent string of data? So like I said, jobs data generally has been weakening. Inflation's been fairly benign. Retail sales has been pretty bad. However, GDP advance reading today for Q3 was pretty strong. The trade wars had a partial deal. What color does he add? What meat on the bones does he say? And how does that reflect then on his positivity or his pessimism about the global outlook? Powell, another key thing on the— particularly the press conference will be Powell likely to further stress how recent Fed activity in adjusting its balance sheet is not quantitative easing. Remember, we had that liquidity squeeze which created sharp movement in the money markets in the recent few weeks, which now means that the Fed are purchasing roughly $60 billion worth of T-bills on a regular basis. and a lot of people saying, is this quantitative easing or not? Uh, he's probably going to be questioned on this fact, but I think that he'll swerve that one. Uh, going to be an interesting issue, but potentially not something that will move the market. Uh, and then just as a general tip, with the press in attendance, the first questions are always the ones that carry the most firepower to potentially move markets. Very much a hierarchy of the press in the way the questions come. In summary then, before I hand you over to Sam, for a bit of a look at the charts from a technical point of view. We anticipate— when I say we, myself— I anticipate this event to be, in the end, when we look back on this in an hour and a half's time, I think it would be a relatively controlled reaction in markets. I'm not expecting wild spectacular fireworks here. Given market pricing, I would anticipate a larger reaction occurring in the low probability that the Fed mismanages their forward guidance, resulting in the overtly hawkish interpretation. So if they don't tread this very delicate balance between keeping options open about, okay, I feel like we're near the end of the cutting cycle, this mid-cycle adjustment, because 3 is reflective of what the Fed did back in the mid-'90s, uh, and markets love looking back at history in hindsight, If they go on to say that potentially that's it and it's definitive, I think that would see the biggest, most tradable way that the market might move and might offer the best opportunities. In that instance, we anticipate equities to come under quite significant selling pressure and yields in the dollar to spike quite aggressively. All right, that's it from me. I'm gonna swap with Sam, so I'll pick up the chat. There's commentary on the side if If you have any questions for me specifically, you got 10 minutes, fire away. We'll let Sam come on and talk about the charts and how he's going to tackle it from a trading point of view.

Hi guys, good evening. Hope we're all good. We'll have a quick look over the products that I would focus on today going forward. Let's bring in euro into the chart. Relatively range-bound if you're looking at it at the just over the course of today, the pivot level containing the downside, the upside from Friday's high and also Thursday's low. So that's your key level to the upside, 1.1159, give or take a few ticks either side on the futures. And a bit of— pretty much a line in the sand where we finish the day could be on, on that point. So if we were to go to the hawkish side, also got to be aware of this double bottom from yesterday, which makes triple one from the low of the 17th. And also if I drag that just above the camera, you can see the importance of this level trading around 1.1109. So just a bit above the 111 handle, another key level. If we were to go, uh, ultra dovish and the dollar was to weaken, again keeping a watch on this whole area. I call it a zone really around 112 and then just a bit below. So they would be the key levels horizontal-wise that I'd be keeping an eye on euro, especially where we finished the day. So if we were to get above here, you know, expecting a pretty dovish reaction across the board. Gold would be higher, T-notes higher, the S&P higher as well. Certainly later on I'll be keeping a watch after the initial spikes on what gold is doing, perhaps for that cue that the move could continue one way or it's time for a reversal. But these certainly in euro be the, the levels that I'll be marking up, keeping an eye on. If we just have a look maybe longer term at euro, just where we are currently trading, let me just bring in that longer term chart. Now you can see we have been pushing higher since the beginning of the month, so a decent month to be fair for the euro. That 1.12 handle will be keeping a watch on. I've seen a couple of shouts here, it's going to finish the day at 1.10. From Tarek. I mean, that would be a decent move if we were to get there. Could we get down there? I'd be surprised. Uh, quite a lot in the way, uh, for, for price to go to get to that point. But the way euro has moved this year, some of the best opportunities have come once these trend lines are broken. And while we haven't got necessarily the, the best trend line in place from those lows, that could absolutely be an opportunity should we see a bit of support continued here and get that breakthrough over the coming days, then yeah, 1.10 could be an option. And just to go over that sort of trade this year, you can see each time we push higher, the trend and the opportunity comes once that— once you get those breaks through. So that's how I'll be looking at euro. Certainly from the highs as well, worth having a trend line just above, uh, that other key point. So going from the high of the month to then the high of the 24 makes a really important resistance zone. I imagine there'll be some buying pressure coming in if we were to break that, and then obviously that next key level up towards the high that we had on the 24th. To the downside as well, just worth keeping on a couple of these trend— potential trend lines just from these lows, marking up with the low of the week. You can see we're almost getting squeezed in from, from either direction. Having a look now to the S&P all-time highs traded this week, and I just want to put this on to the longer-term chart just in case we get that dovish reaction. Don't get too aggressive around on futures 20 points above where we're trading. This incredible trend channel that we've got marked up here, you can see if that is to come into play. Well, the last 3 times this has come in, uh, we've had a strong push lower, so So it works two ways. Of course, if we close the day above there, could expect a decent move from here on out. But certainly just above where we're trading, and in the futures that looks like it's coming in around 3053. I'll be keeping a close watch on that as well. Just dropping it down 60 minutes today for the S&P, um, not a 960, a 60-minute one. You can see we had a bit of a spike on the, uh, from the algos when Chile got canceled. But not for a bad reason, just because of the unrest. So that November 17th meeting between Xi and Trump still looking like it's going to go ahead. That spikes us down to the low of the week, which you can see we just— of where we gapped higher. So that's another point that you're going to have marked up as well. You can see now that, uh, trend line coming in around the R2 for the day. For us to get through there, highs of today, highs of the week have all got to go as well. And likewise with the euro, worth just having a trend from those highs as well, um, for any potential bigger moves and just profit targets to keep an eye on. And look at this, where did we spike down today to? Well, 1, 2, 3, a trend line now that the whole market is looking at. Definitely something I'll be looking to have on. Also, the low post the spike is the low of yesterday, which was then the high of Monday. Some really key levels now marked up on the S&P. Uh, if we were to break that trend line, I don't really see why we can't go back down to test 30.15 today, and that would be that hawkish cut that we're potentially on about here. You can see the importance of that level, uh, to, to be aware of. Uh, quick look at gold. We got 5 minutes until that announcement, so obviously prepare it as you would. Gold struggling to get above yesterday's high. A couple of times we tried to get there on the 60-minute, we just can't quite close above. So that would be important key line in the sand. Where did we, uh, have a bit of breakdown area on Monday? Oh, the all-important 1500 handle. So that's another area I'd have marked up on the chart. From the lows, and putting this now to a 15-minute chart with this trend line, you can see we have been just gradually grinding higher today. And look how well respected that trend is. So if we were to have that hawkish rise, therefore S&P breaking its trend line. Well, why can't gold do the same? Yeah, is what I'd be thinking here. And well, when this comes out, what's been a savior, shall we say, over the last few Fed meetings is for, for gold is just waiting for that 5-minute close above a level. So let's just say this trend line does break and you get the 5-minute close, then fine, it then acts as a resistance. But don't be too aggressive in trying to sell straight away. Of course, without actually knowing what's going on. But that 5-minute close can, uh, can be helpful just after the initial algo spike as well. Above here, 1500, if we get to it, you've got to be looking at the lows that we had on the 25th. Broke down there on Monday with a decent push to the downside. That coming in on futures around 1503 as well. With the, the lows of the, the most recent couple of weeks, worth having a trend line on as well just to to see if we can find some support there. Breaks of that, and then why can't we then be looking down towards 1478? So some interesting levels to be aware of for those markets. Um, and any questions obviously throughout the announcement, please, uh, you know, pop them in the chat. But those will be the, the main ones that I focus on. Would I be looking at the pound? Not really to trade here. As we know, Brexit is going to be the main driver, and last couple of announcements it's hardly moved and pretty much finished exactly where it, uh, where it started. NASDAQ, Dow, and S&P look pretty much bang on identical. Obviously got some earnings out later as well, so in terms of holding positions for, you know, a longer time, just be, uh, be careful on that as well. Got about 2 minutes until, until the release, so let me know if there's any questions. I'm just going to get up the chat. Yeah, Mark, they're just saying looking for that correlation with T-notes to trade gold. Absolutely. So, you know, on a chart perspective, euro, gold, T-notes, all going to move in that same direction if it's, uh, you know, clear monetary policy move. And I mean, look at his— look at the high on T-notes, pretty much the bang on the high of the 27th as well, pretty much where I'll be focusing on as a line in the sand to the upside, because you've also got the lows from the middle part of the month. Now it's resistance, uh, pretty key level to, to have on the charts there, as is the previous high of the day, which is the high of yesterday, uh, as well. Just over a minute, I'll pass you back to, to— and I'll be in the chat So any questions, please do let me know.

