Rumours of Theresa May's resignation likely to resurface today

Okay, so very good morning, Thursday 16th of May. Hope everyone is doing well. Uh, give you an overview of what we're going to cover in the briefing today. Going to have a catch-up about how things closed yesterday. Obviously, as you can see to the side of me, the probably the main headline of yesterday and what caused a sharp recovery in markets came after this delay in what was targeted on the European side, in Japan, on the kind of escalating global trade war. So it came as a surprise, of course, given how he's dealt with China in the last week. I'm also going to talk about China and their Treasury holdings because we spoke about this briefly yesterday, but actual data has come out given the latest update of Treasury holdings in China. I'm going to talk about Brexit. Obviously, the pound has been continuing to decrease throughout this week, and I think there's potentially a strong chance of rumors that could materialize in regards to Theresa May's resignation. Not that I think, to be absolutely clear, that that's going to happen, but the rumor mill— I feel you could pretty much get a sweet spot in the time of the session today when I think that those rumors could definitely materialize, and I'll explain why. Italy, a lot of movement we saw yesterday, a bit of a divergence in the Bund and, and BTP movement. And so we'll have a look at that. And oil prices continuing to track higher, albeit fairly moderately, but the supply-side shock risk still outweighing somewhat the situation on the potential reduction in demand on the China-US fallout. And then we have some Australian jobs data overnight. So if you're looking at the Aussie, it is a touch softer at the moment. It did blip lower but recovered that initial knee-jerk movement. But all the signs are pointing towards the RBA does need to cut rates and follow their kind of neighbor New Zealand and decrease rates for the first time in many years in the near future. So that's what's on the agenda. Let me just have a quick look at the overall charts at the moment, and it's a fairly quiet open this morning, not too much going on. I guess it's a little bit of just pausing for breath. Given what was quite a, a two-story session yesterday. You had the initial, uh, kind of negative buildup, and that was the DAX kind of tracking lower throughout the best part of the European morning, just looking on the center-left chart here. But then obviously you had this big spike up that came. So just looking on these two charts on the left here, the euro, you can see that big green candlestick, and you can see that corresponding as well with the DAX, so both simultaneously moving in the same direction. And this definitely coming, as I briefly described, as Trump weighs a 6-month window for the EU and Japan to curb their auto sales. Now, you know, again, if you look at the composition of the German stock index, the DAX, then the highest kind of collective sector representation is the automobile sector. So your likes of Daimler, VW, Volkswagen, and so on. And US is their biggest export market, and so this is incredibly important for that particular index and that country overall in terms of its economic performance. So definitely there was worries that weighed on markets yesterday morning, given the fact that those— that deadline for the tariffs to kind of reset on a higher amount from the US was due to kick in on Saturday. But basically that's now being kicked down the road. So despite then his dealing with China being very confrontational, he's kind of given the EU and Japan a bit of a pass, at least for the time being. So yeah, a bit of a surprise that caught the market slightly blindsided given the fact that, you know, the odds were tipping toward going down the China route. That didn't happen and we recovered and we pretty much held on to those gains. and that has helped then equities continue to stabilize, at least for the time being, despite some, you know, kind of mixed data. Pretty decent on US housing confidence, but pretty weak on the retail sales front. But overall, these kind of bigger macro stories still dominating, so to speak. Um, let's have a look then on a few other stories. I just wanted to quickly touch upon this as a subject. I'm not going to go into it into great detail because we did do that yesterday, but China has cut its US Treasury holdings to the lowest level since 2017. So we do get monthly updates. It usually comes in the form of what's called TIC data. And so we can see who exactly is buying what volume over the month of US Treasuries and what their current holding levels are. And the position of China slipped to $1.12 trillion for the first time since November. So they got a graphic here, might help to make it a little bit more clear. This is looking at China's treasury holdings, so the holdings of US debt going back to basically when really Trump came in, which was around obviously the latter part of 2016. You can see where we are at the moment, we're touching, uh, that kind of trough that we hit at the end of 2018, but this fractionally below that, so puts us down to the lowest levels we've been since May of 2017. As we know, obviously China having to be quite active in order to buy back their own currency, i.e., selling down treasuries, the dollar, in that sense. So this isn't particularly unexpected, but one thing I think that makes it a little bit more clearer to see is if you look at the monthly net purchases of long-term treasuries. So again, the difference