LIVE US Non-Farm Payrolls - 7th February 2020

Okay, just testing out the mic. So just gone live now. Just everyone let me know with a Y in the chat if you can hear. So Chen, Scott, Charlie, Alex, I can see you in the chat. Just let me know whether we're broadcasting okay, you can see and hear everything before we get going. Yenny joining us from Indonesia. Hello, thank you for your comments every day.

Anthony appreciates it a lot.

Yeah, can I just get a "why" in the chat though? Can everyone hear me first? Okay, good. Well, look, let's get cracking. And as you can see, I've got Sam with me. I'll move over in a second when he comes on, does his part. Um, but usual routine, so I'm going to talk about just a general setup on the fundamental side. What are my views in terms of how can we better, more accurately anticipate what it is that we're expecting today? And then Sam can come on and look at some of the charts from a more technical perspective, and perhaps then how to implement potential trades across different asset classes should there be a bullish, bearish type scenarios. So starting off with things, you can see on my screen here, actually, I've got a, a picture of the French industrial production figure, and that came out early this morning. And as you can see here, actually, if I just tell you about what the timeline on the axis and the bottom is, you can see this is 2010 on the far left, goes all the way up to 2020 where we are now. So this is quite a long high time frame. But the point I wanted to make here was that you can see this data this morning was particularly weak. We also had from Germany, uh, the German industrial production, um, was also very weak, big miss on expectations. And as you can see here, the worst in fact that we've had, you've got to go all the way back to the financial crisis. Now why am I pointing this out? Well, I think it's quite important when we just flip over to the charts, when we look at EURUSD. Now I know Sam's going to look at the euro in a lot more detail, but from a a fundamental point of view, definitely acting as a nice catalyst for the break of the prior day's low here. But also when you start looking on the daily chart, you also had the break of the level from the 29th of November. So a really important point. We had a run down, but you can almost see here now people, I guess, in the intraday environment just bailing on those shorts, not wanting to have an open position ahead of the jobs report. And the market naturally has come back exactly to the point of the actual break. And you can see here the market just respecting that for the moment, and likely to be the case now until the numbers hit and we get a bit more dollar-led then movement. But it's interesting because the other thing I wanted to, to show you, and I'm sure Sam will also bring this into play, but this is the dollar index. And I think, you know, I was having a chat with some of the the traders on our, our training program at the moment, and I was talking about market positioning, which is a very pivotal thing to understand when it comes to then trying to fathom how markets might react when news or information comes out. Now, one thing I thought was quite interesting is that, to give you an idea, when I'm looking at the Dollar Index futures here, and to give you a context of the time frame, 2020 is basically where my mouse is here, going right. Now what I'm actually looking at here is the 3rd, so the 3rd of February is here, which is Monday. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. So if I put my crosshair cursor here, 97.18, we've basically seen a continuous, consistent appreciation of the dollar. So the US dollar has gone up and up and up. Where has it stopped? Well, you can see right here it's finding a natural point of resistance up and around that area in late November. So again, kind of mapping similar price action on the reverse to what we were just looking at in the EURUSD pair. But this is a really quite interesting for two reasons. For one, actually, here, if you think about it, think about the data we've had this week, and starting off with our main, you know, exhibit one, which is ADP employment change. And this is the one that people who often say is the, the best precursor for non-farm payrolls. and it was an absolute, you know, spectacular reading. It was in fact the best since May of 2015. It came in at 291,000 above the expected 156,000. So, you know, that's an awesome reading and way smashing the most optimistic estimate on the street. But obviously, to try and ascertain then what the overall jobs report is going to look like, we've got to look a little bit beyond just ADP. But the point being is that data this week has been pretty great. I mean, ISM manufacturing on Monday moved back into expansion for the first time in 6 months. And that, you know, that was a real worry at one point, was the contraction of the manufacturing activity in the US. That turned. ISM non-manufacturing just a little beat. But you've had factory orders in the US also exceed