The Trading Week Ahead: 17th - 21st June 2019

Okay, very good morning. It is 17th of June, Monday. Anthony here. So good to be back after a week or so off the desk and raring to go. Looking at the calendar for the week ahead, there's obviously plenty of things to talk about, so we'll go through the usual routine. I'll give you a bit of a summary of the highlights of expectations of what we think will be the major kind of pivot points of potential shifts in market sentiment and market direction. From a fundamental point of view, and then we'll hand you over to my colleague Sam, and he can look over the charts both intraday and also for the, the week ahead. But looking at a quick overview, you can obtain this chart, um, I did tweet it from my own account yesterday evening, but we'll also issue it in our weekly strategy report. But going through some of the main highlights here, you've got the Empire State Manufacturing Index coming out that'll be later on this afternoon. You've got ECB's Draghi, and if you'll notice, you've got ECB president speaking today, tomorrow, you've then got— I think it's Friday, possibly he might appear again— Wednesday. So he's booked in for the first 3 days of the week, and this is because Centro Portugal— there's the ECB forum going on. That event in itself has some historical significance. Has been an event before, of which has been a platform for some of these heads of central bankers. So the likes of Mark Carney will be there, other heads of other central banks will also be making appearances. So it can be quite key, particularly when we're at this juncture now at the moment of central banks typically turning more dovish given the economic environment and the risks that are apparent, and to try and ascertain where they go to next. So Draghi is going to be one of the key ones. He obviously, I understand, spoke last week was giving hints towards the potential, potential kind of options on the table of further easing. So any clarity around that will be key. Otherwise, going into Tuesday, you get the second Conservative Party ballot. We'll have a look at that in more detail shortly, and we'll, we'll see what you guys thought about the Channel 4 debate that took place yesterday evening. But the main event undoubtedly is going to be Wednesday night I'm going to be delivering that session, me and the team here, live via our YouTube channel. So we'll have the full run-in to the FOMC rate decision, we'll then stick around, we'll analyze everything happening in real time, and then we'll look at the summary of economic projections. This is why this particular meeting is quite key. What's the shape of that new interest rate curve going forward? How dovish do they become and do they come to the point of meeting with that market expectations of potentially 3 rate cuts for the rest of this year. Uh, and then of course we'll have the press conference as well. Uh, then Thursday, more central bank news coming out. We've got the Bank of Japan. Um, we'll have a look at the expectations for that shortly. We've also got the Bank of England as well coming out. So you get 3 of the major central banks globally coming out. The Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England. And then Friday, arguably one of the most important economic data points. This is when we get the PMI numbers, which of course have been moving south, many into contractionary territory, and hence is providing this pessimism of why central banks need to get ahead of the curve with interest rate cuts. And that's going to be all coming out on Friday. So plenty of, you know, that's just a quick overview Lots of things going on, but let's just have a look at the charts this morning, then we'll go through a couple of headlines. And just having a look at the, the general setup here, um, major currency pairs top left, EURUSD and Cable, both are actually flat at the moment. And as you can see, both have found some, some support technically around the low point at the end of trade in the futures market, at least that we had last week. So just a level of near-term price action to keep an eye on, but large reflection of a fairly quiet currency open. The dollar index itself is flat, uh, the bond market, although the Bund's been creeping up back towards pivot, generally about unchanged on the session at the moment. Oil as well sitting around its pivot down here at the bottom, uh, down just 15 cents. So again, relatively flat. So Quite a calm open to proceedings. So let's just get straight into the headlines and what is it that we're looking for, um, for this week ahead. And as I said, the FOMC is really the focal point, and so Wednesday night will really be, I guess, from an overall multi-asset class market-moving direction that could set the tone for the second half of the week. Undoubtedly, that's going to come from this latest announcement. Now, the Fed chairman says extending expansion on overarching goal, no interest rate move expected when officials meet this week. But as we know, it's not so much about the potential for a rate cut this time, it's about then markets are very much priced for rate cut, um, going forward into July and then multiple rate cuts thereafter. And it's about that dot plot matrix, where is it at the end of the year where the median dot plot is placed as to indicate then towards what we feel is going to be the number of rate cuts