LIVE US Non-Farm Payrolls - 6th December 2019

Testing out the mic. So just going live session, just let me know with a 'y' in the chat if you can see and hear me okay. So before I get into the nuts and bolts of what we're looking at for this upcoming On Farms in half an hour, just let me know if you can hear me okay. Albert, hello from Sydney. Hope you're well. What time is it where you are? A bit of a late one on a Friday night. Ian, hope you're well. Hope your wife is doing better. Okay, so I assume people can hear me. If I can get a shout on the trading floor if you can hear me okay. Just give me a thumbs up before I get going. Okay, cool. So let's just have a quick look at the charts then before we get into just previewing this non-farm release. Um, obviously, as is usually quite typical, uh, of a pre-non-farm morning, things relatively quiet at this point. Now obviously there's an ongoing OPEC meeting in Vienna. I just had a squawk a moment ago from Ranskorp covering the OPEC conference live. They were just talking about Russia still, you know, seemingly looking to get this official deal over the line. The talk yesterday about half a million deeper cuts of the existing 1.2 million deal that they had struck. So having a look at oil prices, I've got the WTI chart here down at the bottom, and as you can see, we've had some fluctuation near-term trendline seeing a breach earlier around midday, and we're covering and finding some resistance at that same point. But bearing in mind, we have, you know, positioned ourselves and built in the idea that, yes, a production cut is coming. And so there is a bit of scope on the downside. And, you know, certainly oil's had a real roller coaster of movement over the course of the month of kind of late November, December. The trade deal, of course, looking like Phase 1 might be unwound between the US and China. Fears about the oversupply with the demand forecast for 2020. A number of different real factors at play. But you can see, having got down to a 55 touch, we're right back and found some support near-term at the S1 level. So really now, I guess, looking for the data, perhaps a little bit of dollar influence. But don't forget, If you're in any positions, the OPEC meeting can throw up some curveballs, particularly with getting an overall coordinated agreement. So do be aware of that. Otherwise, elsewhere, just a quick look at the charts before we look at the, the payrolls information. Sterling, a little bit of a dip this morning, however, has started to consolidate around its pivot point, just waiting really for the dollar to take its lead coming up shortly. And obviously it's been a, you know, really decent week for the pound. What we've had is— let me just change my screens over to here for a moment. This is the average poll of polls, so the poll tracker. And polls continue to come out pretty much daily. And what we've seen is the— this time last week we were getting quite a distinctive narrowing in the polls down to, I believe it the ICM one, which got down to as narrow as 6 percentage points, which was really Labour really gaining some ground and the Tories losing a bit of momentum. However, since that point and over the last couple of days, you've had a real re-widening and stabilisation of what is on average roughly a 10, 9, 10 percentage point lead. And that helping then bed in the pre-positioning. Obviously, it's less than a week to go now until the UK election. And for the moment, the price of the pound really is reflecting still a large degree of conviction behind a Conservative majority. Of course, I'm just going to change this out. This is a chart I'm sure Sam's had marked up for a while, but this is looking a much longer term on the daily continuation. Let me just stretch out even further so you can see here we're coming up to a real key point Uh, from a technical perspective, uh, hopefully my chart— my camera is not hiding the relevant information, but here, I mean, this is going back all the way to a really long-standing trend line from July 14, April 18, and we're right at that point now, which is overlaid by two other technical relevant factors: the 1.32 handle, and you've got that that area of firm resistance that we had back in May of this year. So yeah, definitely, I mean, given if we have a poor enough NFP report, if the dollar was to get hit aggressively, helping further fit that fundamental narrative of sterling remaining pretty solid on the opinion polls at the moment— well, breach of that critical point we're at, you know, I'm talking not intraday but medium term. Perhaps then there's a little bit more upside to come ahead of the election if all things remain equal. So that's kind of the setup of the charts. The US index futures holding on to moderate, albeit relatively small gains. Obviously most US participants just waiting, sitting on their hands for the, the payroll release. Gold recovering some lost ground seen first thing early this morning, having broken the prior day's bottom end of the range here on the top right. Uh, so trading just sub its pivot, which has provided some resistance here in the last hour. And in the US, 10-year has done absolutely nothing in the bottom right-hand corner, again, as people are awaiting this, this data point. So a couple things to be aware of for, for non-farms. I'm going to talk about it from the fundamental perspective. I'll