The Trading Week Ahead: 29th April - 3rd May 2019

Okay, so very good morning. It's Monday, 29th of April. Hope everyone had a fantastic weekend. Plenty for me to talk about, so I'll try and keep this as concise and on point as much as possible. I'm just going to talk about the fundamentals. I'll probably won't even look at a chart because I'll just leave that to Sam to give his his review because there's obviously plenty of things for me to cover. Just having a look then, this is the, the usual way that we start on Monday is looking at the entirety of the week ahead, and it's a very, very busy week on many different fronts actually. From an earnings perspective, we've now had 46% of the S&P 500 report so far, of which 77% have exceeded expectations on the headline earnings per share, the EPS. So despite a couple of, uh, obviously notable decliners like 3M in particular in the industrials last week, overall most on the balance have been exceeding expectations. And this week, no different, we're looking out for more to come. And as we'll get to at the end, uh, with the summary, some of the remaining tech giants like Alphabet tonight and Apple tomorrow are due to report. And definitely warrant keeping an eye on if you're looking at the tech space in the NASDAQ. From the Dow Jones, you've got 5 of the Dow's 30 reporting this week. So that's the earnings side of things. One thing I'd just like to mention right from the off is it's the Golden Week in Japan, and actually I believe it's a— is it a 10-day holiday? It means then that this is the longest public holiday in Japan since the Second World War. And one thing that news agencies have been very quick to jump on is the fact that whenever there's a market holiday, it means that volatility in the Japanese yen can be extreme. And that's when we can lead to these kind of very erratic, almost like a, you know, if a fat finger goes through an illiquid market, you get these big kind of mini flash crashes. And this has often happened specifically during market holidays in Japan. So one word of warning I would say is that for the next, let's say, week and a half or so until they come back fully into market, if you're holding any type of yen position, I probably would want to be, you know, closing that out, not having anything open during the overnight sessions for next week or a bit. Otherwise, yeah, lots of data, and I'd say it's a It's really split between America and China. So just those two countries alone really are right at the top of the kind of global macro focus. So both are going to be particularly important for China. Did have some data overnight actually from China and industrial profits. Well, actually, this is at the weekend and they were stronger than expected. So continues to kind of solidify this idea of stabilization given the great efforts that the government and central bank went to in the first quarter to mitigate the decline that was seen at the end of 2018. So that's leading us up into then the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs. So we kind of get the, the government-led figure on Tuesday, we'll get the Caixin number on Thursday, but obviously this is key pivotal data for the overall kind of global growth outlook going forward, particularly given how fragile sentiment was just a few weeks ago. Uh, on a median consensus, the manufacturing PMI in China, importantly, that's expected to move back into expansion. Uh, I believe the expectation is for 50.5. That'll be the first move back above 50, the kind of threshold for growth, in 4 months. So that would be a, an interesting supportive factor, I feel, for an equity market which has obviously got a few people questioning whether or not we're getting a little fatigued at the top here. Having hit now all-time highs or retested close to in the futures market, having seen that achieved in the cash market at the beginning of, of last week. So that's the Chinese side. On the US side, it's kind of littered with important economic data, obviously bookended by the release of US non-farm payrolls. And this of course comes after US GDP surprised on Friday, although a lot of people were picking bones talking about this kind kind of infantry buildup, a lot of one-time item effects that kind of artificially lifted the figure. The fact is it was growing at 3.2%, stellar growth coming in a low inflation environment. Does this keep the Fed in a kind of very accommodative policy stance while, as we're seeing, corporates can outperform and have a low lending environment for the foreseeable future? And is that a net positive catalyst overlaying then the Chinese narrative as well. Uh, be interested to see how equities certainly perform this week, and, and Sam will run over some of the technical setup. Um, from the US then, the other things you get, uh, Chicago PMI, uh, Conference Board Consumer