This Week In Markets: 16th - 20th January 2023

Okay, happy Sunday. Hope you are doing well. And a quick look ahead for what to expect in global markets this week, starting with how we have finished the second week of trading for this week. And it's been a good year so far. Very early, of course, into 2023, but the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ each posted their second consecutive positive week Actually, in fact, was the best weekly performance we've seen since November. And just looking at a heat map here of the S&P 500, particular standouts have been the technology names. You can see there the likes of Amazon up about 14%, Microsoft 6%, Apple 4%, Google around 5.5%. Investors obviously digesting a couple of different things, namely on a macro perspective, the, albeit in line and did disappoint some of those looking for more aggressive declines, but nonetheless, a continued movement lower in some of the inflation metrics in the US, of course, a couple of days ago. We've also had a couple of the initial corporate earnings kicking off with the big banks, the likes of JP Morgan outperforming, closing the session up on Friday around 2.5% or so. More of those to look out for this week. But let's just have a look elsewhere. Also worth noting, I know I don't talk about it a great deal, but you probably have noticed that the major cryptocurrencies by volume, so Bitcoin and Ether, have had a pretty decent uptick since Friday. Really, Bitcoin has traded from around the 16,000 level middle of last week is actually up north of 20,000 at the moment, as you can see, knocking on 21,000 just in the last few hours, and Ether above $1,500 again. So again, responding to some of the overall risk appetite, the idea then that on a global level, if the major central banks like the Fed start to get close towards that terminal rate, if inflationary conditions start to ease, and then that consequently resulting in some of this broad across-the-market risk appetite we've been seeing. But going to jump in and talk about the Bank of Japan. A lot of people talking about them. They do have their meeting coming up this week. They're kind of the one that a lot of people are looking at because there's been a lot of interesting things happen. And while only 1 of 43 economists in a survey forecast the central bank— well, all but 1 forecast them to do nothing basically at this point, to leave policy unchanged. But many are saying that they can't rule anything out at this point. And the reason for that is because The BOJ's messaging has become a little less clear following its doubling of a cap on 10-year bond yields, and Kuroda in the past has characterized that as such, as a move that would be akin to a rate hike, but last month said was aimed at improving the sustainability of the stimulus framework. So kind of this terminology that central bankers will use to kind of cloak different policy maneuvers that they might make. Now, he will step down in April, and a lot of people are looking at that as quite an important thing because speculation is building that the central bank will then move toward a normalization of policy. So a particular important juncture here, particularly where the rest of the world, like the Fed and so forth, we're now starting to talk about hitting the peak of rates and then potentially what happens thereafter. Now, a couple of things to, to be aware of here when it comes to Japan. Is that Japan's 10-year yield rose above the new ceiling of 0.5% on Friday for the first time since the December 20th gathering, prompting the Bank of Japan to shell out some ¥3.2 trillion— that's about $25 billion US— of fixed-rate bond purchases to rein it in. And as you can see here, this is that big blip that we saw at the end of last week. Now, there are a couple of other banks calling for some different options at the what the central bank might do. Like, so, Citigroup economists, they expect the bank to scrap its yield curve control entirely. So as we're seeing from the exercise here, they can't keep this up forever. Others, economists at UBS and Nomura, they say is for the Bank of Japan to make no change to its policies. It takes a wait-and-see stance until markets fully digest the impact of its December revisions. One of the other things to keep an eye on here when they do have their announcement is new quarterly economic projections released along their— alongside their policy statement. That will come under, of course, as always does, close scrutiny. They are widely expected to show a higher outlook for prices in the coming fiscal years. Inflation data from Japan is due on Friday, which may also show some further acceleration at this point in time. So that's the BOJ. The other thing over the weekend that you probably might have seen in the FT was that Credit Suisse is gearing up to cut more than 10% of its European investment bankers this year, having already let hundreds of staff go in London and Zurich. This is according to sources familiar with the matter in the Financial Times. The Swiss lender did announce back in October— you remember, they were the real focal point of Q4 in the banking system, at risk of potentially further disruption. Things have stabilized quite dramatically since that point, but back then they did say to taking that abrasive action that they would look to cut around 9,000 roles globally over the next 3 years from around its 50,000 or so global workforce. Those plans essentially have said to have stepped up in recent weeks. Consultations have been happening over the Christmas period, so we're going to be expecting the bank to announce their second consecutive annual loss next month. So they're probably going to want to get this cost-cutting exercise out there to front-run then you know, inevitably what's going to be very weak numbers when we get their earnings reports. Um, on the topic of bank earnings, so last week we kicked things off, we had the likes of Wells Fargo, Bank of America, JP Morgan, and so forth. Tuesday we're going to get Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, uh, going to be keeping a very close eye of course on the split of how different divisions are performing. Goldman's have already come out and talked, they've kind of front-run the market again last