Weekly Crypto Outlook: 28th June - 2nd July 2021

Hey folks, welcome to Monday the 28th of June 2021. Just day one back from a nice break to be with my newborn son PJ, so we're all doing great and thanks for all the well wishes. So without further ado, I'm going to get on to these crypto charts. And we have had a really miserable, probably 2 weeks, I would say, really punctuated to start off with Elon's sort of commentary and interference with the markets. But really the main, the main things, themes that we need to be aware of in the marketplace are last week, you know, we had Chinese authorities clamping down quite hard on mining activities. There were videos and pictures all over Twitter and YouTube on mining operations with thousands of GPUs at work in the markets, taking them offline, taking them off racks, shipping them out. I literally saw guys with shovels and buckets loading CPUs into, into trucks and trailers. And of course, a little, little known thing there is that these GPUs and whatnot are not licensed to be used in other territories. The ones that are used in mainland China and the power ratings and whatnot and the safety ratings on these GPU units is, is not legal, street legal, I think, for European regulations or for your US regulations. So, you know, when it comes to the question of where are these miners going to go, I think it's not a big deal. I think they're going to go offshore China, you know, they could go to Vietnam, Taiwan, lots of different places. So actually, to look back on what happened there with Chinese regulation clamping down, You're really just going to see a migration of that mining activity from mainland China to other territories. And I actually see it as a bullish story, but not in the short term, uh, definitely in the medium term, being a 3 to 6 month view. And of course, the longer term view is kind of probably the 6 months to, uh, to— from 6 months or a year onwards, right? So Really, you know, I think that's quite a bullish thing for the longer-term bag holders, if you like. What else we can look at in the major themes within the market? And we can look at really the biggest story at the moment being that we of course have the UK financial regulator, the FCA, coming in as of yesterday and talking about— they put on, um, they put on, uh, basically I think, uh, some warrants, uh, towards Binance. Essentially they've ordered Binance, uh, Limited, um, to stop, uh, stop the regulated activities in the UK. Now what this means is, um, it actually means that Binance are essentially a broker and an exchange at the same time. There are lots of brokers and exchanges in the markets, especially in the CFD markets in the UK. They are registered offshore in places like Malta, for example. But Binance, the, the division of Binance, it's, it's quite a separated company and siloed company. And the division that the FCA have put these orders against, um, is, is actually completely siloed off from the mothership, uh, which is kind of Binance Limited, uh, Singapore, I think it is. Um, so that's the one that I have an account with as well. There's binance.us, there's binance.it. I think there's quite a few. Um, so this isn't really as impactful and as negative a story as we might like to imagine for these markets. Um, you know, I'm actually looking at a lot of the major coins like Ethereum is up 15% this morning, uh, LINK is up 14%, uh, Stellar is up 12, 12.5, 12.75%. You know, it's, it's not really that negative a story, um, because essentially Binance is buffered against this sort of activity coming against them, right? It's buffered against that. But it is the UK government saying, listen, you know what, we don't think our customers and the public are well protected against some of the activities going on. Added to that, the main reasoning for this action against Binance is, of course, to do with MiFID II financial regulations. Now, MiFID II financial regulations are really in place to clamp down on two things: anti-money— sorry, well, anti-terrorism financing and then money laundering. Okay, so these two activities, these are the, you know, main activities: AML, anti-money laundering, and anti-terrorist funding, right? And so the UK regulators come in and said, you know what, we think there's quite a lot of that going on in Binance, right? And they regularly do this with a lot of licensed exchanges and brokers So if you're a money manager, you kind of have to be a MiFID II certified and take a course. I've taken the course in the past, um, where you have to kind of know your customer, all these sorts of things, right? And so this isn't really that big a deal, but of course it does make a terrible headline for Binance. And so here we are. So let's go across the charts and have a look at what really I make out of these. Because I don't really see it being as terrible for Binance or for the markets as people may, may get out to be. So let's just go to the main coins first. We'll cover Bitcoin— excuse me— and Ethereum. I'll just take some coffee before my throat shuts down. All right, so here we are on Bitcoin. Now I'm not actually I don't actually have my current price line on here, which is a little bit disconcerting. Or I do. So current price, I think for me, current price at the moment, I just have to check on my connection, but it should be in and around the 33s. Just let me check that. Just check that on