Weekly Trading Set-ups 13th - 17th July 2020

Hi guys, good— well, good morning. I thought I'd do this early on the Sunday because of course it's the North London derby today. Um, so I just want to ask everyone that if Arsenal do win, we all let Piers Curren know about it, and if Arsenal lose, we don't let me know about it. But, uh, yeah, I thought I'd get it out the way early doors while I'm in a good mood, uh, because of course there's no guarantees that, uh, later on I'll I will be. Um, but yeah, pretty good week, uh, or end of the week for risk assets. Uh, the— you can see on my left-hand side here, I've got the DAX is how we finished on Friday, up at the highs. The S&P the same, and T-notes coming off a bit, which is quite a surprise. Um, into the close of a week, people are happy to hold risk. So how we finish there makes me pretty confident that we're going to have a good week going forward. Um, and I had a check earlier on the, the weekend markets, and I'll do it again now just to have a quick look. You know, IG, very good just for having a look to see, you know, what is being priced in for the open, uh, on Wall Street. Okay, it's down 0.05%, so flat, um, which is similar to, uh, to last week, which was the first time we hadn't gapped lower in 3 weeks. Uh, well, we had done 3 weeks prior, so I expected a good week and we got one. Not a massive one, but we got one. Um, and I, I, I do think we've already seen the lows of the month. You know, that's not a massively bold statement, but, uh, the idea is that I still think there's some upside to come. Let's have a quick look over the charts as normal though. Um, you can see Euro last week, I finished by having this, this potential trend line on just as a bit of a guide that we were getting squeezed and And you can see when, when you start, I guess, really trying to put things on that aren't there, it can get a bit messy. Yes, we had a bit of a push higher, but really this market is, is still, you know, stuck within these little ranges. Really strong level of resistance, um, which we've, we've had marked up for so long before that, uh, you can see the market is just paying so much attention to it here. You know, it's a really good level um, that I would continue to have on. Also, to the downside, our kind of line in the sand area of support held well, not only Friday but also on the 7th and the 8th, which would be Tuesday and Wednesday. So good, uh, good area there. I guess looking at that then, you know, 112.80 below there, then we are looking back— I mean, I, you know, looking at that level Uh, you've got to be, you know, pretty confident, uh, that that could be the low for now. The reactions we've had from there have been, been pretty good. Uh, so the buyers in control for now. We are getting— ultimately, we are getting, we are getting squeezed a lot. Uh, you've also got that weekly trend line that keeps coming through here, you know. Let's just bring that in actually, um, for you guys to have a look at and put that on the weekly. And, um, You know, you can see just sort of almost as it comes down through these levels here as well, uh, price is getting squeezed in. Um, decision time I think is due soon. I'd be surprised if we got— if we, we ended up coming lower. But that, as someone who is sort of bullish risk, short-term bearish dollar pairs, you know, that's below, below this area is still where I wouldn't want to be in it. Is the way I would look at this. So yeah, for now, positive, uh, the euro. How we finished on Friday is, is nice for those bulls. You've got, I, I guess here you've, you've got two, three ways to look at this. You can be patient and wait for the long if we are to get above this key resistance, this trend line. You've got happy to stay long as long as we're above this area. You can stay short below there down towards this key level. But if you're ultimately bearish and you, you're happy to be late to the party, you know, below this key level is how I would look to play it. But as I've said on previous videos, that doesn't mean, you know, below here we're all the way back down to the trend line. We have got obviously some very key support points to come through. But for now, while we haven't necessarily moved either direction for a few weeks, I would say the euro bulls are in control. And, uh, you know, look, this I mean, like, now we'll go on to pound to pound to talk in a moment, which has been a lot cleaner market. This is the advantage of trading multi, uh, assets is— and set with the same edge if it works— is that there are better opportunities out there. If you're a, you know, looking for momentum or you're looking for a decent trend, you can't really have got that in the euro with— and, you know, being in a position where you're happy. I mean, if you get in that Friday, Monday Obviously it's nice now, but 1, 2, 3, 4 days it comes down, and this is over a week later back to your entry. So you've got to, you know, you've got to feel comfortable holding that position. Likewise with these, these resistance levels here, they've worked, but we keep coming back. So maybe no real big move for the bulls or the bears yet, and those probably, I would say, come above that trend line or below our area of support shaded in red. Over to the pound. Um, well, look at that. The bulls have got to be happy. You know, if you're, you're bullish the pound here, you— I would say you probably on Thursday de-risked a bit as we came towards the 200-day moving average there. That, that's an obvious target, and we've slowed up there a couple of times. So the way I'm looking at this, if I was bearish, I've sort of got