Weekly Trading Set-ups 15th-19th June 2020

Hi guys, happy Sunday. Hope you've all had a good weekend so far. Uh, same as usual, we'll just have a look over the, uh, the charts, how we finish the week, uh, one by one. But we'll also go over the new levels for the week. And rather do that all in one go, I'll start on the euro, having a look at last week and then doing this week as well. So here we got the euro, uh, a couple of the levels we had marked up to the upside didn't really materialize, but so, you know, they can, they can stay on. The key level to the downside, which you can see I've got an arrow marked up here, and, and I guess this was saying where, you know, the buyers would potentially be looking for price to come back for that, that next push. You can see just how important, uh, as a resistance level it was on the 27th, um, of March. So yeah, I guess we're just, you know, looking at that as an important point for an area of support. Um, let me just fix this camera quickly. I don't want it to fall over. Um, so yeah, the buyers could well look to come in. I guess we're in a bit of a predicament with, with the dollar side of things because, you know, if we, if we do have some, you know, serious risk-off, then does the dollar strengthen? But then does that force the Fed's hand and then weaken the dollar? It's a tricky one, isn't it, right now. So trade what you see, not necessarily what you think. But below 1.1189, the previous high, 27th of March, the breakthrough area that we saw on the 3rd, then I would expect to see a bit of a downside come into this market and almost be looking at, uh, you know, below here, looking for price to drift back down to what you would expect would be a very solid level of support. And given the grand scheme of things, with the Fed likely to be dovish for a long time and throw everything at the economy to boost the economy, sorry, that, that could be a level to, to get in for the longs. Um, to— well, how we finish the week, the fact that we just finished before my zone here, below the zone here, you would say is, is bearish going into the week. But obviously we're quite close to that next level, so it works on the, on the, on the, on the flip side for the longs. If we can get back above this area here, then, you know, the, the bears have, you know, given up on this area, and the bulls can come back in, and we can then look to to push to the upside. But just remove some of these, these lines and really just sort of marking it up again now as a zone around this point here. Um, I haven't had a close above this level, which is interesting, the 5th of June high. So that would be something I, I would, would look to have on. Let me just remove— I'll leave that on there. But yeah, so bullish on the circle if we can get back up and then really targeting that rectangular area before these previous levels come in. If we can drift below here, just be aware of these previous highs, which could of course all act as areas of support as we come back through. But overall, not the biggest move, it has to be said, last week in terms of direction. Yeah, we pushed high and came down, and that looks a lot, but not too far away from where we really opened. Um, but yeah, bearish initial start I would expect on, on Sunday. We'll this evening on the open, but maybe back down towards this area and then it's decision time. But yeah, we'll see. There's plenty of twists and turns to come, I am sure of that. Moving over to the pound, um, where we hit our— what day was that? On the 10th. Yeah, so we hit the next target level we had marked up, circled here. And, and just, you know, for the record, I haven't even looked at the, the remaining charts yet. You know, I've literally just opened up the thing, so we're doing this one by one. I'm sure there'll be some areas I've missed and gone through, but it's a good sort of learning lesson for, for myself to go through as well. Um, below the 200-day moving average Thursday, Friday. Uh, but yeah, what a great level for people to book profit. I mean, technically, you know, whenever you— we find a top or a bottom, hindsight tells you it was a good level. But yeah, you can see why people would have got out here. Was the sort of support point for this major move lower. Good, uh, turning point for that. Um, areas of support on Friday that came in, obviously the— this, uh, this previous high from the 8th, significant. I would also just now remove a couple of these lines, certainly not to the upside, they don't need changing. The, the high that we had on Friday, you can see there's a really strong level here. Quite a few markets actually broke Thursday, came back to retest on Friday some previous levels, and it really was some great trades. So to the— I would say we can be bullish on the, the pound if we get back above 1.2649. Bears in control at the moment. Um, if we are to have risk-off, which potentially the weekend markets are suggesting, then I would imagine the pound comes under a bit of pressure and Um, maybe against the dollar isn't the right one to play, but maybe other pairs it might make a bit more sense. However, below 1.2467, just be aware because then we'll be looking to come to this trend line where a bigger move could absolutely take place. Are we just getting squeezed in? We'll have to wait and see. But yeah, the pound relatively well respected on technical levels last week, to be honest, and as, as euro was. The Aussie, um, interestingly couldn't get above our 31st of December high. Had a few goes at doing that and couldn't. I was lucky it didn't go above that because I didn't even mark up the levels. But you can see here, you would, you would have gone sort of July 19 and then April 19 as well, um, if you wanted to. Let's just remove this one on here. Just be aware of You know, again, like the euro, no close above this area, and obviously it's now a zone up at these highs. Um, this was a good example I was just talking about on the pound. Breaks a low on Thursday, comes back on Friday to test it, and that's obviously offered a good level