expectations. And so with all of this, the main point I want to say is, other than the technical levels to watch here, the second point is the dollar now in my mind is expecting, it's wanting, it's prepared for a good number. So anything other than a really good headline reading, um, would probably mean then that this dollar is ripe for potentially a bit of a pullback. So Yeah, I think you need to bear that in mind that the pre-positioning is something you do need to contemplate for that degree. I think now an inline number, you might get a negative response in the dollar given people's appetite now or expectation that we're going to get a strong print. The other numbers, just a quick run through. I did cover this in the briefing, but if you missed that, just as an overview, what we typically do is to try to form a more accurate opinion about the employment situation over the survey period. Month of which this data is representing is by looking at other job indicators or other, um, economic data for the US that involves an employment constituent like ISM Non-Manufacturing or Manufacturing. Uh, on those two numbers, the Manufacturing side, the employment subcomponent actually, um, went up from the prior month, albeit still below 50. So it does mean it's still in contraction. Despite that headline reading moving back above that key level. The actual employment sub-index though in the non-manufacturing actually worsened a touch, moved from 54.8 to 53.1. Now that would be a slight negative. Also a slight negative, corporate layoffs were also reported to have been higher and in fact almost doubling over the period of January. However, following suit with the ADP Um, we have had a couple of other good performing numbers. Unemployment benefit filings are now their lowest since April. If you go down to the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, that went back to the positive track with 3-point increase in January. Consumers' moods being quite optimistic. Labor differentials, which shows the share of consumers who say jobs are plentiful exceeds those who say they're hard to get is near the highest in 20 years. And then, of course, ADP, which, if all things, probably has the greatest weighting in terms of preparing people for their expectations, more broadly speaking. So, yeah, from my point of view, I would say on the balance, people are going to be expecting a pretty overall decent report. Remember, though, if we flip over here to the actual numbers, You know, all I can say from a trade execution point of view is everything that we've talked about there would give us a better idea of what is this figure going to be, the headline change in non-farm payrolls. But the key to trading payrolls is, well, if you're new to trading this type of event, it's don't get too absorbed by just the moment and being impulsive. You have to remain disciplined It is going to be a high-flux situation of price movement. If you have an audio squawk box, which we'll be playing live commenting on the numbers, there's a lot of noise, a little action going on, and you know, you've got to remain in control in that situation. Now, the point being here is it's not just one number. You've also got to look out for the unemployment rate that is expected to remain down at around these record low levels of 3.5%. You've then got to look out for the revision to the previous non-farm payrolls. So just to remind you of what that is, the previous reading was 145,000. So potentially what you'd be looking for is, in these metrics alone, is if we had a very high market-beating headline with a low unemployment rate with an upward revision on the previous, coupled with finally a higher-than-expected average hourly earnings number and that's what you would need then to get that real, um, kind of overwhelming positive response that this is a strong report in its initial interpretation. So in that sense, a little bit of perhaps of dollar strength, higher yields, gold might get hit under those— that situation. But as I said, the likelihood is, and the way payrolls can often work, is you get quite counterintuitive numbers, i.e. A high number of jobs created, but perhaps average hourly earnings not following through, and therefore you can get that mixed choppy movement. So usually the best course of action is, unless you get that, I guess, setup A, which is all numbers aligned in a very positive fashion, or setup B, negative fashion, to play out a trade in a bullish or bearish way, then actually Perhaps then better to stay out, could be the first few minutes at least, let the dust settle on that initial move, and then the prevailing trend might materialize as the report is digested. The more mixed the numbers, the longer that period generally takes. But there's no rush is the point with these things. All right, I think that's all I need to say on my side. I think it's more interesting really what Sam has to say, so let me just swap seats with him. and then we'll cover it both together. Thanks very much. Let me just switch over to the charts. One second.