get it wrapped up fairly prompt in the next 10 minutes, and then I'll hand you over to Sam and he can look over how he would approach it from a trade execution point of view, uh, starting off with the evidence that we've had apparent since then, uh, the commencement of really the employment indicators. So anyone who's new to markets, essentially what you have is non-farm payrolls would normally come out the first Friday of the month, not unless that there is a bank holiday like Black Friday, meaning then it can get bumped to then the next Friday, hence the reason it's happening today. But normally first Friday of the month. Now, what we, we have in this case is ADP, but a whole selection of other related employment indicators give us a bit of a snapshot about what were the employment conditions of the United States of America then ahead of when we get the full Labor Department's report, which is the US change in nonfarm payrolls. Now, the things that people give quite a lot of weighting to from this perspective is things like ADP. which would typically come out midweek ahead of the payrolls report on a Friday. Now, this was the headline reading. Of course, if you're in markets day to day, you'll be already up to speed with this. But for those who are not, US employers add the fewest number of jobs in 6 months. Now, what did that look like? Well, here's the, the change in private industry employment. So again, the difference between ADP is it is private payrolls, non-farm payrolls is the government's report ex kind of farm jobs because of its impact of seasonality. Now with here, with private industry employment, the reading that came out was a big miss on expectations. And so has this then, uh, created the bar of expectation a little lower perhaps on the estimated headline reading, which on the street is 183,000, a downside bias given the gravity of the miss that we had in this number. It basically came out as pretty much half the consensus estimate. Now, the reason why this is quite interesting, because when you actually look at the ADP report, it's showing that there's quite a clear moderation in hiring activity in US corporations. Uh, corporate investment is then pointing to what they are protecting themselves against, which is a Q4 slowdown. Now, at the moment, as far as North American data is concerned, this is the composition, if you like, of the US GDP growth rate over the course of the last 2 years. And as you can see here, this would be Q1. America was growing at 3.1%, then 2%, then 2.1%. So Q3 was actually surprisingly strong, all things considered, with people panicking about the inversion of the yield curve and the ongoing escalation in trade war. But we actually outperformed. The problem is though, is that the indications would be, given the weakness of some data we've had, particularly in the last week or two, the US growth is materially weakening. Now this is something I touched upon in the briefing, but to recap those who, who missed that, this is the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Now again, for anyone new to markets The US nationally— obviously there's a US central bank which makes the key decisions about monetary policy, but that is broken into 12 distinct regional districts, and each district has its own reserve bank. So Atlanta is one of those specific regions. Now, the reason behind that, very simply, is because different regions in America have very different individual unique economies. If you took somewhere like Chicago or Detroit comparative to, say, California, obviously the mix is very different, and therefore, uh, its employment situation is very different. Now here, what this GDPNow model is, and it's something which as a reference point of view you might hear referred to quite often when you're looking at economic data, is a methodology that the Atlanta Fed have that mimics that of the BLS. The only difference being that it's an updating model rather than something that gets only really looked at by analysts periodically. So it's a really good forward-looking indicator as to, given the incoming data— and this will translate then as to what central bankers are probably thinking about policy decisions in the future and about where this— or how strong or weak growth will be in the future. So here, what it's suggesting then is when the next GDP number comes out for Q4, then GDP is expected at 1.5%. So go back to that chart of US GDP, that would be quite a bit weaker, and in fact the weakest growth rate we've had since right at the end of last year. And you remember what happened at the end of last year, the That was when we had that pretty sizable correction in global financial markets at the, at that period of Q4 2018. Now, a couple of other things more payroll specific, and then I'll see if there's any questions which I'll swap with Sam and address in the chat room. So do drop them in when you can. Weather and General Motors, these are two factors of which you need to be aware of. Now, one of the surprising things, if I remember rightly, about last non-farm payrolls Well, let's quickly jump, jump back on here and have a look. So if we go here, let's look at headline non-farm. Now here it came in at 128,000 last time. Now remember though, market expectations were for 89,000 last month. It was particularly suppressed because of the fact that there was a well-known large-scale