of resistance. As if we are to risk on any week, any part of this week, and push higher, just be aware of, you know, these previous lows that are marked up on the daily. While slightly choppy Thursday, Friday they're going to hold significance there as well. Um, the way we finished on, on Friday, you would, you would suggest it's a bit, it's a bit tricky to really call. Um, I would, you know, wait, be late to the party. Above 69.31, then I would be looking to buy and target those highs again. If we get, uh, below 68.53, I'd be looking for 67.56 to come back in. 200-day moving average will be key to the downside, as will obviously 67.56, but also any areas of support here if we are to have a very heavy risk-off week. Trend line like you saw in the pound is on here in, in the Aussie. Overall, I, I think there's more room to the upside in the Aussie, just maybe not right yet. Um, the, the weekend The weekend, uh, market on IG is, is saying, uh, at the moment the Dow is almost a percent down, uh, as are other equity markets. So this is likely to lead to a gap in futures, uh, on the open. And, you know, Aussie, Euro, Pound likely to come under a touch pressure because of some potential dollar strength from that. The correlation with the Aussie and the S&P has been phenomenal. So yeah, just bear that in mind and have your areas long above, short below, and, uh, or have your fundamental view and only trade that when that comes in. It would be my advice. S&P, let's have a look. Um, we came up, didn't we? Got above here. Uh, obviously the Fed on, uh, the, on the 10th. So like I was saying last time, I didn't think much would happen and I thought it'd be a short-term high. Um, hindsight says it was, you know, a mix of things though, isn't it? You know, the Fed, the second wave, um, as well as, you know, Trump's handling of what's going on as well. Not great. All adding to it at the same time. Comes under a bit of pressure. And obviously got US-China stuff as well. Yeah, I mean, we were due a pullback, weren't we? Interestingly, haven't closed below the 200-day moving average. Um, 29.95, uh, as well. Look at that, another sort of rectangular area I had marked up from last week, finds good support. You would say the, the bulls would want us above 31.14 looking at this, and, and that would be, that would be an opportunity to buy, you know, late on. I mean, you can see the arrow here, looks perfect, doesn't it? Come back down to that and push up. However, you got to assess the situation really. Would you have gone long Friday? On the close with the, the idea to hold, um, for a long period of time. Probably not, probably not. Um, so if there is a gap, it might well be that we end up below the rectangular area here, and then you are looking back down to 2,900, and then below that, the bottom of that range could scare people a bit, couldn't it? Um, so yeah, let me just remove some of these some of these arrows and get the new levels marked up. I would just move this to there. Here, this is what I'm saying, you know, those support break, come back, great area of resistance on Friday. Remove 30.39 now, even though we did just close pretty much bang. Yeah, just be aware 30.37. Um, let's see what else I'd move. Probably move 31.14. Now again, it's more of a, more of a zone, isn't it, that I was saying I'd be long there above. I mean, look at this, support, support, support. Uh, day after the Fed, see you later. 31.82, yeah, gotta have that one still. 32.13, probably just remove a bit again, making this more of a zone on those highs. Uh, and yeah, that's how kind of how I'd have it. Obviously, just be aware if we do push lower, the lows of these days Um, and this 2886, a few points either way, has been a fantastic zone where people will be saying, well, you know, let's get long here or short below. So yeah, NASDAQ, it's, uh, Friday about 5 o'clock, was positive on the week. It was insane, you know. The, the first day the Dow moved down 1800, NASDAQ was still positive. On the day, I mean, so we carried on to push high, we hit the 10,000, uh, we broke through, uh, broke the lows on Thursday, came back to retest the 9th of June low that offered resistance. We came back down to find support on the 2nd, one of the areas we had marked up. If we push lower, be aware of the trend line and all of these lows in between 14,042 a lot of support down at these lows though, that even with that trend line going, people will potentially be looking to get long. Just to bear in mind, let me just remove a couple of these lines. I'd still have that. Yeah, I mean, pretty keep it pretty simple like that. Is, you know, aren't we just in a, in a trending up, up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down? Is this now the opportunity to get long again? The weekend market suggests no, but that could be faded very quickly as well. So yeah, wait, wait and see. The numbers out of Florida, for example, were causing a bit of panic in the market. I'll leave it to Anthony to talk over the fundamental viewpoint, but my two pence is Trump's not going to shut down. I know it's not down to him, and the individual states can do it. It will be probably the it'll probably be quite political, won't it? You know, Democratic states probably maybe going to shut down, Republicans might not. Then it gets— yeah, just another way, another excuse for Trump to blame people with if it hurts the economy. You know, he said we should have kept open, blah blah blah. Um, but yeah, we'll, we'll have to wait and see there. Um, on that, I, I said in a, a thread with Alex, who's one of the, uh, the mentors here at Amplify as well, just saying how for me the bigger thing would be if Europe, you know, really starts to close down again, if we have to, if we get that second wave. Because a lot of countries have been praised for how they, they've dealt with it, most notably Germany. So if numbers were to increase there and we shut down, and now we've got a big problem because we priced in the second wave and then we unwound that, and now we're talking about the second wave when