US Non-Farm Payrolls LIVE

Hey, we, uh, we're all live now, Sam.

All live and kicking, ready to go.

Great, great. All right, well, um, yeah, I know that it takes a little while for everyone to filter in from YouTube, so while that happens, I'll just quickly introduce a couple of people from the team. So usual kind of routine, I'll, I'll host the session, uh, so for anyone who's new to joining us I'm a director at the firm Amplify Trading. I'm also the head of market analysis, so hopefully I can give a little bit of insight as towards what's happened with the Trump news. Obviously, some of you might have caught the briefing I did in the morning. If there's any follow-up questions, please just fire away. But I've been joined by 3 of our kind of senior traders. So we've got Sam North. Say hello, Sam.

Hey guys, yeah, great to be here. Looking forward to the session. Thanks for having me on.

Cool, and we got Alex Clark, who's one of the traders and also very much involved with mentoring of our guys.

Hey everyone, it's nice to meet you. Happy Friday.

Yeah, it's been a heck of a Friday so far. And then we've got our man in Dublin, Tim Duggan. How's it going, Tim?

Really good, really good, Anthony.

Is there a number on that hat? I can't quite see it.

It says 10,000 or 30,000, I'm not sure. I'm not sure at the moment.

Well, it's, uh, it's definitely, uh, been a really super interesting, uh, 3 days really. I know I've been sharing a chart of the S&P a number of times, uh, in our chat room and via social media, and certainly there's quite a lot of talking points there. So, uh, just very quickly, um, if you— I don't know where you've been if you've not caught the news yet, But obviously, Trump coming out overnight and stating that he has tested positive for COVID caused quite a decent reaction initially when Europe came into the market. So just quickly to recap the charts that I'm sharing here, I've got euro-dollar. These are all futures products. Euro-dollar cable, gold on the top. In the middle, DAX, NASDAQ, S&P 500 future. And I've got the German Bund, WTI crude futures. And then the US 10-year down in the bottom right. So as you can see here, equity index futures did take a decided turn lower as Europe came in. Don't forget there were large portions of the Asia-Pacific region closed for market holidays, particularly China, as they're closed for Golden Week at the moment. So as soon as that kind of tweet came out, there's a bit of time and then things started to kind of really build up. But look, rather than me talk any further on that point, I know, um, Tim and Alex, some of the guys have been quite active this morning, so perhaps one of you want to jump on and talk about the type of trades that the guys have been looking at. Sure.

Uh, Alex, do you— or I'll go. Yeah, I'll go for this. Um, just let me share a screen. We have the S&P. So we got really, uh, really what I would like to call surgical entries here. If we can see my screen here on the S&P, you know, we pushed down here really early doors, 5:45 AM, albeit the exchange open came in pretty much, well, midnight here on the left of my screen. So really where my mouse is now is the exchange open, taking a little bit of a bid, and you can kind of probably see where, you the news hit the wires here, 5:45. Now I have this zone, you know, I did a little bit of analysis on this earlier this morning with some people in the room. Just gonna go out to a 240-minute chart here. You're probably gonna see this in a bigger perspective which will give this trade a bit better context. So I'm loading tick data on my chart so it takes just a little bit more to load, albeit I have 32 gigs of RAM on this system, so it's very hard to get it to be faster. But as you can see, on a 240-minute here, you can see all my messing around of scalps here. But if we go out to this larger timeframe perspective, you know, I just saw a bit of an inflection point here where the buyers picked it up and we went for the highs. Albeit, we've now come back down into this area. And really, you know, to me it looked like there was a lot of decision-making to be done here. So I took this low from, I think this is the 11th of, sorry, August here, and as an inflection point as well. And you can see kind of here that this zone has been quite important. So I just put it on, right? And we had the benefit of this downtrend from the highs. And so I put this on. Then I also saw that there was an inflection area, sort of a possible consolidation here. The sellers easily could have taken this down from this area, but they didn't. So using a supply and demand theory, just seeing where that buying came in. If I kind of, you know, bring this off here, you can kind of see all this buying just inflecting up here. So I wanted to see, I wanted to track, well, what's going to happen there? If we get back down there, right? And so sure enough, look at what happened here. Buyers took it up again, okay? So we have an area of selling, an area of buying. So if I now go back to my 15-minute chart, right, we saw a pennant forming this morning on this, um, below this area where the sellers really took control before. I think somebody in the room— who was it? Was it Charlie? Somebody took this exact trade. Yeah, Charlie took this exact trade after we'd had a quick session on it. Great stuff. And let's zoom in on the activity here. So we broke down below, we pulled back, that's when I took a couple of contracts here. I actually was hedged in this position and then I took the hedge off as it pulled back to this point. I did not re-enter. And then took some off here on the lows of that August 10th. And really, I'm playing for a little bit more downside here, albeit I'm not going to be holding any shorts should we get bid above here. So that's really what I've been up to, you know, holding a little bit short on euro as well. But, you know, that's kind of remaining to be seen. I'm probably going to get out of that now pretty shortly. So back to you guys.

