US Non-Farm Payrolls LIVE

to see how far we're sort of reaching out. So just in the chat, feel free to pop that in. Also guys, um, you'll notice that there is a Q&A, so any, any questions that you guys have, just pop them in there and we can go through those throughout the session. You can see, uh, today we're joined by Alex Clark, who helps me with the mentoring on the, the Professional Trader Program. We've We've got Saif and Liam as well joining us who will be more than happy to get on and doing the expected figures and whatnot. I thought we'd just start, let me just have a quick look at that chat, see where we got people from. From London, of course, Hong Kong, Russia, South Africa, fantastic little mix here.

Very hot here, it is George, very hot.

Newark, New York. Belgium, the next European and world football champions. Well, we'll see about that. England got a fair few hot prospects coming through. Um, I thought, uh, yeah, we'd start by just having a quick look over the, the expected figures. Of course, every first Friday of the month, as we know, is the, uh, the non-farm payrolls, unless there's a bank holiday before. I'm just going to drag over the calendar for you guys to the, the shared screen. Just unhighlight that. So the, the expected figure at the moment is to be a, an increase in 1, plus 1 I think Sam's dropped off there.

Let me just kind of step in, say hi, just while Sam gets himself back online. We got it. Sam lives about, well, I'd say it's probably about 400 meters from my house actually, so Looks like my internet connection's fine. But yeah, non-farm payrolls day, obviously always a big sort of— well, it's always historically been a big day in the traders' calendar. And, you know, I think this year, obviously, the numbers have been sort of made a bit ridiculous from the COVID-19 situation. In terms of the wild, wild, unprecedented swings that we've had into monstrous negative territory and then swing back into positive territory in recent months. But before Sam kind of just does his rundown, I'll just say quickly, I think that this data, the nonfarm payrolls data, generally speaking, in the long term, the data's— it's too noisy. We're going to need to see the COVID-19 stuff kind of get out of the equation. And of course, we're nowhere near there yet. So in the meantime, we're getting wild numbers that, yeah, fine, can generate some short-term market noise and volatility. But ultimately, I think investors and analysts and economists are kind of looking at these numbers and adding a massive pinch of salt to them and not particularly particularly useful necessarily. But yeah, I'll say just before Sam takes over, I'll just say, you know, it's always a difficult one, payrolls, from a trader's point of view, just in so much as Sam's got on the screen here. Just look at the sheer number of data points that are going to get released at the same time. It's like an avalanche of information that hits the screen all at the same time. Whilst of course we talk about nonfarm payrolls and that's the headline figure, there's so much that goes underneath that when thinking about wage growth and unemployment rates and thinking about the private sector versus public sector and looking at the manufacturing side of things and so on. So there's a huge amount of information. Some of this info will be conflicting. So typically we get partly the information is positive or let's just say better than expected, but then other pieces of info can be worse than expected. And the problem with that is, of course, well, what, what, what information is more important than others? And then, you know, what's going to be the overriding response from the market? Is it going to be that the positive stuff is, is more important and so market is going to react positively, or is it the negative stuff that's more important?

And so on.

And so it can be really tricky. And actually what you end up getting often is a lot of noise. You get a lot of two-way movement. You get a lot of violent, sort of quite chaotic price movement. And this is really dangerous. It's definitely easier to lose money trading nonfarm payrolls than it is to make money. That's not to say that you definitely shouldn't trade, although I've got friends who've been trading for 20 years like myself, and I've got friends who never trade this. At principle, they never trade nonfarm payrolls. And that's because they did analysis on 12 months' worth of nonfarm payrolls trading and they figured out that actually net-net I lose money. You know, I might make money one month, lose money the next, but actually net-net I'm down on the year trying to trade payrolls. And so they've made that conscious decision to not trade it. But then I know other traders that love payrolls. You know, very much depends on your style. Um, and but all I'm saying is you've got to be careful. You've got to wait for all the information, understand the algos are going to be on this, and so you're going to get them and the order book's going to be super thin. And so you're going to get a lot of volatility. So caution, you know, and making sure you're super tight on risk is absolutely key in these kind of events. So, um, Sam, uh, I think you're, you're back online. I was just saying you live 400 meters away from me, but, um, looks like I've got a better internet connection.