with these two charts is this is the cumulative holdings which are 1.12. This is the month-to-month change, and as you can see here, China is selling treasuries in its most in 2 years. So we're going to go back then all the way to basically the fallout when Trump first came into the, the White House. So if the currency in China does continue to weaken, if their, you know, domestic situation, i.e. Their economy continues to slow down, then you would expect this probably to continue. And also the political instrument of it being that— not that they're going to sell them— that they could decrease the pace, uh, as a, a kind of tool, if you like, in negotiations with the US. So yeah, this is kind of all, I'd say, factored into the market, but quite interesting nonetheless to just look at these within empirical kind of evidence of the, the stats so to speak. The pound, I mentioned, has continued to kind of underperform in the kind of major currency space. This is the headline this morning on Bloomberg, and it's Theresa May faces a new push, basically, as Brexit heads towards its kind of endgame at this point. And one of the most interesting things here out of the whole article— you might have seen yesterday some photos of Theresa May meeting European partners. She was with Macron The problem is not so much with them. The problem is with her own party, of course, and what's going on with the stalemate with the Labour talks about finding a way to break this situation, to find a— in her, in her mind, the delivery then of getting Brexit and this withdrawal bill over the line. Key thing for today from a trading intraday point of view is that first bullet point. Prime Minister will meet the 1922 Committee executive, and that's happening today. That is happening at 11:30 AM this morning. They are meeting in the PM's office. Some of the main officials have spoken on condition of not being named, according to Bloomberg. So I would have it a guess, and you know, if I ask Sam to just pass me the printout that I had. I had a few notes written down. I can give you a bit of added detail here, uh, and that was that the committee meeting in the Premier's Office at 11:30, uh, Thursday to urge Theresa May to basically quit as soon as possible. According to two of its members, the group will ask Theresa May to step down before June 15th, and if she refuses to accept their proposed timeline they could change the rules to allow for another no-confidence vote. That was according to the Conservative MP and Brexit campaigner, uh, Bridgen, who said in an interview with Robert Peston of ITV. So what I'm saying here is that if you are looking on, you do look at the pound, or you're thinking about a potential trade, I would say then, given the timings at 11:30 AM in that meeting, I'd say from midday possibly midday till 1 PM, just given the usual duration of these types of meetings, because I reckon it could be quite abrupt, i.e., I do not see Theresa May resigning today. I think that's an incredibly unlikely scenario, but what definitely could happen is that rumors could definitely materialize, that if she just, they come in, she says absolutely no, the meeting ends abruptly, the rumors will start to swirl on Twitter, and so on. And that could impart some downside pressure into the pound if that were the case. So yeah, definitely something I'd be, be mindful to keep an eye out for, for any, uh, pound traders. Rather than really go through this in, in great detail, I'd probably prefer to just put this infographic into the chat room on Trading Live afterwards. But obviously it's always quite good to have a bit of an overall perspective of where are we at the moment, what's the potential next steps as Theresa May sets this date for a potential vote. Obviously the first funnel at the top is the cross-party talks that are happening with Labour, either produce a deal, which is looking ever more unlikely. So if the cross-party talks fail, so this is the right-hand side, May puts the deal to a vote anyway, and as the press have been speculating, that's likely to be rejected. Well then, for Theresa May, that does definitely increase the odds of it being the endgame for her residency in Number 10, leading to then a leadership race, or May calling a general election, which many believe is what the kind of strategy is anyway of Jeremy Corbyn not wanting to make a deal, not wanting to have a second referendum, which some of his senior colleagues have recommended, him wanting to go down the route of then potentially getting himself into Number 10 through the process of a new general election. Whether or not that in itself would materialize would be yet to be seen. So that's the Brexit side. The other big story going off in Europe, of course, I mentioned briefly about BTPs, and definitely this is something which has been simmering in the background over the recent week. This is Italy. The Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini is seeking to take back the initiative in the upcoming European elections. So of course we, we kind of focus on May and this idea about her having to take part in the European parliamentary elections, but don't forget this is also happening all around Europe, of course. And so this is a great time then for Salvini to try and assert some dominance and try to get more control from the existing coalition between that of the League, his party, and the Five Star Movement. And so this has triggered a bit of a new bout of uncertainty, of more political uncertainties in a country like Italy, which