US Earnings Season Kicks Off

OK, very good morning to you. Hope you had a fantastic Easter break and enjoyed the warm weather, albeit still in the lockdown obviously for most parts of the world, but hopefully you managed to make the most of it. As you can see here, a lot of you might be watching this video in the end on YouTube So don't forget to like and subscribe to the video and the channel. Very much appreciate it if we can grow our community. And obviously every day I encourage people to any questions that they have, any market opinions that you have, just leave a comment. I'll be replying throughout the day as I always do, as will the rest of the team. So happy to engage with you guys and answer your questions as much as possible. Um, one of the things here as well that I've received quite a lot of messages, there was a video that went out in the US about a week ago, which I appeared on a panel discussion with someone you might recognize as a name, Mike Bellefure. But he and I were giving a chat just generally about just what traders look at and how do we monitor news. That was kind of my, my part of the discussion. And so a lot of people have been asking me about how to use Twitter for trading and so on. So if you go on our YouTube channel, this video here, you can see down at the bottom how to use Twitter. Picture of myself there. If you click on that video, that's basically your, your one-stop shop for everything you need to know. So yeah, do, do check that out when you get time if you've not seen it before. But otherwise, let's just have a quick look at what's going on this morning. And overall, a little bit of risk appetite. Obviously, America were back in the market yesterday. We're going to have a look through some of the charts to just see the lay of the land going into today's session, because of course you've probably read US earnings season kicks off today. which is going to be a bit of a focal point, of course, just given the context of the overall economic environment to ascertain how severely yet corporate profitability has been impacted by the shutdown and COVID-19. But OPEC deal, obviously that was the— where we left things at the end of last week. We'll have a catch-up on that. But overall this morning, equity index futures up, generally positive. Dow up about 300, the S&P 33 points, and the DAX about 165. So fixed income a touch lower, albeit just bumping up a little bit in the last half an hour. Still down 2.5 ticks in the 10-year. And then gold still elevated, up $8, albeit off the natural resistance of our 1 that we had following the grind up in yesterday's session. We'll have a look at gold as well, a bit more detail. The currency markets, the, the Dixie's pretty flat, albeit it's just come up a little bit in more recent trade to test an area of support in the Dixie from yesterday evening. London time. So both major pairs just coming off a touch but still up on the day at the moment. EURUSD up 4.5, Cable up 16 for the time being. WTI crude down at the bottom here, pretty much sideways action. As I said, we'll review that in a moment, but obviously still digesting whether or not the market's going to be satisfied with this OPEC+ deal and G20 that they managed to kind of club together a few days ago. So what have we got to look out for, and generally why is there positive risk-on sentiment at the moment? Well, there was some data overnight, data showing Chinese exports in yuan terms fell less than expected. This helped kind of lift sentiment a little bit, at least in the short term. I would say that's generally quite a short-term reaction though. I don't think there's going to be a particularly long-lasting, uh, but Asia up a little bit overnight Uh, the export number for China was -6.6%. Sounds pretty bad, but expectations were for -14%. Um, and then overall continued easing in the rate of new infections in many countries in regards to coronavirus, which is something we can review as well. But overall, in terms of the week ahead, this is what we're looking at. If I transition my screen— earnings season, as I said, I'm going to talk about that in a little bit more detail in a second, but The big banks are always the first to report, so today no different. We get JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and also Johnson Johnson going to kick things off. Um, there's about 40 S&P 500 companies this week, including 4 of the Dow 30 components. Later on in the week, we get Citi, Bank of America, BlackRock, Goldman. So all of these kind of top-tiered US banks. As we go through the week, Wednesday Could be quite interesting. US retail sales obviously poised to fall in March by the most ever seen, just given the immediacy of the, the lockdown. And that's going to have a severe impact on the retail sector, of course, not just in America but in terms of globally. But obviously this is going to be quite a key reading, kind of like what we've been looking with jobless claims. We know it's going to be bad, we know it's going to be extremely elevated, record high levels of initial jobless in It's just how far is that, you know, how bad is it? And I guess we'll be looking at retail sales in a similar fashion. And then on Friday, we've got China releasing its GDP numbers, and that comes alongside then the slew of data they always release at the same time as GDP— IP, retail sales, and their jobless figure as well, all coming on Friday. But let's just have a quick review then on the coronavirus cases. And this is what I was going to look at first. Which, if I just make this chart this big so you can see it, this is looking at daily confirmed cases, a 7-day rolling average, by a number of days since 30 daily cases have been first recorded. Just to refresh your memory, the stars indicate each country's line when the lockdowns were put into place, and as you can see here, a couple