LIVE US Non-Farm Payrolls

Okay, testing, one, two. Just putting on the feed live. Hope everyone is doing well, getting ready for the nonfarm payroll preview. Excited to be back on and deliver this live after last month's. Obviously was really super interesting, a big disappointment of course, as you'll remember. So very keen to get back on and discuss what we can expect from later on today. So I'm going to get a couple of screens up myself, so just going to have about 1 or 2 minutes just to get yourself bedded in, and then I'll begin a preview. Obviously I'm going to cover the entire thing live, do my best to analyze it with you guys online as it happens. I'll talk through all the different charts that I have in front of me, and I'll be shifting them into this same screen here to talk about them in a bit more detail as we go through each one. So just going to pull up a few screens myself, so just give me one moment, and then yeah, we'll kick it off in about a minute's time. But good to be online with you guys. Hope everyone's had a good Friday so far and a good week. Hope everyone is still COVID safe and vaccinated, slowly but surely. Getting mine on Wednesday. Okay, hello, hello, those just joining. We're just getting set up and we'll commence the broadcast in 1 minute's time. Just bringing up the chat though. Eddie Wong, Amal the Demo Trader, Pratek. Hope everyone is doing well. Just going to get it visible so I can keep an eye on you guys as well. So great stuff, good to have you with us. All right, um, just so you know, it's obviously me on the live feed. However, I do have my colleagues So I'm just going to change the audio there. Yeah, I've got my colleagues on board. Obviously guys like Will and Piers are going to be trading this event, so they're going to be helping as and when they'll be available in the chat room on the YouTube feed. So look out for those guys. Eddie, Don Mez, you might have seen on various videos with me and on this one of this week's podcasts, he's going to be online as well. As well as some of the other members. So although it's me broadcasting, those other guys are all there beavering away in the background. So yeah, let's get to it then. Let's talk about what can we expect from Nonfarm Payrolls today. And in fact, I would say this is a quite meaningful release, and the main rationale behind that in summary is because two things really. Last month was a real surprise you'll remember we got a real lowball number, 266,000. And if you remember the rundown I was delivering at that time, there was a lot of conversation about expectations of a number well in excess of a million because we were looking at a lot of the data points prior to, um, the kind of buildup to the BLS report, and they were all kind of erring on the side of an upside surprise. And people were even talking about 1.5 million type to be quite, quite a normal number to see. And real downside surprise. And that did kind of alter in some sense then the timing around what's a very much a focal point across asset classes, which is this idea of the discussion on tapering. As we know, inflation pressures are becoming evident, and we're seeing that in various different economic indicators in terms of emerging price pressures And there's a few other things around that conversation. However, the market seems to have acclimatized to this kind of transitory idea to a certain respect. Um, but the, the weakness of that jobs report we had before was, if anything, a real surprise and actually validated the Fed's understanding that probably it's prudent to not react to market expectations about tightening too quickly and to be more passive, be more conservative, more gradual, the typical Fed stance. And actually post that, we saw equities momentarily hit fresh record highs, of course. And under those scenarios, typically we see weaker dollar, we see then positive gold moves, bond yields declines, the T-notes rally, and so on. So kind of a buy everything situation, whereas heading into this month, it kind of feels a little bit similar in a way. Perhaps expectations aren't so bullish because once bitten, twice shy, and markets don't want to get wrong-footed again. But one of the things that I'll show you, and I'll quickly show you on the charts, is that yesterday we had 3 major things happen. And what you can see to the side of me here, I'll explain in a bit more detail. But these are effectively— I know it's a bit small to see. I'll try and make it a bit bigger, but I'll talk you through it. These things are basically employment indicators that come out prior to the release of the labor report, and it gives us as market participants a bit of an insight as to underlying labor market conditions on various different scales. So if we were looking at the services PMI or the manufacturing PMI, it will look at that sector And then from the constituents, we can derive the underlying employment situation. One of the things we had yesterday was ADP. So ADP is, is a figure that comes out typically if there's no bank holiday, the Wednesday before the jobs report on the Friday. And what that really looks like is a precursor, given it's a wide-level national jobs report, as to what potentially the National Employment Report from the BLS could look like on, on today. And that number was pretty spectacular. I say that it wasn't spectacular, it was very strong. It came in at 978,000. That was way