Okay, got about a minute to go. I'll leave the squawk on now. They'll do the countdown and they'll say the release live as it comes out. So you've got about 45 seconds. Okay, just having some, uh, issues with my squawk, so I'll try and call it as I see it. They've lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, so the new range 1.5% to 1.75%. Just looking out for the additional comments. Again, my squawk down at the moment, so I'm just doing this on the fly. Statement— I'll see if I can access it now and we'll go over. Rising at moderate rate. Business fiscal investment and exports remain weak. Those guidance are unchanged. Repeat, job gains have been solid, unemployment has remained low, household spending has been rising at a strong pace. Inflation still running below 2%. So the main change to the statement here is that wording on appropriateness, as it will assess incoming information as it assesses the appropriate path of federal funds rate. That is a change, of course, from its previous view that it will continue to monitor implications of incoming information for the outlook, which many had assumed keep the door open to future rate cuts. Just an immediate reaction over here. We are seeing downside for the T-note future. Yeah, just switching my screens for a moment. This is a picture of the actual statement and the actual changes so you can map it from what's just happened to the previous one. You see, you can see here they scratched out some commentary on the outlook. So as the committee before, they said contemplates the future path of the target range for federal funds rate. They're now just saying the committee to continue monitoring implications, incoming information for the economic outlook. And they have dropped, will act as it assesses the appropriate. So that removal, remember when we're looking in the preview to sustain the expansion with a strong labor market, inflation near its symmetric 2% objective. They've scrapped that comment. So probably that explains a little bit of that initial knee-jerk move that we had. Gold did pop down, T-notes lower, dollar initially popped. I'd imagine it was the removal of that latter phrase there that really caused that initial reaction. Uh, otherwise though, everything else remains relatively unchanged. In that respect. And one thing that they did say, because that removal of that sustaining the expansion would be more hawkish as per some initial move that we've seen, but here at the top they said fixed business, fixed investment, exports remain weak instead of have weakened. That in itself would be just a touch dovish perhaps. Dissenters, I think absolutely Not surprising at all. Esther George and Rosengren dissenting, as would be the case. Bullard not going 50, but just going with the rest. Only 2 dissenters. Not much change.

