US Non-Farm Payrolls LIVE

input. And then Head of Trading Piers will join us as well shortly. Okay, we're up and running. All right, Alex, why don't you take us away with a bit of a preview on the fundamental side of things, and then we'll get Sam on to follow, who could look at some of the charts, uh, as well.

Yeah, sure. Hi guys and welcome.

Sam, if you can make, um, Alex co-host.

Yeah, I need to share one. Can you see the screen there?

Yep, all good.

Okay, so let's kick off with the non-farm payrolls for September 4th. Just wanted to start with a quick summary, uh, the summary being the non-farm payrolls is unlikely to change the macro landscape of the dovish major trend in the lot, in the medium term. And the short-term overstretched positioning, the EUR/USD rejects major resistance around 1.20, happened a couple of days ago. But the dovish dip buyers will be lurking below. The ECB expresses concern about the current strength of the euro. The ECB meeting for next week, I think that would be quite important. So, but what's expected for the NFP today. I'm going to leave Ant to sort of COVID the event itself, but we're not expecting too much from this one. As Anthony was saying this morning in his briefing, this more— this morning, the coming months are super important to the pace of the job growth with vaccine developments and the expiration of the stimulus packages and so on. And we simply don't have that information at hand at present which lessens the significance of this announcement today. We'll need to see more of that in the future. The consensus is for, uh, 1.4 million payrolls. That's versus the previous of 1.7, which is actually lower. I'm going to go on to why I don't think that's a problem. The analysts' expectations are super wide again, with 750k on the low side, 2 million on the high side. So it's going to be extremely difficult to get a big reaction out of this news event today. It's going to be hard for the number to fall outside those expectations. But if it does, obviously that would be super significant. Initial jobless claims have continued to trend lower throughout August, along with continuing claims. And the PMI subindices have also moved higher. It's likely that a down— a big downside surprise is limited. Given the high-frequency data points, but analyst expectations are still enormously wide, as we discussed. Uh, ING's base case for today is for a below-consensus print. However, the Capital Economics forecast is more bullish. So you can see there's not really much consensus around what research houses are forecasting for the event. Any reading that falls outside of the lower-higher ranges will have bigger market impact, of course, but that's going to be difficult. The unemployment rate expected to fall below 10%, and Goldman notes that resurgence of coronavirus did not produce a meaningful increase in layoffs in the Sunbelt regions based on the jobless claims data. I just wanted to talk about the pace of job growth, so compared to the last recession. Now, looking at two— so on the left-hand side here is the 2008 recession. On the right-hand side is the current coronavirus. Let's remember what Powell said. Powell said the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. And what does he mean by that? Well, looking at the 2008 recession, the recession happened in three stages. You had the first stage, we had mass unemployment. The second stage, we had a sharp rebound. And then the third stage, we had the sort of stabilization back towards the mean. The non-farm payroll mean being just under 200,000 over the last sort of 80 years. And so that's what we're sort of seeing here. We're seeing we have that— the only difference with the coronavirus is the unemployment was so sharp and so deep over the course of 2 months that the rebound happened a lot sharper. You can see the period of time here in 2008 was a lot longer. So this is why I don't think if we're seeing that the pace of job growth is slowing, it's actually normal, you know, um, given where we are here. It happened in 2008 and it's normal. So that's why it's not a problem.

And I would actually be expecting employment to start to return, the non-farm payrolls to start to return back to the median or the average, back around that 200,000. We're a long way away from that, you know, we're still adding sort of 1.7 million jobs here. But that obviously depends more on what happens next with the virus. So there's 3 possible scenarios. Number, number 1, a vaccine is developed or COVID disappears entirely, which means the economies can reopen, and that will cause a sharp resurgence in employment. So then this will come, come rising back. That's not going to happen just yet.

Okay.

