The $3.6 Trillion IPO Boom: SpaceX, OpenAI, TikTok & the Biggest Listings of 2026

In this Market Maker podcast episode, host Anthony Cheung and guest Steven Barnett dissect the $3.6 trillion IPO pipeline slated for 2026, focusing on eight headline candidates: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Stripe, Revolut, Canva, ByteDance/TikTok, and Databricks. They walk through each company’s projected revenues, valuation expectations, underwriting banks, fee structures, and key risk factors. SpaceX is portrayed as a bullish, trillion‑plus IPO with massive upside and strong moats, while OpenAI is deemed bearish due to huge losses and an unproven advertising model. Anthropic receives a cautiously bullish view for its enterprise‑focused, lower‑risk LLM approach. ByteDance’s TikTok US spin‑off is flagged as a geopolitical and valuation quagmire. Databricks is described as a data‑lakehouse platform with a high‑multiple IPO but the analyst admits limited conviction. Stripe’s direct listing is highlighted for its massive payment processing volume and an urgent equity‑cliff driver. Revolut is seen as a potential super‑app with mixed prospects, and Canva is considered a solid, profit‑generating design SaaS with modest AI‑driven growth. Throughout, the conversation touches on bank lead‑arrangers (Morgan Stanley, Goldman, JP Morgan), fee expectations (up to $900 million for SpaceX), and broader market dynamics such as competition, regulatory risk, and macro‑economic uncertainty. The episode ends with a disclaimer that the discussion is not investment advice.
Chapters
Hello and welcome back to the Market Maker podcast. A happy new year in terms of our regular programming. This is the first episode of 2026. I hope you had a wonderful break. But we did put out a post on our social media channels of a table, and on that table had 8 companies, and those 8 companies were related to which are the hottest IPOs in 2026. And on that list, were the likes of SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Stripe, Revolut, Canva. These are massive names. In fact, the total value of the 2026 IPO pipeline is estimated at a staggering $3.6 trillion. That's total market cap of those potentially listed companies. So we are gonna dive into this. SpaceX's trillion-dollar debut, the AI arms race between OpenAI and Anthropic. We'll look at the banks pulling the strings behind the scenes, red flags you can't ignore, and which ones are we more bullish on and more bearish on. And who better to kick us off on this topic and for 2026, but Steven Barnett, how are you?
Yeah, I'm very good. Thank you, and I can't believe you've lured me back in. That was a late, late call-up. I felt like I was on the bench stretching, ready to go.
I was like, I had the ball and I was looking, it's like an American football analogy. And I was like, I could see the plays happening. The post was blowing up on this table and I was like, I saw Steven Barnett running, gave him the pass.
Yeah, Steven Barnett running, tripping over his own feet, dropping the ball and making a fool of himself. But hopefully that worked out.
We all know that he sat in the, in the tower as the coach calling the shots. He's the strategy guy.
Yeah, absolutely. A strategy guy with a good 6 inches of snow outside, which is very nice. So if I get distracted by the snow day, yeah, schools are shut. It's fantastic.
Nice. All right. Well, look, I mean, we've got some huge companies here. Tell us a little bit about SpaceX to kick us off.
