Weekly Trading Set-ups 18th-22nd May 2020

Hello everyone, it's great to be back. Uh, I trust you have had a good weekend. Uh, I'll be looking to do this video every Sunday where I'm going to spend a bit of time going through the charts from a technical point of view, uh, one by one. So this coupled with Anthony's Macro Menu should be a good way to stand you in good stead for the coming week. Uh, I'd also like to take this opportunity just to wish you and your families well. I know it's been an incredibly hard, uh, few months with everything that's gone on. Hopefully now we have looked to have turned the corner a bit, uh, but, you know, I hope everyone is doing as well as they can. Um, it obviously has been a challenging time for everyone, and when we do, you know, appreciate that. Um, going forward, any, uh, questions or charts in general that you want me to have a look at, feel free to write in the comments section, uh, and you know, I can change this as we go along each week. I'm more than happy to even chuck in a little lesson if, if people wanted. Um, gonna start on the euro just because, you know, I've got it marked up. Um, let me remove all the, all of the, the lines that I've got marked on. The, the euro for me is all about this, to the downside anyway, this trend line. You can see we made it on Uh, was that Thursday? Incredible area of support, it has to be said. For me, the euro can't go lower until that breaks. It's key. You can look, see what happens the last few times we've been around this area. If you want to even mark up, uh, the, the low from the 20th of February, buyers come in, can't close below there. From a technical point of view, the bulls, um, you know, while we'll probably be pretty worried with how the market is has trended back down to this level, can't— I mean, you know, they can't, you know, take their trade off, I would say, until that trend line goes. So if you're sticking to your plan of buying off these lows, you're in profit. You're not going to want to take it off right now. Um, below the trend line, then, you know, just looking at those lows that we had from April and then the sort of mid to late part of March, if that goes as well— putting this again on the daily chart you know, you're looking at levels from 2017 that I'd mark up here, just being prepared that if it goes, this is where price could get to. Uh, to the upside, uh, where would I— if I was long, would I be targeting? 109.04 in the futures. Then above there you've got some more interesting levels, bit of a double top you could argue, uh, which has been quite common actually across a few of the markets, but it's intact at the moment. Uh, so I'd wait for, for something to really happen. If I just remove all the other lines I've got marks on here, for me, if I'm not in a trade now, I'm not looking to really get into one unless we break out of this circle that's in here. It's containing price. It reminds me a bit of, uh, 2014 where— or 2017— we're going to parity, we've got to go to parity. Well, that may be so But trade what you see, you know, not what you think. And unless that trend line goes, unless this area support goes and closes the day, you know, I'm not looking really for price to break through there. I know people were looking at that weekly trend line not too long ago, going back to, you know, uh, well, yeah, early 2000s. And it's— it got a bit messy, certainly on the futures around there. Let's just draw that on. You can see I roughly drew that. You had a couple of breaks of it. It's holding up nicely enough, uh, on that week. Now if I just bring that 60-minute or put it back onto the day, a lot of support around there, and you can understand why price has bounced a bit. A lot of people, if you believe Twitter, believe this is going to go lower and aggressively. So fine, you know, let's go with that. That's— I'm happy to, to agree, but only below that trend line. However, uh, where it's stationed now, I'm not massively convinced it can push too much higher. However, I would, uh, a bit buy if we can break, you know, above here. And the good thing about the, the macro menu, you know, it does all the work I would need for me. You know, I want to know when is big data coming out, when could we see a big momentum move off a fundamental reason. It could be, you know, comment from a central bank speaker, it could be a big data release that is super weak for the US dollar or super strong for the euro. Okay, well, let's get along above 1.0904 targeting 1.10. Those levels on the daily chart, as we know, are going to be a lot stronger. On the flip side, um, let's just say Jerome Powell completely, you know, destroys all final hopes of negative interest rates, then we're going to push lower. And below that trend line could be the key to get back in to a short to target those lows of the year. Speaking of negative interest rates and, and how markets have finished, you know, there's that double top, by the way. Um, the pound finished very negatively on Friday, broke a massive area of support which you can see marked up from my, my rectangle. And as long as we stay below there, you know, I've got to be bearish on this. And here would be the next target, 120 handle, previous level resistance before we smash through on the 26th of March. Also the low on the 26th of March around 118, and, and then even the lows of the year. Uh, headlines over the weekend— I'm sure Ant will go into this in a lot more detail in the menu and also the Monday briefing— but there's been talk from Haldane about how they're considering negative interest rates. The pound's only going to go one direction, in my opinion, short term. Um, whether that means a gap down on Sunday, we'll have to wait and see. But if— yeah, I think we're going to get to the 118 level this week is what the chart chart would be telling me. Now, when would that be wrong? Well, above 122.41. I actually don't really mind a long above there, and it's that whole false break. It's getting rid of the people that were short, and then we can push on. But where would the target be? Well, how about a really key level resistance, 124.72, 200 pips, risking, let's just say, 50 on a medium-term trade. Makes sense. You