stronger than expected and above the top end of the most bullish estimate on the street of 900K. In context, obviously it's the highest number we've had since around June of 2020. Of which when we saw big gyrations in employment given the initial lockdown that we went through, through that period and that summer. But the point being is we had that. I'm not going to look at jobless— initial jobless claims, the one we had yesterday, which came in below 400K. And the reason for that is it's not part of the reference week that's used to calculate today's numbers. But initial jobless claims at the time of the corresponding week for this report were continuing to print fresh pandemic lows. So initial jobless claims have gone progressively in the right direction. One of the things, of course, which was a, a bit of a point of contention last time was about because of stimulus checks in January and March, and because of how low minimum wage is in the US, a lot of people weren't going in, you know, putting themselves forward for jobs. And that was creating a bit of a squeeze, if you like, a tightness in the labor market, and that in itself creating a degree of inflationary pressures. But since that point, we have had a number of the US federal states now ending those programs, trying to then get people back into the workforce as the underlying kind of objective and ease also those price pressures. So this number was very strong, which would lend its hand to then potentially a, a stronger report coming out momentarily. So jobless claims also heading in the right way. You've then also— we had the ISM Services number yesterday, and that was a record high. The thing that people tend to look at in those reports are the employment constituents. So this is where it gets a little bit mixed, because on the ISM PMIs, the service number, the actual employment constituent, dropped to 55.3 after hitting a 3-year peak. And on the manufacturing side, it saw a bit of a pullback to 50.9 after peaking at 59.6. So a couple things to, to note there. However, one of the things I wanted to show you was, was this, and this is the share of people in America who have received a vaccination, at least one shot. At the moment, that number's just ticked over 50%. And as you can see, the trajectory is slightly shallowed, but we've been heading in a good direction, i.e., leading to, as a tangible result, further reopening across different states. And so what that led to was when you actually look at ADP and you break down that 978,000 figure, of that, the service-providing sector added about 850,000 jobs led by leisure and hospitality, those key areas that really got impacted through the depths of the, the pandemic. So yeah, that, that's the overall summary of things. It's a little bit mixed picture overall. ADP, JOLTS, initial jobless claims all pointing in a fairly positive fashion. The constituents of the PMI numbers, maybe not so much in terms of the expectations for the figures, and then we'll talk about market reaction. Payrolls is obviously a multifaceted release. There's a lot of information that comes out, but it's almost like a— if you think of almost like an algorithm of inputs and outputs, the first input— so knee-jerk reaction you typically see in a day trading environment— the first input is the change in headline non-farm payrolls. So the first output is a reaction, then effect of that figure. So the one that people will look at first and will see the initial gyration in market is against 650,000. How does it perform? So the first figure you hear and the range there to be aware of is 400K to 1 million. And the range obviously is really important as to determine the deviation away from the median consensus to almost express then the type of magnitude of impact you're likely to see on that initial knee-jerk reaction. This is all very much land of the algos, so not for the human trader. The human trader element, element comes in when it's trying to then decipher the multifaceted nature of the payroll report, because other than the headline figure— so how does it come out comparative to 650? How does it come out in terms of a 2— as a revision, a 2-month net revision? What does the unemployment rate look like? And so it's taking all of these parts of the puzzle to then get an overall assessment of this is a really good, really bad, it's a mixed report. And subsequently that will dictate then whether it's a linear, quite clean reaction, or much more complicated and mixed, which is inevitably much more difficult to trade. If we were then going to flip over to the charts, and I'm going to drag each one of these over to my other screen one by, one by one. Um, and so I'm gonna start off with the way that some of these charts were moving in a kind of uniform way um, yesterday. So I'm gonna bring up here gold first. So this was the gold chart yesterday, and you'll probably remember if you were trading, we saw a good breakdown in price where we dropped from around $1910 all the way down and through to levels we've not seen in terms of the overnight Asia-Pac session, down at around $1854. Now this move did also correspond with this move, which is— this is the US 10-year. And as you can see here, we saw a move down in the 10-year yesterday. And remember the 3 trigger points: jobless claims, the PMI data, the ADP move. This— the point I'm trying to make here is this has led to quite a distinct