Binance. Bitcoin USD. Okay, and USDT. Okay, so here you go. I'll actually bring this chart in. Uh, we're trading 34,850s, 34,850. So I should actually have that, uh, here. But irregardless, these are daily bars, okay? So I don't really want to get down to the minutia of, uh, 60-minute bars on this because, you know, we really need to take a broad view with these markets. So, um, yeah, I think, look, I've been saying it all along, I think $20,000 is where we need to get to to pick up the real buyers in this market and then get back on up here for, you know, $100,000, for example. So, you know, every commentator on Bitcoin in the market now seems to talk about Wyckoff distributions and accumulation. Well, You know, if enough people talk about something in the market and use a tool in the market, well, guess what? That tool becomes all-important and all-prevalent. I often say that, you know, if Warren Buffett said that he makes his investment decisions by how sheep wakes up in the morning, you would suddenly see a spike in the price of sheep, you know, because people would just— well, for want of a better pun, people would flock to that. As, as a signal generator, right? Because they, you know, it's Warren Buffett, right? So a couple of the technical, uh, analysts who are quite prominent on YouTube have, uh, been explaining, uh, Wyckoff distributions and what they look like and how you should trade them. And so therefore you actually do see a huge, uh, Wyckoff accumulation phase here, um, coming up into distribution Uh, this is a bit of a fluff here. This is, um, this is then accumulation for distribution again here. Bear flag accumulation for distribution. And now we're coming back in here, accumulation for distribution, possibly on the upside. So yeah, I do see a push to 46s, but I don't think that can distribute back down to 20s at some time. So for me, it's— look, I'm just going to wait and see how this trades. I don't actually own any Bitcoin now, um, I'm just way deep in DeFi. So where is the price going? It's very hard to say at the moment, but for me I would say we have support on the 31,427s and we have resistance on 46s. So really that range I think will play out over the next probably month to bring us into start of August. So that's Bitcoin. I don't want to harp on about it too much, but certainly the rhetoric I'm seeing in the media is that, you know what, maybe Bitcoin is a little too useless. Maybe we like Ethereum, maybe we like the smarter contract and the networking abilities, the DeFi appeal of something like Ethereum. So that brings us on to Ethereum, and here we are. So And I definitely do see major buying support at $13.57, spot 30. That was indeed the high from— actually, I don't have the dates available back here, but you can see really good level to be involved at for here. And selling down, um, back at this point was really well, well supported to come back up. But unfortunately, you know, you do see this pennant structure Let me just show you this here. This type of pennant structure thing happens all of the time, and we do exit the way we come in. And so, you know, at this point here, we did exit the way we came in. So we came into it from the downside. Well, this is all actually earmarked by the bear flag that we had up here, and this was the actual pullback point here. Very easy trading, to be honest, to short that thing there. On the bear flag formation, traded down into— well, pick your supports. But now when it starts to consolidate here, people go, okay, yeah, yeah, it's caught in a better range here, we have support, we should trade back up to new all-time highs. Incorrect, because it's starting to accumulate in a flag— or, uh, sorry, a pennant pattern, and it will exit the way it came in to the downside. So I don't want to have a big set of drawings here um, on this chart. I want to keep it very simple. And so there's, uh, Ethereum trading 2069.8 at the moment. Uh, yeah, I mean, I haven't, I haven't changed these charts in quite a long time, uh, not certainly since I left, uh, for a break. Uh, so yeah, I think we could get higher in, in Ethereum, uh, back up to the 25s. But, you know, I'd rather really to tier in again for the buy, for the long hold. I'd rather wait for a $13.57 spot 30, uh, you know, have a limit order in there and buying it not on margin, not on leverage, or on full margin, and not buying any leverage. And, and if it does come down to the $4.95 down here for support, or, you know, let's say the $9.16s Well, you don't have to stress about that. I mean, yeah, you're taking a drawdown on your funds, but ultimately I do believe in much, much higher pricing for Ethereum, $5,000 for example, being the first major stop on the upside. Okay, moving on, Matic. Matic, not really a major coin like Ethereum or Bitcoin. However, you know, a couple of traders that I kind of collaborate with in Texas are big on MATIC. Member of the Elite Team that we work with in the UK is also big on MATIC. I've taken a little bit of this, not much, lottery ticket money to be honest, and I am looking for much higher prices. It is well supported on the range that we'd identified back here, so, you know, I do like the high spot, $78.29. This is MATIC, it's to the euro. Um, so, you know, it's the structure and the shape of the market will be the same on MATIC to USD. So you just have to put on your drawings, or, or you could easily