Number 2 is COVID continues to linger without a giant second wave, and this fear remains prevalent in the economy, and with the economy running below pre-virus levels for a prolonged period. And in this scenario, you would likely see employment sort of stay— continue the pace of growth to continue to slow, potentially even, even turn a touch negative like what we saw here. Back in 2008. And finally, a mighty second wave in the winter months happens without a vaccine, which even without a national lockdown, fear alone would reduce footfall in shops, keep businesses running skeleton crews. You know, anyone that's been out and about in the UK at the moment has seen that the economy is nowhere near what it was pre-coronavirus, uh, all of this one-way through shops and, and stuff like that. A lot of the shops still closed. This— in that scenario, would likely see unemployment rise. And so we don't have that information just yet, okay? But this is why I don't think today's report is going to be too exciting unless it falls outside of analyst expectations. Again, I want to talk about the positioning, like what we spoke about over Jackson Hole. This is a positioning for the euro dollar. Positioning, but positioning across the entire dovish trend is extremely stretched with the EUR/USD long positioning now higher than the 2017-2018 Macron rally, which was back here. This is all-time highs for the euro positioning-wise, and you can see how stretched we are. And this makes us vulnerable to a correction. You know, prices rallied almost 13% in the last 24 weeks from low to high since March. Without much in the ways of a retracement. And in 2018, price rallied 17% in 37 weeks, including the consolidation prior to the rally. Um, so price is testing the 1.20 mark on the euro dollar, and in recent weeks the rally has been losing steam. All this makes the euro dollar vulnerable to a correction lower in the near term, back towards that 1.1750, 1.1700 mark. And I feel that way across the entire dovish trend. We saw that in the equity market yesterday, big pullback in the equity market. I think that— this was another slide here from the euro. Sorry to— you can see this was Macron's rally here. We rallied up and this is a weekly chart. You can see the stochastic here reached a 97 on the weekly timeframe before it started to roll over and we got this pullback. Well, look where we are now. Look, we're back up here at this 120 mark, which is where we were back here. And the stochastic again has reached that 95 area. And are we going to pull back here? I'm not saying we're going to change trend, but just a little bit of a correction there. And I expect that across the entire dovish space. So conclusion then, all in all, is the non-farm payroll doesn't change the current narrative of the medium, medium-term dovish view. If it's worse than expected, then this strengthens the Fed's dovish view to do whatever it takes to support the economy. So if the non-farm payroll is worse, then the Fed is just going to do more stimulus-wise. But if it's better than expected, then the Fed will remain on its current path with many more tools left to be unveiled in the future. So my sort of view is, as it has been, you know, for months now, is the dovish trend to continue over the medium term. Overstretched positioning may cause a correction, which is just buy the dip.

In my view.

And that'll be the same across all of those assets.

Careful, Alex, you start saying buy the dip and, uh, Sam's gonna get a bit excited. But with that being said then, is it appropriate time now to hand over to Sam?

Yeah, yeah, that's all I've got today.

Oh, thank you, thank you, thank you, Alex. Yeah, yeah, no, great, uh, great introduction. And yeah, the words 'buy the dip' ring loudly in my ears. Let's have a look at the charts and talk about those dips. Um, am I sharing the charts? Is that up? Yeah, yeah, uh, in the office today, so it's hard to get my pairings right. But the dip that we saw yesterday, 21-day moving average, um, has been hit across the board. The Dow here, 28,000. Look, these, these markets, uh, it's all about where we finish the week now, isn't it? You know, do we get a further sell-off post these numbers, finish below the 21- day moving average in the Dow finished below yesterday's low, which is also the high of 11th of August, which as well is that double bottom that we had at the beginning of the year. Find me a bigger level for the Dow if you can, uh, it's all about that. And then to the upside, you can see today's high is just the lower Wednesday. So putting that onto the 60-minute, uh, time frame, I think it's just been a bit slow here, so we'll keep it on the daily. But it's the same for both the the S&P. In, in having a look at that, you can see the 21-day moving average hit that yesterday, was, was perfect, uh, support. Just waiting for my charts just to load up. It has had a bit of a bounce since then, although is now down on the day. That also hit a key level of resistance, as did the NASDAQ. Unfortunately, guys, my charts have just been a tiny bit slow here. So, and I don't know if you want to take over as mine aren't loading up.

Yeah, sure. All right, let me go over.

Cheers, thank you.