Yeah. So SpaceX has been one of the most hotly anticipated IPOs probably for the last 5 years. And it is such a singular company. And I can imagine most people who listen to this podcast know a little bit about SpaceX, but what makes it extraordinarily attractive is that again, love him or likely loathe him, Elon Musk does have this ability to create whole new categories, virgin ground, like break virgin ground on massive, massive market opportunities. And he's done so with SpaceX through sheer bloody-mindedness to create a company that in 2024 accounted for 87% of all orbital launches in the US. That is bonkers. He has created a monopoly pretty much on space travel or on going into space for commercial purposes. And what's super exciting about this is, you know, you've got the bread and butter of SpaceX, which is Starlink, which is that kind of global internet service satellite provided, which generates about $15 billion in revenue. Again, pretty much a monopoly when it comes to that kind of thing. But then you've got this killer combination of massive, massive potential upside markets. Again, there is a lot of space in space, right? That is not yet claimed. There's lots of territory that is not yet claimed. Whether it is, and I was just reading about, I'm not going to go into too much detail, whether it is orbital data centers, basically floating data centers up in space, whether it is defense, which obviously is probably the word of the day. As we look at the news headlines at the moment, um, that, you know, there are so many different trillion-dollar markets up there in space that no one has claimed. That's super interesting. And when you combine that with the moats, the strategic moats, the operational moats that SpaceX has, you know, they are vertically integrated, they do things better, cheaper. They've had 20 years of fate of experimentation, putting their bodies, putting their money on the line, let's say, you know, in order to create knowledge and institutional memory that is going to be very, very hard to compete with. So when you see a company that's doing, you know, that's growing quickly and doing so well, your first thing is, all right, what's their defensibility? How quickly can a new entrant come in and take up market share? In the case of SpaceX, it's going to be really, really difficult. So you've got this combination of massive upside and extreme defensibility that makes this such an exciting prospect. And I think it shows in terms of the slated IPO valuation.
In terms of that valuation then, what type of size and range are we looking at? And I guess a lot of people who are listening are going to be thinking, okay, so where is that in terms of the realization of what the business looks like? Right now as to the perceived value and then the value creation over time in terms of opportunity?
Yeah. So the expectations are that it will earn between $22 and $24 billion in revenue in 2026. So it's a proper chunky company as is. Raised money at an $800 billion valuation at the last financing round. But the expectation is that, you know, we'll use the T word on this. This will be a over trillion-dollar valuation on IPO, possibly a $1.5 trillion valuation raising as much as $30 billion. Now that would suggest a 60 to 70 times revenue multiple, which is very, very high. You know, $1.5 trillion divided by $23 billion, whatever the number is, that is high. But I don't think it's, I mean, it's extraordinarily high and I'd probably be laughing at myself to say that it's not beyond the realms of possibility if I was doing this podcast a few years ago. But you look at the likes of Palantir. Palantir are an extremely undefensible company that have benefited from a lot of hype and a lot of good narrative and things like that. And their price-to-sales multiple is up at a 120 times even now despite the sell-off. So 65 times, yeah, it's higher than Nvidia, it's higher than the big tech companies that we talk a lot about. But I think that this is a singular company and I think that a lot of other people do as well. And that's why it commands this valuation.
In terms of a fee then for doing this, so two things. I'm imagining Morgan Stanley could well be front of the queue because of a relationship they have existing with Elon. Given the funding that they did when he was doing the whole Twitter X saga and so forth. Would that be right? And then also secondly, I mean, there's going to be a lot of people I imagine on this deal. Are we talking like a billion-dollar fee potential on this type of thing to go around?
Yeah. So you mentioned Morgan Stanley. So it's a guy called Adam Jonas. He's the lead analyst who's very bullish on the space economy. So Again, a lot of the reason why you do equity research is to carve a niche in terms of your expertise within a bank that potentially leads you to revenue events further down the line or fee events further down the line. And that's kind of what's going on here. If you are the mega bull on an industry which is dominated by one company that's about to IPO, you should be front and center if you play your cards right. But you know, this is a, this, you know, expectation is that it might be a $30 billion raise at a $1.5 trillion valuation. So the fee is taken as a percentage of the amount of money raised in an IPO, not the total valuation, but that's still $30 billion. Fee ranges, you know, in a typical IPO, you can be anything from, you know, 2.5 to 7%. And the bigger the IPO, the smaller the percentage. So let's say it's a 3% fee. I reckon it might be a little bit lower than that. That 3% fee, $30 billion, that's a $900 million payday. You know, you're going to have more than one bank in this. You know, there's going to be basically all of the big beasts are going to get involved because you've got to find $30 billion of investor IPO capital to go into this. So you're gonna need an army of bankers to get around this, but $900 million goes a long way. It can make your year, let's just say that.