We did see a bit of two-way flows in equities, but the ES at 3030, where we were pretty much before the Fed rate decision, the T-note future now has pared back to around the 129.13 plus. That's down about 2 ticks from before the decision.

Quick look at that dollar index. That's trading at the 97.758 region, slightly higher than the 97.709 before the Fed's decision. Okay, so just having a look at initial assessment here, uh, other than that first initial move It's pretty, pretty contained in the reaction. We're pretty much back to exactly where we were. So they removed the 'will act as appropriate,' replaced with more data-dependent 'will monitor implications of incoming information for economic outlook as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for Fed funds rates.' So I mean, this is what I mean by the, by the, the way of which The Fed are very good at basically keeping all of their options open. I mean, that last phrase in itself is basically not committing in either direction, keeping all options and maximum flexibility on the table. So I think perhaps maybe a couple of more binary algo systems getting caught perhaps on the removal of that initial phrasing, uh, on will act as appropriate, which as we said before would be a hawkish sign. But this whole data dependency thing means that in reality, um, it doesn't mean the end of the mid-cycle adjustment, and it doesn't mean more rate cuts to come in future. So net-net, we kind of remain where we were. Clarity of course will come. Jerome Powell is going to issue the press conference, got about 25 minutes until that starts. Not entirely sure what happened with the squawk there on the initial release, but I guess from a new trader's point of view, one thing I can say is that, look, when you're preparing for trading events, technology can fail, and all you've got to do is try and remain composed. But if you're a global macro trader and your squawk goes down, I realistically you are a bit blind and probably the most prudent course of action then is to stay out of the initial action because without that visibility it becomes quite difficult to be able to interpret things because obviously you rely on the 15-man analyst team that we have to identify the main headlines that are coming out and relay them to you. So yeah, in this situation, I mean, the actual event here in part 1 has been fairly tame That doesn't mean that the second half will. I guess the action now comes to what further transparency, if any, does Powell provide when the press conference gets going in 25 minutes?

Yeah, so just having a quick look over the reaction, you know, pretty contained all round. Uh, that euro, the pivot holding things up. And I would just say, now we know, um, that there's going to be no further comments until 6:30, I wouldn't be looking to get in without a 5-minute close above or below a level. So in this case, with that low of the day on the euro, I wouldn't be looking to go short unless we've closed below it. 5-minute retesting and get in targeting some of those areas from, uh, yesterday. And for gold, similar with its pivot, previous high of the Asian session, uh, holding on the first test. I'm not going to be looking to get too involved unless we 5-minute close below it. And you can see here, if we just put that, that on pretty much a pretty key reversal. I'll be keeping actually a watch on this, this level. Certainly technically, um, what was an area of support, you can see just been tested now as resistance on gold, 1495.4. I don't think that's the worst place in the world for a bit of resistance to, to hold. Let's have a quick look over at the S&P, undecided what it wants to do. Put that on a 5-minute, you can see pretty much back to exactly where it was and relatively choppy. So again, I'll be looking here at those levels from the low of the day, and unless we were to close below there, I'm not too interested. Uh, putting it on a trend line from the recent high to the actual high of the day where you've got a nice free test, unless we close above there and, and and close, then I'm not interested in, in getting in for now. We've got 20 minutes, 20 minutes until the press conference where some opportunities could come. When it's a limited reaction, just want confirmed breaks before looking to get in on any sort of momentum move. Jad, hope you're well. Long time. Yeah, pivot in both euro and gold holding well. Similar level to gold now being tested in that euro, just the previous support level breaking through. So good, good profit target for Alex in the chat. You see there, he's gone long, target in that area, makes sense. Just having a quick look over that gold. You can see from, from that level, it's purely technically here, you know, moving down 14 ticks. It's just a, you know, line in the sand coming up, retest support support, support acts as resistance, and, and people will be looking to take some out. You've got to imagine around here previously in the day, good area of support. Why can't it happen again? And then the second target, if you are short gold, why not go for the, the FMC low, $1,491 on futures, holding quite nicely. Stocks here just coming up. So now we could look, you got a nice little trend line. Can we get a close above? If gold keeps going lower, you're going to be happier to, you know, see this push on as well. Just keeping a watch. 1, 2, 3 tests coming up for the, the fourth now. So yeah, let's just get gold and the S&P next to each other. As the S&P confirms a push above there, you've got to imagine gold's going to be near that low. So at the moment, just playing. There you go, gold. So that would be— if you were short gold in that retest, nice place to take, I would say, portion of that trade off. Euro did exactly the same, a bit, bit of a delay, just couldn't get above its previous support level. So yeah, Paul, you know, here on the S&P, just looking at that trend line, and I'm not gonna— I wouldn't be looking to get long unless we get a break above that. You know, the dollar's just starting to firm again though. It might just hold that back.

I'm just gonna press play for a second.

Yeah, so just having a look back, it's calm. It's calm ahead of the press conference coming up.

Sorry, is that microphone like it was before?

Yeah, no, it's back on now. So S&P just coming up to that trend line, technically above there you could expect a bit of a push, especially a 5-minute close. Keeping a watch on, on that. Gold finding resistance on that 1495.4, targeting the pivot. Euro just playing copycat at the moment. We've been mapping 15 minutes I'm going to be expecting too much in the way of big moves. Let me know if you— yeah, you can hear here now.

Yeah.

Hi Kathy, hope you're well. So here you can see S&P just trying to get above that trend.

Let's have a look.

There you go.