bedded in at that point. So a couple of charts then with that in mind to show you. This is the first. This is looking at, um, how expectations have changed, and this is looking at the short end of the interest rate curve, so federal funds rate futures in implied probabilities by percentage. And you can see here the pink line is the probability of no change. And really, through all of pretty much the beginning of the year, we were very much expecting that there wasn't going to be any change. Why was that? That's because the Federal Reserve had told us when they shifted back their 2019 view that they were going to do zero. The only problem is, is that we've had quite a significant breakdown in the trade war in particular And that has made people get much more apprehensive, much more pessimistic about the future economic conditions, whether that being the US targeting Mexico, whether that's the US targeting China and the escalation that we've seen on the back of that. That as well, coupled with not spectacular economic data performance in the US, whether that be fairly benign inflationary conditions, retail sales, and so on and so forth has meant then that the probability of no change has dropped significantly. And so the probability of a cut, this being inverse then typically as a relationship, up now in excess of, you know, 80% at this point. So this is quite an interesting thing though, is the hot debate between, you know, I think markets are very much primed for the fact that the Fed are going to sound dovish. The idea though is about how dovish, because markets are priced, you know, so far down that avenue. And is there going to be room for almost a hawkish reaction by net result that they don't quite come all the way to meet markets' expectations? This is, you know, one kind of factor which might make them a little bit hesitant as to pull the trigger so quickly and towards leaning towards cutting rates aggressively. And this is looking at basically the history of US interest rate setting. This goes back all the way to the 1960s if we look on the far left-hand side. What you can see here is, um, this is the— basically the interest rate is the line. So you can see, you know, back in the early '80s, interest rates in the US were nearly 20%, if you remember back in that era. And the red little marks signify when the US economy at that point was in a recession. So the main takeaway here is that every time that the Fed have begun this kind of sequence of cutting rates, the rate in itself has been always much higher than where it is today. So the rate hike cutting sequence of the late '80s, early '90s interest rates were up at kind of 9%. If we go back to the, the dot-com kind of crash, rates were, you know, 6-7%. The financial crisis, interest rates were around the 5%. And now interest rates, as we know, are at 2.5%. So less room to maneuver is the point when it comes to the most blunt instrument, which is utilizing then the kind of mechanics of moving the rate of interest. Obviously now we have other means in an unconventional sense, like quantitative easing and liquidity programs and all these types of things. But, you know, quite an interesting thing to see that there's, you know, there's less room to move this, which would suggest then that the Fed might be a little bit more of the thinking that really, unless it really push comes to shove, we do not want to start this cycle, which typically very rare for central banks to do this kind of one-and-done mentality. One cut normally leads to several, like an interest rate hiking cycle. It's not just one, usually it's one of a series of moves. So a couple of other things to have a look at. I mean, this is the, the state of the global manufacturing PMIs, and this has been quite a an area of focus that markets have latched on to because all three of these lines covering all the major kind of markets or continents from the US in yellow, the eurozone in the blue, and then the China ex-Hong Kong Macau in the red have all been moving south fairly consistently. And if you look at the Chinese and the European one, European one even to a more stronger degree in contractionary territory. And the US is the one that's seen quite a dramatic change of late, dipping quite aggressively towards that level at 50.5. So definitely it seems that, you know, cuts are on the cards. It's more a matter of, uh, of timing than anything else as to how far and how aggressive they go with this. So from a market pricing point of view, what are we expecting for potential rate cut this week? Well, the, the potential for a rate cut at the Fed meeting is currently seen at about 17.5%. So, um, could it happen? Sure, it could happen. I mean, almost 20% of the market is priced for that outcome, but I'd say it's unlikely to be the case. And that very much down to the fact that I think the Fed would want to keep the options on the table and not be seen being so actively responsive to markets, and so that they can still maintain, as I said, both options and credibility to manage this later down the line. Kind of keeping your ammunition in reserve in that respect. If we start moving this out, if we go to July, then we're looking at, um, interest rates could be cut. The probability then is at 70%. So this is very much now priced into the market when the Fed are scheduled to meet at the end of July. And then we go out to