Weekly Trading Set-ups 17th - 21st August 2020

Hi guys, hope everyone is doing well. Happy Sunday, hope you've all had a good week, enjoying the weekend. Let's have a look over some charts, uh, as some of these big levels are still in play. Thank you very much as well for the birthday messages on Monday, it means a lot to me. Let's get stuck in then. We'll start as usual going one by one through the markets, and obviously if you look in the comments or just above the comment section there, they will be timestamped as well, so you can just flick through to the ones of interest. Euro, I mean, these are daily candles now that we're looking at, um, and it hasn't— I mean, looking at this— done too much, has it? It's above, and you can see here our line in the sand that we had from 2 weeks ago. Um, but unfortunately last weekend I wasn't able to do this video, but, uh, you can see I'm doing it now a bit earlier. Got football, uh, in a couple hours, so I thought I'd get it out of the way now rather than uh, later when I'm most likely going to be injured. Anyway, we're above this area, this line in the sand, which really dictates play for me between the 1.17s and the 1.19s. So above there, you'd argue we're perhaps likely to get a bit of a push on. However, with the euro, we're, we're still bang on this trend line, albeit tiny bit above. Of course, you would want to see a bigger break before committing to any longs, but I would say, you know, looking at this, it wouldn't be ultimately too surprising to see another test of that triple top to make it 4. And then if that happens, that's when you can get potentially that final push higher. One thing of note though is the month that we're in. It is starting to feel, certainly on some days and sessions, that is summer market season and the volume is drying out a bit, certainly in FX. Can we get a big technical push above a multi-year trend line in these conditions? Potentially. I would, you know, just argue maybe not though. However, it'd be interesting to see, can we get another test of that? I still have the line in the sand on the futures at 118s, and then the bottom part of that range, which we tested a couple of times before testing it again last week I'd have that as the bottom. So for levels above and below where we're trading, you can see I haven't had to adjust them now for 2 weeks, and, and that really sums certainly the euro dollar up. So therefore, to the downside, the levels stay the same. Above where we're trading, I guess this is when, you know, you are going to want to really scoot back the chart and you're looking at some of the highs going back here to May 2018, uh, and that really takes us to sort of the 120 handle. And then the big level that I think people will obviously pay attention to is just a bit above that, 121. Some people, uh, are thinking at some point, like Alex— I'm sure you've, uh, seen his calls— thinking 125 comes, which is obviously these highs that we had from late, uh, 2017, uh, or I should say early 2018. So they're not a million miles away, and especially if we get a break above that weekly trend line you can see maybe there is a bit of free room for it to go. I'll just be careful about thinking it's going to happen in one explosive, uh, week, for example. But yeah, to the downside, obviously we've got these highs that haven't quite been retested yet. I still think, you know, if we, if we get a strong rejection again of this weekly trend line, or maybe we would false break the, uh, the highs, then people will be on high alert. And below 117 I think 115, as you can see here, which we had, that's sort of the high from the 9th of March. People will be identifying that. And for the bulls, it looks like a great place to reload up for the long. Moving on swiftly to the pound. Again, levels not touched— tested, uh, as a touch, sorry, uh, since 2 weeks ago. And you can see, I mean, you probably would— I mean, we probably want to move the 130.39 area, but other than that, to the upside, you're not changing anything. Again, this is August, this is halfway through. It's, it's slow, isn't it? And the fact that in 14 days I haven't had to— or should I say 10 days of trading— had to change any of my levels speaks volumes here. And not because they're great levels, but because the market hasn't really pushed on higher or lower from there. Um, to the upside of this, obviously 133 is, uh will be of note. And then you've got a couple of higher levels going back to really the election on the 12th, uh, of December. Obviously in early hours, uh, the 13th, we did get up to 135 on futures there. So keep a watch on that. Um, to a closer upside, obviously the 132 handle will be one that people keep an eye on there. It's a double top as well from recent trade, but also going back from 9th of March, which of course, was that Euro 9th of March. So a lot of, uh, attention will be around that similar level, uh, in the Euro, and potentially at some point, uh, the longer-term weekly, uh, trend line, another rejection of that. Looking at it on the weekly, you sort of will have this area marked up at 1.2747, which is the high from the 10th, uh, oh sorry, the 9th of July people will sort of have that on the, on the week, uh, I guess maybe a tiny bit higher, but more of a zone there. People will be identifying that either as a place to get long should we start pushing down, or the continuation of the downside if this rejects it. Um, so yeah, big, big rejection again last week on the weekly candles. 