T-notes getting above that trend. Now let's just see if we can close above it. There you go, trying to extend. Just have a look how we close 5 minutes. I wouldn't be getting too aggressive here, just wait for a bit of confirmation just due to the fact that it hasn't been the most volatile release. But there you're just getting that push. Now we've got— all right, and that 5 minutes still still got a bit of time to go. I'll be patient on this, to be honest. I know it's frustrating to see it spike straight through. Let's have a look. Imagine gold is going to get down to that pivot. So gold just coming back down to an area which was nice support all throughout today. You can see here as well, see how it finds. Yeah, the res, that's, that's what I'd be looking at. I'd just say, you know, you've got the press conference in 14 minutes. Um, I just wouldn't fancy getting too aggressive on these moves. I mean, we've gone through what, only like 2 2 points, 8 ticks. I don't think it's enough to, to want to chase it through.

Yeah, okay, we got about 15 minutes or so until the press conference. I was just having a good conversation with one of the guys here. Because look, I mean, if you're new to markets, this is all, you know, learning to interpret these types of events is very much about preparation, watching, and then reviewing, and then discussing with other people as well about what happened, why did it happen, and so on. You definitely cannot learn to trade a monetary policy event overnight. This is something developed over years in that respect. The conversation we were just having here is about this idea of the changing of that language, specifically on this idea of getting rid of the phrase about continuing to do what's necessary for the expansion of the economy, but kind of referencing that towards more now data dependency. So if anything, remember, the market was in this mindset of a hawkish hold or hawkish cuts. Sorry. And to me, as a function of how the market is priced, it's almost like this is a, a neutral cut. And so by default, perhaps then for the equity investors, a little bit of relief almost that that hasn't transpired. And equities, obviously there's that trend line in the S&P on the 5-minute on the right-hand side that Sam's just marked up. A break of that just opening up and a previous break on the earlier test that we had about half an hour ago, a run-up to the pivot level in the futures initially. The press conference coming up. What do I think about the press conference? I actually think Jerome Powell's not really going to make any mistakes. Uh, so all things remaining equal, I think then if the market really captures hold of that same sentiment I've been describing, that actually the markets got away with being hit with a hawkish tone from the Fed, and in fact they're fairly even-handed, then perhaps then, you know, equities, it could be supportive under that basis. As far as the December rate hike is concerned, well, really I don't think there's much need for that to be priced in. Um, probably what will happen now is that over the course of November with incoming data, it just means the economic data that comes out from the US will be way more important than normal because people will have to use that as the barometer of whether or not the Fed are going to act. So that's the kind of downfall of this strategy from Powell and the Fed, is that although this manages releases like this What it does, though, is it heightens now the impact of the weighted importance of economic data. So now things like Non-Farm on Friday, the other figures that we'll get in November, retail sales, the second reading of GDP, these all take on renewed importance because now if the Fed is saying they're data dependent, well, we need to base our decisions on what they're going to do in December on the back of that. If that makes sense. Okay, any questions? I got a bit of downtime, do let me know just while we've got some downtime. Myself and Sam do tweet during the day, so what you can see here is my Twitter account. A couple of things I can show you. One is on a Sunday, could be quite useful for any of you who are actively trading, or even if you're swing trading or holding medium-term positions. Every Sunday, effectively, I put together an economic calendar, but this isn't like an economic calendar that you get on a normal retail website, because what I do is I go through several different calendars and I comprise everything into a one-stop shop. So here you've got data, you've got geopolitical events, you've got parliamentary UK proceedings, you've got corporate earnings coming out of America and the UK and Europe. So the likes of Apple, Facebook, of course, coming out in a few hours' time. And so this is quite a good thing. For you to plan accordingly for the week ahead. Otherwise, elsewhere, obviously I share things about my updates and about Brexit, for example, and then just other interesting things that I see day to day that could be of use for you guys. Sam looks at the market. Sam's one of our senior traders, and he obviously looks at the market, as you can probably tell, from a much more technical perspective. You can follow him on Twitter here. @snorth19. You can see here Sam met his idol Jack Schwager, the author of Market Wizards. I'm sure if any of you guys trade, you've, you've very much heard of this chap Jack. He came down to the Amplify office actually a few weeks ago, had a chat with some of the guys and interview with our head of trading, Piers. But yeah, he does tweet lots of good charts about cross-asset different setups, much more from a technical perspective. So it could be useful for any of you guys who trade more or look at the markets more from that perspective. Otherwise, the other Twitter account of course that could be quite useful for you is Amplify Trading, our main corporate account. I'm on here every morning on my way into work basically I share the main market-moving stories of the day. So rather than having to trawl through, say, Bloomberg, Reuters, and everything else in between, all you've got to do is just follow Amplified Trading and we'll be sharing all of the main articles of the day. Usually there's only about 4 or 5 that really are important from that perspective. If you're currently on our YouTube channel, so on the YouTube channel we do publish a variety of different different things. And so we have morning briefings which Sam and I deliver to our traders every morning, but it gets recorded and then uploaded onto our YouTube channel for free later on, usually around 9 AM London time. So if it's categorized here, morning briefing. So for example, this is the one on Monday, and obviously feel free to leave any comments. Sam and I are absolutely more than happy to respond to any questions people have on any of our videos. So that here as well, another good thing that might be— if you haven't already checked it out, we do a Trader Insights series. So we've been over the course of the last few weeks just interviewing some of our traders. There was a really good one we did just 2 weeks ago from Piers, who's our head of trading, just talking about lessons learned from losses. And obviously for those who do trade, psychology is so pivotal that that's a really fascinating 20-minute video there from him. And then Ben Marsh was a chap that trained with us several years ago, and he's still having great success in the market. There's a really good interview there as well if you're interested in, in having a look. So yeah, do just remind you, do subscribe to the the channel and then hit the bell icon if you want to be notified every time that we issue that morning briefing on a daily basis or whenever we go live. Just so you're aware ahead of time, we will be going live for the non-farm payrolls on Friday, so we'll be live on this YouTube channel. All right, getting a few shouts about gold, so let's have a look. Just having a little push down to fresh lows, so the pivot level just being tested. Just having a look that Sam had a couple of levels marked up before. So, uh, target on a downside here if we did remain heavy— well, we've got that low point. If I get my ellipse here from the overnight Asia-Pac session on the 30th, but then we've got the low that we had on the morning when Europe came in today, and that coinciding with the low points that that was seen in the beginning of the Asia session. So a quick test there at 1490 before a bit of a bounce, but any retest on downside levels beyond 90, we'd just be keeping an eye on 89 spot too as well, which would coincide with those previous technical lows. Just a reminder, press conference with Powell is going to kick off in 3 and a half minutes. Yeah, any questions while we're waiting? I can see the chat, so feel free to ask anything about what's going on at the moment, what's just happened, or anything about Amplify, what we trade. Just to give you an idea, for any of those who have never joined us before, we are global macro traders, so we trade cross-asset class futures, so looking at fixed income, FX, equity, and commodities. Obviously, it's been a tremendously good environment for us given the fact that politics, geopolitics is such a definitive driver of markets today and has been really since the last couple of years since the referendum and our ability to kind of assess those types of events and its direction it can have on markets is very core to how we look at things. For us to consider removing Brexit parties and skip Yeah, just on the, the subject of Brexit, just quite an interesting article the FT just released 20 minutes ago. And obviously now we go into the kind of campaigning phase ahead of that mid-December election, and something here is that The FT reporting that Nigel Farage— the Brexit Party considers pulling out of hundreds of seats to boost Tories. Now that, that in itself would definitely be a positive for the pound because it would increase the prospects of Boris Johnson capturing, uh, majority government. One of his biggest risks would be that of a splintered vote where he loses quite a few to Nigel Farage's Brexit Party. And actually, it would be a dual positive because Farage in this article is saying that he may focus his attentions on 20 to 30 Leave-supporting Labour constituencies. So he's kind of boosting Johnson's prospects whilst killing Corbyn's prospects by targeting the Leave Labour areas. And the Leave Labour areas, obviously real targets because they did vote quite heavily to leave in many areas by a substantial margin, predominantly those based in the north, for example. And so therefore, this would be hypothetically— although I think it's unsurprising, I never really— I would— I very much believe Farage definitely does not fancy being Prime Minister. Because he will quickly find that all of his barking and saying all these amazing things that he would do when you're Prime Minister, unfortunately it doesn't work like that in reality.

