In this final 2020 briefing, the host (SPEAKER A) opens with a personal note about the pandemic’s impact before moving into a rapid market overview. He reports that US equity futures have recovered after a brief dip, with the Dow and S&P flat and the Nasdaq showing modest outperformance, driven by continued strength in pandemic‑related stocks. The US dollar is weakening (down ~0.3% in the DXY), lifting major currency pairs; the euro‑dollar pair is near a key pivot, and the British pound is modestly firm despite Brexit uncertainty. Crude oil has retreated to a support zone from late‑November/early‑December levels, while gold is flat around $1,871/oz. The briefing then shifts to policy headlines. UK ministers are reportedly preparing to extend the strictest Tier 4 lockdown measures beyond the southeast, potentially taking effect on Boxing Day, as daily case numbers hit a record 36,804. The host argues that political pressure around the Christmas period makes such action likely, though he does not expect a market shock because the move is anticipated. On the health front, a new COVID‑19 strain has been identified in the US, Germany, France, and Switzerland, with rising deaths in New Jersey, Arizona, and New York City. Vaccine makers (AstraZeneca and BioNTech/Pfizer) claim their shots remain effective, but the host notes the lack of definitive data and the market risk if efficacy is compromised. In the United States, President Trump demanded that the recently passed stimulus package increase direct payments to $2,000, a move the host interprets as political posturing rather than a realistic policy change; markets have already priced in the existing relief. He also mentions the upcoming political landscape in early January, including the Georgia Senate run‑offs and potential Democratic control, which could influence further stimulus. Brexit updates: the pound is up 76 pips, helped by a weaker dollar. French‑British talks on fishing rights remain stalled, but negotiations continue with a possible deadline around Christmas Eve to secure a provisional deal before the UK’s transition period ends on 31 December. The host suggests the market will not react sharply unless a deal collapses, but advises traders to stay cautious in thin‑liquidity periods. Oil inventory data showed a 2.7 million‑barrel build, contrary to expectations of a draw, adding modest bearish pressure, though COVID‑driven demand concerns dominate price action. The day’s economic calendar includes US PCE price index, weekly jobless claims, University of Michigan sentiment, and the Department of Energy’s oil report. Finally, the host points listeners to technical analysis that will be delivered on the team’s Discord and live stream, wishes a safe Christmas, and signs off for the new year.
Chapters
Okay, very good morning. It is Wednesday, 23rd of December, and it is the final briefing that I'll be doing for 2020. So first of all, I really honestly do hope that everyone has weathered this kind of pandemic situation as best as possible, both physically and mentally. I know it's been incredibly challenging for a lot of people in a lot of different ways. So absolutely take care over the Christmas period, uh, do put the consideration of others, uh, on top of your decisions of what you're going to do over that period, is all I'm going to say. But secondly, thank you so much for, for following us on the channel. I hope you've really enjoyed the content, hopefully found some value from it, and we've got a lot more in store for 2021 to kind of up our game on that side. So Yeah, just thank you from myself and the rest of the Dampier Trading team. But look, let's get straight into this, this final briefing and talk about some of the news stories in focus then going into the run into Christmas. And at the moment, both Santa and the Fed doing a pretty good job at just ensuring that equity markets are staying supported. This irrespective of the fact that actually we had a bit of a downward move seen in the overnight Asian session, which I'll get to in a moment, which came after some comments out of Donald Trump throwing a little bit of confusion, um, but in regard to getting sign-off, uh, which was seen usually as more of a formality after Congress has passed a particular piece of legislation that the president signs it off. But not Donald Trump. But I'll get to that in a moment. So a little bit of a dip overnight in the Asian session. However, it has recovered already. And as far as stock futures are concerned, the Dow has eradicated any losses and back to unchanged, as is the S&P. The NASDAQ just pushing on, if anything, a little bit of outperformance. And perhaps that could continue as a theme for the rest of today, because as I'll discuss, the COVID situation, um, globally at the moment is definitely more in favor of some of those pandemic plays, as what we've been seeing over the last couple of days, given the spread now of this new strain of the virus has gone beyond the shores of just the UK. Is what's being reported in the US as well. Still things looking particularly severe for the time being, so I wouldn't be too surprised to see the NASDAQ continue to outperform today, uh, and those associated names probably to be the, the best of the performing single stocks and sectors. Otherwise, elsewhere in the currency market, the dollar actually is backing off a fairly considerable amount. We're down about 0.3% now, just dipping below the Asian range in the DXY and breaking out to the downside. And that has consequently just lifted up these major currency pairs a touch. EURUSD, as I speak, just having a press on at the pivot, which was the restriction of the overnight Asia range. Any break above here, be looking out for a push back up to around 122.3738, which would bring in around the low of the activity that supported yesterday morning's price movement. And in cable, we'll talk a little bit about Brexit as well in the briefing, but I would say the price overall, irrespective of just looking at this from a trade perspective, I think the price really shows a lot about what people think about the prospects of a deal or a rollover beyond then the, the removal of such a disastrous cliff-edged Dec 31st deadline. And as such, then I think there's, there's a degree of comfort taken out of that, and which is why the pound hasn't really fallen any further, at least at this point in time. But definitely there's a few updates I can run you through and things to look out for. Otherwise, crude