Morning Briefing - 31st July 2018

Okay guys, good morning. Let's get this briefing up and running. Final day of July. Um, I guess the first chart— I'm showing my usual charts here, but I'm going to slide in the one that matters from yesterday's session. This is the NASDAQ. This is the daily chart of the US tech index. And what we saw yesterday was another slide. And let me just kind of draw a rectangle around yesterday's candle. So certainly another session that's, that's off the back of Friday's very negative move. And, and the key thing about this is we're down onto this trend line now. Um, depending on how you draw it and depending on which press article you read, some are saying this trend line has broken I'd say it's being tested. I think today, what happens today is critical from a technical point of view. Also, I mean, ultimately it looks like it's going to be down to Apple to determine whether this trend line breaks or not, because the biggest stock in this index makes up about 10% of the index, is Apple, and their earnings are being released after the close tonight. So really, depending what happens to Apple's share price following its pre- and post-earnings report is basically going to determine whether or not this trend line holds or whether it breaks. But certainly two very heavy sessions in a row for the tech industry. If you're looking at your kind of headlines this morning, this is what you're seeing: Tech Rout Slam Stocks. Now, we did have some upside for oil yesterday. The dollar slipped slightly. I'll have a look at these charts in a minute. But just let's focus in on this tech story first. And if we have a look at this, because obviously it's been a— well, first and foremost, it's been a phenomenal year for tech. You know, that chart of the NASDAQ— let me just go back— the chart of the NASDAQ I'm showing you here, this, this top we put in place last week, that's the all-time ever high. And if I go on a weekly time period I mean, this is the thing, right? The Nasdaq smashed the kind of January, February highs that we had, whereas the other indices haven't. The S&P is trading actually below, quite a bit below its January high, whereas the Nasdaq smashed it and continued to drive higher. So this is, you know, we've had a lot of tech outperformance this year, of course. Now that's been driven by these FAANG stocks. FANG— Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet, Netflix— these, these, these giant tech companies. And what's actually happened off the back of obviously this earnings season, generally by and large has been very solid apart from some notable exceptions. So Facebook, Facebook shares down 26% now following their earnings report that indicated perhaps some slowing user growth. Um, Twitter down over 20%, Netflix down over 20%. Um, you know, these stocks have suddenly hit a speed bump, and this has led to the FANG index here actually now in, in correction territory. So over the last few days, it's dropped now more than 10%. So we're 10.2% off the high from back in June. So a market correction is officially when a market has dropped 10% from its recent high. A bear market, well, that's when the— it doesn't matter what the market is, that's when the market's price is more than 20% below its recent high. But certainly the tech industry under pressure here, having been the absolute darling of the stock market for the last 6, 7 months. So I mentioned that Apple will be, um, ultimately the, the one that determines, um, how this thing plays out. And let me just show you, uh, a chart here. So we got Apple earnings tonight, and obviously, well, I'm looking at this chart that's looking at their revenue growth, looking at their different sections of their company, um, And we've got the iPhone sales, which obviously dominates still their business from a revenue perspective. And actually, iPhone sales have been pretty solid this year in 2018, jumped in Q1 and kind of just ticked slightly higher as well. We're anticipating in Q2, some of this is due to the higher price point. I don't think it's not really more iPhones being sold necessarily. You could argue, or well, some argue the smartphone market's pretty saturated. But this is a lot to do with the success of the iPhone X, iPhone 10, which came in at a much higher price point. So even though perhaps handset sales are fairly constant, when you're able to ramp up price like that, then obviously it has a notable effect on revenue growth. But of course, what Apple are trying to do is engineer themselves away from being so over-dependent on one product, the iPhone, as people— because if you look at Samsung's earnings overnight, well, well, their, their numbers really disappointed. They had, uh, their profits, um, declined for the first time in 7 quarters. So another indication that perhaps handset smartphone sales are, are no longer growing like they used to. So Apple are trying to engineer themselves away from being so dependent on that. And of course, this this other services, that their services section of the business, which is thinking about things like iTunes and Apple Play and, and, and the like, that's actually now looking to clock in— what, what their aim is by 2020, they want the services part of their business to have a revenue of 50, over $50 billion. What we're expecting them to announce tonight is that in Q2 just the services part of their business— forget iPhones, forget Macs, forget, you know, tablets, iPads, you know, forget all that— their services business alone