LIVE US Non-Farm Payrolls - 1st Nov 2019

Okay, testing out the mic. Let me know whether you can see and hear everything okay. Then we're going to do a session on the upcoming release of Nonfarm Payrolls in 25 minutes. So before I do crack on with things, just give me a heads up in the chat. So Fami, if I'm saying your name correctly, let me know if you're coming through okay. Drew, good to have you with us. Hope you are well. I do know you and I need to hook up at some point and talk over a couple things. Kurt, good evening. Hope you enjoy watching England win the World Cup tomorrow morning. As part of the deal, we do need a photo, Kurt, of you wearing an England shirt sent to us for the briefing on Monday morning, please. Absolute minimum requirement. All right, well, look, we've not got a great deal of time, and instead of me and Sam, you're gonna have to do with an upgrade. You've got me and Will. And so Will's gonna come on as well, and hopefully he can talk about how he's going to be looking at trading this event as well. And certainly it will be useful for you guys to see, given obviously the wealth of experience that he has, and he tends to be And this is a good starting point, I guess, for anyone who's a bit to trading. Uh, trading a news-driven event is definitely a high volatility, high risk situation. So that doesn't necessarily mean then that every single one of these is a tradable event. Often, more often or not, Non-Farm Payrolls is quite a— there's multiple different things that you need to look out for. Now let me just kick off with that. So I'll set the scene first before we look at the detail. This is the calendar of what's coming out today. So we've already had quite a few things, but as is always the case ahead of nonfarm payrolls, the morning is generally quite quiet. So we've had things like the UK manufacturing data out this morning. But look, UK manufacturing contracting for a 6-month is absolutely the most unsurprising thing I've heard today. And so given Brexit, Brexit, the uncertainty, the contraction in that particular sector, I don't think it's really that surprising. It is, albeit though, higher than expected. Uh, it did come in at 49.6 against 48.1, but overall I don't think it really shapes any decision-making at this point in time. Going back then to payrolls, the point being is a big event tends to saturate market attention. Everyone wants to await the big event. Now, from a new trader's point of view, uh, the kind of first step here is not to be caught up in the kind of drama. And, you know, you hear, you know, just looking on the web, if you search non-farm payrolls this morning, you know, the web is just littered with people saying everything about this data release. But if you caught my briefing this morning, obviously there could be a trade opportunity, could be volatile, but ultimately it could well be as well at the end of the day a bit of an event that passes without too much disruption. Given, as we'll discuss, the GM factor this time around. But when you're looking at trading something with multiple data points, obviously the more variables to monitor, the more tricky it is to interpret in a quick fashion. And market prices generally are a reflection of, uh, the speed of which humans can again interpret these types of reports and information. So there's really different phases here. So I'm going to switch over my screen to something a bit different which which is hopefully it will come through nice and clear. But what I'm gonna draw for you is kind of a, a, a pattern that will be quite distinctive that you might well see when payrolls comes out. And this is before we look at this specific report, but payrolls in general. So going into payrolls, what you tend to see then is everyone pulls their orders from the market. No one really wants to be, um, taking such risk to try and just have a position on in the intraday short-term environment because it's going to be subject to quite wild swings. So the withdrawal of liquidity means then that generally you start to see, uh, price movement exacerbated. Now one first thing, if you're not used to looking at payrolls, when it gets to about 3 seconds before the actual release of payrolls, you'll tend to see this type of movement. Like very choppy. Now a lot of that is down to the fact that because of a lack of bids and offers in the market, obviously the, the actual price point in itself, the touch if you like, is flying around. It almost looks like then, or can look like someone knows the data. Definitely if you've never looked at this before, this is where you often hear retail traders kind of screaming blue murder that a hedge fund knows the number or something like that. I can assure you that's not the case. It's a function of liquidity. Then what happens is, let's say payrolls comes out, and today it's expected a headline figure at 89,000, and it comes out at 170,000. You hear on the squawk. Now what will happen if we were looking at the dollar in isolation? Bang! Before you can even blink your eye, the price of, let's say, the dollar would rocket high in this direction. Now it almost happens before you even hear the squawk, and in fact, It does happen before you hear the squawk. Why? Well, the squawk inherently, although audio is the fastest point of delivery, it's also, it's gonna be always slightly slow. It's gotta go through the internet and then come out and you've gotta hear it. By that time, the algos, the automated systems, have already hit it at that point. Now, the point with payrolls is it's