Musical chairs. Uh, let's have a quick look over. I think the, the dollar is obviously where we'll start off, and, and with the, the most traded currency pair, EUR/USD, we might as well bring that into the mix now. And you can see yesterday's low, we did get a little push through there. And now you're just getting a bit of an unwind of that. Only 19, 18 minutes away from the release, you know, this is the, the period where you want to be in absolutely no dollar-related positions at all. There's no reason to, to want to get in. Uh, what will happen now will be unusual. You have people unwinding trades that they've been in for the day or the week, uh, so far. And, uh, you're likely to see that choppy price action come through. If we have a look at the, that euro in that longer time frame, you can see what we've had here is, is a break of, uh, this trend here, uh, and also on the weekly as well, where it levels not seen for quite some time. It'd be interesting to see what happens. I think if we continue to push lower, and that comes from a strong payrolls, uh, reading overall, and whether the market wants to have a go perhaps next week if we finish lower, of course, or filling the, the Macron gap You've got that area from April 2017 where on the weekend we gapped higher and we never filled it, where Macron in the first round looked like it was nailed on, they were going to beat Le Pen. So that's something I'd be eyeing up if I was a euro-dollar trader if we have another strong push lower. Having a look more intraday, a couple of areas to, to be aware of. You can see where we started to put push lower. And this is just on a 15-minute time frame now, but just where we started to push lower around the, the 110 handle on the futures, you'd expect some sort of resistance around there should we have no change or we just drift high, uh, higher slowly. So that'd be a point where I'd, I'd be having marks up along with yesterday's lows, which we was finding a lot of support around. The buyers really were taking over all morning until pretty much 2:30, 245. So that area there around 110.18, 20 would be my next point as well. Obviously I've got the pivots on here, uh, as you can see. And then above there, and again it's more of a zone around 110.40, those would be my key horizontal resistance levels that I would still like, along with some confirmation, to get short again, uh, if we are to look for that. That can, uh confirmation of a push lower. You know, these are levels we haven't been trading at for quite some time. And you can see if I just bring in the weekly time frame again, you know, no harm in having this whole area marked up as well and on your charts. Obviously I'm not expecting us to, to gap all the— push all the way down to the, uh, that level on the euro, 1.0804. But certainly, uh, over the coming weeks that could be a possibility. Anthony. Just having a look here, you can see— well, if I go back to, uh, those levels that I have marked up, you can see any other given circumstance, this would be a point where people would have looked to have got short. Technically a nice setup. We found nice resistance there earlier, but because of Non-Farm in 15 minutes, that's, you know, why this market is pushing higher. People coming out of trades they've been in, and the dollar itself is actually just winding off a bit. Having a quick look over other markets that are going to be affected by this release. Gold. So if we had to see that strong number that's perhaps expected and more, you'd expect gold to come under some, some pressure. A lot of, uh, support, decent price action around this area, 1566, let's just call it, with the pivot. You've got the high that we had back on Tuesday, the lows of Wednesday afternoon, the low of this morning. If you you want a line in the sand, that's as good as it comes for a potential area where the bulls and bears are going to battle it out. So if we are to have a strong number and a break of their levels to be aware of, well, I'd have marked up here previous high of yesterday morning around 1564.3. So just be aware of a break below there, doesn't necessarily mean it's going to go straight down in a straight line. Also just before the S1s around 1560, I quite like that point before we would get to yesterday's low. And of course this area, and again it's a zone for me, uh, around $1553.50 for, for gold. To the upside, just be aware as well, if we do push on, you've got a bit of a trend line in play there, really nicely respected once, twice, three times. So if we were to have a weaker number, uh, or weaker push, uh, or stronger push higher, I should say, in gold, just be aware of, of that potential trend line above there. You got the highs that we had from the afternoon of the, the 4th, so more towards the beginning of the week, and quite a lot of resistance at that point. Gold's a tricky one, I think, no longer term predicting where this is going to go. It's been so resilient this year, but also each push has been met with a rejection. Also coming in just above where we're trading is this trend line that started on the 14th of Jan. We then had a breakthrough on Monday we haven't quite retested that level just yet. So make sure you get your trend lines on there nicely. That would be coming in just above there and the R1 and that level here. So of the 1475, uh, and maybe a bit underneath it, it's massive. So keep an eye, uh, on that, uh, as well, guys. Uh, above there, you know, this would be on the case that it is a poor number. Just keep a watch on this resistance point around here. And again, mark that up beforehand as well. Bonds looking for, um, you know, the same correlation here as you would see on gold and EUR/USD. Stronger number would see this come lower. And you can see over the last few trading sessions we've been trending nicely. If you like trend lines, you won't get one much better than that. Euro has obviously got a couple in there, gold as well, as we just saw. But here on T-notes, the low from yesterday low of yesterday's afternoon and low this morning, uh, around 7 o'clock. You know, that could well be a nice opportunity to get in on the break of that to target these lower points as well. This morning we've seen correlation-wise more of a risk-on, risk-off correlation. You can see, so bonds are pushing, uh, higher in the morning. We've just been coming lower, uh, while stocks have been doing the opposite. We're now likely to see a more monetary policy correlation. So this almost throw that previous one out the window and expect to see perhaps bonds and equities move in a similar direction. But here for T-notes, just be looking at potential for that, you know, bearish move if we were to come below here and then above that high of the day. You can see why that's quite important, was also a point where we broke down at the beginning of the week, also where gold had that push lower. So Gold and T-notes likely to be very correlated here along with the EUR/USD on your charts. Another couple levels above and below to keep a watch on. I'll be interested here to see if we do have a strong dollar where this goes. Market that will probably be more tricky to trade, uh, S&P here. You can see unbelievably— let's put this on the 240-minute— up near all-time highs printed yesterday early hours. Um, if World War III doesn't kill it and nor does the coronavirus, what will? Um, a strong jobs number. Well, this isn't 2018 February, so I doubt it. But let's have a quick look here, more intraday at a couple of levels. Gonna put this on 15-minute. I think it's worth having— and this isn't a trend line yet, but just a potential one where you could find some resistance. And you know what, actually it is a trend trend line, because you can see we've got a few tests this morning from the all-time high. That would look to come in, if it was to come in anytime soon, around 3345. We're also just finding a bit of support this morning if we draw that up on the level that we saw on the evening of the 5th. Why was that important? Well, it was also a retest of a trend line, uh, that we had also from the previous all-time high. as well. So S&P, why is it difficult? Um, well, if it's a good number, surely, you know, the economy's doing well, it's buy. But if it's too good, Fed might have to change their stance, become lower. And if it's bad, well, if it's that bad, maybe the Fed are going to have to be dovish and stocks go higher. So in terms of opportunity to trade, currency pair, gold, and T-notes would be the ones that I'd be looking at. The S&P, in truth, I would love it to be a a really bad number and then buy a dip, but we'll have to wait and see. But also worth noting that the big man has been tweeting this week, Donald Trump, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, and is expecting there to be good numbers out of the states. We'll have to wait and see. I see a couple of predictions coming in.