Confidence, pending home sales, all coming on Tuesday. Uh, and of course you've got the FOMC interest rate decision that is happening on Wednesday night. Just as a heads up, Sam and I will be doing a live broadcasted session via YouTube channel. So if you are watching this on YouTube, don't forget to subscribe to the channel and you'll get a notification as soon as that goes live. So that's going to be of course at 7 PM with a press conference to follow. Um, with the FOMC, let's just have a quick look. This is what market expectations are in federal funds rate futures. So markets are are 97% priced for no change in interest rates. So not expecting any change there. What people are going to be looking at with great interest in both the statement and the accompanying press conference and Q&A with Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, is are the markets right to be positioned so dovishly? Now, if we look at this, um, this kind of indicator from the short end, uh, from the CME Group. If we start to broaden this out to later that into the other Fed meetings for in 2019, you can see if we go to the September meeting, which was one of the next main ones, which obviously is accompanied by the Summary of Economic Projections updates at that point in time. And you can see here that the prospects of rates remaining where they are at this point is only 50%, and you can see an increasing prospect of a rate cut of 25 basis points cuts to the tune of about 39% is what the market's priced for come September. And you can even see there is a portion of the market looking for almost 100 basis points worth of cuts, which is— I find just incredible at this point. But moving out to December, this is what the markets have priced then, is we actually tip the balance, and by year-end, the most favored move is actually that we cut rates by 25 basis points. Bloomberg reporting this morning then that, you know, are we going to get a shift in tone from the Fed? Not that they're going to sound— I mean, they're already in a dovish mindset, but do they lay any hints towards the potential options around a rate cut at the end of the year? Bloomberg looking back to the data of between essentially the period, I think it was 1995, 1995 into 1996, we went through an era of interest rates going up and then a complete policy U-turn when rates kind of— the, the rate hiking cycle went up and just came immediately back down as they thought that basically they'd made the wrong decision. Um, the one clear difference though, I'd say, from that era to this is that at the time the tightening cycle was taking, um, rate hikes I think were to the tune of 75, 50 basis point moves higher. So it was far quicker pace than what we've seen seen through the return of the rate rise sequence through the financial crisis kind of recovery. So I think you're— I think personally you're clutching at straws a little bit to think the Fed are going to take that kind of communication change as soon as this meeting. I actually don't think that's going to happen. I think the Fed would be right to hold their existing pause, kind of more neutral stance on rates, if you like, now that they've set their stall for no rate hikes in 2019. And in fact, given that, and given how dovish this market is priced, as you can see, I actually think the markets might perceive it as being a little bit dovish in— or a little bit hawkish, excuse me, in reaction. Not that it's hawkish, but by just, uh, de facto how markets are priced, too overtly dovish. So again, we'll go into this in much more detail on Wednesday night. So that's, uh, FOMC. You've also got the Bank of England, of course. Of course, the Bank of England interest rate decision. And, and, uh, you'd be forgiven for forgetting it's actually the quarterly inflation report. And usually we'd be hyping this up, we'd be talking about how important it is to get the kind of near-term horizon outlook from the Bank of England. But we all know the situation here is pretty much null and void because without the clarity over the political situation of Brexit, really forecasting outlook for growth inflation for the next 2 years is nigh on redundant. And so yeah, Bank of England could be, uh, you know, something to spark a little bit of very small short-term intraday volatility, but I wouldn't be looking for it to be a real game changer for the pound. With the pound though, we do get the sequence of the PMI data coming out throughout the week, and as per usual, the sector of which generates the most as a contribution to economic growth in the UK, of course, is the service PMI, and that's going to be coming out on Friday, kind of front-running the release then of non-farm. So I'd say from a pound point of view, you've kind of got 3 metrics that I'd be watching. Number 1 is going to be updates, of course, to Brexit. And while we're on