multifaceted. As we've just described here with the calendar, there are a multitude of different things you need to take take into consideration. Now when I say that, I do not mean that every one of these 14 points are, um, definitive or need to be— are going to have equal importance. That's not the case. I think trading any news event, like if you watched us trading the Fed on Wednesday, it's about elimination of information that's not going to move the market to then isolate the key metrics that traders will focus on. Now in this case, traditionally this comes in the order of non-farm payrolls, then the average hourly earnings, then we get the unemployment rate, and then we get the revision to the previous payrolls, and then the 2-month net revision. Now those numbers, pretty much in that hierarchy, is how the, the market will react. Now the way that a computer system, an algo, will work is it's a first-in-first-out reaction. Now the first data point that comes down, let's say the hose, the data hose out of the exchange into the algo, is the change headline in non-farm payrolls. Hence the reason why you get this explosive move. Now that could happen in either way, of course, but you get that immediate knee-jerk reaction. Now what often happens though, given that it's more than just a binary one-and-done number is then human traders start to interpret, well, okay, we've had a phenomenally strong headline, the algos hit it, we can see this, but how about average hourly earnings? How about the revision, the unemployment rate, the 2-month net revision? Does everything support and cement the idea that the dollar in this instance keeps rallying? Now, more often than not, Nonfarm Payrolls is mixed. So after the algo has executed, and often the exit point of where then they tend to exit the market is derived from, say, a previous price point of a high or a low of prior day's price action, the price can then often fade back. Now, where this goes, whether we continue in this direction or we come back to, let's say, hypothetically basically a previous area of resistance, now support, and then we bounce back higher. The decision here is then when the— where the human trade often comes. Now, if I was to classify this, this would be phase 1 of a move, this is phase 2 of a move. Now, this is where we're interpreting the report as a whole and trying to get an idea then, well, does the average hourly earnings— are they really strong? Do we have a positive revision and a positive 2-month net revision. And by this then, what I'm talking about— let me just transition my screen here. So this is phase 1 of the move, this is phase 2 of the move. So to determine whether the market goes up or down here, what we're looking at then is do the other data points support the same notion that this is a strong dollar positive, positive narrative? Now, as I said, more often than not, that might not be the case. And so therefore you get the downward move, and the headline is kind of eclipsed, if you like, by the overall interpretation, which is a negative report. Irrespective of strong job growth, the other metrics are poor. Or it's a mixed bag, and given what payrolls is like historically, you often get this, which can be positive job growth. Remember last month? Okay, job growth. People were very pessimistic, but then we had this number. We had absolutely zero wage growth. And so this is when you get that kind of pullback reaction. So the more you're looking for, generally speaking, when you're tackling these types of news-driven events, what you ideally want is all the metrics point in a unilateral direction, all very positive, outlying, breaking the top end of expectations, or the opposite. Therefore, you get a much more uniform, cleaner, one-directional move in the marketplace. Okay, so that's just a, a brief kind of explanation. The other thing here is that, you know, all of this what I've described here can happen in a matter of minutes. What can happen is, and often will on a numbers basis given backtesting, is that you tend to get this very whippy price action and then actually it can be several minutes, 15, 20, half an hour before then inevitably the market starts to then show some kind of direction, which can be then a more tradable opportunity where you can enter the market and manage your risk more appropriately. The one thing to finish on this kind of introductory point here is that You know, this is a high-risk type of event to trade, and being a successful trader is about being consistent and being disciplined. So we prepare and we strategize, and if the opportunity arises— remember, this is one thing, having known Will for a long time, the one thing that Will is awesome at is that when he makes a decision there is zero hesitation. He will enter that market and hit it immediately without a shadow of a doubt. But it's making that judgment call. It's because if you're going to trade a news-driven event, you have to be aggressive if you're going to hit it. I'm sure Will can add a bit more meat on the bones to his decision-making process. If not, and if you are newer to this and it's all still a learning phase, of which I would imagine might well be the case, it's going to take a lot of time to build up to this, then actually my best piece of advice is to watch, observe. Unless it's very outlying and very clear and one-dimensional, trade, sure. Otherwise, if you don't feel that conviction, leave it alone. There's my— is my kind of tip for you. All right, let's have a look at a few other things. So we talked