General Motors workers strike which impacted around 40,000 workers. However, despite that, the number was 128,000, which although looks quite low, was actually exceeded expectations by a large margin. Um, so here then, when we start looking at these events, what's expected to happen is those GM workers have gone back to work over the payroll survey period. That means then there should be a one-off 40,000 added contribution of the number of jobs created. So hence the reason why the expectation on the headline today is 183,000. That's one of the most punchiest numbers, would be the third best number over the last— over the course of 2019 payroll readings. And a lot of that is down to the fact that the GM coming is a positive cross-current, if you like, or a headwind. The negative though is weather. Now one thing that Goldman Sachs have been talking about, because you often hear of these big Wall Street players talking about what they're thinking, and they've put particularly temporary factors including the late Thanksgiving and the snowstorm in Midwest will likely weigh on the jobs numbers. So this is the counterargument that might offset then the GM 40K, uh, benefit in this particular month's reading. So it's going to be a little bit difficult, I'd say, to overinterpret or analyze the headline reading. What in my mind will happen then is you get an almost further exaggerated initial snap reaction, which I would encourage you not to get too drawn into because there's going to be a lot of noise around a particularly high or low number on the headline. Now the range— I was just talking to the guys at Ranskorp— even though the headline is 183, the range is 120 at the low, the most pessimistic to a high of 237,000. Uh, so that'd be the most bullish. So again, you're looking really for more definitive movement for a lowball number. Remember, ADP did come in, uh, nearly 50K. You know, it's more like 66, so definitely that lower bound could be breached. Um, what are the other things to be aware of? Well, here are the other employment-related information to be aware of. Um, I'd— let's start with the most important. So when I'm looking at this table of job-related data ahead of Non-Farm as to try and become more informed about how I feel the performance of this report will be, there's definitely— each one of these data sets does not have equal importance. What I mean by that is Challenger Job Cuts, for example, is not seen by market participants as influential as an accurate pre-forecasting of what, say, the ISM non-manufacturing and manufacturing components would be. So here I would say, for me, first thing I'd look at is, yes, what's the expectation? And then secondly, what was ADP? Now ADP, as I said, came in at 67,000. Expectations were for 140,000, so it was a substantial miss. Then we look at— I'd say the next priority is manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI from ISM, and they were mixed. The non-manufacturing sector, the employment subcomponent, was actually an improvement in the prior month of November against October, whereas manufacturing— we know generally manufacturing activity in the US has been weakening of late. That also translated in the employment component. So you've got bad ADP, very bad in fact, and also negative non-ISM or non-manufacturing ISM, slightly offset by the manufacturing or the non-manufacturing picture. You've then got consumer confidence, mixed really. Michigan was good, but the Conference Board's version was bad. And then you've got your weekly jobless continuing claims, which again was quite mixed. So I'd say on the balance it's a little bit of a mixed picture. I wouldn't put all of my chips on ADP is an accurate no-brainer of what then payrolls will come out as on the headline. That's no— that's rarely the case that it's that pinpoint accurate. If anything, there can be wild deviation between the readings. So although that gives us a downside bias potentially to headline reading, you've got to overlay those other factors— the weather, the GM, and so on. So that's kind of the overall picture. The other final part from me, and then I'll hand you over to Sam— well, actually, I'll let him come on first, and then I'll talk over a few other points. My final point I was going to do is bring up a calendar and then say, non-farm payrolls though, is more than just a headline reading. Even if you knew that the headline reading was going to come out at 220 or 60, very little you can really do with that information without digesting, analyzing, and interpreting the entirety of the report. Payrolls is more than one number. Payrolls is a headline number that causes the first knee-jerk reaction, but the overall then direction of markets comes very much from the average hourly earnings, the unemployment rate, the revision, and the 2-month net revision. It's those numbers in combination which you need to interpret. My advice really is to prepare, as Sam will probably discuss, for up and downside levels. Real key levels of which the market could push to under different scenarios is the way to approach this, not trying to force your your kind of view onto, onto market prices. Yeah, you've got to go with what the information tells you if you are in fact going to trade this event at all. All right, that's it from me. Let me hand you over to Sam and then let's see what he's got to say from a technical setup.

