US GDP May Decline More Than Any Time In History

Okay, very good morning to everyone. It is Monday the 23rd of March. I hope you have had the best weekend that you can being somewhat self-contained at home, but as you can see, back online as per normal and everything set up now kind of an office away from the office, if you like. So Amplify will be able to continue to do everything as per normal at this point. So the briefings will continue as well. So thank you to everyone with the comments on YouTube last week. We managed to hit now, I think we're at 10,200 subscribers now. So it's amazing. We've broken that 10K threshold. We've had over a million views now on these briefings. So I guess first and foremost, just a thank you from me and all the team everyone who puts effort into these broadcasts and the content. I hope it continues to be useful to you. At this point in time, obviously Sam is not here with me, but what he's going to do is he's going to publish some charts into Trading Live for our guys, our traders, but also he'll publish some of his kind of trade setups on, on his Twitter account. So @snorth19, do check that out. Otherwise, let's get straight into it. I'm going to focus on the, the news predominantly, and I'll leave those levels for Sam to share on social media. But having a quick look at the actual charts this morning, and what have we got on the agenda for the week? And again, another risk-off start to proceedings. US index futures off at the get-go, the reopening of trade on Globex, an immediate kind of limit down. In that respect. We have come off that level, but we still remain down multiple percentage points at the moment. You can see the Dow future in the center chart here is still down about 840 points at last check. The DAX did start actually more negative than where it is at the moment. It did see this center left chart here, a gap fill, as really the early birds in Europe were coming into the market, but since then has faded slightly and we're down about 400. So another weak start to equities. As you would imagine then, in that kind of, kind of classical move in the correlations, T-notes up over a full point already, getting close to retesting what was then the, the overnight electronic opening high here, just as we go into the European session. Gold, top right, it's off a little bit from where it was trading, but we're still hugging the pivot level at the moment. We're up about $7. So lower equities, higher gold, and fixed income. WTI crude is kind of flatlining for the moment. It did look a little hairy at the open this morning in terms of retesting the downside levels where we flirted close to obviously $20 at the end of last week. We got down to an overnight session low at $20.80 before we've had a bit of a bounce, but we'll have a look at oil again in a moment. Well, let's just get straight into it. So why this risk-off kind of tone to markets? Let me just switch over my screens and have a look at a few different things then. First of all, obviously, although we have a normal economic calendar this week, there are a few things definitely to keep an eye on. Overall market sentiment still derived from the updates that we're seeing in relation to the coronavirus. Global cases now, as you can see there in the top left, nearly at 340,000. Deaths now coming up to 15,000. What I did is I do publish a piece that I call the Macro Menu on a Sunday. It's— I share it on my Twitter and also I'll send this out to all the guys on Sunday. And this was a summary, and I'll quickly run through it, of generally the status of globally of where we're at in these major kind of popular centers, particularly in the Western world. But we're also going to talk about India this morning because that's also going to be a real potential hotspot, hotspot going forward in the coming weeks. Italy cases now around the 60,000 mark. The death toll now is almost double that of what's been seen in mainland China. In Italy, Italy have now stopped people moving from one municipality to another unless it's super urgent. They've also fined 11,000 people as part of their lockdown and not having permissions to be able to move around. They find 11,000 people on one day, on Saturday, over this weekend. And as we're going to have a look at in a second, could be a sign of things to come in the UK, uh, if the PM announces that in the next couple of hours. Uh, Spain— what I've got here are the kind of numbers in terms of total confirmed cases and then the actual death toll. So Spain's up to around the 30,000 mark, deaths around 2,000. They've— they're gonna extend their current lockdown for another fortnight. Germany is going to ban gatherings of more than 2 people. I'm not really sure how they're going to go about enforcing that, but that's what the headlines were suggesting on the likes of the FT and the BBC last night. France, the lockdown's to last another 2 weeks. Main cases, of course, in terms of the, the number of cases being confirmed is in, is in Paris. Pretty similar then to what we're seeing in America, where confirmed cases nationwide are 30,000, but it's all kind of concentrated in the state of New York and specifically New York City. Uh, New York City, uh, is reported to be 10 days away from seeing widespread supply shortages according to the mayor yesterday. Uh, New York as a hotspot is about 15 times more cases than the rest of United States of America, again, just given how, how populous that particular region is and the city. Of course, in the UK, we're going to discuss that in a second, so I'll get around to it. But a couple of, of things to be aware of here on this front, because we're going to broaden the net outside