Did he say that just before ADP?

He said it on the Tuesday, I believe.

So before ADP?

Yeah. So the ADP was the Wednesday.

It's great, isn't it?

Yeah, you have to scroll down quite far, I guess, because he's, he's tweet— he's upping the ante on the, on the tweets again. So yeah, let's see what your predictions are in. Erland 199, Jake 225, Razor 180, Cleo 150. So yeah, with that 160 or around that looking to be the expected figure. We've got just under 10 minutes.

Yeah, any, any questions, guys, just let us know, put it in the chat. One thing I just noticed while Sam was talking was, um, you know, if you are— if you don't have access to, say, a professional Bloomberg terminal or Reuters terminal, ICON, anything like that, then probably the easiest resource to use for free investing.com's calendar. It's a very quick calendar in terms of— I think they're, they're plugged into the main API like the news agencies are, and they snap the data pretty much as soon as it comes out. Because we're live broadcasting on YouTube, there is obviously an inherent delay. I think the buffer is relatively large, of about 7-8 seconds at least. So what I suggest is, obviously we are reporting it live, but there is a natural buffer there. So when it comes out, perhaps just have your Investing.com screen up and you'll see that flash first. Then obviously we'll be following up and commenting as it, as it comes out. Also, for those of you who have not been with us before, we have just given our website a bit of a facelift. So Be interested to see what you guys think. So we've kind of rejigged things around a little bit. So yeah, check it out.

Looks good. First time I've seen this, actually.

Thanks, mate.

Was it your work?

Was— no, unfortunately we have people way more skilled in this department than myself. So not my work. Yeah, back to business though. Any questions from you guys? Okay, well, why don't I put one to you, Sam? Yeah, out of those products you've just cycled through them from a technical perspective, yeah, which one would you say looks the most technically sound as to its setup, you know, regardless of whether you're looking for a beat or a miss, but generally it looks quite good in terms of ways to, to get in, have appropriate targets to manage the risk? Like, what looks good if you were to put like a hierarchy of, let's say, assets or products? What's the most one that looks appetizing to the least?