Yeah, but over to you. Yeah, unfortunately for me, they don't, uh, they don't do the fiber optic in my building, as much as I've, you know, asked and tried to persuade people just to do it for me, but no, not the case. You might have seen Anthony's Twitter, I think it was yesterday or today, really good sort of preview, pre-jobs report checklist that, well, FX Street here have done, and it could be quite useful just to compile the recent buildup in data into what we're actually expecting. As I mentioned, we're expecting 1.48, 1.6 million jobs, but certainly over the last couple of days, it's almost— now people are expecting that number to be slightly worse, despite what Donald Trump said recently, where we're expecting another huge number, which is the only caveat for maybe not expecting a little miss. Interestingly, the, uh, the Initial jobless claims, well, they actually, you can see as of yesterday, have got, they did improve, but for the numbers that are gonna be the focus of this report, they had actually been slightly worse. So the negative, so you can see the ISM Service PMI was negative, the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index was negative, and also the ADP was a big miss of expectations. That we saw on Wednesday. Private sector employment increased by 167,000 from June to July but failed to meet the, the high-expected figure. However, the revision to the previous month for ADP was massive. So like Piers was saying, you've got so many components and releases that are coming out at this time just be careful because ADP, while it was a poor number, the revision was so, so big that you might see a similar thing. So wait to hear everything before actually getting involved. The previous figure was 4.8 million, so if we were to get another few million on top of that, well, that would be pretty incredible even if you were to have a poor number. So that is something just to, to focus on and bear in mind you know, if you're looking to trade this, don't trade it until of course you, you hear, uh, everything. But yeah, ADP, which can act as a bit of a precursor for, for non-farm, uh, was suggesting that we're going to be in for a bit of a miss of the, the expected figure. Uh, also, as is the case with the recent non-farm payrolls, people are already talking about the next one. So while you can expect some volatility around this release. A lot of people's focus is already on August, uh, and whether we're going to see a real impact from the shutdowns that we saw in Florida, Texas, and how that's going to really impact the August number. Uh, quite interesting, I was having a look over from ING— let me just remove this here— then they, you know, they're talking about with respect to the number that we obviously get today, the data collection was from the week of the 12th of July. So we still— so they're saying they still expect to see an employment, you know, increase as the first part of June there was increases. It's just in the second part was where they— or the first half of July, sorry, the second half is where they started to see some losses. That's going to be factored into maybe the August number. So it's, it's, you know, the way markets obviously work is they're incredibly forward-looking, and it's almost like you could have a good number or a bad number, but it's almost like, well, hang on, what's August going to be like? And we'll talk about in a moment. I'll let Alex bring up some charts and, you know, talk about how we're almost pre-positioned going into this. You know, stocks have been up for however many days in a row and you might well get your initial volatility and people start talking about that August number. Another factor which is quite interesting, uh, is on zero ahead. Anthony did talk about, uh, this during the, um, during the briefing as well. Can't exactly find exactly where it was, but it's talking about the employment, uh, well, within the employment, uh, part component, the education levels in June and July on a yearly basis. However, that would have happened earlier this year, April times as well, so that number has got to be subtracted from the release that we're actually going to Gitt. So, yeah, a couple of things to bear in mind going into that. You know, the previous or the, the parts that kind of make up the, the actual nonfarm number has been pretty mixed. The general consensus going round over, you know, the reading reports this morning are we're actually potentially expecting a slightly worse number. Also on You may have seen it. This is the, the, the bank's expected figures. You know, the range, as you would, uh, you know, have imagined, is pretty wide from Barclays expecting a flat reading to, you know, here just on this picture, you know, DBS 3, 350, 4 million also in there. But yeah, 160, that consensus, uh, and the range is massive. So usually with data releases, it's always wise to, you know, think about that range. And the easiest trade comes when that number is above the top end or below the bottom end. Um, and, uh, of course, we'll, we'll wait to see how that actually does come in. Quick look over the charts before I do pass over to, to Alex. You can see on— I'm going to bring over the, the S&P on the daily chart here. Uh, we last night— I'll just remove the pivots there. You can see we, on the futures anyway, we filled the coronavirus gap, if you like, from the 21st of February where we got lower over that weekend. That has been filled, 3327, and the lower part of today's trading you can see is around that area as well. So that's going to be key going into the end of the week. But like Alex will go through shortly, you can see on the daily chart as well— let me just remove those pivots— 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 up days in a row leading into this release. Um, so can we get another one? Are we due a pullback? Of course it can just keep grinding higher like we've seen in in previous years, but it'll certainly be interesting to see how we close the week, not just for equities but also the dollar pairs, which, uh, Alex, I'm not sure if you want to go over anything in particular now, um, and I'll give you the, the rights to share.

Yeah, thanks, Sam. Yeah, absolutely agree. I was just counting the days from this rally in May, it was 11, so maybe it could be a repeat of that. Let me just share this. Yeah, it's just a sort of add-on to what— can you see my TradingView there? Yep. Just to add on to what Sam was saying. Yeah, so that for the week of the survey, you know, a lot of those initial jobless claims were negative. So I think looking through that, I'm certainly like in the camp where I won't trade the actual spike, the release itself. I'm quite interested in how it fits into the macro picture. So all of my sort of positions at the moment, all my ideas are structured around that ultra-loose monetary policy correlations. Stocks higher, weaker dollar, stronger commodities, gold. And is this report going to do anything to change that? Well, no. I think actually that if this report is— I was talking to Sam beforehand. Sorry to steal Sam's point, but I completely agree that Maybe the best case scenario here is like a really bad print because then, uh, monetary policy gets even looser and then these correlations get even stronger, you know, which is good for me. Um, so, but then if the data is good, I don't see the Fed, um, being any less dovish than they are at the moment. As Powell said, you know, not even thinking about thinking about raising rates, and we haven't even begun with any forward guidance. And that's— I think this is here to stay, and I don't think this report's gonna, gonna affect that. Um, if anything, a short-term pullback in equities would be really nice, you know, because I trade mainly currencies, and, um, currency markets are so correlated to these equity markets at the moment that, as you know, in the, in the reports that Sam sent out at the beginning of the week, there was these massive levels in, in, uh, cable, euro, and Aussie dollar. They're, they're so extended. Look at this. They want to pull back, but they're really struggling to pull back because they correlate to equities, and equities keep rising. So I actually need a retracement in, in equities so I can short this down a bit and then potentially go long again, especially the euro around that sort of 1.17 area. So I'm wondering maybe, and this could be a discussion, is there a bit of buy the rumor, sell the fact here? It's sort of what Sam was saying. We've been up 7— we've had 7 days worth of higher high and higher closes. And sort of, if the data is worse than expected by a huge margin, is the only way you'd probably see downside here, sort of theoretically. If the data is better than expected, then that signals that the slowdown that the initial jobless claims were signaling at the beginning of July maybe wasn't as bad as we thought. And then surely that's bullish for risk sentiment. But then if it's negative but not stupidly negative, then that's also bullish because of the sort of the government stimulus and the fiscal and monetary stimulus reactions response there from, from the Fed. And so that's also bullish. But the only thing that sort of makes this trade a little bit more tricky is the extended sort of overbought nature going into the report. So just makes it a little bit more tricky and all the more reason for me actually want to sit out. You know, I just want to sort of finish off with some friendly advice. Of course, don't feel like you have to trade this. Like I said, I'm certainly, certainly not going to trade this. I think Piers made a really interesting point that, you know, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose on those data points, but overall, net-net, it's not— it's certainly not my edge. And I might trade on a demo. Trading's a bit of a release for me, but I'd never trade it with any size. And it's more for me how it fits into that overall macro picture of my sort of how I build my trade ideas and does it change that or not. And yeah, make sure that if you are going to trade it, that it's outside of the expectations of it. If it comes in the high-low expectations, then, you know, it's probably going to be more choppy, which makes it even more challenging to trade. There'll be lots of opportunity after the spike if there is a spike. So don't obviously get caught up in the initial algo-driven spike, wait for 5-10 minutes for that first pullback, and now the pullback, if there is one, up through new highs or down through new lows in a bearish scenario. Um, yeah, that's all I really had there.

