Tesla has 💎🙌

Okay, very good morning to you. It's Thursday, 20th of May, and yesterday actually ventured into the city for the first time in quite a while to go to the office, had a few meetings and so on. And in inevitable fashion, whenever I seem to kind of leave the desk, something interesting happens in markets, and certainly that was crypto yesterday. And as you can see here, Elon Musk with his diamond hands holding through the crypto noise yesterday. And yeah, just really interesting, uh, moves yesterday. And certainly I'll give a brief take of what my view on this is, because obviously when you see a move in markets, when you see some of these cryptocurrencies, you know, the Bitcoin price shedding half a trillion dollars and dumping 30%, recovering 30%, Ether dropping even more so, other cryptos getting hit. You had Coinbase, Binance all encountering issues, which they have done before in excess periods of volatility. Yeah, I'm sure there's a lot of new market entrants who highly leveraged who got hurt yesterday. But, you know, beyond a lot of that noise, I do think that ultimately for broader markets it doesn't mean a great deal, I don't think, at least for right now. And in fact, for cryptocurrency, you know, this isn't the bubble popping. I don't think now this is the beginning of the end, you know, for, for the recent gains that we've had. We'll have a look at the charts now on Bitcoin and such, but, you know, overall I think this is, this is the normality of what these particular products trade like. And, you know, if we go back, I was sharing on my, my Twitter account throughout the week, kind of previous instances when we have seen these types of moves. And as I was discussing the briefing yesterday, you know, we either, we either settle here around 30% type sell-off or we dump even further and aggressively so. So overall, doesn't surprise me that, you know, Elon's tweeting out his, uh, his diamond hands. And I, I think it'd take a lot for that not to be the case. And let's just have a look at Bitcoin this morning because did see a little bit of renewed overnight selling in the Asia-Pac session. I've got this chart marked up which I've just got running at the moment, which is a couple of the Musk tweets and the subsequent market impact that we've had, and particularly the U-turn on the Bitcoin payments. Then we've had Michael Burry obviously disclosing his short with Tesla and so on. So I've just mapped this over as well, just timing-wise, so we can see it. But technical perspective here on the rebound, I mean, this was some of the volatility that we had yesterday when it really started to pick up as we went into North American hours and we dumped and pretty much got to $30,000. So on the daily chart, again, just ignoring some of these markups for a moment, this is what we were kind of looking at yesterday, was around that area of, you know, if we were to break down through $40K, it could get aggressive very quick. And certainly that did materialize and kind of bounced around that low that we were looking at, about $30,000 psychologically, and also the low on the daily on the 29th. And you got the 200 DMA that quite a few people are looking at, but obviously a huge reversal on the back of that initial dump in price that we had. We're kind of settling around the $40K here in the Bitcoin future on the, on the daily continuation chart. But yeah, more near term on the 30-minute, um, I was just looking at It's because some of the sideways consolidation that we were in, in the, um, earlier in the week, in the first half of the week, kind of respecting a band of price between 42,000 and 45,700 or so. We had obviously a bit of a breakdown as we went through yes, yesterday's Asia-Pac session, and then the volatility ensued and obviously got down close to that 30,000. But on some of the rebounds here, just keeping an eye on how the markets reacting here at around, uh, particularly this market here, because that is basically the $40K in the, in the futures price at least. Um, and that coinciding with the respected trend line short term over the last 24 hours price action or so did have a bit of weight come in as Asia. Um, and I think that's to be under, uh, to be appreciated in respect to Asia participants just reacting to what happened given the time zone differential But then, you know, the dust kind of settling, we've rebounded back up. So, um, do I think we'll see a repeat today of what we had yesterday to the same magnitude? If I was going to be pushed, I'd say no. Um, but I guess you can't rule any of this out. And, you know, certainly, um, downside levels to watch now are going to be any assault and further— and, and what's obviously technically relevant would be a close below the 200 DMA. Again, as I said yesterday, as far away as that may seem, about $10,000 off the current price, obviously we saw yesterday that markets quickly get down with these types of crypto products down to those levels. Um, you know, all I'd say is to any new— I know that obviously there's a large portion of demographic that's been drawn into trading these types of products because of just the the attraction of the speed of returns that can be accumulated, and likes of Dogecoin and others. But, you know, this is the reality of the products that you are trading. So, you know, just as a word