The $3.6 Trillion IPO Boom: SpaceX, OpenAI, TikTok & the Biggest Listings of 2026

11 Jan 2026 · 37 min
36:57

In this Market Maker podcast episode, host Anthony Cheung and guest Steven Barnett dissect the $3.6 trillion IPO pipeline slated for 2026, focusing on eight headline candidates: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Stripe, Revolut, Canva, ByteDance/TikTok, and Databricks. They walk through each company’s projected revenues, valuation expectations, underwriting banks, fee structures, and key risk factors. SpaceX is portrayed as a bullish, trillion‑plus IPO with massive upside and strong moats, while OpenAI is deemed bearish due to huge losses and an unproven advertising model. Anthropic receives a cautiously bullish view for its enterprise‑focused, lower‑risk LLM approach. ByteDance’s TikTok US spin‑off is flagged as a geopolitical and valuation quagmire. Databricks is described as a data‑lakehouse platform with a high‑multiple IPO but the analyst admits limited conviction. Stripe’s direct listing is highlighted for its massive payment processing volume and an urgent equity‑cliff driver. Revolut is seen as a potential super‑app with mixed prospects, and Canva is considered a solid, profit‑generating design SaaS with modest AI‑driven growth. Throughout, the conversation touches on bank lead‑arrangers (Morgan Stanley, Goldman, JP Morgan), fee expectations (up to $900 million for SpaceX), and broader market dynamics such as competition, regulatory risk, and macro‑economic uncertainty. The episode ends with a disclaimer that the discussion is not investment advice.

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