September, obviously then we start pricing in the second rate cut. So not only would it, uh, by market expectations would have exercised this July move, we then in September would be looking to bed in the second move, which is priced at 55%. Um, looking, you know, stretching this out and looking at the global central banking kind of situation, this is now looking at what markets have priced to the end of the year. And you can see here we're looking at markets are expecting over 70 basis points of cuts from the Federal Reserve. So this is where we get this idea of expectations of 3 rate cuts, not forgetting the official communication from the Fed as it stands in their dot plots is currently 0 rate cuts. Now this is likely very much so to change but I feel it's going to be highly unlikely that it's going to go as aggressive as the market is suggesting here. And as a net result of the market's positioning, then you might get a short-term knee-jerk reaction of a little bit of a, you know, kind of hawkish response where yields might move higher. If anything, equities might come off, dollar might strengthen under these kinds of circumstances. Looking elsewhere, obviously the RBA is another central bank That's very much alongside the RBNZ, given their economic situations that have been moving already or hinting towards more rate cuts. The Bank of England, very different in a sense, even though they're going to have their interest rate decision this week. Very much, you know, it's a wait-and-see mode. Plenty believe that, you know, if it wasn't for Brexit, then at this point, given inflation moving back to 2.1% year on year, wages looking particularly healthy on a long-term comparison basis, well, actually rates could be, could be an argument for them being higher, not lower, if it wasn't for that huge political risk that's on the table. So Bank of England's pretty much flatlining, which you would expect, subject to probably quite rapid changes depending on how the political scene unfolds. And then the ECB, I guess, I guess that's probably going to gather steam How much so will be dependent on what Draghi has to say in this ECB forum that's going on in the first half of the week. And then you've got the Bank of Japan at the back, again expected to be decreasing rates at some point, but probably not anytime soon is the general understanding that is shared as a market consensus at this point. So yeah, a bit of an overview there of what we're looking at. Obviously the Fed's going to be absolutely instrumental to market sentiment, and that's going to be Wednesday night. So what can often happen, even though if we go back to the calendar there are some interesting things happening, like some of the US data this afternoon, like the ECB's president speaking, or the second ballot round of the Brexit kind of Tory leadership race— ultimately, given the importance of that event, it could be a fairly tame first half of the week because markets really want to hear what is and how far do the Fed go before then committing real capital to work kind of in an intraday short-term environment. So maybe from a strategic point of view, maybe a consideration about how you approach Monday, Tuesday, particularly Wednesday, as the market starts gearing up for that big event, because it could well be that then the second half of the week is where you've got a bit more clarity as to then the market direction overall. Okay, that's enough on that. Let's just have a quick overview about a few other headlines. I'm sure quite a few of you caught the Channel 4 debate on the Tory leadership. A lot of the headlines led similar to this one on Bloomberg about, well, really two things clashing over dictator Brexit. This was kind of referencing interesting. One of the candidates, Dominic Raab, who talked about suspending Parliament so that Parliament cannot block a no deal, is how strongly he feels about keeping a credible threat to force Europe's hand in order to come back then and give a deal. Even though, I guess, most of them are committed to leaving in October, that was the most kind of an aggressive threat, if you like, at really exercising that that route. Two other things that were quite obvious here: one was that Boris skipped the debate. They kept the lectern there and it was just basically empty, so he wasn't there to kind of defend himself. Jeremy Hunt made a pretty good attempt to kind of criticize that, saying if he can't appear in front of his fellow colleagues, then how's he going to fare in front of the EU kind of 27? I guess as we know, quite strategic on the behalf of the Boris camp. He's already so far ahead, it's almost like there's more to lose than there is to gain, given the fact that, you know, these other candidates are so far behind him. And the risk of— he's notoriously bad at sticking to the scripts and putting his foot in his mouth. So better then for the team around him to just take him out of that situation. So There's, as I understand, going to be more nationalized TV debates as this, uh, these rounds, um, eliminate various candidates before we get down to the final two. And as we do get down to the final two, he will have to make this appearance, obviously, uh, to get himself over the line. I'm sure the person that came out probably on top is someone who I feel isn't going to get the party's backing into the final two, but certainly captured, I think, a