The Trading Floor: Germany, the "Sick Man" of Europe

Hello, welcome back to The Trading Floor. I hope everyone listening has had a fantastic week so far. Before we get into the weekend though, got a little bit of global markets to catch you up on because this week, and as we're recording this on Thursday, we have just seen the release of one of the major features in markets for the week, US CPI. So we'll unpack that, have a look at going beyond the headline, look at What does this mean in context of some jobs data that came alongside that inflation report with initial jobless claims? We'll also look at it in the context of payrolls that we had as well earlier this month. And then ultimately, that's the interview question: what does this mean for the Fed and interest rates? So hopefully this will be useful for that purpose. But also, away from America for a moment, there's also a lot of things going on in Europe, and namely this week the German government predicting a recession. In the engine room of Europe. So how important is that? What is happening in Germany? We haven't really talked about that a great deal in recent episodes, but what does that also mean for the market's perception of what Europe are going to do with interest rates? And so that's going to be the main focal point of the discussion today. But before we kick off, Piers, Rafa Nadal has retired. I feel slightly, I don't know, I feel really sad. I don't know what it is. I just, I feel more sad with Nadal than Federer or Murray. I can't quite put my finger on that.

Yeah, I mean, it's— well, it's— I guess it's one of the least surprising developments in sport. I mean, it's been coming, been injured a lot. But yeah, that's like— it's like two— well, you put Murray in there, but really you got the three big giants of, of men's tennis, um, with obviously adding in Novak Um, so there's only one of them left. Um, last man standing. He, he's your favorite though, right? Novak.

He, he is the GOAT. I'd just like to say as an analyst looking objectively at the numbers, he is the GOAT. Let's be, let's be frank here.

Yeah, but come on, just step outside the numbers for a sec and, you know, go with your, go with your gut, you know, who's the, who do you like the most?

Tim Henman.

Uh, let's move on before this gets any worse.

Okay, it's good to get out of hand. So, okay, so let's talk about US headline inflation. I guess the easiest way to kind of sum up the numbers is everything came in 0.1 higher than expected. So the headline year on year, 2.4% versus expected 2.3%. Core reading also 0.1 higher than expected, but As always, Piers, with inflation, there's always more to it than just that superficial reading, right?

Yeah, exactly. And I guess that— so there's really two readings here of note, right? There's the headline CPI, which is just looking at on average how the prices of all the goods in the system has changed. Okay. And then there's the core CPI. So that's where they take out the more volatile items of food and energy, and it's just whatever's left ex food and energy, right? So for that headline one where everything's in there, yeah, it was higher than expected, but the— at least it was lower than August. So in September, the reading is 2.4%, which is higher than the expected 2.3%, but it's lower than August's 2.5%. So I guess the trend is key, and this adds another— it's like the 7th, uh, inflation reading in a row where the headline inflation print has dropped. So that downward trend is still going. Okay, now the same can't be said for the other number, which is the core reading, when you take out that food and energy situation. That was also 0.1 higher than expected. We were expecting 3.2, but it's 3.3%. But here the significant thing is that's the first reading in 12 months where the number has gone up compared to the month before, right? So you've seen a little tick higher. So from a trend perspective, that core reading's like, ooh, okay, that's not particularly helpful when it comes to all the things associated with inflation, which are, I mean, not, you know, obviously the cost of living crisis and all the rest of it, but you know, for markets, it's about the Fed and are they going to cut and how quickly are they going to cut rates? And this isn't what the Fed particularly wanted to see.

Was there anything obvious that's resulting in that core move up then? That you mentioned?

Well, so it's— yes. And so here, and again, it's a bit worrying. So costs rose sharply for services, less energy services. So that went up 4.7%. And then in amongst that, um, you had shelter costs, which went up 4.9%. You had transportation costs that were up 8.5%, actually. So those were the kind of things that, that kind of led this to the upside. And these are the These are the stuff the Fed are looking at, you know, when it comes to that like consumer-driven inflationary scenario, which is the part that they're most worried about. So yeah, I'd say this isn't a report the Fed are going to like. I think it will reduce their ability to cut rates fast. And, you know, we've got two Fed meetings left this year, right? So we've got one in November and one in December. And really, the kind of prediction game that's going on across trading floors at the moment is, right, well, how many cuts are we going to get before the end of the year? And I think this report, again, kind of adds to that non-farm payrolls report last week, where it's basically telling the Fed, look, this economy is strong. Inflation, actually, there's a risk it might actually go back up. You can't cut rates aggressively here at this moment. And so I'd say we're a shoo-in for a 25 basis point cut in November, and then maybe a cut in December, or maybe not. And actually, to kind of back that point up, one of the Fed members, the San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, she spoke yesterday, and she kind of, I guess, just opened the door a little bit to the idea they're only going to cut once more this year. So you got a bit of Fed hawkishness perhaps creeping in here, given the nonfarm payrolls data super strong last week and this core inflation just ticking higher.

