**LIVE** US Non-Farm Payrolls - 6th August 2021

Okay, hi folks, just switching on the live feed, so gonna give it a few minutes, make sure everyone is up and running. Able to hear me, but happy Friday. Hope you're good. Hope you're ready for payrolls. And as per usual, I'll be doing the full in-depth rundown momentarily, but just going to give it a couple of minutes, let everyone get up and running before we get stuck into the preview. Okay, cool. Just, uh, just welcoming people on board. There's a couple of different places that are actually tuning in from a few different things that we're doing Amplify at the moment, so I've just shared the link around. So yeah, hope everyone's well. Drop a comment in the chat, let us know where you're from. Sandeep tuning in from India. Good to have you with us. Jenny, Jenny, where— what country are you in again? Remind me. I know you, you, you kindly always watch the YouTube briefings, so I very much appreciate that. Yeah, let us know when you join where you're tuning in from. We'll have a couple minutes before we kick off formally for, for the event today, so Yeah, just, just onboarding at the minute. And then we'll get into the full swing of things and we'll start talking about payrolls. We'll talk about what can we expect, how the market might react. We'll run through some of the charts. We got plenty of time, got 20 minutes or so till the data hits. Our friends at News Squawk will then deliver the news as it happens, so we'll tune in, um, and listen to them just for the numbers as they come out. And then I'll go through and analyze myself and Hopefully this can be useful from a trade perspective, but also from an educational perspective to just see how we would go about understanding the types of reaction function from something like this, a fixed major news-driven event. So yeah, cool. Fabio, Germany, Munich, great. James, Oslo, Spain, Ecuador, amazing. Philippines. Hey, Mark. Wow, what time is it? What time are we on in the Philippines right now? Appreciate you, um, giving up your evening. Uh, got Saad in Abu Dhabi. Hey. Yeah, amazing. The, the joy of, uh, of delivering this on this platform, of course, people from all over the world. So fantastic. Appreciate you joining us. Um, as I said, if you just joined us, I'm going to kick off in literally Next couple of minutes, people just getting on board at the moment. So drop me a comment in the YouTube chat and just let me know, say hi, let me know where you're from. And then once I can see most people are in, we'll kick off. Malaysia, Namibia, Israel, Belgium. Wow. Sydney, Maisie, great, thank you for joining us. What time are we on in Sydney right now? Alexandros is asking questions. Is there a book you can recommend on government treasuries and auctions? Not so much of a book, I would say, but there is a great website that has a really good explainer. For this type of thing. And so let me quickly grab the link and I'll share it in that YouTube chat. So bear with me. There's, there's definitely nuance between interpretation of a US government bond auction to a European bond auction, so you definitely need to be aware of that. And if you follow that link, hopefully it— you're able to click on that. Are you able to see that link in the YouTube chat? Hopefully it's clickable. That will make a lot more sense. Piers Curran, head of trading online as well. Hey Piers, Piers, can you see the link that I just posted? Just want to make sure that if I do share any links that they're visible. Hey Khaled, good to have you with us. I'm sure the weather in Kingston hopefully is better than it is in London. Yeah, I'm going to talk about my prediction for NFP in a minute, uh, Ty. So yeah, we'll get into that. Okay, we're going to start in 1 minute's time. Okay, if you can't see the links Let me just quickly change something so I can share the links. So guys, just bear with me one moment because I want to make sure that if you guys, you know, want some resources, stuff like that, that I'm here to help. So I want to be able to share some links and stuff. So let me just try one more thing and hopefully this will work. So the question was someone asked me about how to interpret US government bond auctions. Try that link now. So it should be posted under Amplify. Trading. That's a really good resource, really short, sharp, concise explanation of how to read a government bond auction. So not so much broader treasury market, specifically about government bond auctions. So hopefully you can see that now. All right, well look, let's get straight into payrolls, just conscious of time. So let's get into it. So gonna kick things off and let's have a look at the charts this morning. So as per what is always the case ahead of non-farm payrolls, we have a little bit of downtime as people just sit on their hands and wait for the major jobs report obviously to hit. And Equity index futures still reside— I mean, we're sat pretty much all-time highs here in the S&P 500 going into this release. So yeah, certainly a breakout of a short-term trend line from the last week, seeing a bit of an acceleration into the close on Wall Street last night bumped us up to print those new highs. And then through the European morning, we've just continued to move higher at this, at this present point in time. Nasdaq not quite so bullish in its setup, in fact slight underperformance, and at the moment we're kind of tucked in a bit of a range sandwich between the really the pivot level, which if I just bump this up to here, the morning European low, close proximity to the low we had before the ramp in, in synchronized US equity equities into the closing bell on the NYSE last night. to hit that all-time high. So, um, or that, that recent high. Otherwise, elsewhere, oil was a little bit bullish this morning, um, as I was discussing in the briefing. Well, look, these levels, these technical levels, if you watch the briefing this morning, these are the exact levels I had on in the briefing. You can see the market's responsiveness to that ellipse we had marked up in the discussion from this morning, and the market absolutely reacting to that So yeah, nice technical spot that I thought, thought was quite obvious that the market would pivot. And from a technical perspective, um, you know, if you put on a Fib retracement from the last Friday high, for example, if I just add that on now, um, so what I was looking at in combination with the $70 handle, with the previous points of support on the breakdown of price, then go from last Friday's high to the weekly low, you can see that 382 Fib