Yeah, thank you very much. Tim. Alex, is there anything you've been looking at you'd like to talk about?

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Cheers, Tim. Thanks, Ant. Um, yeah, I was looking at— I'm gonna share my screen— I was looking at FX, of course, and the reaction from the Trump news in FX was actually quite limited. Looking at cable here, and yesterday we had that crazy day where we had the negative Brexit headlines, positive Brexit headlines, followed by negative Brexit headlines, and now Johnson's going to meet von der Leyen tomorrow. Um, I think cable's in a bit of a range here. I think the euro is the same as well, but we had that really nice bounce off the 27 handle back up towards the 30 mark. And this high here from 28th of September has been the resistance level in play the last few days. Price been unable to close above that level for the last few days, and so a bit of a range, price moving sideways, higher lows And before I get involved, I just want to see— you can see the range here, and I just want to see this, which way this range resolves. And it will resolve. And but rather than get caught in all of these, these sort of sharp movements here, I want to wait for Johnson. I want to wait to see what happens at the end of that and the non-farm payrolls. And hopefully that can force us out of this direction. I was talking to Sam yesterday in the office. We think that on the upside, this 130, if we can break up above here, more bullish above that 28th September high, be buying dips all the way back up towards 133, 134, potentially even 135. And then if we break on the downside, obviously we've got this 26.5 down near the September low, be looking for that. But I always have sort of like bullish bias, bearish bias, and neutral bias. So I'm in neutral bias mode at the moment, and I won't be putting on any trades until I get some sort of— until the market tips me off in what direction we're going to go. So I'm just sitting and watching until next week.

Okay, great.

Alex, thank you. Thank you, Tim. Sam, what's your take? What are you looking at?

Yeah, thanks guys. Always interesting to get the, you know, other people's views. And me and Alex actually were saying yesterday, he's he's patiently sort of waiting for the trigger for a short. And I like the long above 130. Um, you know, for me, that, uh, that trade only comes in if we get above that 130. At the moment, it's not— it's holding very, very strong resistance. Uh, equities, um, for, for medium-term plays, it's going to be headline-driven. Obviously, non-farm payrolls coming out shortly will be one of the reasons, but also developments over the weekend. You know, Anthony, like you were saying, The, the news over the weekend will be interesting to keep an eye on, uh, the IG, Ken Dow, and so on, to see if that is going to get higher or lower. And yeah, that will potentially be the reason for that. I was actually just thinking not long ago, I said to myself, if, if I had thought a couple of days ago what a Trump gets COVID headline would do to the markets, I would, I would have probably thought more just you know, 1.5% down or 1.7% down. So yeah, it's, um, I guess the next step for me is to see how serious he is. We know Boris obviously went into intensive care and was in a bad way. You know, is Trump just got it but asymptomatic, or is he actually in a bit of bother? Um, you know, there's obviously been a lot of rumors already flying down, fake news, it's political play. This now makes Biden silent for 2 weeks. I'm fascinated by the weekend and what comes from it. So medium-term plays, I'm on my hands right now. But is the—