that subject, let me just show you this article here. This, of course, is a Guardian newspaper And Labour has hinted at backing a Brexit deal without the promise of a referendum, which I thought was quite an interesting scoop here that The Guardian have. Labour is prepared to sign up to a Brexit deal with the government without the promise of a referendum attached if cross-party talks make significant progress in the coming days, according to one of the party's negotiators. I'd say that is a slight movement on the Labour kind of lines, if you like, of their negotiation stance, and something which might make it a little bit more favorable for some of the Tory members. Interestingly, there's a couple of other things here, as I said, to look out for, for the UK and the pound. So this is the Brexit status. Talks do resume today. So as ever, we need to keep an eye on this and be mindful of any, of any potential updates. Um, one thing that this article goes on to say though is that Theresa May could be gone in June if cross-party talks fail. That seems to be the latest in terms of a potential departure of Theresa May. The bookies at the moment have it most favorable in July. So basically then she's probably going to come out the other side of the the European elections at the end of May with an absolute battering, and that's going to be enough then to usher her aside. Reading some interesting analysis out of Nordia, I'll share the research doc in the chat after the briefing, but it's essentially saying then that after these local elections, which it's anticipated that May's, or the Tory Party could lose up to 800 councillors across Britain, given the fact that this will act as a bit of a proxy vote against the government in its dissatisfaction of handling of Brexit. And that on this subject, the local elections in the UK of course are happening this Thursday, and that means then that this is going to be enough for pushing her out at the midpoint of summer, which then means you'll have a new conservative leadership race through the back end of summer, meaning then that the October 31st deadline could well be delayed again till March 2020. That's what some analysts are predicting at this present point in time. So yeah, that's the, the kind of political side of things. But I mentioned there's a couple of other factors here. So that's the politics— Brexit, local elections. You've then got the data. Which is the PMIs. As I said, you'll get the manufacturing, the construction, the services, uh, tails on, on Friday. And then you've got the third and final thing here is the Bank of England as well. So quite a few things to contemplate. Probably the fourth, obviously, catalyst if you're trading cable is you've got the dollar. You've got a whole host of major economic data points coming out of the US alongside the FOMC as well. So a lot of considerations here to think about from that respect. A quick look then, a few other headlines I wanted to share with you just to get you up to speed. This is where I embarrass myself with how bad I am at my Spanish, but I'll give it my best shot. So, Sánchez— obviously we had the Spanish elections at the weekend, and if you were looking at the European charts this morning, i.e., the the euro, the DAX, the Bund, you know, you can see that the market doesn't really care about these elections at all. And that's because the fact that they've gone pretty much as expected. Sanchez wins the Spanish vote but may need the help from some of the other smaller separatist Catalan parties in order to govern. So just a quick overview and a few points and associated numbers here so we're all on point. The socialists won 123 seats in the election on Sunday, up from 85 in 2016. The left-wing ally Podemos had another 43 seats, while the Basque nationalists, another group likely to support Sanchez, had 6. That would give Sanchez 172 seats, but you need 176 for a majority. Parties preparing to fight for European elections obviously they're happening at the end of May, means then that any formation of this government in whatever shape or form is likely to be put off and we're not going to see it for another month anyway. So hence, you know, this is a very slow burner. It doesn't really change the narrative too much. Hence the market movement has been fairly muted. Sanchez then going forward has two options: an alliance with the liberals of Ciudadanos, a cobbled-together government with Papademos and a hodgepodge of smaller regional parties with the support of moderate Catalan separatists. The leader, though, of the Liberals has ruled out supporting Sanchez to focus on becoming the most dominant force on the right. And so the Esquerra Republicana, the more moderate of two Catalan separatist groups, won 15 seats. And if Sanchez doesn't convince them to vote in favor of his premiership, he could settle for