Markets Comfortable With Coronavirus (For Now!)

OK, very good morning, Wednesday 29th of January. I hope everyone is doing well. So as you can see, regular start now to my briefings, the coronavirus live monitor update, which I'll get into shortly. But you can already see there in the top corner of that screen, the total confirmed cases now just a touch above 6,000. 100,000. Total deaths now at 132— excuse me if I can speak properly— 132. And as you can see, that Hubei, where the capital city in that province being Wuhan, is still the epicenter of the outbreak in China, where still the predominant virus has spread in relative containment within that geographic region for the moment. So Couple of things from overnight. You did have Hong Kong returning to markets. They've obviously been closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. Remember, there is a bit of a difference between when Hong Kong markets open and the mainland. So Hong Kong catching up, really. I would— I wouldn't overinterpret the fact that the Hang Seng fell 2.8% overnight. That's a sizable move, but that's because it's had to play, as I said, catch up from some of the movement in which we've had earlier in the week and since the weekend. And let's not forget the, the more localized indices have been impacted more severely than they have here in the Western world in regard to the mainland Europe, the UK, and the US. China remains closed. Remember, they've had an extension to their Lunar New Year holidays, so not looking until next week until things get back to normal business there. But again, that's something to monitor whether or not they'll move that Obviously, the longer they remain on lockdown or shutdown in terms of their whole economy and the movement of people and ability to be able to work, and obviously from a manufacturing activity point of view, which has already been relatively depressed, albeit stabilized over the period of the last few months, the longer the shutdown, the more severe the economic implication could be as a knock-on effect. So they definitely would want to get things back to normal at some point soon. Soon. A quick look at the charts though, and, and a quick— a few points to discuss really. For one, Wall Street— I mean, the Dow finished up last night 187 points. If we look at the S&P, and I'm going to look at 3 different charts here because I was in conversation with a couple of the guys yesterday about correlations, which also want to— I want to mention here. And these charts remain unaltered as to some of the just general support, resistance, trend lines, and also the ellipses, which were sort of targets that we were looking at at the time. And so, you know, it's not rocket science when it comes to where you think or anticipate that price movement could react to. Again, the baseline core then is your, your fundamental view on whether or not you think that this coronavirus is It's kind of, as far as the markets are perceiving it, is controllable, at least at the moment. And this is my first point I wanted to make. You know, I've seen a lot of people on Twitter or just generally asking me questions saying about, you know, what was the origination, and it's China, they're creating these biochemically engineered kind of weapons such as viruses. The death toll is way higher, it's much worse than what they're saying. Quite frankly, I don't care about that. It's not important. I mean, I say that in the sense that yes, it is important in terms of we're tracking it, but you know, where it, how it started, where it came from is kind of, you know, yesterday's information. What I'm trying to judge in my job and to help you guys in a way to see it is what is it that markets expect. And at this point, the fact that the total confirmed cases are at 6,000— I think 6,000 is pretty low comparative to where markets perhaps were fearing only 2 days ago. So at the moment, unless this is to escalate and 6,000 turns to 60,000 within the next coming days, I I don't really see this as being a major threat to Western financial markets at this point in time. I think yesterday was a large reflection of that. Yes, if you look at this graphic, the rise of cases is almost exponential, but don't forget, if everyone is expecting exponential rise, well then, unless it's absolutely spectacular in terms of how quickly the virus is evolving and spreading, well then this is within our expectation. And so therefore it's, you know, in the mind of the investor it's a contained situation, not contained as in the virus developing, if that makes sense. So that's, that's the first point. The second point then here is looking at these charts from a more technical standpoint. Obviously you had the gap down in price from the coronavirus gap on the recommencement of trade over the weekend. Monday was the day which the S&P saw its biggest down day in almost 6 months, and so that was that low point which we defined, and we've now printed down at, you know, kind of the 3233 level in the S&P. However, since that point yesterday when we were talking in the briefing, we were kind of hovering around this area here, and then it was a case of looking at the kind of range highs and then, then a potential gap fill. And you can see when we did actually yesterday in the afternoon start to break the top end of that, that range we had been trading, then, you know, it's kind of, you know, clear traffic then to just try and close up the gap. And that's pretty much to the tick. You can see the way the, the market responded from that period of around 3 to 5 PM yesterday. As soon as you hit your objective, which was that, that initial low that we had on Friday, the market