I've just seen a bit of a costume change happening here. I feel like me and Sam need like Biden hats here, just to rebalance the force a little bit. Because, uh, there is no political bias here on the channel, of course. But, um, well, look, let me, um, just run through quickly a couple of different things because obviously we do have non-farm payrolls coming out. Um, I guess from my perspective, I would say there's a little bit of kind of sting taken out of this release just given the context of what's, what's going on right now. Um, so I would take that into consideration However, I'm sure you guys will, will kind of have seen this before yourselves where non-farm payrolls can often be something which traders wait for, and then once it's out of the way, regardless of whether, you know, it's a market or not, it's more about just getting it out the way and then the market can show its hand and whether we start to put in a bit of a bounce and recovery or see another run lower when we go through the open on Wall Street. It'll be quite interesting. It almost feels a little bit like that because for me, even if this payroll report is marginally good or bad, I don't think it definitely doesn't make a difference from the Fed's point of view, I don't think. So I just wonder whether there's a much bigger narrative on the intraday sentiment-wise, which is the Trump issue. Once payrolls is gone, I'd be just quite interested to see if that proves to be as what might largely be the case, the non-event. Do we then start to see a bit more of a kind of direction, show its hand. But from payrolls perspective first, I mean, the normal kind of buildup to payrolls we see, as I'm sharing on my screen at the moment, the kind of job-related indicators that come out as the prelude then to the labor report, and generally have been a little bit on the positive side. I guess if you're taking the PMIs, ISM manufacturing, the employment subindex, very close to moving back into positive territory. The employment subindex in the service sector jumped 5 points, albeit it's still sub-50 in contraction at the moment. University of Michigan, so consumer confidence is now at a post-pandemic high. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index broke 100 for the first time since really the onset of, as well, recovery of the COVID-19 situation. ADP beat expectations. The only things that have been a little bit more questionable have been on the jobless side of things. But what that leads us up for then is expectation for a consensus today of 850. As always the case with payrolls, kind of rule 101 is not looking to be super aggressive to hit market on the back of the very first kind of announcement of the figure you hear. So for anyone new to trading payrolls, obviously it's a multifaceted release. There's a number of metrics to look out for. It's not just a one-and-done headline figure. And with payrolls, and really with any news-driven event, you always have to put it in context. Context being what else is happening in the market at that point in time. So if we do get a breaking headline, let's say, and it's about Trump and maybe his health has turned for the worse, well then payrolls doesn't really matter at that point, and everyone will focus on that. So context is super key. Range for the headline: -100,000. Now, -100,000 would be symbolic, I would call it, and the reason for that is that we've printed a positive growth figure in the headline change in non-farm for 4 consecutive months now. Expectation is, and given the buildup of this data that we have seen on the employment indicators, for the reference period, which is payrolls, this number should be a positive. If it isn't, then obviously that would be a slight surprise in that sense. But I think a negative 100,000 might be a bit of a catalyst. But again, I guess for me it's more about if we get a very bad jobs report, stimulus talks in Capitol Hill completely break down, the Democrats, Republicans just walk away, they go on a break till post post-election, then that's a good cocktail, I would say, for a lot of negative forces to build. And perhaps then that's just a cue where the event in itself acts as a new trigger for just a continuation of the trend we've seen this morning in Europe, which is another push on the downside. So yeah, that's my overall take. But I guess from you guys, and perhaps Sam, um, I know you're, you're good at making it really clear for, for the people following. So talk about a few scenarios then. If we get a downside push in US equities on the back of payrolls, what kind of levels would you look at? I know the DAX is kind of flirting with its S2 at the minute. The S&P's close proximity still this morning to, to the low we had on Wednesday. And then gold's been a decent move higher this morning. So what would be the trades that you would look at? Anything looking more favorable?

Yeah, thank you. And let me, uh, let me just share my screen and bring in the, the charts that I'm having a look at. You know, I still got the, the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P on those, the longer time frames. And like I said before, the 9th of September low, which, you know, it's Wednesday's low in the Dow as well. For me, if, you know, we were to get a real poor number and get the low there, I think we, we push down quite quickly. So That's one that I'm keeping an eye on. Same sort of zone really in the, the NASDAQ, being the 21-day and 50-day moving average. And like I said, the 9th of September low, which is also Wednesday's low in the S&P. I think below there and it can unravel quite quickly. So for those looking for further downside, I think, you know, that bad number is something you would, you know, look to be seeing there and a continuation, uh, below, uh, where it comes in around sort of 3291. Interestingly, uh, you see the lows just in recent times have got higher and the highs have got lower. Decision time coming. Is NFP really going to be that groundbreaking? Probably not. But from a technical point of view, I don't think too many people would want to stay short if price was, you know, to head up towards this direction. And then you're looking towards those lows that gave way in early trade on the headline, of course. But will still be of interest on any sort of retest to the upside. And then if that was to keep climbing through, then you, you know, this trend line here, pretty well respected. So that's going to be a key decision point. Should we get up there, 3352s, I'm all over that as an area to keep an eye on. And to the downside, as mentioned, we break through those and 3290, then I think that could be, you know, further push lower. And it's not completely out the question to say, along with a a negative cash open, a further poor headline, that we end closer to towards that 3,200. So yeah, it's going to be certainly interesting. I think gold obviously had a nice start today, had a little pullback, and hasn't done too much yet. Maybe we're just waiting for that next headline, that next catalyst. Bit range-bound over the last couple hours. So yeah, I mean, you know, yeah, if it was to be a, uh, a poor number, dollar weakness, and also a tiny bit more risk-off, then gold, you're really looking to push to the upside. And that would really mark as well a solid week for gold, where last week we obviously came under some pressure, hit such a key low. Remember I did that tweet talking about, uh, is it an opportunity to buy? Most people actually did respond to say yes. But if it finishes above, uh, this sort of 1918 level, we'll look at that as a support point. That gives way for— and we move lower, we then push back above it well, different story. And I think gold would then start to push up, and it's got a similar trend line from those highs which would also come into play. So those are the main markets I'm, I'm looking at. Uh, Alex or Tim, for the currency pairs, have you got, have you got certain areas that you're, you're eyeing up?

Yeah, I do. Yeah, with the euro dollar, just to jump in there quickly, um, yeah, euro dollar, as I was talking about in the chat, the US daily rundown, stuck in this, in this range here on the daily. Oh, I just need to share my screen. Yeah, stuck in between this range on the daily time frame between that 1.17 handle from back in August there and these resistance points here at 17.5. You see price here on a daily time frame stuck in between this range. And so much like cable, uh, neutral bias at the moment. And if price breaks on the upside, be more bullish with conviction of course. And a move on the downside through this level here would be more bearish. And I think the next sort of short-term trend will form once we break out this range on the upside or downside. If we break on the upside, then I'd be looking to buy dips back up towards that 19 handle, potentially even 120. And if we break on the downside, I'll be selling rallies down towards that September low around the 16 mark, and then even lower, potentially down towards 115. And that'd be my plan for the euro dollar.