Yeah, I think just, just following on, it is, you know, when we, we talk about the, the expected figure and the market's going to move off of that, as it will do for any data release, from a medium-term point of view. And I— I think we're making this point, and I would agree that it's almost the best-case scenario for stocks is going to be a really bad number. Now, there is a possibility that we get a negative release here, and we're certainly still in the scenario of, you know, bad news is good news. And that just increases the chances of, you know, fiscal stimulus. Further monetary stimulus, uh, as well, which is good for stocks. It's almost like the worst case scenario today is a massive number, you know, like a 6 million, you know. That's almost like, hang on, well, we're doing actually better than we thought.

This fiscal stimulus I think we've, um, lost Sam there again.

Yeah, he's momentarily froze. Sorry.

All right, so while Sam's off, let me just, uh, there's a couple of questions in the chat. I'm looking to answer them as we go through. A couple interesting ones, however. There was one which said, um, could you scalp NFP as waiting 5 minutes after to clear direction? So I actually misread that question. I kind of read that as Do you recommend waiting 5 minutes before trading the NFP? I'm gonna go with the way I first interpreted that. My answer would be absolutely yes. You know, there is literally no reason you need to be trading the first couple minutes of that event. Think about it. If the data is significant and it's market impactful, then that is going to result in long-term volatility in cross-assets. That's in the dollar, the equities, the bond markets, etc. So if you need to be trading that 1 or 2 minutes, well, there's going to be extended, less volatile, more liquid, um, opportunities coming up further down the line. Now, if you feel like there's not going to be an opportunity in 5 minutes, well, that means the data was in line. You shouldn't be trading anyway. So there is no scenario in which I feel like anybody who is new to the markets— and when I say new, I mean a few years at the minimum with experience trading data— you would ever need to trade the first 5 minutes. Um, and in terms of scalping, I'd also be careful, um, who was mentioning this. Scalping in this sort of market can be very, very difficult. And I don't know what you're trading through, if it's a CFD, if it's spread better, so futures. Remember, if you're scalping, you're trying to take 4, 5, 6 ticks from the market and you've got a spread which is blown out by 3 ticks. The market needs to move once and you're taking a loss. Um, so scalping in this event, again, within the first few minutes is definitely not advisable either. Anyway, it looks like Sam is alive again. I'm gonna just yield to Sam.

Thanks, but yeah, no, this, you know, carrying on from what, what Saif has said there, this, you know, you don't have to trade this, uh, event. It's one that, uh, you know, very experienced traders will, will leave alone. They won't get involved, uh, until you know, the dust has settled. I mean, in my 5, nearly 6 years of trading, I very rarely, you know, look to get involved in that first initial spike. It'd be wait to hear all the numbers, the revisions, see how the land lies, and then make a decision on that as well. Uh, the usual correlations in play, you know, if we're gonna get some dollar strength, and you could expect that from, you know, really good number, you'd expect gold to come under some pressure, you'd expect equities to come down, the dollar pairs to strengthen, uh, as well. It's, it's going to be a tricky one though, because if we are to get, you know, a good number and you see equities spike higher and you get risk on following that, that currency play just becomes all that more tricky. So for me, the cleanest trade is probably going to be in gold off of this. So yeah, a strong number, uh, and then we could see, you know, also some risk-on as maybe the situation isn't as bad as we expect. That would see gold come lower. A bad number, you know, closer to zero or a negative release, you'd expect gold to make new highs for, well, all time, but also of course the, the week as well. Just marking up a couple levels here for gold. And I like to sort of use these as lines in the sand. Certainly on the futures, you can see 2073 was, was a pretty good place. You can see it was support and resistance, uh, above there. You'd imagine it becomes a bit cleaner to get involved towards that, uh, high of the day. Whereas if we are to see a put, a really, you know, strong number getting a break of that low, uh, of the day or yesterday's low and the S1 today could see a bit of a downtick, uh, as well. Um, so yeah, I reckon the cleanest move is going to come in gold and T-notes. Equities is going to be tricky. Just be careful of that knee-jerk reaction. A good number should see equities go higher, but if it's really good, you know, that could be overall bad news and we see equities price come lower as the need for fiscal monetary stimulus goes away. Whereas if we have a bad number, we might see that knee-jerk reaction to the downside for equities. But on the flip side, the need for that fiscal stimulus to come sooner and more monetary stimulus as well means equities could go higher. So easier trade for me today would be focusing on, on gold, then maybe the dollar pairs, before even thinking about equities as well. Guys, do you want to add anything before I just get the, the squawk turned on?