obviously has a fairly precarious financial situation domestically from a fiscal side of things, and also likely to come in direct confrontation with European partners. And timing-wise, that's with the Eurogroup starting today and the ECOFIN meeting tomorrow, where if you remember a few days ago, Salvini told reporters if we need to break some limits— this referring to the debt deficit target— he said, if we need to break some limits like the 3% or the 130-140% rule, we'll just go ahead. So again, we had— we were in this situation probably 5 months ago, and this is when the spread against the bunds was, was very wide. People were monitoring, you know, some of the yields that were hitting these multi-year high levels as a sign of potential new stress in the country. And that was weighing then on pressures for the ECB to do potentially more easing or at least turn more dovish. And that was weighing on the euro. At the moment, this very much is a FTSE MIB BTP issue. But if it continues, and certainly given those aforementioned meetings that are happening with European kind of heads of state, definitely, uh, this Italian situation could spill out into the euro currency. For example, Salvini could be tempted, according to Bloomberg, to pull the plug on the Five Star if the League scores upward of 35% in the European vote. If he wants to seal a new pact with old allies, he'd need the Forza Italia party. And remember, of course, that is the return of the man himself, Mr. Bunga Bunga, uh, Berlusconi, back to the fold. Yes, he is still alive. I know he had some heart conditions, uh, issues a few months ago, but he's still raring to go at the moment. But the Forza Italia party, he would need then to get that extra— about 10% is what's being expected. And then the far-right Brothers of Italy to get around 5%. That would be what would be necessary to to have a credible alternative majority other than the existing one then of what is the Five Star and the League at the moment. So, but again, you know what this spells— political disruptions, uncertainties, new formations of coalitions. And particularly all those parties I just mentioned, if you take the League, the far-right Brothers of Italy, and the Forza Italia, you know, the European ideology's got a bit of a problem on its hand. In terms of, again, this is further fueling that populism kind of sentiment. So yeah, Italy, I feel, is a definite risk on the, on the near horizon. On the oil side of things, again, we've kind of— this has been a recurring theme throughout this week, but this is definitely now— I think that the markets have kind of got over the breakdown in the China-US situation. That's kind of priced in to some extent. And if I said on Monday's briefing, there's not really much more that can come out on that side at this point because Trump's already threatened the secondary next phase of $300 billion. And now we know the level of retaliation that China have done. So that means now focus for the energy market flips back to the supply side shocks. And we're definitely not sure of potential, uh, you know, factors which— just one thing which could spark this off could definitely see oil rally quite aggressively. And this of course comes after you've had a third day of gains in oil, longest gains we've had now in 3 weeks after that quite aggressive pullback we had from that big run-up of Q1. Saudi Arabia have restarted its main cross-country oil pipeline after a drone attack by Iran-backed rebels, while the US has ordered all non-emergency staff, uh, to basically leave Iraq due to increased threats at the moment. So definitely the attacks on the pipeline and the oil tankers in recent days, uh, have, have definitely reignited the vulnerability of the energy infrastructure, which is so pivotal for such a large volume of the supply coming out of that that kind of Middle East region. This all coming in the backdrop and kind of initiated by the breakdown between, uh, the US and Iran sanctions situation. As you're probably aware, OPEC+ technical and monitoring committees gather in Saudi Arabia this weekend for a meeting, and that will not include Iran. Obviously, if you're Iran, there's no way you're going to that meeting at this point. But Russian Energy Minister Novak said the group plans to discuss the output reduction agreement But at this point, the OPEC Secretary-General has said there's no decisions happening here. Again, let me repeat myself, this is a technical and monitoring committee gathering. This is one of those interim ones before the big meeting happens in June. And so not looking for much to happen, but definitely when all the oil ministers gather, you definitely need to be aware of, of commentary coming out. That's going to happen at the weekend. Final thing is I did mention the Aussie Uh, so we had the Australian unemployment rate overnight, and that edged up to 5.2% in April. The previous figure for the prior month of March was bumped up slightly to 5.1%. And as the first bullet point here suggests, now traders are pricing in more than 50% chance of June easing. I thought I'd show you this graphic just to make make this a bit more clear about how quickly the situation has changed for Australia. Now, if you remember, um, what a lot of the more hawkish-minded— if they can still be classified as that, like, more appropriate to call them neutral-minded policymakers on the RBA— think is that there's a diminishing amount of slack in the labor market given the relative low level of unemployment. And so as a net result then that should