oil still remaining a little bit more depressed perhaps than some of the other assets, but I think that's fair given the state of the COVID situation I just described. Described, that certainly is going to have some impact on demand expectations. And so just given as well just how elevated we had been in the price of oil over the previous period, I mean, we've come back down to settle in this rectangle here at a previous significant area of resistance and support going back through late November, early December. So I think this is a good area of support, and I think it is a fair area as well in terms of the pullback that we've seen of, say, $3 or so from those initial highs that we had just a short while ago, actually, back on the 18th. And then gold, pretty steady in the overnight session, trading basically flat, up $1 at $1,871 for the time being. All right, well, look, let's get stuck into some headlines. First of all, I'm going to talk about the UK lockdown, and ministers are now considering whether to apply the strictest Tier 4 restrictions forcing non-essential shops and leisure facilities to close, broadening out from the southeast of England to cover more areas of the country. Those— that is according to people familiar with the matter. We spoke about this last week, we spoke about it this morning, or I said yesterday morning. I really don't see any other choice at this point. The case numbers of tested positive yesterday of coronavirus in, in the UK was 36,804. Now that number is the highest on record, but obviously the massive undercounting that we're seeing during the spring, where most thinking is that that number at that time was north of 100,000, given that we didn't have any form of really counteracting it or acting upon the spread spread of transmission at the time, so hence the reason it got so high. So given all the things that are in play now and that number standing where it is, and also the fact that I still see Christmas, irrespective of the move on the Southeast that happened last week on restrictions, um, I still see it as a super spreader event irrespective of that. And so I think the government does need to act. So to support timing of that, The Sun newspaper said last night an announcement on a new tier designations could come as soon as day and could take effect then as of Boxing Day. And again, to me, that makes a lot of sense. I think that I'm talking to someone, they were telling me about the statistics of any government in Britain that's ever taken any type of political action or around, in and around the Christmas period, it has disastrous effects for the favorability of that government. So although we're talking about obviously a health crisis with human casualties. Governments are trying to manage a number of different things here, from their political perception to the economy to the medical side of a humanitarian crisis. So I don't think that they, they're going to cancel Christmas, but as they have done, I think they're just going to move to ensure that they're containing this as best as they possibly can in that way. So I would expect that announcement probably to come later today. I guess the question then is, do I think that that's going to move the market? No, I think most people would probably anticipate that that is going to happen. So that's the end of that for the moment. On the COVID side of things, there's a couple of things. As I said, the new strain is said to have emerged now in the US, Germany, France, and Switzerland. According to officials from those countries. New Jersey and Arizona in the US have reported now their highest number of deaths, not cases, deaths from COVID-19 since the Sunbelt outbreak that we saw in the summer. So this is going back to June, July. Deaths in New York City also are up at the moment. On a slightly more positive note, perhaps, AstraZeneca's spokesperson has said last night that even with these recent mutations, they believe the vaccine should still be effective. Studies though, however, are underway to fully investigate the impact of the mutation. We had a similar type of comment out of BioNTech, which is the partner firm with Pfizer, which was one particularly in focus given that it's already being rolled out at the moment. I kind of see these comments— I mean, the BioNTech CEO made that comment, and this is the Astra company spokesperson. They're making these comments without actually having done any real thorough testing as yet. So I can understand why they're doing it. It might well be on the balance that they have fairly high conviction that indeed it will still remain effective. However, for me, there's such massive risk tied to if the vaccines are proven redundant, because this would basically be like pressing the reset button then going back to the drawing board. And although now there's a lot of, you know, academic teams, infrastructure, things are in place, and we could— we wouldn't have to take so long to get off the ground, so to speak, to start again. But that's not what markets have priced at this point. And so it would come with a very adverse negative effect if that were to be the case. So one thing I think over Christmas I'll be looking out for is they'll be really crunching the numbers as fast as they possibly can. And with the acceleration of this new strain of the virus, I'm sure that will provide them with enough data set in order to get some kind of definitive and more conclusive answer. But that is something which I'll be watching out for very carefully. The other thing then that I was going to talk about was this. Overnight, as I mentioned, there was a bit of a dip in stock futures and Asia-Pac region and local equities, but has recovered after Trump caused a bit of confusion about the outlook for the relief package that's just been signed off by Congress literally in the last 24 hours. And he's demanded changes to that bipartisan legislation to be rewritten. In particular, he demanded that lawmakers increase stimulus checks that go out to Americans to $2,000 from what he called the ridiculously low amount of $600. What do I think of this? Well, I think, you know, trying to be as objective as possible, so by no means am I trying to, to criticize Trump. Looking at it from a tactical point of view, I think it's It's quite expected from what he has done throughout the last few years. I think the move is completely in self-interest, with him looking to frame the situation to channel the optics that would basically create