So from a league table perspective, basically if you're not on the SpaceX ticket and potentially OpenAI, which we'll go on to talk about, because the others are massive, but they're nowhere near as big in terms of the potential of those top two. So would that be right if you're not on that, if you're not getting a sizable chunk of that? $900 million, let's say, that goes around the table, then it's going to be hard to try to catch up in that respect. And I guess it's already going to— well, what will be interesting is Goldman's were number one, JP was number two, I think, in fees in 2025. But MS is probably going to come out with the bigger slice of the SpaceX one.
Yeah. You know, they, again, if SpaceX does what it says it's going to do or what we think it's going to do and Morgan Stanley leads it, then you would expect them to be up at the top. You know, albeit, look, you know, we're talking here about the potentially, and again, we say potentially a lot when it comes to IPOs and the IPO markets, the biggest year, you know, basically on record. So, you know, I don't think all is lost if you don't get right at the top of a SpaceX. You just need to mop up quite a lot of the other ones that we're going to speak about.
Final word on SpaceX then. What are some of the downside risks? This all sounds super positive at the moment, but there's got to be some.
I mean, look, again, I'm going to caveat every single one of my kind of bullish or bearish opinions based on valuation. A deal is good or it's not based on the valuation and really getting into the numbers. So, you know, is $1.5 trillion a little bit too steep? Then you've got all of the other, then you've got obviously the competitive space. Yeah, I would say that's kind of an amber flag. There are other entrants getting involved and existing incumbents that are getting their game together. You've got the obvious Elon Musk risk factor. Could be a positive, could be a negative, you know, depends what side of the coin we see when the IPO is launching. You obviously have the geopolitical turmoil and, you know, US national instability that is going to make, you know, it's going to make markets potentially jittery in 2026. You might have a little bit of a reflationary hit depending on what the flow-through of some of the tariffs. So there's all sorts of stuff. I was speaking to my wife earlier on and we're like, Trump's only been in for a year. So much has happened. Just imagine what are the next— and it only feels like it's accelerating in terms of some of the stuff he's doing. This is not a politics podcast, so we'll leave it at that. So I think that those are the main risks, and I think you could probably apply those risks to all of the other companies that we're speaking about.
Alright, number 2 then of the 8 is OpenAI. And I'm going to come, I'm going to ask straight off the bat, have they mistimed this?
Well, look, I mean, I forgot to say that, you know, if I'm going to do a bullish or bearish, you know, I'm bullish on SpaceX, you know, for the reasons that I've mentioned. And conversely, I'm hugely bearish on OpenAI. I think that there's a number of reasons why I'm bearish on OpenAI. I think one is the amount of noise that surrounds that company started off not necessarily being a bad thing. As you reach public awareness and you get to that, I think they've got 800 million daily users, et cetera. But the noise is just too much. You know, Sam Altman seems to be a relatively volatile character. The relationship with Microsoft is problematic. The deals that he has purported to sign, but there is no money for them to go through. The lockups with Oracle, all of this stuff feels, you know, feels messy. And if I'm an investor, I want to, I want to, a slightly cleaner bet. And there are other bets that we'll talk about later on. You know, not least Anthropic, but also you've got Google and to an extent you've got Amazon, which I know that you guys spoke about on the podcast a few weeks ago. So, you know, definitely mistimed. I think that the strategy, you know, I'm hugely bearish, but the strategy, this is basically a Hail Mary on advertising and, you know, OpenAI has put so, so much money and so much energy into capturing the attention space and capturing the daily active users. You know, they haven't gone after the enterprise market in the same way as maybe Anthropic has, and we'll speak about that in a second. So basically this thing, if this isn't a Google killer with advertising, I think this could be one of the greatest, you know, corporate, you know, investment, investment destructions of all time, right? And I was just looking at the numbers. It lost $12 billion in Q3 of 2025, and it is expected to lose $74 billion in 2028. That's their numbers, right? So if I'm IPOing in 2026 with an unknown business model, you know, you have— I haven't— I don't know whether advertising is going to work. You know, if advertising comes on ChatGPT, I might well just go to to Claude or to Gemini or to something else. So I just feel there's so much noise and so much uncertainty and they're losing so much money. This is one to stay away and not touch with a 10-foot barge pole from my perspective.