positional move ahead of today's release, which is important to understand in order to understand the type of reaction that we might see. So yields are higher is what we're seeing on T-notes, whereas in gold, gold price is lower. And a lot of the function of that lower gold price in fact has come from dollar strength. So it's a uniform move where generally asset classes reacting in a positive fashion to strong data, i.e., high yields firmer dollar. That weighs on gold in that situation and feeds through into the precious metals moving lower in that, in that sense. So EURUSD is lower, so relative dollar strength going into this release. Yields are higher, stocks momentarily sold off, but that's, that's where it gets complicated. The stocks picture is much more convoluted on that balance between is good data good for stocks is too good a data, bad for stocks because it brings, accelerates tapering discussions, and therefore it's a net negative. Yesterday's moves, I would say, in the equity market just goes to show really how equities is not really what I'd be focused on. To give you that clarity, this was that move that we had here in stocks. We sold off and we bounced quite aggressively back, whereas in the 10-year, in gold, in other markets, the move has been held. So I wouldn't look to equities for too much clarity when this number comes out. I'd probably be looking, um, at the other products— so yield reaction, gold, so on and so forth. So just going back to the multi-asset look then, um, in general summary, you've, you've probably have got to see a pretty big number come out shortly, in the next 2 minutes. And what I mean by that is, remember, the top end of the range is around 900K, or as a million in fact. And so anything like a 750, 800 print actually might have the opposite reaction to what you might normally see to that of a strong number. By what I mean by that is actually the dollar might weaken because it's set the bar up through then its expectation and how markets have positioned themselves accordingly for that upside number to materialize. So anything less than that is now going to be a disappointment and could well invoke a kind of negative type reaction, um, in that sense. So really, I think if you're going to see EURUSD cable come under pressure, if you're going to see gold come under significant pressure, I I think you've got to see up there a 1 million type figure or plus. Beyond that point would be my kind of view. But I'm going to put the squawk on. So we use a company called News Squawk. They're the best in the business. They're going to break the news, um, and then I will come on and clarify thereafter any immediate analysis. Okay, just gonna get my Squawk on. Okay, it should be just about 30 seconds. There might be a slight delay on some of the live streaming. I will re-emphasize anything important that initially stands out. 10 seconds.

559, that's 559, low expected of 650. The unemployment rate, 5.8%, low expected, 5.9. The Priced to 278. The earnings month on month is 0.5, but expected 0.2. Year on year, 2%, but expected 1.6. Where we are is 34.9, but expected 35. Positive bedroom rates, about 4 to 61.6. And the employment change for Canada, that's -68, but expected -20. Full-time, -13.8. Part-time, -54.2. Unemployment rate, that's in line at 8.2%. Participation rates now 64.6%, down from prior 64.9%. Still looking at the wages components, which— going back to the US, in terms of breakdown, private was 492, below expected 600, manufacturing 23, below expected 24, going to the 67. In terms of revisions, private revised to 2219, manufacturing to -32, and government to 259. Elsewhere, earnings year-on-year revised higher to 0.4 from 3, Workweek Hours Advisor to 34.9. So again, just going to go to the bones of that report. That was a slight miss of expectations of the headline unemployment rate. That did see a tick lower alongside a decline in the labor force participation rate. Then in terms of earnings components, they were generally stronger. In terms of the market reaction we've seen thus far, we have seen some dollar softness, uh, dollar negative on the SEP Okay, I'm just going to turn the, turn the mic off there.

So look, let me just transition my screen. So S&P initial move higher. We've just had a brief breach then of those highs that we were printing that were restricting price action into yesterday afternoon. And then if we look elsewhere on gold prices rocketing higher and T-note prices also initially spiked higher as well, as you can see here on the right-hand side. They faded that move a little bit. But the point being is you've got what we would classify as like a disappointment in the sense that, yeah, the headline figure has missed. But remember, markets are kind of erring on the balance of an upside surprise. And actually, we've got the complete opposite. And the upside surprise comes as a function of how markets had repositioned themselves yesterday. We've had a degree of dollar strength, which is what gives the, the gold market, but Remember, the gold market got hammered yesterday, and so the gold market's got a nice progressive room to retrace a large portion of that move. Well, look, the gold futures just coming up now to have a test on that previous low here, as you can see. So just going to mark this up so you can see this test is just having a bit of a, a tussle at around that level in the futures, which was the