have to be right, you know, you know, less than— is that 54— 25% of the time for breakeven. Um, so yeah, I don't mind that. However, the way we finish, you've got to be bearish on this market. Headline's not good. You've got the net— you've got the no-deal Brexit talk coming back in. EU negotiations not going well. Okay, let's take a bit of risk off here. And, um, you know, you can see we're just coming under that pressure, and the dollar's strong as well. So Yeah, not looking good for the pound. However, technically we break higher, good opportunity, uh, to come. Aussie dollar. Now this is another one, double top on, on currencies, and it's another one that's got a lovely little trend line from those lows to keep an eye on. So if you're bearish on Aussie, wait for that trend line to go, wait for this little range to go, and also just be aware of that correlation that we've got with the S&P at the moment. The S&P keeps pushing higher, um, I say keep, if the S&P pushes higher, I think the Aussie's gonna follow it. I think the pound will follow it as well. So just be careful, you know, it's, in my opinion, the last month has been a medium-term trader's nightmare. There really hasn't been that many opportunities where there's been a clear push. I mean, look, you could be long here, oh, comes back out, comes down, you could be short and it's back and It's tricky, it's, you know, it is tricky out there. Um, however, bigger move to come to the downside below these levels, uh, and also the long above there. So now you've got your bit of a range, uh, leave it alone in there. I would say there's going to be obviously intraday opportunities, data points, comments, correlations, etc. that can happen. But for me, the bigger move happens should we, you know, break out of these points here. Break of the trend, looking down for these lows from the, the end of April, breaking above here, looking at that massively key level on the 9th of March. That was, uh, crazy. I remember being in the office, I think, for that. Was that the office? Yeah, I think that's the flash crash, wasn't it? That was the— yeah, the Monday. Yeah, same move. Um, but yeah, looking back to the top of that. Now talking about that correlation, the S&P for me is range-bound. Still got it marked up. I got— there can't be a move a decent-sized move in the S&P unless we break out of, out of that or this where, you know, had a couple of days, you know, strong selling. But from that technical point of view, it's, it's, it's stuck within. And if anything, you want to bring it up towards here, you then want to bring this down here. And when you look back in, in recent years, you can see why, you can see why it's range-bound. There hasn't really been that much decision, you know, really sort of momentum moving in that period. So for me, yeah, I'll probably tidy it up a bit and bring it, you know, down like this. But unless it breaks out of that, I'm not too interested. Looking on the 240, um, you can see how clear it is that it's a range. Let's get a little mid— put a couple of midpoints in here. Um, yeah, I'd say looking at this, the bulls, we want to get it above 2893. The bears, they want to— I said we for the bulls, you can tell what view I have in the market. But from a bullish point of view, I can't get back into this really for a long unless we get above here and towards there. You know, if I was long, wink wink, then, you know, I'd be de-risking a bit there and also at those highs as well. Uh, to the downside, you know, the bears hold this level. Now we can have a look back at those lows that we had through here. But even then, just be careful because you've got such key areas of support just below. It, it's, it, for me, there can't really be a massive, massive move until we break out of that range. Play it, there's opportunities for that of course, but at the moment we're pretty much bang in the middle of that. The main driver for me, and you might have saw my tweet last week, is going to be the NASDAQ. It's propping up the markets, helping. Here's your key level to the upside, bullish above there to obviously fill your gap but also get back to this point, uh, here. To the downside, I had an entry to get long just on these highs. You can see previous highs, didn't quite get in. Now you've got your new range, bigger move can't really happen unless we get below or above However, capping to the upside on Friday, that is quite key. This is something I'll be looking for, uh, that, you know, I can't be bullish for the week ahead unless we on the NASDAQ get above 91.49. So, you know, keep a watch on that. You can see this, the significance, especially how we even finished on Friday. So lows, lows, highs, highs above here. Okay, now we can push on. And obviously in 60 minutes you can have little bits of resistance there as well. But for the NASDAQ, certainly on daily closes, which we know are the most important. Uh, those would be the areas that I'd be looking for. That's, that's my midpoint here. Bullish above, bearish below. So yeah, let's wait and see. And, and it's going to drag the S&P and the Dow with it, in my opinion. Let's just get the bottom end of that range of the Dow. Is that now on Thursday the opportunity to get long to target back up to the top of that range? It could be. And that takes you back to the euro, takes you back to the Aussie. Are these opportunities where the buyers have come back in at the moment? Yes, is the way to think about it. But if they go, that's your cue to get in for those shorts. From a technical point of view, from a psychological point of view as well, the longs no longer want to be in. The best piece of advice I ever got: trade what you see, not what you think. And, and, uh, you know, that's very, very true for right now. Let price tell you what's, what's really going on. Elsewhere, gold, obviously nice push higher. Uh, we saw that last week and you can see no, not far away from it, it's high of the year. We had a nice trendline break. Gold for me has been one where it's, um, it's only been really kicking on, on the, on the breaks in the afternoon. A lot of people I think have tried this in the morning to, to go and it's caught people out. Trade