Yeah, hi guys, hope we're doing well. Let's have a quick look over some of the markets And the main ones to focus on— bring in gold here to have a quick look at— relatively quiet over the last half hour, hour or so, as you'd expect in the morning of non-farm. It's going to take these lines off. You can see the low that we made today is, is pretty important, and that's going to be something that I'd still absolutely have marked up. It could be your line in the sand for any more dollar strength should the number be perceived as good. You've got the low from here, you've got the low from Wednesday as well, and then the high of the morning that we had on the 3rd before that push through. So futures 1460, uh, 1476.5 is key. A breakthrough that, then I'd really be targeting those, those highs that we had from Friday and Monday as well. To the upside, the pivot, as you can see, is the high of the day holding firm, and then there's quite a bit of resistance above there around the R1. Yesterday's high would be having that on there as well. If we were to get an outline number, good or bad, I would also be looking to have a couple of these trend lines on. A break of the, the top one for gold could really signal a strong push higher if it's weak across the board. But if of course it is a, a good number, strong number, where we could easily, you know, break that low of the day and then come back down to test this area here. And I feel if we close the week below there, well, it could be relatively ugly for gold coming up and, uh, uh, test these lows. Uh, hi guys in the chat. And having a look over at euro as well, uh, we over the last couple of days have come up to a pretty interesting area, it has to be said. We're talking about this in the briefing yesterday and today. You can just see how many times it's come here and we've had good price action. If you like your, your medium-term trading, this is an area to, to consider, to be honest, either way. Uh, obviously at the moment the short, uh, is, uh, is favorable, but the release could spike it. And again, comes down to that close of the week. Can we get above here, above this, this area with futures coming in 1111? And then we could, we could push and be looking there for the lows that we had back on the morning of the 4th when we had a big push down early on. So that would be somewhere to, to consider. Same as gold, if it is going to be a strong number, where are those key supports? And you can see at the beginning of the week on the 3rd and then the 4th as well, such a strong level. So really probably in a bit of a range now. But saying that, the S1 is the low of yesterday early morning and the previous high. So putting this onto that 15-minute time frame, you can see the significance of that point as well. No real trend line coming from the top but, uh, certainly gets very interesting above where we're trading here. And I'll be keeping an eye on that low down there because if that is to go, it's like gold with any strength. You're suddenly looking at those levels from the back end of November before we had a strong push on the 2nd. The pound, obviously with other things going on, probably not the, the market to be focusing on for the dollar side of things. It might spike one way or the other, but Brexit, general election is going to be the driver here, so I'm not going to spend too much time on that. T-notes going to follow, uh, the gold and the euro dollar on the chart. And you can see just trying to push above, you've got a key level above where we're trading. We almost made it today. You can see the high from yesterday evening was the low of the fourth strong point, and it has been quite technical this market. You see the way it's been waving down, so a push above that high for today would be pretty significant and could lead to a nice end to the week. Also looking at those lows, trend line well respected to the bottom, so strong dollar push and we could get, uh, that move lower. So I think more detrimental to these markets and probably the bigger move would be off some, some dollar strength and be a bit of a surprise following the weaker dollar anyway. So yeah, keep an eye on that trend. Can we get a push lower? And obviously gold, as mentioned if that breaks that low as well and euro breaks its low, well, it could get relatively ugly. The big one, S&P, what we're going to do here, well, 3129 for me is, is the key one. Around 3130 as well, you can see you've got some, some nice, uh, price action here from the 19th, the low of the 25th. We broke through it on Monday like it wasn't there. And also that R1, of course, today as well. That's, uh, a level to keep an eye on for today, but also I think going into next week. Can we get above there? Then we'd be looking towards 3141, and suddenly you're looking at the all-time highs again, which is pretty remarkable. Uh, but what's going to get there? Is it going to be one of the cases where a really bad number is then seen as good, or is a bad number bad, or is a good number good? It's always tricky. So I would focus on gold, a currency pair, obviously probably the euro against the dollar, and then, uh, T-notes as well, rather than looking for S&P to, to have that reaction. I think if it's a good number, you'll get the spike higher, but then if it's really good, then, well, hang on, we're gonna have to probably come down a bit as well. Either way, you've got to imagine if it's a bad number, there's gonna be one man tweeting about it. In fact, he's just been tweeting 6 minutes ago about the stock market up record numbers. Maybe he thinks, uh, maybe he knows something we don't. Well, I'm sure he does. But yeah, looking at this more intraday, just to wrap up before Ant comes back on, another level here, 31,1920. Gotta have that marked up. The pivot yesterday acted so well, so keep a watch on that. But probably most importantly for the week, if the bears really want to take control, this trend line from the low of the third, the then the fourth low of yesterday. I mean, look at that, we closed below there. and we could really push higher. And I say, I was going as far as saying if we do close below there, that all-time high is most likely to be the high of the year. Yeah, t-shirt up for grabs, by the way, guys, for anyone that gets that number right. So I'm seeing the guesses come through. You only get one guess, and we can obviously scroll back to go for it. Uh, it'd be interesting to see what Anthony thinks because he, uh, he actually holds the record for the right amount of guesses. Whether it's inside trading information or not. We'll have to— we'll leave that up to you. But yeah, pass you over to— and we'll be on throughout, so any questions, get them in the chat.