There's a question in the chat about the euro dollar and a trend line, Alex, which might be really—

yeah, I could completely cover that. Yeah, so if it gets too close, just, um, just let me know. Yep, so that huge trend line in the euro monster trend line there. So we tested it last month, and now we're testing it again. Also, this sort of area, it's a giant area, especially intraday, back from 2010 around this 19 handle. I think in order to see this next push-up, you're going to need to— because this is a reflation trade, you're going to want to see the yield curve steepen in America. Currently, yield curve's flattening, and that's because of a lot of these fast data points in America. And so if that starts to pick up, if it— especially in this unemployment could feed into that. Yield curves start to steepen. And I think after a pullback, once we've sort of worked off our overbought condition here, yeah, we could definitely break this trend line. And it's such an enormous trend line. If we break this trend line, especially with the euro dollar correlated to the risk sentiment, if risk sentiment keeps getting better and better and better, we're going 1.25 in the euro, yeah, over the next sort of 6 months. 2 quarters, maybe 3 quarters. And actually, probably faster than that at current rates. So we'll just see. We're going to consolidate here for a while, for sure. Hopefully pull back a bit, load up around 1.17, 1.16. And then hopefully we can start putting the pressure back on 1.19, 1.20. And if you remember Macron's rally back here, we managed to get all the way to 1.25 on Macron's rally. And I think actually I'm more bullish now than I was back then. But obviously I can change my mind, sort of. I'm not fixed on this idea. I change when the facts change. And so that's my sort of thesis on that in a nutshell. And, um, and yeah, so keep an eye on that yield curve, I would say.

Yeah, thank you, Alex. We have just, uh, under 2 minutes, uh, until the release. So let's just go over those expected figures Yet again, the expected figure for the non-farm payroll coming in at 1.6 million. The unemployment rate looking to downtick to 10.6%. Previous was 11.1%. You've also got the average hourly earnings expected to come in at -0.5% from a previous -1.2%. So, you know, from an employment standpoint, it is looking like it's, you know, getting better and going in the right direction. An uptick in unemployment would be pretty heartbreaking for the US to see that. The non-farm payrolls numbers, of course, when you look at this on the Max chart now on the US and Canadian jobs reports, on these, the headline—

like this—

payrolls forecast at 1.6 million. Moving on to the unemployment rate, revisions, the headline earnings, labor participation rates. I'll then cover the Canadian reports and go through some of the components of the US reports.

Cool. Yeah, you might have heard the squawk there. I'll leave that running, uh, as well. 1.6 million expected. The unemployment rate looked to— looking to, to downtick. Focus not really on the hourly earnings.

30 seconds.

30 seconds, guys.

I'm going to leave the chart up for, for gold.

A little bit jumpy.

Guys, with this as well, 10 seconds. Now don't feel like you need to jump in straight away.

One spot, 763 million. That's one spot, 763 million. The unemployment rate is 10 spot 2%. The Prime Minister revised to 4.791 million. Earnings month on month is 0.2%, year on year 4.8%. Workweek hours at 34.5. Labor force participation rate 61.4%. For Canada, that's 4.185. Unemployment rate 10.9%. Full-time, part-time breakdown is 73.2% and 3.45% respectively. Participation rate 64.3%. Still look out for CAD wages. And in terms of the private breakdown, that's 1.4% 4.62 million. Manufacturing is 26. Government at 301.

Yeah, so just, just going off that, you're seeing a bit of dollar strength, not massively, guys. So this is that scenario where I would say for any follow-through, 5-minute closes is what you're going to want to see. So for example, gold has gone down to the level we marked up of yesterday's low. For that to continue, you're going to want the 5-minute close below there. And also, you know, that coming in a slight beat of expectations, you can say, well, you know, a lot of the talk was about maybe that number being worse, so that's good. Unemployment back to 10.2, you know, so that's, that's also good as well. Is it a groundbreaking release in terms of what we expected? No. So really and truly, for the best opportunity, you do want it to be wildly better or worse. And it's pretty much in line. I know obviously a difference of, uh, 160,000 is quite a lot of jobs, but over the last couple of months, that's, that's really, you know, not too, too bad there. So what would I expect from gold? Well, I would say the initial reaction could well be the low, to be honest. I think you, you've obviously got a test of a key area where people would have taken profit on that fast money move because of what we saw from that level yesterday. So for there to be a continuation, the sellers are going to want to see something. The sellers will want to see price come back to the low and close below, you know, where is that 5-minute close going to be? Uh, also on the flip side, if we're to get back above the pivot, back above the trend line, well suddenly, you know, the, the way this data is interpreted is that actually it's not really that good. And it's going to be business as usual. And business as usual means what for gold? That we continue to, to go higher. It wasn't a ballpark figure that, you know, gets people worrying about, you know, the, the fiscal and monetary side is, is going to be pushed, you know, you know, back. We don't need that. It's kind of business as usual. And, and for me, I think we might just see a continuation now for the next The S&P, you can see, goes higher off that because it's that knee-jerk reaction. It's okay. The way to look at this now is you've got the, the double top really from overnight yesterday, uh, and the Asian session. We're testing that now. This is another example where the 5-minute close is going to be important. Do we close above it, and that can lead to that continuation higher, or do we reject it and we start to, to move down a bit as well. So keep a watch on that for all equities as well. Gary on YouTube saying fade the spikes sometimes is not a bad option. I would absolutely now wait for a couple of moments. Uh, the euro, look at that, exactly where it was. The indecision there right now is what we were saying before, in that a good move higher in equities can now be perceived as risk-on, which leads to weakness in the dollar, and again currencies go higher. It's confusing. I would wait to see how the dust settles here. You can see gold already reversing that, and it's that business as usual kind of feel to market. Above the trend line and above 2073.5, this market will go higher. Alex, anything you— or say Liam, anything you want to add?