the party's abstention, and that would be enough then for him to govern overall with the majority. So yeah, I'm not going to talk about that anymore, uh, because at the end of the day, this is going to play out over the next coming weeks, and the market reaction to this says it all. I would not be basing any euro-based decision, let's say, on the back of this outcome if you were thinking of strategies this morning. Another thing that's just warrants a mention because I did talk about it in the briefing on Friday, uh, and of course after market on Friday we had Standard Poor's update on their regular set review of Italy. Obviously a lot of people looking at that in regard to the potential, albeit incredibly low risk, of being cut to junk given that they're rating just above that key threshold at the moment. But S&P have confirmed Italy's rating essentially and said they were giving them more time to implement the reforms. Um, the rating agency expecting Italy's economy to stagnate this year. So if anything, you might get a reflection of a little bit of a sigh of relief in domestic assets. It might contribute to a little bit of bond movement in BTPs and consequent tightening of the BTP Bund spread potentially as the market gets underway this morning. Final things then for me to mention. I'll hand you this, Sam. Um, this was one I just wanted to say. Um, we talked about US GDP outperforming. We talked about the fact that China has stabilized. Industrial profits were up at the weekend, and manufacturing PMI is expected to go back to expansion in the PMIs on Tuesday. This was an interesting comment out of analysis by Goldman Sachs at the weekend, and they said that China will notably boost euro area growth in 2019. And what they were looking at was some statistics overlaying then the performance of what happened in 2016. Now, in Q1 of 2016, China was kind of opening up the ammunition box, if you like, in order to counteract what was a quite violent downturn in their economy through summer of 2015 into the beginning of 2016. That was when we were going through the era of this potential hard landing risk in China, and so they had to throw everything at turning the economy around. And we've seen a similar type of thing in Q1 of 2019. And so back then, what happened was, as China started to turn around and recommence its growth path, that fed through quite quite nicely into euro area growth, and in particular the German economy. Now, I point this out because the German economy, of course, has been particularly weak. You've seen that down at 44 in its manufacturing PMI, very deep contractionary territory for— and most important in terms of economic growth in the eurozone area. So it'd be interesting to see whether this plays out again and whether, as Chinese means demand starts to pick up again. Does this consequently start to lift Germany out of the doldrums and therefore start to play into this idea of a bottoming out in Europe? One thing, or two things, I would say. For one, don't forget Goldman's called out the bottoming out of Europe about a month ago and got their timing quite badly wrong. And this article definitely fits that narrative of talking up their book. So just be aware of that. We are talking about a sell-side institution here. And two, when you're making a comparison to 2016, in that era, all of the stimulative action that China took was— a lot of it was geared around industrial activity measures, which consequently then means that you have a nice read across into demand exporting out of Germany, which is good for Germany. In this time, what's happened is a lot of infrastructure domestically through fiscal spending, which doesn't have such translation into being so favorable for Germany this time around. So yeah, maybe a little bit talking up their book, but interesting nonetheless. Nonetheless, excuse me. Final thing I wanted to mention then, and then we'll wrap things up and I'll hand you over to Sam, is we had a really interesting move in oil on Friday. Of course, quite an aggressive pullback on the break of a— well, I'd say a test more than a break of a long-term trend line that's been in place since the bottoming out on Boxing Day or Christmas Day of 2018. But the CFTC data would suggest that hedge funds still remain of a bullish mindset, and in fact they boost their bets on rising prices for a 7th week. Oil, oil now is on its longest bull run in 13 years, and in fact hedge funds have increased their bullish sentiment on US crude prices for the last 9 weeks. That's the longest run since 2006. But with that being said, you know, the great old saying is when everyone is long the market, that's pretty much calling up— calling the peak then of that particular price run. Particularly if the market's so overtly positioned in one way, if we get a bit of a downside pullback, you start to see a lot