of, you know, kind of lukewarm signs that perhaps we're getting to a point where the worst might be over. I know I don't want to jinx things too much, but you can see from the trajectory of these lines, so even though deaths in certain areas are still incredibly high, particularly in America and the UK, overall in mainland Europe, Italy reported lower number of new coronavirus cases on Monday, even as their daily fatalities did rise. Britain should expect the number of daily deaths from coronavirus to continue to rise, uh, this week, unfortunately, uh, followed by a plateau for a period of 2 to 3 weeks according to the chief scientific advisor to the government. That has led then to reports, as you can see here, that one, the UK is likely to announce the lockdown extension this week According to the Times newspaper, unfortunately, if you are based in the UK, it's looking likely that we're going to remain in lockdown until the 7th of May, is what they're saying. So this fits in step with what we're kind of looking at with these curves, is that the UK, you can see here, still yet to get to that plateau point. And when it does, it doesn't decrease immediately. We're looking at around a 2-week period, 2 to 3 weeks, before it then starts to drop off. And that's when they could look to start loosening some of these measures, as what we've seen with Spain. Spain became the first of the, one of the hardest hit European countries to loosen its regulations, allowing workers in non-essential industries such as construction, they've returned to work now. And obviously, much like we were talking about China a few weeks ago, I think this is quite critical now about just monitoring how does that type of loosening of these, these these more stringent rules about the potential for a secondary wave of transmission of human-to-human contact. How does that pan out in terms of these numbers? As this is the kind of new difficulty of which the markets are going to face as a challenge now. A few other things then in terms of these dates, what we're looking at. So as I said, UK is going to be extended likely um, what's the date that's being put around? It's the 7th of May. Italy's new coronavirus cases forwards, daily death toll rises. They said Italy, we already know that theirs has been extended to the 3rd of May. The French President Macron came out at the weekend, said they're going to extend to the 11th of May. India to the 3rd of May has been another one that's come out earlier this morning. And then in the US, now the US of course has now jumped to the top of the pile in terms of the severity of the situation of COVID-19. But Trump has made some comments over the weekend— excuse me, yesterday on Monday— and said that the administration was close to completing a plan to reopen the US economy, including 9 states on the US East Coast and West Coast, which are predominantly the hardest hit when it comes to the virus in, in North America. So Not too sure how to interpret this, to be honest, because the, the situation is still fairly severe. And I would say that they've still got another period of, uh, of probably quite high levels until we start to see a decrease in the likes of, say, Italy and France, who generally are slightly ahead of the curve. Um, so I can understand why Trump would say this type of thing. He's obviously a little bit of management, uh, given the negative situation that we're seeing in the empirical evidence of the US economy, whether through layoffs, jobless claims being at these multi, you know, kind of weekly record highs, the retail sales this week's going to be a disaster, GDP's coming up in Q2 is going to be massively down. And so I guess he's trying to sound positive in a sense that the sooner we can get things open, the sooner he can kind of jolt the economy back to life again. But obviously it comes at a real health risk. So as much as he's saying this, how much is this deliverable? Well, again, I think he's being a little bit optimistic here. Remember when we were delivering the briefing a few weeks ago, he said that the US economy would be open by Easter. Well, Easter's come and Easter's gone and they're still in lockdown. So what politicians say and actually what becomes reality, I think a little bit disconnected, to be, to be quite frank. So one to monitor, but I don't think this is, this is a big deal at this point. Um, this was, you know, looking at projected timelines and milestones for a return to work in the US. Um, if you did want to look at this in more detail, I did tweet it. Um, my handle of course is here, so just feel free to follow me on Twitter. I'm fairly active these days now that I'm at home rather than in the office. Um, so yeah, it's a bit small to look at. I'll let you digest that in your own time, but essentially it was looking at what I thought from Morgan Stanley, quite a nice analysis of the general bottom axis, which is kind of here. We're right in the middle of this blue peak, and the way they've kind of— this is a cumulative value of the daily new cases in the East and West Coast coupled with the rest of the US with case numbers over 1,000. Then it's looking at the general trend lower as we go through the coming months until schools reopen, which is timetabled for kind of September time, and then the potential second wave of infections. But the potential vaccine for health workers, when does that come? And then when does the potential vaccine broadly become available for the general public, which MS in their research are suggesting is not going to be until basically 12 months' time, essentially. So yeah, have a look at that when you get a moment. One of the other things though, what people have been looking at is obviously the US equity market. Now this was a comment, a research note out of Goldman Sachs yesterday, and Goldman's have made a bit of an about-turn