lot of the public sentiment when I was looking on social media, and that was Rory Stewart. He's definitely taken the opposite ground to the other, what, 4 other people that were there— Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Sajid Javid, and Jeremy Hunt— whereas Stewart has gone for the whole kind of center ground, the compromising angle, definitely taking a lot more been about talking to Farage, but talking to Labour and the Lib Dems. That I think did resonate quite well in his honesty. I think in the fact that he comes across and he's probably the opposite in personality to say someone like Michael Gove, I think people warmed to. But ultimately I don't think the Tory Party is going to back him, so he might survive the cut this time. I think if anything, Sajid Javid might get the cut. And might get eliminated tomorrow, but we shall see. Point being is how much is this actually moving the pound? And as you can see this morning, it's not moving the pound at all. So as much as this is being dramatized by the national media, I actually thought last night's discussions were held in pretty good faith and no one was really clashing, in my opinion. And this doesn't really get interesting until we get into the final two stage. And when Boris does take the stage, does he make an almighty cock-up by saying something highly offensive, for example, which then could well flip the whole thing into, say, what is looking on the bookies' side of things, Jeremy Hunt's best opportunity to then potentially push himself forward into the leading spot. So again, it's entertaining, it's it's— I think it does need to be watched in terms of the public to educate themselves about a bit more of what it is if we did get down this route of voting on a second referendum or a new snap election. But from a market-moving point of view, as I said, it's a non-event until we get down to the final elimination phase. As per the timings, this was a good graphic that I saw last week when I was out of the office, and on the left-hand side just to refresh your memory. So we've had the first ballot, that was when we had the, the cumulative votes of what the Tory members were voting. So if you remember, we then have a next vote which is tomorrow, which a second ballot of MPs for 33 votes is required to progress to the next phase. So someone like Rory Stewart only got 19 votes in the first round, but given the fact that several candidates have already been removed, mathematically then the numbers for other MPs have got to go somewhere. So he technically could get over the line, but he was the one that was kind of lower down last time. We then go through, and actually this week then we could have Wednesday and Thursday further ballots until we get down to the final two that remain. And so this is the process that this is going to go through. As I said, the latter is probably going to be when it's more interesting. This, this graphic, I will share it in the chat again. You probably did see me retweet it anyway, uh, last week. But I thought this was, you know, the— these are the reasons why, um, the infographics that we share in Trading Live or on Twitter are particularly useful. Because here on the left-hand side, you've got a timeline of, you know, what are the specific dates that you need to be aware of, who are the candidates and the projected number of MPs that are backing them, Anthony Cheung. Again, this is important because the process that we're going through of the ballot system is where MPs of the Conservative Party vote. It's then when it gets to the final two that that goes to the 160,000 grassroots Conservative members who then decide who the number one candidate is to then take on the role of Prime Minister. So understanding the MPs' numbers, uh, is important. Understanding what the bookies are saying, I think, is also important. Important because it gives you an idea of about how much markets generally as well are priced for general outcomes. So obviously, you know, the Boris one's quite interesting to monitor. And then obviously being aware of as well the aggressiveness of the stance between, you know, kind of a no-deal Brexit, I guess, after yesterday's conversations and debate, RAB being the most down to the softer Brexit, Rory Stewart being of that, that side. and then the impact of the pound and the rationale. So within one graphic, you've got a pretty good comprehensive wrap-up of all the different elements you'd need to be aware of from a trading point of view, which I think is particularly useful. The other UK headline— I don't think this is particularly surprising— British companies look set to cut their investment by the most in 10 years in 2019. Um, you know, one of the things that we've had actually in UK economic data is there has been periods of surprising strength where economic data has been relatively resilient. Now, a lot of this was at the beginning of the year when there was a lot of reported front-loading in order to build inventories ahead of then creating a short-term degree of demand to get ahead of the March deadline at the risk of a no deal and the WTO tariffs that could have meant. However, that got delayed. That's now October, so it's kind of phased out again. And so the point being is for companies at the moment, there's such uncertain environment. The fact that there's no real definitive dates because they've been so subject