Got you. And Courtney, I completely agree, Dow 30,000 is coming soon. Uh, I like, I like the look of the T-notes here. If we can get a decent number, not too good, because I like the idea that we can break this trend come back to test it. And these circles are the areas I would target on that. So this here, I'm favoring the dollar to be strong. If I would like to see some— or if I were to see some dollar weakness, I like gold to break above this massively important trend line that we broke through. You can see guiding price, we then break down. Now what happens, of course, from a technical point of view, is it should find resistance there if the data is worse. We break above that, I'd like the, the opportunity to get long. And then you can see on my chart I've already got, um, marked up those targets here at 4— uh, 1578 and then up at 1584. So I've got my dollar weak and strong ideas. The euro for me is probably not something I'm too interested in trading short term. If I look, you know, medium term, longer term, it's going down in my opinion. So a push higher, you know, I'd take that with both hands and look to, to get in maybe some failed tests of any of these levels. And I like the idea to go short as they come back down, would be the way I'd be looking for it. But T-notes, really nice setup, good risk-rewards towards these levels. And gold likewise, to the upside, if we can break all of this area of resistance. It's a zone really, and that's how I would be be looking at it from, from that. The indicator I have on the chart here, just responding to a question, is, uh, the, the daily pivot points. I find them pretty useful just as areas of support or resistance, just places on the level, on the market that could be levels, uh, of interest. Mojo, short gold. Well, yeah, if the number's good and it can break the pivot, I think it's got, got room to go for sure. Um, Other questions. If numbers beat expectations, is it fair to say over 6 months US equities look bullish? If these numbers are so good, that's why far— why have markets got a rate cut priced in and not a rate hike for June?

Yeah, let me tell that one. Let's have a quick look. This is the, um, the FedWatch tool obviously that we refer to in our, our briefing. So if you don't already do so, remember to subscribe to our channel. We put our market briefings out every morning. But this is something I look at quite often because we don't trade short-term interest rate futures, but we do look at the short end for indications as to what markets are pricing in. And as you can see here, the next Fed meeting is on the 18th of March, not for a while, but overwhelmingly expected that rates remain as they are. So as Jake, you're saying, if if we go out to June, markets are pricing in, if anything, rates on hold. But then the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut starts to increase from June, right, outward. So go to July, that number picks up again. Go to September, and it— and actually it supersedes it. So we're pricing in a cut, um, by probabilities by September. But I think a couple things here with the current situation I think you're right in a sense of things are— it seems like the US economic picture is picking up. Seems like the biggest tail risk for the global economy, the trade war confrontation, has decreased. Coronavirus is de-escalating as far as markets are concerned. And so at the moment it does look good, and you would think, well, maybe this warrants the Fed stepping it up a little bit, reversing the kind of any dovish tones. But actually, you know, I think what markets are more apprehensive about is once the coronavirus is gone and the Chinese economic dip then is forgotten and their economy bounces back, then it's about more how does this trade war go. Because don't forget, from a Trump point of view, I do think although everyone's quite— we're getting along fine at the moment, I think that if anything, Trump is in a great position right now because the Chinese really don't have any another option. But what I do think will happen though, once China's kind of back to normal, so to speak— I'm talking, say, in 2-3 months' time— the reason for this pricing of a cup perhaps then is down to the fact that Trump is gonna have to put his foot back on the gas, anti-China, anti-competitive, and all this kind of thing, in order to appease his base right in time for the election. That obviously has some ramification for markets in a sense then that people will get— will have to price in the Fed potentially having to deliver more to support things. So that as well. There's some other things obviously ongoing, the, the ending of the, the kind of support in the repo market from the US, the Fed kind of propping things up. Remember, they said they'll continue buying until about April when we last heard from Powell. So removal of an extra additional bit of stimulus as well. And then as you can see is we start to price in the months thereafter with that political timeline. I think that's why the markets are priced as they are at the moment. Yeah, I do think that this China-US situation will go in that traditional cycle, and it's good at the moment almost by default of what's happening in China, but that will soon come, come back again, I think, as a focal point for markets. Right, got about just under 2 minutes. So Sam, just— we might as well just stay like this.

Yeah. So yeah guys, in terms of obviously dealing with that delay, like Ant said, get your own Squawks or Investing.com up and we'll, in the chat, we'll type the number as it comes through just to— if you are just reading it, reading it live, and we'll talk through the charts as they come.

Do you want to make sure the Squawks are Yes. Yeah, so, so we have a squawk box. To be honest, as macro traders, can't do without one. So we use Newsquawk as our squawk, and they've just upgraded their audio service, so quite keen to see the clarity of it.