Yeah, I'll just quickly jump in and then I'll hand it over. Yeah, so stocks, yeah, as you said, straight up into yesterday's high. And initially, major currencies, they sort of dipped initially on dollar strength. But as stocks really started to extend a bit further, currencies followed it. That correlation is still super strong. Yield on the 10-year sort of moved higher initially, but is sort of unchanged now. But it's all— for me, being like FX trader, it's all about this correlation. And like you said, it is a little bit difficult, but that's just— that's the reality of it. And, um, it's going to be— I know also it's, um, you remember the initial jobless claims from the period of when the survey was taken, first couple of weeks of July, on the initial jobless claims were higher But this report coming out better than expected on both the nonfarm and on the unemployment rate means that this is actually stronger, even stronger. It's even stronger because initial jobless claims and that was saying that it was going to be— suggested it was going to be worse, and actually it's better, right? And so, and since then, initial jobless claims and high-frequency data has got even better. So yeah, I think— but then how much of this was already priced in, you know? I think like you said, it'd be interesting to, um, see. I'm watching to see how today closes. That's what I'm quite interested in. I probably think you're quite brave to be looking at sort of fading spikes.

Um, but yeah, I, I think, just to interrupt there, it is massively, massively important to see how we close this week and And, and why? Well, let's just have a quick look at the charts. You've got— we'll go through the euro, the pound, and the Aussie on the weekly. Now, here on the euro, what we've just done is we've double topped last week, okay? We, we close a tiny bit lower. That's not looking too good. You've got the pound has done the same thing in that we, we came to test not only this massive weekly trend line going back to 2018 but also the high of last week, also to the tick, pretty much the, the 9th of March, that week, that high. We've rejected that. The Aussie, which, yes, it's following the S&P slightly a bit more, but that's currently below last week's high. That's currently below the 15th of April week as well. So do we get a final push into the back end of the week? Maybe equities ramp higher, this brings the dollar pairs higher, and you know what, next week looks bullish. Or do we drift lower into the close of the week? We've rejected those, uh, highs from the previous 5 days, and actually we start to see a drift lower. It's, it's going to be a fascinating close to the week, uh, for, for these markets. I mean, equities, you know, at the moment are obviously quite key for those dollar pairs, which is what Alex is saying here. For gold, I mean, look at that indecision. And this is the beauty— this is a great lesson, guys, for, uh, the 5-minute close on a data release or a comment that's not out of the ordinary. We go to the, to the lows that absolutely would have been people who would have sold at this moment. You break the S1, you break the low of the daily itself, but there's no confirmation there. It's not a big or worse enough number that you're going to get that extended move. We then push higher. People see, you know, the market pushing on, they decide to buy. We then reject the trend line, we reject the pivot, and we're back where we are. So 5-minute close is massively important for that confirmation when there might not be a massive surprise. The S&P comes up today, comes up to high of yesterday, hits it to the tick. There would have been people there buying, expecting a breakout. No 5-minute close, we drift down, and really and truly we're pretty much where we were. Euro, uh, uh, as well, you can see same sort of thing. Breaks for a new low of the day, people would have sold, but no 5-minute close for that confirmation. We then get above the, the S1 previous highs. I mean, it's choppy around there, but again, no close as well. So yeah, it's a good lesson to witness firsthand. If there's no real surprise from the number or a comment that comes out, wait for more confirmation, uh, before looking for, for any further move. Um, also worth having a look at silver. Of course, I don't think my— the data on this particular chart goes all the way back, but you can see if we just bring in the, the daily chart here I mean, it's just insane, uh, how that has been pushing on. And of course, the, the high of last week, 28th of July, was those lows from 2013, if you remember. So do we finish above that? That's going to be your key line in the sand for silver. I know, and fantastically well called, sort of $26 and then $28. We also got to $30 this morning for silver, um, so So yeah, it'd be interesting to see how that holds out. Any questions, guys? Please do get them in the chat and myself and the team can go through those. And guys, if you do have anything you do want to add, please feel free to just to interrupt me. I'm just gonna have a quick look over some of the—

Tom, I'm just gonna cut into you real quick. There was a person who asked earlier if we could cover gold. We've more or less done that, but just to kind of bring back Will DeLucy and Ant did a video a little while ago. It's still very much relevant. They've got a target of $2,500 for gold, and they go through the reasons for it. I'm going to drop that in the chat now, see if that YouTube video— but look, I think we can all— I think we're all of the mind that there is very little— gold is bullish for whether it's yields going lower, whether it's hedging against every other currency that's currently printing. Whether it's FOMO, and now we've got all-time highs in every currency. You can take your pick. The only downside to gold will be if we get this second wave and maybe some dollar strength comes in. But even that's starting to wave away because you've seen a lot of flows go into the Swissie, into the yen, which maybe indicates that maybe it's not a safe haven anymore because most of the COVID cases are in the US.