of advice, particularly because I know we have, you know, a fairly significant student following, and I know students are hugely active in that space, and I hope yesterday kind of just was a reminder of what you're dealing with. So in terms of leverage and things like that, you know, just be sensible with, with what you're doing. But look, I'm not going to sit here and sound like your dad, so I'll leave it at that. Otherwise, one of the other major things from yesterday, because otherwise it's been pretty quiet, was the FOMC minutes. And I was talking about this yesterday, wasn't really expecting a great deal, but actually we did see a decent reaction. If you actually look at the dollar index, it popped up, yields popped up. So consequently here you can see Um, the US 10-year actually spiked down a little bit upon the release of the minutes. So the minutes kind of dropped around here. We have reversed, you know, more than half of that move, uh, and the dollar is just, just breaking out of a bit of a trend, um, of tight consolidation from the overnight Asia-Pac session, reversing a portion of that move. But let me just explain to you what happened and why the dollar saw a bit of a pickup with yields first. And basically it was down to this point, which was that the Federal Reserve officials talked about tapering asset purchases. The April minutes reflected dovish commitment but pressure to discuss changes soon. And this is obviously the big talking point, is just given the way the economy is heading, inflation expectations, it's not a matter of if but when does the Fed start to have the discussion about tapering as the prelude then to the actual tapering product in itself, if you like, or the actual moment of policy tightening in itself. And so going further forward from here then, one of the things you've got to be mindful of is the dated nature of these minutes. And that then, I think, explains the second part, which is that of— I really think that to me, given the fact that the really bad jobs report that we had at beginning of the month. These conversations that were documented in these minutes predated those, those jobs reports. And we've seen some other data points as well that have kind of rolled over a little bit in the US. So I personally don't put too much weight into this particular reaction that we've had. And to see a little bit of a dollar reversal of that move— and also we've already really seen that to a large portion, as I said, in the US 10-year, in the yield move I don't think it's anything to be spooked by, quite personally. Um, so I think again, the market at the time, I think, was a little bit just knee-jerk reaction, spooked by the fact that really expectations last night was for very little. Something materialized, which is this kind of conversation that, um, some signaling that they'd be open at some point to discussion of scaling back their bond purchases, and that was enough to create that reaction. But I think now you've had a chance to sleep on it, the dust settles. I don't actually think it's a big deal personally. Um, and yeah, so that's about it really from a news perspective. I mean, overnight in Asia, um, there's nothing of great magnitude to comment on. Obviously there's lots of smaller news stories, but, um, there's some Aussie jobs data, but not really a market mover too much for the Aussie. Basically in line, 5.5% against 5.6%. Uh, in terms of some of the charts to have a look at, the commodity one's, uh, probably the most appealing, I'd say, from a technical perspective. Obviously crude oil here has had a pretty decent pullback after threatening to break out at those multi-year highs we've talked about a couple times this week. And we did continue that push down yesterday before seeing a bit of a bounce back here to around the 63.75 at the moment. Obviously On the daily chart though, this is what I was looking at. So we'll see if I just tighten this a little bit. So that's that level we were looking at on the multiple tests that we've had from 2019 and what restricted the price action so far this year, year to date, whether or not we could break above that. But actually it's the trend line here on the, on the bounce that's held so far. And this dates back to pretty much the year to date price action. So we broke out up higher through the commencement of the year, basically the first week of trade, had a bit of a period of consolidation, and then we've just— we've kind of respected them, uh, starting from here in, uh, early Feb, March, and then this is that recent route that we've had this week and where we've stabilized now. So that's a, that's a trend line that I'd definitely be keeping on and keeping an eye on at the moment, again, despite the pullback. I still feel more favorable that as this price starts to get squeezed in, all things remaining equal, the, the upside breakout is more, more higher potential, uh, at the moment for, for reasons we've discussed many times before. But obviously we'll continue to track the situation. Things can change. There's obviously lots of dialogue going on with Iran at the moment. There's a COVID situation to keep an eye on, on the Indian variant, um, you know, not just in the UK but on a global perspective. So a few things to consider. Otherwise, in the gold market, we had some quite, quite extreme