of Europe and America. And this is a country which hasn't really had too much mention, really, because cases have been actually pretty low in India. But India is the second largest populous country on the planet after, of course, China. Population-wise, India comes in at about 1.3 billion. So if you think about it, think about, you know, if you have been to India, what you know of it in terms of the kind of mass density of the populations in cities like Delhi or Mumbai, for example, and the types of food standards and hygiene, kind of similar-ish into what we're talking about with the original outbreak that we saw in Wuhan, for example, in the Hubei province in China. Now here, overnight, basically the Indian rupee fell 10%. A few other stats here. So the rupee is now trading its lowest level on record. Um, the virus, they're saying, according to the Indian Council for Medical Research, is basically saying that the virus could spread to as much as 10% of the Indian 1.3 billion population. You know, so the reason why this is all broken out and stocks have slumped overnight is because India too now is looking to stop millions of infections by going into lockdown. So that was India, definitely having some impact there. But in the UK, this came out yesterday. So the Prime Minister continuing to give lots of updates every single day, and the Prime Minister was threatening a UK lockdown as the public has ignored virus warnings. Now what that's referring to, I'm not sure where you're, where you're based, but if you're in the UK, I know for one, having just gone out to get some fresh air, when I mean where I live, there are parts where there's not too many people around. So the order at the moment is it's fine to go out, it's just not, it's not preferred that you go into any areas where you can be in close proximity to other people, and particularly mass gatherings. But what you saw on Twitter or if you read kind of local media is people in London were just going about their business as completely as normal. I saw shots of market stalls opening and kind of packed masses in East London. The National Trust, which if you're not familiar with the UK, if you're based in the States, basically is where we have kind of historical places of interest. And basically the National Trust, in order to help people who are confined at home, an ability to be able to go out and explore, you know, these sites. They basically opened them up for free, and what happened was there was a mass wave at the National Trust, and it was just packed at some of these sites. But obviously this goes completely against what the government are wanting, which is no kind of mass gatherings and so on. Reading through this then, a couple of things: I think it's not a matter of if but when, and I think it will be today. That the UK government is going to step up its kind of severity of its lockdown in a similar fashion to, say, Paris, for example. And what that means then is that probably the army troops which have been stationed in parts of London will be deployed in order to keep civil rest within the, within the city in regards to protecting things like hospitals, supermarkets, main infrastructure, so people can continue going about their business. Um, so yeah, that's the, the UK. They're going to fast-track emergency powers through Parliament, probably going to happen later today. The latest studies, uh, one I read this morning by, uh, medical professionals, but also in combination with UCL and Cambridge University, have basically said that given the way that this has played out so far, particularly again in the hotspot, hotspot that is London, they said that cases could reach about 35,000 to 70,000 excess deaths over the next year, to again just put some, some context into what we're talking about here. So this is a necessity at this point. Nearly every other country in mainland Europe has already taken these steps so far, so the PM is going to be under increasing pressure. One thing though that I thought was quite interesting from the data— this is a graphic here where you're looking at the the kind of trajectory of the number of confirmed cases that we've been seeing, or in this case, the death toll. And what you can see here is countries like Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, which obviously numbers were initially very high— with most of those, you can see the, the curve is fairly flat or fairly shallow. And a lot of that is a reflection, I guess, you know, having had lots of family and so on that live in the Far East myself, that their ability to have or deploy early and large-scale testing, tracing, helped authorities get the outbreak under control. The kind of response as well, just generally, if you go to places like Hong Kong, people are very much used to dealing with using kind of face masks and things like that when they've got a cold or they're ill. So the measures kicked in a lot earlier, and I think generally society is a lot more reactive because of it. It's a fairly regular part of life, whereas in mainland Europe it's very unusual, obviously, to go into these types of things as well, like a lockdown that now is being implemented. It's very difficult for citizens in these types of societies to react in that way. And the interesting thing here is France— well, would be 7 days ago now, that was when Macron outlined these really quite quite strict rules about the people who could move around and for what reason. By far the most strict across Europe. However, that has paid dividends because one of the things that I was looking at here is that Italy and Spain and the UK have had more deaths at this point, i.e., the number of days since