keep wages up and therefore inflation fairly steady to target. So despite the weaknesses elsewhere in the economy, it's probably best and most prudent to hold rates. However, what this is proving is that the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbing, underscoring the extensive slack in the labor market and undoubtedly boosting these chances now of a rate cut. So if we went back only, what, 6 months, that was the black line. That was what markets were pricing for the rate of interest in Australia. The green line is the current interest rate, of course, 1.5%. And if you look to March, that's the orange line. And now the purple line at the bottom is basically where markets are pricing in rate cuts. So again, this— to make sense of this graphic, this is a timeline between where we are, uh, and where we're seeing rates over time in future by months. So if you see, if we are looking at the, the kind of fixed income curve in Australia, if we go forward 6 months, they're expecting a 50 basis point, um, lower interest rate than where we are today. And of course, that would be down at 1%. So quite drastic. But you can see here an interest rate cut now is kind of getting close to being priced in, in towards the next 2 to 3 months. So it's not going to be immediate, but it definitely is probably likely to come sooner rather than later. Quick look at the calendar and then I'll hand you over to Sam and he can look at the charts. Now I've covered off major news headlines. So this morning it's pretty quiet actually. There's not a great deal going on. So exactly kind of like what happened yesterday with that big headline that came out, the issues at the moment very much are being derived from the US. Still very much Donald Trump is pivotal to this. On that note, if anyone's interested, and I am trying to do some further analysis myself at the moment, but I did actually— I was looking— I was trying to find some information about Trump's tweeting activity, and I found a chap who'd done a research report looking at about 24,000 of Trump's recent tweets. And I just wanted to get a feel for— can you predict randomness? You know, people would like to think Trump is very spontaneous in the way in which he communicates, but but actually there's a very, I would say, formulaic pattern to the way he behaves and the words he uses. And if you actually broke this down into basically an algorithm, putting words into data, then I'm pretty much sure you could hypothesize a pretty accurate time and pretty much what subjects and what words he's going to use. And so I just started having a bit of read into this last night, and a couple of interesting graphics that I did tweet, if you're interested in taking a look. No surprise, the two words that he uses the most is his own name and the word "great." So I don't think that comes as any surprise at all. But yeah, the sentiment analysis actually, looking at all his tweets, he actually speaks more positive than he does negative. He tweets a cent per hour, the number of tweets per year. You know, there's a whole host of different graphics as well. So yeah, if you want to have a look at that, just jump on my Twitter account @awmchung and you can get more information. But I have more on that. I'm going to do an analysis on May, which hopefully I can share with you guys later on today. But yeah, US session is the, is the focus today, as it was yesterday. So most price Price movement, I would suggest, is going to come later. You've also got to layer in that, uh, 1922 committee for any potential sterling disruptors later on. US data, building permits, housing starts, weekly jobless claims, Philly Fed. Then you have manufacturing sales for anyone trading the FX on the loonie. Speakers, a couple of ECB guys coming out momentarily. And another one, Di Guindos speaking, but talking more off kind of subject, if you like, at 1:30. ECB rhetoric at the moment is relatively dull, I would say, because we already kind of know where we, where we are at the moment. The only kind of things I see that could make ECB commentary more interesting is if Italy were to kind of flare up significantly again, or if the trade tariffs— we kind of know now Trump's delayed that by 6 months, that's kind of pushed that off the table. Brexit's not until October, so I'm not— definitely not expecting much from ECB speakers in the coming days or weeks, to be quite frank. More in the afternoon though, you do get Bank of Canada's Poloz and Wilkins speaking after the BoC's review of the Canadian financial system. That'll be at 4 PM. So again, FX traders, and you've got a couple of Fed speakers, Kashkari, Brainard, coming later. Bank of England's Haskell is also speaking later on this evening as well. And then for any fixed income traders, you've got a whole batch of supply coming out the French Trésor as well later this morning. All right, I'm gonna leave it at that. I'm gonna hand you over to Sam and he can share some of his views on some of the technicals. But otherwise, have a good day, guys. I'll see you in the chat room. Thanks very much.