on their previous call. They were previously quite bearish, saying that the market was going to see another pullback of an aggressive nature down to the kind of 2000 level. However, they've now dropped that call and they've actually switched it, and now they're now saying US stocks are likely bottomed on policy support despite the likely steady stream of weak earnings reports. Q1 earnings season will not represent a major negative catalyst for equity market performance. Their year-end S&P 500 target remains 3000, is what they're saying. And on that note, then let's just get the S&P 500 up and let's have a look at what we're— what we've got. So let me just quickly switch my screens. So this is the S&P 500. I've just made a couple of markups here from where we were at the reopening of trade. We did kind of gap up but then came immediately under pressure, kind of tracking the oil move. If you were looking at markets on Sunday night, electronic trade, we did rally up into the open on Wall Street, but a little bit of nervousness perhaps going into the earnings season. But we've already taken back that move for the moment. But on a slightly longer picture, let's look at that Goldman Sachs call of what they're looking at for the year-end target of 3,000. So 3,000 puts us up basically around this kind of level here, pretty much where you've got that death cross, uh, just on my chart here at the moment in terms of these technical indicators. So, you know, not the most outrageous call, and I guess that's their year-end call, so there's probably going to be some ebb and flow of movement until we get to that point. Not forgetting as well that we have got a— you know, it's almost hard to remember— we've got a US election in November at the end of the year, only a few months' time. And obviously Trump's going to be doing his utmost to get the US stock market back up there, the economy back reopened in time for that event, because as we've seen before, he's kind of weaponized the stock market in order to validate the kind of effectiveness of his policies. So Definitely he'll be doing everything, everything he can at that point. But from Goldman's, their general idea here is that just given the fiscal and also the kind of unprecedented nature of doing whatever it takes from a monetary policy perspective, that has now eliminated the risk of any severe downside, and hence their, their call at the moment. Technically speaking, where we are at the moment, you can see around this 50% fib from the all-time high to the March 23rd low is causing a little bit of resistance for the moment. We've really failed to substantially get above that level, and that was that summer of 2019, uh, low. Also, the 2800 handle is around these levels, so that's kind of the obstacle at the moment to the upside. Whether or not we can break above there is going to be quite key, and if we did, the next move up would be up to around that 2855 type level. You can see from the Feb March areas of significance, and also from back on the 4th of October, you can see here, of 2019. So that's the kind of S&P story and what the chart looks like technically. I'm gonna switch over and have a quick look at another chart which is just above it, which is this one, which is gold. And I was gonna change gold to this one, which is a monthly chart. Now someone was asking me this on one of the YouTube comments last week about, you know, where could gold go from here. And one of the things I responded with was just keeping an eye technically on these much longer time frames, is looking at monthly candlesticks. And you can see just the incredible move that we've had over the course of April, even as stock markets have stabilized. One thing to be aware of is this, which is holdings in the SPDR Gold shares have surged to their highest since 2013. Uh, now the SPDR Gold shares is the largest such fund, uh, surging above 1,000 as you can see here. So getting above that high that we had in 2016, back to levels not seen for several years. So people still want exposure to gold at this point despite the general positives that I've been discussing with the, uh, the kind of flatlining, if you like, of the trajectory of some of the new virus cases, people are still kind of positioning themselves against the economic reality that's still yet to really hit home in full force. And so with gold, what I was looking at was that $1,722, which was up here, that Dec 12 kind of high. Now that we've got above there, you can see we've pushed a decent $25 already above that level. I wouldn't really expect much in the way of resistance now until we get up to around really the $1,800 handle. You can see here where we are at the moment at 55. That does coincide with the November, uh, kind of high on the monthly candlestick. But anything above that, then $1,800 is the next psychological target. And you can see what an important level that is. Um, if I just switch back to my charts here, you can see the November 11th, Feb— October 12th highs all reside at around that level. Kind of $1,795, $1,800 on the figure to be, to be watched. So yeah, going to be, it's going to be interesting. It's kind of a counterintuitive move in a way because you would think as equities continue to move higher, things start to stabilize generally in volatility, that you'd think gold would come back down under pressure. But I think it's more of a positioning play now for what is to come over the coming quarters when it comes to gold. In that respect, from a, from a fund manager's point of sense, or point of view, I should say. The other thing then to look at, of course, is oil. This is just a summary from a tweet I did a few days ago when the initial news was coming out. OPEC+, they eventually managed to get a deal together. It was looking very last minute. I'm not sure if you were tracking the news over the