Tim?

Yeah, uh, let me get a Cable chart up here. Um, I actually got completely smacked out of this, um, earlier on today. Uh, Cable. So I'm actually looking at this sort of structure on Cable here in the 240-minute. Um, I was trying to short this little, little flush up here earlier on, but, um, it just wicked me out. So just too much. So that's kind of indicative here actually that we're holding in the midline here and, and kind of looking for the breakouts above. Um, where are we going to? Well, sort of, you know, 30 or 30 spot 35 here. I'm not a huge cable trader, but I have been taking a few of late. The volatility on it has been absolutely tremendous. Um, you know, I think I'm really, you know, I'm an oil guy a bit of euro because it's so correlated. On the euro, I've actually gotten out of my shorts. I think this— actually, it's hard for me to know right now whether we're looking at huge dollar strength or weakness over this number. So I don't want to be a gambler, I want to go with what is happening here. So I'm going to sit on my hands and see what the dollar wants to do.

You know, well, uh, actually, Tim, I had a few people before we came on live asking me about oil, so I'm just sharing an oil chart here, and this can lead you in then to— I know this is predominantly the product that you, you like to, to focus on. So here I'm just looking at really the price action over the last month, and we've had quite a significant breakdown in price since September. We put in that recovery mid-Sept, and then we've broken down more recently. And I was looking then— this is a 90-minute candlestick, but then on a slightly longer time frame, I just thought it was quite an interesting level, um, with the colored rectangle here going back to that kind of high on that initial gap down. We've had that retest that helped support price beginning of SEP, and we're not too far from there, about just over a buck. Um, just wanted to get your thoughts really about, um, where you, where you think directionally for the moment. And how solid do you think this area is as a key point of support? But if broken, then potential downside.

Yeah, brilliant. Thanks, Anthony. Actually, that cues me up quite well because I have pretty much that zone on here which I've been tracking. For me, it's kind of $35,000-$47,000, give or take a thicker too here, maybe 65s. Actually, no, I'd probably take it down to be more like there because of the inflection we got here. And now these, this level kind of became that supportive area for the kind of late, sorry, really, well, yeah, late July. Sorry, where are we here? Yeah, so this is late July. Then August, early September. So here we go. So really, this is the inflection we got for September. And actually, you know, I wouldn't expect this to be re— you know, if this was such a great buying opportunity in oil, I wouldn't expect us to be retesting it so, so early now, to be honest. But that makes perfect macro sense to me. COVID is— I think this is sort of the real second wave finally. You know, I think we had a couple of false starts to what was the second wave. I think it was more like 1.0, then we have 1.1, then 1.5, and now I think we're really getting into the longer tail, 2.0, across Europe, across the States. But, you know, we have hospitalization rates are still low, albeit infection confirmations are high. But effectively, when you think about trading oil, you got to think, well, you know, are people jumping on planes or not? Essentially, you know, John Kemp from Reuters has been tracking this so well. And essentially, until people start jumping back on planes, we're not going to see huge drawdowns on the distillates. So that's what we've been looking for with the DOE. you know, draws down, drawdowns on these distillates. That's why when we had DOE, we did take a bit of a bid on the last DOE, you know, before finally failing. And I think that was in this area here. Yeah, Wednesday. So, you know, on Wednesday we came in 7 AM, 11 here, and then off the data, you know, we got the bid here. It was a drawdown on distillates. That's what a lot of oil traders were looking for, but we're going to need continual drawdowns. You know, we're going to need about 4 more of these, um, where we have, you know, -3, -7s, um, and eat into those stocks. And then we can really be supported above this area properly. But until then, you know, I would be— I am actually, uh, short— or sorry, I'm long puts on the oil services sector up until expiration on 16th of October. So that means essentially I am loving any downside we get until then. But I am long calls which expire in January 2021. So I really love the downside for the interim. I think to get involved in this market, how do we make money out of this information in the next 5 to 10 10 minutes or the next hour. Well, that means that we, we are buying this 3676, and we're stopping out below.

I'm gonna, uh, gonna have to interject. I feel like I'm stopping Trump here.

Oh yeah, here we go.

We, uh, yeah, let's focus in on the data and then we'll come back.

I can finish this after. Yeah, cool.

Yeah, we got about 30 seconds running, so Tim, sorry to jump in, but yeah, we'll circle back after. Yeah, so let me share my screen so people can see the reaction. I'll play it out of my mic. I'll leave it open so we can all hear the numbers as they come out.

Should be just 15 seconds now.