Same with Corbyn.

So yep, you could say the same with Corbyn. Radical social reforms not seen since the mid-1970s. Those of you who know your UK politics, the 1970s in British politics was an absolute disastrous period where nothing happened at all and the economy collapsed. So again, it's easy to talk a big game when you're opposition, not so easy when you're governing. So I think Farage has got what he wants. My view is he secured his parliamentary, uh, pocket with his Brexit Party in the European elections a few months ago. For him, it's job done. Now it's about, well, let's just get it aligned to get Boris over the line. Brexit delivered probably isn't fitting. And I'm sure behind closed doors, he would have cut some kind of deal, some shape or form to make that political allegiance work. So, yeah, be interesting actually later tomorrow to see how the markets react to this. I'd see this as a kind of loose sterling positive in that sense, in the wake of what I feel is a neutral cut from the Fed, which if anything means that the dollar really hasn't had much of a sustained reaction as to what's happened because that hawkish cut didn't materialize to the extent that maybe people might have expected. Okay, Powell is live, so let's listen to what he's got to say.

And manufacturing output has declined over the past year. Sluggish growth abroad and trade developments have been weighing on those sectors. Looking ahead, we continue to expect the economy to expand at a moderate rate, reflecting solid household spending and supportive financial conditions. Financial conditions. The job market remains strong. The unemployment rate has been near half-century lows for a year and a half. The pace of job gains has eased this year but has remained solid. We had expected some slowing after last year's strong pace. Participation in the labor force by people in their prime working years has been increasing— —and wages have been rising, particularly for lower-paying jobs. —people who live and work in low- and middle-income communities tell us that many who have struggled to find work are now getting opportunities to add new and better chapters to their lives. This underscores for us the importance of sustaining the expansion so that the strong job market reaches more of those.

Just while he's talking, gold has just had another flirt with that low on that AsiaPAC, that kind of double bottom that was holding the price action. In the first part of the Asia-Pacific session and the retest, retest at the European Open. It's been quite volatile, had that initial test and then a pop back to pivot, but another little push down. If we did get beneath there, then it does open up the potential for a more aggressive move to the downside. So worth just keeping an eye on as the press conference is underway.