So yeah, I'll just pick up where, where Sam was. So yeah, just looking at the, the equity charts, I mean, I talked about this quite a bit in my, in my briefing this morning, and I was looking at the The same as Sam, it's kind of like the, the support that we found around 21 DMA. I think, as he said, where we close today is going to be quite key. As I discussed, you kind of— you've got the same technical point of the 21 DMA repeated in the NASDAQ as, as what you would have in the Dow. And we're obviously within striking distance of the moment, so that does for me leave, under certain conditions, the NASDAQ a little bit vulnerable to the downside from a technical perspective, at least, uh, should this payroll report not be— I agree with Alex, uh, I think it's not a definitive game changer as far as I think the Fed have kind of shown their hand for the time being. And we might get some more clarity to that in the upcoming September meeting in 2 or so, week and a half's time. But that doesn't mean that we couldn't act as a catalyst. And that previous area, that high in the NASDAQ future on the 21st and the support on the 25th that we found. We closed, uh, or we reopened on that same level. I think that's quite key. And if we did break lower today, then, uh, we definitely could see a rundown to 11,500. Wouldn't be surprising to see perhaps a little bit of a deeper, heavier move, um, of another 200 points on where we're at at the moment already. I don't think that's out of the realms of possibility, uh, in that sense. Uh, but this— these are strong levels. So, uh, I guess I'd prefer to see a break first to get a definitive answer of seeing that commitment either side rather than trying to be too aggressive here on the back of this. But equally so on the Dow, if I was looking at that, it's the same level really as what we were looking at this morning. It's key to look at, um, again, there is scope for a breakdown in price, could open up a bit of a deeper drawdown in some of the sell-off that we've had from yesterday. Uh, and then in terms of the movement back onto the upside, obviously the intraday high, uh, would be an area to, to look at, and then the prior high that we saw, uh, from the 31st. Before then, I mean, I don't, I don't think we're going to get back up to these types of areas today, and on the back of payrolls, I don't really see that happening. Um, on the currency side of things, I mean, things have been awfully quiet this morning, but that's probably as you would anticipate. It's the usual nature of the pre-nonfarm environment, I would say. So currency pairs have been pretty sideways. I guess if we're looking at the euro for a moment, we've had a, an area of consolidation defined by the pivot level, the intraday price activity, and then on the upside, kind of double top from the price action from yesterday evening, yeah, London time, and this morning. And so really, again, on the downside, key area will be around that pivot and intraday low, uh, first thing this morning. Any further push down on the back of dollar strength, if we were to get a particularly strong all-round report in payrolls, then could continue that kind of what has been a trend. Obviously, with the ECB getting a little bit nervous about the ongoing strength of the euro, certainly would help things, um, to the downside. On the flip side, a break above that double top then could then lead to a bit of a push-up, and I'd be looking up at around those areas to the highs we initially had, uh, here back on the 2nd. So going back towards the beginning of the week, uh, and then with the R1 just above. In the, in the cable, again, it's going to be dollar-led story. I've been— I just saw some source comments come out, um, a short while ago when we started the presentation, um, and I think it was a UK source saying EU needs to realize that what we're asking for is at odds with what the British people voted for. We're not something we would accept, and EU asked that we accept continuity of EU state aid fisheries and policy is simply not compatible with our status as fully independent country. So all of these Brexit comments at the moment, I think, are exactly what you would anticipate. There's absolutely no need going into a new round of negotiations starting on Monday for you to be giving way and conceding at this point. I think at the moment there's still a bit of time to the, to the more kind of hypothetical cliff edge coming in the early part of October for a soft deadline for Brexit. So I wouldn't expect anything other than the two parties to be quite far apart. So I don't really think this is really too much of a thing right now, but if you saw the briefing I delivered this morning, I would say there's a heck of a lot of speed bumps in the, in the, uh, in the near view, uh, of the UK just coming up as we go in towards October in particular. And so yeah, fundamentally a good report here if we can add to a little bit of the dollar, um, appreciation that we've had, um, really over the, you know, in recent trade after we had that initial earlier week continuation of the sell-off. Now it's reversed course a little bit. Um, that could certainly help a further breakdown here on the downside. And you can see we're just holding at quite a key level in the near term at 132.55. Um, gold, gold's been quite interesting. Um, obviously there's quite a big equity sell-off yesterday, but gold, not really that interested, to put it mildly. And, you know, people look at gold as like the kind of indicator of general risk appetite and sentiment. And we had this— if you were reading the press yesterday, I think people were getting a little bit ahead of themselves and pure panic about now, you know, this is it. The bubble is going to burst. It's time for a big correction in markets. But I can see Piers has just come on. And I did see a comment from Piers earlier and he was talking about, well, hang on a second. The tech names which are massively stretched have come off, and perhaps rightly so given how radically they've rallied. Particularly, you know, some of those real pandemic-sensitive names like Zoom, post-earnings I think they were up 25%. So if they come off 25%, we are pretty much scratch. But what has happened, and what quite a few people have talked about, is a rotation into actually what is you could argue a fairly healthy thing, which is some of those battened-down stocks which have been hurt, like Carnival, or these kind of more ones tied to hospitality and leisure, which really got killed in March. But if we start to see a more broad-based buying rather than just led by tech giants, well, isn't that, isn't that a good thing? But net-net, gold was not interested at all yesterday, which I thought was quite interesting with that with the amount of coverage that the equity sell-off received. So gold here, um, I've got some levels here I've had on before that was marked up. I guess downside we've kind of flirted with, had a few attempts, failed breaks of pivot intraday. You've then got the low that we printed yesterday afternoon, and then more encapsulating some of the near-term range that we've had really for the last 2 weeks of August. So that kind of area there encompassing in between, which is also the S1, is quite key to watch. And again, this would be contingent, I guess, on some further carry-through of dollar strength on the back of an all-round good report, which could bump down those, um, those currency markets in EURUSD and cable. But one thing I'm quite interested in to hear is— if now Piers is on, what does Piers, uh, if I can ask you, um, what do you think about the equity reaction under different scenarios here for this payroll report, if there is going to be any reaction at all? Like, how, how would you guess these guys perceive a good report and its impact, and a negative report and its impact?