to being moved, it all adds to— if you're, you know, a small, medium-sized business— uncertainty about the future. Obviously consumers are a bit businesses start to lose confidence. And this is the situation that you find yourself in, which then gradually tightens the screws on the UK economic performance overall. So not that surprising, hence the reason why it's not impacting the pound. But it's this type of thing where, you know, the UK economy is going to slowly suffer over the coming months. I think that's a, that's almost a certainty. Moving off the UK, quick look at other things. Oil prices, as I said, relatively stable, slightly negative, having just gone through pivot at the moment in futures. I understand while I was off the desk last week, there was a lot of focus in the Gulf, in particular on the Straits of Hormuz, given the Saudi tankers that were attacked reportedly by connections to Iran. So definitely that area geographically still needs monitoring very intently. But the other thing that markets are focused on this morning is about Saudi Arabia and the idea that they're expressing hopes that OPEC and its allies will agree to extend production cuts into the second half at a meeting that will probably take place in early July. So Saudi Arabia still again pushing for the fact that, you know, them being the dominant force within that OPEC kind of collection of export nations, that they're going to get everyone else over line in an agreement in order to continue to support the underlying price of crude. I think if you think about it from a Saudi perspective, and for a lot of these oil-producing nations, if, you know, this chart here is the absolute worst-case scenario if you're an oil-producing nation with a high gearing to the sale of oil. So, you know, the beauty of course for the US is that yes, they can pump production up at record levels because they got such a diversified economy. They can almost, um, make— generate money from selling even with the price at a lower point, given as well the breakeven, uh, for the production values, but also satisfying them having a, a fairly, uh, low price for the middle class for the consumption of gas at the pump as a price as as well. So definitely helps the US, but deterioration in global demand definitely means that for these guys, you know, it gets particularly troublesome for Saudi Arabia. But, you know, as we know, they need to fulfill this idea of fulfilling their commitments in the long term in regard to the Vision 2030. So they're looking to get ahead of the curve. So I would imagine they would be able to twist the arms of the necessary players that be, whether that be even, even with this geopolitical fallout with Iran, but getting them in as part of the deal, and when with the Russians on board as well, which is obviously critical. The other thing that's come out, Trump obviously particularly vocal on Twitter over the weekend, whether it was his criticism of Sadiq Khan over the various violent attacks, stabbing and shootings that are happening in London, but more interestingly about, again, weaponizing this idea of the stock market. And I think this is a pretty tactical and a pretty clever move from Trump because we know that obviously a stock market crash can quite often be accountable to his own doing. But if he can distance the this and talk about that if it does go down, then it's not his fault. He's almost, uh, safeguarding his position already where he can discount any stock market downside that is to do to other external factors out of his control, like for instance the Federal Reserve. If the Fed hold firm, which I think is more the right decision to do, and they just say potentially we're going to cut once this year, but keep the optionality about potentially doing more should the economic data warrant such action. I think that's the most prudent central bank way of going around things, but the market might not like that. And if the market starts to sell off, you know, you can expect Donald Trump to be criticizing Jerome Powell and everyone else to say the same thing. So yeah, typical Trump. I would say more of this is likely to come. I'm pretty sure. The Bank of Japan, the other, you know, we talked about the Bank of England briefly. Bank of Japan, majority of economists see more easing as Kuroda's next move, but definitely not seeing any action as far as this interest rate decision is concerned. So unanimous view on Wall Street that the BOJ won't act at this particular meeting, but again, any wording around the future course of action and what would warrant that action is going to be what the markets will take its cue on to trade. One of the things here that's a real difficulty for the Bank of Japan is that if, let's say, the Federal Reserve does start cutting rates, that means that the US dollar weakens. And so by default, the yen strengthens. And the yen strengthening, generally speaking, is a negative factor then for the Japanese economy. Also for the export names to operate within that economy as well in the Nikkei. And so is it the case that the Bank of Japan could be forced into taking these steps to cut rates, given the fact that then to counteract what would be naturally a strengthening currency on the back of dollar weakness and Fed cuts? So yeah, that's it. I mean, not gonna go on any longer than that. So again, that's the summary of what's going