retracement also came in So 3 good technical signals that led in the briefing to the belief that, you know, on the bullish nature of the price running up, that that would be a good point of exit for any of those guys that were in the long this morning. So yeah, nice to see that play out as per the kind of expectation and plan. Otherwise, yeah, FX markets obviously just waiting for the jobs report really to dictate proceedings for the dollar, to really see how these pairs finish off the week. The DXY is up a little bit. So we'll talk about this in a moment. The pre-positioning is going to be key to determine the type of price reaction we might see because the dollar generally is a little bit firmer and as to yields. And, and as we know, this does come on the back of the coattails of some hawkish comments out of Clarida, really excellent services PMI number that we had, bounce back in the employment constituents. So yeah, somewhat of a belief perhaps then that this number is going to be tilted to the upside. And so anything less than that, perhaps then things like the dollar, um, and T-notes have got room to see a bit of a bounce from that directional play that's materialized over the last 24 hours or so. Um, all right, well, let's, let's talk a little bit about the actual report first, and I'm going to switch over my screens. So This is what I was looking at, and I'm going to talk over this from a relative top level just to make sure everyone's on the same point, and then I'll drill down and talk about some of these individual data points with more, um, with more depth. So going into any jobs report, it's always important to kind of do two things really. For one, look at the economic data that precedes every payroll report, so typically in the week run-up then to the Friday labor report. We get things like ADP on the Wednesday, private payrolls. We get our weekly jobless claims, an update on the 4-week average. We get our ISM PMIs, manufacturing services and employment component. We get things like Challenger Job Cuts, consumer confidence, all these different types of things. Now, these are all effectively inputs to help us understand then potentially what the employment conditions were like and therefore what the general payroll report might look like. And so that helps the market start to kind of preposition itself, as was just discussed, with the likes of the services PMI being so strong. It, it moves then the needle of what we're expecting for today's release. As I said, the kind of recent dollar-yield movement somewhat suggestive of perhaps then the likelihood of a slight upside figure. The other thing then is having a look at the actual detail of these reports. So let's have a look at the previous string of payroll numbers. So the headline today is expected at 870, and it's not that too dissimilar then from what we had last time, which was 850. And we've been on a bit of a pretty progressive trend of incremental improvements in the labor market. And obviously this is one of the main— of two conditions that most of the Fed are looking at to constitute the commencement of normalizing policy, the first step towards that being a more detailed discussion on tapering, which is the reduction of the volume of the $120 billion worth of bonds that they buy each month. Now, the hawks, we've heard from plenty of them this week, you know, your likes of Waller, Kaplan, Bullard, so forth, and they're looking at the idea about the stickiness, elevated nature of inflation, in combination with the fact that despite COVID, um, the economy is moving in the right direction, as things like the ISM, uh, Services PMI would suggest, and the ever-increasing employment situation reopening, further vaccinations, people going back to employment, leisure and hospitality reopening, probably the biggest added benefactor of that. So this is what payrolls has been looking like, but one of the biggest weighted precursors of payrolls is ADP. Now, a lot of people in markets criticize ADP because technically speaking, ADP is private payrolls. It's a nationwide report, and therefore people put quite a lot of weight behind it of it being indicative of generally then what the survey period that would constitute then the government's payroll might look like. But the correlation is not fixed, certainly, and it's not, it's not always accurate. and there often is a bit of a disparity, and you can actually see that here. So, you know, for ADP, forget this last number here for the moment. You can see we've had a bit of a seesaw pattern. So April was 622, we topped in May and reverted back down to a similar number in April, um, in June. Now if we go back to the payroll numbers, this has been the opposite. So whereas ADP has gone up and down, the last report was a big disconnect because ADP was kind of 680 and we were getting up at 850. And so instead of following that general trend that we'd seen before, it undershot 2 months ago— on, uh, overshot, undershot then the last one. So yeah, ADP, as we can see here, came in at 330 on Wednesday. It was well below expectations. That's probably the one singular negative that really stands out. That could well lead some to believe that, look, I'm better off waiting to see this number come out than just going gung-ho thinking that this is just going to be ultimately a strong report. And we'll talk about some of the nuances of the report that are definitely going to be important to look at in the detail of the actual release. Um, so here are the PMIs. This is the PMI for manufacturing that came out earlier in the week. You can see pretty steady, um, well above 50 in expansionary territory, of course. And one of the key subcomponents, that of being employment, rebounded importantly from very minor contraction territory to 52.9. That's a pretty decent swing, and it certainly would be more positive. And so panelists and companies in their supply chains continue to struggle to respond to strong demand, though, due to difficulties in hiring and retaining the labor market. But comments indicate slight improvements in labor. As well as supply deliveries to offset some of these continued problems in the transportation sector. The other thing then on the service side, this was that knockout-the-park figure that we saw that really initiated quite a lot of market movement early in the week, certainly has held a lot of that move in regard to the dollar and yields. And on that side, the employment returned to growth, and in fact, on the services side, it swung back quite, quite sharply, in fact. So these would be catalysts to suggest