the 10th death. They've had more deaths in Italy, Spain, and the UK than what China had at the same stage. Now, albeit I know people will say, well, we don't really believe the Chinese numbers, but just looking at those stats, France is particularly interesting because one of the things I was looking at when I was doing my research on Friday, uh, was that France is now substantially lower than its neighboring countries Italy and Spain. And I do think that that is a reflection of the fact that they've taken very proactive and high-level and very quick to, to put into place measures. And so this is why I think the UK is going to, going to follow suit. The main point though on this chart from a trading perspective, and I do think this is really important because I'm getting a lot of questions to me about when are we going to hit this ultimate kind of, uh, what's the key indicator where we're going to hit the bottom? Because a lot of people obviously now looking at value at these levels of, can I enter now equities in a good position to get long again for the inevitable kind of move back up towards all-time highs again? Or oil's quite suppressed in terms of historical prices, is now a good time to buy? Well, I'd say probably the key signal to look at is not maybe so much the kind of macroeconomic data, although that will be important. Actually, I think looking at the trajectory of these numbers, particularly in Italy and and Spain is going to be very important. The UK as well. They're the 3 that I'd be looking at. So every day today when we get these updated figures, you'd be looking to plot them then to see when are we nearing a peak. And I don't think we need to hit the peak, it just needs to be becoming more shallow. And so even before we get to that point of ultimate peak, I think the markets will already take that as a signal that perhaps then it's getting under control. But reality, this might not happen for another few weeks. And that means then that markets will continue to remain very sensitive and generally on the balance quite fragile in that— in the risk of further downside. A few other things to run through them. At the moment, if you remember, this time a week ago was when we had the first empirical evidence of the impact that the coronavirus had on the Chinese economy. If you remember, we had that fixed asset investment, retail sales, unemployment rate, industrial production, and they all basically just tanked. They— there was the first sign that we saw of what is going to be a significant impact on their economy. But at this point, we haven't really had too much in a similar vein for the rest of the world. But that's going to change because this week we have in Europe a number of things coming out. And well, let's jump to here first and then we'll go back to that other chart. So this is the calendar of kind of European events for the week. So today you've got euro area consumer confidence, probably the most important in terms of this type of data. You've got the preliminary PMI, the Purchaser Managers' Index. So those numbers are coming out for Germany, France, the euro area. These are the flash readings. Then you also get the UK flash PMI and factory orders as well. Then, then confidence figures, both business and consumer, coming out across mainland Europe from Wednesday through Friday. So this is going to be the first time when we get to see just generally what is the sentiment, what is the impact that this is having at this point in time. We know it's bad. The question is how bad at this point, and we're going to look at a few different things. For one, this is looking at what analysts are having to do now, and economists, is reshape their expectations about the kind of future. And this is looking at, um, really two things: the euro area composite PMI, so the average for the eurozone, is that this is going to dip below 40. Now if you remember, Germany was the worst, and Germany was in a real difficult state going into before the virus hit. Remember, it was deeply in contraction in its manufacturing activity, in its PMI readings. This being kind of a triple threat of tariffs coming from the US and its protectionist policies. You've got kind of the domestic political uncertainties with the CDU and CSU and Angela Merkel, and you've got Brexit, something which obviously is completely forgotten at the moment. But these three things already put Germany on the back foot. Now you're going to have the, the virus take impact as well. So remember, 50 in the PMIs is key for being in expansion or contraction territory as far as that reading is concerned, as a diffusion index. And so here you're looking at the first time we're going to go into contraction since really 2012, in the depths of the sovereign crisis. And that's not only going to go negative, it's going to go to the pretty much the worst numbers that we've seen since the severity of the global financial crisis. Um, with that then, let's move over to the US, because in the US there's been some pretty interesting, uh, comments out of various big banks. And I'm going to start with Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley sees US economy plunging 30% in Q2. Now I must stress, this is probably the most bearish of what I've seen. JP Morgan or Bank of America are looking for -12%, JP Morgan looking for -14%. GS are looking for -24%. MS are out there now looking for a deep, deep US recession. They also see unemployment averaging 12.8% in the second quarter as well. With that being said then, let's look at Goldman Sachs. They're looking for 24% given the coronavirus pandemic, which would be 2.5 times bigger than any decline in history if that was to