Weekly Trading Set-ups 1st-5th June 2020

Hi guys, hope everyone is doing well and enjoying their weekend. Thank you for the comments on last Sunday's video. It's great to have that interaction and I look forward to the same this week. I thought we'd start the video today and going forward actually by just having a look how we finished the last week going into the new one. So as last week, last video video, last week's video, uh, finished. I've left those same lines on, on the chart, so feel free to, to go back. And this is something I quite like to do, is to, you know, test my analysis, see how the levels I put on, did they get respected, did they not, was there a reason for that. Um, and then take them all off, and we'll do that, take all the levels off and the markings off, and, and we'll start again. So we've got the euro here, um, obviously it looks relatively messy now with all these lines, but you know, it's, it's, it's helped me, you know, over the years just to be aware of those key levels. So, you know, I'm gonna— we're gonna keep doing this. Um, you can see last week, what was the, the Monday the 25th, but of course that was a bank holiday in the States and also the, uh, well, the UK. Um, but you can see here we pushed up, obviously, that the failure to close back below that 109 You can see this rectangular area was, was pretty key, um, and we, we didn't close there, we pushed on. We then came to that top of that range. The close above there was, was pretty key, but it was also the close above the 200-day moving average. We came back to test that level, the 110 handle on futures, before pushing up to really the next area of resistance. So it's good to see, you know, even on the daily chart, just these levels so well respected How we finished, uh, on, on Friday or the week, uh, was obviously pretty key. And also the month, when we come to our charts tomorrow, of course we were going to be on the 1st of June. So worth having a look at the monthly charts here as well, and we will do that briefly. But yeah, you can see here the close above here, relatively significant, um, above the, the highest level we sort of have marked on before. We're looking really to the 112 handle. Uh, quick look at the pound. Yeah, so here I was saying, you know, if we can get above that 122.65, uh, on a close, be looking for longs. Uh, we did get the close. It would have been a hairy one to, to hold, has to be said. But that has led to this pushing higher. Uh, and well, the way it finished on, on Friday, you know, I guess, yeah, a bit of resistance on, on this level here, which we could have had, have marked up, but you know, up towards 124.67 seems like it could be the next opportunity to, to book some profit on this trade if not already done so. And if it gets back below 122.65, likelihood is it's going to get a bit messy and drift lower. We'll come back onto that later on. Anyway, trend line on the Aussie held well. We also came up to test this massive, massive level as we, we know on, on the futures you know, you know, just highlighting how important that was last year, and then the breakdown in February. And actually also, I haven't actually— or didn't put it on last Sunday, um, but if we just put this on quickly, and again we'll go over this as we go through the Aussie shortly, we've got the 200-day moving average there as well. So a lot of resistance around here, uh, and the way we finished on Friday was right up at that top, finishing above the 200-day moving average for the first time since 17th of January. Um, so it hasn't really been consistently above that, uh, going back to December 2017 when it first started really pushing on. So be significant to see how we unfold this week, this coming week. The S&P, um, so here you can see we were talking about how we pushed up and if it came back to 2886, that'd be a good opportunity to get long, is what I was saying. Didn't quite happen, but we pushed on, took out the next target. Uh, we came back then to test our 29.95 level. We came back to test the 200-day moving average as support, and we finished on the high of the day, uh, on Friday. So yeah, it seems like we can now, the way we finished anyway, drift towards 31, uh, 100 there, and, and the highs that we had back on 4th of March again will come back to to do that. Um, the, the NASDAQ, you see I've got this area circled up. It came down to test it on the 27th, which would have been the Wednesday. Could have got in there, I guess. Um, and you know, I think I was in the video, I was saying unless it gets really below any of these levels, you can't really get excited about a long. It was very choppy, has to be said, last week. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 days in a row. Uh, and that's, you know, obviously not counting the, the Monday, the bank holiday Monday, which the cash market did push higher. So 5 days in a row of gains for futures on the NASDAQ, and most importantly, the first close we've got above our level here. All-time highs next week, that's what the chart's telling me anyway at this present moment. NASDAQ, the Dow breaking above the, the trend. We didn't quite get a retest of that level, so something to look out for. 200-day moving average a bit above here, and I would have well, we'll go through this shortly, but I'd have this area marked up, which we'll see. Uh, gold broke our trend line, retested it perfectly, came back down to test, uh, these, these kind of lows here. Um, I'm not actually quite sure why I've got, uh, 1701.2 marked up, but it was the 1700 handle. And also you've got some lows in the mix here. However, we did then get above, we came back to retest this trend line. What a trade and then back up to some other levels, uh, where I've had marks up, just these lows where you can see, I mean, very well respected here on gold. Certainly, um, having a look on the daily chart, we'll, we'll go through this in, in a bit more detail, uh, shortly. Oil, um, as I say each week, I'll leave it to the pros. I feel we get to $40, fill the gap soon. Uh, we're almost testing the, the high of the 11th of March and I don't think the sellers can get excited unless we get below 2911. And while that's a big range, you can see not much has really happened there except to push above on Friday on some, well, risk-on, shall we say. So let's revisit the euro. Um, what I would do is, as, and I would encourage everyone to do it, is just remove, remove everything, start again, you know, get your resistance levels above where we're trading, just horizontally marking up these now. Um, and of course they can be zones. You don't have to get them absolutely perfect. There's just— as long as you're aware of the levels that, you know, you're talking about. Um, some people talking about next stop 115. I would not believe that for now. Uh, some very, very key levels for us to get through. Um, and also worth noting, it's a, a very, very heavy data week. You've got the Fed, you've got non-farm payrolls, and you know, that's just a part of the data calendar. So there's going to be twists and turns. Yes, I think the focus is going to be US-China related. And of course, you know, with the, the riots we've seen in US, while I don't think that's big enough to have an impact just yet, it could be worth keeping an eye on how that develops. And you know, I'll be intrigued to see what Ant thinks in the macro menu later, and also that first briefing tomorrow. We've got the, um, we've got the Advanced and Professional Trader program starting tomorrow. So what a week for, for that with all the data and everything that's going on. Um, great time to, to sort of be involved in the markets and see how that unfolds. But anyway, Euro it finished, like I said, is, is bullish for me. Um, just looking, the fact that we closed above our, our range, uh, that had been holding price in really since 1st of April. So we, we got above that. Um, obviously the bigger move to the downside, while people will be looking to sell higher up, obviously we got our trend line on here and, and that needs to go at some point for that really to materialize. We didn't close below, uh, a level 109. So I'm still going to have that on. I'd be just looking at it like this. I mean, if— with— there's that saying, you know, don't catch a falling knife. And, you know, the way I'm looking at euro, obviously we come up to these resistance levels and they look good, but I'd rather be late to the party here. I'd rather, you know, sell. And let's just get a little circle here. I'd rather sell if we can come back below our resistance, resistance, resistance. Okay, false break, then we go lower. Or I'd sell below here, or, you know, better sell below that trend line. That's how I'd be, be looking for it. Can we push up and keep going on? Of course, you know, if we keep breaking these levels, then the momentum's to the upside. The important level for me, 1.1031, and of course, uh, daily closes for, for those points will, will be key. Um, we're pretty mid-range between the two next key levels However, just how we finished on Friday, you imagine we can continue to push on. But it's, uh, it's a new month, so obviously worth just having a look at that, uh, on the month of, uh, May. And when you look at the euro like this, you just think, oh God, we're just in a massive trend channel. You know, we've had a— I'm just gonna get this on just roughly, get that on. You know, not much has happened. When you look at it like that. Look, um, those false breaks down here, it's contained, you know. Let's, let's wait and see. But as, as we, we approach and, you know, come up to test the top end of this, uh, this trend channel, that could be the opportunity to get short again. We haven't really had, uh, well, we obviously had breaks, we haven't had a confirmed break from outside this, this trend channel since, you know, going back to 2018 when it, when it started to