Yeah, no, thank you. And yeah, pop that link in the chat, really. Good interview, uh, and chat between Will and, uh, and Anna. And anyone that knows Will will know that he's been bullish gold since, uh, since he came out the womb. So he's, uh, very happy to see the prices where they are. Um, for gold right now, intraday, these would be the levels that I'm looking at. I'm just putting on to 15-minute. You can see this is that support zone that we talked about. What we're seeing now, we're just trying to get above this potential trend line and also this line in the sand that you saw me talking about, 2073, 2074. Above there, and it's that business as usual, it's the continuation. Another question on YouTube was, you know, where is the correction point where could be the support point for gold? Well, we haven't retested it yet, but you can see here, one high, two high, free for what happens when we come back here. It's also the futures $2,000 handle. At some point, it's likely that we can drift lower towards there. Maybe not right now, and certainly not today anyway, but that would be an obvious place where people would look to maybe re-add to this position, or they're happy to stay long as long as we stay above that $2,000 handle. But yeah, gold is doing, uh, its, its usual thing in reversing a news headline. The close of that 5-minute candle, not enough to make you want to get in, but certainly one to keep a watch on there. Let's have a quick look over the S&P as well. Has it threatened that high? No, it hasn't. And it's almost that fade of the, the spike has worked both directions for gold and the S&P, which is almost coming back to to where it was. I talked about the, the closes of the week on the, the currency pairs. And just while I see if there is any other questions, for the S&P it's also really important. Now let me just mark up those levels on the daily, because on the weekly what we saw last week was we've struggled to get above the high of the 8th of June. Which you can see I'm just marking up as an X. 1, 2, and also this time 5 days, 7 days ago, we were below 32.20. We pushed higher, and that's led to, you know, this increased, uh, buying, uh, that we're witnessing now. And we're then above that gap fill. So you can see the low of that 21st of Feb. If we close above there I would say by Wednesday we're all-time highs. Now if we reverse— and of course in 45 minutes you've got the US cash open— and we actually finish below 3325, that's when people then start talking about maybe a drift back down towards 3231 before that next level high. And these are the importance of the weekly closes. It can tell you so much information. And the above or below on this area is really a case of how I'm going to be looking to trade it from Sunday evening. Above, I'm bullish, new all-time highs within a couple of sessions, obviously headline dependent. Uh, below, I'd expect a bit of a drift down to then get in some more buyers, uh, as well to, to bring in.

Um, there's a question for you, um, Sam. Is there a point in which you take some profit off your personal S&P holdings, your dollar cost average, into perhaps moving into some cash ready for a correction around election time, would this have a confluence with your longer-term trades? So election time being the key thing there.

Yeah, yeah.

I mean, the election's an interesting one. Yeah. And we are talking about this with Anthony yesterday. And you know what, I'm still along with Anthony, and we have never changed this view, that we're of the view that Trump wins and Trump's baby is the stock market, and that keeps going higher with him. Promising to do this, that, and the other. But that's the key point, is Biden will also promise to do this, that, and the other. It's just when they actually get into power, do they then fulfill these promises and all this money that they're chucking at the market? So that's a bit of an issue for sure. I mean, I, I'm still long from, from a fair while ago, you know, on this day, on the 14th of May. I don't think we see that again anytime soon. So for me, it's— I'm now only really looking to maybe add to these positions. A correction, another move lower is exciting for me because I think it's a great opportunity to continue to buy. We're— and it's like Anthony's been saying in every briefing, it's sort of the perfect storm really. Uh, if we had a bad number today, well, what's everyone's thoughts is what the Fed gonna buy now? What's this fiscal stimulus going to be? And both things are great for the equity market. We know the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the Dow aren't a true reflection of the economy, but the equity markets are what they are. And in my opinion, I, I think we can keep going higher for a couple of years, to be honest. I don't think personally I, I will get stopped out on this trade. I think be more I come out by taking profit.

Will I de-risk ahead of the, um, election?

No, but I won't necessarily like add to it maybe in the weeks leading up to it. I hope that, uh, that makes a bit of sense. Gary, you think Trump walks it? I do as well. I don't think the markets are pricing in Biden. I know there are reports that even if he does get in, it's still positive for stocks to an extent, especially if they get the House. But yeah, I don't think the markets are really waking up to, to the possibility that Biden could— a quick look at gold there, you can see now it's really trying. And this is the, the beauty of this. I mean, this is a 15-minute, but you can see obviously, you know, we've got that trend line that's coming into play and we're trying to get the break. But you can just see the importance of this level here. This is, you know, going to be key for gold. Resistance, resistance turns to support turns to resistance again. The market is clearly looking at this level like it was looking at this area of support here. So gold's got a decision to make coming up. What we got, you know, not too long until that 15-minute close. So we're testing it now. You'd expect a bit of profit taking here, but if we can close above that, you, you'd say we get a new high for the week, uh, not long after.

Any other questions?

Let me just have a quick look in the chat.

Sam, if I could just add something I saw a couple people discuss in the room. There's a lot of talks of, you know, market movements 5-10 minutes before the data. That's a rabbit hole you don't want to go down. You don't want to be thinking, you know, the euro-dollar is going down a little bit, gold is going down a little bit, it's on the low of the day coming into this data set. The fact of the matter is me, you, us, and prop traders in general are such a small entity in the market, right? If you took— I couldn't, I couldn't give you numbers, but if you took a large quantity of some of the prop traders in the UK and put them up against one small hedge fund in the States, you would see that their assets under management would be much larger than what you're seeing in proprietary traders, right? That's the advantage of proprietary trading. You're trading in small size, which gives you fast convenient execution. Okay, so when you're talking about pre-news, pre-data movements, this is typically as a result of hedge funds either hedging their positions, despite the fact that's not what hedge funds' main priority is. It's investment banks trading out of risk. It's people pre-positioning. It's people who are using the market in a variety of different ways. Okay, let's say you're long gold, we're coming into data, and you've got I don't know, $20 million of your $1 billion position in gold still remaining, you're thinking, you know what, I want to get out. You'll take that trade off in a heartbeat. You may drop the market 0.2, 0.3%, something along those lines. Now for a prop trader, that's a big move. But in actuality, for them, a 0.3, 0.4% move is irrelevant.