Could lead to an unwelcome downward slide in long-term inflation expectations. However, against the backdrop of a strong economy and supportive monetary policy, we expect inflation will rise to 2%. Overall, we continue to see sustained expansion of economic activity, a strong labor market, and inflation near our symmetric 2% objective as most likely. While this has been our outlook for quite some time, our views about the path of interest rates that will best achieve these outcomes have changed significantly over the past year. As I mentioned, weakness in global growth and trade developments have weighed on the economy and pose ongoing risks. Ongoing risks. These factors, in conjunction with muted inflation pressures, have led us to lower our assessment of the appropriate level of the federal funds rate over the past year. In both July and September, we reduced the target rate for the federal funds rate by ¼ percentage point and we did so again today, bringing the range to 1½ to 1¾%. The policy adjustments we've made to date will continue to provide significant support for the economy. Since monetary policy operates with a lag, the full effects of these adjustments on economic growth, the job market, and inflation will be realized over time. We see the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate. as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our—

Yeah, so gold did break through, and you can see there the kind of pent-up almost frustration in those orders. Another leg down, so that, as I said, opens up the target of the 2 days ago low that we had in the US session in the afternoon on the 29th, so back on yesterday. T-notes likely to go to—

other information bearing on the outlook. As we assess the—

just looking at the way the market's reacting initially here as the press conference is underway. So a little bit more of a kind of hawkish reaction. So he's sounding a little bit more hawkish, and that's reflecting in asset prices. He did say, just to repeat, the current stance of policy likely to remain appropriate. So yields are rising, gold's come down to test at that level now, and the pivot just under a bit of pressure. Equities also little downside, and the dollar is restrengthening a touch. So this would be reflective of a hawkish initial interpretation to what he's saying. Again, the key comment: current stance of policy likely to remain appropriate.

In response to the funding pressures in money markets that emerged in mid-September, We concluded that it would be appropriate to maintain over a— over time a level of reserve balances at or above the level that prevailed in early September of this year. To achieve this ample level, we announced on October 11 that we would purchase Treasury bills at least into the second quarter of next year, as well as continue temporary open market operations at least through January. These actions are purely technical measures to support the effective implementation of monetary policy.

Yeah, so from a technical standpoint now, he's starting to get some decent movement. The euro just extending on the break through the earlier midday low that we had in the session. Now gold snapping through, so much more further carry through. Another leg lower in the— in EURUSD there, just saw a fairly aggressive move. Uh, we got the trend line coming in of course here that Sam had marked up prior to the event, so just keep an eye. Now you can see here, this is the EURUSD chart. I'm looking looking at. You've got that low on the 15th, you've got the test that we had, uh, to— or yesterday, and then just where we are at the moment, which was also coinciding with the S1. That would be a strong level of support, I would imagine. So yeah, initiated by that comment that we were covering, uh, and that the correlation is kind of reflecting some of that move. Equity is probably a little less convinced actually for the moment, uh, much more ever in gold, but that and euro, but predominantly because of the technical breaches on those levels we were just looking at. The fundamentals, that comment being the catalyst, the break on the technicals then just adding momentum on some of the moves.

Deterioration in what? So what we've said—

so he's taking questions now from the audience—

the current stance of policy is likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains remains broadly consistent with our outlook. And we say that really because both of the performance of the economy and the stance of policy. The performance of the economy has been— particularly the household sector has been strong, has been resilient, with low unemployment, attractive levels of job creation, wages moving up, labor force participation moving up, household confidence, solid gains in many measures of consumer spending. The manufacturing sector, particularly manufacturing and also investment in exports, have been weaker, but overall we've seen moderate growth, a strong labor market, inflation moving up. We see the outlook as for more of the same. We also see the risks to the outlook as perhaps having moved in a positive direction over the course of this intervening period, although some remains— some things remain to be seen. So that's the economy. Turning to policy, we've moved the stance of policy over the course of the year to a more accommodative stance. And after cuts at the last 3 meetings, the federal funds rate is now in a range between 1.5 and 1.75%. We feel that policy is well positioned to support the outlook that I described. So you asked what it would take, you know, to move, and as I mentioned, we're going to be— watching all factors. And if developments emerge that cause a material reassessment of our outlook, we would respond accordingly. But that's what it would take—a material reassessment of our outlook.

If I could follow up, if the markets decide that you need to cut rates again, would you be forced to cut rates?

We'll be looking at a full range of data about the economy and about the risks to the outlook. And I've given you a sense of what our outlook is. It's for moderate growth. A strong labor market, and inflation near our 2% objective. If something happens to cause us to materially reassess that outlook, that's what would cause us to change our views on the appropriate stance of policy. Heather?

Hi, Heather Long from the Washington Post. You just said that the risks to the outlook are moving in a in a positive direction. I'm wondering if you could specify— is that on trade? Are there other matters? This morning, we obviously learned that we've now had 2 quarters of contracting business investment, which would seem to be moving the outlook in the other direction.

So in terms of risks, what I was referring to there— the principal risks that we've been monitoring have been really slowing global growth, and trade policy developments, as well as muted inflation pressure. So I was really referring there to trade developments. We have that Phase 1 potential agreement with China, which, if signed and put into effect, could have the effect of reducing trade tensions and reducing uncertainty, and that would bode well, we think, for business confidence and perhaps activity over time. So that has the potential for being an improvement in the risk picture. Brexit, I would say as well, it appears that the risk of a—