Yeah, and as a bit of a reference point in terms of the composition of the Federal Open Market Committee, so Mary Daly is a voter. So what she says matters. And she tends to sit relatively center of that, that kind of spectrum of hawks to doves. And when the center speak and give some clues, that's meaningful because it probably means the consensus is shifting amongst that board discussion. So yeah, that's a good observation. But a couple of other points here with the CPI report, sticking with that first, and then let's talk as well because offline you spoke to me about how payrolls perceptions might have changed since that data report has come out. So going with the former first, applications for US unemployment benefits rose last week to the highest in over a year. That number was up 33,000, 258,000 above 230,000, which in itself is a pretty, pretty meaningful leap. But what, what, what do you think as a trader when you used to hear these types of information, or, or as a market watcher Do you have a process where you're like, hang about, why is that jumped, you know, more than 30,000?

Yeah, right. So when you get big, when you get numbers that are sort of wildly out of line with expectations, the first thought is, hang on a minute, you know, why? What's happened? Is there some sort of, sort of particular one-off circumstance that might have led to this? Which, which, and, and, you know, does that sort of dilute the importance of this kind of big blip? That's the kind of first reaction. More often than not, the answer is yes, there is a one-off situation that's led to this, and, and it's the hurricane which has been kind of smashing into Florida over the last— well, the two hurricanes, I really should say. And, you know, the, the chaos and the kind of destruction this has caused Um, obviously is really bad for all the people involved, but you know, when you think about it from an economic point of view, you know, you can't go to work at the restaurant if the restaurant's been blown away. So this is where they're going down to the, uh, the job center and signing in.

So that as a trader, then you would just discount this and look for— and I know with jobless claims Initial benefits, these sorts of things, continuing claims, it's always a 4-week average that people look at. So for any students out there, unlike say CPI, which is a monthly release in terms of the frequency, with initial jobless claims, it's weekly. But actually when you see that data set on your terminal screen, you see below it a 4-week average of which people tend to lock in on. So the more frequent the data set, the more you need to see a pattern is, is the general rule of thumb. But okay, so that's that. What about payrolls though? You did mention to me that there's been a few more kind of chewing over the bones a bit of that report and maybe not quite what we thought initially.

Yeah, well, you got— I'll caveat this before I explain the point. You know, there's— with all this data, especially with like labor market data and payrolls data, there's so many different little elements of it that depending on your view or depending on your positioning in the markets, you know, your bias is always going to be, you know, picking out the elements of the report that kind of suit your positioning, right? So there's always people that are poring over these numbers and picking out one particular viewpoint. So there's a certain amount of that in what I'm about to say, but it's still worth saying. And the point is that that big payrolls report last week that was way higher than expected, it actually turns out there were a hell of a lot of well, actually quite an outsized proportion of those jobs being created were government jobs. So actually, the figure that I've seen is that there were 785,000 new government jobs. And that's actually the second largest monthly increase on record, apparently. Now, the thing about that is that made up 85% of the increase in the total payrolls number last week. And it actually puts the government workers— the total number of government workers has hit 22.2 million, which in itself is a record-ever number. And I guess all they're saying is, if you took out those government numbers, and you know, we have an election coming up, and you know, a nice healthy payrolls number is always good for the team sitting in the White House. You know, I'm not trying to put forward any conspiracy theories here, but The report I read was basically saying, look, if you took those government jobs out the equation, the unemployment rate, which remember ticked down, it went from 4.2% down to 4.1%, which was, wow, amazing. If you took the government jobs out, it would actually gone up to a whopping 4.5%. So there's just a caveat still hanging over that really strong payrolls number last week, that caveat being, hold up, Hell of a lot of those government jobs, and you know, the government adding jobs at that rate isn't sustainable. And so it may well have lended a short-term blip higher in that one month of September, and we might now see October, November, December numbers maybe start to wind back lower as that government element comes out of the equation.