1, 2, 3 times it's hit that zone and come back down. How key is that going to be? I'd favor, you know, we actually come back down to the 130 handle. Not a massive move, only 80 pips or so, but that is when it is decision point. That is when the bulls and bears are going to go to battle. Uh, above 132, that's when this whole view is, is wrong. And a daily close above that trend line, that could lead to a weekly— would then start to see a push higher. The only issue that maybe we're going to have is these markets can't go down while equities are going up. And equities are continuing to go up, albeit in a bit of a choppy fashion as of late. Uh, Aussie dollar, moving on. Um, these are the levels, hopefully it loads up, that you can see. So we've got a bit of a push higher. Uh, we did get a break above the 72.15s, which is the first time you can see we got above there since 17th of April 2019. Is a big level actually, and I think that sort of false break would have potentially caught a couple of people out, to be completely honest. Um, but yeah, we're back into the zone. Let me just remove that ellipse. If we do come back down, and I'm just going to remove the rectangles here, this would be an area where I think people are certainly going to be eyeing up, uh, you know, key, key defense of this, this upward trend, upward direction that we've had on the Aussie dollar. So keep a watch should we at all come back to test that. On the, uh, the longer time frame, you can see similar to the pound, isn't it, in that you've got this, uh, another test of this, I guess, in the euro as well. All currency pairs, that's right on this very, very key, uh, you know, just point. So on the daily, it hasn't really done too much. It's making a decision. Something's got to go. Is it going to be the close above this area on the week or is it going to be a rejection and actually we start to come back below these two highs that we had? And on the daily chart, what does that look like? Well, you can see around that sort of 70.38 level— is it something— 38, 70.45, around our zone that we got here. So that's going to be the key decision, whether we can get there, uh, to the downside this week without equity's coming under pressure. I'm not too sure, but that's going to be huge. And then obviously above the highs, and more importantly, just keeping on your weekly trend lines here, that's when people will start thinking, well, actually, can we now get a push towards the 73.87, which is still a decent-sized move. You can see around here, going back to 2018 levels, December Uh, so yeah, the, the currency pairs just got to factor in the, the date, the summer sort of season, our weekly trend lines, uh, and also the lines in the sand, which would be very important for whether price can, you know, push to the downside or continue to push to the upside. I don't think there's much harm if you're not in a dollar-related pair to, to hold off and wait for a break either way. If you got caught out in that Aussie, obviously just be aware of that weekly trend line. And like I said, I do think people would have got caught there, but if your stops are tight, uh, it probably was not, uh, the worst trade in the world. Moving on, equities, which I've said have grinded higher in the couple of weeks that we haven't done the, uh, the video. Um, solid support that we got down 3,200. We then broke through a very key zone, um, that we had marked up here, and we can see we just confirmed the push above it ever since. So we broke above, rejected the lows, rejected the lows 1, 2, 3, 4 times. Uh, just shows how key that level is. However, if we just get a little horizontal line on the last few days worth of price action, you've got 1, 2, 3 3, 4 quadruple top. Now that's either looking to coil up and smash through, or it's just showing kind of similar price action what we saw on the last all-time high, and that we just can't keep pushing on and eventually we come down. To be honest, guys, it would be healthy for a little correction, wouldn't it? Um, I think people are going to load up if it was to come, say, $32.84. It's also, uh, the moving average here that people will be looking at. Let me just um, what moving average it is. The 21, I know that's good in the NASDAQ, but people will be looking at that on the S&P as well. So just gonna change a couple of these levels just to make it a bit cleaner. Oh, I don't know what I clicked there. While that just sort of loads up, um, I would just— there we go— I would just have this level as the, the area I think people are going to load up from. Around 3284. Obviously your price action, you want to see what you want to see before committing to that trade. And also keep an eye on 3321. The all-time high is in touching distance, uh, 3399, and it's actually 3/4 on that. But yeah, break above there, then you know where does it go to. That's when, you know, you start maybe looking at some trend lines coming up from these levels or your fib extensions. Um, but