Now on the non-farm payrolls, again forecast at 160. I'll cover the headline, I'll then move on to the earnings, unemployment rate, revisions, the headline, then labor force participation rate. I'll then move on to the CAD headline, full-time, part-time unemployment rate, wages, then participation rate. We'll then cover the US private manufacturing and government breakdown before covering the birth-death adjustment and the 2-month net, as well as the 2019 payrolls revisions benchmarks.

Also, just a quick word of note, 30 seconds, you've got the Canadian numbers out as well, so just Just be careful, uh, when looking at that.

10 seconds. 225. 225, that's 225 above the expected of 160. For earnings, month-on-month 0 spot 2, year-on-year 3 spots 1, workweek hours 34 spot 3, unemployment rate 3 spot 6 with the headline as a reviser to 147, and then the participation rate, that's a 63 spot 4. For employment change for CAD, that's 34 spot 5. Full-time was 35 spot 7, part-time -1 spot 2. So looking out for the wages, Chanel prints at +4.4%, and then the participation rate at 65.4%.

Okay, just a quick word then. Just be a little bit careful there because you got a headline beat on expectations. However, the unemployment rate has ticked up by 0.1 higher than expected, and the average hourly earnings was a miss on the month-on-month at 0.2 against 0.3, albeit the year-on-year up 0.1 at 3.1. So So hence the reason you had that initial blast move, gold spike lower, and you've seen those other related moves in the US 10-year. However, some of the other metrics not making it an outright great report like the headline might suggest on initial first glance. So that's why you've had a bit of an uncommitted move as far as gold is concerned and T-notes as far. So might take a little bit of time for this to get digested. The revision was pretty minimal, 1.45 to 1.47.

Government revised lower to 5. Earnings year on year revised higher to 3%. And for CAD, employment change has been revised lower to -2.8. Full-time been revised lower to -0.7, with the part-time price to -2.1.

Yeah, worth just keeping on that trend line we drew there in the S&P. You can see hit it pretty much to the, to the tick. And if you're looking to go long S&P, really don't get long unless it closes above there. Uh, T-notes, be interested to see what happens when it comes back to this trend line. But like Ant said, really that data release isn't amazing. And if anything, now I'm not too comfortable looking for a long dollar, certainly short term, without a bit of confirmation. And saying that, the euro has literally right now reverse the whole move. CAD is bringing that into picture because that's pretty good.

Yeah, just while he, uh, Sam's bringing the CAD up, just dollar CAD's seen a lot more of a cleaner move, if anything, because you've got a bit of a mixed bag with payrolls. But Canada, it's just good employment change, 34,500 above the expected 15,000. The unemployment rate, 5.5% below the expected 5.6%. So that's a little bit more clearer perspective. And so you just had a bit of a push up technically, Sam. What, top of that range?

This is, this is where you would take profit on that. And, uh, so just be careful. Don't, you know, if you are late to the party, you know, hold off. Again, look for confirmation above there before you would want to get in before our target in yesterday's high. Let's have a quick look over that euro and T-notes now, just testing that trend line. But I wouldn't feel comfortable getting in short here, to be honest. But, uh, yeah, gold hit that, that zone and it has popped back up and it's, it's where it's trading again. So just to reiterate there, with the number coming in good, fine, you get that spike through. But unemployment rate 3.6, so perhaps looking to, you know, start— we'll get rid of this overall trend which has been fantastically moving to the downside. And then the hourly earnings month on month slightly worse. Revision, a couple better. Overall, you know, if we're going off, it's gonna be a good number. Trump's been tweeting about it all week. You would have wanted a bit more, and the S&P reversed that move there.

Yeah, I mean, that— Sam just made a good point there. That was what we were talking about in the briefing before it came out. Now remember, you know, expectations, the bar was set quite high. Because of how good the data has been, how good ADP was, the headline comes in at the— at 225, and it's like, yeah, it's a beat, but it's not amazing. Certainly not 300K like the ADP was kind of suggesting. And then the other metrics not stacking up. So look, look at gold now actually pushing a little up. Yeah, what's, what's that dollar— the Dixie looking like in the futures?

Uh, yeah, let's have a quick look.

That's probably a bit delayed, isn't it? That's the daily. Yeah, just put it on a shorter time.