previous low on last Thursday. Any further move on the upside, I'd probably be keeping an eye here. Which is the previous high and low, so around 1890. But you can see there, traders intraday on the fast money move are looking for the first point of exit in any of these fast money trades. So that's a good technical point. You can see that quite clearly on these basic lines. In terms of the, um, gold— this is the gold move. On the S&P move, you can see some further strength coming in Again, these types of figures then just kind of lend its hand to the fact that for equities likely to remain consolidated at record high territory, you know, as me and the rest of the team continue to say, is that we personally see inflation as transitory. We see the Fed taking its time, and that's a positive cocktail for, for equities to not so much push on up but to remain relatively close to consolidate at these highs. And The equities have had a bit of a tough time in recent sessions, so we're just coming back up here in the S&P, and we'll be keeping an eye on the high that we printed going back to yesterday's session before the general move lower that we saw. And so that comes in at 13.25, just above where we're trading at the moment. If anything, be good to look at the NASDAQ because the NASDAQ does tend to be a little bit more sensitive because tech stocks are particularly sensitive to yield movement. The NASDAQ underperformed yesterday, and so by definition then, if anything, it should get quite a bit of reprieve from today's figure. And so in the NASDAQ space, we're just coming up to close to a test back up to the high, um, yesterday. Anything above there, just be keeping an eye on, yeah, probably this kind of rain— relative range at around 13,622. But a pretty decent bid already being observed. The 10-year is a little bit less convincing at this point. Uh, the 10-year has had a bit of a spike and a pullback, hasn't really been able to sustain that move. If I look at it on a slightly shorter time frame, all we've done is just taken back some of that decline that we had yesterday. Okay, just going to move some of my charts back into the broader picture, and I'm going to turn the SWAT back on for a moment in case there's any other observations they've made. The other guys hopefully are fielding the chat. I'm trying to manage about 20 different things at the minute, so You'll have to bear with me if I'm not responding to any of you in, um, comment by comment for the time being, but I will do. I'll get around to it. Um, let's just slot the NASDAQ back into position and then we'll have a bit of a broader view and I can blow up some of the other charts. So at the moment, FX markets— attention in the media, UK R number estimated to be between 1.1 and 1.2, up to the problem of 1.2 Yeah, quite interesting that the squawk was just pointing out the latest R number, the reproductive number of the COVID-19 virus in the UK has gone up and it's above 1, which is obviously not a good direction at this point in time in terms of further spread and transmission of the virus. Um, had a really fantastic chat actually just about 2 hours ago with one of the guys in the community about exactly where we're at. Will the government open or not on June 21st? And also the Nepalese variant, which is going to be super important in the weeks to come, and it's only very small at the moment. I will look to share that with our YouTube community on Saturday, so remember to subscribe and you'll be able to watch that. But yeah, just having a look across the board now, T-notes— I'm going to blow them up bigger here so you can see— T-notes here have reversed a large portion of that move. We're back to pretty much where we started. Um, just to be clear, if you didn't hear it thoroughly, to repeat on all of the numbers, the headline was 5.59 against expectations of 6.50. The 2-month net revision was marginal at +0.27. The actual revision was also marginal, um, from 2.66 to 2.78. The unemployment rate was 5.8, 0.1 lower than expected. All in all, I would say it's kind of the sweet spot for for the Fed, where this week you might have noticed they've been a little bit more conversational, the non-voters at least, about this idea of the discussion of tapering, and given on the basis the way the economy is performing as we go through the reopening. Whereas the voting members, like New York's Fed Williams last night, was talking more about this idea of, look, we should go as we are, slowly and gradually, Um, in fact, he said that, um, they're just discussing the options for adjusting policy is still far from this point. And I think that today's number only ratifies that, which is why I think you're not getting too much in the way of a sustained kind of reaction in some of these markets. I think the reaction effect is more a function of the movement that we saw yesterday specifically. So the FX markets had um, a bit of a recovery. I mean, the Dixie's taken a bit of a hit from 90.50 down to 90.20, uh, on the back of this so far. Um, just having a quick look at gold, just make that a bit bigger here. So gold's initially ran up to pivot, and you can see that pivot level, you can just see that pivot level on that low on the trend line is just a really nice level that a lot of short-term day traders would have been looking at. So as the market came back up here, it's just hit that dual obstacle of that horizontal resistance