materialize. Now, to look at that graphically, this is what Goldman's released, um, and they're expecting a near 10% peak hit to the level of GDP in April that fades only gradually. And I think this is quite an important thing here, um, because people were looking at, you know, if you look at this chart, forget the, the data, look at the shape of the bars here. You've got an immediate downtick And then you've got this quite drawn-out, uh, kind of center to right curve. Now remember what a lot of people were saying only about 3 or 4 weeks ago is we were going to have this V-shaped recovery. Well, if you look at what we've got here, we've definitely got the first forming of the V, but it's not really a V, it's more like a, a sharp move down and then a very gradual— and if you actually look here, it's going to take many, many months before we get somewhere back to normality. Uh, and if GDP does dip that aggressive, then you're looking at basically a period of perhaps 12-18 months before we really start to get back to where we were again. And so that's probably a reflection though of really, when you do read the data and the medical kind of research, that when this virus is probably going to be much more at the point of very contained, at that point where we've seen the way over the worst of it, but this is going to be a way slower probably recovery than some people might have imagined before. From a, from a US point of view then, with the GDPs, as I said, the Q2 forecast, I mean, JP Morgan looking at -14%. I mean, this is just to put it as in context. This goes back on the chart on the index from left to right from the 1950s all the way up to where we are in 2020. So you can see the worst GDP print we had in the global financial crisis of 2008-9, we got down to a GDP of about -9%. If you go back to that, then you go back to the early '80s, we had about a similar print. And if you go back to the late '50s, we actually saw a -10%. So if you look, you know, this really is, uh, one of the most depressed periods potentially of US growth in the history of the country, for sure. if not, as the numbers were saying, it's a record. In fact, 2.5 times bigger than the biggest decline in history, a bit of context. So here, now this is one piece of data a lot of people have been talking about. Every Thursday we get the initial jobless claims, continuing claims, the initial unemployment claims. This is GS Goldman Sachs projection for— it says next week, but this is now this week. And this really is quite incredible. They're expecting, um, initial jobless claims could spike to a record 2.25 million. Uh, that forecast would mark an 8-fold increase and more than triple the record set in 1982 if that were to happen. This is as companies in America have already started huge layoffs to get ahead of then the cost pressures they're going to deal with the severe economic downturn that we've just been discussing. With a lot of this though, I mean, this is being banded about as, as quite, you know, quite a scary figure, but I do think quite a lot of this has been priced in now. I mean, Goldman's released this note on Friday, we've had the gap down. I mean, if the number, you know, the bar's been set now, the number's out there, people are expecting a 2.25 million jobless print, which is, you know, we normally average about 200K on an average basis. So it's a monster number, but at the end of the day, we're now expecting that to some degree. So I'm not sure it's going to be this massive fanfare that people are expecting, other than it's going to be a dominant headline for news agencies to run. Its market implications, I think, don't really change the narrative a great deal. You know, now we're expecting these, these massive impact to growth. Obviously unemployment's gonna, gonna spike higher, and so I don't think it's going to be the most surprising thing if that does materialize, albeit it will be historic if that does turn out to be the case. This was another thing I wanted to mention. What are the Fed saying? And generally the Fed voters have been quite quiet, but we have heard from James Bullard. He is a non-voting member in 2020, but he does tend to be quite vocal So perhaps a bit of an insight as to what they're thinking. However, he is the most kind of, I would say, outlandish in his views. He really doesn't hold back. He really says what's on his mind, and he does tend to be a bit outlying in his views. If there was a center ground, more kind of akin to Powell's view on things, Bullard's probably the most furthest removed, I would say. And the fact that he's not a voter tends to accentuate then what he tends to to say. But to give you a bit of an update, he's suggesting that US unemployment could hit 30% in Q2 and that GDP could fall 50%. So he's just taking it, what we've discussed, and just ratcheting up a few notches. Yeah, 50% GDP hit, he's— he reckons. Now I think he's way too bearish. Personally, but we need to monitor the developments. You know, I'd say between Italy, Spain, the UK, and America, it's, it's really key. And actually, if we jump back, I didn't even really mention the States too much on the numbers front. America now has over 30,000 confirmed cases, and I don't know if you read it, but again, more stringent measures are being looked at to be put into place in America to contain this virus. A lot of talk as well, and this is kind of one thing that I've been tweeting about quite a lot, is although we've seen a lot of people talking about the muscle memory of governments and central banks kicking in from the global financial crisis, so, you know, one thing that's very different from when I was an analyst when that was happening