a bit confident that maybe we start to turn over and we look to drift down because of that rejection. However, you know, we're still above a key level of what was resistance 7 days ago, so we're above there. Look at that, we haven't quite come back to retest it as such. So 125.46 for sure is still going to be an area now of support where the bulls need to defend and the bears need us to get lower. So that's a key key decision point there. The 200-day moving average is exactly the same. You know, there's— I mean, just look how much nicer a market this is than the euro. You've got levels so well respected, you've got good opportunities that come down here. I mean, look at that decent push. Get above all these super lines in the sand that we've got marked up here. Strong resistance at each of those points. I mean, wow, what a dream. And I think quite a lot of the the pound-related pairs have been a pretty good market as well. Uh, but yeah, 200-day moving average capping price to the upside, break above there. You know, we've had these levels to the upside marked up for quite a long time. They need to stay. Uh, you— and to be honest, I, you know, I wouldn't really move too much around here. I think it's, you know, this is what you'd like to see, you know, 7 days later that your levels are, are work, they're still intact. And, uh, yeah, I'll go for that. I think the pound still looks like a pretty pretty good market if you're short. If you're bearish, uh, below 125.46 makes sense, or the whole false break of, say, the 200-day moving average is obviously a good little opportunity. And actually, last week there was some really nice, uh, false breaks. You know, one of the, one of the, the best signals for me to either go long or short is the false break of a level, and it's just you know, in this scenario here where the pound on, on, uh, Friday looked to have broken this area, you know, we then close above, whether it be in the 16, 15, 5-minute, whatever. And that's just me, you know, the market telling us that the bears gave up, they had nothing left to push us lower, the bulls are back in control, and we push to the upside. Same again, you know, we, we break below a key resistance level We don't close and then we push on. Same in the euro a couple of times last week as well. And, you know, we, we broke, say, a key level, we close above, uh, and, and we push on. It's, it really is just such a fantastic, uh, way. And look, previous low, you know, here you can see that whole false break. If you're only looking for a short, yes, we do close above, but really, you know, this has to be a zone. So we don't close above that zone and we, and we drift down. So yeah, going back to that, that pound, the 200-day moving average false break could be another another opportunity to get short, but for now I don't feel comfortable. I wouldn't feel comfortable being short unless, you know, I did fade, uh, fade in a trade up to that 200-day. I'd rather be short below here or on the false break. This area, the 1.2546, for me is still a point where the bulls would be in control. But the pound again looks a lot cleaner than the euro. Aussie, we had the trendline on, we got that break, and look, look, the circles up at the top, again none of these have been modified or looked at on the daily chart, um, since Sunday. But you can see those circles really capping price to the upside, aren't they? You know, really strong level. I guess we can now remove one of those points. I probably will just actually remove those circles just so it's a bit cleaner for us, uh, next week. But you can see the point of having those on, right? This really strong area of resistance up there that needs to stay above the 70 handle, we're looking at the high of the year. I would still have, you know, this point on there as a bit of a guide. The only thing we probably need to realize is if we do move lower, keep an eye on the trend line. And of course, if that does break, then we could be looking at, uh, well, yeah, the lows of the 30th of June and the 15th to come in. And as I've said each time, to keep an eye on that 200-day moving average. For me, looks a pretty good opportunity to get long lower down. Of course, with any, um, with any, uh, I'll leave that trend on. With any market that does come down, of course you've got to reassess the market conditions. Was there a reason we dropped lower and could go down? But certainly 200-day moving average looks good for the Aussie. Also, if we were at any point to come back down to that 1.10 handle in Euro, looks very good as well. The pound, I must say, if it does come lower, um, I think, uh, there's this— doesn't look to be an amazing area of support that hasn't, you know— I really like areas that haven't been tested for a while, whereas the pound has, and to its advantage, has been a lot better for intraday medium-term trading. Uh, S&P Do I need to change any levels? Probably the resistance I can just touch up a bit to the high of last week, which is where we finished on, uh, and then we've obviously got a nice area of support capping that, uh, this good, good, good little zone to have here between 83 and 07. To the upside, obviously we've got those highs, then we're looking at 32, 31 if we can get above there on this. Obviously on the futures from the rollover the 19th of June is worth considering key lows. Other than that, would I have much on? Let's have a look and see if we can have a trend line from the all-time high. Oh, look at that, that is lovely. Well, you know, there's two ways to look at it. If you're bearish, and I understand it's been a hard time to be bearish, um, you've