So I think what's important— I mean, you're talking about gold there, and it kind of seems uninteresting— uninterested over the last sort of 24, 48 hours when you've seen this big correction lower in some of these top-level stock indices. And I don't think, I don't think this stock sell-off we've seen in the last 48 hours, I don't think it's necessarily, it's not like a risk-off move. It's a profit-taking move. And it's profit-taking from one part of the stock index, one, one sector, particularly tech. And the money, the cash that's being raised by selling these stocks is then being shoveled into different equities. When you look at the S&P and obviously particularly the NASDAQ, it looks like, wow, massive sell-off. Wow, it's all kicking off. Hang on a minute, why is gold not moving? Well, it's because it's not a panic risk-off. It's just profit-taking. The other big moves in recent months, of course, is the dollar, dollar weakness. And again, as we've hit September, you look at things like the euro-dollar hitting that 120 handle and then nice big pullback over the last couple of days. So it's more like profit taking. I think people then kind of fit a narrative to what they're seeing. So they see the stock market selling off, they go, oh, wow, the election's coming, let's start panicking. But we know the election's coming. We knew that last week when the NASDAQ was ramping through new all-time highs. It's not like it's different this week. So I think we're delicately poised now. Looking into Q4, are we going to have a meaningful equity correction? And I mean across the sectors. I don't see that happening necessarily unless you start getting some of these big economic data points showing that the sort of post-summer economic situation is going to be markedly worse than we've been hoping. You know, I think we've gone through the summer, lockdowns have been reversed, and I, you know, and I just think we've been a bit more optimistic about this whole COVID thing. And it's just that the harsh reality may hit in that all of this government support, furloughing, and, and all the rest of it, when that gets kind of turned off, what's the situation look like? And I think until we find that out, I don't think you're going to get a major stock market proper correction. Now, this data that's coming Fine, this is about August. Yeah, fine, it's interesting. You know, in the US, some of that sort of furlough government help was switched off at the end of July. And fine, we, you know, I think this, this report today might be the start of a bit more concern about what Q4 looks like if the number disappoints. And I think if the number does disappoint big time, you know, let's say it's negative, then fine, I think you will see perhaps a bit of a risk-off, which will be broad-based stocks selling off, gold going up, you know. But then, you know, we've got, we got the Fed coming in a couple of weeks, right? And so, you know, the worse this data gets, well, then the more assertive the Fed will be with regards to their stimulus plan.