is expecting to clock in at $9.6 billion worth of revenue just in that one quarter. So it's a monster business in its own right. It's just that the iPhone sales, of course, dwarf that. The other thing to note about Apple tonight And if I just go back to that Nasdaq chart, you know, are we going to see this trendline hold or not? And it is a very important level and it will be really down to Apple as to what happens here. On the downside, there's no support really until you get down to 7,000. Could draw the line there, which was the top that we had back here in May. But anywhere around 7,000, which is a couple hundred points below where we're trading now. Is really the next key support on the downside. So the other key thing to note about Apple is what's happening at the moment is we have the battle of the Goliaths because we've got a kind of three-way run, three-way battle to see who can become the first $1 trillion business. That's where their market cap is valued at $1 trillion. And you've got, you've got Apple and Amazon and Google via their listed company called Alphabet. These guys are gunning for the— that, that mantle, the first-ever company to be valued at a trillion bucks. So Apple need to— their share price needs to rally about 7% from where it is now for them to make it to a trillion. However, there is a slight caveat, and that is that Apple have been buying back shares. So as they've been repatriating a lot of their foreign cash thanks to Donald Trump's tax cut They've been buying back shares. Remember, market capitalization is calculated by share price multiplied by shares in existence. But, but of course, the, the actual amount of shares in existence has been reducing as Apple have been buying them back. So actually, that's one thing that will play a negative in terms of their market cap. Each quarterly earnings, they update us on how many shares they bought back in that quarter. And we're actually expecting them— quite, quite a staggering statistic here— we're expecting them to announce that in Q2 they themselves bought 25 billion shares back. So quite an extraordinary kind of statistic that, and that will hurt their market capitalization. Not that they really care, but in terms of that race to a trillion bucks, their share price could rally 7%. But unfortunately, actually, that would give them a trillion on the basis of how many shares were in issuance back in Q1. But that's likely to have dropped. Anyway, just a slight sort of sideshow to keep an eye out on later on. But Apple earnings will be hitting the wires. This will be after the market close tonight. So what else is going on then? Let's have a look. Well, we've had some key news from the Bank of Japan. And, um, I mean, there's been a lot of speculation, of course, um, over the last week and a half as to whether or not the Bank of Japan are going to, um, alter their monetary policy or not. And I was showing you yesterday how, uh, let me transition my screenshot and we can look at the Japanese 10-year government bond yield. And you can see in this chart how speculation has been rife and Japanese bond yields have jumped higher. And I was talking about this in yesterday's briefing and the implications that it potentially has globally and the implications it has for things like US 10-year yields. And maybe, you know, Japanese yields on the upside could push US 10-year yields up through 3%. This might lead to things like dollar strength, which could hurt the emerging market space and so on. But actually what happened is that we just kind of had that press conference finalized, and all they've done, I mean, they haven't delivered a major change to their policy is the basic summation. What they've done is changed a sentence in the statement that's talking about the yield, 'cause they've been anchoring this yield on the 10-year at, at or around 0%, okay? But they've changed the language to say that yields may move upwards or downwards to some extent, which actually is hardly a change at all. Their original statement had said that yields can move, um, uh, well, no, yields will be around 0%, and they've just moved it to yields can move up and downwards to some extent. The other thing they've done is they've introduced some forward guidance on interest rates. And they've said that interest rates will remain extremely low for an extended period of time, which is kind of just stealing the language that Mario Draghi at the ECB was using a few years back. But so what's happened? Japanese 10-year yields have moved back down. Japanese equities are slightly higher off the back of this. Um, but what I wanted to do was look at this Japanese stimulus program because it's 5 years old now, and I want to look at it and I want to look at the size of it, and I want to ask and propose a question. Firstly, why are Japan pumping in so much money? Because their QE program, which has been running for 5 years uh, total ¥6 trillion per year of asset purchases. And basically, because they've run out of government bonds to buy, they're now buying ¥6 trillion of stock index ETFs every year. That's another change they made last night because they've decided to spend a higher proportion of that money on the TOPIX index ETF rather than the Nikkei. But basically, the Bank of Japan are the biggest buyers of stocks in town. Why are they doing this? Because they're trying to pump inflation. This is the big Achilles heel of the Japanese economy for the last few decades. They've been trapped in a deflation scenario. Let me