form. So, uh, yeah, it's, it's obviously a massive area of support. And even if we do get lower, you know, you've got those 2015, uh, and, and '17 lows to, to talk about. So euro finished the month quite nicely, but in, in the grand scheme of things, you know, you know, when looking at a monthly chart, that this push higher makes sense. I don't want to say— let's have a look over at the pound. Uh, I, I think we get 1.26 if risk on continues. There's a couple of barriers to that, uh, and of course one of those being the US-China stuff, which is starting to gather momentum. We were saying this last Sunday, you know my view on the S&P. I think we go higher, then we have a big headline China, uh, US that brings us lower. That then proves to be a non-story as Trump backtracks and we go higher into the election. Pound at the moment is, is heavily, uh, heavily influenced by risk uh, risk-on, risk-off. So hopefully for the continuation of this view that the pound goes higher, that US-China headline is, is a fair whack away. And of course there's a few hurdles this week with data, so no harm in just taking a little backseat and trading this potentially more medium term with those, you know, looking daily closes for any influence for that shorter time frame. But yeah, I mean, I, I would, to be honest, obviously I'd mark up let's just get rid of those, uh, arrows. I just have on this resistance level from the high of the, the 12th, little false break. Okay, looks bearish. Uh, 122.65 would be the area the bulls want to defend and bears get us below now. But I pretty much would leave this, would leave this the, the way I had it last Sunday. So it wasn't the, the most crazy week for, for the pound. Just have a have a look at the 200-day moving average. As we know in other currencies, that's relatively useful, um, to have on. So yeah, I— one test rejection, two test rejection. We should see what happens on that third. I think we get there. I don't think we're going to come back down to the 120s. Uh, I think that one will come soon. However, I am wrong in that view below 122.65 as well If we are to have a risk-off week, get your trendline on from those lows. Absolutely, from the low of the year, get that on. Uh, nothing from the top as yet, not that great potential for there. Had to be one Friday but didn't, didn't materialize. Uh, so yeah, trendline from the lows there. Bigger move to the downside would happen if that comes in. Uh, it'd also be a break below that magic 122.64. 125 on the futures. For now, uh, we have got a battle between 124.67 and 122.65, with that 123.83 a bit of a line in the sand. Uh, above 124.65, I expect a cleaner move up towards the 126.49. I don't think that could happen in a week, but then again, you know, on the, on the Tuesday, the, the pound moved from 121.65 $1.2364 up to $1.2364 to 200 pips. So it's not completely, uh, against the law of physics, shall we say. Aussie, uh, trend line I'm leaving, uh, the, these, this area of support above and below the trend line I'm having on as well, along with this new one from, uh, quite a bit of a double bottom really from the, the 22nd, uh, couple of Fridays ago and Tuesday there. Trend line starting to appear from those lows, albeit very steep. The levels of support I would look to keep on. How we closed is good for the bulls, but you would want— you'd want something more significant here to, to believe that we, we can push on. So I, I think it's still a bit, uh, no man's land-ish up here. I, I wouldn't blame people for wanting to sell targeting 6613 trend line, and if it can go, fine. Uh, but if you're not in a trade for the Aussie dollar, I don't think there's any harm in not looking to get in one right now. Yes, we've got the first close above the, the 200-day moving average, but it's not significant enough is how I would look at it. So just be slightly careful on that. If you are long, you've de-risked, where would I be looking to next? Well, you know, if we can get a nice clean push above here, some of these highs that we've got back from February, uh, this year most notably this kind of point around on the futures. It comes in at 6756. That's where I would be looking at for, for that market. I think if we do, you know, get a nice, nice push through, worth potentially having on this, this level starting, um, 26th of January 2018 into the high that we had on— or the high of the 31st of December, just because there could be a third test of that trend line. And then, you know, if you draw that up to come in this week, it could well come in, you know, same sort of point as here. Um, but, uh, yeah, let's review that next Sunday, just following the same sort of pattern as, as maybe the S&P has, which has pushed on. Um, obviously I'll leave those support levels on. Uh, we'll just make this now even a more important zone with the low that we had on Friday and that previous top of the range, 200-day moving average. So the bears need it below 2970 