So here's what you were saying then, putting it this way. I was reading this morning about Rishi Sunak Obviously, he was incredibly well received with how he initially responded, with the size of response in Britain to COVID-19 in various different ways. But you've got the end of the subsidy program for the restaurant industry happening. You've got the ban on evicting residential tenants, rent in arrears is expiring in 2 weeks' time. You've got furlough ending in October, you've got a soft deadline for Brexit in October. You've got mortgage borrower holidays coming to an end. Can the government realistically not continue these things? I know there's political pressure internally. What I'm saying is, if you were to think about this, other European countries like Germany, I know that fiscally they've got perhaps a little bit more wiggle room, but they've extended now into next year. Macron's come out with a, we're already in a fairly precarious situation, but let's just do another 100 billion. Because I've got to get reelected in 2 years. Won't Britain simply just— and for an equity medium-term perspective then, to stop it seeing a severe correction, can they unwind these this soon? We're just about to go into the fall.

Yeah, this is a big— this is the big question. I think that's a 2021 scenario. I think governments will extend if they have to, this stimulus. The money, the amount of money has just got ridiculous. We're already into craziness territory when it comes to the amount of government debt they're going to take on to perform this kind of support act. And so what's a little bit more? It will happen, but it's not sustainable for the long— well, for the medium term, never mind the long term. I think stocks have come off in the last couple of days. It's profit taking because we're coming to the end of the summer. What's going to happen? Is the economy going to crash again? Are governments going to come in and support it? These are a bit unknowns, but people aren't ready to hit the panic button. I mean, investors aren't ready to hit the panic button yet. We need more clear information. And perhaps this will be the first glimpse of that. So I'd say today, look, you've got to think about what's happened. Nonfarm payrolls triggers quite a lot of short-term movement. And whether it changes anything in the long term, I don't think it really does, one single number. So here today, I think, look, the dollar has strengthened in the last 48 hours. And so I think just looking really short-term, you know, dollar weakness off bad data could be a good trade. And then looking at gold off bad data, you know, gold, that there is some pent-up sort of upside potential given what's happened to stocks in the last 48 hours. So perhaps gold higher off bad news might be an interesting trade as well. But I think this will provide short-term volatility. You know, I think, I think in the end though, this payrolls figure will be forgotten about by the time we get into next week.

Yeah, agreed. And just a final point, just in case Alex I didn't mention it, it's about the Census job, temporary job hiring. I think that equates to about 240,000, and that's due to continue on through into September's data as well. Before then, it kind of falls out into October, which coincides with a lot of that whole idea about the COVID situation and the vaccine development, where that is, that will dictate then the government's course of action, I guess. But look, we've got literally a minute. I'm going to turn the squawk on. I'll play the release via my mic so you'll hear the information come out. I'm going to share my screens so you can see the initial reaction, but for the guys here, feel free to jump on as and when you feel appropriate.

Yeah, thank you, Ant. Just, uh, obviously 20 seconds or so to go. Just a reminder, the CAD data out at the same time, so any CAD traders be double wary, uh, in literally 20 seconds or so.

10 seconds. 1 spot 3, 7, 1 million. 1 spot 3, 7, 1 million. Signet, blow expected 1 spot 4. Unemployment rates 8 spot 4%, blow expected 9 spots 8. U6 14 spot 2%, down from the prior 16 spot 5. Participation 61 spot 7, up from the prior 61 spot 4. Average earnings month on month 0.4 above the expected 0%. Year on year 4 spot 7 above the expected 4 spot 5. Turning to CAD employment change, 254 245 spots, 8,000 below the expected 275. Full-time, 205 spots, 8,000 up from the prior 73.2. Part-time, 40,000 down from the prior 345. Returning to the US data, private payrolls, that's 1 spot, 0.27 million. Manufacturing, 29,000 below the expected 50,000. Government, 344,000 above the prior 301,000.

Wages.

That's plus 6% year on year compared to the prior 5.7. In terms of reaction to this data, not seeing too much movement across US equity futures. Treasuries have seen a touch of downside and the dollar has just moved back into positive territory. In terms of dollar CAD, that's very little moved on this release.

All right, well, I'm just going to turn the squawk down for a second. But yeah, the headline reading was pretty much about as in line as you get as far as non-farm payrolls goes, 1.371 million. The unemployment rate was actually 8.4%, 8.4%. Expectations were for 9.8%. So actually you had a little bit of a dollar pop there initially. You can see that on the currency charts. It's reflecting that in the top left-hand corner, euro-dollar and cable. But both have held those levels that we were looking at technically. Equity markets had a little pop up and the yields popped momentarily. So all reacting to kind of, let's say, a worst case has not materialized. And with the unemployment perhaps just causing a few— raising a few eyebrows. So that's the initial take. But overall, this reaction is in the initial aftermath, very muted. Any other observations, guys?