weekend, but the markets were going to reopen, were only a few hours to go They still hadn't got a deal done, and then they called a final emergency meeting where they managed to get this thing over the line. So OPEC+ are going to cut 9.7 million barrels per day for May-June, and Mexico to cut just 100,000. That's less than its pro-rated share. And how this is going to work is that the Americans— Trump was going to backstop the 300,000 shortfall to hit the 400k that Saudis wanted in order to get the deal over the line, which was of course quite interesting just given the fact, you know, the, the current relationship we've had ever since Trump came into the White House with Mexico. And here he is then backstopping some of their agreement, talking about he would, he would cover them basically for Mexico then to reconsider in 2 months' time. How this will work: the $9.7 million will be in effect for May-June, and then generally it scales down a little bit as we go further forward in time. Time, but this deal could well be in place for the next 2 years, is what they're saying, which is probably the, the right thing and shouldn't come as too much of a surprise when you think about the, uh, the kind of the huge impact that COVID-19 has had and this gradual recovery that we're going to see in the economy. It's not going to be an immediate fix here in terms of what they're doing. It's a much more longer play than that. There are talks of a 3.2 million barrel per day cut from G20 states outside OPEC Plus. So this was according to sources at the time, but this is the type of levels that we're looking at. That's a little bit of a disappointment. OPEC Plus originally had asked these other G20 states to contribute about 5, and they've only come through with a low, uh, 3 million. So I was quite bearish at the time when I was hearing this news. And when we were, uh, and when— well, first of all, let's look at the chart. When we were looking at this And I go back to— well, let's go back to this chart here. This was of course the end of last week, and wow, just what a, what a session it was. There was just headlines coming and price movement. We were seeing big swings of kind of 6, 7, 10% at some periods, and then we got to the point of Sunday night, and we actually opened up just short of $25, but we came under immediate selling pressure, and we pretty much sold off a straight 10% in the first kind of half an hour of trade or so before then gradually coming back. And we've just kind of eased all the way back down to those levels again. So the overall, I think, perception of this deal— and if we look at it maybe on this one, it's it makes a little bit more sense. So here we were— let me just remove my video feed so you can see what I'm looking at here. One second, see if that works. There you go. So here you can see a full annotation of what we're looking at in the crude market, and this was when we reopened. So if you look at it, where we are Given the fact that where we were open on Sunday night, we're still at least $2 down from where we were. We kind of consolidated at the moment. I think a lot of that is just waiting for us to come back in full market now, uh, back in after the Easter break. And it's going to be, I think, a little bit of a day where we'll start to see a bit of more definitive move. You can see we've kind of squeezed in the price here more recently, so a decision needs to be made at this point about where do we take this from here. And, you know, where we were up trading at, you know, only a couple of days ago, there were— remember when there were source comments talking about cuts as large as $20 million? You know, Trump was talking about $15 million when he was tweeting the week before. That was when we hit that high. So those highs on that type of talk, we're up at $28, $29, and here we are down at $22.50 this morning. It just goes to show, you know, the tracking of how this market is going to react is largely dependent upon how the scene is set, and that forms our expectations. And that's why I felt quite bearish at the time when Trump was coming out with these quite spectacular figures, because it's kind of doomed to fail in a way. And, and that's kind of how the markets have taken this. The reference bar was so high that it was almost always gonna have a negative kind of price reaction in that sense. But from here If we do start to break lower, obviously the, the levels I'd be keeping an eye on was that initial opening volatility low that we had on Sunday night at $22. And you can see here I've marked up with some ellipses some price points from March and April. $21.70 would be a target, and then that would open up the overall $20 handle again, which is obviously so significant being close to two-decade low that we briefly printed going back to the 30th of April, but has been a level that generally has held thus far, uh, and that's very close proximity. Obviously you're only around $2.50 away from that at the moment, and that does technically open up a firm break of there at any point in the future, uh, quite a trapdoor technically where there's not a great deal of support until we get much lower down into the kind of $17 or $16 handle, which would be the post-9/11 2001, uh, low at that point. Um, one of the main things as well why people are quite disappointed with this OPEC deal is, is really the demand destruction that this coronavirus is having on the global economy. Of course, you know, as airplanes, public transportation, and manufacturing activity— everything that requires and backstops the demand for this product— has obviously been significantly impacted by COVID-19. And if you look at everyone from research houses to funds to energy agencies in regards to the US Energy Department, uh, or the EIA, then the change in oil demand for April year to year is significantly more than what