at that previous low on Friday last week with the pivot on that quick shoot up, and then it's just started to fatigue a little bit. I'm just going to check though with the team if there's any questions or anything. So for the team, I'm just having a scan through now. Just, just let me know in the, um, the private chat, Team Amplify, if there's anything you want me to comment on or speak of, and I can, no problem. And I'm going to put the squawk on for a second. Any questions at all for me though? Um, Wherever you're listening from and whatever you're trading, let me know. Don't have to talk about payrolls, happy to talk about anything. I do have some of the others— Piers, Will— they're all on the chat as well. I can even see the main man, Sam North. How's it going, Sam? Good to have you, uh, on the live stream. Okay, let me see if I can bring up the actual BLS report and let's have a look at the actual granular level detail of where these 559,000 jobs have come from. So let's bring that up. And for some of you might never have seen this before, so there's some good graphics that you can pull up. So just to talk you through it, um, particularly if there's any more, you know, anyone who's into analysis side of things, this is what the actual Employment Situation Summary report looks like. And if you scroll down, it's got all the facts and figures. So the news agencies have basically just plucked out the numbers that are necessary to form the main top-level information But if you scroll down, you do get quite a bit of detail on the breakdown. And actually, there is a section here where you've got news release charts, which are quite useful for— I always find data in a visual— presented in a visual way is quite good to just get a general context of things. And so if we look at, yeah, employment by industry, hit the go button. I'm gonna go by monthly change. So here, here's a look at employment change by industry for May 2021. And as per— very similar to what we had in ADP, you can see here it's leisure and hospitality that's really picked up. And this is one of the key things as well with this idea about inflationary pressures from a tight labor market not being able to actually fulfill a lot of orders due to a lack of people actually coming back into work. Well, this would suggest that that's now starting to loosen up a little bit, and probably it's only that figure going to get more potent going forward because we're going to get further reopenings and people are going to deplete their stimulus savings. Or check if there's any left over that period of time, they're going to have to go out and get work again. You know, if we add the 559,000 jobs in terms of slack in the economy, we're still several million— I mean, I don't know the precise figure, but 7.5 million, 8 million jobs away from getting back to where we were prior to the pandemic. So You know, this jobless figure, um, or this payrolls report so far, I think the reaction effect that's happened here pretty much says it all, which is not a great deal. I mean, the market was kind of geeing this up as quite important for the Fed, and the reason why it's important for the Fed is because this is the last opportunity before the blackout period that starts today. And so this was the last important piece of information that we were going to get before the June 16th meeting, which obviously they're going to release their new economic projections. And with that being said, then for me, I don't see any type of necessity to really move the needle too much, getting aggressive to make the market believe that you're going to start the taper discussion anytime kind of soon in that respect. Don't forget, you've got things like Jackson Hole happening in August another substantial platform that could be used for that opportunity. Just, just making the chart on oil a little bit bigger, a little bit of softness in the dollar, but a more gradual Fed with demand picking up as the US economy reopens. And so due to large majority of the global market, these are all bullish catalysts for oil. I'm not saying payrolls right now, but it just helps this trend. I mean, if you actually look at oil on the multi-asset channel— crikey, I'll turn that off for a second— if you actually look at oil here on the trend, this is quite a definitive upward trend that we've been in, in WTI crude oil. I'm looking at on a 30-minute chart here, and as you can see, if we put on a daily chart, we are right up there at some of the best levels that we've traded right here on the left top round corner. The highest level since 2018, and we're trading at $69.27 in futures. $70, psychologically, definitely the next stop from a target perspective on, on the longs. So yeah, this number, if anything, I'd say is supportive of this trend channel remaining in play for the time being, as we've had this week from the IEA talking about you know, undeclared uranium enrichment from Iran, amid then a delay in a concrete solution for the Iranian sanctions situation and the, the 2015 nuclear deal, with OPEC holding pat, oil I think still looks quite good for the moment. If anything, to consolidate up and around these higher levels. But it'll be interesting to see if we can get a test in the coming days of or sessions at that $70 handle. Got close to it earlier in the week. Yesterday we got up to as high as $69.39 for a bit of a pullback. In here we're just having a test