Yeah, hi guys. Yeah, no, I think the unemployment rate, that's a, you know, good, good number there. You got that brief dollar strength, but I don't think it's enough, isn't it? And it's like what Piers said, it's, you know, come Monday, Tuesday, people have forgotten about this. And I think the markets are showing that for now. Sana, I just see your question. On the YouTube channel what do I think about equities. I, I think, you know, it's, it's a good opportunity, especially if we finish above the 21-day moving average today on the week, to actually get in again. Uh, to be honest, I wanted 3,400 in the S&P. That didn't quite happen. The 21-day moving average in the NASDAQ and obviously the others did happen, and 28,000 in, in the Dow basically did. I think if they hold, uh, especially into the back end of this week, the volume's going to start to pick up and I die down, I should say, and that would help. But yeah, relatively, you know, I mean, forgettable non-farm payroll reading, I would say, which, which I don't mind for, for stocks.

Yeah, I'd add to that by just coming back to the points we were talking about before about this stock sell-off that we've seen in the last 48 hours being not risk-off sell-off but just more rotation of assets that are those risky tech names that have been through the roof in recent months, and then into perhaps some of those lesser-loved, you know, more COVID-impacted stocks. I think this unemployment rate is definitely the most interesting number out of the whole lot. And obviously, you know, on the face of it, it's kind of crazy to say, you know, it is 1.4% better than expected, which in any other year would be an absolute extraordinary beat. Obviously in this year it's like, well, whatever, doesn't really matter. But it is a strong, you know, it's a better than expected unemployment number. Now, you know, with that equity space then, I think that's enough, that's enough reassurance in the short term for us not to see this stock market correction turn into more of a broad-based risk-off. Do you see what I mean? So I think that the, the sell-offs in the top-level indices can probably stabilize, and if not now, certainly into the end of this week, i.e., into the end of today. I think these stocks can stabilize, and maybe next week there can be some upside. So I don't think— that's a strong enough unemployment number to just calm the nerves. People were beginning to get a bit carried away. Hang on, stock market rally. Oh my God, the election's coming. You can feel some jittery people were beginning to jump on that bandwagon, and that might have led to a bit more of a broad-based risk-off. But I think that unemployment rate number is probably enough to just calm that. You see what I mean?

Yeah, I can. Sure. I'd like to just talk about the dollar as well, just quickly. I think it'd be interesting to see whether that profit-taking continues here with that dollar strength. I think with the ECB next week, that 120 is going to hold in the euro. And the fact that it wasn't super bad and the unemployment rate's better than expected, maybe the euro strengthens back up towards that 120. Before the ECB meeting. I think that'd be really interesting for next week. So I think the 1.20 holds. Um, so I got sort of a— I'm a little bit on the fence with the euro at the moment as to whether this— if this correction comes back down towards sort of 1.1750, 1.1700, long weekend, as Anthony Cheung was saying this morning, I'll definitely be a buyer down there. Um, pivot just holding at the moment in the euro. I think there's definitely an argument for the dollar to continue to weaken back up towards 120. It's just whether that's going to be sort of now or wait for lower prices down towards that 1750. We're just testing the pivot again, so I'm sort of waiting and watching and, um, and make a decision probably sort of next week as to whether to go long, maybe Tuesday, Wednesday, or whether maybe the back end of next week back up towards that 120. I think that's a good risk to reward trade.

I agree. Can I add to that just on the technical side? Such a good channel. I don't know if I can share my screenshot.

Can I?

Yes, Sam, I think you need to do it as host.

There's such a good channel on the euro dollar looking back over the last 5 weeks. This unemployment rate number may be just about strong enough to get the dollar strengthening to bring that euro dollar down onto the bottom side of the channel. It's coming in around about the 18 handle. So, you know, I can't think— Sam, can you give me sharing rights?