positive, ADP negative. However, as per my briefing this morning, there's kind of two other elements that I think are very important from a fundamental perspective before we talk about the different products and how they might react. And from a fundamental perspective, um, we could well see a robust report on a technical basis today, and that technical basis is about the shifts in seasonal employment at schools caused by the pandemic, but also as well, there's a particular point about auto manufacturing procedures and about this normal seasonal period of retooling shutdowns. So if you think about something like the oil industry, for example, there's very much a seasonal pattern where they have this operational downtime for maintenance and so forth. The same with auto manufacturing plants. However, as I'll touch upon in a moment, these factors might well have a one-time added benefit for today's report, which might mean then that we get a strong number, but perhaps it's strong based on reasons that are not sustainable. Kind of like the same logic that you have with transitory, where, okay, inflation's hot, but we know it's not going to last forever. This employment report's great, but it's driven by factors that aren't reflective of the underlying employment conditions, which might mean then after a knee-jerk reaction of positivity, it could get faded quite quickly if it becomes evident that a lot of the report is being lifted for these particular technical reasons. So what is this technical reasons? So the Labor Department today, um, what we're looking at is prior to the COVID-19 pandemic is education employment normally declines by about 1 million jobs in July, and that's as schools closed while temporary plant shutdowns for summer retooling weighed on automobile payrolls. So that was during the pandemic. But this year, many students are doing summer school. So as you can imagine, a lot of, you know, it's been very disruptive in terms of the education sector. So summer school's kind of more in action than ever, and that meaning then that they're catching up because of the disruptions caused by the coronavirus. Separately, chip shortages have forced automakers to make changes to their normal production schedules. So this could have an impact on the timing of that temporary retooling shutdown, which could throw off the model that the government uses to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the payrolls data. Analysts have also noted that seasonal factors are also expected to boost artificially because of that leisure and hospitality jobs as well. So for me, there's going to be quite a bit of noise around the quality of the underlying employment situation. So what I'd be very mindful of when this comes out is a very strong number. I will look at the underlying report and I will run through that with you. And what we'll be looking for is beyond any knee-jerk spike that we might see on a positive outcome, how sustainable those moves might be will largely be dictated from where is the underlying growth coming from. So to put this another way, this payroll report to me is very much like trading the CPI releases we've had of late. How much of the CPI is dependent on idiosyncratic pandemic-related reasons? Which are temporary and how much of it is underlying, kind of looking at this jobs report in a similar type of way because of these one-time technical factors. The other big talking point, of course, is a lot of division, it seems on the surface, between Fed officials talking about, you know, the hawks, we need to taper sooner rather than later. But then Mary Daly, Neel Kashkari, the doves kind of saying the opposite. Better to be patient. There's a lot of uncertainties around the economic recovery, COVID, so on. You know, we saw this morning, right, you saw the COVID numbers in the US. They're at a 6-month high. The 7-day average of new reported cases of COVID in America at nearly 95,000 is a 5-fold increase in less than a month. So it's definitely heading, COVID, in the wrong direction. Because of a lack of vaccinated people in certain geographic regions, in certain states in America who've been very reluctant to take up the vaccine, which is contributing to the spread of the virus and subsequent hospitalizations. So there's reasons for debate at the Fed at this point. And this is key, though, for how the market is going to react today. How the market might well react to this report in the immediate sense is what does this mean for tapering? So someone like Waller, I think, was a very good example. I think it was Tuesday night when he spoke, and he said we could do tapering in October. And that's incredibly hawkish on its own because the general timeline was they were going to do— most banks' consensus— the commencement of actual physical QE or tapering of QE in Q1. I'd say the needle's kind of shifted now into the back end of this year in December. But October is super early. And so he said, though, that that view would be conditional on two strong consecutive payroll reports, the first being this one today and the one to come next before then the October period arrives. So a lot of people will look at this then as the kind of almost binary way of a super strong report the hawks are validated, supported in their view, and therefore, given that the vice chair, obviously closely aligned with Powell, has already made some hawkish signals about rate rises and so forth earlier this week, Powell's not far off following suit. The opposite side here, though, is what if we get an ADP downside shock? And think about it. If these technical factors are right and this number today is elevated for technical reasons, well then if the number's bad and that's including those technical factors, well this number's not bad, it's terrible. And at that point that puts to bed any discussion about October tapering and Powell is right to wait at this point. Um, and under that scenario, given the fact that the dollar has rallied for the last 24 hours, adds to his yields, I'd probably be expecting then a strong reversal of that move. If that were to happen, if the dollar came under pressure, your major pairs— EURUSD cable will catch an aggressive bid, um, gold will likely break through its relative double top that it's been trading in the last 12 hours or so in the futures market. And let me just readjust my chart here. So So you've got this kind of level here in gold that's held price action so far. So some pretty obvious upside targets under a more negative outcome payrolls, which puts a bit of an injection of pace in. Okay, Squawk on.