then backed off we kind of consolidated around that point, only then to break higher again in Asia Pacific session. And now what was pretty decent, um, resistance here now turns to pretty strong support. So as you can see from these levels, so yeah, from here I would say I feel fairly confident now that the market might well contain a range or in this kind of fashion if not start to push higher. If it is the case then that this coronavirus, although the numbers will, will continue to accumulate, if it continues in the fashion that it is at the moment, I think the markets will take that in its stride, is the point I'm making. Now, from a third point was the correlations. Now, that's just looking at the S&P, and one of the things I was talking about yesterday was about the judgment of sentiment. And obviously yesterday in the briefing we're talking a lot about trying to pick up on the nuances of what the general media is talking about. You remember everyone was kind of brushing aside the severity of it, talking about the historical precedents, all those big banks like JP Morgan and GS Morgan talking about the phenomenal recovery markets tend to see. And so that's one part. The other part then for the sentiment is, you know, where is these other assets trading? And the clearest barometer of risk often is things like gold and T-notes. As a nice kind of measurement of people's risk appetite. And yesterday there were two kind of key periods of market movement. One was here, which was, as you can see, was the gap up that we had. So this is the inverse mirror reversal, if you like, of the S&P. So as the S&P fell and gapped down at the reopening of trade Sunday night, gold gapped up. But then when we broke yesterday around midday the previous low and the highs we had on Friday. You can see that extension, that snap lower that we had, came back up to that point and then the push down. And so when I was talking to some of the guys yesterday, I mean, as I said, that these, these X's here are completely unaltered. Obviously this price action didn't exist. And so you can just see though how the planning that we were talking through did actually work. Absolutely. Market broke, came back up to the level came all the way back down, hit that target down at the S2, which was some of the low of the period, uh, of that consolidation we had on the evening of the 24th. You then had the target of the high on the 21st and 23rd. We broke that, hit our second X, that being then the point of which was bringing in some of the previous highs on the 21st and the 23rd, and down here on that 24th. And then that would have been the final exit on that trade. So again, it's, you know, marking out these levels, you know, and monitoring then the trigger points. And one of the things I was saying to the guys yesterday, because, you know, T-notes here on the bottom right, the final chart I'll kind of show you, is the same sort of setup. Obviously, if we're looking for an equity recovery and we're looking at gold trading heavy, well, then to fit that narrative, we'd want to be seeing T-notes continuing to grind lower. So at the point then, we were looking at these entry points at around that pivot level down towards the, the, the S1 and the lower bound of the price activity. And you can see really, if I put a horizontal line, how the market came down to that target of that initial low after the gap up we had on Sunday. And as per that X there, we did get grind down, didn't quite get down to the point of where the Friday high was before then similar, like, like gold, before we then have had a bit of a bounce this morning. Ideally, what you're looking out for in the intraday kind of environment is generally monitoring, let's say, just looking at gold, the S&P, and the 10-year. I think between those three then is technically looking at where there are any relevant key levels that could act as a trigger point almost then for that then being a catalyst for for a domino effect where the trade might not be the first direct one, but the subsequent move in a different asset thereafter. And that's where, again, you're trying to make your judgment of timing of execution, but also as well your judgment about your conviction on the type of sentiment that you're seeing in the market. And that's where the correlations can be particularly useful in that regard. So I'll leave the technical setup and stuff to Sam in a moment, but I just thought I'd cover off those, those few points. One thing though that I thought was quite interesting from a headline— this came out of the South China Morning Post this morning, and it was talking about, you remember, and this is another great example about how human behavior is such a, a key component of being able to trade intraday and and pick up on the nuances of the change in sentiment and the narrative of the stories on the kind of hierarchy of the news that's moving markets. If you remember, about before coronavirus came along, everyone was talking about US-China trade war, of which you've pretty much heard nothing about. And then from a public national interest point of view, it's like Meghan Markle and Harry never existed. After I couldn't get away from it, being exposed to news as a job. Now no one's bothered. Why? Because there's a new story in town that's much more important that could infect all humans across the entire global— across the planet. And so that's the new sexy story in town, so it gets all the airplay, and news channels will be, you know, directly looking at that. So although there's a disconnect between normal TV for the man on the street. Market participants need to take into account then how market prices reflect