Just while we're waiting for Sam to sort that, and while Piers will go on to explain that, that move, can— if you've got any questions at all, do you'd like for any of us to start typing them away? And whilst Piers finishes off this explanation in the currency pair, we'll, we'll pick those up after.

Yeah, Piers, you should have rights.

Ah, yeah, can you stop sharing your screen and then I can take it?

Yeah, all yours.

Thank you very much. Yeah, so this is, this is what I'm talking about on the euro dollar. So I've just got this looking back over the last month, basically, we had that big dollar weakening phase. I mean, if you go further back, that big dollar weakening phase. So we're going through the kind of middle part of the summer and then we've had this slight consolidation as we'd been approaching 120, but still that kind of shape higher. And we've got a great channel here. And I'm just talking about anything around this 118 handle as we— if we move lower here, perhaps we're going to pick this up starting next week, maybe. And I was just saying that that unemployment rate being better than expected, bit a dollar strength, which takes this currency pair down, of course. And so looking for that area technically is particularly interesting. But I just want to dive across to gold because we were talking there about how gold's been a bit unloved. Stocks were selling off, gold wasn't going higher. You know, what's going on? And we've explained why in terms of it not being really a risk-off. But of course, slightly better than expected data here. We kind of picked up a nice resistance test there just on the top of that 1956 and just kind of heading to the downside now. But if we, if we look a little bit further out, then again, a bit of a sort of, bit of a kind of pennant sort of wedge situation. If I draw a couple of lines in here just to kind of pick out what I mean. And so certainly on the bottom side of this is particularly interesting. And We may well get a test of that. And, you know, that low point that we had from, from yesterday is just below there. So technically, gold's an interesting point here. It'll be interesting to see if the dollar strength can just tip this down below this, this wedge and maybe we can see a move down more towards testing that low point of the week. Well, sorry, low point, not this week, last week, $2,600. So just a few technical points there on gold.

Okay, so I can see a few questions. So how about like I, I act as host and then you guys can pick it up? Um, I've just re-entered my Tesla long for long-term position, multiple exits. Any words of advice from the Amplify team? Piers, have you got any Tesla exposure?

I do not have— I do not have Tesla exposure. Um, it's one of those ones that I've Being honest, I've always missed it. I get the long term for sure. I think Tesla are going to be— they've been the pioneer. All right, fine. Every other car manufacturer is now catching up. But I think Tesla definitely have a place, very large place in this more electric vehicle world that we're going to live in. And so I get the long term. It's just that on that short term, there's so much volatility. Volatility. You've got the Musk, Elon Musk risk with that trade. You know, you never know when he's going to tweet something and get into trouble. And so it's a dangerous one. But yeah, if you can pick up longs down the bottom end of its very large range, then fine. But you just got to have some balls of steel, so to speak, because there's going to be a lot of whipsaw action. And if you're prepared to ride through that, then yeah. Then sure, I wouldn't risk much on it. That's a small position trade.

Is that the ball of steel that broke the unbreakable car? Piers, I think you should do a little dance on camera for us, and maybe my stock price will start going up.

No one wants to see that.

I do, actually, to be fair.

Okay, um, there was a question about silver. I know there's a lot of people talking about silver. Um, it was almost outperforming gold. This was during that pre— that period of a couple of weeks that we had when gold really exploded through 2,000, got almost up to 2,100. Silver was outperforming even that big move. So guys, I don't know if there's anything technically you, you can talk over on, on silver chart. Maybe one for you, Sam, if it's, uh, well, yeah, if I might—

my charts aren't loading up, but if you want to get yours up, I can talk through what I think because I do think, uh, overall longer term silver and gold do go higher. I still think there's actually a tiny bit more downside, uh, to come short term in both of them, uh, so I would be, be looking to, to load up on some sort of longs around the 25 region. Which you've got on your left-hand side, you've got that little circle just before the 38.2. I, I would like price to come to there, and that's really where I see a good opportunity to get back in again. And with gold, I'd like a little push lower to then load up again, uh, on, on that move. If you have a look here, you see, I mean, on the monthly you've got those highs. Well, where were they from? Around sort of just above 1750. Uh, you know, if you go back on that monthly chart, if you draw up a line, just looks like it's around sort of 1,800, maybe just a bit lower. There we go. Yeah, around, around there would be fantastic. Obviously we had a great push not too long ago that took us way above that, so anything around there, you know, I'd snap your, your hand off for it. I don't think we, we would get to that, but down to, yeah. You know, $18.74, $18.80, I think is going to be still a nice, nice trade for that. So for both the silver and gold, I expect there to be a tiny bit more of a move to come. The trendline Piers had on recently, we just got a test of that. Um, so a break of that, maybe to flush out, uh, a couple more, uh, people that are still long, to then get in buyers a bit lower down is how I see that happening.