earlier, let's have a quick recap. Whenever we're talking about uh, non-farm payrolls, the first port of call is, well, what's been the trend here? And payrolls has been, uh, dropping over time. You can see here we've had a print on the headline 178, 166, 168, 136. Today expected at 89,000. So does show then that if we were to put this chart here on a 5-year, we're breaking towards a trend downside to what has been the average over the last couple of years. So not only is manufacturing activity weakening, retail sales, the consumer has now been showing some signs of getting a bit nervous and those figures have been deteriorating. You had Chicago PMI yesterday was a big disappointment. So all of this is just supporting evidence for why the Fed are right to do what they have been doing, which is a mid-cycle adjustment and executing a third rate hike in the cycle that they did. The question mark on everyone's lips now in the market is not so much this payrolls per se, it's more to do with, well, what are the Fed going to do now? A lot of people scratching their heads on Wednesday night as to, was the Fed telling us that this is the end and this is the end of cutting, or are they telling us that actually data now carries a whole new realm of influence And what that means then is that every single data point is going to be— have to be realistically priced in then to what's going to happen in the month of December when the Fed have their next decision. Presently, just to give you a flavor for what the market is currently pricing, expectations around the next interest rate decision from the Fed, which happens on the 11th of December, is that rates will be on hold. Even if today is a disaster, and I'll explain why it might be discounted because of a one-time factor. I really personally don't think that the Fed take one data point in consideration. It's more than that. Um, interestingly, the next Fed meeting is the 11th of December. Obviously, what's happening the day after? UK general election's happening the day after. So it all seems to come at once. What's happening after that? US tariffs on China. So actually going into Christmas, which does tend to see— normally volumes tend to dry up a little bit as people obviously go on the seasonal break and so on. Actually, the second, third week of December is going to be awesome from my point of view, from a volatility macro trader's point of view. So yeah, much to look out for. Lo— going through then, I mean, from a headline point of view, it's been a little bit mixed. Um, if you actually look at, um, the data points that have been coming out here from the States over the course of the last couple of days, I mean, we've had Challenger job cuts was negative, corporate layoffs actually went up, so this would be a negative read across for the actual report in itself. Uh, initial continuing claims are pretty flat I wouldn't say there's anything too surprising out of those really that would create any type of nervousness about today's number, and they're much more lower weighted, I'd say, in terms of the general weighting that the market places on them as an indicator for the BLS report. We then have, uh, ISM Manufacturing, Non-Manufacturing. Now these two definitely are more interesting, and this is because these tend to be very closely followed by the market, and both the employment constituents were particularly weak. And then you've got Michigan, which was neutral. Consumer Board— consumer confidence was a small retracement, but again negative in the sense that it failed to meet expectations. ADP was pretty flat. JOLTS was a negative. Job openings fell below expectations in August. So overall, I'd say it's kind of neutral to negative in terms of setup going into this. And then most importantly, the reason why I think that a negative number perhaps will not have such an implication this time around is because of that factor we were talking about in the briefing this morning. And that factor being the idea that the data today will reflect the impact of nearly 50,000 striking General Motors workers, um, which happen right slap bang in the middle of when the data would have been captured for this report today. So with that being said, I almost think that that elevates this, this initial spike, because what might happen is the algo might hit it in and out super quick on the back of, let's say, we get a 10,000 headline, which should be right at the bottom of the range. However, I'm more interested to hear the composition of all of the numbers before then really interpreting affecting the whole report. Also, is it evident the size? If there is a 10,000 print but the GM impact is beyond that— because let's not forget that if GM shuts down, it's not just GM, there's all the suppliers and distributors who are also not able to have work due to the fact that the major auto manufacturer is closed. So if it's all put down to that, all the more reason why I think you'll get a reversal off the initial spike. Because people will just say, well, it will bounce back next month. And importantly, the Federal Reserve won't take it with the same type of credibility. So if it doesn't move the monetary policy needle for them, then really the data doesn't really matter a great deal. All right, well, look, I'm going to leave it at that. I'm going to let Will actually jump on if he doesn't mind, and I'm going to ask him to just talk through a more trading setup point of view any key things that he's, he's going to be looking at. So yeah, I'll hand over to him. One moment. The mic is on.