The prior, that supplies to 938. The earnings month to month at 0.4, but expected 0.3. Year on year 4%, but expected 3.8, workweek hours 34.8, unexpected 34.7, the participation rate 61.7%, up from the prior 61.6.

For Canada, so just in case you missed that, 943,000 on the headline, that's 943,000 on the headline, rate 7.5%, expected of 7.4, and the unemployment rate was 5.4%. So I'll turn the squawk off because I'm not sure how clear that came out for you guys. So 943,000 on the headline, the unemployment rate 5.4%, well below expectations. So you got a headline beat and unemployment much lower. So both those are kind of uniform pointing in the same positive directions. So you've got the headline beat, but well within the range. Top end of the range, remember, was 1.6 million. This has come in just a touch above expectations. The unemployment rate, though, is a significant drop. It's gone from 5.9% to 5.4%, which is well below the anticipated decrease of 5.7%. You've also got average hourly earnings 0.4%, 0.1% higher than expected month on month. The year on year, 0.2% higher at 4%. The participation rate, 61.7% against 61.6%. So just having a look at these charts and how they're trading. So on the surface of it, a strong report because uniform in regards to the headlines. The average inflation, the average hourly earnings, everything's pointing in that more initial positive way, contributing then to a dollar spike. So gold going on the inverse to what we were just discussing, a quick flash to the downside. Elsewhere, equities— this is what we tend to see is equities react in a positive fashion initially. What will be interesting now though is does this constitute enough for people to get concerned about the timing on tapering. For me, I don't really think this alters, just on the surface of these numbers, a particularly meaningful contribution to speeding up tapering. I mean, the report on those numbers, the headlines, 9.43, that's not amazing. It's better than expected, but it's not spectacular. And so I can't see how that alone would really shift the timing for what someone like Powell would think. The 2-month net revision was positive, 119,000. So just having a look here, S&P is just act— reacting in the fact that again, it's a beat but well within that range. So it's not shockingly strong, it's just good. And so it's moved in a positive fashion, fresh all-time highs there. Elsewhere, let's have a quick look in the currency market, very choppy. The dollar initially spiking has reversed course. And actually, euro, after blipping lower, has just come back to where it was trading. And you got a very similar uniform moving cable because, again, to be clear, there's nothing to do with euro and sterling. This is all dollar-related volatility that's coming in. So I'm going to put the squawk on and let's see on the underlying report a bit more information.

And just as the dust begins to settle on this report, keep an eye on dynamics within US equity space. So, even the S&P future printed a record high, but just seen a bit of a divergence between the more rate-sensitive NASDAQ and the Russell. NASDAQ down 2 tenths of a percent. Ebony Russell up 7 cents.

Hey, bear with me guys, I'm just gonna get a few more charts up and then I'm gonna run you through a few things that are worth having a look at. So just get this up. All right, so let's just, let's just have a look at, you know, away from the market reaction for a moment. Let's just figure out you know, how does this report actually work in reality? So if you just go on the BLS, the Bureau of Labor Statistics website, you can type in BLS, it will be there. It's on the front homepage now, the latest release. And what's always a really healthy thing to do, you know, if you're a student looking at this, trying to figure out how does this stuff work, is looking at the breakdown. So very much so like you would do in the case of, um, if you were looking at CPI and you wanted to know really what were the transitory kind of factors with it So here I've just typed in school for a keyword find, and they've said there were fewer layoffs at the end of the school year, resulting in job gains after seasonal adjustment. These variations make it more challenging to discern the current employment trends in these educational industries. Since February 2020, employment is down 205,000, local governments, education, so on and so forth. So again, they are making note then about this staffing fluctuation in education due to the pandemic might have distorted normal seasonal buildup and layoff patterns, likely contributing to the job gain in July. So again, if you look at the reaction function here, as we were talking, the knee-jerk reaction is the kind of algo-led Yep, a really deep drop in unemployment, headline beat, the dollar pops, but then the dollar reverses because as we were discussing, how much of that number was lifted by these technical reasons? So when you start to extrapolate out the things like schooling, well, this number doesn't look quite so solid now. And hence the reason why you get a bit of reversal. There's a lack of commitment to the follow-through moves that you see on the initial kind of fast money reaction. I guess the other key area here to look at is the autos. If there's anything there that I can see, I'm going to have a skim now. So I'm just having a quick read. Okay, let's just go back to the charts and have a quick look then. So at the moment, gold's holding that move. So let's have another look at gold and what we got here. It's holding that move down, still remaining a little heavy. The dollar has completely reversed, and the dollar is actually exactly— I'm talking about the Dixie Dollar index back to exactly where it started. Gold though still has a bit of weight. I mean, just having a look here technically, I've got this chart marked up from some