Yeah, there's just one point I wanted to add, which if I bring over Twitter, I did see a good post that summarizes this. Give me one moment, let me bring up on my screen. Inside trading. I have no understanding or recollection of anything that Sam is saying, Your Honor. But having a look then, these are the— this is the collection here. Just want to focus you on the left-hand side, and this is the expectation. So we have talked more specifically about, let's say, the headline reading, but you've got the unemployment rate here. So just wanted to make make sure you've got these written down. A few minutes to go. Unemployment rate expected 3.6%. The average hourly earnings expected month to month 0.3%, year on year 3%. Private payrolls 175,000, manufacturing payrolls 38,000, government payrolls the previous was -3K, labor force participation rate 63.3%. Now when there's a lot of numbers like this, really the main focal point is two things. One, identifying— well, eliminate the ones that are really quite unnecessary to, to look at, because the market normally takes its cue from one or two parts of this report. Normally, first and foremost, it's kind of a first-in, first-out reaction in terms of how the algos generally trade this event, and that, no, you know, undoubtedly is the headline figure. But beyond the headline, I would keep an eye on the average hourly earnings, because what can happen and add to that volatility and choppy and price— choppiness in price action is you get a really strong headline but a really weak average earnings and potentially an uptick in unemployment and a down revision on the previous payrolls. What that means is it's all over the place, and so then it's better to step away, let the market digest it, and then look to take action accordingly. So again, just, you know, there's there's no need to get FOMO. Trading payrolls doesn't necessarily mean you need to hit it aggressively. A move from payrolls can take minutes, hour, or hours. I have seen it not really react more definitively until the actual Wall Street open of cash equities in New York, and that's not until an hour later. The other final point I want to say from a macro perspective, and then we'll wrap this, and then we'll listen in live, is there's a lot of other important things happening in markets right now. Ask yourself this: if payrolls was very weak or very strong, are the Fed— let's say if it was very weak— are the Fed going to cut rates? I mean, we're not priced for a rate change in the US for approximately 12 months, so it's not going to massively change the needle, so to speak. So with that being said, unless it's catastrophic or supremely strong, you know, don't get, you know, don't get too drawn into it is what I'm saying. The trade war is still the number one story in town. So whilst this might provide some short-term movement and a bit of an ignition to prices in what otherwise has been a relatively quiet session so far, yes, look at these key technical levels like Sam's got up on the chart right now here. For a break and a potential push on back up to that higher end of the late November bottom end of that range, uh, with the R1 or R2 in between, you know, only if that opportunity arises should you be taking those trades in, in my opinion. So, all right, I'm going to leave it at that. You got 90 seconds. I'm going to leave my mic on so you can hear the live squawk with the data coming out. Okay, good luck.

Welcome to the US jobs report. I'll lead to the headline non-farm payrolls change forecast at 180. I'll move on to the earnings metrics and your revision to the headline, the unemployment rate and the labor force participation, before we do on to the Canadian employment full-time, part-time breakdown, unemployment rate, participation rates, wages. Then I'll pick the bones of the US report, the private manufacturing, government, the US net Anthony Cheung, one minute.

Yeah, things like oil touching session lows at the bottom. Yeah, don't get too drawn into a lot of the just before the release price movement. Liquidity generally is quite thin as people pull their orders. Better to stay out of harm's way and wait for the release to hit, then take action accordingly. Okay, just come out to 30 seconds.

30 seconds. 10 seconds.

266.