Thanks, Anthony. Um, hi everybody, I hope you're well. Um, yeah, so from my point of view, I mean, non-farm is, uh, particularly treacherous, um, especially trading equities. I mean, a lot of people trying to trade the S&P on non-farm payrolls can get chopped either way because obviously it's good news, good news or bad news. It's all about what the central bank does. Do remember that the big sell-off that we got in the S&P going all the way back to 2018, I don't know if you remember this, at the beginning of 2018 there, that large sell-off was on the result of better than expected nonfarm payrolls. So equities for me, not the one to trade during this event. But what I'm going to be looking at are the relationships between a number of assets. So, uh, the first one being T-notes. Um, so I'll be looking to see where T-notes are relative to their pivot levels. If I just add these here.

Okay.

So I'll be looking at T-notes on the short term, and it's really that ladder that I'm going to have open. But meanwhile, I'm going to be looking at things like gold, for example, and I'll be looking at where gold is on on the shorter term relative to its pivot levels also. And you can see obviously gold's actually got a couple of nice levels around here as, as targets. So there's gold on a shorter term time frame. And then if I add pivot levels there as well, I'm going to be using that really as a leading indicator for the other dollar-driven assets. So that obviously includes the euro-dollar. Again, looking at pivot points on a shorter term time frame. Now, I don't know which of these assets is going to move off non-farm payrolls, but what you'll see between the three of them— T-notes, gold, and the euro-dollar— is, um, one asset, you know, that they'll move in the same type of direction. Uh, gold tend to be very, very fast, as with the euro-dollar. T-notes may be slightly slower, but for example, if you find that gold breaks down below its pivot with conviction, I would be inclined to look to try and get short T-notes, for example, going down towards the pivot level. And the way that I'll manage that is simply then by watching the gold and the euro-dollar chart and seeing if— is there going to be any lack of momentum, or is there going to be any fall in momentum, in which case I'll then take the T-note trade off. And I'm not looking to trade this particularly long term. It's really just looking at the dollar. Equities are going to be harder to trade. What I can tell you, though, is if T-notes start moving lower because this data is much, much better than expected, or if T-notes start— well, let me put it this way. If T-notes start moving lower because this data is much, much better than expected and therefore you get dollar strength, that can then start to weigh on equities. And that's really because of the impact, obviously, that ultra-low interest rates have on on equity prices. Um, but this is, this is going to be my strategy. I'm looking at these 4 on the whole, and I'm looking at the relationships between them. Um, with non-farms, you tend to get an opportunity, uh, on the data release, um, that really is going to last a few minutes, and you might stay in that position 5 to 10 minutes or so. Um, then I'd say that's really that first opportunity over. Then you'll get another opportunity at the cash market open if this figure does come out significantly out of line, where then, you know, it's almost like there's a kind of second leg at the cash market open. And you can really get on a big non-farm payrolls day, you know, a trend there for about an hour or so. That takes us to 2:30, um, and then any London time, and then anyone trading non-farm, trading these markets after 2:30 London time Um, it's probably because they've lost money, to be honest. You know, non-farm payrolls is, is the day to leave early. It's good that it's a Friday, but everybody that trades at well will be closing their trading screens down by 2:30 today, that's for sure. Everybody that loses money will still be staring at their screen past 3 o'clock. But listen, we've just got a few minutes to go, so I'm going to pass over to Anthony Cheung. Good luck to everybody. Remember, this is— it's just one piece of data, one event. It's not what it used to be, non-farm payrolls. There might be an opportunity, in which case take it. And if there isn't an opportunity, just watch, just relax, enjoy. Don't put yourself under unnecessary pressure. Anthony, over to you.

Okay, so any questions at all on either what myself or Will have said, let me know now. Got about 2 and a half minutes then till the data comes out. So once again, just be mindful of the initial move, but it's about not getting too excited, remaining composure, and not expecting that, you know, payrolls is not all about just one number. It's not that simple. So just don't get too caught short jumping in on the first blip that you see on the chart, because often that can be quite devastating. You need to be more considered than that, and that comes from just interpreting the report, not having FOMO. And then if there's an opportunity, obviously, um, I'll be here, I'll comment, we'll put the squawk on in a second, they'll give us the rundown. So I'm gonna, I'm gonna switch off my mic momentarily now and just make sure that that's all up and running.

Just one minute on the US nonfarm payrolls report. I'll lead with the headline forecast at 89 before covering the earnings components, unemployment rate Any revisions to the headline, the private manufacturing and government breakdown, the participation rates, and the birth-death adjustment, as well as the T-bill net.

Yeah, so that's this.

And then also account for earnings from Chevron.