Yeah, I know you've been hanging out with your boy Trump again here. I was going to say, we need to explore this, this theory a little more. I mean, I like, I like the idea of juicing the numbers ahead of, uh, they've only got to juice them for like one more round and then it's job done. Well, actually, this is the final round, right? Because probably all the election will come just before that first Friday, maybe.

So that's a good question because the next payrolls number will be— yeah, actually, you're right, it'll be November. Sorry, November. Well, No, is it November 1st? Because that's a Friday. It might— we might get payrolls on November 1st. Sometimes if the Friday is the first day of the month, sometimes they bump it to the 8th of the month. Sometimes they don't. I'm actually— I haven't looked, so I don't know if there is one more payrolls report or not yet pre-election. The election is going to be on the 7th of November, the Thursday. Yeah.

Okay. Well, look, before we go down that rabbit hole, let's, well, to wrap it up then. So to summarize, am I right in saying the market reaction to the CPI report has been relatively tame? You could say, I mean, from an asset class correlation, yields are a little lower, stocks a little softer. So first explain to me just why that's occurred. But ultimately, does this change the game or not? What we've seen?

Yeah, market reaction is muted. And I'd say, well, it's muted particularly in the currency markets. And we're going to come on to talk a bit more about this in the second half of this episode. But the dollar's been really strong. And that's because, well, the payrolls number was really strong last week. And now people are, you know, reducing their rate cut expectations from the Fed as a result, right? And this data today is just more of the same stuff. So the dollar has already strengthened, if you like, and so you're not seeing too much action on the dollar side. But look, you're seeing stocks have slipped lower, not a huge amount, but there's been a blip lower on things like the S&P and the NASDAQ and so on. From a commodities perspective, gold's gone up, T-notes have gone up, and so it's all— this is all what you might call a hawkish sort of market reaction where it's just further lowering rate cut expectations, but it's, it's, it's, it's mild-ish. And because we've already been moving in this direction for the last week or so anyway.

Okay. Well, look, let's, let's hop over the pond and talk a little about Europe and yeah. Good to get your take on Germany in the newsletter that we put out daily, every weekday, The Market Maker. Um, I've done two modules about Germany this week, and I think I think at the beginning of the week it was German industrial production rose 2.9% in August, recovering from a decline the previous month, providing some optimism for stabilisation and amid these ongoing recession concerns. Two days later, the German government has revised its GDP forecast to a contraction for this year to 0.2% following last year's 0.3% decline, marking only the second consecutive GDP shrinkage since reunification in 1990. So one was— this is the same press publication talking one way and then the other. What am I missing here?

Well, you're— well, the point is you've got two different journalists probably sat the opposite side of the room, um, and you've got an editor who probably hasn't spent enough time looking at what his staff are putting out. And so you've got one journalist who's looking short-term, and wow, industrial production, ah, great number, cool, that's a headline that'll get some clicks, perfect, let's write about it. But that's short-term, right? And all these month-on-month data points, you know, they can be choppy and volatile. You know, one month doesn't make a trend, as they say. And so whilst yes, all right, the industrial production number was strong, I don't think that necessarily— you can't read too much into that from the point of view of a medium to long-term view on where the German economy is heading. So that's what I would say. And I would say the more important article is the other one talking about, yeah, how, well, the Germans are in trouble. And the stat I had was it's the first Yeah, first 2-year recession. So if you look at— yeah, so their economy contracted in 2023 overall in that whole 12-month period, and now it looks like it's going to contract again in 2024. And that's the first time since the early 2000s that they've had a kind of 2-year— so you can— I mean, it's not a deep recession, but it's the longest recession, you know, since before the financial crisis, which is quite remarkable. But look, they're just in a bit of a malaise, I would say. Um, and you know, this is quite interesting. If you go back to the 1980s— now, when were you born actually? What year were you born?

'83.