of these positions get squeezed and you can get quite violent moves in the other opposite direction if everyone's kind of positioned in the other way. So yeah, we did see an interesting— and it was very much a technically led pullback, I'd say, that created that meaningful move lower in crude on Friday rather than anything fundamental, because all of the geopolitical risk still remains on the table. So as particularly Iran and Libya and so on is concerned. On that front then, to wrap things up, a couple things I would say on that point. Keep an eye out for anything out of Russia and Saudi. Russia were talking at the weekend in the energy market and saying that they would continue to adhere to the OPEC+ cuts, saying that there's no need to increase production. This obviously a little bit of an indirect shot at Donald Trump and the Americans who've been trying to push Saudi to put their foot back on the pedal and produce more in order to offset then any potential reduction in Iranian crude. So definitely that's worth keeping an eye on. On the trade talk element, Lighthizer and Steven Mnuchin, the two kind of main negotiators on the US side, go back to Beijing this week. To continue this push for a potential signing of the top-level trade deal by Xi Jinping and Trump at the end of May. So that's definitely the only risk, I'd say, to the trade talks that would be meaningful for the markets that you guys are trading, is if the talks start to hit a bit of an impasse. A potential breakdown of those talks could definitely take equities back down a few notches, given how elevated we are, and that could well help exacerbate some of that potential correction in crude if that was to continue. So final thing is earnings, and then I'll hand you to Sam. Uh, major ones here that you're looking out for: Alphabet aftermarket, uh, today. You got GE, Pfizer, McDonald's, Merck, General Motors all pre-market Tuesday, with Apple aftermarket Wednesday. No one really massive to speak of, and same case really with Thursday and Friday. But don't forget, there are roughly 164 companies, 5 Dow reporting throughout the week, but they're your kind of top-tier major ones. Out of the UK, you've got BP and Glaxo on Wednesday, HSBC on Friday. So if you're a FTSE trader You know, don't be caught out looking with a pure technical setup without pre-market knowing ahead of the cash equity open what your results were. BP, Glaxo, big firms coming out on Wednesday. Uh, usually Glaxo, if I remember rightly, comes out during session as well, so an additional risk if you're contemplating any strategies there. And you've got HSBC, one of the largest components of course, reporting on Friday. All right, that is it from me. I'm going to hand you over to Sam. Uh, as I said, very busy week, lots there to, to consider. I'll have a full strategy report going out to you guys in about 1 or 2 hours' time. Otherwise, I'll see you in the chat room, and I wish you a very good week ahead. Thanks, guys.

Hi guys, hope everyone had a, uh, a had a good weekend, and anyone that ran the marathon is recovering nicely. Have a quick look over, uh, the currencies to, to begin with. Actually, well, I should just set the corner of my eye. I've seen the Bund here just come under a bit of pressure, just pushing to a low that we haven't seen really since Wednesday evening. So just breaking through its, its S1 that you can see here. T-note sort of following suit. Equities not really doing too much. Here, but the Bund just under pressure along with, uh, with T-notes. The Euro not doing too much, although the DAX and Euro stocks did just come under a touch of pressure here. So you can just see here, if we have a look over the DAX as well, you can see just on the last sort of 7 minutes on that open, just pushing lower, that snapping back. One to keep an eye on along with the Bund there. Just having a look at the, the Euro Look, coming in this morning and just sort of seeing the failure to make a new low, obviously a 22-month low at that, you could start to wonder if we're going to see a bit of a recovery into the next couple of days to begin the week. However, this has been the case for many weeks now where you start to— if we just put this on a longer-term chart— where you see that failure to make a low and you get that recovery, albeit to then have a better opportunity to come lower. So with that said, just having a look at a key level, or key zone if you like, to the upside— the, the high that we had on Friday, got the R1, got the low that we had back on the 24th— as a zone, that would be an area I'd be pretty well focused on. And even if we were to get through that, you've got quite significant resistance from the, the low that we had on 24th afternoon and the 23rd, uh, as a day as a whole. But for now, I wouldn't be looking to get too aggressively short unless we see perhaps