volatility yesterday. And they're just having a look at what was happening during that sell-off. I mean, there's a lot of conversation yesterday about how much that crypto move would create a kind of subsequent reaction to other asset classes, people liquidation— liquidating their position holdings in order to cover their margins on crypto. I think, look, just calm down a little bit here. You know, I don't think there's these major players in the market who are that deep in the crypto space that are going to have to start like pulling the plug on more traditional asset trades to cover those. I think, I think that's getting a little bit too excited about what was happening yesterday, in my humble opinion. And, you know, this idea about inflation expectations, which has kind of rattled the stock market I mean, to me, that absolutely kills that argument then that crypto provides you with some type of inflation hedge, you know, obviously proving nonexistent. That's what we've seen. And that there's other much more driving forces like probably Elon Musk and Chinese regulators that are prompting some of these more recent moves, amongst many other variables, of course, that are ongoing at the moment. But yeah, just having a look at gold here. Saw a bit of a break higher, um, during yesterday early afternoon, and then it's kind of reversed course. So pretty choppy price action. You can see gold actually dumped, uh, to a certain degree, about $15, $20 or so when the Fed came out. So fits that narrative of initial kind of hawkish surprise, but has reversed. So to give me, I guess, greater authority in that belief that not only do I think that the Fed minutes are dated because they're missing a lot of the more up-to-speed economic data, which hasn't held up to what would have validated their discussions back in late April. But asset classes agree with that view because a lot of that move's already been reversed at this, at this point in time. Technically speaking, obviously that run higher failed to really close it on the daily above this key level of 1875. So still watching that really. It's obviously Thursday, 2 more trading days of the week. Where do we finish? Can we, can we actually close a candle above here? Uh, will be a bit of a test at the moment. That's looking a bit of a struggle at the moment. So perhaps we've seen the best of the kind of the push-up here in gold for the time being. But, uh, again, I'd be watching things like the dollar as well for some, some cues and whether that could continue, uh, and whether we see resumption of just general, um, dollar weakness, um, at this point in time. Okay, um, calendar-wise, what have we got? Um, UK data. Excuse me, this is the calendar from yesterday, so we switch over. Here we go. So just going into today's session, very quiet in terms of UK, European morning. It's really nothing going on or to speak of. And so then into the US afternoon, you've got initial jobless claims expected at 4:50. Further improvements, if anything, from the job situation from where we were last week at 473. So a positive trend still developing there on that front. But the Philly Fed Business Index is expected to decline to around 43.50 spot to very wide range, just accommodating for some of the wide-scale volatility we see in some of these data readings as we go through the reopening process. And then that's pretty much it on that side of things. Otherwise, speakers ECB's Lane and ECB's Christine Lagarde speak at 9 and 1 PM respectively, London time. However, no text is expected according to the ECB media office from either speaker. Bank of England's Cunliffe at 10, but I'm not expecting a great deal from him either, to be quite frank. And then the only Fed member speaking today is Kaplan, who's a non-voting member, but that's not until the overnight post-US close. Supply coming out, fairly chunky amount from Spain and France this morning. Uh, you then also have a US 2.5, 7-year, and a 2-year floating rate note announcement coming out this afternoon at 4 PM, and a TIPS auction for $30 billion later on this evening. But yeah, going to keep it short and sharp. That's, that's pretty much it. So overall theme on the, on the morning so far, um, I haven't really talked too much about the technicals or the equities Nothing really sticks out as too favorable at the moment. Don't really have any directional bias either at this point in time. But overall, I guess my main points are not to over-interpret the crypto move yesterday for traditional assets and not to over-interprete— over-interpret the FOMC minutes, which in my view are quite dated of nature. And I think the already subsequent movement and reaction after knee-jerk reaction being reversed in most of the relevant assets like dollar yields and gold kind of play testament to that, that kind of view. Otherwise, yeah, if you haven't checked it out already, remember to check out AmplifyLive.com. There's absolutely free access to this portal now. We've kind of opened it up. There's obviously premium paid elements that you can access as well, but we'd love to get— if you're watching this on YouTube— you into our private chat room uh, which I said is free to access. There's a couple of cool things you can have a look at as well. So otherwise, wish you a good day ahead and we'll catch you tomorrow. Thanks, guys.