for, um, that continuation lower to then get back towards that— well, our previous line in the sand, 2890, 2886, this level here. Um, where are we looking to find resistance? Obviously got 31 hands. We've got this massive resistance level here as well, um, which, you know, we spent a bit of time around, you know, after breaking through initially on the 26th of Feb. That next move happened on the 5th of March lower. So 3114, you'd have people de-risking as we come up to that level, especially 14 points below that, uh, the handle. Uh, but that's going to be key. That's going to be key. This is where I think we have that next kind of push lower. The rejection— the way I see it is, uh, there's gonna be a rejection of this, then one of the headlines just captures that negativity more than maybe it would on another day, and we push lower. However, that said, a break this week above 3114, you've got to be aware of this level here. You can see we had the high on the 27th of Feb, the low that we had on the 8th of Jan, uh, 3182 is something where we're gonna have a resistance point. And also it's a big, big area just a bit above that 3213, the low from the 31st of Jan and the 24th of Feb. No point really getting these levels marked on just yet. Obviously if we do have an unimaginable push higher, then just, just be aware, you know, it doesn't take too long to mark those up. But yeah, I would say 3114 likely to cap the upside this week. However, daily closes, as we know, are key. And the downside for any real scary move for the bulls, we need it below, or they would need it below, 2995. The way we finished on Friday for the NASDAQ makes me think we get all-time highs this week, um, unless there's a big development with US and China. So yeah, whatever. What a recovery, uh, from, from that low. Uh, let's get the old currency tool from that lowest point, just in case you want to feel sorry for yourself and missing out, uh, a 44.5% move off those lows. Insane. First close above our level we've marked up on there. Um, we haven't had a close after closing above 93.42, so we haven't closed below 93.42 since. So that's another level I would have marked on. My trend lines here. I would have them on for guides, but that's kind of the picture I would look at here for, for, for the NASDAQ. Uh, so the next level to the upside, obviously you would potentially de-risk on the 26th of May high, but then you're looking at, you know, the high of 21st of February and then 97.56. Bit of a trend line on there to, to work— worthwhile having on. On those highs. Maybe, maybe, um, without a headline, we're going to, to, to those highs. Uh, Fed on the, on the Wednesday could well be also the, that, that, that, uh, that point that leads us to, to a move lower. I can't quite off the top of my head remember the, the last Fed, uh, meeting, but we did push lower off of that on both the S&P. And, um, I think it's the 12th of May, wasn't it? You can see here, 12th we push lower, 12th we push lower. It's a common theme, isn't it? You know, buying into a Fed meeting, selling as they underdeliver. So all-time highs by Wednesday, come off for the rest of the week. Yeah, maybe. And then a little recovery on non-farm payrolls after that. Uh, so therefore the Dow, you've got to imagine we can get up to test that previous low, 2590, uh, 25934, uh, 25,934. I was thinking that, um, how to say that correctly. It's been a long weekend in the sun. Um, but yeah, 200-day moving average, let's, let's have that marked on because that's, uh, you know, what people are going to look at as we get to that point. Also worth noting, you've got the the high of the 6th of March. Uh, as, as if that is to break, then you have a bit of a cleaner move, I would say, up to, to the high here on the 5th of March. So worth keeping an eye on. The bulls, uh, are happy at the moment. They're very happy with how we finished Friday. The bears need us below 24,769. We've got our midpoint, we've got a lower range there. I would kind of have it like that, to be honest. Um, I think that's, that's, that's pretty good. Where we finished on Friday was, was key. Let's have a quick look over at the month, uh, on, on equities. Uh, let's just remove— actually, I don't want to remove that because we can review that again next week. But just looking here, the fact that we, you know, closed above a few of these levels where we haven't, uh, been, you know, since, well, obviously before February, you know, looks, looks pretty good. Good little finish to Friday. Hey, Headlines, uh, will be the only thing that stops equities, and new headlines as well. Gold, um, it's going to remove everything, uh, as you know, you can see here on the futures, you've got your double top, you've got your, your trendline break, and then false break of, of that, which it turned out to be. However, it was a good move lower in that day. We're above it. We've then found support, pushed higher. Uh, it's a zone from 17.42 to the