hit a trend, you got the high of the week. How we start next week could be a key to get short. Um, again, if I was not currently long, you know, I might consider unwinding a bit of that position if we come under 83, certainly under 76. Uh, and you know, this is obviously where I'm long from, you know, this is where my stop would be. So below there, I have no interest in it. But yeah, these are all points where, you know, I would not really feel too comfortable about being in those longs. But trend line being here, the flip side of that is, can I add to a position? Can you add to a position? Can you get a new one if we get above that trend line? If we get above maybe 3,200, looking for price to really kick on to levels obviously not seen since, uh, the 9th of June, but more importantly up here, 10th of Feb, which I don't think is out of question. Uh, but we got earnings coming up. Uh, look out for Anthony's Macro Menu later, as always, is a great, great way to set the, the week up. Um, and I'm sure it will, will have the calendar in there from Earnings Whispers. And if not, follow them on Twitter, they're great. But Netflix are certainly out next week, and the week after as well is, uh, is even better in terms of, of earnings coming out for for opportunities perhaps. Um, moving to the NASDAQ, you know, I've had this loose, uh, trend channel and we're at the top of that now. The market doesn't want to come down, right? I mean, look on the futures. I mean, this is insane. We haven't had two down days in futures since, since the 13th and 12th of May. If you sell after every, you know, second down day, I mean, you're laughing. Or after every down day, you're laughing here. Incredible, incredible market. Um, begs the question, you know, how high can it go? I, I think the sky is still the limit. Where I guess— and let's just remove everything except the trend channel. Is that trend channel still on? You know, where is the, the next point to really load up on a, on a long? You can see, you know, here we got a good reaction. However, we spiked through to the upside and downside on that. I would be potentially looking at something like the longs from these two points. For me, can we get at some point down to there to load up in a market that has proven now is the time for tech, uh, to go higher. Earnings could move things around, but if you're overall bullish, you know, earnings, it could just be a tiny dent to then get in lower down is the way I'm looking at it. Um, below both of those points, I guess we're also then looking below this trend, and that could lead to a bigger move lower. I'm not looking to short this higher. Um, at the same time, I'm probably not looking to, to get long on, on the highs of the day. And sometimes you just got to accept, if you're not in it, let it go. Um, whereas if you are in it and it's risk-free, hold it, hold this bad boy. You know, it could— can continue to, to go and go and go. Would it surprise people? Probably not. But look, it's going vertical. Surely a pullback is due. A pullback in the NASDAQ is going to impact the, the Dow and the S&P more so as well. So just bear that in mind. But for me, if we can get this zone probably in the next couple of weeks, I would like it. But below that trend line, I'll probably be saying, you know, maybe a long from, from here is a bit better. But as equities are showing, we are finding possibly some resistance. I say that lightly. Uh, Dow Jones, it's certainly, you know, saw a nice tweet or a tweet over the weekend, you know, the, the NASDAQ is the new, new equity market and the Dow the old one, no one cares about it anymore. Um, and it's shown, but you know, if this goes back to all-time highs, you know, you are looking at a very good trade from where we are now you know, nice little 13-14 percenter. You know, it's not to be laughed at, is it? Um, levels are intact, aren't they? I don't really need to change anything. Not much movement. Our lows, uh, that we had on hit to the tick on Friday end up being great support. 200-day moving average, you can see on the 7th, was hit. You know, it's, uh, yeah, nothing needs to be changed there at all. Boring but also good, you know. Above the 200-day moving average, we're looking for the high that we got on the 16th. Below our Friday low, then we are looking for this wonderful area of support that we talked about 2 weekends ago coming back into play. What were the longs there like, eh? I mean, that was just, just fantastic. Uh, let's have a quick look over the DAX as well because you can see when we did this, it was coming to that similar area, albeit did spike down, but Turned out to be another good opportunity to have got in. Uh, we're above this zone that I've had on, closed above, come back down, couldn't close below there. Good opportunity for the, the bulls who've got in. You'd say looking at this, unless we've got a trend line from the all-time high— it's not good enough. Uh, yeah, unless we've got that, we are then looking for this, this higher to come in. Big, big zone. Second time we probably get hit. Is it gonna hold? Because if not, well, what's stopping it getting to this, this sort of breakdown point that we had on the, you know, the 21st, but also the, the 10th of Feb? What other market has a key level on the 10th of Feb? You've got it, the S&P. Very correlated, it seems, at the moment, the DAX and the S&P. Look at that. I mean, get which market's which. If you don't know, the numbers on the right-hand side, very correlated in my opinion. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. Um, but yeah, above here I'd expect a decent push to the upside, close of the day obviously. Whereas if we close below 12,487, it wouldn't be too surprising to see a bit of a drift down. Keeping an eye on the moving average and then these lows down here. I'm just going to put these lines on, but, uh, Yeah, it's congested to say the least, um, around this area here. Big area of support below there, then yeah, maybe we do start to push down a bit. So a quick look at the lows just to see if we've got anything worthwhile having on. Hmm, no, not for me, not for me. Let's have a look over at gold, the market that, uh, yeah, took 1800 and finished pretty much bang on it. I must say, you know, looking at, at gold, I'm not, you know, a, a massive fan of it right now. I know we're above the, that range that we were in, and it was a range market. We then, you know, finally got to close above. It's been messy up there. I, I think, you know, this was obviously a nice opportunity. If you remember back on the, the 26th, we came back down to test it again. So for me, this was the point to have got in, if not already in, uh, and that's led to obviously a good push higher. But when, you know, we're at multi-year highs, you've got just such a battle with this market where if the equities go higher, you know, are we talking risk on like we saw on Friday, or is it a weaker dollar? We go higher, yes, overall the conditions are probably still good for gold. I'm just not sure if buying up here is, is the right, right play. So I'll be, I'll be focusing on, on trying to get some potential pullback in this market. Um, maybe worth having this trend line on. I don't know, I don't know, still looks a bit messy really. But yeah, below here I still wouldn't mind $1,754 to be honest. I think with gold, the way I would play this though with any of these support levels is, is wait, wait to see what happens at those levels. You know, there's no harm in, in, uh, waiting for the false break to occur like we saw on those intraday time frames in euro, pound, and obviously longer term as well. Um, yeah, that's how I'll be going about it. And of course, resistance levels, you know, you are looking at the highs that we haven't seen for such a long time. Bringing that in, let's just remove everything on there, um, and, and start talking about, well, look, we've just taken out the, the 4th November 14th high It could be a great level to, to go short. Stop above now, the new high of the year drifting us back down potentially. Do we get up to the all-time high, September 11th on futures, $1,919? Now let me know in the chat actually, guys, what do you reckon? Do— does gold go all that way? We'll find out, won't we? But, uh, yeah, look, look at that rejection there on the weekly. Um, of that level 1 test to the tick here, comes back lower. Maybe we have to come back down to test 1776 before going higher on. Let's have a quick look at silver as well, which has, uh, been more of a lag, uh, than gold, um, but it's still pushing higher. And you can see here on the weekly, you know, this area I've had marked up for some time. We did close above there but on the flip side, you say maybe we false, uh, we attempted, we couldn't get quite above the, the 3rd of September high. So silver doesn't look as interesting to me, but as long as we stay above this area here, you know, I'd be happy to be long. Trendline as a bit of a guide still in play, area support. I mean, it just looks messy, to be honest. I think gold, while I don't necessarily want to get it right now, looks cleaner. Oil, um, You know, I was speaking to— we got some interns in at the moment, and I was speaking to them about, about oil and how we have this trend line everyone in the world is watching that trades oil from these lows. And I was saying sometimes with these, you know, the best opportunity to get long is the false break, as I've said a million times already this, uh, this video, is the false break of, of a level lower. And look at that, we've had a bounce. I reckon we go now. I reckon we get above $41, we take out you know, and close above the 6th of March low. Yeah, you've got to be bullish this market in my opinion. Um, obviously a close below the trend line changes that for me, but I think we push on. I think we take these levels out and resistance levels are still intact. I'll be honest, from the 30th to the 9th of July, I don't think there was really a good opportunity in oil. However, last 3 days it has been um, false break of a trend line. People are trapped short. I think we go now. I think we go now. I think the opportunity is there. Um, however, you know, break and close below that trend line properly, you probably don't want to be in it. Uh, you don't want to be in it. But yeah, guys, I'm gonna, I'm gonna wrap it there. Um, obviously, guys, please, uh, do check out— where is it? Down that way. Um, Amplify Now. And also Amplify Live, if you are interested in joining the traders chat room that we have, uh, feel free to email me at s.north@amplifiedtrading.com if you do want to know more about it. Uh, fingers crossed for the Arsenal. And finally got a haircut, uh, which was long, long overdue. The barbers couldn't believe how, uh, how much hair I had, how thick it was. But, uh, we're here now. We move, and it seems like maybe the world is starting to turn a corner as well, and things are slightly getting better, uh, in Europe at least. Anyway, uh, anyway guys, hope you have a great week ahead of you. Uh, any questions, as usual, please do let me know, whether it be in the chat here or on Twitter. Uh, but yeah, look forward to catching up with you, uh, all shortly. And if not, see you all next week.