All right, so you were— when was Soros's, um, when did Soros break the Bank of England? I think that might be in '82, I want to say. You might have to fact-check that. But look, back in the '80s, the UK got tagged with this label which was the UK are the sick man of Europe. And what that was all about was how the UK economy was in a malaise and ultimately underperforming the rest of Europe. And there were real problems, short-term, long-term, structural issues. And it was, you know, depressing. And in the end, the UK embarrassingly had to come come out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, and the value of the pound collapsed, and Soros made a billion betting against the pound, right? That was back in the '80s. You kind of got the opposite here in the 2020s, because basically, I'm going to label it, Germany are the sick man of Europe here. And for a number of reasons, their recovery post-COVID has been shocking compared to the rest of Europe. The problem is that Germany are the biggest economy in Europe. They're the third biggest economy on the planet, right? And for Europe and the Eurozone particularly, we've always been used to Germany being the absolute engine room of that economic region, um, and is driving everything, right? But since COVID it's kind of just— the engine stalled. And it's quite remarkable, the performance difference. So if you take from Q4 2021, if we call that the end of COVID right? Germany's economy is flat, hasn't grown at all. You know, we're getting on nearly 4 years, sorry, 3 years now for that time period, no growth at all, right? If you take the Eurozone ex-Germany, it's up 3.5%. So Germany is, along with, yeah, Germany's pretty much the worst performing economy in Europe. And has been for 3 years now. And it's incredibly unusual. It's never, never been like that before. So yeah, it's a real issue for Germany and for the kind of broader continent.

I don't have real-time data, but I do have data from 2022. And I was just having a quick look about the top exports of Germany and trying to make sense of where the weakness is coming from. And so number 1, of course, is cars. Cars is $149 billion. Then it's packaged medicaments. I don't know, I guess that's medical materials. Don't ask me to say that again.

Medi— Medi— what?

Medicaments. I don't know what that is. That's just—

I've just made that up. That's not a word.

Someone will know. Someone will lynch me on the, on the pod for sure. And then the third one is motor vehicles, parts and accessories. So it's a lot about the motor vehicle industry. But yeah, I mean, I've— all I've read is bearish news about Porsche, about VW. All these big names are really getting hammered recently.

Well, two key things here, right? Germany's economy is quite unusual for a large developed economy. Unusual in so much as it's— the proportion of its GDP that's made up by manufacturing is, is huge. It's actually just over 20% of German GDP is manufacturing. Now if you compare that to other big developed economies like the US, 10% of US GDP is manufacturing. France, its neighbor, uh, 9.7% of French GDP is manufacturing. The UK is even less at 8.2%. But if you think about China, everyone thinks, oh yeah, manufacturing exporter you know, much more sort of developing economy rather than developed. But China, it's only 26.1% of GDP that's manufacturing. So Germany's not far off China in that sense. Of course, a manufacturing-led economy has been more vulnerable and more exposed to both COVID, but also then the post-COVID, and you might even say the Trump-esque protectionism, you know, vibe that we've got in the world right now. So Germany's more sensitive and more exposed to that. Now, at the top of the list, as you've already said, is man— is the manufacturing of automotives. And here's a crazy stat for Volkswagen, who's Germany's biggest car manufacturer, uh, China's their single biggest market, like including Germany. China's a— so 32% of Volkswagen sales is in China. Right, so what's been going on in China? Well, we talked about it a couple of weeks ago. The Chinese economy is really struggling, um, and that's been the case again since post-COVID. That economy's really failed to kind of rebound, and the German car manufacturers are uber exposed, um, to that. So you've, you've kind of got the fact they're a manufacturing, you know, driven economy, the fact they're so exposed to China Then, because of the Ukraine-Russia situation, energy costs obviously went up, but Germany were way more exposed to Russian gas than any other country, right? Now, which are the energy-intensive sectors? Or manufacturing. So it all kind of ties back in that their big giant sector has been particularly hurt by you know, much higher energy cost spikes than any other kind of economy.

Yeah. And that economic, um, demise, if you like, there's another leg of this, which is political instability. You've had quite a disruptive political— Absolutely. —scene in Germany. You've got rising of more far-right identity politics coming in, fueled by the economic situation, which is normally the case of why there's political change in any developed world economy. So, Yeah, there's a lot, a lot to unpack there.