Right?

So there's low liquidity, people are exiting the trades, the order book is getting thin, people are pre-positioning, people are exiting trades, people are hedging. Pre-economic data, um, movements, don't read too much into it. If anything, it's going to be quite dangerous. And, you know, I think what Sam and Alex and Liam were saying was really important. Look for confirmation after, once you know what you want to be gauging, what the market's doing when volume is increasing, not when volume is decreasing. And the further you go out from the data, the more volume there is, more participants around. So yeah, just be very careful going down that rabbit hole of looking at— apart from UK data, which we all know is a little bit corrupted. And it does quite a lot. Um, that would be my advice. Don't go down that rabbit hole. It's dangerous. It'll probably give you a false sense of security. The worst thing that can happen is you think the dollar's going up because you, you see the dollar strengthening, gold is going down, major FX is going down. Then data comes out, dollar does go up, so gold continues to go, FX goes down. Then you think, oh well, look, this is the pattern we saw last time. And I'm seeing it again coming into this data, so I'm going to now pre-position. You enter into a market which is illiquid, get caught on the wrong side of the trade, and then yeah, you know what the result of that is. So yeah, don't— follow the 5-minute close rule that Sam regularly talks about. It's very important. I'll give you much better understanding. All right, that was all for me.

Yeah, no, thanks, Dave.

Yeah, it's— it can be so key, and you know, timing, time of the day is vital. For trading, as we know. Just having a look at gold here, it's now— I mean, it didn't close above, but it's had another little test. So yeah, we'll see what happens over the next 5-10 minutes. Do we get that little confirmation that this now area was broken and the buyers are in control or not? But here, great, you know, just going on from that great example of waiting for that confirmation before getting in. And unfortunately there would have been people that sold on these lows on the euro, bought the S&P on the high, only to see it reverse. Whereas if you have that 5-minute close, that extra confirmation, there's no trade. Or, you know, if you're really brave, obviously you fade it. Um, but yeah, it'll be interesting to see how that pans out, not just for today but for the week. And, and as mentioned, we've got so many key levels in the FX space that are going to set up quite nicely for, um, the next week as well. Um, June, hi Sam, could you explain how to look for 5-minute candle close confirmation? Well, yeah, absolutely. Let's just take, you know, gold. Up the key.

Am I back?

Yeah.

Okay, sorry, I'll be marking up the key levels, June, uh, of where if price comes to, I could expect there to be a reaction.

So just quickly here for gold, it would be, well, the buyers come in you know, the sellers come in, they have before, why can't they do so again? Trend lines, moving averages, whatever else you want to put on is fine. And then the data is going to come out. And what time is this now? So this is 1 o'clock, so I'm not looking to get into a trade, as we know. And I've got my levels marked on. Here is now the— it's 1:25, 1:20, 1:30 comes the data release. So the— in this case, the pink lines, for there to be confirmation that they're broken, the 5-minute close is enough for me. 5-minute comes out, you can see, yes, it, it goes below, but we close all the way back up. Rejection, failed false break. And everyone knows, or you can, you can learn now, a false break is always a good indication of reversal. Um, so yeah, that, that would be how I'd go about it, is my analysis is done way before the actual release comes out, and I've marked up those levels. So with these highs that we're seeing here, that line in the sand, as we come up and test it again, I wouldn't be buying yet. It'd be, I want to see that confirmation, which we might start to get now, but we're still knocking on that door. Still this line in the sand, this area of resistance.

While I would say it's likely to break, and I go to 15 minutes, or if it was you know, the very low volume period of, of the day, then it might be I look for a 60-minute close. But non-farm payrolls, volumes at its highest, you know, give or take. Uh, the data was slightly out of line, okay, but not, not too surprising. So 5-minute close is what I'd be looking for. So hopefully that, that helps you there. Yeah, just, uh, any final questions, guys, before, before we look to, to wrap it? Let me know. No worries, Puff. I hope that helps. Uh, just got a question on YouTube. Can you talk about your, your personal broker? So we at Amplify use RJ O'Brien. We've been with them for, uh, 10 years— well, actually 2009, 11 years, uh, since Amplify was founded in 2009. So they're a futures broker and we, we use them. RJ O'Brien, uh, Matt. But just before I just have a quick look to see if there is any, uh, questions, I think there's some in the Q&A that I'll have a little look at. Uh, you can see on gold it's, it's doing Not to say that's now the high, but you can see the importance again of just marking these levels up. People take profit. Why do they take profit? Because the rest of the market is also looking at these points where price has previously come down from, and you're just seeing a bit of an unwind there as well. Um, let me have a quick look.

Um, so I had some—

I had some stuff here to share, if that's all right, just Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I'm gonna go into the Q&A now and just type some answers, guys.