previous— this is probably the previous live session that we did, right? So here was payrolls previously here, and this is payrolls now. So if I just add on the text here so you can see it, this is NFP today. So we're just breaking through. I'm looking at a daily chart here, a very key area for gold. You can see this has been a, a multi-week level of support for price. So this would be really important for, for gold to see on the daily close for sure today. If we close beneath here, this could be bearish for price action in regard to the area of 1791 down to around really the low that doesn't really start to come in until we get to around the 1755-60 area down below. So at the moment, just quite key to see that, you know, around those areas on the daily chart, kind of 1790, uh, on a much more shorter time frame. So around this S1 is kind of, kind of quite key here. FX markets, as I said, have reversed. The S&P's come back a bit. The NASDAQ, if anything, is the one that hasn't bought into that as quite nicely because remember the tech stocks tend to benefit through the kind of more lower, longer, so delayment of tapering type of situation because of the fact that they tend to then see rotation out of kind of more growth and into value under the notion of raising rates in time and normalization. So the Nasdaq's not liking it too much, but to be honest, it's a fairly small move. I mean, we've, we've popped down to the S1, but technically speaking, I think you've got a pretty decent area of support down here as well if we do trade even further down, 15,073. But in all honesty, I think that this number, this number for me right now, before we get to really digest it further, just says that the Fed aren't— Powell's not going to change his mind, not yet. This isn't strong enough for the hawks to say, we told you so, when are you joining the club? I think Powell's got enough reason looking at the underlying and the figures on the top to say it's not good enough yet, we need to wait for more information. Don't forget as well, Jackson Hole's happening at the end of the month. And Jackson Hole is key because Jackson Hole is what the market's been tabling, penciling in for some time, and that's what they're looking for, for the timing around more detail. And I think that's still— that timeline remains intact from what we've seen today. Perhaps a further advancement in those discussions, they see one more payroll, and then we have the September SEP, the projections from the Fed, and then we get more formalization of what that looks like for commencement of tapering in December. It's my, my view on, on the timeline at the moment. Okay, all right, in the chat on YouTube, how's everyone doing? Any questions at all? Yeah, so sorry we haven't had bigger moves. Um, I just report the news, I don't, um Unfortunately, I don't create it. Sam North, I just saw Sam North in the chat, the famous podcast extraordinaire. If you haven't listened to Sam North's podcast, check it out, it's definitely worth a listen. Really great episode that they, uh, he and his team did at eToro, uh, just the other day. Um, Sam What's the name of your podcast? I can't remember now. If you want to, if you want to put it in the chat. Um, also as well, don't forget to check out the Amplify podcast. That of course is coming out. Piers and I, the head of trading, we're having a chat later on tonight, which we'll put out then tomorrow as the latest podcast episode. And we'll talk about this payrolls once you've had a bit of time to chew it over and and we'll talk about the week as a whole. There's been plenty of stuff to talk about. You can talk about— it's all good in the hood with Robin Hood, so quite happy to talk about that as well on the pod. Um, and for you guys, actually, how many of you listen to the podcast? If you're tuned in at the moment, does anyone listen to the podcast? Be good to get some feedback. Let us know what you'd like us to discuss. It's still open So if anyone wants me and Piers to talk about anything specific in the podcast this evening, just get your, um, get your suggestions in. All right, let's go back to the charts. Another look at gold here. So gold now just seeing more definitive break. So you see that on the daily chart, what a key area this is for gold, and now we're breaking down through that. There's plenty of clear air here for gold. Now one thing I would look at as a first target is as we run lower here, I'd look to book some if you're in that short on the initial break of those lows at around the 1774.5 level. If I just remove this here for a minute, you can see then that was a key area here of resistance and support via the price action of late June, early July. So your first target would be here. There's a secondary target to run further on some momentum lower down. So the dollar just picking up a little bit of pace now. So after flatlining, starting to see a bit of a secondary push now in the greenback, and that's weighing on EURUSD. So let's have a look. EURUSD, another push on the downside. We'll change the time frame to a 60-minute. You've got these previous lows that would be probably your next targets down at these types of levels. So coming in around 1.1782, I'm looking at the euro future here, um, at the moment. Cable showing some resolve for the time being, uh, it's not really budging. So I definitely wouldn't really look at cable. You're getting a much more clearer expression of the move in euro at the moment. Gold still heavy, fresh lows again for gold. So yeah, I think gold, you've got a bit of room here, 74. That would be my target on that daily look, bringing it down on the time frame. So if you start to see— when you start to see this type of movement in gold, it's a very volatile product, you get the wave of offers come in. And you know, if you have a direct market access and you can see the order flow coming in you