this new, this new kind of norm, is the point. An interesting thing though, going back to the US-China trade talks, was this Chinese press reporting that coronavirus originating in Wuhan has sent agriculture commodity prices tumbling, and obviously it's led to the shutdown of factories and markets in mainland China for a longer period than was initially anticipated, many analysts are now starting to become increasingly skeptical about China's ability to buy the $200 billion of US goods in the next 2 years. You know, remember, China signed up to that Phase 1 deal where they've got to buy an incredible amount, $200 billion worth of US goods over the next 2 years. They're now committed to that as part of that agreement. But you know, how, how How are they able to do that when, you know, they're currently— all efforts are focused and concentrated on just containing this, this latest outbreak? So ultimately, my initial take on this is I don't think that that's too much of an issue. I don't think that the US is really going to press home the point on— I think there will be some wiggle room on any commitments on the timings of this. So if anything, once coronavirus is if it does indeed settle like some of those banks were backtesting with their data, and in the coming weeks if this is all a distant memory and equity markets start moving back to all-time highs again, actually I think this could be a, a fairly positive development in a rather perverse way, because it means then that the market isn't going to be so sensitive to the implementation of Phase 1 'cause China might well be given a little bit of additional leeway on behalf of the US, which means less likelihood of direct confrontation about what was very feared was the implementation of Phase 1 and China's inability to be compliant with that. And so, if anything then, if you remove some of that tension that perhaps could have come over the coming months as China gets its feet back on the ground, and if the US allow them to be able to do that, that does then downplay the severity perhaps of another flare-up in the US-China trade war. So in a way, perhaps this could be a positive if we move beyond the coronavirus in the coming weeks. All right, moving off that, a few other things I want to mention. Obviously, it's the FOMC. Don't forget, we're going to be covering that live tonight on the YouTube channel. So if you don't, then please subscribe. Join us at 6:30 London time, so 12:30 if you're in Chicago. And I'll give you a full preview for 20 minutes before the actual announcement comes, and then we'll have a listen in on Jerome Powell, the press conference. Just a very brief overview because I'm going to go over this in more detail later. This is where interest rates reside at the moment in the, in the US, and obviously we've had that mid-cycle adjustment executed, the 3 rate cuts of 2019. And as far as markets are concerned, from a rate perspective for today, it's pretty much unanimous. Markets are priced for an 87.3% probability of a hold in rates. And in fact, you know, you might have thought, well, this explosion of coronavirus might mean that the economies globally are going to suffer and the Fed are going to have to cut rates. Well, actually, markets have priced, if anything, for a rate hike, not a rate cut. Just goes to show at the moment that a lot of this isn't really fazing the rates market in terms of this, this latest outbreak. And what markets are more concerned about are things like the passage of the Phase 1 trade deal and the implications that has then for stabilization and continued ongoing growth in the US economy. A few things that we will be watching on a very top level— this is the balance sheet of the Fed, and if you remember, the balance sheet exploded through the advent and execution of quantitative easing through the financial crisis up to around $4.5 trillion from $800 billion. They then performed what is kind of more formally known as quantitative tightening. However, they ended the Fed's balance sheet normalization, if you remember, during 2019, because that was when markets were seeing some sensitivity to this kind of unwinding of QE with the subsequent rate hikes that were happening at the time. We had escalation in the trade war and the economy was somewhat stumbling. So they put that on ice. Then you had the repo rate liquidity squeeze, meaning that short-term funding requirements in the US to keep the kind of system ticking over meant that they've had to start buying Treasury bills at a pace of $60 billion, which again is up for debate on whether or not it's not been officially termed as QE. But as you can see, the Fed's balance sheet severely increased over a very short period of time. As they try to offset any short-term issues in, in the funding market. And so this is going to be one of the close things that people are looking at. The Fed will not want to make the market— it's kind of in— it's one of those again where the Fed doesn't want to get the market comfortable with the notion that they're going to be there to support the economy forever, and, and they want to not spook the market when they do start um, tampering down these T-bill purchases that they've been doing, which at the moment they said they'll continue to at least the second quarter of this year. And so perhaps then investors will look at the press conference tonight as so many indications about how they want to go about managing that process over the coming months. Remember, forward guidance is exactly that. The Fed, if they are going to stop this active $60 billion purchase, they want to be communicating this type of thing months in advance as not to spook