Okay, just keeping an eye on the euro again. I've had that chart up on my screen, but we've just broken that key level now. So now we've gone through that trend line that we were looking at over the last 2 weeks, be looking at a pushdown potentially for a retest down at the low print from yesterday late morning, that being also quite a key level. You can see on the chart here going back to the 16th, you've got the previous high, then the low on the test on the 17th, 25th, and 29th. So downside target on the break of the S1 and the trend line, it could be a key area in the futures. We're looking here at the euro, 1.1109 at the moment. Just having a look at other assets as well. Gold obviously had remained heavy as we were looking at before. Just having a look, slightly longer time frame, what would be the key levels next on the downside? The bigger prevailing low, of course, downside targets. You've got the They're low on the 11th, but got to tackle a few areas first really around the lows seen on the 15th, 16th to get down to that point. That probably quite a decent level, October 2nd, as well as the 15th and 16th are holding up. So on the downside, if that S1 does remain broken, then I'll be looking around that 80 spot 9 in the futures. You kind of got through a collection of 3 key downside levels there. If looking at the initial fast money move as potential targets on the short, you've got 80 spot 9, 79 spot 4 on the S2, and then 78, 1478 on the downside being the overall low of the month of October. Whether that can happen, would want to really see a more correlated move. The euro has backed off that initial push that it was having on the downside. So without that breaking and really remaining heavy, without T-notes under pressure, then I've got lesser belief from the way the correlation mix is kind of setting up that gold is really going to push down to that point. So I would want to see more of a kind of cross-asset move to just generate some of that momentum. And kind of looked like you had your shot there with euro breaking, but it hasn't continued. And so therefore, the moment, gold not looking like it wants to push any lower for the moment at least. But we'll continue to listen in on the press conference. Remember, at the press conference he really said the big one already, which caused these moves initially that have happened in the more hawkish reaction on that specific phrase that the current stance of policy likely to remain appropriate. That obviously just discounting then the notion of any necessity for further cuts. He did though say that they would respond if outlook materially changes, so trying to keep that option, but the market obviously hit it on that first comment. But again, as I said, without further follow-through here, looks like the market's not biting any further after that initial hawkish move. Risk and inflation expectations Yeah, Edward, I would agree with you. I think, um, just given the general nature of how the press conference tends to go, I would say you're probably right. They're probably— that's it now, they've said what they needed to say. So let me just quickly bring into shot this. I know it's a bit small. Let me see if I can blow it up first and then I can show you. Give me one moment. I'll put the press conference on.

What we're really thinking now is that our current stance of policy is appropriate and will remain so as long as the outlook is broadly in keeping with our expectations. Mr.

Chairman, I'm—

not to make light of it, but I'm a little bit—

I don't know if you can help me out with the appropriate understanding of the word appropriate here.

So the statement says that the committee is going to monitor the implications of incoming information for the outlook as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range. That tells me you could go either way.

You came in and you used the word appropriate, that the current rate is likely to remain appropriate, which means you're on hold.

Okay, great question. Just coming up. So Listen out for the response. Leaving.

What appropriate means? Are you on hold and need to be proved wrong that you should remain on hold, or is it really you could go either way? Thank you. So we think that the current stance of policy is likely to remain appropriate, likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy is broadly consistent with our outlook, which is a positive one of moderate economic growth, strong labor market, and inflation moving closer.