10 seconds. 6.61, that's 6.61 below the expected of 8.50. The unemployment rate, 7.9% below expected, 8.2. The headline, that's revised to 1.489 million. For wages, month on month, 0.1% below expected, 0.2. Young year, 4.7 below expected, 4.8. Average workweek hours, 34.7 against expected 34.6. Participation rate falls to 61.4 from 61.7.

7.

In terms of breakdown, private was 877 but expected 850, manufacturing 66 above 35, government -216. And in terms of other revisions, private payrolls revised to 1.022 million, manufacturing revised to 36, government revised to 467. And then for the earnings components, month-to-month price higher to 0.3, year-on-year to 4.6. In terms of the birth-death adjustment, that was -62,000, gets a private 1.54. To its net, +1.45 against a prior +0.39. So let's go over the bones of that report. That was a miss on expectations, the headline again at 6.61, but expected 8.50. Was a steeper decline in the unemployment rates than expected, whilst the earnings components, they were slightly softer than expected and subject to downward revision.

Okay, I'm just going to cut them off for a second because my initial take there is that's a non-event. I mean, there's nothing really there that really jumps out to me on the first instance. I'll continue to just keep an eye out if there's anything else. But my initial glance over the numbers, yeah, the unemployment rate's a touch lower. There's a slight miss, which is counter to ADP, but nothing at all that would move the needle, that would really spook markets and really detract too much from what the bigger narrative is today, which is Donald Trump and that story. So this is a non-event as far as I can see it. But as I said, what I'm interested now in is Well, what does the market do now? Now that we've, now that we've got rid of this event, you know, if payrolls was going to come out and it was a negative 500,000, negative million, sure, but now it's gone. Do we now start to see a bit more of a, of a further follow-through on some of the direction and where we want to take this, this kind of Trump story? One thing that came out just before payrolls is Steven Mnuchin is COVID-free. And I know that I'm not saying that because I love Steve, but Steve is a very important guy for whether or not the market's going to get stimulus. So the fact that he's well and not having to self-isolate and he's not positive, with Pence also within the last hour being also COVID-free, it's been reported as well according to one of the aides. I think they are quite actually positive things. The worst case possible scenario would be that if Mnuchin's got it, he can't then really have good dialogue on the negotiations on stimulus with Pelosi. So then you remove— you got, if Pence had it, more uncertainty heaped on the fact that if him and Trump were down, what does that mean for the election uncertainty? And then if Mnuchin was down, obviously that breaks down the talks on Capitol Hill. So the fact that those two guys are a well is, uh, I think an aversion of possibly what could have been a, a worse situation given where we were at 6 AM this morning, uh, London time. So yeah, initial take. But guys, anything that you, you'd like to add at this point?

Oh yeah, I, I completely agree. A bit of a non-reaction, isn't it? And obviously for stimulus hopes yeah, it is good news for equity markets in a sense. It's not any more bad news really, effectively, with the minutes being seen. A tweet from everyone's favorite, uh, trader Dave Portnoy said he's expecting two things: buying dips and being owner. Looking forward to today's stream. I know he's not everyone's cup of tea, but, um, always, always a bit of a laugh either way. But obviously don't take it, guys, would be my, uh, my—

that.

But yeah, non-farm payrolls not too much to take from that. It's a bit mixed, um, and not enough for me to dive in right now.

Yeah, for me, I just loaded up a little bit more on the short on the S&P here. It kind of came back to a critical point for me, but I could be taking that off in the next 10 minutes. So, uh, we'll see. Nothing, nothing crazy going on. A little bit of euro volatility to be expected, but nothing, nothing for me. Uh, yeah, for oil, um, you know, again, really I'd just be waiting for any breakdowns below kind of 36— or sorry, 35.47 to get short.

Cool.