at the right time of the day, trade on the right days. Look at Ant's Macro Menu. When is there likely to be volume if you're looking for those momentum moves. Uh, gold, um, to the downside, we've got a bit of a trend line, uh, which was sort of being tested at times. It was a bit messy, to, to be completely honest, from, from this point of view. If that was to go, and it threatened at the beginning of the week, then fine. I was looking for, you know, potential long 1669 for that area to hold up. We also broke through a bit of resistance, came back to find its support, didn't quite get above, uh, these levels. So it'd be interesting to see what happens there. Uh, above there, I'm bullish towards the, the yearly high is how I would look for it on gold. If we come back below the trend line, bearish. Um, even though that sounds a bit weird saying bearish gold with the condition going on right now, but it's near the highs, people will be looking to take profit. Wouldn't be surprising to see a bit of a pullback there. As well. Oil, um, let's draw that on there. What a chart, what a chart. Um, we've got the, the, the expiry for, for July coming shortly— uh, June, sorry. Um, uh, could provide a bit of volatility. I'm, I'm not massively interested in trading this market, to be honest, at the moment. Um, I haven't, you know, it's easy in hindsight, but I haven't been bearish at all really. You know, once we started breaking out of levels like this, it's— and this was only, you know, the big sort of over— well, before this month. Yeah, once it started breaking above that, I thought, you know, the biggest short squeeze ever, people getting caned. And then you find a bit more support holds up— resistance, sorry, holds up very well. And you get that final push, you know, from a technical point of view, you know, because people do trade it, I know that. And Um, you know, I, I wouldn't want to step on their toes. I'm not a massive oil trader, but for me, the way it looks like is, is that, you know, even $30 could, could happen. Bearish— I'm about to say bullish there— bearish below $27.89 is how I'd look at that. Uh, but really, I, I think if, if all is good in the world, and, and of course markets are forward-looking You know, of course it's not good in the world right now, but if everything's starting to come back, uh, or trying to come back to a bit of reality, we're still heavily discounted from where we were, um, pre-virus. So yeah, I, I think there's still a bit more recovery to come. However, I'm wrong in that bias below $28, and I'm even more wrong below $26 where we had this trendline break as well. I'd be super wrong if this goes and then we can push on and we're then back, back at $23.37. I've got that bit of indecision about oil. For the moment, I'm bullish because of how we finished last week, because how we've been pushing recently. But below the— this point by my, by my mouse, I've got to change that mind, and I'll be happy to do so, uh, as well. So yeah, those would be the levels that I'm looking at, uh, guys. I'm more than happy to, to go through a few more as and when I'll be doing it obviously each Sunday. You can see here T-notes hugging those highs, isn't it? Look at that lovely, uh, lovely little, uh, resistance level for that to go. You'd be looking at the, the highs of the year again. Um, you know, dovish central bank negative rates getting, uh, another shout out may be, uh, what helps that, uh, push on, or if stocks were to have a big downturn, uh, again. But for now, you know, the, this, this, the You know, the— probably the most important things I ever got told as a trader was, you know, start with your stop loss. You know, where does your stop need to be? Can you afford the trade? If not, fine. Loss of opportunity is better than loss of capital. Be a sniper. Wait for, you know, your opportunities that suit you. Look at the Ants macro menu. You know, what is your edge that's got you to where you are? And trade that. Trade it on days that you do better, on products that you do better. No need to mix things up. You know, why would Cristiano Ronaldo play defense? Because he's better playing attack. You know, why does Roger Federer play a one-handed backhand? Because it's his best weapon. He's not going to play two hands suddenly, you know, after his long career of winning everything. Much to my hate, I'm a big Andy Roddick fan. But stick to, you know, what's right for you at the right times, and, you know, let the market tell you what's going on. Comes on to that last point. The best piece of advice I ever got told— I've already said it— trade what you see and not what you think. So the euro at the moment for me is no man's land. It's a short below the trend line. The pound in summary is a short because of how we finished last week. Aussie dollar, wait and see. Trend line key, bit range-bound like S&P. S&P overall long term, I'm, you know, as bullish as they come. If I'm being completely honest, that can't really come in before 2893 again in the top end of this range. The NASDAQ, I mean, look at this. The NASDAQ is 7% away from the all-time high. Last week at its lowest, highest point, it was less than 5%. That's insane. Um, Dow obviously quite range-bound as well, and gold near those highs. Um, like I said, guys, any questions, please do let me know. It's great to be, uh, back on the, on the YouTube channel. I have to say I've missed it. But with the messages you guys have been sending on Twitter and the interaction on there, it's been great. I hope you can forgive my quarantine hair. Slick Rick, I've been called, or Ant Middleton, which I don't mind. But yeah, I hope everyone is doing well, and I really mean that. It has been a tough time for everyone. But yeah, any questions, please do let me know. Hope you have a great week ahead. Look out for Ant's Macro Menu because, you know, that is, is incredibly vital. It really does the work for you. And then, you know, follow this process, link it in with your own analysis. It's important to see what other people are looking at in the market because, of course, that's, you know, what creates bias as well. So hope you have a great rest of your Sunday and an even better week ahead.