Hi guys, good morning. I hope everyone, uh, had a good evening. Uh, my voice is better, you'll be, you'll be pleased to hear. Uh, getting there, there slowly. Uh, just having a look to start with, uh, with US equities and those, those trend channels are very much in play at the moment. It's going to clear it, clear everything up for now to put the pivots back on. Uh, the NASDAQ, it's start with, uh, yesterday, just breaking out to the top end of that trend channel. We'll just do the trend line, uh, for now, but going on from that high, really starting on the, on the 3rd, that break above, pretty key. And closing above there, more important. You can see when we did come back early hours of the morning, found really good level of support. So that's something I would still look to have on for, for the NASDAQ. If you're looking to, to get short this market, well, that trend line, you probably want to go and also therefore, uh, the, the highs that we had back on— what day is it— Thursday, Tuesday, and Wednesday as well. And that trend line to go— yeah, there you go, it's back. And, uh, and then it could start to get interesting again to the downside even further. You'd be looking at the potential trend line coming in around the, the S1, uh, as well. Spoke too soon. Yeah, I know. Yeah, it's like Theresa May needs some, some, uh, some cough tablets. Uh, also to the upside, uh, looking, uh, here at the potential gap fill, and not just in the, the NASDAQ but also the, the S&P and the Dow Jones, should we get a further push. And we've, you know, we've had a decent recovery from, uh, the, the high that we had back on the— or the lowest back on the 13th. Decent push higher now, you know, 7,500 on the NASDAQ. But if we were to keep pushing on get past yesterday's high, then suddenly keep an eye on the, uh, the potential gap fill. But the, the NASDAQ is the only one above that trend channel. So if we have a look here at the, uh, the S&P, just drawing that trend on, you can see actually we found pretty good resistance late last night, closed importantly below it. So a bit of divergence there, maybe keeping an eye on, on how the NASDAQ really does go. If that was to continue to break higher, then, you know, then you might start to get the opportunity on the break of this trend line for, uh, the S&P as well. 2790 to the downside, still really important. I know quite a lot of people are looking, or were looking, at that for a place to, to get long. You can see here on just that longer term chart that we still have marked up, uh, from earlier in the week. You're getting that trend line, getting those lows from there, you get the 200-day moving average, would really be a, a nice area to, to consider. However, not to be the case right now, and be keeping an eye on this trend line. And if that was to break to the upside, yesterday's high as well, well, that gap fill from the weekend is something that I would, uh, would look at. Uh, another market on the, the longer term chart that's at quite an interesting level is obviously the, the pound drifting lower, uh, for the last few days really, since we topped out around 132 on the 6th of May. It's been a down day ever since. You see that, all red candles. Important level tested yesterday, failure to close below. So finally a tiny bit of joy for the bulls, but how important is that going to be? Time will tell. It's not looking too good right now. The low of the, the 14th of February, Valentine's Day. You also had the good support previously on the 30th of October, also the 15th of August. A really key level from price action point. If we were to close below that, it would be the first time going back to the 7th of January. So definitely keep an eye on that. To the upside, 129, uh, would be another area I think people would be potentially looking at to get short again to attack this, this year. Oh, that's just the low since February. More intraday for the pound. You can see I just put those pips on to give it a bit of perspective over the last few days. It's been a good opportunity, any sort of push higher, to, to get involved, to go short. And if we can get back up to 129, where we've already found some resistance, uh, it could be a good sort of line in the sand either way. With the upside, I think if we were to potentially, uh, find resistance on that area again, it would be the furthest of this trend line. And then you, you've got a sort of a center instrument gauge as well, that if we do get above that, then things might start to push higher. But for now, it's not looking too, too rosy. But as for the euro, with those, those comments late, or in the afternoon session, uh, from Trump on the, on the auto tariffs, it helped push the, the euro higher. However, we're still sort of stuck within this range. A new one coming now, 1.1255 to the upside, yesterday's high, and then to the downside where S2 was, but more importantly, the low that we had on the 9th and the 7th, sort of stuck within this range. And really, longer, medium-term opportunities, I think you're gonna have to wait for a break higher, uh, or lower of that. If we are looking more intraday, you can see we've just started to find a level of support this morning. If I was bringing this trend line to see if we've got anything on here, potentially with the pivot, if that comes in And even if we were to break the highs, I'd just be a bit careful because of some resistance we've got from yesterday afternoon as well. So Euro, I mean, it's a tricky one. I think even if we do break that pivot, I'd be aware certainly on the futures around 1.1223. So for, for 9 ticks, or was it 8 ticks, is it really worth it? I think there could be better opportunities elsewhere, but obviously if comments do come out that does provide some as well. Aussie dollar, we had that spike lower that Ant mentioned about from the, from the news, the employment, uh, stuff. I would still favor, you know, looking at this market, where's the opportunity to get short? Uh, I think unless equities were really