can almost feel the pulse— pulses of the market flow coming in, and you might get a quick shot at trying to exit, um, at around those exact lows, but could be quite fleeting as a lot of people will be looking at the same technical points to be able to exit that trade. So yeah, a bit of a further extension there in gold on that latest move. T-notes Yeah, you can see that area that we were looking at, so those previous supportive points from the second half of last week, or through last week in fact, and that S1 did initially break down through there. We're still holding at that level, sat on the S2 at the minute. Pretty contained overall though for that move, but I think that's in large a reflection of this readjustment of yields that we've seen since Clarida ISM on Wednesday. So as I was saying, the market had already readjusted for a potential upside figure for those reasons. So the actual payoff then of a better report here is fairly marginal at the margin. Okay, let's have a look at any of the questions you guys have got on YouTube. Um, Have I got any open dollar positions? Me? No. The guys who are trading? Yes. So, you know, for these types of events, you know, I have to be fully locked in and engaged, watching quite a few different things, and there's no time for me. I'll let the traders do their thing, and hopefully, um, working collaboratively, we can, we can max out me seeing things, interpreting things, and then executing things is how how the team operates. Um, Ikky wants a topic. I would suggest, are big banks always manipulating the market? We might have to run that by our institutional clients at Amplify before we have that discussion, so I'm probably gonna have to duck that one for those reasons. Um, let's have a look. Yeah, Dollar CAD. Sure, I can have a look at CADUSD. I mean, there was CAD data, of course, that came out. The CAD employment change was 94,000 below the expected 177.5. So on that basis, you had a lower than expected employment number but a better than expected US one. Well, let's see who won out in the battle of CADUSD. So yeah, a little bit of upside movement being seen. So as you would imagine then, dollar appreciation, CAD weakness on the back of the data. This is a bit more of an easier divergence where one country's data is clearly worse, one is better, and you get a bit more of a uniformity to the actual reaction, which is positive. So here now, as dollar CAD starts to, to edge a little higher um, just using these previous reference points really to see that the trade would probably— in terms of your execution of it, if you were in long, you'd be looking at these points here. And then you've got obviously the R1, which coincides with around these tops that we were seeing here overnight in last night's session. So these would be the areas where you'd be looking to take some of the trade and come out of it as it develops. The ultimate one at the top here with these previous highs is also the R1 on the daily pivots in the futures. So, you know, in these fast money moves, it's very usually much more prudent to be quite agile, be flexible, to book the trade as it develops rather than just sit there thinking, right, yeah, I'm just gonna, gonna sit, ride it out for a big ambitious target in a day trading environment. Because as you've seen with the whipsaw reactions in the euro it spiked, um, it spiked down, came all the way back, and now it's pushed down. So you've got to be looking to, to be quite proactive in the management of the trade during these high volatility periods. Um, NASDAQ just having a bite at the lows. Gold session lows getting close to that technical support we were eyeing. So NASDAQ future now down to its S1. Bit of room here, I'd say, for the NASDAQ until we really get down. There you go, another bit of weight coming into the NASDAQ there. You see that just through the S1, little leg lower. So yeah, there you go, NASDAQ again, another hit on the downside. So you can feel almost like the pulse. I mean, if I, if I try and bring a ladder up for one second, I don't know if I can jump it out here out of window. So, um, ENQ. So I've got the, the NASDAQ ladder up on my screen now and what you can see is just the, the speed of which the ladder is moving. And as it does, just the type of momentum that you see. So yeah, go another, another push. It tends to be quite in a kind of wave pattern almost. And so here I'd fully expect this NASDAQ to come down to have a little look at these lows now, down at that level of support that we had eyed. It might not get there. You'll get a lot of the fast money people just looking to hit this market short and try to make some, a few ticks, just trying to ride it down. And then people will start to bail and you'll have some good support around here, at least the initial test, I would suggest. So just keeping a close eye on that NASDAQ at the minute. Yeah, EURUSD, let's just quickly bring that into screen. So EURUSD on those lows, so that was that level we had marked up on the 60-minute. So remember, just going back on the chart to here, this is what we were just looking at a moment ago. So that's a good level as well, I would say, in this initial aftermath to at least take some of that trade off if you were short, to manage it, because that's your— that's a decent target for any shorts that were initiated. Nasdaq just having a bit of a letup now in some of that speed of movement. As too is gold. Gold on those technical levels, you can see starting to see a bit of a floor come in. So now with that Nasdaq move, that Nasdaq conviction starts to become less because now in other asset classes, you're starting to see a bit of a floor to price. To have a higher, greater conviction that NASDAQ's going to still come lower, I'd want to see gold also pushing lower. Now the euro move is playing in tune with that. So at the moment, dollar strength is still