was that everything was kind of new in the policies they were unveiling, you know, zero interest rate policy, quantitative easing. These were all new packages which now you just need to basically turn the printer back on, move the rate handle back to zero. It's not, it's not unusual anymore. So they've been quick to respond. Governments have been quicker to put out their fiscal promises like we saw large-scale in the UK from the Chancellor last week. America now has gone from one to talks of $2 trillion stimulus package. And it's these sorts of things that I think will continue to go up and up and up in terms of these numbers. I saw a really good graphic of Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor in the UK, from when he released the budget and the amount he's put towards stimulating the economy through the coronavirus has basically gone like, like this to like that to like that to like that. And I would expect that number to probably get even bigger, and the same case in America, as the, the situation gets much worse. But yeah, Bullard, one interesting thing he did say was And this is what I'm more interested when I, when I look at someone like his comments is, well, what are these other options that the Fed can do? We know they've restarted their QE program for $700 billion. We know rates are back to basically zero. Where else can they maneuver their policy if they needed to, to get more response in markets? And he said commercial paper funding should support, should provide support for corporations trying to roll over short-term debt. And he also said the Fed could look at buying other corporate debt as well. So I guess it's about using some of the existing facilities, tweaking them in, in certain ways, particularly corporations. I think that's quite key in order to support what could then lead— or you could try to mitigate this mass unemployment situation by again giving companies short-term facilities to have liquidity and to have access to credit. but then also with the actual central bank in itself buying corporate bonds in order to support them as well could be another quite effective way of doing that. The final thing I'm going to mention is New Zealand. They've turned to quantitative easing. You've probably read this now. They're going to buy up to 17 billion Kiwi dollars, about 17 billion US dollars would that translate to, of government bonds in the secondary market over the next 12 months. And again, the reiteration of whatever it takes from their, from their governor. Um, final thing I want to have a look at, let's just quickly switch over to the charts. I'm just going to have a quick look at oil and then the S&P and then I'll wrap things up. But this is WTI crude and you can see we've had a bit of a gap lower at the initial reopening of trade in the overnight session. That was the initial dip when US equity futures got halted limit down, and then we had close to a retest down at that 20 level which we printed back on the 18th at the end of last week. We have recovered a little bit and we started to consolidate around that kind of area here, which is the 2239. We briefly tested that before Europe came in this morning. But looking on a much bigger picture, this was a graphic that I shared in my kind of look ahead for the for the week in the macro menu. And, you know, one of the things that we had last week was— well, really, if I put a bigger rectangle— is this move here. And WTI crude, I know this looks quite small, but this is one of the biggest rallies we've had in a single day in the history of crude futures. And that came, if you remember, after President Trump was talking about intervening in the Russian-Saudi situation. It was also talking about buying a large amount of crude oil to help to stockpile in the SPR, and all of that led to then a big surge in prices after we were at very depressed levels. However, you know, when I delivered the briefing on Friday, I was talking about the idea— and I think the point here still remains— is that as much as the US might look to try to intervene, I really don't think, and I have not read anything over the weekend to changed my mind that the biggest core problem here for prices is the fallout between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Until those two can come to some kind of agreement and have some deal in order to coordinate a cut to global supply, I still remain bearish on crude oil prices. You know, the situation ultimately with the coronavirus is going to get worse in terms of numbers, therefore economically more impactful. So that's going to hamper demand still further to what I think has been priced at this point. And then you overlay that with this ongoing battle for market share by flooding the market. I think it's a perfect cocktail for prices to move south. And we're holding up at the moment, and you can see why we're holding up. I mean, if you go, you know, that was that, that level of where we, we hit the low yesterday. We've come all the way back up to there. I'm looking at a monthly candlesticks now to try and bring into context a little bit of recent moves. So you can see here the global financial crisis. I mean, wow, what a move that was. It went from like north of $140 down to basically $30. Then we had the OPEC attempt to try and kill the US shale industry kicking off in November 2014 when they looked to flood the market, and the fears of a Chinese hard landing. That was this big episode. And then we've had the coronavirus pandemic, which is where we are at the moment. Now here we briefly broke below it. We got to around that $20 handle before, but the number I've been looking at is $16.70, which would bring in the