low that we had under there, so 17.44 up to this level, line in the sand. We need back below the trend line, 17.15. Yeah, that looks pretty good to me, just having these points marked up. And obviously those lows here, that's how I'd have, have gold for me. Nice finish on Friday to give us a bullish start on Monday. You would, you would say being close above here. However, are we just in a range and we're just above that midline? Um, I would say resistance 1742. If that doesn't hold, 57 isn't the next level. Uh, if we get back below the trend line, likelihood it's just going to be a bit messy. Someone asked for the silver, which has been on obviously on a, on a tear, on a tear last month. Um, I mean, I mean, look at the recovery from 19th of March. But yeah, Uh, the May— where's the 1st of May? Here. Big push, big push, big, big push higher. A decent finish to Friday as well. Um, you'd imagine the double top from, from 2020, uh, make it a triple from September, the end of September. Looks like that's on the horizon for, for silver. I would stay— if I am long, would be happily stay long as long as we're above $18, $19. Uh, you know, you can see the significance of that holding up. We're now back above there. I wouldn't get scared, you know, even if we do just drift down back into this level. And as long as you don't get a daily close below there, it does feel like this market gets up to those highs, certainly on the futures, uh, of February earlier this, this year. If I was bearish on, on silver, I mean, you could argue you know, once we had, you know, failed here, that could have been the opportunity to, to get short. I mean, just looking at that, but yeah, it's, uh, it got real messy around there. Cleaned out this range, so that's now the, the level of support that I would look to have on. Yeah, I'd be pretty confident just looking at this that we, we can continue to push higher. Not to say that 1819 is going to hold to the tick, uh, but you feel like if that comes back down we get an area of support and we push on and yeah, up to, to that level. And then maybe even $20 gets started— starts getting talked about on that. Oil, uh, yeah, I think we get $40. Uh, yes, $36.43 has to go for that. Uh, $29.11 has to go for, for this trade to be completely wrong. Good break. I still think $29.11 holds. Uh, just putting this on to the 240-minute. You can see, um, you know, the— we are just creeping up. We hit this resistance point that we had from the 9th of April, big level. Uh, to the downside, is there any trend lines that'd be worth having on? Doesn't look all that clean, to be honest. To be honest, for oil, I feel it's, uh, it's obviously got its mind of its own over the last— well, 2020, it's been on a hell of a journey, isn't it? Uh, but yeah, I think we get the gap fill. Uh, so that's your key level. Do I think that could happen in one day, 36s to 41s? No, in oil, yeah. Um, I think there could be a decent short if we obviously break that sort of— call it a zone, but obviously below $29.25 and $29.97, $23 is how I would look. A quick look at the, the DAX just to wrap it up. You can see how we finished, uh, on, on Friday just in the, in the positive. Um, it is a big resistance level up here though, so it wouldn't surprise me that actually, you know, we, we can push lower from here. However, you know, my view on stocks is still risk-on, so I wouldn't necessarily be selling into it. I'd more be looking to see how we would react if we come here, or what happens if we get the daily close above that level. But you can see just how important that these lows are, uh, and then obviously if that does break, then you could get a bigger move to the upside. So it's, it's one where I wouldn't be in a trade right now for the DAX, uh, I mean, I wouldn't look to get into one right now if I wasn't already in one, um, just because of the significance of this level. Yes, we closed below one resistance, two resistance 3, uh, levels, 3 tests that failed to get us above there. Um, but, uh, yeah, it is obviously very key. So, uh, I don't know, I don't know. Yeah, bullish above, it's bearish now, but I don't really believe in, in the risk, risk, uh, risk-off coming off just yet. So, you know, I'm gonna stay away from, from a short. And, you know, that's how I go about my trades is, you know, fundamental view bias when and when does that mark— when, when does the, the technicals agree with, with that decision? So yeah, that's how I would look to go through that. Anyway guys, a bit of a long one today, 26 minutes to some of the crypto. So I'll do the usual and, uh, um, put the timestamps on. But obviously if you're listening to this, you've probably already seen the timestamps anyway. But I hope you have all had a great weekend. I hope you continue to enjoy the rest of yours. I hope you all continue to, to stay safe, and I look forward to interacting with you guys in the comments section and also seeing you all again next Sunday.