prevailing. So it's interesting to see how gold starts to react to that. But the one point is you've got an area of support here for the euro. You've had a bit of a turn here in gold, and these would be anti then the belief that the NASDAQ's going to trade heavy still. So this is just looking at the subsequent momentum and price pattern in other instruments to dictate then the overall kind of cross-asset moves to the timing of the product that you're trading. So that type of thing takes a bit of time to really get your head around if you're new to looking at that type of stuff. But obviously is definitely very beneficial once you can master it. Yeah, S&P back to scratch, pretty much where it was, and T-notes just dying down a bit. So that gold, you know, seeing a decent turn now. Yeah, and as that gold was turning, euro to the— within that zone of that area we're looking at finding a floor and starting to see a bit of a bounce back up. Yeah, so it was almost like gold was the pre-indicator then of that move getting a bit exhausted on the shorts. Eurodollar, NASDAQ, and gold— you want to see the synchronized progression of those moves across those assets to think then that there's sustainability to the downside. And when that gold flipped, the conviction rate decreased, and then you're seeing the technical support levels also play out as well. Yeah, Bilal saying, you know, why was ADP so wrong? Yeah, this is why, as I was saying in the rundown, this is why people's, people's confidence in ADP to be an accurate precursor is, you know, it gets almost like, it's almost like a joke in a way to those in markets when people say that because Technically it is, probably from a data set over the long run, it probably is correlated, but in the short term it sees large fluctuations. I think as well you're seeing much greater degree of misses consensus during a pandemic recovery period because a lot of these data measurements are just harder to nail down, and hence the reason why analyst forecasts can be quite off the mark. In the context of the current economic climate at the moment. Um, someone's saying, can we short the DAX? Let's have a look at the DAX. I mean, can you short the DAX? You can, you can do whatever you want. Um, yeah, yeah, would you want to short the DAX here? You can see, you know, the DAX isn't really the instrument I would be looking at in the aftermath of such an event. And so yeah, there's a bit of whipsaw price action. It hasn't really done anything, you know. This is a US-centric data release. The DAX would move if the subsequent movement in US indices was heavy, i.e., all three indices— Dow, NASDAQ, and the S&P— all started to come under pressure. You would see a big sell-off. But here at the moment, you're seeing divergence. You've got, um, the Dow here in the left, the Dow has rallied, the Nasdaq has sold off. It's that classic kind of rotation that you tend to see on US Wall Street closes each day. You know, when people freak out about COVID the tech outperform, the industrials underperform. In this case, the employment situation is picking up and therefore constitutes more healthier economic recovery, so the industrials perform better, those tied to the developments of the economic activity, whereas the tech firms, growth firms start to pull back. But all of these moves are fairly moderate, so I wouldn't overanalyze that, albeit that that is the technical explanation of the divergence between the Dow's gains and NASDAQ's losses, if that makes sense. Uh, Sean, good question. Can we talk about the difference between trading London, New York, and Asian sessions? How you gauge sentiment or changes in sentiment? Yeah, I actually deliver a lecture about that exact thing. So, you know, one of the things is Amplify you know, we've got some really exciting news that we're gonna let everyone know in the coming weeks. But the end result being is that there's quite a few things that we are going to be putting on the channel that we've never done before, which is, you know, when— so when there's questions like yours, Sean, rather than it all being under lock and key, hopefully that's the sort of stuff that I can just do a video on and we can put out there and and obviously you can leave questions and things like that on the comments and I can answer. So yeah, it's going to be happening in a few weeks' time. Just while we're here, while we're online, a couple of things just to say, and that is, yeah, the podcast I've talked about. You recognize someone? So if you just go on Apple Podcasts, This is basically an end of week wrap where I talk to the head of trading, Piers. We had a really great chat last week. I don't know if many of you managed to catch it just yet, but Piers had a really good angle about why he thinks the future of China is not so assured that it will become this dominating global number one superpower. And we touched on all the tech earnings, which is obviously a main focal point of last week. So check that out. It's on Apple. Or on Spotify. If you just subscribe, follow, so forth, you'll get an alert. We're going to put an episode out over the weekend. Feel free to follow me on Twitter. So I put out a morning call every morning very early, prior to 7 AM in the morning. Um, you know, just like with payrolls just now, there's stuff that I tweet. So I was just tweeting about the, the staff fluctuations and education and payrolls, but You know, I put out graphics, stuff like that, on a daily basis that you might find useful. So feel free to check that out. Feel free to as well, you know, fire me any questions, things like that, on Twitter. I'll share my handle. Happy to help if I can. All right, any other questions, guys, while we are here? Feel free to let me know. Otherwise, I'm going to look to wrap the session shortly. Um, anyone from Team Amplify have any questions at all? Okay, let's have