show you on a maximum here. It doesn't quite tell the story. But if you look at the '90s, look at the back end of the '90s into the noughties. This is where they were trapped in a deflation scenario. Then we had the crisis, which meant they remained in a deflationary scenario. And then we had a blip higher in 2015. But that's all to do with just sales tax being increased, which they're going to do again in October, by the way. So we're going to get another artificial blip higher, which is just prices going up simply because the government are finally raising sales tax to a sensible level. But the bottom line is they're still trapped in an environment that's way below the inflation levels that a solid economy should have, which is 2%. But what I wanted to say was, if you look on a 5-year basis, 2% is their target, right? Go back to 2012. This is when they started their monster QE program. Don't forget, their interest rates are at -0.1%. This is where— start 2014. This is where they increased the sales tax. Which gave you an artificial blip higher, and 12 months later that came out of the equation, and, and inflation's really been below 1% ever since. Okay, now ¥6 trillion a year buying ETF, stock index ETFs, interest rates at -0.1%, and the effect it's had Well, there hasn't been an effect. What I want to ask the Bank of Japan is, when are you going to realize it's not working? And the problem is, the longer they go without realizing it— I mean, this is 5 years of the most aggressive inflationary monetary policy in history, and it has not produced any inflation. So when are they going to wake up to this? What— just to give you a sense of how dangerous this is, Here's a great chart from the FT. This is looking at the size of central banks' balance sheet as a percentage of GDP. Now we've got the Fed on here. The Fed's QE program back in 20— 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014. Their program was basically 5 years. They pumped over $4 trillion into the system. But look, It's only just over 20% of their— the size of their economy. Right. The Fed's balance sheet, the amount of money they've pumped into the system via QE, is just over 20% of the size of the economy. The Bank of Japan are knocking on the door of 100%. That means that the value of assets that the Bank of Japan own as a result of their QE program is now almost the entire size of the Japanese economy. Their balance sheet is stuffed full of government bonds and Japanese equity ETFs. Now, what happens if the Japanese economy goes through a recession, which it inevitably will at some point? Well, then you've got the Bank of Japan uber-exposed to any kind of violent, you know, asset price swings. And this makes the underlying system all the more vulnerable Um, I think this is, this is a great chart. Uh, print it out, stick it on your wall. This is Armageddon in the making. Uh, it's just a question of when the time bomb blows up, which I don't think it will be this year, might not even be next year. But I think the longer that Japan continue with their policy without realizing that it's not working um, potentially the more trouble Japan will be in when the next crisis hits. So something to be mindful of. Um, anyway, that's the Bank of Japan. That story is done. Their meeting is finished. Um, actually, U.S. yields— let's just have a quick look because I, I was mentioning yesterday how sensitive, um, global markets are to this. So I'm just going to show you the U.S. 10-year yield here. Um, ticked back lower off the back of that Japanese Central Bank monetary policy meeting. Okay, so there's definitely correlation here. The Japanese monetary policy situation, it's not just about Japan, as I was saying yesterday. It actually carries implications for the rest of the planet. Um, okay, so we've talked about the FANG correction, uh, we've talked about Apple earnings, we've talked about the Bank of Japan. Let's have a look at the data that came in overnight. So China delivered their manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs. Um, really important data, this, um, both disappointed. So on the manufacturing front, here's the chart, uh, 51.2. That was only just a smidge lower than the 51.3 that was expected. Um, but as you can see, that's the lowest reading for 5 months. And actually, if you take out February, that's the lowest reading in over 12 months. Um, so not great. Then the services PMI was even worse, unfortunately, here. Even worse in so much as it was 54, which is a higher number obviously, but worse in that, um, a full 1-point drop from the previous month. We had expected 54.9 and it came in at 54, and that's the weakest reading, as you can see here on this chart, since August 2017. You go back on a 5-year basis, other than that August print, that's basically the worst we've had since 2016. So there's generally an underlying concern about the Chinese economic growth momentum situation. You know, these numbers certainly on the manufacturing side hint at the— well, looks like this is evidence that this trade war risk is actually now beginning to bite. And Chinese manufacturers, uh, are coming under a bit more pressure as they're seeing tariffs being slapped on their goods that are arriving into the U.S. And so that's hurting sales. And so of course this then backs up to the production end of the cycle, and then these manufacturers perhaps start to reduce production in the face of that. And this is why these PMI numbers are starting to weaken. So This is one of the big risks