And look, Merkel, I mean, ah, if only we had Merkel, right? Um, this is the, it's like the, um, it's like Man United, you know, it's the, uh, it's the post-Alex Ferguson era. It's the post-Merkel era in Germany. And unfortunately a lot of stuff's happened and you've got Olaf Scholz. I mean, Bless him, he's trying his hardest, but ultimately the kind of this cobbled-together coalition of the Social Democrats, the Liberals, and the Greens is just a disaster. And nothing's getting done. And ultimately, the longer that takes to get sorted out, it doesn't look like it's going to get sorted out anytime soon. You're going to have further kind of structural problems. There's a, you know, there's long-term issues around skills shortages. There's been a chronic underinvestment in infrastructure. There's too much regulation going on, and all of this is stunting growth as well. So there's this cocktail of stuff that's kind of all come at once over a number of years, and it's, and it's hurting big time, and they're spectacularly underperforming.

Okay, we're going to tie this then to what it means for Europe and how the market is kind of positioning itself for that. 2 quick clarifications. George Soros was 1992.

Ah, I was only 10 years out.

Okay, your, your reasoning was absolutely still appropriate. Um, and then also, packaged medicaments refers to medicines that are prepared, packaged, and ready for use— tablets, capsules, syrups, and so on. So I'm not making this stuff up, folks. That's a real thing. But okay, we'll move on swiftly. So let's talk a little bit about— obviously Germany is having some challenges. Now Germany is incredibly important, of course, in terms of an economy within the eurozone. And the challenge is then for the Central Bank of Europe, which is very unique comparative to the US and the UK or Japan and so on, is they're trying to have a single policy to rule multiple different countries, of all of which are experiencing different levels of economic prosperity, political divisions, and so on. So, A, what does what we've just talked about, how does that impact the view about the ECB and interest rates in the context of against the US? And then secondly, how is the market kind of positioning to compensate for that for you?

Yeah, to put a stat on it, Germany makes up 24% of not the eurozone, the European Union, from a GDP perspective. So that, that's how big and massive and important it is. Um, look, the ECB are going to have to cut rates faster. It's the bottom line. Um, and Germany carries such a big sway around that monetary policy committee table that convenes in Frankfurt every 6 weeks to set rates. And look, you know, Germany need cuts. And, you know, the longer Germany underperform, well, they're going to be dragging back the whole continent, as I've said, because they're so massive. So I think what's happening here is the expectations of interest rate cuts in Europe are increasing just at exactly the same time the expectations for for interest rate cuts in the US are decreasing. And so you're getting— again, we always come back to this point around the monetary policy divergence. And when you're getting a diverging set of sort of predictions, then this translates through into some pretty spicy moves in markets. And particularly when you're looking at the FX market, because that's the proxy. If you take the euro versus the US dollar, and you got, you got both components in that one product, right? And so when you're getting that divergence, that's where you see it the most dramatically. So when you go and look at the euro versus the dollar market, then what's happened is over the last couple of weeks, you go back to actually to, yeah, the last day in September, um, euro dollar ticked and touched 1.12, okay, 1.12. So that means 1 euro buys you $1.12, okay. Ever since then, it's been a straight line down. And here we are, new lows again in this trend today. And we're trading down at 1,0937 as I speak. So you've got a, you know, 265-point move to the downside in 2 weeks, which is really sharp movement. And look, it's people, you know, starting to say the ECB are going to cut faster than the Fed. And The point is, if you went back, I mean, probably just 2 weeks. Yeah. If you went back 2 weeks, it was that people, it was nailed on, the Fed would cut faster than the ECB.

And now it's just, it's just all flipped. So that's looking at like outright positions or market direction. Um, the options market is another way of expressing or identifying market sentiment. And thinking. And here's a bit of a wrap of, of that, and perhaps you can help explain in layman's terms what this means. So options markets are flagging the worst weekly retreat for the euro since July. Traders betting, as you've described, the ECB is going to have to cut at the next meeting and so forth. Bloomberg mentioned this thing called one-week risk reversals, and talking about it as a key options metric used to gauge sentiment positioning for The reason why is at the most bearish level for the euro in 3 months on Thursday, and that the contracts are covering now a near-term period because they're very short focused that capsulates the next meeting. So you can determine the kind of variance of volatility and so on. So, so can you explain to me a little bit more about how that, that works?