yeah, I think for equities, you're gonna have, you know, a dart at the all-time. There's no guarantee that it pushes on. And actually, I think the, the next trade to add to it on that continuation is still, you know, a long period away of when we can get through. We can then come back because it will come back, in my opinion, to test it, whether it holds straight away or not, before that next leg higher. So we're still a few weeks away, I believe, from, uh, the next really good opportunity on a continuation higher. If we do push lower, you know, these highlighted areas and rectangles are all points where for now I'd consider adding to it. One market that hadn't had trouble with an all-time high was the NASDAQ. However, um, last sort of week or so it had a bit of a struggle— I'll say last week had a bit of a struggle trying to reclaim it. Um, you can see the trend channel still intact. The 21-day moving average is still something people look at. And the, the bottom part here of that trend matches up with a nice area, uh, which was also— I'm gonna say it was a previous sort of all-time high. Yeah, around here on the 9th of July. Good sort of line in the sand that people are looking at, uh, and the previous all-time high. Sorry, this is the level I was thinking of here, which again, not adjusted from 10 or 2 weeks ago. 10 trading days ago, uh, the previous all-time high that we had on the 13th of July. That's going to be pretty key by looking at this for a bit of a guide. 21-day moving average trend line in there, area support around 10,780. Uh, there's quite a few areas that the bulls will have a chance to defend if we do push lower. To the upside, the new all-time high, similar to the S&P in that 1, 2, 3, 4 rejections last week. However, that's obviously no guarantee. We definitely push lower, but as a bull, you probably would have wanted to see, uh, price action on Friday finish a tiny bit higher. Do we come under a bit of pressure on the open? We'll have to wait and see. It's still early in the weekend really to have a look at those weekend markets. Dow Jones had a good rally over the last 2 weeks. Yes, it stalled like the other equities did as well. But we came up to this such key level here, 28,127, before the big breakdown that we got on the 24th, on that Monday and Tuesday in February, 24th and 25th. So we hit that level, we then find support back on the 9th of July— 9th of June high. Keep a watch should we come back to our next level. I mean, I haven't edited this, I'm not going to edit it either. Looking at this trend line, previous area of resistance around 27,094. Free if 27827 doesn't hold. On the push to the upside, if we get above this zone, that's when you're going to see more tweets from Donald Trump as we approach new all-time highs. I'd say that, I mean, it's not a great— it's not a massive call, it's not a brave call, but the Dow in my opinion is going to be on all-time highs before the election, if not on the election, as well as it continues to push on to So just some areas of interest to be aware of if that comes, comes sooner rather than later. This breakdown point here on the Friday of the 21st of Feb, so that gap fill will be of interest. And then of course the all-time high. To the downside, when this view is wrong, trendline has to go, this level has to go, um, but then of course the 31st of July could well still be a point where people look to sort of load up as well as would be the 29th of June low. So yeah, Dow, um, S&P and NASDAQ, while they stalled over the last sort of back end to that week, they're still in pretty good nick, I would have to say, going forward. Gold, uh, obviously had a, a massive push lower. It's, uh, and you can see these levels on when we would have done this, would have been the second So yeah, around these sort of highs, you smash through that. So you can't necessarily put levels on above that haven't been traded. Uh, we then came back below, we took out, uh, this, this next area, and then, which was the $2,000 handle, just a bit above that as well, by the way. That went in quick succession. Uh, and then we came back to a previous sort of resistance level, 23rd of July. That got rejected, we pushed higher. The way we finished last week, you might be slightly more comfortable, but we're— for me, we're still in a sort of a range where it's 50/50 whether we go higher or not. But that would be a good decision area, line in the sand, for whether we test the low last week again or actually we push on. Above $1,975, you're likely to see then the $2,000 handle, and above that, the all-time high. Below this area, this is where I think people would be looking at, say, the 8th of July high, $1831 on futures. That would be probably, if you're looking for more longer-term position, uh, to get in around there. It's a tricky one on gold, I have to say, because if you're, you know, a long, long-term investor, it's not what you want to see, but it's part and parcel. You know, if I go back to my S&P trade that I'm still in, you know, I didn't want to necessarily see price come down from What's this? The high here, 3231, down to 2935. You know, that's, uh, 29— what's that, 300 points if my maths is correct. You know, you don't want to see it, but if you