for the second half of 2018. It's China. It's the Chinese economy. We've seen the reserve— sorry, the People's Bank of China make a couple of moves from a stimulative point of view. They've cut the reserve requirement ratio a couple of times to try and just boost or just pump in some stimulus. So that's definitely an indicator that the government is worried that momentum is dropping. When you get these PMI readings come in like they have, then that just— that, that, that risk just slightly elevates. Okay, so this is definitely something to, to look out for in the second half of 2018. People are going to be all over Chinese data trying to gauge how this trade war risk is panning out. We haven't heard much on the trade war risk front for a while. It's been, what, a week or so maybe since The Trump administration stepped up the threats to actually their maximum, where they're saying now they're looking at putting tariffs on the full $500+ billion worth of goods that travel from China into the US per year. On the negotiation front, we haven't really had much by way of development. So, and this is something to think about, because what you've seen in the last 24 hours I have seen two major global banks, possibly three— one of the research reports was a bit ambiguous— but Morgan Stanley and Citigroup global macro analysts have both produced a report in the last 24 hours that are suggesting that maybe things are looking like we're at the end of a bull run. You've had Citigroup and Morgan Stanley make calls that maybe we've run too far. This is Morgan Stanley's analysis, and what they're saying is that you're seeing a move from, um, momentum growth strategies back into more value strategies. So what does that mean? So when you're an investor, you're either looking to buy shares because you're looking for the companies that you're buying to go through a rapid revenue and profit growth phase. So you're buying the shares because you think they're going to get a lot more expensive as that company powers on through its growth cycle. So that's momentum investing. That's the blue line here. And we've seen in the last few days, it's the— it's those kind of stocks, those growth stocks, that have really sharply corrected lower. What's happened? Well, where's the money gone? Well, look, it's going into more value plays. So this white line is the value stocks. That's stocks where you're not expecting necessarily rapid profit and revenue growth, but you do think that the share price of these companies is undervaluing that business. Or you could say it's more about spinning into the more defensive sectors. And those of you that were doing the equity sector portfolio management simulation with me yesterday will know exactly what I'm talking about here. There seems to be a bit of a rotation of cash out of cyclicals, those more growth-oriented stocks, into more of the defensives where you're getting, you know, investors looking for a little bit of protection through owning shares in businesses where revenue streams are very stable. So these are your utilities or your healthcare stocks. Okay, so this is quite interesting. But outside of that, the other thing that Morgan Stanley is saying, not only are you seeing that rotation, which is typical of investors moving into that late cycle phase of their thinking, meaning that maybe a recession is coming in 12 months' time, but also you've got a general downward trending shape to both of these kind of categories anyway. So we've seen Morgan Stanley, um, saying that things are looking overheated. Citigroup issued a report yesterday, and what Citigroup was saying— and let me show you on the S&P here— they've got, they've got half a point here, Citigroup. I don't know what your opinion is, but I'm going to go to a day— I'm going to go to a weekly chart on my S&P 500, uh, chart, chart here, and I'm going to zoom in a little bit. And what I'm going to do, let me just type tidy this up by getting rid of any lines and stuff. So look, this is the all-time high, and this was set back end of January, start of February. And then we had a monster sell-off, okay? We had a 10% correction in the space of a couple of weeks, as you can see. Now, why did the market sell off? And what Citigroup are saying is, well, why did that correction happen? And now we've rebounded almost all of it. Because here we are, we topped out at 2850 last week, almost back to that top, almost. Now we've retraced almost all of it. Well, is it justified that we've retraced almost all of it? Have the reasons for the sell-off in February, have they now gone away? And their argument is that the reasons for the sell-off in February have not gone away, and they're absolutely still present. So what were the reasons? Well, number one, it was a fear about tightening monetary policy. And what's just happened over the last couple of weeks? Well, the United States has seen some fantastic economic data. We've just seen some strong earnings from most companies, a couple of exceptions, of course. And then we've seen a GDP print for quarter 2 announced on Friday showing the most powerful growth we've seen in years. Okay, this should all culminate in the Fed statement tomorrow night being hawkish, you know, really making that confirmation that they're moving to 4 hikes this year. So that'll be one more hike in September, another hike in December. And that's really what— that was the big catalyst for this sell-off back in February, the fear that the Fed would accelerate rate hikes. And here