Yeah, well, so options. I mean, when you start kind of entering the world of options, I mean, an option contract is a derivative product. So in the derivative space, there's kind of two big common contracts. There's futures and then there's options. And options just are a little bit more complex than futures, but they're pretty vanilla still. But it's a way of hedging. Options are used to hedge your risk Okay, so if you are exposed to the euro, and you could be exposed to the euro in many different ways, and it doesn't actually have to be a kind of hedge fund or a— I mean, that's the obvious way if you just long the euro as a hedge fund, right? Obviously you're exposed to the euro, but you can be exposed to the euro right across different sectors. You know, if you're a manufacturing company and you buy your components from your supplier in Italy, and you pay in euros, well then you're exposed to the value of the euro, right? Or if you receive revenue in euros, let's say you're a manufacturer and you sell 50% of your products to French consumers, well then fine, you're very exposed to the euro as well. So it can be. So if you're exposed to the euro, you'll then— well, hang on, what if the euro goes down in value sharply? Or what happens if it goes up in value sharply? You know, these volatility swings can be really bad for certain players who are exposed to the euro. Okay. So they can hedge off of that and smooth off that, that risk by using options. One of the strategies is called a risk reversal strategy, which is what you're referring to, which is just a kind of— it's a way of using two options together. And so you would buy a put option, and that put option gives you downside protection. Okay, that means if you're long a put, then the value of something drops. So if you're long a kind of euro-dollar put and the value of the euro-dollar goes down, which it is, then actually you start to profit from the move down. And that profiting from the move down, the profit you get from your options play, can offset the losses you're taking from your exposure to the euro, you know, physically, okay? But to— you have to pay for that put option. You have to pay a premium, okay? That's a fixed cost upfront. Now you can— some people are clever and they're like, well, look, I don't want to have to pay a premium to get my protection here. Can I do it in a clever way where I don't have to even pay a premium? And the answer is yes, but it comes at a different cost. So if you buy a put option, there's a premium to pay. But if you then sell a call option, then actually you receive premium, you earn premium. So basically you sell a call option to earn the premium that pays for your put option, right? The problem— or not the problem, the cost to you then is that you do not profit if actually the euro's value goes up. So you're really restricting your upside potential, uh, in order to protect you from your downside risk. That's it. Simples.

So for you, when you were trading then, because you weren't options, you were futures trading, would you pay any, um, awareness to what the options market was doing in order to make a more robust view in the futures market?

Right, absolutely. So look, when you're trading anything— well, if you're trading the euro, you could be trading it physically, or you could be trading it via options as I've just described, like swap options are a big market, or you can trade the futures. It's basically the same underlying product, the euro, but there's multiple layers of kind of clever financial instruments that get created that are based on this underlying thing. So if I'm trading futures, for sure I'm monitoring what's going on in the options market, what's going on in the physical market, because they're all linked. And so as a futures trader, sure, you'd be definitely looking at the options volumes. And what's happened here is that you've got a ton of, you know, downside protection options being put on in the euro. That's just a signal that the market And the players in it, all the traders, are expecting the euro to drop in value for all of those macro reasons that we've said. And so that's just a confirmation signal that that's the direction of play.

Okay, cool. Well, look, we'll wrap it up there. Um, just a final request from our dear listeners, our amazing community, which is we're getting close to 700 5-star reviews on Spotify. I would love to get to 1,000 by year end. And ideas in the comments section of what you'd like me to do if we get to 1,000. I'm more than willing to put my neck on the block.

For those listeners out there who have been with us for the whole journey, you'll remember what Ant promised. Um, was it when we hit 100? 5-star ratings, you promised— oh no, we had to hit 100 by year end, and I don't think we quite made it, but your promise was you'd shave your head live on the podcast. Uh, and we're talking wet shave.

Are you asking me for the same, same thing? So if we hit 1,000 as a community, if everyone takes part and we push it to 1,000 before December 31st. Let's go. I, I wet shave my head. Is that what we're going for? And eyebrows. And eyebrows. I can't commit to the eyebrows. I'll shave my head. I'm not doing the eyebrows. All right. Well, look, there it is. Um, so yeah, if you haven't and you've made it to the end of the show and you're a regular listener, it makes a huge difference. We've just broken into the top 10, uh, for a consistent period of weeks now for in the UK for the business podcast section. So yeah, we'd love to bump that up, give Stephen Bartlett a run for his money. So let's do this. Oh yeah. All right, take care everyone.

See you later.