Okay, then another good question which will give me an opportunity to kind of lead on to talk about Amplify a little bit. But is there any chance for us to see your track record? It's very interesting for retail traders like me and others, I think.

Well, yeah, yeah, it is. I mean, one thing I see I was, was thinking of doing, um, now it's back in September, markets are moving, is start putting out some some, well, every trade that I sort of take for the month of September. I mean, I'm away Monday to Wednesday, but I'm more than happy to, to do that and put the ideas that I'm looking at on, on Twitter in the morning. Um, and I'm sure Anthony in a moment will go through our Twitter account. So I'm more than happy to sort of put my neck on the line, take these trades, and it's a good learning experience for, for everyone else as well.

So yeah, so I mean, one of the things I'll say on the back of that is that we have like a live virtual trading floor that we have via a private Zoom channel. It's got about 120-odd people in there, but Sam and Alex are sharing their trades all day, every day. But that's for the visibility of our own community, and we're going to have an enhancement to that chat room, the entire platform, that's going to be released in a couple of weeks' time. So yeah, I mean, that will be free to access for a period. And I'd say that's the best thing— get in there, have a look what our traders are doing, actually watch them, and then, uh, you'll be in a much better position then to really see the real tangible results of, of what we're doing. For our best advice. But yeah, on that point, um, if you haven't already done so, if you, if you are new to Amplify, don't forget to check out amplifytrading.com, which is our main website. Obviously there's different parts of our business We are all based on the, the trading arm, so we have a smaller proprietary trading division where people trade our funds. The idea here being that we can give them the environment that they need to develop and grow, and then from there on we can facilitate their backing. But we also have an ability through our connections in industry to place people in certain other bigger firms. But we do have a variety of different training programs. You can just go on to the Professional Trader Program section here. And if you're a student, we are actually coming to the end of our run of summer internship programs, but the training we do as students is very different. It's much more holistic, using our own proprietary software, doing a variety of different functions. But if you just want to get in contact with the team still to see how we can help, then if you're a student, just feel free to do so. On Twitter, as Sam mentioned, you can follow me. Obviously you're watching this, some of you on, on YouTube. Don't forget to subscribe to the channel. We have videos coming out pretty much daily from a variety of different members on the team, so do check that out. I have a morning briefing, one for the fundamental kind of global macro view every day. Sam has a technical setup one. We have guest speakers. I've got a great former bank FX strategist coming on to do an interview with me coming up in the coming weeks. We had an options specialist last week, so some real value there anyway that you can get straight away. But yeah, feel free to follow me on Twitter. I share generally opinion, insight, infographics, things I find interesting. You can follow Sam, um, @snorth19, and then you can follow Alex, @alexclarkfx. And again, he's tweeting quite actively as well, just throughout the day. I would share Piers's Twitter.

He tweeted today, actually.

Well, I'll show you guys. I think if you direct a tweet to him, he'll reply, no doubt. But, um, he's less active. But the one thing that for sure, um, when he does put out a tweet uh, it moves markets. So, uh, definitely worth a follow as well. But yeah, look guys, that's it. I'm going to wrap up the session there. It's been about 45 minutes. So, um, absolutely, thank you for everyone for joining us. Um, I hope it was insightful. I hope you managed to take away at least something from, from the session about how we look at things, particularly fundamentally, to incorporate, build out around perhaps the technical ways in which you trade. Anything we can do to help, Sam, I don't know if you want to just put your email in the chat and stuff, and Alex as well. Feel free to drop those guys any questions. Absolutely always happy to help. And don't forget to subscribe to the YouTube channel. Okay guys, thank you very much, Team Amplify.

Thanks a lot.

Thanks, thank you guys. Thanks for tuning in, everyone.

Have a nice weekend.

If you're in the States, Enjoy your long weekend.

Take care, guys.

Thanks. Bye.