So that's the Squawk team, uh, they'll cover the numbers. I'll let them say it all and then I'll add anything that I see that stands out. Got about 30 seconds. Chevron earnings, forget about it.

10 seconds. 128, that's 128 above the expected of 89. Earnings month on month, 0.2 below expected, 0.3. The own year in line at 3%. Unemployment rate in line at 3.6%. The headline has been revised higher to 180. In terms of breakdown, private That's 131,000. The manufacturing at -36,000. Government payrolls, that's -3,000. Participation rate 63.3%, but expected 63.2%. Still waiting at the 2-month net and the birth-death adjustment.

Yeah, so everyone was talking about a downbeat adjustment just coming soon. Everyone was talking about a downbeat potential, of course, because of the General Motors factor. I mean, if that did— I'll have a look at the, the breakdown of the numbers, but if this includes that and it's still up that amount, well, obviously that's a stellar figure. So immediate dollar strength there. EURUSD just coming down to quite an interesting level you've got there, that being the, uh, the low point that we had in yesterday's session, the resistance point we had earlier in the week as well, midweek. And you've got the S1 there, that's the initial target on that push down that people have had. So Just keep an eye on that level in the euro. Obviously with the, the dollar move, the reaction, gold under pressure as the dollar spiked higher, yields following suit with the dollar. So T-notes under pressure, just testing that S1 level, which was also that similar low point that we had from yesterday, and equally pretty identical setup there with the euro and the T-note actually in terms of technically you've got the pivot or the S the S1, sorry, yesterday low, and then the midweek high that was restricting some of the price action. So some key levels to be watched here in the euro and T-notes now as they're testing on the downside, quite key technical levels, both exactly at the same point of time. Equities, decent shot in the arm there actually on the back of this breaking through the, uh, overnight Asia-Pacific highs. So that resistance point taken out, that was also the support point back on the previous day's overnight Asia-Pacific session. So S&P target as we print session highs, you can see here, um, you've got that long-term top of the, uh, the trend line that I think Sam would have had marked up earlier in the week. And you've got the previous high just short of the all-time high at 3051. It's tracking about 3 points ahead of where we are at the moment. So the average hourly earnings as well, and just in case you, you missed it, 0.2%. So that did show that improvement. Remember, it was flat last month. The 3% on the year-on-year was actually in line with expectations. The birth-death adjustment ratio, so number of— again, this is about companies being created or going bankrupt and so on— uh, 274,000. I mean, that's a, that's a strong figure. The unemployment rate was in line. The 2-month net revision was positive, nearly 100K. Uh, the previous was revised up from 136 to 180, so surprisingly strong. That's likely to just rebalance a little bit perhaps some growing pessimism that was being built into price after some of the weak data we had had, particularly Chicago PMI yesterday. So hence the response in a more positive bullish fashion. And, uh, yeah, just talking Okay, I'm just going to give it a minute or two, then I'll just update on the— there's a couple of people then commenting initially here talking about this kind of Goldilocks scenario. Return of that kind of mindset. If you think about it, the Fed have cut 3 times, uh, now you've got a decent bounce back in job creation, wages have returned back on the upside, we've got positive revisions on the previous numbers, birth-death adjustment is spectacularly strong. So don't want to read too much into one number, but obviously one strong payrolls doesn't mean that the Fed are going to start hiking rates, but all it means is that, you know, they've added some accommodation through policy and you're getting a, a kind of rebounding employment situation or a performing economy. And that's that kind of perfect storm, if you like, as far as equity conditions would be concerned. I'll see if Will's got a minute or so. I know he's in perhaps a couple of trades, but if he could jump on here, let's as well and, and share what he's seeing at the moment. Gold, another push down. Uh, equities session highs. So T-notes in euros still haven't broke that level yet, so I'm interested to see if they test now given the gold weight. If gold acts as that precursor, that pre-indicator, I'm quite keen to look at T-notes in euro here. Gold, another move on the downside. So you've got the S1 comes in at 1502 should we remain heavy. Uh, just having a look other areas of potential interest, perhaps just finding a little hesitation here at 0.057 in the futures, which was some of the downside support point through the Asia session on the 28th. Uh, the interesting level beyond that point would start to bring in around the 1,503 in gold. That's at a low of the 25th that twice when we had a large fluctuation in price. Could be another target if we get below 1505 here in gold. Yeah, there's one thing that another influential economist is saying, that if this data was dampened by GM strike, which lowered jobs by 42,000, I mean, what does that say about the underlying job strength? 42,000 jobs were removed because of the strike. So if you need to stick another 42 on top, I mean, it definitely supports that notion that the jobs market is healthy and poised to strengthen as these spike effects dissipate.