Yeah, it's working. Yeah, so there you go. And that's just the advantage of taking a while to digest that data, seeing, you know, if you're, if you're now short the dollar, it's not, not the worst idea, to be completely honest. And it wouldn't surprise me to see gold perhaps testing that trend line later on in the session. S&P though, you know, if we can get lower, I'm buying the dip in the afternoon, I think.

Okay, where are you buying then?

Well, that's a good question. So the two opportunities I'm looking at here would be above that trend. Why? Because it's just been so well respected there that I know the market's looking at it. I'm a buyer above. If I can get an opportunity to buy lower down, and of course cash open is in 55 minutes, is that right? Maybe, uh, I would, you know, be eyeing up 3327 again, uh, but also, I mean, if I could get anywhere near, uh, 3306, you know, I'd bite your hand off for it, um, which, you know, not necessarily completely out of the question, uh, and then the next level really, the, the S1, but Let's have a quick look. Euro just trying to grind higher. You can see where it spiked to last night's low. Interesting to see if we can get a pop above there. T-notes, you can see, look at that. Yeah, that's the advantage of waiting for that data release, and we're pushing higher. Gold.

Keep an eye on euro, it's coming back up to that level again.

And gold nearly on that trend line. So you've got some key levels in play here. Euro on your trend line on the area of support. Gold coming up to all of this resistance level. If you are long gold on the fact that this data release wasn't that great, probably worth seeing how we react around here with the overall target being that trend point there. T-notes as well, just about to hit the R2, but that's a key level. So key resistance coming up, breaks of them all through, you could get a further run. S&P just coming down slightly, but for me later on, I don't mind that. Quick look at the CAD. Yeah, okay, that— I mean, if you ever wanted a, uh, a reason why just to be patient on those levels, you know, 5-minute closes can really be, be nice there, and it would have saved you in this, uh, in this look.

Yeah, so ultimately though, if you, you know, if you think about this from a more top level, just coming out of the, the short time frames for a moment, I mean, what does this number mean for the Fed? So is there going to be an overall bigger prevailing move over the coming week, weeks? No, basically that number does nothing to change a central banker's perception of the US economy, I would say. But look, I'm talking much more medium term there when I make those types of comments. For the moment, uh, it's one of those, isn't it, where it will most likely settle exactly where we began.

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I mean, the classic data release, it's— and it's always useful, I think, you know, with a website like Trading Economics, just have a look at the the, the yearly highs and lows. And if it's contained within that, likelihood is meh, no one's really going to care too much about it.

Yeah, what about the Dow?

So the, yeah, the Dow equities just obviously pushing lower a touch. Let's bring in the Dow here. You can see, look at that spike. Obviously a few orders waiting there. Got to get through all of this point, really the low of the The day is significant because we tested that back on low of the 5th yesterday. You know, unless we were to get a close below there, um, you know, I wouldn't be too confident. But this trend line here, you know, this is like what I'm saying in the S&P. If we can get a dip to buy, I'm loving that. SS2, the, the push that came back down here, you can see if look at that trendline break. This was just gorgeous. And this was obviously with the impeachment news helped push equities higher. So if we can get there, then fine. Do I think we will? Probably not. So one to keep an eye on, but whatever. We'll have a look later.

Okay, so we're just going to wrap things up here because we need to now do a bit of a debrief for our traders internally. For you and Alex and the other guys. So for anyone who—

Why?

—hasn't trained or come to visit us in London, then one of the things you can do is— here is an online e-learning platform we've just released. Just put the link into the chat. Do check it out if you get time. I'm just going to transition my screen. So this is what it looks like. What we've basically done is that all of the A lot of the content that we would traditionally have only done in-house, we've brought basically online, and this is it. So if you want to check it out, there's the link. Basically, if you click on this, click to preview— that's a bit small here— there's a free video. So that's direct from our head of trading, Piers. Talks about our process that all of our traders go through when they initiate any type type of trade. So that one's for free, just click on the preview. If you are interested though in learning, I mean, it's a pretty comprehensive course. It's a professional qualification, it allows you for further development with us in-house in London. Do check that out, like lots of content on there. You can have a skim in your own time and it's a subscription service. All right, cool, that is it. Thanks for joining us. Thanks guys. I think I spend more time with you than I do with my wife.

Yeah, save me. Oh well, I don't have a wife.

All right, thanks very much, guys.

Take care, guys. Have a good weekend. We love you, Anthony Cheung.