this level hold and then come back lower to continue what is still quite a clear downtrend for this market. As with the pound, which I'll come on to in a moment, probably worth as well as if we do start to, to push higher. You can see the, the sort of the trend lower, maybe getting on a bit of a trend line. Obviously this one wouldn't come in until that R1 would come into play, but definitely would be something that I'd have marked up on that chart. So you can just see the, the first test of that on the, the 17th, 18th, the 23rd, and then potentially with the high of yesterday, uh, Friday, R1, and that trend line test, uh, something to bear in to mind for the euro over the coming session and days. But like Anthony mentioned it, from a data point of view, it's, it's a pretty good week. The pound, pretty similar, um, in that we've had a bit of a turn, a bit of dollar weakness perhaps from that, that figure that we got on Friday. Trend line, looking at this, it's not the, the best trend line in the world, but you can see we're sort of coming up to— or just, well, as I was doing, we were coming up to it, didn't really have the third test, but we are just a bit above that now, uh, key level, the, the high of yesterday, Friday if you like, in the R1. But I'll just be a bit careful of getting too, again, aggressively short here just because it does seem we are starting to turn a bit. I think for any shorts higher up, you're almost better off seeing a bit of a false break to come back lower, get that confirmation that we are pushing uh, to the downside. Uh, again, the higher Thursday or the 24th— I think that's the, uh, Wednesday— and the low of Tuesday is a good zone with the R2 as well, should we get a push-up to that. Albeit just technically, you'd expect some resistance around here and the 130 handle. Aussie dollar, yeah, it's gonna put this on a longer-term chart with the, the pivots. I know it looks relatively messy, so I'll just take that off. But you can see a couple of banks were talking about now Aussie is the time to buy, and you can see, uh, their reasoning really for that. The, the 8th of March low was also the, the day after the, the flash crash low on the, the 4th of Jan. Really good support that has come into play. Looking at this as a sort of a longer term chart, you can see it's gonna have to struggle to get through what was the high of Friday. All these lows going back to the middle to late end of March, early April, should— along with— let me just put the pivots back on— along with a couple of the previous lows from the 23rd, R1 as well, you'd expect to find some significant resistance around this point. So if not already short, it's not a bad level, a zone to consider. With the recovery of uh, the pairs against the dollar, uh, you sometimes will get these, uh, trends that appear. And you can see Aussie, uh, looks pretty decent. Let me get that line back on there. So you can see just for going back from Thursday to Friday morning, and then obviously the, the data at half one, we've got this trend line pushing higher. So with this market still obviously under a lot of pressure overall in the longer term chart, break of that could be pretty interesting to, to get an area to get short. So I'd have that trend line on for Aussie. Kiwi was the same with a key level holding quite, quite well, and as long as those levels hold, then there will still be some appetite for, for the buyers. Have a quick look over at the yen, but just the, the last 3 trading days probably shows you how little you want to focus on this market. I would suggest— I'd prefer, if anything, just to go off what equities do in the afternoon and to see if there is any sort of risk-on, risk-off correlation to play on. From a technical point of view, just, you know, we had that period of a couple weeks where it was really quiet. Now we're just getting these big swings, and I just wouldn't really fancy trading it at the moment compared to the other markets. Having a look at equities Mentioned, if you are going to have a look at the yen, the afternoon is probably a better time to go with it. Uh, buy the dip mentality, or a dip in the day, still seems to be one that's working. The, the low that we had on the 25th, you can see, was the high from the 18th to 22nd, and good resistance on the 23rd. And since then, we have pushed higher using that as a, as a sort of gauge, as potentially a point to get in later on. You've got the, the highs that we had, you can see, on that Thursday, which we then found resistance before support on Friday. So around 2935 is a, a pretty key level that I'd be focusing on for the S&P right now. All things considered, I think we still go higher. Even oil coming down significantly on Friday didn't really look to affect this market. So yeah, most earnings are done now. The Fed will be interesting on Wednesday