266. That's 266, better expected of 180. For earnings, month on month, 0.2. Year on year, 3.1. Workweek hours, 34.4. The headline, that's revised to 156. Unemployment rate, 3.5. Labor force participation, that's 63.2%. The kind of—

Yeah, just quickly, just going to turn the squawk down. So immediately a much stronger headline figure breaks the top end of the expected range, comes in again. The top end of the range was 2.37%. This is coming in at 2.66%. The unemployment rate also was 0.1% lower than anticipated. The average hourly earnings, 0.1% higher on a year-on-year, the month-to-month, 0.1% lower. So on the balance, on those, on the initial glance, obviously much stronger. People were obviously biased to the downside given ADP, hence the snap you've got here. Yields immediately higher, dollar spikes on the back of that move. Just having a look here, equities upside, so breaking the range now of what had held in the Nasdaq and the S&P at around the R1, just printing fresh session highs. Yields also getting hit quite aggressively here, as you would imagine. Keep an eye on the US 10-year, pretty big level coming up here. The bottom end of the deck lows testing at the S2 put us right at the lowest point we've been since around, uh, middle of November if we're trading the March futures contract. So just having a look there, keeping the 10-year in focus. Coming down to its first level of key support. Let's see how it reacts to that dual-fold technical point of interest. Yeah, just having a look at the euro at the moment. There's a really near-term level of significance. It had a little look, hasn't managed to really get its, uh, a clean break of that level as yet. You can see the price movement, and this is looking at really a key level for the month of December overall. So I'm just going to pop a rectangle on there so you can see what I'm talking about. Right there, quickly broke, ran down, hit immediately to the tick around the S2 before a bit of a bounce. So at the moment, what I'm looking at from a, a correlation point of view, an initial reaction to this, is the dual-fold movement of that level in the euro is holding, that T-note level is holding. And as long as that does, at the moment gives me lesser conviction that the equities are going to really push on. I'd want to see that euro 10-year break those levels or conversely equities to push on could be the trigger point for the 10-year to go. So just having a look here, if the S&P and NASDAQ can pick up a bit of momentum, then that might just act as the trigger to break that level in the 10-year, and you might get a little extension of some of these initial moves. Cable coming down to that level of which was the morning low before we saw that recovery. So you've got a bit of a band of support coming in from that intraday level. The price uh, price levels from before. Just to cover as well, uh, in case you missed it, the revision was 156. So remember, the previous was 128, so an upward revision on the previous to 156. The 2-month net revision was +41,000, adds further belief of, uh, a decent print here. Not just a large and clear beat on the headline, but upward positive revisions as well, which helps that narrative of the move. Equity is now a little bit of a push on. So as we come through, look, the 10 yen now starting to breach, and now I'm looking a bit more interest. Gold session highs. It's a bit of a further continuation of that move. Sam, anything you want to add? Yeah, I'll get Sam back on, see what he's got to say.

Yeah, well, you can see those, uh, those key points. S&P above there is big and definitely want to have that marked up and keep a look on that. I think if you're, you're in the long there, obviously you're going to have the R2 in picture. And, and really kind of where we're testing now is important. You've got the low there, the back end of the 26th. But overall, you know, if it gets through that, 31.41, the main one to look at. Euro testing this level here here is, is big, really is big. And, and a lot of the time with these, the 5-minute closes can be, you know, massively important. You know, I can— it can be tempting, of course, as soon as we get below there to want to get in, but where we close 5 minutes can often save, uh, save some pain. And here we didn't quite close, so for me I wouldn't be looking to get in too aggressive just yet. I'd want a bit more confirmation before wanting this short on the euro. Let's have a quick look over Gold as well, because I need a spike on that. Was, uh, was pretty good to the downside here. And there you go, look, it's testing that area here. 5-minute close was above, so similar to Euro here. And I think until we would, you know, let's just say if we are going to get that continuation lower, unless we get your 5-minute closes below these points. And then for Euro here, I wouldn't be surprised if there's no more downside just yet. Um, pound had a bit of a spike, to be fair, but nowhere near as big as the others. And that is just because focus is elsewhere, understandably. T-notes lower, of course, big spike down on that, and we're testing, uh, the lower part of, uh, of that level. But also here you can see it's also the low of the 14th. So gold, T-notes, and euro all testing really key points right now, but waiting for those 5-minute closes would be advisable before looking to jump back into these markets. I have to say, uh, the S&P just drifting down a bit. I mean, it hit that level pretty much to the tick. As with these markets, any retracement of previous highs, not a bad place to get in. Maybe that 3129 is, is, uh, not a bad option. Interesting to see what Trump has to say as well. These numbers good, stocks across the board up as you'd expect. NASDAQ and S&P and down.