up and around the highs that were seen early in the European open this morning. Um, someone's asked, what is the blackout period? Good question. So yeah, for those not familiar with the, the kind of procedure, very brief overview: the Fed have 8 meetings a year, and there's a, there's a certain protocol to this, which is what we call the blackout period. So in the week prior to the week of the event, i.e., the 16th of June, they're not allowed to talk to the media. So there is no Fed member who's allowed to communicate publicly about the economy and monetary policy. Now, why is that important? Well, central banks are in the business of reducing uncertainty and subsequent volatility in markets, so they use what we call tactical communication about the intentions they have for future policy, otherwise known as forward guidance. And what forward guidance is dependent on is credibility, because what they're suggesting is how then we will position today's market prices on their— what we think and the timing of their future actions. And so the blackout period then marks basically if the Fed want to tell us something, then they have a limited amount of time up to then when they can say it. Which is the last day before the blackout, because when it comes blackout, they can't say anymore. This data to me would not warrant them changing direction. Dropping the seed of we should be thinking of tapering without committing to it above board from a voting member, I think is prudent, um, to start to build in the idea of tapering so that people don't freak out when the inevitable discussion does commence. In the weeks, months to come. So that's what the blackout period is, largely to avert, um, excessive market volatility or rumors, things of this nature that, that have been seen before. So hopefully that makes a bit more sense. Yeah, there are some questions about transitory inflation, and while we're on that point of transitory inflation let me just show you something. So some of you might have already— might already listen to this, some of you might not be aware of it, but there are— or there is a podcast that myself and the head of trading, Piers Curran, put out every Friday. In fact, we had the latest episode where we had a really great discussion about key themes in markets this week. We talked about meme stocks and AMC Talked about the announcement from Russia to diversify out of the US dollar. Really good view and insights from Piers about his idea of the end of potentially globalization, which has obviously dominated the last two decades. And then we talked about OPEC+ meeting. Every week basically we talk about these themes and give you a bit of a flavor for what our insights are. But on the transitory inflation front, There's a couple of episodes. So for the person, I think it was Max, who asked that question, we've talked about, um, transitory inflation in depth on episode 15 and also in episode 16. So I would definitely go and check those out, basically, um, to give you the long story short. But the point being is that there's a debate that's happening upon what types of inflation are actually leading to, um, something that's going to be more temporary of nature, like the fact of a chip shortage, which in most motor vehicles manufactured in 2021, they require more chip power than ever. And if there's a chip supply shortage, there's a lack of manufactured new cars to be built. And therefore used car sales, um, go up by an unusually high amount. If you remember, the prior stat was that they had gone up 10% in a month, which is phenomenally large. But the idea being that as the chip shortage reduces and consequently their manufacturing resumes, and when people come back to work as COVID is more suppressed, vaccinations take hold, production rates pick up, and subsequently those price pressures will ease. But it's a debate. I mean, you can see it on either side, but I guess try to eliminate your view too much. Do the assessment both sides, but listen to the Fed because ultimately they're the ones making the decision that will derive market direction, uh, in that sense. Um, on the point of inflation, actually there was a super interesting article in the FT Um, if you don't follow me on Twitter, there's the handle. But I did reshare an FT article this morning, um, and they made a really good point as well about inflation. And this also addresses that transitory point. And if I scroll down, I will show you. Um, definitely at the moment inflation is very hard to pin down. First, what this graphic shows you here is, um, changing credit and debit card spending. And so at the moment, trying to get a feel of forecasting definitive medium-long-term trends in inflation is incredibly difficult because there's different phases of reopening happening on a more granular level. So grocery spending is up 17%, whereas if you were to look at something like transport spending Obviously, a lot of people are still working from home. So there's a big disconnect there which would not really be that comparable, certainly on a year-on-year basis. And there's those base effects we've talked about before, which has temporarily made the numbers look very elevated right now. But also, as we go through this readjustment on the slightly dislocated reopening across different geographic regions, the point about Europe was really interesting though that the FT made. And just to quickly give you a