and Non-Farm Friday, but it seems like the only way, uh, for the next week or so is, is to the upside. And I would still go with that, all things considered. The NASDAQ, key point, we're not too far away from it. You can see we had good support turn resistance back on Thursday, and we just hit that again around 7,851 on the futures this morning. Uh, that's the almost your line in the sand. We get back above there, you'd imagine there'd be a decent sort of push towards that, the R1, which again you would expect some decent, uh, resistance. If we were to come lower, S&P, uh, to that 2934-35 level, the pivot for the NASDAQ would most likely look to, to come into play around that. The low that we saw on Friday didn't quite make the, uh, sort of the, the high that we had back on 23rd, it's still a relatively good opportunity to have got in to reverse these moves. The, the Dow, which on that, uh, day where the S&P— what, uh, opportunity to buy the dip— had its own level of support which held well from the 18th and the 15th respectively. Uh, key level to, to take— well, key levels I should say, to take into consideration for, for the Dow, just above today's R1 good level of resistance from the 25th and the 24th, around 26,576 would be somewhere I'd focus on, as well as the, the, uh, previous high that we had back on Friday. If we were to push lower, probably worth having on a bit of a trend line to see if can we get that third test. But for the bears to get excited again, you're going to want those lows from last week and the week before to break through. But again, equities do seem like the only way is up for now. Oil, it wouldn't be too surprising, would it, to see come the end of the day a recovery in oil price. I'll wait for Tim to get on later to, to give his full debrief on it. Just having a look with this market, probably worth having the fib on from that move. And the, the reason, just placing that, you can see around the pivot would look quite good. And I'm just going to remove that and draw the lines on those just to clear it up. From a sort of retracement point of view, where I'd be more confident that that is going to happen if we were to get above 63.62, you know, I wouldn't be too surprised to see a quick move up towards 64.35 and so on. Oil, especially especially in an uptrend. Overall, let's not forget that it wouldn't be too surprising to see a quick retracement. For that short though, if you are looking, the pivot does look a good area. You got the resistance we had back on Friday and the pivot of course as well. If you're looking for a continuation, we just found support on a good area from Friday afternoon, a bit of resist— uh, support just below that as well. But we're sort of stuck been this, this mini range for now on the low volume start to the week. But as a key zone goes, between 63.37 and 62 on the futures would be somewhere I would, I'd have marked up. If it gets above that, then I think you've got to be quick to change your mind about where this, this market could go as well. Having a look to wrap up before a quick overview of the market Let's have a look at gold. The pivot is key, and you can see we have a bit of a test of that— was the previous high that we had back on Friday. We then broke through, uh, after the, the data, which was of course mixed. A headline was better, but we also had a weaker number in the mix as well. Pivot is key, and that has held well for now. Another test of that, and you probably would see a further breakdown. But over the last few days, as you can see going back to the 23rd, we are in an uptrend and have continued to, to keep pushing on. And, and that trend channel from those lows, albeit chopped through on the, uh, the GDP release, you can see just below, uh, the current low of the day is that. So unless we were to break through the low in this trend channel, uh, then I wouldn't really be looking to get too short aggressively but below that should open the door for a move lower. The dollar for now relatively weak, uh, relatively mixed I should say, not doing too much. But the, the currency pairs have just continued their recovery post-GDP on Friday as well. The DAX has snapped back to exactly where it was 30 minutes ago or so in the Bund and T-notes, which had started negatively. And you can see see that further push there in the Bund, just finding a bit of support around that, uh, S1. So I have a quick look into, into that. But yeah, just to wrap up that week, it does look like today would be the more quiet of them all. Tuesday and Wednesday obviously with the Fed looking quite interesting before Thursday, and then non-farm payrolls on Friday should offer a decent end to this week. Any questions, as usual, please do let And as Anthony, uh, said, we'll have the strategy report out around midday. But I hope you all have a good day and good week ahead.