to push higher off US and China trade comments, I think you've got to roll with, with the, the sentiment of this market. Obviously we're, we're near that flash crash low from January you know, where's a good opportunity, where the seller's going to come back in again. The only reason other than the trade that I would potentially not want to get short is if we have something like this where you've got a nice respected trend and the push higher is aggressive, and then that can sort of lead to, you know, maybe you don't want to then take where we had a bit of resistance at 69.26. It's that you prefer the pivot, which obviously is quite far away at the moment, but if we do get a strong push above this trend you can imagine there's a few stops around there as well, a bit of a stop run. You don't want to get in too aggressive. So for now, I think, you know, the pivot's a good area to continue this overall trend that has been coming down for, well, the last few weeks, uh, for sure. The yen— so this is the yen against the dollar rather than the dollar-yen. With equities coming down recently, we've seen the yen push higher. I think, you know, with the potential that equities bottomed out a couple of days ago short term Well, it could be a good opportunity here to look for the yen. Where is, uh, this market going to start to come back down again? Uh, on my computer I had a trendline or potential trendline just marked up from yesterday's low to this morning's low. If that breaks and the volume starts to pick up, well, is that going to be a good opportunity to get short and we potentially see that top? From the upside, you can see prices just starting to get squeezed in. It's not the most amazing pennant in the world but certainly something that I would have marked up. And keeping an eye maybe on the DAX for the morning, but a break higher or lower could be the good opportunity here. And certainly if equities start to carry on and pushing higher, well, this market you've got to feel is going to come down as well. Having a look at gold just to sort of, uh, well, wrap things up before we look at oil. Um, $1,290 held. Not that we came back to test it, and nor did we get a complete test of, of the 8th, the higher, the 8, 12, uh, well, 12.92. But yeah, I, I think that's key. As long as we're above that, the, the buyers are still going to be in control of this market. Uh, is becoming slightly choppy around here. I think, you know, if we break maybe this trend line from yesterday's low to today's low, yeah, sure, then you might get a further test of the S1. And keep an eye on those levels below. But while we're above all that, I think, yeah, the buyers are in control of this market. We're actually just seeing it try push to the high of the day. And there you go, there is the, the high of the day for, uh, for, for gold. Just to finish on oil, it's, you know, if you look in— well, here, the perfect time frame, 60-minute— you can see just how range-bound it is over the last couple of weeks, uh, almost your sort of $3 range, if you like, from those lows to the high. I mean, good one to keep an eye on for equity markets. If this market pushes towards that high end of the range, and you'd fancy equities to, to, to push on and maybe fill those gaps. But quite choppy at the moment. I think, uh, if you're looking medium-term opportunities for oil as well, a case of probably waiting for those ranges to, to really break. More intraday. Again, it's one of those markets where we pushed high but we've got a good trend line, so a break of that, things can start to turn around. And I know people will be looking just below the pivot as a good area, and also like the look of 6150, uh, as well. Just out the corner of my eye, to go back to the cable, just pushing lows on that low from yesterday right now, um, and that level's massive going back, uh, historically. So keep an eye on that for sure. And speaking of the, uh, the pound, have a look here at the, the euro pound, which has tested a few times up at these levels before really having a little bit of a breakthrough. And that high that we had back here on the futures on the 21st of March, I'll be keeping an eye on that. Uh, if we go through there, then you might really get a stronger push. But to say that, we have seen how technical this has been on that longer term chart. So this is the daily chart here, going back to those lows, 4 tests of that. And this really is coming up to another level to, to keep an eye on for the Euro Pound. Just finish last chart, uh, T-notes. Don't usually, uh, cover this in the technical stuff in the morning. Really, the volume is, is quite low. I think opportunity-wise here, if equities were to to really push on. And again, it's like looking for that opportunity to, to sell the yen. I think for T-notes, this trend line that goes or starts from the high that we had back on the 27th matches up with the high of the 13th. We found good support on the break of that, uh, yesterday. I'll just zoom in to reiterate that. If we were— and this is more maybe a potential down the line kind of trade— if we were to break that, the low that we found yesterday afternoon could be a good opportunity for to see a change of trend, which going back to, well, the 17th of last month has been pushing higher as well. Any questions, as usual, please, uh, do let us know. Obviously it'll be up on YouTube shortly, um, and we'll post the link in the chat. But yeah, any questions, let us know. Hope you'll have a great trading day, and I'll catch you in the chat later on.