Weekly Trading Set-ups 21st - 25th September 2020

Hi guys, uh, good afternoon. It is the 20th, Sunday the 20th of September. Hope we're well, had a good week, looking forward to the next one. It's good to be back. Uh, we'll start with the usual, sort of going through the products one by one, looking at some levels for the week ahead that could come into play and what could happen if they are to break or hold or whatnot. Any questions, as usual guys, just get them in the the comment section below, and I'll do my best to get back to those throughout the day. Uh, Euro here, um, it's set up quite nicely, I think, for a bigger move to happen. But I think we also need to take into consideration that a big move hasn't happened for quite some time. I mean, this range, if we talk about arriving in that at the end of July, we're coming to the end of September and we're pretty much exactly there. So where am I looking at for a decent move to occur. Well, we've got this trend line. If you watched the, the FOMC on, uh, the interest rate decision on Wednesday, we were talking about this trend line here, weren't we, which obviously hadn't been touched yet, but you can see it did on Thursday. Uh, so that has to go, you know, that has to go. Also, you would, you would argue that the, uh, the sort of 117 handle has to be broken as well for a considerable move lower. So it's a bit of a zone, and just be aware of the whole sort of false break. But if you get a daily close below the trend line, daily close below the— what's at 117, I think you then get 115 again. So that would be a potential trade for all of those dollar lovers out there. On the flip side, where it's— we failed to break the trend line, we pushed higher where could we then see another high for the year? For me, if, uh, if someone isn't already in that trade, it would be if we can get above sort of the 119.20s, the high that we had back on the 10th of September and also the 15th of September. So those would be the two trades that I'll be looking at this week: long, uh, above the, the sort of last week's high back towards the 120, or a short below the trend line. And whether it can get below the 1.70 or not, we have to wait and see, uh, but towards the, uh, 1.15 handle. So I think it's set up quite nicely, to be honest, the euro. I wouldn't want to be on Sunday's open clicking into a trade. I'd be waiting to see how it develops. But that's how I would, would have that euro up there. Let's just have a quick look to see if we want to put on any moving averages. Uh, as well. I know the, the pound's got one of interest. Let's have a quick look if we're near anything. The 100, obviously not very close. 50, okay, 50-day, it's worth having on, I would say. Just gives me more reason to want to go short below the trend line, to be honest. So looking at that euro there, just being aware on the weekly chart as well, we're still above this trend line, uh, that broke from the high that we had back in, uh, 2008. And you can see we have broken through that as well, so— and, or still finding support after the breakthrough, I should say. So a break of all of that, uh, and you might well see that unwind. At the moment, it's not ready to go just yet, uh, and keep an eye out on, on comments from the ECB, of course. You know, we, you had the, the Lane comments around that 120, but then obviously the ECB, uh, on that day anyway spiked higher. They sort of contradicted those comments about, you know, they are looking at the interest at the, the currency rate or they're not. So any developments there will be worth keeping a watch on. Moving on to the other dollar pair, uh, or the main dollar pairs, pound. Um, I, I will go long if we close above this whole zone. But we can't. So it's a short for me right now. Um, and I'm not an advocate of going short at the open, but with all this second lockdown talk, uh, really gathering pace— I just read an article, or a tweet I should say, from, uh, comments from Sadiq Khan saying London should go into a lockdown tomorrow. Uh, so it's going to gather pace. I mean, that view is ridiculous in my opinion, but Anyway, what's the chart telling me? The chart is telling me we've just come, uh, back to test a massive area of support as resistance, failed to get above there, failed to get above the 130 handle, uh, and we're likely, in my opinion, now to push back down to the low of the month. That in itself is a key zone along with, um, sort of the 10th of June high. So keep a watch obviously on that. It's, it's decision time, uh, for, for the bears. Can they really follow it through. I think if you are short on the retest of this level, I think the target should be the low of the month with the stop above the 130 on the futures. Levels below there, just keep a close watch on these sort of previous highs turned to support, talking here at the sort of the 9th, uh, 13th of July, the low of the 22nd, and then, uh, of those sort of similar days, the lows of those as well coming in around the sort of 126, 125s, um, as well. So