convert these prices to dollar market prices from the euro should you wish to trade the structure. And this is not investment advice, this is educational purposes only. Uh, so yeah, I like this range in pink here. Look at the support that came in. Look at that support, what, like, uh, 10 days ago? 3, 4, 4, 6, 7 days ago, a week ago. I mean, look at that support. It does look like it has a face rip in mind, um, back up here. But, you know, remaining to be seen. I'd love to probably see this thing trade down to the 55s, the zero spot 55s, get along, and then, and then trade that thing up. Um, I don't really understand the fundamentals on MATIC as well as I do on the other products though. Um, just let me get some of these, uh, fans off here. I think it's kicking up a lot of dust in my office. And kill the one under my desk. Okay, let's have a look. Doge. Yeah, I mean, Doge, I don't know. I mean, look, I had a couple of buy points in here. You can see support did come in at this point. Um, and again, at the bottom of the range would be where I really do want to get on board with, uh, probably tiering in just another small amount of money, again sort of lottery ticket money, just, you know, a couple of hundred, maybe a couple of thousand into this, you know, and then look for some upside. Um, didn't really take too much of this off at the tops when I think we were up, uh, we're up about 2,000% on the trade. Um, you know, look, I'm not, I'm not really making a living out of trading crypto. It's more futures is my bag. And so, uh, you know, I'm not going to be putting too much attention into this day today. And so that's why I'm really trading the daily bar candles rather than trying to trade like 60-minute bars. Uh, let's look at Cardano. Uh, Cardano having a pretty decent morning. Um, something here. Yeah, it's up about 10%. Uh, we're not actually seeing that. I think my exchange is a little bit behind times right now, but Um, yeah, I think we're working the pink range here. Uh, I think a breach to the downside is going to be extremely meaningful for Cardano. But, you know, if it does, I just think it's going to be well supported. I really do. You know, it seems a lot of demand here for, for contracts on this product. And anything below this range that I've identified, right? So, you know, we're just coming into major swing buyers territory should we come down here. And probably I'm gonna put on like some moving averages on these, so next Monday you'll probably see where we sit against the moving averages on a lot of these products. Um, yeah, what else? Uh, Stellar. Yeah, I think Stellar is actually having a decent day, but it has dropped out of, of its supportive range. And so again, into this area where we do have really good demand And I think that demand, you know, well, it is trying to pick up again. So, you know, if you're long at the moment from any of these lows, it would be only prudent to take something off here around the spot €0.25 to the Stellar Lumen. Again, you know, I'm holding these things for the medium to long term, so I'm not too, too obsessed with any of this price action at this time. You know, I think we're going to be trading much higher in this product over the next 24 months. Um, so that's really it for the major coins to look at. Ripple as well, of course. Ripple, um, you know, testing the high of this consolidation range that it had been in for quite some time. I do believe the future is a lot brighter for Ripple than it was through any of this here, any of this, the they've sorted out their court case. It's looking really good future-wise for this coin. So I do see a lot of good support coming in here, and anything in this area should be bought. Essentially, that's down to spot €0.03 per coin, up to sort of spot €0.05, €0.04. So, okay, I posted in the Amplify Crypto room an article that was published on Zero Hedge, which also then had an accompanying Wharton Finance School report on DeFi space. I highly recommend going back and having a look at that. Go read the article, read the report, it's really fantastic stuff. And if you know, if you want to know a little bit more about DeFi and where it's all going, who are the major players, what are the networks, what stage are the networks at, etc., etc. All right guys and girls, if you're interested in joining us in the Futures Trading Room for live coverage of our, of our markets, what we look at really in that area is this. You've got Euro, Cable, Gold, DAX, S&P. We also look at NASDAQ once we open on the US, the Dow, S&P being the S&P 500. And that's, that's me getting stopped out of something there. And so, uh, what else? Bonds, WTI, uh, T-notes, and the Dixie. So we look at these, uh, pretty much every day, uh, from 8 AM to 10 AM. And then, uh, we cover back on again, we lead into the US session at 1 o'clock with the pre-US video, uh, covering what we expect to see throughout the upcoming session. And we also cover data events as they break, both in the Euro morning and in the US session. So, you know, we've got a really good crew, uh, we're spotting a lot of great trades here, guys and girls. So, um, yeah, it'd be great to have any newcomers, uh, along. So with that, I'm going to wrap it up for this week's edition of the, uh, Crypto Week Ahead, and I wish you all the best. And, uh, keep your, your risk well managed, guys and girls. Cheers, talk to you soon. Bye-bye.