markets. Just having a look at a few other things. Statement changes probably going to be minimal. The committee is likely to repeat language from December that growth has been moderate with business spending sluggish, inflating, inflation remaining below 2%. I don't actually think the statement is going to be that interesting at all. And then otherwise, the balance of risks, that's kind of one of the key areas and phrasing that people look for. And this really is coming from the press conference. Powell is likely to repeat that the US— the US economy is likely to repeat that the monetary policy is in a good place and it would take a material change in the outlook to cause a move. So if you think about it from a Federal Reserve point of view, As I said, the success of going through phase 1 of the trade deal does mean that for the moment the biggest single threat, at least for now— coronavirus, of course, to be monitored— has been executed, and therefore there's no real need for them to change anything just as yet, whether one way or the other. He's probably going to be questioned, Jerome Powell, on, uh, the trade deal but also coronavirus. But if you're looking for any type of clarity on coronavirus from Powell, I think you're going to be disappointed. Details obviously are vague. Quantifying its impact is incredibly difficult and will only be inaccurate. And so Jerome Powell is likely to not really say anything on the issue. He's obviously going to pay heed that the they'll monitor it. But what can he say? He can't really say anything. So I would definitely not be looking for that to be a cue for an actionable trade over the Fed later on. Um, final things for me to mention: Apple. Um, they had their results last night, one of the biggest corporate earnings. Of course, we've got some other big names I'll show you in a second reporting today that you need to monitor if you're looking at the index futures. Apple shares actually rose after market last night. They reported holiday quarter revenues that exceeded market expectations. Pretty firm rebound in iPhone demand and surging sales of their wearable devices, particularly the AirPods. Um, this obviously from top level very important for Apple's long-term strategy. The refresh rate of phones, given their average selling price now is much higher meaning that contract terms generally, which a few years ago would have been yearly, are now more close to 3 years. And so a dependency then on, on service applications and wearables is, is particularly key to their longevity for continued growth going forward. And they've managed to do that successfully. The launch of their streaming TV, Apple+ if you like, has been, I guess, a lukewarm response. They've had competition at the same time from Disney, and obviously it's a fairly competitive space dominated by the likes of Netflix. So overall, uh, fairly positive, uh, and it'd be interesting to see how they perform when we get underway, uh, later on. But they're the first of other big tech giants which will be coming out, uh, today. So pre-market, before we get to Microsoft and Facebook though, you've got Boeing, uh, Boeing I think are about 7.5% of the Dow at the moment, so biggest company in the Dow Jones Index. So Boeing will be coming out. I'll get you the set time, um, when I have it, but normally they would be, uh, 12:30 London time. You've also got General Electric, AT&T, McDonald's, from some of the bigger names. Then aftermarket, Microsoft, Facebook, and then from, I guess you can kind of put them in with the FANG type names in terms of it being highly sensitive. I mean, Tesla, Tesla, I saw some stats this morning, their valuation is bigger than Ford and General Motors combined. It's now bigger than Volkswagen, even though they sell a fraction of the same amount of cars, obviously. So it's always quite interesting to see. They typically see large swings on their corporate earnings on a quarter-to-quarter quarter basis. So do be aware of those earnings reports. Calendar-wise, what have we got today? Well, there's a couple of different things. Uh, for this morning it is pretty quiet, there's not a great deal to monitor. But as we get into the afternoon, we've got the trade balance number coming out at 1:30, um, and we've got pending home sales at 3 o'clock. You've got the weekly inventories coming out at 3:30. And with that in mind, let's just have a quick look at the APIs from last night so we're all up to speed. The best place to get the APIs from a top-level summary is actually ZeroHedge because they have like a regular way of which they represent the data, which is probably the neatest way to look at it. You just need to scroll back a couple of stories and you'll be able to find it. So just bear with me for 30 seconds and let me find it. Here you go. So these were the numbers last night. Make it a bit bigger. So you've had a crude drawdown of 4.27 million. Expectations were for a slight build of 500,000. Uh, the Cushing number was a build of 1 million. Expectations were for a drawdown of just shy of that. Gasoline, a build of 3.27 million. Distillates, drawdown of $141,000. If you actually look at the crude chart from last night, let me just quickly transition my screens and show you. So when the data came out, I mean, this— the crude market obviously somewhat replicating the S&P in a sense that as the dust settles on the shakeout at the beginning of the week from the coronavirus, that fear about the impact on demand for crude oil products starts to dissipate with that renewed kind of sentiment being more positive. And so you can see here again, you target the gap fill on the break of the range, and then the data actually