week talking about how their Consumer banking division's been running a monumental size loss of late, and investment banking obviously has taken a big hit given the overall global economic situation for deal-making has been very protracted, just given the, the rising yield environment. And so the trading activity generally has been fed a little better, but that kind of explains the general story of how some of these more purist investment banks have been performing. So that'll be quite interesting coming out on Tuesday. Um, other ones just to be aware of, perhaps of note, Charles Schwab on Wednesday. You've got Lightspeed Coa aftermarket as well, P&G, and Netflix, always super volatile. They're going to be coming out aftermarket on Thursday as well. But just moving over to look at the week ahead, it is actually a pretty busy one across the board, really, from Canada to UK to China to the US and beyond. So starting off in a chronological order with Canada, The central bank publishes its quarterly business and consumer outlook surveys on Monday. Policymakers are watching inflation and wage expectations as they, as they weigh whether or not to pause their fairly aggressive rate hiking pattern that they've had. Their next meeting comes in just 10 days' time on the 25th of January. Consumer price index, so CPI data for December in Canada, is due on Tuesday, and that may firm up bets for another 25 basis point increase after a pretty blowout jobs report that we saw most recently in Canada. Moving on to the UK, as you can see here, Tuesday you get unemployment rate, Wednesday you get the CPI data, and at the end of the week you get UK retail sales. So a couple of things here. Jobs and wage numbers will allow the Bank of England to gauge how price gains are feeding into the labor market. From an inflation perspective, as you can see here, looking on the year-on-year figures, inflation due on Wednesday may have slowed closer toward 10%. You can see it peaked here in October at 11.1%. Went previously to 10.7, expecting it to show another slowdown once again. Analysts at ING are flagging the bank's favoured measure of so-called core services inflation as perhaps the cleanest gauge of domestically driven price pressures, and it has edged up in recent months. And that will be quite key because signs that this— that measurement is reaching its peak would boost the case for a more modest rate hike in February from the Bank of England. Other things to look out for from the BoE are they're releasing their credit conditions report on Thursday, and it will finish at the end of the week for retail sales on December, which is expected to show a rebound from the previous month at a calendar high point for spending. And of course, all of this, to refresh your memory, comes on the back of what we saw as quite a big surprise for the UK, where the growth, the latest GDP numbers actually came in a slight positive, And again, equipped with some of the numbers we're going to see this week, it's quite a tussle at the moment to see whether or not the, the Bank of England will decide to go for more modest rate hikes or continue at a pace at this present point in time. So quite a lot of play for here for UK-based assets. Going back to the calendar though, one thing that's not on here because it's all mainly US or Western-oriented markets is in the Far East where China released their retail sales report and investment industrial output numbers for December. That's coming out on Tuesday with downbeat figures expected, and this coming because of the fact of COVID's sprint— denting confidence in the final few weeks of 2022. Fourth quarter and full-year GDP data as well from China will likely show the economy slowed under the weight of COVID restrictions and a property downturn. But it's worth keeping in mind that despite the general negativity you might see in those numbers, A lot of people are more forward-looking now, just given the dramatic U-turn that we saw this term— time last week about the full board reopening of COVID restrictions. So it's more about where does China go now, not where it has been. So forward-looking in that sense is how market participants are likely to react to information coming out of that region. Other things, just moving on. So this is China here. Credit growth has slowed more than expected in December, but as I said, It's about, well, what happens now that the shackles are off in terms of the COVID restrictions. And then looking over to the US, after the latest consumer price data showed US inflation was moderating, attention this week now turns to the demand side. And we're going to get the release of— on Wednesday— of December retail sales figures. Purchases are seen retreating for a second month. You can see here, um, the previous reading that we had. Economists project prices fell for a second month at the end of last year, reflecting weaker vehicle sales and a drop in receipts at gasoline stations as the predominant reason there. Other reports on Wednesday include the Producer Price Index, industrial production, and economists expect a further moderation in prices paid in producers or to producers in December. Concluding then, in the EU, it's pretty quiet actually. One of the things though that we'll get on Thursday is the European Central Bank's minutes from their latest meeting, Christine Lagarde is due to appear at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos. This is one of the first times all of this is going to return to normal in the post-COVID world and worth keeping on the schedule. The Davos meeting does kick off from tomorrow and will last pretty much throughout the entirety of the week and does include heads of states, central bank governors, as well as other movers and shakers within different sectors across the global economy. So definitely worth just keeping an eye on your calendars as and when, uh, there's any notable speakers for assets you might be looking at. All right, that is it. So have yourself a good week ahead. Remember to check out the link below if you're not subscribed to our daily newsletter. Um, would be great to get you in the community and start receiving some of the other information that we do put out on a regular basis. All right, take care, have a good week ahead.