we are in July, and I'm sorry, but the Fed are still accelerating rate hikes. So that hasn't changed. The other big reason for the big sell-off earlier in the year was trade war risk. It was Trump starting to get aggressive about delivering on his promises from his election campaign where he would get tough on trade. And, you know, obviously this is now— this is a scenario that's been running for months. And here we are without any resolution. And, you know, we still got threats that they're going to— slap 25% tariffs on $500+ billion worth of goods from China. So it's not like that risk has disappeared. So Fed tightening risk is still here. One counterargument, I guess you could say, is, well, we were worried back earlier in the year that the Fed would accelerate tightening just as the economy might be losing momentum. Now you could argue, well, that print on GDP on Friday shows that far from it. Actually, the economy is accelerating. So actually, you know what? We can sustain a faster rate-hiking cycle. So that's the kind of counterargument. And then the other counterargument on the trade war risk is, well, we've just got used to Trump's style, where he's uber-aggressive on threats, gets the counterparty around the negotiating table, and then does a deal. And so maybe we're just expecting that to happen. So while Citigroup have an argument, there's always a counter one. But Citigroup and Morgan Stanley are suggesting that the narrow nature of this rally in the last few months— when I say narrow, I mean it's been driven by actually quite a narrow set of companies, particularly the tech stocks. And now you're seeing that tech story just tip over with Facebook and Twitter and Netflix all correcting lower. And Apple are the key here tonight. I can't tell you how important this Apple news is tonight. If the Apple news tonight is bad, well then you're gonna have Facebook, Twitter, Netflix, Apple, and I'm sorry, but not even the S&P can weather that storm. And if Apple joins the group of underperforming tech stocks, then that could be something quite serious. However, Apple earnings could be fantastic tonight, in which case that could steady the ship. On that tech nervousness. And we could still yet get a launch and a proper test of the high from earlier on in the year. So it's a pretty interesting moment for this rally. Is it sustainable? Is it even justified? Can it continue or are we about to get a correction? It's all in the mix and I think it can play out this week. We can really see the answer to that question answered. Okay, um, all right, I've covered off most of what I wanted to cover. Let's just now focus in on what the day ahead brings us by looking at the economic data calendar. And there's just a ridiculous amount on here. I mean, I literally can't remember a data calendar that was so packed. Um, we've obviously had the stuff overnight China delivered weak numbers. Japanese monetary policy didn't really change. Australia delivered strong building approvals numbers. So we're now moving into Europe, and from the European perspective, we've already had quite a bit of data early doors. So German retail sales came in better than expected, 1.2% month on month. Better than the expected 1%. This is June data, by the way, so it's a little bit old. Uh, French CPI saw inflation tick higher. Um, this is for the month of July, 2.6%, up from, um, the expected 2.4. And, um, what else? That's pretty much it. German unemployment— sorry, we've just had— just come in unchanged at 6.2%. The unemployment change was -6,000, slightly worse than the, the drop of 10,000 that we were looking for, but pretty much in line. So that's what we've had so far. And then it's about 10 PM really, because 10 PM's packed for data, and we've got some interesting stuff in here by way of mainly the two key elements will be the eurozone inflation print, and this is for the month of July. We've had all the German inflation numbers yesterday. We had France announcing this morning. So by the time you get the full EU one, we kind of know what's going to happen, but we're expecting 2% year on year, um, unchanged from the previous month. And once you take out food and energy, we're expecting 1.2%. So still well off the ECB's target of 2%, of course. Also, we're going to get the GDP print, first look at Q2 growth. Expecting 2.2% annualized growth rate to maintain this solid 2018 because Europe is finally back this year in terms of actually delivering some proper growth, and we're expecting that to continue into Q2. This afternoon then, we got some June— so slightly old inflation-related data from the United States at 1:30. I get Canadian GDP for those of you trading the Canadian dollar, Chicago PMI. We get the API inventories later on tonight. Okay, then earnings. So before the cash open, we'll get Pfizer, Procter Gamble. But the big one, as I've said, tomorrow— Apple— are not tomorrow, tonight— Apple delivering earnings. Be aware, we've got some huge big guns out of Europe reporting. So BP, for example, Standard Chartered, Credit Suisse, all in here. So a busy day on the earnings front. Let's just finish off on the charts just to look at what's been happening just this morning, um, and just cover off some of those assets because I've mainly been talking about stocks up until this point. Let's close down my S&P chart here. Let's have a look at oil because that had a notable move yesterday. I'm just gonna— you know what, let's I'm going to start this— this chart's getting a little busy. I'm