a look what we got. Um, okay. Hi, and does Amplify offer macro theme context? Yeah, I mean, the plan of action is going to be, um, in a few weeks' time, Eddie, Eddie Donmez, who's my colleague, um, Eddie covers a different part of the market to me, so he's very much, much more focused on kind of single stock commentary, and we're going to be putting out quite a bit more on that side. Um, in the next month or so going forward. And we're also going to be talking a little bit more about kind of M&A deals and things of that nature. But I'm the one who would do, as well as Piers, the global macro kind of overlay. So yeah, Margaret, for sure, if you just subscribe to the channel, there's plenty of content. I do a morning briefing that goes out early in the morning, European open, that basically is aggregating all the major news, talking about the themes and the outlook for the day ahead. So feel free to always drop me any comments on those videos if I can help in any way on any macro questions. Um, Sam North is asking me one question: who is the greatest, greatest of all time male tennis— what, in the tennis world? Well, my analyst answer would be Novak Djokovic will soon be the greatest player of all time when he wins way more Grand Slams than Federer and Nadal. But who is the greatest? I'm afraid, Sam, it's still Roger Federer. Um, okay. Yeah, any insight into NatGas? I'm afraid, um, Taki Shah, I don't, I don't really cover NatGas, and so it's not something I look at. So I'm gonna avoid any commentary about a product that I don't really know a great deal about. Well, I mean, I can look at it from a technical perspective, but the fundamentals I don't really follow day to day. And the types of assets that I look at, I look at most kind of G10 currencies, the major US, European, UK indices, major fixed income, 10-year futures, so gilts, bunds, T-notes, WTI, copper, crude. These are the types of products that I typically look at. Okay, quick look back at the charts just to wrap up. Yeah, keep an eye on gold. Gold is now testing that key area that we were looking at. So on those daily charts, that was that midpoint, $1,774. There you go, gold, $4 drop, straight line, just went on the, on the daily through that area. And so yeah, a bit of room here for gold perhaps to just stretch its legs a little now. And make its way down a little bit more heavy towards potentially, you know, technically there's a bit of room here. You've got that previous low that was printed on the 1st of July that would come in at around $1,766 on the gold futures on the daily. So yeah, just keep an eye on gold at this moment in time. It's quite a key area of support that if it breaks, could trade a little bit more heavy quite quickly. So yeah, any breakthrough of this, this kind of support area, $73, $74, I'd be expecting the price to come down another $3 or $4 if that materializes. Yeah, the currencies though found a bit of a floor for the moment, so The appetite for gold to break that level, it could happen, but it looks lesser likely right now. And my rationale for saying that is that the dollar bid has dissipated. Euro has found a bit of a floor. So I'm kind of watching the dollar for cues here. But look, just as I'm speaking, the dollar's come back up again. So euro's just a little bit of an edge lower there in the euro. So I would keep a good eye on gold now because the dollar's just flicked back up to session highs again. And that will help keep a bit of pressure in that inverse relationship on the price of gold. And if we break through here, gold could then trade quite quickly a little bit lower, given how the product tends to react. So I'm going to switch over my ladder so you can see the kind of pace on the ladder as we go through. So this is GCE, the gold future. Let's keep it up here just as we're on these levels now. And, and as we're watching it, you're just watching the, the size of orders on the offer. You can see they're stacking up. You can see it's flirting with those lows now. You got 20, 21, 73.5. Here, so still trading a little lower. Session lows again now in gold. Yeah, dollar fresh highs now. So let's see, let's see if gold now can make a bit of headway again on the downside now with another round of some dollar bids coming in. Yeah, I just saw a big buy order come in there. Yeah, another big one. Yeah, quite a few buyers coming in there lifting it at around that same technical area, 73. So you can see that, that price just flicking back up. There was a couple of orders that came in at 38, 40 plus size, 55 buyer there, 74.5. So yeah, pretty decent bounce there. So it seems like there's some good protection just looking to protect that downside. Yes, a decent buying interest just coming in off the low. All right guys, I'm gonna wrap it up there for the live stream unless Piers, um, Saif, Alex, who are managing some of the other groups, let me know if that's appropriate. Otherwise, I'm happy to keep going if necessary. Guys, let me know. All right, cool. I'll wrap it up there. As I said earlier, feel free to connect with me on LinkedIn, on Twitter. If there's any questions at all, just drop me a DM or just tweet me openly. If there's any questions, happy to help. In my Twitter, you'll find the link to the podcast as well. Really appreciate if you check that out. You know, Piers and I have been doing it for a couple of months now, got some good traction, and hopefully you'll find it interesting and useful. But thanks very much if you joined us live, appreciate it. I hope it was useful. And yeah, I'll see you for plenty more live sessions in the future. So if you're watching on YouTube, don't forget to subscribe if you're new to the channel. I really appreciate it. And, uh, have a fantastic weekend. All right, take care everyone. Thanks for tuning in. Yeah, Kevin, Fabio, Boris, Antonio, thanks very much, guys. Have a great weekend.