OPEC have proposed and what they're cutting. Now, although OPEC overall production, like what we're going to see in the States, should drop off its record levels by a fairly substantial margin, given the fact that now there's lower, um, price, it's not cost effective to run these facilities. And so therefore, naturally, production levels will decrease. That in step with the production cuts. The question is, is that enough to offset this, this huge demand shock that we're having? And that's what's keeping people generally quite bearish despite these actions. Another question I had over the weekend, and I would say is that, you know, don't, don't be fooled that OPEC can't change this deal. They can't get more aggressive. They can't go deeper, longer, harder. Absolutely, they will. If the price breaks $20 at any point in the days and weeks to come and the price starts to get a run down further, well then everyone's going to have to take action. And that includes probably the de facto kingpin now who's the dealmaker, which is Donald Trump. Because the price does start dropping to those types of levels just mentioned, then that's going to have massive implications then for the the energy sector in America, and then consequently the domino effect being more mass layoffs. Uh, that's going to be incredibly problematic for him to manage economically but also politically, so he won't want to let that happen. So I'd say this is an evolving situation, but it's going to be somewhat determined on the price. Whatever the price does, if it comes under pressure, they're going to have to do more at this point. Okay, a few other things to have a look at then. What do the banks think about the deal? Not just about my view. These are a couple of headline things that I saw yesterday. Citi saying reductions would do little to stem the price rout. GS, it's a historical agreement yet insufficient. And then UBS said the glut of crude will persist through this quarter as producers have already committed this month's shipments to their, their customers. So the general Main Street view is that, um, this is going to be quite a testing time at the moment to see how oil plays out. And on the balance, a lot of question marks on whether what they've done is enough at this point. Okay, shifting over to another thing to have a talk about. Earnings season is back here, and as per the normal routine, the banks really kick things off. So you're going to get JP Morgan and Wells Fargo ahead of the opening bell today. As I said earlier, got 40 S&P 500 companies, 4 of the Dow 30 components reporting this week. It starts to kind of ramp it up as we go through the next few weeks. Earnings for S&P 500 firms are expected to tumble 10.2% in the first quarter compared with the January 1st forecast of a 6.3% rise. So back at the beginning of the year, we're anticipating that the end of this quarter, you know, the, uh, the general earnings for S&P 500 companies would be a positive over 6%, and now it's been, um, kind of repriced, if you like, by, by Wall Street analysts to— it's going to be a negative over 10%, into double digits. So quite a huge turnaround that we've seen over the last couple of weeks in particular, and that's before the anticipation is the earnings are going to plummet Nearly 25% in the second quarter. And if you remember, that's when the US economy in itself is expected, according to Goldman's for example, it's going to be a negative Q2 print of around 35%. So that's when we'll be right in the midst of the worst economic kind of situation, the aftermath of this present lockdown that we're in. Couple things, my colleague Eddie, some of you might have seen him, he's done a couple of videos on the, on the channel before, but he's done a really great LinkedIn post where he's kind of done his essential guide to what to look out for. And namely, we're looking at banks. They generally are the sector that kicks off earnings. And there's a few things he's mentioned here which I'm just going to briefly recap, but feel free to read this more in full on his LinkedIn post. But he said larger provisions for credit losses, and that's one of the main things that he's looking out for in the, the bank's earnings numbers. And just generally in earnings in general, if you think about energy specifically, particularly these more smaller independent oil firms in America, they've been particularly squeezed by this low price point. And then retailers, of course, you know, if you think about retail in the US, well then generally speaking, you know, people, they're in lockdown, they're not able to get to the high street, so they're going to feel the impact, the brunt, as well as airliners. Expected then losses that occur when credit and debt becomes delinquent or is like to default or become unrecoverable. So if you think about banks, credit card, and consumer lending businesses, and they're expected to take, to take a great hit just on the back of this lockdown and the layoffs that are happening at the moment. The other, the other things here, maybe on a slightly more positive sign, is just generally the FICC and equity trading. So just generally the trading divisions of these big investment banks because of the high degree of volatility. Is that going to be good for business? The expectation is yes, but to what degree? And then on the other side, you know, if you think about an investment bank essentially split between the kind of global markets and the advisory capital market side, well, on the investment kind of classic banking side, probably suppressed capital market activity This huge uncertainty about where the economy is heading in future has meant that, you know, if you think about transactions, M&A deals, they basically just stopped. As you would, as you would imagine, it's the most prudent thing to do is not be cutting new deals when you don't