In this post‑market macro briefing, the presenter reviews the Federal Reserve’s latest FOMC announcement and the market’s immediate response. He notes that U.S. equities (S&P 500, Nasdaq) rebounded strongly after an initial dip, while the dollar weakened and other asset classes (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, oil, gold, Treasuries) showed modest moves. The Fed’s policy actions are explained: a doubling of the monthly asset‑purchase taper from $15 bn to $30 bn, and a dot‑plot projection of three additional 0.25 % rate hikes in 2022, with a slight upward shift in the median trajectory. Inflation expectations were revised upward (core PCE to 4.4% for 2022) but the Fed still anticipates a decline by year‑end. The statement also flags Omicron‑related downside risks and includes highlights from Chairman Powell’s Q&A, emphasizing expected easing of supply‑chain bottlenecks, flexibility to adjust policy if growth weakens, and a generally dovish market reaction. The presenter concludes that the Fed’s measured stance has reassured markets, driving equities back toward all‑time highs.
Chapters
Hi all, we've just gone through the close on Wall Street and I thought I'd quickly jump on, just do a quick review of what the FOMC have announced earlier today, about 2 hours ago. First off, just looking at the market reaction, stocks were loving it post-FOMC announcement. A little bit of gyration in price on the initial release, but as you can see here, the S&P 500 has reversed all, as has the NASDAQ and other US indices, the selling pressure that was initiated at the beginning of the week. On the back of the emerging Omicron kind of concerns more globally. And you can see here the S&P futures still continue to tick higher as I speak. On the daily chart, obviously this starts to become quite a key upside resistance level of note and puts us back within striking distance now of the all-time record high again. So really impressive rally on the back of what the Fed have done, and I'll go into details and what exactly that was in a second. Also coinciding with this and a somewhat dovish then response in terms of the asset class mix, so across asset classes, dollar weakness. And so EURUSD and Cable have both moved higher on the back of dollar-led weakness here. Cable perhaps a little bit more pronounced just given the hot inflation figures we had this morning as well in the UK for November, came in quite a bit higher than expected at 5.1%. And so here just running into a bit of an obstacle still Sterling, this is cable futures around 132.75, that top that really we thrashed out since going back to the end of last week, Monday, yesterday, and through the FOMC-inspired volatility here. So dollar weakness, stocks positive, T-notes not too much reaction, oil ticking up, uh, just recovering some of its recent losses back up to its R1 with some of the dollar weakness and overall positive takeaway from what Powell has mentioned. Gold, the same type of price action recovering some of that dip that was seen in selling at the COMEX open from yesterday. So why has the market responded so positively here? What exactly has happened? Well, give you a quick overview from the top level. The Fed have done exactly what we thought. They accelerated tapering. As you can see here, they've doubled tapering. They've gone from $15 billion to $30 billion per month, but that was very well telegraphed by the Fed, so came as very little surprise. At all. The projections that came out alongside this, as you can see here, the projections showed officials expect 3 quarter-point increases in the benchmark federal funds rate would be appropriate next year according to the dot plots, of course, that everyone looks at. And here you can see the median dot plot. We've had a slight bump up in the composition of these, indicative then of a third hike now anticipated for next year. And you can see quite clearly the line, the green line of the median trajectory of what the Fed are expecting over the near-term kind of horizon. Uh, the Fed did flag concerns about Omicron. What they said more specifically was that risks to the economic outlook remain, including from new variants of the virus. And perhaps if we actually look at the table here, this is really drilling down into the table of data for their summary of economic projections. And you can see here growth, unemployment, PCE, core PCE, and then the median dot plot, which we just looked at graphically here. Then inflation is obviously the really important one, with inflation tracking at what, near a 40-year high in America at the moment. And key here is what they see for the end of this year and what they see for the end of 2022, because actually the core PCE inflation figure here they see popping up to 4.4%. So a distinct uplift here from 3.7% they last predicted back in September. But check this out, look at the decline. It goes from end of '21 to end of 2022. Effectively then, the Fed kind of paying note that yes, inflation is higher, it's prudent to act now. However, they still see that ultimately, really, that inflation's going to head back down lower. In the foreseeable future. With that, with some downside risks due to the new emerging Omicron strain, I think is enough to really suggest here that the Fed have done what they need to do to effectively combat surging inflation but without choking off economic growth. And they do indeed see that inflationary aspect fading over time. So yeah, accelerating taper, rising inflation expectations in terms of their forecast. They see continuing progress in the labor market, all as expected. If anything, the actual announcement here is actually less hawkish than perhaps some were positioning for, and consequently why you've got this kind of almost relief dovish response in, in markets, um, given the fact that the Fed has only added one hike in its trajectory over the forecast horizon while still seeing decent clip of growth, full employment next year, and inflation returning to target in a not too far distant future is why the market's really done what it's done. One of the interesting comments that came out of the Q&A from Powell was that he said bottlenecks will alleviate over the course of next year, inflation will come down significantly towards the back end of 2022, and if the economy turns out to not be as strong, we will adapt policy accordingly. The latter, I think, as you would expect, to keep that optionality open, certainly if this Omicron starts to develop in a more sinister way to impact economic activity in the States going forward and take the economy off, off track from what's expected. So all in all, a very positive reaction, one would say. Another well-managed decision here from Jerome Powell. He made that hawkish pivot very aggressively, in fact, about 2 or 3 weeks ago. It's kind of paid off in dividend here in the fact that he's managed to execute a hike. He's managed to telegraph that there's going to be multiple more of those to come. But the markets effectively seem to be reassured by that. And yeah, equities back in distance of all-time highs again. So with that, I'll end it there. I'll have my normal daily macro briefing going out um, in the morning for the European Open. So don't forget to like and subscribe to the channel if you don't already. And yeah, have a good evening and I'll see you tomorrow. Thanks very much.