believe in it, it's part and parcel. The market correction is healthy, uh, and you know, if you believe in it that much, you've just been presented with an opportunity to get long, or another one down at 1831. You know, this has been on a Fantastic run, fantastic run. Um, obviously since that sort of low, that'd be the coronavirus low, should we say. Oil, a couple people think it's, it's coiling up for a move to the upside. A few people reckon this rejection, uh, of our level here from the 2nd of March is key, it's telling, and actually we're going to push lower. I, I think it's, it's valid if you're short you're, you're in profit, it's stop above the, the 2nd of March, and obviously which turns out to be the, the higher the 5th of August, uh, you know, above that area, and it's gonna work now or it's not. If you're thinking of the long, you shouldn't necessarily be in it because you would have got, or you would have taken profit on that level which we've had marked up again from 2 weeks ago unchanged. And yeah, it might be that you're now stopped out on the rest of that position, but it's a winning trade, or you're just waiting So above $43.43, then we'd be looking towards that $45 handle and also the low of the 5th of March and then the 3rd of March high as well. Having a look at the— this is bringing another chart here on the weekly for, for oil. It's, uh, dare I say it, and I don't want to— I don't want the oil market to be listening to me because I feel it's gonna ruffle it up the wrong way, but what a boring market. Look at this, look at the finishes here in the week. It's, it's done pretty much nothing, but it is a key level, isn't it? You know, here, putting this back on the weekly, we've got the, the 24th of December, that week, remember, when equities also bottomed out, uh, that level here closed below this. We can't quite get a close the week above that, shows the significance. But if we do, I think $50 comes pretty easy to this. But yeah, key level. Would I want to be short? If it was, it'd be, uh, more of a— be more of a slower, um, a shorter time frame trade is the word I'm looking for. Uh, the long, I think we— yeah, we get $50, uh, later this year. So yeah, I'm still relatively confident in that. I just wouldn't be committing to a new long if not already in it. Uh, silver, obviously that market has been on, on a bit of a whirlwind this year. You can see, I mean, look at that week. To be fair to it, you know, it's back above the, the line in the sand, the only level we have marked up for it. So forgive me for that. But let's have a look at the daily chart to try to piece this together. Uh, if we were to come back down to the 23rd of July, 28th of July low, that's a key level. It rejected the previous sort of high area, no real close below that. So So another key zone. We're above the line in the sand. I think looking at this, you've now got a bit of a range just above where we're trading the double top from Thursday, Friday. Also the low from the 10th of August, the Monday. Back above that, you'd imagine gold's also pushing on, and then we'd be looking at the multi-year high for silver. DAX, just to finish it, um, loads up Uh, when did we do this? It was the 2nd, so 2nd of August. So we push on— we— this makes me look like a genius, doesn't it? Back above the, uh, the bottom part of that, that sort of line of sand that we have, come back to test it, and it pushes on, uh, and all sort of horizontal lines have been respected. So good to see that. Let's just remove those arrows. Uh, I guess the, the line in the sand to the downside, 12 $5,500, you probably still keep that on, just obviously bringing in these new lows as well. This trendline break— and also the FTSE had one similar, I believe— wouldn't have been welcome to bulls, but again, it's been a chance to get in lower down. So bear that in mind on the S&P, bear that in mind on the NASDAQ, bear that in mind on the Dow. Is a dip still a buy equities? I think the answer is yes. Uh, to the upside, what needs to happen here it has to stay above 12,756. I'm just going to extend that, uh, horizontal line, uh, the rectangle I should say, just to bring that across. That's going to be so key. Look how well that's been respected. That goes lower, then we probably get 12,500, and then it's another decision time. Uh, but yeah, this holds, then yeah, just keep a watch on those previous levels to the upside from last week, and also the high that we had back on the 21st of July. Should we, we get a further push, obviously trend line is a long way away, but you've got that low from the 21st of Feb, the Friday before the 24th as well. But market set up nicely. It's a shame it's in August, is what I would say. So keep an eye on those trend lines on currencies, equities, uh while it didn't finish necessarily great on Friday, there's still some great levels to continue this overall uptrend. Oil, keep an eye on that weekly level from way back when. Gold, there's still some solid support a bit below. If your overall bias is still bullish, it's just one you've got to suck up, I think, from, from last week and believe in the, the bigger picture. Anyway guys, hope all is well. I'll see you next weekend, uh, and I hope you have a great week ahead.