I guess one man's loss is another man's gain. All of that intelligence, all of that available capital that might have gone their way, if that starts to recirculate in the system again, I can't see how that doesn't fall away, particularly on that retail side of the market. If you're not targeting enterprise, Gemini 3 has just killed it.
Gemini 3.
I've canceled my subscription to GPT that I was paying for. I paid, started paying pretty much straight away and not anymore.
Yeah, look, I think the big beasts have come in and they have got the advantage of, you know, 2 billion, 2 billion people doing daily searches on Google and the treasure trove of YouTube to feed their large language models and make them richer and better. And, you know, Google doesn't need to make a load of money out of Gemini. It just needs to stop OpenAI making money out of Gemini in order to secure its moat. So they're in a totally, totally dominant position. So where do you park your money? You don't park it in OpenAI.
So Anthropic then, you mentioned briefly they were angling for the enterprise pathway, if you like, to revenue. So is that the main takeaway? What are the other components of Anthropic and how different are they and how do you feel about them from a bullish bearish perspective?
Yeah. So Anthropic, I think it's a very, very different model. And again, if you spent a bit of time on Claude versus the others, it feels less B2C-like and it feels a little bit drier. It feels like some of the knowledge is a little bit older. It feels a little bit safer. And that is with good reason. And Anthropic has made a massive push as the AI LLM of choice for corporate executives and corporate procurement managers whose job is basically to avoid downside risk, right? You know, their job is not necessarily, gosh, we need the, you know, the snazziest thing, the best looking kind of thing in the shed. We want something that is going to work. It's not going to leak our data. It's going to be trustworthy. It's going to say when it doesn't know the answer. And they've approached the market in a much more circumspect way. You do not hear, you know, the oscillations of Anthropic in the same way as you hear about Sam Altman hitting the headlines with, you know, trillion-dollar investments in data centers in dot, dot, dot. So they've flown underneath the radar and their expectation is that they'll be profitable by 2028. So this is a company, you know, if historically, if you're IPOing, there needs to be a, if you're not already profitable, there needs to be a relatively short-term, near-term strategy to get profitable. So by 2028, Anthropic is expected to be profitable. And just remember, OpenAI is set to lose $74 billion, right? So, you know, there's risk and then there's risk. I like the company. I think that it's pretty well run. I think that the valuation multiple will be high. I think the last valuation was $183 billion, but it might not be as high as OpenAI because they've anchored to private valuations a lot higher than $183 billion. So again, when you're going through an IPO process, the last thing you want is an absolutely blockbuster private valuation because those investors will not want you to IPO until there's some certainty that the IPO valuation's going to be higher than the private market valuation. So $183 billion last valuation round, that's chunky, but I reckon Anthropic is probably quite well placed to do pretty well in the public markets. So I am cautiously bullish.
And I was having a look at the book runners here and I was reading quite a bit about JP Morgan's tie to the tech industry and kind of their internal venture arms having pretty strong ties to JP Morgan from the likes of the Amazons, the Googles, and so forth. So one of the other things though that I saw was about the idea that they might look at a tech-focused boutique to signal that they're not just another corporate kind of giant. But my question there is like, who are they trying to fool here? Like their backers are Google and Amazon, so, or one of many. But so how does that pan out in terms of the idea of the optics around using a boutique? Is that a thing?
Yeah. And so I think the boutique in question is Catalyst with a Q Partners, which is one of the boutique tech banks that floats around the West Coast and gets involved in some of this stuff. I think it makes sense from an optics perspective because what you want is you want the big beast, JP Morgan, coming in and saying, this is why it works from a financial perspective. This is why we're so excited. We've done all of the work with our spreadsheets and catalyst coming in and going, this is the real deal. Our slides are going to be legit. We're not solely bankers trying to talk tech, you know, we are pure play tech bankers. And there's a slightly different narrative there. And I think it all speaks to the slightly more kind of, you know, Anthropic has tried to win over the enterprise community, but has also tried to win over the tech community as well to say, you know, we're doing things in a certain way, you know, that are possibly less move fast and break things, and therefore possibly more enduring, which again is something that, you know, with all the frothiness, you know, is this a defensible tech stack? Is this a defensible model? Is it going to get better? Is it going to, you know, is it going to win in the niches that it is purported to try and win in? So I like it. I think it's a good strategy.