summary, unlike the US, the eurozone weightings— so how they calculate inflation— is updated annually in January. And changes in consumption patterns during the pandemic, this year's calculation will give little weight to the items such as petrol, hotels, and restaurants, those that were hit by the lockdown. So as a result, if European consumers return to pre-pandemic spending patterns, as the economy normalizes, official statistics will underestimate their spending in these areas. So all in all then, interpreting the inflation data, um, there's going to be pandemic era spending distortions, not only during lockdowns but also later this year as we return to these consumption patterns. So that's why I think the main rule of thumb here is just ask the question and apply the context instead of just thinking, buying into these sensational headlines. Inflation surged the most it has since 2008, or on record. It's like, yeah, that's because we've just had a pandemic. So that's what a lot of that transitory, um, argument comes from. Okay, just while I, um, await if there's any other questions that the guys want to fire in, to me via the private chat. Then a couple of other things to be aware of, if you haven't already done so, live streaming like this, my colleague Tim does it every day, and I join, jump on to go over big macro stuff and data releases like this when it happens every day. We have a whole community with a platform behind it, which has got loads of cool stuff, everything from macro, commodity, even crypto. Um, we have a designated crypto room, so just jump on AmplifyLive.com. This is what it looks like, and the best thing about that is there is an absolutely free option. So if you want to be part of the community, if you want to get early priority access to my macro morning briefing, if you want to get access to a private chart or technical analysis charts, just literally go to AmplifyLive.com and subscribe for free. You don't need to put any card details, nothing like that, so you don't need to worry on that side of things. And then yeah, get stuck in and get conversing with the rest of the guys in the community. There are lots of other things within the TraderHub portal, um, and there's two different levels of access. The live streaming stuff is more towards the pro end, um, check it out. The other thing then is, um, anyone who's a student And I know there's going to be a couple that are listening. Don't forget to check out AmplifyMe.com. So we work with lots of financial institutions. In fact, Will is flying out, touch wood, if he can travel to— I think it's Miami— to work with Citadel, who's a key client of ours. We also work with Bank of America, Citi, Credit Suisse, lots of other banks as we're part of their— our technology is used for their recruitment selection process, their graduate training programs. And we on the student side of what Amplify do, do a great deal of work helping young people find their future in finance by practically fulfilling different roles in finance, you know, really getting stuck in and doing a sales trader, market maker, role or running an IPO, doing an M&A case study in real, in a real sense. So check it out if you're a student. Amplify Me, our summer analysts program, starts actually on Monday. So really super excited to have those guys join us, but there's some other groups as well throughout the summer. All right, just going to have a look if there's any more questions and then we'll look to wrap things up at the top of the hour. Have a look how things are residing at the moment. So yeah, equity is still, you know, looking favorable on the back of this, and, uh, and looks like we're getting a bit of another flush on that move. So EURUSD, just making the chart bigger here, EURUSD just moving up to highs now. So continuation of dollar weakness just becoming more, more prevalent. So let's just cycle through the charts. The dollar index is now trading down about 0.4%. Upside now in the euro. Um, yeah, you've got the R1, that previous area of consolidation there, coming in around 21, uh, 87.5. Cable obviously following suit. Let's have a look at cable, um, here. I'm just going to make it bigger. It looks like we might have already gone through that trend line from that previous weekly high, but at the beginning of the week Yeah, the market— quite a nice level that, where you can see you've had a brief false break at that level, but that level was the previous peak of the price activity we had midweek on Wednesday, provided a bit of a floor for that push-up that we had before then, the downward move on the back of the dollar strength on the US data on Thursday. So yeah, just having a look at the cable market here, further dollar weakness, next target would be those previous highs that were seen yesterday, and you've got the 142 handle which has obviously been significant here as you can see. Otherwise, quick flip over to gold. And yeah, we're through that level that we were looking at just a short while ago. So I'm just going to squeeze my chart a bit so you can see everything. Yeah, so here we were looking at that previous pivot with that low on Friday. We we're now through that. So could well see not next resistance coming in until we get a little bit higher up. I'll be looking around $18.90, about $3 away from current price. That starts to encapsulate these previous highs here in mid-May, um, and also the support