If anyone's got any questions in the immediate aftermath, do let us know. Just pop them in the chat room. So at the moment, just having a look again, recapping these levels. Euro's holding for now. The 10-year hasn't yet confirmed the break, so things are just stabilizing a little bit. I guess one of the things here from an equity point of view, if, if there is a US-China deal, phase 1 at least, and if the the US economy starts performing. Yeah, I mean, how quickly do we start, you know, this notion of pre-this number of pricing in the next rate move being a cut starts to become a little bit more the other way around. But I would say, thinking of a central bank mentality, you know, don't look at one piece of data in isolation would be my, my bet. I'm going to come off the mic and I'm just going to have a quick read through the BLS report. See if there's any other things of interest that we can talk about. One of the things, just had a very quick conversation, one of the traders here is, you know, if you're, if you're new to trading particularly, is like, don't feel like you've missed the move if you haven't traded just yet. You know, the, the reaction to payrolls, similarly with other big event-driven news that comes out, like a rate decision for example, there can be first, secondary, third phases to moves. The main thing is being disciplined now, not jumping in the market, not unless there's a good technical point where you could get good price of entry and also manage to trade from a risk perspective accordingly. And so now if equities do push on, strategize around how are you gonna how you're going to translate that into a trade in perhaps a coordinated move. So instead of trading the US 10-year, using that then as a break if euro does go or gold extends on the low, where to then? How would you play that out? Equity is still fairly buoyant stateside. So yeah, I'm going to just have a quick look at the BLS report, so I'm going to come off the mic for a moment. Just from reference sake, again, to make it— I get the session a little bit educational as well as hopefully just covering the moves. If you go on the BLS, you just type in BLS NFP report on Google, it'll take you to the exact page on the Department of Labor where if you scroll down to the bottom you can click and see and have access to the entire non-farm report. Again, it can be quite useful for just looking at it a little bit more of a kind of granular level if there's any anomalies of why the numbers were particularly strong, for example. So let's just see if it says anything about General Motors. GM. Yeah, so notable job gains occurred in healthcare, in professional and technical services. Employment rose in manufacturing, reflecting the return of workers from that General Motors strike, of course. Course. I've just put the, uh, link into the chat if you want to have a look in your own time. Just having a look, equities, another little push now on the upside. Interestingly, S&P now extending on those gains. So let's just have a quick look straight through that low point and the kind of respective high we had on the 19th of November, the low on the 26th. So next target on the upside, if we get above that R2 level, it's kind of got to go a little bit higher up till we get to kind of 40s in the S&P. Starts to bring into play play the highs on the 26th, resistance there on the same day, and those areas of support we also saw. So we're at that next technical point of relevance at the R2 on the daily pivots. But any other further push-up, looking at 41 if we get any follow-through in the move. Let's have a quick look, NASDAQ though, and what might restrict some of that S&P movement. If you're looking at the coordinated moves across the 3 majors. The Nasdaq's now running into that obstacle, which is the R2. That is also brings in very close proximity to quite key levels here, and it rough on the, some of the November upside price action, and also some of the support points seen later on in that month, all around the same level. So some decent technical points now that might put a bit of a barrier to this. The One thing I'm also seeing is a bit of a pullback in the dollar, and so EURUSD is just bouncing off the initial spike lower, and that probably gives me less conviction about these further break higher in the equity space because the currency markets are reversing course a little. Okay, any other questions? Let us know, just fire them in the chat. I'll probably keep the feed going for another 5 minutes and then we'll wrap up, let you guys just crack on. Any questions, let me know, just pop them in the chat. Just while I'm waiting for you to do that just want to have a quick mention on two things. One, if you're not— and you are watching this on YouTube, do subscribe. We are going to cover, um, the entire UK election live. So me and the team, we're going to come in at 9 PM London time next Thursday. I'm going to do a full preview of what to look out for under all different types of scenarios. And then obviously the exit polls— polling booths close at 10 PM London. We're then going to stay all the way through the night. We'll have a live feed running throughout where obviously you can still ask questions, uh, and then, you know, we'll be here for as