Yeah, I mean, this is— I'm just conscious of the fact that, you know, we've got a variety of different experience with the people that follow us on YouTube. And so just, just kind of crossing off those kind of bases that, you know, even though that we are global, we generally are global macro multi-asset traders operating in the intraday space, but part of the greatest skill is learning when to pick your battles. And, uh, for sure as much as we can prepare and strategize and have a game plan for what if the data comes out like, like A or B or C, at the end of the day, one of the greatest things here is learning to instill patience and discipline and then fire your weapon as and when then one of those more extreme situations materializes. And there genuinely is a good opportunity to really load up and trade in that perspective. So Yeah, I know there's a couple of people in the chat saying about, you know, is it, is it a bit weak or, you know, is it a dull reaction? So the main thing is, is that as well, you don't have to, to trade it immediately. Sometimes the better thing is just to stand off if there isn't an immediate reaction. There definitely isn't a trade there. That doesn't mean that there won't be plenty of opportunity later on this afternoon. Um, you know, if you think about it, going in a Friday into the weekend Like Sam said before the release, I think this weekend is going to be littered with updates about Trump. The one thing that Trump probably secured for the next 2 weeks is the headline of every single newspaper for every single day for the next 2 weeks. I mean, if that was a strategy to try and just overwhelm the media with getting broad coverage, but he's definitely going to get that. Be difficult really for Biden to get a word in at this point, I think, with all that's going on. So Yeah, I think there's a lot to play for really for the end of this session, and we haven't even talked about Brexit really. That's the other small point. Of course, I did see a tweet. Let me just transition my screen. So yesterday on my Twitter account, I did share a couple of useful people to follow. Twitter was awesome for getting the scoops and the rumors for Brexit headlines, and the pound was really jumping around yesterday on the back of some of them. And this was one lady, Lisa O'Carroll, The Guardian Brexit correspondent. She was reporting earlier that David Frost, who's obviously the main negotiator on the UK side, is due to make a statement around 4 PM on talks Downing Street have described as constructive and wide-ranging. We've heard it's a little bit mixed at the moment, and this is a point I was trying to emphasize in the briefing this morning. When it comes to things like Brexit source comments I think in terms of trade execution, you've just got to realize that this is a fairly— well, this is a very fluid situation that can change very quickly. And also underlying that, you need to understand the way of which these news agencies operate, which is in a sense they are fighting over market share and they live and die by who breaks the story first. And so what often happens is you know, your Bloomberg snaps a source comment saying, hey, and then Reuters comes out 5 minutes later reporting the complete opposite. Um, it's very typical. It's very unlikely Reuters are going to run the same headline as Bloomberg because it just makes them look slow, and therefore they would lose subscriptions. So if you think about it, when you're managing your trades, then if you're aware of that, you've just got to be quite proactive in the management of those trades if you are going to be taking them.

But don't get me wrong, trading the pound like a day like yesterday, realistically, I think if you haven't got a squawk where you've got full visibility and coverage with dedicated guys watching this type of stuff, then it's quite difficult to try and catch those initial moves. But that doesn't mean you can't get hold of some of them, the, the ensuing kind of trend that develops thereafter. Um, But yeah, before I jump over to the other guys, just one thing I wanted to mention is if you, if you don't follow, um, if you just come across this live broadcast, um, thank you for joining us, but don't forget to subscribe to the YouTube channel. Um, I put out a daily macro market briefing every London morning. Um, Sam puts out a video as well on a Sunday where he looks technically at the charts and setups for the week ahead across asset and then the other guys and the other members of the broader team will also be adding content as well on a periodic basis. So really appreciate it if you subscribe to the channel. Um, obviously any questions you have, it's a great medium to help us, um, to, to broaden that network but also help you guys. More than happy to take questions and so on. Um, also if you go on to AmplifyTrading.com So I'm just going to drop that in the chat now. Feel free to check it out. If you're— so here you can see our trading floor in London. But if you scroll down, there's a trader section in red. If you click there, learn more, you can find out some more information about what we do, how we trade. And then we have some different programs that we run. One is an online Portal, which is a community we have privately where we're, we're doing like what we're doing now all day. We've got a new platform that's going to be launched imminently for that side of things. And then we have an intensive training program which is led by Sam, but all of us are actively involved with that. Our next group is starting on Monday, in fact, for a 1-week intensive program with us, fully online. And then some of those guys are continuing on to do a full professional trading program where they have the opportunity to become, uh, depending on performance, ongoing backed by Amplify Trading, our capital. So if you want to check that out, just amplifytrading.com. And then we're quite active as well on Twitter. And, and really, we— the great thing I've always loved about working at Amplify is that all of us, we all have fairly different niches I would say, which I think is a great asset, particularly for, for not just our ability to convey in ourselves to form strategies, but also from a learning point of view for you guys. I very much exclusively just talk about really fundamentals as per the briefings you see in the morning. So feel free to follow me. I share useful infographics, crib sheets, these sorts of things, news as it develops. You can follow Sam much more looking at the technicals. And trade setups and what he's doing with the, the live guys. Alex, very much so involved with trading day-to-day but also helping doing the one-to-one development with some of the guys who are, who are lesser experienced. And then Tim, crude oil futures is really his forte, and as you heard him talk about briefly, um, very much, you know, he is, he is our internal go-to guy when it comes to that product. So yeah, good, good all-round coverage, I'd say, that I'd want you guys to take, take advantage of. But look, we've got, let's say, 5 more minutes to run the live broadcast. Does anyone have any questions at all in the chat room? So I can see there's obviously quite a few people in there at the minute. Does anyone have any questions for any of us, either about the release or about Amplify, about a particular question about trading, anything.

Happy to help quickly before people do type their questions. I've just seen Trump's virus case is mild so far with cold-like symptoms, and that's the New York Times. I guess that's how it's going to start though, isn't it? And it'll be developments from there. But just interesting, just, uh, that's coming from a couple of minutes ago.

Yeah, I think it's—

I don't think it would take too much of a tweet similar to that, but just saying that Trump symptoms have taken a turn for the worse. Something as generic and as loose as that, I think, could really move the market.