in some parts we're still in the first. Confusing, right? Um, but yeah, let's wait and see. Let's wait and see and let the market tell us what's going on. Below the trend line, you can't be bullish until you hit some of these supports and maybe the news gets a bit better. If you would, like me, you'd look for the longs, um, but be happy to be late. I would say above 98.18 is that area, you know, above here on the close. Well, you're looking for it to push up to the— well, push on to the all-time highs. The Dow broke above here. You know, if there wasn't the Fed, what, uh, what a place to then get long to target this massive area of resistance. Doesn't happen. We have a bad Thursday, smash through our levels. I've been looking at this though, be looking at— I mean, this is a great area to look to get long. Bullish price action around here, maybe a false break. You know, would I adjust any of those areas on the Dow? I mean, yes. Just moving that to that low and make this more of a zone as well. 200-day moving average, probably now just move that to that low here. This can be moved up there. And obviously marking up these lows, 1, 2, 3, 4 lows of the day, of those days around there. So you want a big level near the 25,000 handle, you've got it right there. And Uh, but this makes a massive area of support underneath, underneath, uh, 24,769. Well, I mean, we could start pushing down to these lows here, and then it gets ugly. These markets can change very quickly, as we know. Um, I'm not of the position right now where I think it's panic stations. Be interesting to review this next Sunday because, of course, that we could have a very quick move lower, you know. But, um, yeah, I, I, I, I still think there's, there's upside to come, but we can suggest downside initially early on. Gold, funny one, with everything pushing down back into the week, gold wasn't really catching a bid. It's contained. I mean, I, I would— I wouldn't even move any of these, these levels I've got marked on. Just, you know, gold broke through the our key level, came back to test it perfectly. I guess that would have been the targets. It'd still be bullish above 1722, bearish below. We're range-bound in gold, to be honest. You can't look at that on a daily chart and say otherwise. You can't. And so therefore, the, the resistance levels, 4658 and then the high of the year, remain below. Yeah, I mean, you've got, you've got the handle in there. 1684, and then, you know, these lower points as well, which you'd mark on. But yeah, the only worrying thing, of course, from, you know, looking at what happened in February, was when markets were getting jittery, gold didn't really push on. Are we seeing that 2.0 in that sort of liquidation margin call, um, example we saw? We'll have to wait and see. But yeah, didn't really, didn't really want to come down, did it? Silver, um, that high technical, uh, analysts, um, you know, who went short there are loving life right now. Uh, trendline, look at that, still holding quite nice. Um, probably have to remove 1781 now, a bit choppy in there. Key zone came up to test it, didn't quite get above it, and that led to this push Thursday, Friday. Beware of the trendline, I would say, on silver. Said, I mean, to the downside, my levels would stay the same. But I guess if we do push lower, you probably are going to want to start marking up some of these in, in preparation. This holds and we do see some risk off and gold and silver catch a bid, then yeah, $1,819 would be a ceiling to be aware of for, for that. Oil, um, yeah, I mean, it, it kind of did what we, we said last Sunday, have a bit of a push on the positive news, and that could then leads a bit of profit taking of buy the rumor, sell the fact. And, and, and that's what's happened. Um, interestingly, we didn't close below 36.29, um, which for me would have been bearish for the week. You can see these highs here. I mean, maybe I should have had them on last week in, in, uh, if I'm being critical. I can't remember if I talked about them or not now, but yeah, 34.93 you'd have on making a big stone. Uh, any of these lows, I guess let's mark them up just because we could be looking at a down week. I mean, look at that, it's a lot of support around there, isn't there? I think for a bigger move, just being aware of any potential trend lines in play, probably worth having a look for some. Uh, to the upside, obviously we're not getting— well, I guess you could probably have that one. It's not the best trend line in the world, but something just to consider if we do push and then $41 can come into play, uh, having reached $40.44, almost, almost that low, uh, about 60 cents above the high of last week. Um, but yeah, uh, below, below the high of the 26th, there's not really a case to be bullish from a technical point of view. In my, in my view, the DEX, okay, well, I mean, look at that. What day did it hit that? 8th, it was the 8th last— on Monday. Yeah, look at what a resistance level. And this is the thing though, you know, if there wasn't the Fed— I was generally of the belief that the Fed was the main event and why would I want to get in an equity position before that? Hindsight tells me it's the right thing to do. Hindsight says for the last few Fed meetings it's been the right thing to do is in hold off. Turns out to be an unbelievable resistance, doesn't it? Look at that, look at that breakthrough this area. Find support on our 28th of May, uh, into the close. Got a new range, haven't we? You know, bullish above 12,257, back up to 500 key level now as well. Below here, then you're looking at, uh, you know, 11,500 and then the high that we had back on the 30th of April. If it is to get ugly, just be aware of, of some of these highs back on the 20th of May and the low a couple days later on the 22nd, uh, as well. But yeah, I'll, uh, I'll wrap it there, guys. So if you, if you enjoy that, found it useful, as usual, any questions, get them in the chat. But I hope you have a great trading week ahead, guys, and look forward to catching up with you all next Sunday.