Yeah, it's looking, looking well. If you're short the pound, it's looking, it's looking nice the way we finished it. Without that trend line on, no, not really. Uh, let's get the moving average on here because there's been a couple that, uh, people have been looking at. We'll just do the quick run through. We've got the 200-day, which, uh, is obviously an area of support here. So a break of that further downside, uh, is what I'd be looking for. Uh, let's have a quick look to see if the 100 is— well, 50 are close enough for anything to be worthwhile. Okay, yeah, the 100's also coming in around that low. The 50, uh, is the one that I want to bring into the question here. It's almost like one of these moving averages is going to give way. I'll just turn the 50 into a yellow, into a yellow one. You probably can't quite see that clearly now, but basically, uh, I like the long if we get above, and, and most importantly, daily close above. Uh, I don't mind the short at the open now. Uh, if you wanna— if you prefer getting in a better entry, you know, be more patient, more confirmation I think it's a short below the, the, the 200, uh, and the, and these lows as well. So the pound at the moment not looking too good, um, wouldn't surprise me to see some, uh, immediate pressure upon the open. But you know, you got, you got a couple of, uh, a couple of good, good trades there. The, the long, uh, not that I think it's gonna happen this week, but you'd be looking for that sort of low, the 4th of September, to come in and some decent other levels, previous highs, before you get back to that sort of 1.35 election high from back in December last year. Right now for the pound, it's not looking good. The euro, interestingly though, on for, you know, any dollar strength, is not really having it just yet though. So just bear that in mind. If the euro was to say break 1.19, you know, part of that reason is going to be dollar weakness, which might also see some risk-on come in, which might see people buying the pound, selling the dollar, and actually the pound's downside is limited a touch. But lockdown fears, Brexit talks, it's not looking very good for the pound at the moment. But that said, 1, 2, 3, 4 days last week, uh, were green. So just be steady. But, uh, at the moment it's definitely a bearish bias. The Aussie looks similar really to the euro, doesn't it? Not too much going on in recent times. Um, I, I'm an advocate here for a short on, on sort of the breaks of, of these similar sort of trend lines here. You know, the euro, we've got that on, haven't we? Really nice, really respected. Market's looking at it, uh, or it's just a massive coincidence. I'm preferring the first part of that. So a break of that, I like the idea of short targeting the lows of all of that, with the main sort of target being the, the high that we had back on the 10th of June. A decent, you know, trade there. Stop the other side of the trend line is how I'd look at it. And then on the flip side, you can see quite clearly the same sort of highs that euro and the pound have had, where they've just not— you've had a very strong ceiling along above there towards the high of the year. So it's set up nicely. Previous lows, uh, would be that the top— the targets, uh, for the short and highs for the, the long. If we are to get above the, the 1st of September high, just be of course aware of these levels going back to July 2018. But on the Aussie it's looking, looking quite good. Um, moving averages, 21-day, uh, is, is relatively well respected in, in, in this market as well. You can see there's a few like the 50s a fair bit below, 100 you'd expect that even lower, uh, and like, well, yeah, 200 sort of similar. So it's not the same really as, say, the pound, the euro, where I would have the moving averages on. For the Aussie, it doesn't look as as enticing. Uh, dollar yen, um, decent move, decent move last week. Really sort of, uh, kicked on to, in this case, the downside. This is, you know, dollar yen rather than yen dollar. Um, bit of a break. I mean, you could argue it's a trend line. I think you would have had to sort of had that on very tight, and it, it wasn't really for me the reason it broke. But you can see we we've now taken out the, the low that we had on the 31st of July. Bit of relief here. Are we going to see some dollar strength this week? Potentially. But on the other, on the flip side, if I think actually equities are likely to come under some pressure, maybe the yen short again to continue down to the lows that we had from sort of March time could well be ones to look at. So just bear in mind, a break of the, the low of the month or lower last week or the low of 31st of July, whichever way you want to look at it, you're sort of looking towards now the 12th of March low, 10th of March low, and the Friday before that, the, the 9th of March low as well. On the flip side, where would I, uh, not mind a short? And for me, this is the reason why we actually had the break, is just the break of all of this support