Cool. All right, well, let's move on and talk ByteDance and TikTok. I know you're a big user, so.
Yeah. Yeah. TikTok is one thing that's never made it to my phone. And I don't regret that decision one bit. It probably saved myself many hours, but this is bonkers. And I have to kind of caution because I've only picked up on this story properly in the last few days. This looks like, and I, and I, you might have a, a better opinion on this than me. This looks like the biggest kind of crony bonanza of all time, right? How to, how to become, how to turn like a billion into 10 billion within a year. Become friends with Donald Trump.
It's how the world works, Steven. Come on.
Put a $14 billion valuation on a company whose revenue is $22 billion in the US. And then IPO the next year at a valuation of $150 billion or whatever the number's going to be. This is absolutely crazy. So, so obviously the story is TikTok owned by ByteDance, you know, ByteDance, Chinese company, big hoo-ha about the fact that TikTok can, TikTok US can operate with a Chinese owner. Donald Trump signed an executive order that said, hey, look, a consortium of high-quality investors will come in and buy the US arm and retrain the algorithm using US technology, using Oracle, et cetera. And we've done all the hard work and we think that this company's worth, the US arm of TikTok is worth $14 billion, which is like, you go on the back of a Fag packet and you just write down a number. This $14 billion valuation, let's just put this in context. And these are the private Donald Trump-aligned investors that are getting in on this. So before any talk of an IPO, $14 billion, the company generates, the US arm of TikTok generates, has generated $20-22 billion of revenue in 2024. Now, as part of the agreement, 50% of the revenue goes to the Chinese parent. So let's say that that $14 billion valuation is for effectively $11 billion of revenue, 50% of the $22 billion. That gives TikTok US a price-to-sales multiple of 1.26, right? That is lower than Walmart. That's lower than Exxon. And if you were to slap a Meta price-to-sales multiple on the 11 billion of revenue, you end up with a valuation of the company of $126 billion instead of $14 billion, right? This is absolutely the great, great giveaway. And if it IPOs in 2026, there's a lot of risk associated. You know, if we talked about geopolitical stuff, but you know, this will, you know, this will IPO at a decent multiple. It should do. And therefore there's some people that are already very rich that are going to get richer.
Who gets the bigger fees here? Is it the banker or the lawyer on this one?
Well, the lawyers I'm sure have already cleaned up with the original kind of executive order. And associated split to the likes of Oracle and Silver Lake and things like that. Yeah, I mean, you know, who, again, who knows whether this thing is going to go through? Who knows whether there's still too much complexity? Technically, ByteDance still owns 20% of the US entity, even though the algorithms are being retrained. There's kind of algorithm risk there, you know, Will the secret source of TikTok be transferred to a US architecture? You know, so there's still a lot of risk.
None of that matters. He just got to get it in. He's got to get it in before the midterms. Everyone needs to get paid and then it doesn't matter what happens thereafter. All right. Well, let's move on and talk about probably the least familiar name on the list. Which is Databricks. I actually saw Databricks at a conference that we went to in Canada, which was like a PhD researcher conference, and it was all like the tech firms there, couple of quant hedge funds. And then I saw Databricks. Databricks was in there kind of tucked in the corner with all of these massive names, both the intersection of tech and finance. So who are Databricks?
Yeah, I would say that your guess is as good as mine. It's a lot of people complain about finance that, you know, there are layers of jargon that make it very hard to understand what things are and what people do within institutions and within banks. I think Databricks is one of those companies that if you're not technically inclined, if you're not a kind of backend data engineer, you're going to really, really struggle to understand why this thing is going to have such a bumper, you know, but such a bumper IPO. I mean, it is a data intelligence platform. And it has, and you'll be interested to know, the lakehouse advantage, which combines data lakes with data warehouses. So there you go. Can you explain that for me, please, Anthony? Because I'm a little bit confused. Do you know what?