long as it takes. So obviously a hung parliament, that type of situation, all the more exciting and probably necessary that that you'll need a little bit of guidance to pick your way through the noise if it is that type of scenario. Secondly, the other thing I just wanted to mention was this— transition my screens. You might recognize the side of this guy's head right here. This is Sam North. It's not the Sam North course, of course. It's the— we've just launched our new online professional trader program And so if you are— I've just seen in the chat there's a couple of people in, in Russia, there's a person in Philippines, Indonesia. So amazing that you guys are following us from, from those locations. Obviously training with us in London is probably too much for you guys specifically, so we basically have taken a lot of what we do and created an online e-learning platform. So there's a link there do take a look if you get time. Might be something you're interested in. Also as well, if you follow this through, I mean, there's, there's explanation about our program that we do. We are by default global macro traders, so we're kind of specialists in the fundamentals, but of course we cover things like technical analysis, risk management, trading psychology. Again, more info here if you're interested. Click Start Now. You just hit that button, pop in your details, and then you'll get a free, uh, kind of lesson from Head of Trading Piers, who's been active in the chat while we've been talking. And then it will take you to the e-learning platform. If you were to register for that, if when you hit the paywall, if you use the coupon code NFP10, you'll get a 10% discount. All right, enough of that. Let's go back. Ed, you just asked a question. Good figure for the S&P in that it doesn't put pressure on the Fed. However, for next week, does this figure and the market reaction not increase the probability of Trump not softening on China tariffs? Yeah, I like it. I like your thinking. As I said, the— I don't think that the num— the Fed will not react to this one number in isolation just because it's a good figure. This— if I was a central banker, this is just one of a variety of different components of things that you need to look at in order to make a best decision about the relevant policies for now, for the future. And so although this is good, well, that's, that's fine if that does support— and what has been a fairly depressed equity market at the beginning of the week under the cloud of the trade war Now, the question mark here is that if the domestic economy is solid, as long as popularity remains relatively decent for Trump, can he pursue then continuing to put the pressure on China? With that being said, there's obviously a very, very important date in your calendars for arguably, you know, forget the UK general election and the Fed Reserve meeting on the 11th. The main story in town really is next weekend, because next Sunday the 15th is when the new level of $160 billion of tariffs on Chinese imports is gonna be initiated. Now between now and then, I do think that perhaps there could be renewed risk for things like the S&P because if If then the domestic economy is performing well, does Trump continue to push this all the way down to the wire? And markets need to reflect that risk, the risk of a no deal or a deal breaking down, even though we know in our hearts of hearts that they'll probably strike a deal at the last moment and temporarily freeze then the initiation of those December tariffs. And so between now and then, I think you could have a potentially a similar setup to the— what we've had play out this week, which is, if you think about it, we've gone on this whole roller coaster in US equities over the course of a week. I mean, just check that out. If I put a box around the price action we've had over the course of the last week, I mean, we've come all the way back, we've come all the way down and all the way back up again. It's kind of the classic trade war cycle. Of how these things have tended to play out. So yeah, it's, it's gonna be, it's gonna be interesting. Said, I kind of agree with your assumption, uh, in that respect. Uh, you could be in for some downside to price in a renewed risk before the inevitable relief comes, when I still think base case, the, the December tariffs get, get delayed. Not taken off the table, delayed. I do think my view is that the Phase 1 trade deal, um, it's going to get rolled over until really a more definitive decision is going to happen in Q1 of 2020. All right, I'm going to wrap it there. I'm going to end the live coverage on, on YouTube. I'm going to go back to Trading Live, which is our community for our traders. So check that out as well if you, if you get a second. I'll get Sam to put the Trading Live link in. Into the chat. I'm going to end this now. The recording will be available on our YouTube channel. Don't forget to subscribe, and thank you very much for joining us. So yeah, Albert, thank you from Sydney. I hope you're enjoying the hot sunshine. It's miserable here in London, unfortunately. Jenny, thank you for your love hearts on my video every day. Much appreciated. Ian, Ed, always a pleasure, and good luck for the rest of the session. Thanks very much.