on. So as I said, FOMC is the main thing happening on Wednesday night. Me and the team will be here throughout the evening. You can join us on live on YouTube. It's got a chat function so you can ask us lots of questions. Central bank decisions, BOJ, BOE, the, the leadership ballot for the Conservatives. So we should be able to whittle that down, have a bit more clarity on who's going to really at the end go up against Boris Johnson. At this point, looking still the most likely, it's going to be Jeremy Hunt, but could Rory Stewart pull off a bit of a surprise? We'll see. And then the biggest data points arguably are going to come on Friday when we get the various different PMI numbers ranging from Japan, Australia, through the eurozone in the morning, and then the US into the afternoon. All right, that is it from me. Let me hand you over to Sam. He can come on and give you a bit of a look at the charts for today and the week ahead. Thanks very much.

Hi guys, hope everyone has had a good weekend. Just having a quick look over. We'll start with the currencies. Is the pound actually just coming under a bit of pressure here? Through Friday's low, 126.28 traded on the, on the futures. And we're back down to almost the, the lows of the year yet again. We had a bit of a recovery on the first retest, if you like, of this whole area, but not too far now from that low that we had back on the 31st of May. So slight recovery back up to 128, failed to get above there. Times, and, and we're now back down to those lows after some dollar strength that we saw on Friday across the board. So just having a quick look at this, you can just see if we were to get a break of the, the yearly low, then you are really going back here to levels from 2017, uh, and, and beyond that, really back to 2016 lows. So we'll be keeping an eye on just this, this level in general yet again. Just coming into the picture along with that longer-term trend line to the upside. Certainly you can see the, the strength of this breakthrough, 127.11, 127 handle that we got on Friday. It's already been retested, obviously quite a fair bit above where we're trading now. But should we get any retracement this week, and of course that could happen with the Fed and the Bank of England, a good short from, from those levels could be of interest for sure. Having a look at the euro, again putting this on a longer term chart, we've already I guess had that trendline break which has been so prominent this year. And just going back, you can see any recovery we have, we then get a decent push, uh, lower just multiple times here. Does think, you know, you can start to say, uh, where we're going to get a a further recovery. Not to be. Uh, the euro breaking down again. If we just have a quick look on the, the 240-minute, you can see that trend line really starting from the double bottom that we had of this year. We've had that breakthrough, bit of a retest, and we're now back down on what is a pretty key zone, uh, was the low that we had back in the morning of the, the 6th. Pretty much the, the lows that we've got now failing to to break that twice so far. So worth keeping an eye on. And also you've got just below there, which is pretty much the low of the, the session so far, which was the area of previous resistance on the 3rd. So keeping an eye on that. And similar to pound, if we were to get any retracement over the coming days to the breakdown level that we had on Friday, 1.1341 and a half in the futures That would be obviously one to keep an eye on if we were to have a strong week to the downside. That double bottom obviously worth keeping an eye on, uh, and if we were to break through that, we can see the last time we were trading near these levels was back in 2016 as well, where we traded as lower down as 1.11. So worth keeping a close eye on that low of the year if we are to see another leg down here. for the euro against the dollar. S&P has recovered strongly from, uh, the, the, the low that we had back on the 8th of March. Really strong push higher there. We're now— if we just put the, the 200-day moving average on, that's worth keeping an eye on still, as it has actually decent support, uh, from the push lower that we had from the beginning of May. Although we did chop through it. You can see we're now nicely above it, so still probably worth having that on to the upside. Uh, next key levels, I mean, above where we're trading, other than the recent high that we had back on, uh, the, the 11th, just a bit above there, you could argue 2920 is quite a key level historically. And in terms of, we had good support back here in September last year, resistance turned support in the, the push to the next all-time high, and the first real test of that on the 11th. So I'll be keeping a closer eye on that as well. With the Fed, might be worth just for a couple of these markets, euro dollar included, and just holding back and waiting until Wednesday as well before really getting too stuck in, in this market. But it does seem for now that the sentiment is back towards towards the upside. However, last week was, um, a 5-day week, of course, where there was not one 0.5— not one 0.5% return either way, to the upside or the downside. It's a very slow week, and I would expect the same in the build-up to the Fed. Having a look at T-notes, you can see if I just make this chart a bit smaller just the importance