That's a great question. A data lakehouse architecture merges the best of data lakes, which is cheap storage, flexibility for raw data. So it merges the best of data lakes, which is that, and data warehouses, which is structure management, into a single system. So it's just housing everything, I think, in all its components in the cloud, in a way.
Yeah.
Yeah.
It sounded like you weren't reading that off ChatGPT. No, no, off of Gemini. Sorry.
Yeah.
No, no.
Gemini has saved me again.
So, I mean, the interesting thing about this is, you know, it will, it will likely list in the first half of 2026. I think it is one of the most kind of nailed on of the list that is going to IPO. Again, Morgan Stanley widely rumored to be the left lead, the primary bank. So that's another potential feather in the cap for Morgan Stanley. You know, potential issues, it had a Series L. You don't really often get to L in the alphabet when it comes to private fundraising.
Never even heard of that before.
You start with a pre-seed, then you go into a seed, and then go A, B, C, D, usually you're IPOing by the time you get to maybe F, you know, maybe a little bit, sometimes a bit later, but L. So they've done 11, 12, 13 private funding rounds, but the valuation was $134 billion. So this thing needs to pop at higher than $134 billion, bearing in mind that their revenue run rate is about $5 billion. Again, it's still up at 25, 30 times price sales. It's growing 55% year over year. So that's a positive. And it's got some quite interesting AI adjacencies or integrations. But you know, I, in my notes I said neither bullish or bearish. I don't know enough and I wouldn't participate because I don't know enough. I don't have a view. I don't have conviction.
Okay. Well, one that you probably is the oldest maybe on this list. Stripe.
Yeah, Stripe I have much more conviction about. I think it, I've been waiting for this company to IPO for a very, very long time. It is an amazing company. You know, it's the kind of payments architecture and processor of the internet, right? It processes $1.4 trillion of payments, serves 62% of the Fortune 500. It owns 45% of the payment processing market. 1.3% of global GDP goes through Stripe. This is a good company. It's profitable. It's been around for a while. It's very, very well run, extremely well run, and very liked by its users and by the community of the internet and the modern economy. So I'm pretty bullish. There's a couple of things here that might be worth very, very quickly explaining. So in my notes, it says that Stripe is facing a massive equity cliff. So what is an equity cliff? So what happens is when early employees get given what's called restricted stock units, RSUs, in the US, they have a 10-year expiration date. Which basically means if there isn't an event within 10 years, the options expire, even if they vested. So they basically need to do something within this equity cliff. Otherwise, they're going to have to find another less tax-efficient way of compensating their early employees, including some of the C-suite. So they're going to have— there's some urgency now in 2026 to make this happen. There is the expectation or a potential that this is going to be a direct listing. And we spoke about direct listing previously, I think with regards to Spotify and with regards to Coinbase. And this is basically where you list, but you don't raise money. So you don't go through the IPO process, the underwriting process, the roadshow, all of the book building stuff. You just say, look, we're going to list and this is going to be an opportunity for, you know, that equity cliff to be realized and for early employees to sell their shares, but it's a much lighter touch process if you're not trying to raise money.
Yeah, that all makes sense. I was going to ask you about, well, what's taking them so long, but yeah, the equity cliff and then the more simplicity of a direct listing makes a lot of sense. So two more. It's kind of like somewhat similar, but more modern facing. Revolut, then nice to come after Stripe. So What are your thoughts on Revolut?