know what the economic future holds, and only a few weeks, months away, never mind years away. So that's going to be a massive hit to their advisory fee kind of income. But on the flip side, if you think about things like restructuring divisions, I was talking to a contact of mine who works at Houlihan Lokey, which is one of the big kind of US boutique advisors in the States, and they were saying that their restructuring business is just unprecedented at the moment, and they're having— actually having to hire in new analysts to help with that demand. And that's likely to, to be quite a standout that we'll see with these banking firms. Then ECM, equity capital markets, firms frantically issuing secondary, secondary or follow-on offerings to raise equity and liquidity. And as we've seen with this morning, Exxon, they've raised $9.5 billion to load up on new cash while debt markets are still open to new deals at the moment. And so looking to safeguard themselves through kind of hardship that's to come over the coming months. But obviously this comes with investment bank advisory services in order to execute that kind of debt offering. And so they're going to make fees on the back of that. And then the final point probably to look out for is the lower net interest margins, you know, flatter yield curve, you know, rates back to historical low levels. And then the final thing I would say is about forward guidance. What is it then that people are looking at? You know, if you think about— if we go back to what Goldman's was saying, which was here. This is what Goldman's was saying yesterday about earnings season. They said stocks have probably bottomed on policy support despite the likely steady stream of weak earnings reports. They see Q1 earnings season will not represent a major catalyst for equity market performance. And I think I kind of agree with that. I mean, everyone knows that this earnings season is going to be pretty horrific, and they know that actually the next one's going to be even worse. So actually, I think one of the things for me that I'm looking at is, is the general forward guidance. What do they see the end of the year looking at? How significant is that impact going to be? We know now is bad, but what's the type of shape of recovery that they're anticipating from their profit performance point of view? That, and also be keeping an eye on dividend payments. We've seen in Europe, HSBC, UBS, Credit Suisse halting, canceling their dividends. Are we going to see that as well in the US to come? A few other things I thought was quite interesting, um, this is looking at the S&P 500 earnings revisions breadth. So this just goes to show the severity of how Wall Street analysts have had to severely re- or reevaluate and put out fresh estimates of a much more negative position of where we are now from just a few weeks ago. Pretty much the worst since then, the financial crisis of 2008. And then one of the other things I was looking at from an earnings perspective, uh, this morning was this was a chart here that basically is estimate dispersions. And what that means is how much the highest and lowest per share prediction varies on the average stock. And basically that soared to near record levels that we saw during the financial crisis. So what this is telling you then is there's been an immediate global shock event being coronavirus that's caused analysts to severely review and reanalyze and put out fresh, more negative estimates. But the variance of those estimates is the widest it's been since the financial crisis, meaning that, you know, it's quite quite a tough thing to try and quantify from an equity analyst point of view at this point in time. So again, given that point, I think that does soften the blow a little bit about then the kind of freedom that these numbers have to kind of beat and miss and for it not to really impact sentiment too much. So there's been a lot of hype about earnings is going to be reality hitting home. For me, I think it already has hit home. I don't think they're going to come as a great shock here. And the bar in my mind for corporate earnings season has been set particularly low, meaning then that I think an okay earnings season actually might be received, uh, in, in quite a positive way in that respect. Um, if you are interested, I've shown you this before, but this is the, the kind of Amplify Trading, uh, learning portal that we have, uh, for new traders. And as much as it is a portal It's a subscription monthly payment where you go through a kind of sequence of chapters that teach you the 101 about everything you need to know to analyze and trade financial markets. But what we've been doing is updating a rolling section where Sam North puts out his trade setups every day. But Eddie, the chap I just mentioned who did that LinkedIn post, he's done a great video as a guide to earnings season, which he's just uploaded to the portal. So exclusive to that, we don't put that sort of stuff out on YouTube, but all of these types of more snippet— we call it macro now— research that we do goes on to that portal. So do check that out. I'll put a link to it in the, in the video. But that is it. No, I think that's enough. Obviously for this week, as I said, going all the way back to the calendar, today is all about earnings season. Probably gonna just capture bit of an imagination because it's the first ones and that tends to act as a bellwether then for the rest of the sentiment and the season depending on how some of these first banks come out, namely JP Morgan and Wells Fargo. US retail sales Wednesday, Chinese data on Friday, and then finally I'll just say it one more time, don't forget to subscribe to the channel so I can see you tomorrow. But yeah, feel free to ask me any questions in the comments and I wish you a good day and a week ahead. Thanks very much guys.