that came out last night was this candlestick here. You can see then initially was a positive, we came back, but we kind of clawed up higher. So yeah, the infantry levels to be monitored. They obviously provide intraday short-term swing in price, but I wouldn't be looking for too much unless completely outlying. There's a lot of other things going on at the moment globally, but the headline draw was 4.27 million. Other than that, the Fed, obviously the highlight of the evening. However, I, I do think that from a trader's point of view, what's going to be way more interesting is the Bank of England tomorrow. Because it's going to be a bit of a knife edge, uh, on the vote, and the split is likely to be mixed on whether they will hold or cut. I think the Bank of England will be much more interesting than the Fed. However, we will be covering that, of course, in full. All right, that's it from my side. Let me hand you over to Sam, and I wish you guys a good day. Thanks very much.

Yeah, hi guys, good morning. Uh, let's get the, the S&P into picture here and just remove a couple of these, these lines. And, uh, yeah, yesterday's trade certainly passed the cash open initial blip lower to come higher. A couple of those resistance levels were filled, and you can see in early trade today, uh, the gap was closed. Inevitable, perhaps. Uh, I know there's a few people certainly in the second stage of the program that traded that fantastically. It was almost like free money watching that go higher and higher. A couple of times it did pull back, and that was just the opportunity to get in again. What happens now will be key. 32.90 and a half is your level to the upside, and let's keep a watch on that. Above there, it's almost like, well, Monday, Tuesday didn't happen, uh, and therefore that makes the S&P not too far away from the all-time high again, which would be just remarkable to say that, uh, after everything that's gone on in 2020 so far, you're less than 1.5% away. However, this is a key resistance level, and there are plenty of, uh, support points below that. If they go, things can start to get ugly. And, you know, if we We hold that 3280 level, uh, to the downside. You can see we kind of tested it already, so I'd mark that up. It is also the Friday low as well. Got messy, to be fair, yesterday evening after that first test, but I still have it on, uh, just a bit below where we're trading horizontally anyway. 3272.5, another point where I'd be looking at if we get a couple of trend lines. As you know, I, uh, can't live without those. It's get those on to drive, uh, through yesterday on the cash open. Bits of support in that area around yesterday, I'd have that on as a potential for some support in the mix if we were to come lower. And then, you know, you are looking at any of these previous highs that could also act as the same thing. If we look above where we're trading, uh, again, you've got quite a lot of these horizontal support points to keep an eye on. I know a few people will look to get the fibs from the bottom to the top and the top to the bottom, vice versa, to look for potential areas. And so, so be it. Um, I would just— now I've got this on the 15-minute— I'd have your areas marked up like this and I just leave it. Just leave it until price comes to those points. There's no real need to get involved in the mix between between 32.90 and 80, in that 10-point range. Wait for those levels to come in, make a decision when it's there. Fine, does the risk-reward make sense and so on. But early hours, 8:37, is much really going to happen now? Probably not, probably not. Let's have a quick look over that euro, which on the weekly trend line yesterday we were talking about, it's, uh, it's tested it and it's tested it and, and went, went below early hours again this morning. So it's bring that in there to keep a watch on that. We've got the Fed tonight. Do we confirm the week below there? Because if we do, well, what's stopping it going down to that low that we had last year? And then, you know, I'm just gonna move this out the way of the camera. Low 2017, where's that mark up? We're not far away, uh, as well from there, which would be a multi-year trend line, 3 years, uh, in play. And if that goes Oh la la for the euro. But Fed today, or this evening I should say, UK time, and of course anything can happen there. If we just get those trend channels on, and we will of course be live on YouTube later going through some of these levels longer term. And, you know, trying to necessarily predict what's going to happen on these points is, is not always the, the easiest thing. But just putting this on the weekly rough sort of trend channel on there. You can see that's a bit of a guide you would look to have. So in the quieter period today, would you want to get too heavily involved in the euro? Probably not. You can see that trend line here, it's, it's rough, but on that week you'd expect that. You can see it still acts as resistance once we broke— once we have broken through. So have that on, uh, as a bit of a guide to, to price. If we do get up there, that's, uh, you know, a very important line in the sand. Uh, yesterday's low, obviously an area where price could be drifting towards. Now that S1 getting a bit choppy, uh, the previous lows of the day, uh, around 1.1043, got some nice price action. There was Monday's low, we broke through it yesterday to find resistance before eventually breaking through. So that's an area to keep an eye on. But other really than Okay, the pivot, that point, uh, the lows of yesterday and that trend line. I'd be a wait-and-see for the euro. Not looking to get too much involved in the dollar