Yeah, so I'll take the last two together just in the interest of time. Revolut and Canva. So Revolut, again, most people this side of the pond will know Revolut and increasingly over the other side of the pond as well. So Revolut is one of these neobank challenger banks that has recently actually got its banking license, which is a very difficult thing to do. And there are two ways of looking at Revolut, bearing in mind it's got a $75 billion valuation, private valuation. So it's, you know, That's higher than Barclays, Deutsche Bank, SocGen, et cetera. So it's already kind of up there from a valuation perspective. The kind of bear case, or, you know, this stock is too expensive, is, you know, if you're just going to be another bank, you're just going to be valued on bank multiples, which aren't particularly sexy. You know, banks are decent businesses if you get it right, but they're not, you know, super exciting mega techie businesses that are going to command great valuations. Now on the flip side, you know, Revolut is pretty well positioned to become what they call, or what we call a super app. And a super app is something that's happened a lot more in China than it has here, you know, but there have been certain companies like Uber that's tried to kind of get into the, all right, if you want to do anything financial, use Revolut. If you want to do anything travel, use Uber. So these are the kind of— this, and this is where you can get real stickiness, real complementary goods if you talk about it from an economic perspective. And Revolut is really well positioned. You can trade crypto, get a mortgage, you know, get international currency, do all sorts of different things, get a car loan on this super app. And that— and you can use it for your personal or your business, etc. So that's when it becomes attractive. So my comments to Revolut, wait and see. There are two ways this could go. I'm not getting involved from day one, but I'm interested to see.
Okay. Last one then. Yeah. Canva, which I'm a big fan of Canva and always have been. I've been a paid user from day dot with Canva.
Well, maybe, maybe you tell me then, because, you know, I use Canva, but not very much. They've got a $42 billion valuation at a $3.3 billion ARR. So this is more in line with your typical software startup or software company valuations, kind of 12 to 15 times as opposed to the 50 or 60. So I'm not too worried about the valuation. You know, are you bullish or bearish on Canva?
Yeah, I mean, I, I, one of the things I saw in the notes was the AI monetization and I can only self-reflect and look at my own behavior, which is Yeah, some of those AI tools I do use almost every day actually, which is more to do with like general editing of images, for example, which otherwise I would have attempted to go on Adobe product suite, which is a radically more expensive because you can't actually buy singular products. You have to buy this Adobe sort of suite, which costs a lot of money. And then it's really complicated to use those tools unless you're a graphic designer or a professional. So, Actually, yeah, I feel positive. I mean, they're a company where they've been profitable for 8 consecutive years. I mean, that's pretty impressive stuff. And as they've continued to bring in more AI tools, they'll continue to need to do that, I think, in order to continue to grow. It'll be interesting to see how they can expand that out into more enterprise solutions rather than just individuals like me.
Yeah. And I think, you know, let's say the IPO at a $70 billion valuation. My kind of downside case to Canva is, you know, where do they go? You know, $70 billion's a big number and it might fill up the kind of upside potential of photo editing, presentation editing bits. You know, do they have a really nice product pipeline that can see them going from $70 to $100 to $150 to a $200 billion valuation company?
Putting my creative hat on, the only way I can see them really doing that is to really enhance their video offerings. At the moment, that's really elementary. Like, if they can crack what otherwise some of the other AI tools aren't particularly good at at this point, but start to have more of an editing slant rather than a creation slant on the AI use in videos, I think that could be interesting. But agree, I think they're good value now. Not sure. Yeah, there's a lot. To be desired for it to continue to go north, I would say. So in summary then, correct me if I'm wrong with all of these, SpaceX bullish, OpenAI bearish, ByteDance?
I just don't know whether it's going to happen in 2026. So nothing. N/A.
Okay. And Anthropic, mildly bullish.
Yeah, I'd get involved in that.
Native Bricks, we're not so sure because we don't know enough. Stripe, Bullish.
Bullish.
Revolut, on the fence.
Mm-hmm.
Canva, probably not interested. Databricks.
Yeah, I'd say, yeah, I think that's a fair summary.
Okay.
This is not investment advice.
Yes. Just repeat again. This is not investment advice. This is just us.
Please don't follow me. Yeah. Don't look at my track record. All right, cool.
Well, Steven, look, I know you need to jump, but thank you so much for jumping on and doing this. I'm sure we'll try and pull you back. When we're at the end of Q1, perhaps to see how right we've been about a few of these. But yeah, thank you so much. Have a great year ahead, both for you and your family, and thanks for everyone for listening.
Yeah, thanks, Ant.
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