Okay, brilliant. I just think it'd be sort of— just do some housework for a couple of minutes and talk about, uh, the programs that we do. Um, here we collected some statistics from a, um, from a, from a sample set that we did with a group of traders that are currently with us. Now this sample set's incomplete, it's only for a few week period, but it was a sample set between sort of pilots and a group of non-pilots. But forgetting that, you can see here that the— working with these guys since we came onto the Zoom program versus when we was in the office, you can see that out of— it's quite a small sample set of people, but here we had 100% of our pilots were profitable over this period of time, and actually above 60% of our non-pilots were profitable over this period of time. And you know, I think that's due to— I think this is due to the way that we're sort of doing this on Zoom at the moment, where we can really sort of get involved with, um, get involved with it, get involved with you, uh, sort of on a really one-to-one basis and try and tailor, um, our mentorship to the— to your individual. It's a lot less— sometimes gets a bit crowded in the office and whatnot. And that's what I think this is, uh, due to. And, you know, there's also a quick lesson here about the over— the pitfalls of overtrading. This trader here in the red was an overtrader. You can see that on average out of our sample set, our average trades per person for the people that were above zero was 5. And, uh, overtrader was, was above 25. And so therefore overtrading equals death. And I've seen that with my own eyes many times. And you can also see a really interesting correlation here between the amount of time you spend in a winning trade versus the amount of time you spend in a losing trade and your average P&L. How interesting is that? And so I'm not going to do a, a massive a massive kind of thing here, but I just thought it'd be interesting just to share that, share that with you. And, you know, we take a lot of pride in sort of working one-to-one with you. Sorry, Liam, did you want to come in and say something?

Yeah, no, no, I was just gonna— I was gonna let you finish, but, uh, yeah, on that note, I suppose that's, you know, you've kind of done the— that's kind of an example of the professional program. Obviously we run a bunch of programs, and I don't want to get into it today, but what we're going to do is after this webinar For all of you attending, we will send you an email with a kind of a video recap of what was going on. I'll give you instructions as to how you can rewatch this webinar if you wish to watch it. And we'll also leave links at the bottom of the email if you wish to, you know, if you want to know more about the program or the way you kind of got a feel today for what we're about and the different styles of trading and the different kind of analysis we apply. If you'd like to learn more about that, whether it's an online program or some of our kind of live training I'll leave links, the appropriate links, in the, in the email, and please feel free to book a call with any of us, and we're happy to help and tell you more about what we do at Amplify. And if you're a student, I'll also leave one of my colleague Charlie's calendar calls. So if you are, let's say, just graduating or in the middle of university and you're looking for perhaps a career in finance and not just trading, and where we run an internship every summer, we're on the second group of interns about to finish off And yeah, no, we— Charlie would be happy to walk that through, and you can, you can chat about that, chat about the trading program, and see what, you know, what program will be best fit for you.

Now I'll pause at that.

Awesome, thank you. Yeah, now guys, uh, on, on via Zoom, I've answered some of those questions in, in the Q&A. So yeah, I will, uh, I will do the video on Sunday having a look at some of the levels. And there's a question on, on YouTube from Dylan, uh, a current bias for the euro. Taken into consideration, uh, so the non-farm release. I think it's, you know, there's ultimately a lot of confusion with euro. I'm just gonna share my screen in, in reaction to that number. For me, it's all about the weekly close, but also, and if anyone watched my video on Sunday— when, what was Monday? The date on Monday was the 3rd, wasn't it? So I was talking on Monday with some of the traders just about how this area here is going to be very key for the bulls and the bears, who's going to win it, you know, bearish below, bullish above. Now we, we came to test that on, on Tuesday. We then eventually broke above it yesterday, but you can see every time we come here, just so significant, and we tested it again yesterday. And look what happened— sorry, almost tested again yesterday. Wednesday we tested it, but look where the low of the day was, right on that point. So below there, I would be saying— and the week, but also maybe an hour close as well— I'll be saying you're likely to see a bit of a drift down. Um, and also maybe a potential trend line could come in play there as well, uh, a bit of a drift lower towards the S2. Around some of these lows that we saw on the 4th. On the flip side, and I would be happy to be late to the party, if we do get a bit of a push higher, if we can get back above another very— I mean, look how technical this market is, fantastic— we can get back above 1.1872, you know, I would, would say you're likely to then get another leg to the upside. So, uh, for me, the bias of the euro Euro right now is unsure, and it's almost like in this circled area I would leave it alone. I'd be involved in a long here, I'd be involved in a short below. What happens in between there, I'm not too interested, uh, to, to be honest. You, you'd argue if gold can make a push through these highs, euro's likely to follow it, uh, whereas if gold starts to drift low, we get a bit of dollar strength maybe to come in on that correlation, then euro might have to start drifting down. But that confusion at the moment means I wouldn't want to be in a trade, uh, right now for that. Let's have a quick look, see if there is any other questions. Guys, do you want to add anything before we look to wrap it?

It's all been very well covered by you, Sam, there, so no for me.

Okay guys, well look, thank you very much for as usual joining us. It's been, uh, been a pleasure to witness history again with such a big number. I haven't actually seen Donald Trump tweet yet, so that'd be one to keep an eye on. I'm sure he'll be gloating about it. I'm sure he'll say, 'I told you so.' Whether he knew or not, I'm not sure that's too legal if he did. But thank you very much for joining us. The recording of this session will be on YouTube shortly, so any questions in the follow-up, please put them in the comments. Uh, so like and subscribe and share, and feel free to, to catch up with us, whether it be on YouTube or Twitter, uh, or via Liam, who's put his contact details in the chat as well. So thank you very much. So thanks for me—

thanks, guys.

Thanks guys, enjoy the weekend.

Enjoy the sun. Take care guys.

Bye-bye.