going to start again. Here's the oil chart then. And what happened yesterday, we pushed up through that high point from last week that was set on Thursday, up through the $70 handle. We just pulled back below that this morning, actually. But sorry, let me get this. Yeah, that's on a 240 2-minute chart. Let me go to a daily first because, you know, we're kind of right in the middle. I, I had a fib series on the sell-off, mid-July sell-off. So from this high down to this low, which kind of worked nicely, uh, back on the 20th of July with the 50% fib being very influential as a key resistance. We're flirting with this $70 handle, which is the 38.2 fib. Um, so yeah, yesterday's move took us to the highest levels we've seen in a week or Um, but as you can see, more broadly, we are still right in the middle of the big rally that we had June, mid-June through to mid-July. And on that basis, um, yesterday we managed to get up through the 50% fib of that range. All right, let me delete these fibs and move in a little bit to look at some levels, because what's going to happen today? Well, I guess we're waiting for the inventory data as usual, which come tonight from the API. It'll come tomorrow from the Department of Energy. Uh, let me just add my pivot levels on here. So, um, yeah, we've kind of been consolidating that little overnight sell-off over the last few hours, uh, just, just dropping off that high point that we had from yesterday. Be aware of this level from last week, which has been good resistance ever since we had that drop lower last night. Good resistance coming in around this 69.90 area. So that's the kind of immediate barrier on the upside. So the dollar weakened a touch yesterday, which helped. Although I'm just looking at gold, so just thinking about commodities, be aware that we're just down testing the low point that we had on Friday, which is the low point that we had on the 24th. So we're right down at critical levels here on gold from a technical point of view, I go to a slightly longer-term chart. Um, this, this double bottom, 24th of July, 27th of July, double bottom from last week. We're testing it now, 1227. Um, below that, of course, we got the low of the year, which is down at, uh, around the 1221 area. Okay, uh, so gold just under a little bit of pressure this morning. Um, otherwise, let's look at currencies before we then finish. Um, so EURUSD has been nice and solid. Um, again, nice strong day yesterday. We've added to that briefly this morning. R1 just coming in as a bit of resistance. We got the high point from, um, last week, uh, Thursday's high at 1.1787. It's not the high of last week, sorry, because that was earlier on in the week on the 23rd. I've actually got a really nice Now that I got this chart open, I've got a really nice example of a great trade yesterday from one of our budding interns. Uh, delivered a great trade here, and I thought I'd just share this with you, um, in terms of a good example of how to do it. So here was the entry point, the blue arrow, where they went long, and they went long on the break of the earlier high and the breakup through this red line, which is R1. Okay, so bullish technical breakout, classic long. So getting long on the pullback, buying just above R1. And then they scaled out of this trade in 4 stages. Scale out number 1, booking profit. All right, this one's perhaps, if anything, a touch early, but nevertheless, um, booking in a touch of profit early on just to kind of settle the nerves, buy a little bit of patience, if you like. Now that you've got a little bit of P&L locked in, can help to settle you down and give you a bit more patience to be, be able to hold out for some of your key targets. So next target was here, R2. And so patience, and this is a 5-minute chart, so it didn't take too long to get to R2, maybe 30 minutes, okay. Then booking in some profit. So half of the trade has been taken off at this point. Okay, um, then it's key patience waiting for the break of R2. And here, this took from 10:40 through to eventually 1:55, and then the break came. And great support at R2, which gives you confidence that this is going to be an extension of the trend. Waiting, waiting, waiting, you can get the break to a new high, and then booking in another part of the profit, then another few nice strong candles higher, and finally coming out the trade here. So the trade was exited at 2:55, the entry point was at 10 AM. That's a 5-hour long trade using patience, using technicals, understanding the fundamental trend, and, and just really taking the full potential out of a trade. This is 5 hours This is how you trade. You know, it's not about in and out, put a trade on. Oh, quick, I got a little bit of profit. Quick, let's get it before I lose it. And coming out your trade about 45 seconds later. You know, you've got to buy, you've got to have some patience with these strategies. And this is a fantastic example of that. So excellent stuff. So yeah, anyway, EURUSD still on the up this morning. Cable less keen, as we were talking about yesterday. It was really that eurozone inflation prints we've had over the last 24 hours just enabled that euro to tick a little bit higher, thinking about ECB policy end and so on. Okay, right, I'm gonna leave you to it. I've gone on for long enough. Lots of— lots to take in today. 10 AM key data from Europe. We've got some earnings, especially tonight off Apple, and that'll be critical with that whole tech story. Right, enjoy the session, guys. Thanks very much.