of the levels we're trading at. Just drawing a simple horizontal line, you can see going back here to October 2016, we've just tried to break a couple of times above the, the high from September as well. Worth as well just having a trendline on here which has been respected. I'll just draw this on last week. You You can see starting here from the low of December 2016, we broke through this December 2017 before finding strong resistance later that month, just before the beginning of 2018. And we just tested that again as well. So keeping a watchful eye on this trendline, a break above that could obviously lead to a further push. However, you would, you would expect at least a bit of a recovery in this market as with gold as well. After a strong push of recent times, we've had a double top. You can see that previous high that we had of the year back in late February has also reacted strongly. We've come back lower as well, back into 1340. So nicely above 1300, really strong breakout that we had a week or— well, the beginning of the, the month and end of last month. So keeping a watchful eye on this as well. And this, that, that higher level, you've also got these trend lines from, uh, the multi-year highs to keep a, uh, a tab on if we do push on. You can see that would probably come a fair bit above where we're trading. Looks like it would come in around 1377. So to the upside, keeping, um, uh, a level marked up around there. But for now, again just probably be impatient early on in this market before getting involved in it, uh, in the remainder of the week. Looking at oil, uh, remains to be seen where this market goes shorter term, but certainly these lows around $51, uh, and as a zone, if you like, of also the low that we had back at the beginning of the year, 51 $1.71 is important. So break below that, then yeah, fine, we can get a further push down. But we've had two goes of trying that, rejecting, um, and then we've sort of recovered a touch, just over a dollar, obviously helped a bit by the, uh, the Oman situation, Gulf of Oman situation that we had Thursday morning. To the upside, when would I feel a bit more comfortable that this market is going to go higher? Well, well, back above $55, uh, the high that we had on the 10th of June, the low that we had on the 8th of March, coming in around $55.13, back above that, then I would be a bit more, uh, assured that we are going to have a further recovery. Previous lows as well in the mix should we get above that, closer to $57. Obviously that's a long way away. To the downside, if the $51 handle breaks and closes below, I imagine there'll be a quicker move down to $50 49.10, where we have had previous resistance. So that could obviously act as support for that market. Quick look over another couple, uh, currency pairs. Aussie dollar on key support. Looking back here, you can see we just tested the, uh, the lows that we had back at the end of May, the flash crash low, the 3rd of January, uh, an obvious target should this break through. A couple of times in currencies we've had this recovery where the dollar started to weaken a touch, but in truth it's just given people a better opportunity to get short again. Looking at the, the recent high that we had back on the 7th of June, marking that up, it's just a failed test of the 8th of March low, uh, to get back above. And you know, this would obviously be a nice profit target for people to look at, so I wouldn't be getting too short too aggressively unless we do break and close below. Maybe looking more intraday. Can we get back up to any of these previous levels, uh, 6920, uh, or even 6964, previous support levels on the future— futures that could offer good resistance going forward? Also looking at the yen, just to wrap things up for a quick look over, uh, how we stand, uh, at the moment. The yen, you can see here, has just been testing recent previous high. And just as a level for the whole year, it's been really significant from the beginning of the year, back end of January, to the breakdown in February that we had, the retest in May. We finally then did break through the last day of the month, and we've already had a test of good support there. So keeping an eye on that as a, as a gauge this week of sentiment. You've got to imagine if stocks were to push to the upside downside, the yen is going to come under a bit of pressure there, and we could look for this to, to really, uh, break down as well. Quick look over how the DAX has opened— relatively flat, uh, pushed lower, came back pretty much exactly where we were. And I think it will be a quiet one today. You've got bigger things to come this week, uh, as we just have a quick look over that calendar one more time. Obviously you've got ECB's Draghi speaking today tomorrow as well. But the main events very much going to be around Brexit and the Conservative Party second vote tomorrow, and then any more if needed on Wednesday, Thursday. But also the, the decisions, the interest rate decisions out of the Fed, Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England, before some important data out of Europe, in the US on Friday. So today is very much a more range-bound day, not not one to get too involved in as we come into what could be a busy finish and end to the week. Any questions, as usual, please do let us know. But I hope you all have a good trading day and good week ahead.