Definitely, I would say if I was looking at an impact scale, now is the point of maximum impact because it's fresh. And as we go forward, we'll become more informed about his status. So if there's going to be an opportunity here to really whack the market into the weekend now is optimal. And now payrolls is gone, I think people really latch on now looking for any more updates to come out. So that's our reference point now, what Sam just said, is the virus is mild so far, cold-like symptoms. So that's what the market is priced for, if you like. If it's any worse developments there, the price— the market's got to reflect that in terms of intraday prices. So I definitely would be super vigilant looking out for that as we go on for the rest of the day. All right, have we got any questions at all?

Let's have a look.

Maybe I can read them out and then whoever's best placed to, to respond, you can just go for it. So, prediction on an oil rebound? The supply is being cut to record levels. Love to hear thoughts on the whipsaw price action.

Yeah, big one. That's the question really. Half of, well, the whole energy community wants to know now. You know, I think there's this, the overhanging threat to oil is that OPEC are not, well, are going to taper off as planned the cuts that they brought in in April. And there's a lot of people in Virtu, I think it is, or some of the oil, big oil trading companies who want OPEC to sort of sustain the cuts for a little longer than they currently have planned. So really the market is, isn't gonna, it can't price that in because that's just a hope. It's not a reality. So The reality we have is now that OPEC are going to be tapering off in these cuts. What does that say to me? You know, it says that there's a lot of downside in the price. You know, trade has skipped trading the October contract and gone straight to X November contract. So that's sort of traders saying, listen, we don't want the volatility involved in the October— sorry, October deliverables. We're just going to skip to November. And start trying to position and roll their positions into further dated contracts. So the front month now is actually 2 months ahead of delivery. So, you know, we—

that's—

this is why we need to see these distillate drawdowns continually over the next couple of DOE events. And we do need to monitor for airline numbers going up. And, you know, this is— if we see airline passenger figures go up, that's really going to be great for oil, you know, and people can start to price in higher prices. But until we get that, you know, $30, I think if we breach the $36.76 today on the downside, we are now trading below VWAP on the year. If I share my trade screen here for oil. And, you know, if we breach this thing to the downside, um, well, let me, let me tell you, we, you know, the major zones below are down here. I would say let's get a little zone going on here, say there, uh, you know, we're looking at $32.50 to $31, uh, and then below that we've kind of got levels, uh, I'm only loading about 100 days here. We're talking at $2,897. It's totally not impossible that we would see these prices should restrictions remain in the UK, around Europe, in the US. So I hope that kind of helps to answer this question a little bit, but it's a big one. It's a big one.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Cool.

Thank you, Tim. We're just having a look. Maybe one for you, Sam. Does Aussie look set for a move? Anything in the Aussie that looks interesting to you?

Yeah, I was— I'll bring a chart up actually. Um, let me just share my screen. So I was talking yesterday, I mean, copper had a bad day yesterday. Um, we know that the correlation there between the copper and Aussie, and obviously there was, you know, negative Okay, I can, uh, it's a bit choppy, Sam.

Um, yeah, you're frozen on my video. I'm gonna move on from Sam because, uh, it's getting— otherwise he's, uh, unless he's some sort of breakdance artist specialist and he's doing some funky moves, it's freezing quite badly on my side.

Cool.

What about now?

Yeah, that's a little bit better.

Give it one more.

I'll try to smash through what I think. Yeah, actually, I do think there's, uh, well, to be honest, it looks like a great level to, to go short should we sort of finish the day where we are now, just rejecting, uh, a previous area which was solid support. Reminds me of the pound. Let's just have a quick look over at the pound. You know, this, this movement where it breaks a key level of support, takes a few days just to grind its way back up, and that's the opportunity to to get in those shorts. And, and, you know, technically I would be happy selling as long as price, you know, stays below 72.27-ish on a close. So yeah, for me, Aussie, I think there is downside to come. If stocks come under pressure, there is more downside for, for sure. Let's have a quick look over at copper because it had a bad day yesterday. Um, however, it has recovered a tiny bit today. You can see that move to the downside really kicking in on, uh, well kind of around this time yesterday, big push. So yeah, if copper, you know, starts to find resistance— and I mean, what a level, the low here of the 24th turns out to be the high of the day— if copper then starts pushing lower, equities start moving negatively in 50 minutes or 40 minutes whenever the US cash open is, yeah, for me, Aussie, at the moment, uh, it's too high. I, I like the, the idea of a short.

Okay, thank you, Sam. And then, uh, Alex, someone's just asked about the euro, saying, can we take a look at euro dollar long-term chart, like a weekly or monthly?

Yeah, absolutely we can.

Yeah, do you want to share the screen and talk us through?

Great question, that is.

Um, it's going down in my mind.