initial aftermath in the week post the 9/11 attacks that we had in 2000, 2001. That's that low there in that rectangle. Anything below there, you know, it sounds crazy, but you start talking about numbers like $10.35 $25, which would have been the OPEC kind of crisis in the late '90s type price level. I think, you know, let's leave that for the moment. The first target here, I think, that people will be looking at on the longer higher time frame will be $16.70. I do think that $20 is going to give way at some point in the coming days or weeks. From an S&P 500 perspective, as I said, Sam's going to share some of his charts the chat and online on, on Twitter and so on. But this was looking at the S&P on a much longer time frame. Um, I know it's a bit small to look at, but I wanted to really encapsulate some of the price activity going back to 2013-14 because this area of consolidation now is really what we've got to be watching for key levels on the downside. And as you can see, you've got A gap down again in the overnight session that's brought us back in towards this kind of range here, which was the peak of price activity, um, just before the US election. Then Trump obviously had the dip and then the rally came back to around that same level in November of '16. Before then, kind of, uh, the Trump stimulus, Trumpflation, kind of kicked in. But then beyond that point you start looking at that kind of band of price movement. We've obviously got that low on the night of the US election, uh, that would be the most lowest bound at 2028.5 in the S&P. So again, these would be levels really to watch through the week as a whole, and then kind of scaling down using that price movement from 2016 and ultimately further down into 2016, '15 would be key levels. So, you know, as crazy as it sounds when you start talking about these levels, you know, this is the way markets have been moving. And to where we are from the record all-time high only a few weeks ago, we're still down 35%. Uh, if we were to get down to 2,000, that would be about 41-42%. If we got down to that, um, that low seen in beginning of 2016, that would be close to 50% reversal from that high. And yeah, I still think there's some downside to come in US equities. I guess it depends on how far. Probably the area where I'd feel most comfortable really is around that 2000, that 2028, which was that US election dip low. And that 2000 psychological level I think is not off the table at all at this point, given that these cases are still rising at the moment and measures are still to really kick in at a more stronger level on the lockdown in places like America and the UK. Um, quick look at the calendar. So back, back to, uh, this is that macro menu where I talk about my views and some of the things we discussed here. But this is the— includes a calendar. So as I said, um, it's going to be interesting. You get the preliminary PMIs coming out of the eurozone first thing tomorrow morning, so be be aware of that. You also get the US numbers coming out that afternoon as well. You do still have a Bank of England rate decision, as far as I'm aware, it's still scheduled for Thursday. They've already obviously made their move restarting QE rates down to 0.1, but I guess this is more of an update on what is their latest thinking at this point in time. Not expecting too much from that. They've really showed their hand and their commitment now to do whatever it takes Um, and then you've got industrial profits perhaps on Friday from, from China could be quite interesting. But overall, just check that out when you get a second. And then the final thing I wanted to mention was if you scroll up to the top, and I'll put a link to this, there's a picture of me and Sam, um, in, in the old days in the office, I would say. But he will be joining me because we will be doing this. So we're going to use Zoom. I'm sure some of you have used Zoom video technology before, but at 1 PM London time this afternoon, it's an open invitation. So whether you're a trader, whether you're a student, it's going to be a couple of hours where I'm going to give you a rundown ahead of the, the open of US trade for stocks. And then basically it's going to include me, the head of trading, Piers Curran. He's going to talk a little bit about what about how he traded through 2008-2009. Is it similar? Is it different? If so, how? So he's going to do a bit of a talk on that. Will DeLucy, who's our managing director, is going to talk about trading psychology and mindset. Sam's going to talk about technical analysis and how he sets up his trades each day from an intraday perspective. And then Eddie, uh, Donmez, who's one of my colleagues, he's going to talk a little bit more about individual equity sectors, and how do you position yourselves from a slightly longer time frame if you're looking at portfolio managing or having a basket of kind of single stock picks and so on. So it's going to be a good session. We're all involved and everyone's free to join. So here's a registration link. I will be sharing that and I'll put it in the, um, the video description. So make sure you have to register your details and then you'll be given all of the relevant information. But hopefully I'll see you online a bit later on for that. So that is it. As I said, no real charts for me from a technical perspective. They will get shared shortly by Sam. But I wish you a good week ahead. I hope that you remain safe and sound. The same to you, your friends and family and colleagues. And then we'll be here every morning as per normal. Any questions, just leave a comment, let me know. Alright guys, have a good day, I'll see you later. Thanks very much.