Yeah, so if you missed that, that was Steve Leisman from CNBC. He's one of the main kind of US anchors, and he made a good point in his question. He's basically said, well, in the statement, Powell, you're basically saying— and I'll show you in the first half— you're basically saying you'll act as appropriate and replacing with more data-dependent, will monitor implications, incoming information. So that's pretty neutral, if anything. But then you come out and you then you start your press conference and and you say, well, the current stance is actually likely to remain appropriate, which is explicitly saying then you've done all that's needed. Um, but Powell just responding here and pretty much just reiterating the point that it's likely, all things remaining equal, to remain appropriate. However, they will respond. So it's like a typical kind of central banker response. But, uh, that kind of really summarizes, I think, what's happened here in terms of the tradable parts of this event. You had the initial almost hawkish reaction, uh, on the fact that they removed— well, let me just go back to this. This is the statement here ZeroHedge have posted. They removed that appropriate to sustain the expansion comment. Now the removal of that, you would anticipate, would be hawkish because of the idea then that you're saying we don't need to do more rate cuts to, to support the economy. So if you remember, the first move at 6 PM was initial dip in reaction in regard to equities, uh, to T-notes, to gold. We then reversed because then it became a little bit more clear that they were going to monitor implications of incoming information and so on. It's a little bit more neutral Then he came out and he's hit it with this whole current policy stance likely to remain appropriate, and that's what created that second phase. But just like Ed was saying, I do think that that's pretty much it. I think he's kind of conveyed what he needs to. I don't expect too much more now from this announcement, so I'm sure more to chew over later on tonight, uh, and then see how the market interprets it when we come back in tomorrow and people have had time to digest what's happened. But overall, I think, uh, my opinion, pretty well managed as per usual from the Fed. Nothing really too shocking in that nature, and they've kept all options on the table, which is probably the main objective that they wanted to achieve without destabilizing markets too much. And if that was the target, they've pretty much hit it bullseye with the way the market's reacted so far. Edward Lawrence with Fox Business. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, for taking this. So how big of a change then to monetary policy would there be if you get some of that uncertainty cleared up, specifically specifically the Phase 1 China trade deal finished and USMCA ratified, how big of a change could that be to— Okay, just given what I just said, we're actually going to look to start wrapping things up. So before I finish, obviously I hope you found the session useful. As I said, trying to trade these times of macro news-driven events for me is all, all in the preparation, because then what you're trying to do is just basically work things out ahead of time so there's a lesser need to be responsive and be caught off guard or make any type of irrational decisions. Everything is really just execution of a game plan. The other kind of key point as well when it comes to trading these types of events, I think, is, um, it's almost what can be if you're a new trader, you get sucked in, drawn into the idea of, you know, it's a big event. Markets normally can be fairly quiet leading up to the main event, and therefore you almost feel compelled to trade it, which can be quite a challenge to restrain yourself because more often than not, um, the Fed do a good job and they manage things relatively well. I would say in this case there has been some opportunity to trade as per the kind of review we just did. And actually saying that, I'm just keeping an eye on the equity market here, just start to see a bit of an uptick. Keep an eye on the S&P, just coming back to retest the initial high and the pivot level. So a bit of a reversal, but yeah, Moving on, other things. Just having a quick look, um, for those who are unfamiliar with Amplify, I gave you a brief introduction earlier, but a few things just wanted to cover off. If you do go on our website, AmplifyTrading.com, you'll be presented with two options. One is if you're looking to learn more about trading financial markets. The other would be more explicitly for students, whether undergrad or master's students. So I'm gonna go with the trading program that we have. We have a, a career trader program which lasts for 9 weeks, which is based here in London. So as you can see from some of the shots here, so if you navigate to that part of the website, you can find more information. We only have one more 9-week program happening in London where some of the two main features here is is that not only obviously you're receiving training like what we're doing in this session for 9 weeks straight, you'll get to trade a live funded account in the latter part of the program, which obviously is a unique offering, but we definitely want to see how people react when they're trading live capital for us to be able to mentor and help them appropriately. And then also we are going to be going through a structured learning process, which means that all of our, our traders will have earned a Level 6 diploma in trading financial market analysis because we get people learn with us that not only looking to trade but also looking to further their careers and so on and so forth. The other thing that we have coming up as we transition into 2020 is we do have— so these are the main courses that we have at the bottom, but we've got an online e-learning portal which we're going to be releasing starting in a few weeks' time. So if you are interested in that, then I've put the link into the chat room. You just need to register your details here and you'll be kept informed as soon as that goes live. But that's going to enable you to learn directly from people like me or the head of trading, Piers, about a variety of different subjects. So do feel free to input your details on that, on that page. and we'll keep you updated as soon as that goes live, which will be in a few weeks' time. Okay. That is it though. Gonna wrap up the session there, unless I'll take— I'll turn off the feed in 7 minutes at 7 PM London. So what I'll do is take this opportunity to answer any questions that anyone has in the chat room. So Anton, Tim, Pratek, Tom, any questions, let me know. Tim, good to see you online. Congratulations on the marathon. You and Will survived. Not sure who dragged who over the line. I'm not going to pass any judgment because running a marathon is no small feat. Any other questions? What we'll do is obviously the market's going to have plenty of opportunity to really digest this. And so tomorrow morning when we deliver the morning briefing, might be a good opportunity for you to get the full kind of review what happened, what, you know, One of the key things here, if you're trading certainly from a more medium-term point of view and/or holding positions for a slightly longer timeframe, would be, you know, what, what do people in the market say about this? I mean, it's all well and good having your opinion, particularly someone in my position, but how do I form my opinions? Well, I form them by just understanding and reading what other people think, and then I kind of take out of that my own understanding and apply my own view, but at the core it's based on what, what big banks think, what hedge fund managers think, what other traders think. It's all about understanding what is the herd, you know, view on these subjects, because ultimately you want to be following the trends that are developing in the market. So yeah, hopefully by tomorrow morning we'll have access to a lot more bank research, other opinions, and then we can form our own view, which we can discuss and explain tomorrow morning. Andre, thank you very much for joining us. Roland, always pleasure. Hopefully I'll see you again if you come back to London at any point in the future. Is Forex Live a good source? Where do you get your big bank views? Yeah, big bank views are quite hard to come by in all honesty, because in reality the way that regulation has gone through things like MiFID II, you might have heard of. Basically, you need to pay quite a large sum of money in order to access bank research directly. But what you can do is go on to something like Zero Hedge, for example, the blog site. Although somewhat sensationalist sometimes in their view, I would say that you can and they often share bank snippets of their research, so opinions on trade war or Brexit or more finite detail about markets and so on. Julius, does this mean that there'll be higher volatility during NFP? Actually, to a certain extent, yes. I still don't think Northbound Perils is the kind of B be all and end all, anything near that extreme. But what I would say, um, is that as the Fed have said, if they're being data dependent, well then absolutely I would say I see non-farm payrolls being quite key. But do bear in mind, with economic data, non-farm payrolls needs to be, for me, particularly weak. And that is a combination of two things. One, the headline change Nonfarm payrolls needs to be particularly low. When I mean low, I mean like sub-50,000. And also the average hourly earnings also needs to be low. If you get a combination of that, well, then that will kind of drive the idea that perhaps then the Fed have got to go again with a rate cut. They can't afford to be appropriate in where it is at the moment with rates, and therefore that could be a supportive factor for equities that could weaken the dollar, elevate gold in the reaction. A couple more minutes. So anything else? Obviously a bit of background noise, a lot of the guys here just wrapping it up now that they've concluded the main part of the event. Anything else? Yes, so Mark, good to have you with us. Hope everything is well over in Montreal. Hans, thank you. Pawicz. Thanks for tuning in, guys. So if that's it, we'll look to wrap it up. I can see people looming over my shoulder, so that's probably the key sign that I should be going home. So thanks very much.

All right, guys, uh, just let me have a look, quick look over the questions. Anastasia, could you 'Give me some details on the trading online stage.' Yeah, so we're, um, we're launching the online trading course any moment now, actually. So if anyone does have interest in that, just email over info@amplifiedtrading.com. I think the link is actually just below for anyone that is interested in that, and then we can send out information once that's up and running as well. Can you put the link in the 9-week careers program? Yeah, we'll put that in there as well. Uh, Gordon, hope you're well, mate. Good luck for United tonight. We've got a lot of Chelsea fans that would be very disappointed as mates if, uh, United wins, so fingers, fingers crossed. Um, but yeah, I hope everyone has a good evening. I will catch you all later on. Any questions, just let us know in the chat as well. But I hope you all enjoyed it. See you Friday, non-farm payrolls.