Yeah, so on the long-term chart, let's go on a weekly. We had that trend line that we were talking about last year. We actually got— but excuse me, it's got that trend line here which held as resistance. I think on the longer term time frame, we're just pulling back. Remember back in mid-May, we had the EU Recovery Fund, and then we had this second push-up here, US stimulus. So overbought here looking on the weekly time frame, you know, uh, stochastics were so— the most overbought they'd been since 2017, and that positioning just needed to pull back a bit. And I think, I think there's more room here for a pullback. Yeah, I agree with Tim, but I think once we reach down towards this sort of weekly Fib 382 that I've got here, which actually lines up with the 115 handle, I'd be looking to go long again. I wonder where Is there any interest in moving averages around people? So it looks like the 100-day moving average coming up. Um, yeah, so if we break below this sort of range low here and we close the session quite bearish, I'd be bearish into the beginning of next week for sure. A little bit more profit taking here potentially down through that September low point around the 16 handle. But I think at some point we find support, whether that's at 16 or whether that's at 15. I think we find support and then I'd be looking sort of back end of the year after the election, maybe even next year, I'll be looking for 1.25, which is that 2018 high up here. The reason I'm looking at 1.25, even higher than that, is because I think structurally what's happened in the euro area with their recovery fund is massively bullish. And couple that with massive stimulus from the Fed I think that once we do get a bit of a pullback here, if we look at the price action from 2017, this is Macron's rally here where Macron— this was the election and the gap up. The price rallied sharply, pulled back. How much did it pull back? Pull back about 4.5%. Pull back 4.5%, sort of a 4.5% retracement here would put us bang around that 115 area. And then look what happened after that, you know, we rallied all the way up to sort of 126 from that low here, back up towards another 8.5%. So I'll be looking for something like that. So I'll be looking for this pullback to come in, find support, and then rally higher like that.

I mean, if I could come in to add to this, I've been tracking a wedge on the Dixie, uh, which has been an absolute beaut. If I could kind of get this going on here. Let me see, I'm gonna share that. Uh, let's do this. Share screen. Cool. So here we have the Dixie, this is some, I think, our Swim account. Um, you can see that this is, uh, monthly bars, and we have kind of the highs put in and a 1 here causing a downtrend. Well, look at how that traded in 2017, December 2017. Amazing. And the blowtop in February, March this year, and then trading right down. Well, where are we getting our low trend from? Kind of picking the low here, May 2011. We've got June 2014, and look at how that's provided a great bit of support support here in conjunction with the highs of October 2004, sorry, November 2005. So this is kind of the structure for me on, you know, inverse to EUR/USD and this has kind of been my real guide at the moment for the last really month. So some big stuff.

Yeah, great. That's such an interesting long-term trend for sure. But look, let me— a couple things then, just want to wrap up. One is just the last question. Wayne asking, can you explain revisions to numbers and the importance, if any? Yeah, I'll give you a very quick kind of overview. Revisions are important only really for specific most high-tiered data. So typically something like nonfarm payrolls, Generally, it's such a big report, it will go through not just a revision to previous but a 2-month net revision. And so that's particularly important. ADP revision is always very important. And it's not relevant for all data sets, but generally those that are classically more important because they carry more weight in terms of general, I guess, what the Federal Reserve would take as an input for their policy decision making. But then also from a data sample size point of view, the refinement through accuracy that something like payrolls would go through, kind of like with GDP getting three figures— advanced, preliminary, and final—

in that respect.

So revisions definitely can be important. One thing I'd say from a practical point of view when you're trading is if you are trading something like payrolls, that's why it's not particularly wise to hit market just on that top headline figure because in a non-COVID world, it's not just the headline figure, it's the unemployment rate, it's average hourly earnings as indication of kind of future inflation, it's the revision, it's the 2-month net revision. So in fact, there's a number of variables that you need to consider in as a whole rather than just reacting to the first number, because if you're not aware of those, let's say, revisions, what can happen is the market can pop up and then pop back down and it can hurt you very quickly. Again, with news-driven events, the best thing that we try to encourage the guys that we're training is we go through all of the preparation, we watch, learn, and review, then we do it again, then we do it again, then we do it again. And then this is how you build out that expertise then of being able to get to a point where, A, you can make quick, decisive mental kind of decisions, and then that enhances your conviction And then you need to practice execution. You know, there's one thing, I think, having an ability to generate an idea fundamentally, technically, but if you are going to be looking to get in the market quite aggressively like that, it's going to take a lot of practice. And that's fine because trading is, is a long-term game in that sense. So final things then, uh, as I said before, thank you very much for joining us and thank you to the guys I know we're all kind of dotted about these days rather than always in the office every day given the ongoing COVID situation, but thank you very much, chaps. If you are, if you are following on, on YouTube and you don't follow the channel, just remember, hit that subscribe button, click the bell icon, and you'll get a notification every time any of our videos go, go out as soon as they're updated. But yeah, thank you very much, everyone.

Thank you, guys.

See you.

Thanks. Thanks, everyone. Have a nice weekend.

Thank you.