points on the 27th, 28th. Any further bid there— so if anything, what you're getting, as I would kind of summarize it, is an unwind of the pre-built movement that we saw yesterday after those good numbers. And to ratify that, here's T-notes, and T-notes are almost exactly back to where we started, X-ing out the yield move from yesterday. So I don't think it shifts the Fed, but it definitely constitutes a good reversal, and equally so just puts us back in neutral gear from, from yesterday. It's kind of my summary of how I'd see it. Okay, Amplify team, let me know if there's any final questions, and if not, I'll look to wrap it up. But again, feel free to— if you're watching this on YouTube, remember to hit the subscribe button. As I said, I'm going to share a video tomorrow, really great conversation about COVID-19, stuff that perhaps you've not really thought about a great deal, but anticipating what a reopening of the UK economy on the 21st might mean for the autumn. And it's a pretty, uh, scary assumptions being made from some of the statistics that are being run by some of the scientists and the mathematicians. So definitely worth checking out, and I'll publish that tomorrow. But yeah, otherwise Thank you very much, guys. Um, The Demo Trader, what do I mean by unwind? Um, when I say unwind, typically what I'm referring to is the notion of people building to an ex— so people have an expectation for today's report to be good, so they pre-position it almost into that release, so they're already trading the rumor, if you like, and they're selling the fact in a sense. So they're expecting a good report, so yields, dollar firm up into the release expecting something good, and then that move gets reversed or unwound in the sense that this data really hasn't lived up to that expectation. Hopefully that makes a bit more sense. Um, Yeah, sorry I've not been able to see every single chat. There's quite a few firing off. Um, gonna need to get myself a little Homer Junior, I think, to join me on the desk going forward. But, um, Sam North, always a pleasure to have you with us. I hope you're doing well. And everyone else, thank you very much. Okay guys, take care and I'll see you back in the Amplify Live room shortly. Okay, just final question, someone's just asked what, what platform are you using? So this platform here is called CQG. I use CQG Integrated Client. I can access all the different charts, products that I look at because I look at macro. Generally speaking, I look at everything from major FX pairs, crosses, commodities, precious base, fixed income products, typically the 10-year, and so on. I, I have been looking at a few individual single stocks and let's just have a quick look, let's have a quick look at crypto then. And I'm only going to talk about Bitcoin. Um, obviously this was the— this was that area of which Elon Musk made the, um, Bitcoin heartbreak emoji tweet last night, and, uh, the subsequent sell-off in Bitcoin overnight. And was keeping an eye on the trend line here from the 19th, tested back on the 1st. It was holding up quite nicely as providing a bit of a floor actually for the Musk sell-off overnight. Momentarily broke below there, but as you can see on the horizontal basis, there was some fairly decent technical support that's seen in Bitcoin at around some of the earlier weak price action from Monday, Tuesday, and the market's kind of responded to that at this point in time. The one thing I'm quite interested to see, and we've still got half an hour or so until the open is how the Tesla shares fare at the open. This is a quick look at Tesla. Quite an interesting close yesterday, in fact, because we closed at $571, and that puts us back down at that technical point of where we initially saw the low back on the 20th after that gap up on the 19th to the 20th. There's a couple of fundamental triggers, but one thing is, is that there is a degree of color correlated— excuse me— reaction or movement between Bitcoin and Tesla shares. And obviously Bitcoin trading lower can be problematic for Tesla, and particularly when we are at quite a key technical point of support, of which broken could lead to some further selling pressure for Tesla. Now the good things for Tesla is this report has come out, this payrolls report, and equities are seeing a bit of a relief and a rallying. Secondary, Bitcoin has stabilized and is coming off its lows. So if anything, Tesla's shares will probably benefit from, from that situation. Otherwise, what would have been some, some downside risks— just going to have a quick look actually of Tesla pre-market, see what they're trading at. Uh, pre-market, Tesla is set to open at around 581, so kind of around here. So yeah, it would be a bit of a bounce of that, but that's a key technical level to keep an eye on, 571 in their shares, uh, going forward. All right, cool. Thanks guys, appreciate you sticking around and joining me live. Again, check Check out the podcast, just search for Market Watch on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, you better find it and check out the last discussion just had with Piers a few hours ago. Subscribe to YouTube channel and then yeah, check out AmplifyLive.com and AmplifyMe.com if you're a student. Otherwise, have a great weekend. I'm told the sun is going to come back out because it's raining right now where I am. And yeah, stay safe and catch you guys on Monday. Take care.