before this evening. Um, certainly one of those days where if, uh, if it's going slow, there's no need to go chasing. Uh, the pound, we bring in that, that trend line on the daily. Uh, another session where we were drawn towards it. Let's just get that in and It doesn't want to break yet. It does not want to break yet. And make no, make no mistake about it, there would have been people that are short once that trend line broke, inverted commas, yesterday and are now worried a bit. Remember, it's all about that daily close, certainly on this level, because just on those lows you can see the importance horizontally of this point from the beginning, uh, what's that? Yeah, end of October, 31st of October. Interesting day that, or wasn't to be. Uh, then November, and then as of course this year as well. So can we get the close below that trend line? Possibly today, but then of course you've got the, uh, Super Thursday, Bank of England. Um, it'll be really interesting where we close the week, really interesting. And I think, you know, put my— I don't even think it's necessarily putting your neck out there— close below the week there and we drift lower. Because you're going to have, you know, reasons that the, uh, the Bank of England, uh, were more dovish than expected. And I think we, we can get 1.2831 by the end of next week. If they're— if we close above that trend line, most likely they've been hawkish, and I don't see much stopping, uh, 1.32. It's a wait and see for the pound, uh, as simple as that. Whether you want to get involved too much in the morning now, you know, it's up to you. But there's a nice Resistance point around 130.60, good price action there. And of course that trend line, keep a watch on that. We are starting to get these lows. Does it mark up as a trend line? Yeah, it does. Look at that, lovely. 1, 2, 3, keep a watch on that as well. Oil, putting this on the longer term chart, have we found the bottom? Have we found the bottom? What do people think? Uh, for oil. Let me know in Trading Live and YouTube. Uh, drawing this horizontally on those lows, I think people would have perhaps expected a bit more to come down and be attracted to this area, uh, between sort of $51 and the low that we made. Uh, I don't necessarily think we're, we're out the woods just yet. Let's have a quick look at some potential levels intraday that are important. You know, if we bring in those pivot points again, which I like having on, get a trend line on from those lows, and just for later on perhaps just looking at these levels for where price could, uh, eventually hold up. The gap has been filled in early trade, just like the S&P. So the next kind of points to keep aware of would be any of these previous lows or highs as an area of resistance. Whether oil has found that low or not remains to be seen, but certainly $51 to $52 is a very important point, uh, on the futures market. Uh, there, R1, the high from Friday evening, looks to be like a decent enough resistance level. Uh, $55.16 would be an ideal place I'd like to get in, just on that breakdown that we had back on the 24th as well. Quick look over gold to wrap it before looking at the, the DAX. Gold drifted down yesterday, uh, broke through the, uh, level of support. There's a couple people that took the short on here, and this is a really good lesson. I'm just going to go through quickly. You get gold pushing lower, breaks the low of the day, breaks, um, Monday's area support, the gap, and it's about now, where do you get in for the retest? You got the S1, which would attract people. But where did this move really start? And you can argue it's a break of these areas of support here, whether the selling pressure keeps on. So if I'm going short S1, I want my stop above there, uh, which would probably, you know, be too big, and rightly so. So for me, if S1 worked, fine. Don't want it, you know, missed that opportunity, but my risk reward is intact. Next area you're looking at is the low from Monday, or even from what would have been today, yesterday. But then the stop probably again is a bit too big, and you can see what happens. It comes to S1 and, you know, goes straight through, gets a bit choppy. But it's not really until it comes to those levels there— and it's putting this on that, you know, 5 minutes— I got that area wrong here. You can see where that selling comes over, price comes back, and, you know, both S1, yesterday's low, the day before that's low, don't work. And, and that's when you get that real push from So it's a good lesson, just keeping an eye where did that selling start from, why can't that happen again. And gold since then has pushed lower, uh, so, and that level comes on the R1 today. So keep a watch on that pivot, looks pretty key below where we're trading. I mean, you can see why today's lows— I mean, this is just what I just said the other way around. Where did the buying start on the 24th? Once you broke these areas of support, big push through, comes back and finds a level of support there as well. So you've got 3 big levels for me for gold: 1583.3, 1576.8, and 1568.2. Couple trend lines on those lows as well, probably to, to have marked up. And where does that third test come in? You guessed it, today's low. Let's have a look at the DAX as quickly now. Gone through the open, 45 minutes up, down, in the middle, undecided on it, on where it wants to go, what it wants to do. Choppy on the 60-minute, um, that gap hasn't been filled. If US stocks decide to run away at any point, keep a watch on, on this would be my advice. Hope you all have a good trading day. Catch us on YouTube later, and I look forward to catching up with all of you later on.