point. So if we are to get back above the 28th of August low, then for me it's, it's an opportunity to, to get long. That said, it's also, you know, it's a key decision point. It's a line in the sand. So it's like, it's like with the, the pound, um, that we saw, and I'll go back to that in a moment. It's, it's long above, short below. It's like the pound here, short, long. It's like the euro, short, long. It's these levels. I think at the moment FX are really, really nice. Something's got to give, and it's not giving right now except maybe in the pound and the yen. I'm not sure many people saw the end coming, to be fair, but there's opportunities to come there. Um, you know me, I'm, uh, I'm as bullish as they come on equities. Um, you know, I definitely, you know, am a, I'm a fan of the, the overall picture being to the upside. Um, let's have a quick look here on, uh on the S&P. I'm quite sure why the daily chart has that last candle as green, just because I guess the contracts are getting, uh, moved together. So it's not gonna look as amazing here. You can see here, this is this recent time, it did actually of course take out that low. It's a bit annoying here, um, but that said, let me just try something. Okay, there we go. Um, so yeah, how the, the S&P finished— I mean, for a bullish point of view, it didn't finish below last week's, uh, 9th of September low, which is good. We are pricing in a little bit of a gap down, uh, in, in US equities. Below all of this, I mean, I think there's one more, one more area where I'd feel comfortable getting long, and that really is that sort of high that we had from the 23rd of July here, um, below there and a daily close. So Monday would be the key here where we close. I don't think it looks too good to the upside though. Uh, I, I'm a, I'm a fan of getting long above this, these highs that we had. You might have seen my tweet on, on Wednesday, talks about it in the Fed. I think we close above that region, uh, and it's all-time highs that, that come in. I really think it's, uh, as simple as that, to be honest. And that's just the beauty of Sometimes letting the market tell you what's going on. You have a view, my case is bullish, where do I want to get long? Above 34.14 on this chart, on the daily close, doesn't happen, I can't get long. And what happens then in the Asian session is the rejection after trying to make that high. We come back down, take the low out, and it's decision time. It really is, isn't it? You know, you, you talk about big levels, you've got them on here. Let's have a look at the moving averages. You got the Uh, let's just check the colors just to make sure here. Let's just go back one side. So you got the blue, red, green. So yeah, the 21-day, as we know, has been broken. The 50 finishing below that, and the 200 a fair while down. Um, yeah, so looking at this below 3273 on a daily close, uh, I think we, we would then at least see a test of 31.78, uh, which is, you know, decent, decent move lower. And then it is again decision point. There's going to be twists and turns in this market, you know. Vaccine rumors, I think, where, uh, you know, someone had an adverse reaction. They don't know whether it's from the vaccine or not, but I think that's weighing on equities a touch. And, um, you know, it's not looking too good at the open, but things can change, and things can change in an instance. But But yeah, below 3273, I think you get, uh, another, well, 100-point, uh, move to the downside actually. Um, but that said, if it stays in this zone, uh, I will get long above 3414, uh, towards those highs. So yeah, we'll have to see how that pans out, but those are the levels I'm looking at. The, um, the NASDAQ, its 50-day moving average, we finished of course below there as well. It finished pretty much bang on the weekly, the previous sort of weekly lows. But it doesn't look too good. However, to the upside, it's the same sort of thing. You've got your 21-day, you've got a really important ceiling. You know, if you're only interested in going long and you're not long, you know, get out. Get out. Wait to, you know, break— breaks above here to get in. You know, you don't necessarily have to look to, to catch that falling knife, uh, below. And like I said, we're expecting, uh, gap down, obviously would take out last week's low, and then you're really looking towards— and let's just bring this in here— you know, solid area of previous support back from the 27th of July, uh, as well. Just be aware, any of these moves do come down, you, you know, you are looking at previous all-time highs, which would potentially attract people to get long. I don't personally think it's the start of a massive move lower, I don't, um, but I think we're, you know, we're fine to look for some sort of, uh, correction. I think Apple finished in, uh, a bear market, didn't it? Is that right? But yeah, NASDAQ 12% off the, the highs, 20% for the NASDAQ, back down to 10,000. I'd be surprised if we get 10,000, but I'd like the look of it there as it stands