Thanks, Anthony Cheung. So yeah, for those of you guys in Trading Live, you would have seen me trade that live. So hopefully you found that interesting, just on gold and T-notes. I've sort of tried to send myself here and send Anthony just those trades. It was pretty much exactly as I put forward in the room, in that the strategy was to look at what T-notes were doing, look at what the euro was doing, look at what gold was doing and try and trade the correlation between them. Gold went first. I'm just waiting for those trades to pop up, one moment. Gold went first, which gave the opportunity in T-notes. So let me just show you the trades as they were, one moment. So my original T-note trade— T-notes are slower, um, so off gold moving, that was just a hit market on T-notes, not a huge amount of size, that's 5 contracts and all, then scaling out towards the pivot level. Obviously, you know, that we've broken through that now and that, that could have been a good hold. Um, but then as I mentioned, gold then after breaching lower initially, it then came back to the pivot level, which gave an opportunity for a classic short. Um, and much smaller arrows here, but small size. Look, there's, there's gold, classic short just below the pivot level, uh, scaling out of some of it and trying to scale out of it as we go down towards that S1 level. So trading the move of gold on T-notes, which tends to be slower to move, and then as gold had a rebound towards the pivot level, using that as a sort of a classic opportunity, small size. And then once that gold is exited, which I think I would have been filled on just that last one contract, now that's going to be it. Nothing, you know, no home runs, nothing huge to write home about, but just a couple of trades on gold. That's that, that second one of gold has been hit. So I've just got one contract left on gold now, and it's all about what we're trying to teach here in terms of, you know, taking an opportunity when it's there. Obviously, that's better than expected data, as Anthony Cheung said, you know, who knows what would be the data if it wasn't for the GM intervention. But it was a more simple trade than that. The trade was gold went first, Short T-notes, then there was a retracement in gold. If I just go back to a 1-minute chart here, you can see there was a bit of a retracement in gold back towards the pivot that allowed for another chance, bite at the apple. But it's really important to try and, you know, scale out of these positions. We might continue to trend lower, but I know Non-Farm so well, and what I don't want to happen now is obviously with us to go back above the pivot level with my full risk on the table. So I've just got, uh, 1, 1 out of 5 left on now in gold. And that's it. That would be it for me for, for non-farms. Um, there's likely to be— because this is quite interesting data, um, given the General Motors thing— there's likely to be a bit more action at 1:30. So look, if you didn't get into a trade, now's not the time. You can see everything has slowed right down. You might want to wait for some pivot levels, or you might want to wait for the cash market open at 1:30. But as I said, you tend to get about 10 minutes worth of opportunity. Now it's stopped. Next piece of opportunity will be at 1:30. Okay, thanks, Sam.

Okay, I'm going to end the, uh, the YouTube broadcast on that note. I'm going to switch it back to tradinglive.com and then we can continue monitoring this for the rest of the session and beyond. Okay, got the open on Wall Street, 45 minutes. Uh, again, one final departing word that, you know, it does often take a bit of time for the market to digest these things. But as Will rightly said, I do feel this is kind of one of those, um, lesser often setups where this was a little bit more clearer this time around. It was just a good report on a variety of different factors. The one thing you can see here though on the cross-asset mix is that euro never broke that level, either did T-notes or gold. So now that those respective levels have bounced, it kind of takes a away any of that potential momentum or breakout that you could have got if the market was moving more aggressive with some momentum. So that's the top left, euro dollar, top right, gold, and the bottom. So you can see there, gold, that level here and here, it's, it's about monitoring then when all of those levels— if you get a simultaneous coordinated break, that's when you tend to get a more heavy move. And with that S&P resistance point not far away, if all four went at the same time then potentially then you can offer you that opportunity. But at the moment, all those levels holding up. So okay, gonna leave the broadcast on here at that. So thank you very much, guys. Short and sweet, but hopefully it was useful. Don't forget to subscribe to the channel if you're not already done so, and have a fantastic weekend, and catch us for the, the week ahead briefing on Monday. Otherwise, all the other guys, I'll see you back in trading live in 5 minutes time.