this idea that he would have done more to help the American people. You know, if I had my way, if it wasn't for the politicians I would have given you $2,000, not $600. So for me, it's all, it's all part of that kind of strategy. Ultimately, I think by just tabling a figure like that being so much significantly higher and absolutely unachievable as far as Congress would be concerned, he's kind of done his job because he will now just say that he could have got 2,000 over the line. And that's what he wanted, is other people restricting him. So this is very kind of Trump 101. You have the initial dip overnight. I think that's because people are very sensitive to the stimulus. The stimulus is much needed. I'd say a lot of Americans are quite desperate for it. And that's a reflection of the increasingly stringent restrictions, though. That are happening, resulting in what's going to be probably in the short-term period ahead, uh, more higher rates of unemployment. So increasing jobless claims and things of this nature. So, um, I do think he'll sign it in the end. His job is done. I think he's put it out there now and that's all he wanted to do. So I don't think it really creates an obstacle in that sense. So markets have recovered and I think that really justifies that kind of thinking. Another thing, Biden, we still have in early January, of course, to see how the final Senate seats play out in Georgia and the, the situation there of whether, you know, do we have a bit of a complication with a split Congress, or do actually we get a blue wave? And although most people are expecting it to be split which kind of has had this then knock-on effect of shackling somewhat the blue wave mentality of ultra stimulus. If that were to go blue, well, I mean, one thing is irrespective of that, but even more so if it were to materialize and turn Democratic, uh, Biden is already calling on Congress, uh, just hours after completion of this latest round of stimulus for more relief stimulus to come in the new year. So something to just bear in mind. The other thing then is Brexit. What is the latest? As I said, the pound is— pound is up 76 pips at the moment. I mean, it has come by way of a weaker dollar this morning to get things underway. So most dollar-based currency pairs are higher. Aussie's up 30, euro's up same amount. But you could say it's a little bit of outperformance actually in the sterling currency, in the FX market. So Barnier told ambassadors yesterday evening that the latest UK offer on fishing rights— there's still the main sticking point that they've been trying to resolve this week— was unacceptable. He stressed negotiations were continuing with many other issues already solved and close to being settled, according to people familiar with the closed-door briefings. Barnier has said his team's prepared to keep negotiating after the UK's post-Brexit transition period expires on the 31st of December, if that is what's required to close a deal. Timing-wise, RTE's Connolly, who's been particularly good on Twitter— if you don't follow him, I suggest you do— that he said that there's a basic Brexit deadline of Christmas Eve to get a deal so that it can be ratified in time for the 1st of January. Officials, he said, would need 4 days at a minimum to draft a letter seeking provisional application of the treaty. So yeah, quite a few informed political journalists who tend to have the ear of the right people have, have kind of moved around that date now, centered in on it, about a deal coming perhaps around between the next 48 hours to to give them enough time. Whether that materializes or not, I don't think it's that important. I don't think you're going to get a downside reaction if we don't see a deal before this side of Christmas because they've still got time. And as long as there's time, that's still time to negotiate. And at this point, it still looks like either deal or roll. I think the no deal thing has, has, has dropped. In my mind quite a bit over the course of the last few days as they started to kind of make noises about possible flexibility over the actual deadline in itself. So definitely the pound will still be subjective to potential volatility, kind of blips in the day trading environment. The one thing I would say, because if something big does break And if we do go down to the wire, I will of course do a video over the Christmas period and I'll put it out to everyone. So don't worry about that. And that goes for if there's anything important that does happen, I'll still add content as and when. But yeah, at the moment there still could be rumors, tweets, things like that. And if you're going to trade over that week of the 28th, 29th going into New Year, just be mindful of the market conditions, things do get awfully thin. And if there still is a lot of, you know, he said, she said, rumor mill type of activity, then the price could be all over the place as far as cable is concerned if you're in the day trading environment. So could be better served just staying out of it to put yourself out of harm's way, and then just wait for the definitive conclusion either way on what happens to towards the end of the year. Um, the other thing is just going to have a look at, um, the oil inventory numbers. So we had the APIs last night, comes ahead of the DOE this afternoon. Crude build 2.7 million, expectations actually for a draw. It's a little bit, a little bit bearish on price, but I would say these things are kind of digested fairly comfortably by the market. I'd say the whole COVID demand stuff is really what's more impactful right now, uh, here and now in that respect. So DOE is coming later, definitely this will be our reference point for what to expect for those numbers. As far as the actual day is concerned, it's pretty quiet in terms of UK, European data. We then get into the afternoon, we've got PCE price index in the States, weekly jobless claims of course, which will probably be watched quite closely, University of Michigan. But this is the the final reading. Then we've got the DRE numbers at 3:30, and that's about it. So with that, I'll conclude the, the briefing. The technical kind of look around the charts will be given by Sam, our head of trade development, on our Discord channel on Amplify Live. And then Tim will be on the live stream as well later on this morning. All right, thank you very much, guys. If I don't speak to you before Have a lovely Christmas, take care, and, um, yeah, I'll see you in the new year.