anyway. Uh, Dow Jones, um, there was a nice trend line on, I believe, I believe, which broke, um I've just got to try and find where exactly it was from now. Hmm, maybe it's on a different chart. But anyway, that it sort of retested that whole area, didn't it? It's much like the, the other US equities. You've got a nice ceiling. I'd get long above there. You've got a solid area of support here, so keep a watch on that, uh, as well. I think it might have been that trend line anyway. Uh, yeah, solid area of sort of that double top, remember, here from the 15th. And 23rd of July. Below there, I, I think the doors open towards— what's that— $26,000. Uh, and then obviously just taking into consideration these other lows, you sort of go back, put it on the daily chart, and, and they really are our targets, I would say. So for me, the long— I'm not looking to catch the, the bottom here for the, for the Dow, for the NASDAQ. I'm just surfing the areas. These are the points where I'd feel comfortable getting in long. Other than that, I'm sort of staying away. I'm expecting a bit of downside risk, uh, to start the week. There's no guarantee though. There has certainly been, uh, in these uptrends a lot of the time Monday pushes lower in Asia but recovered in, in Europe and then into America. American session pushes on. So daily close on Monday, very key. So keep an eye on that. Um, the DAX, let's have a quick Quick look at the old DAX. Is it starting to turn? That is the question. That is the question. A couple of times is failing to get above the, the previous high that we had here on the 21st of July. Oh, I mean, that— it looks toppy. It certainly looks toppy. Um, trend line on, I would say, is worth having, you know, just starting, uh, here on the 15th, getting that in. It's nicely respected. A break of that, US equities maybe to lead it and and sell off sharply into the beginning of the week, I think the DAX is likely to follow. Uh, but on the flip side, equities, you know, they find a bit of a floor. I, I do like the idea of a long on the close above 13,000-ish. Uh, one— what's that, 313, uh, towards the all-time high. So it's set up nicely. Break of the trend, just look for those previous lows. So here, 4th of September. 21st of August, etc., etc. A nice area of support, 31st of July. I think if you're not in any positions right now, there are some nice, nice opportunities. I like the idea of shorts, uh, on, on equities. Um, however, Monday close is key. I like the pound short, probably at the open. But if not, um, you've got those points marked up. The euro is for me a wait and see. Long above 119, short below the trend line. Aussie, same sort of thing really, isn't it? Long above, short below. And the yen, at the moment, if you're not in, I think wait for that decision point or the short below last week's low. Uh, let's have a quick look at gold. That gold, um, yeah, it, it— I, I think I, I'm not sure if I tweeted it or not, but I'd like the idea of both gold and silver longs I think silver was looking more towards 26s, uh, which is this sort of region here on a false break just because how many times it's been tested. So I'd like price to come below and go back above. But yeah, for gold, um, you got this trend line on, it's nicely respected. A close of the day above that, I think we push to the downside. It's not as clean trend line-wise, um, but I'd use it as a bit of a guide. Decision time is coming. What's going to happen? Is it going to be dollar strength that leads this lower? Is it going to be, uh, risk on, uh, risk off that maybe pushes this higher? Decision time, is it really? Look, the, the highs are getting lower, the lows are getting higher. Something's got to give. Just be aware of the, the time of the day of the break if you want to get in on an intraday. You'd ideally want it to be sort of post-gold open, 1:20 UK time, before making that decision. The, the beauty is, of course, on the break of those, you've already got your targets marked up in and sort of the lows that make that trend line. And that's how I'd go with it. It's, uh, I'm not going to commit to a decision, uh, but look, if you can give me 1900, uh, on the false break— and just what I mean by the false break would be, uh, you know, price to, to take it out, to come back above on the— on these are daily candles— and then look for, for that push to, to continue. Because I think gold has still got some more upside to come. Oil, um, interesting finish on Friday. I mean, the way it finished for me is, is a bit of indecision. Um, it doesn't look as good as maybe the previous few days are suggesting. Um, so it could be that we just start to see a bit of an unwind. I'd forgive you for not wanting to, to get too involved in, in this market just yet though. However, I've always said I like the, the long above 44 or towards 50. I'm waiting patiently for that sort of 2-to-1 stop below, um, sort of $42, I would say, for, for the, for the long. Um, so yeah, I like it here. However, if we do start seeing unwind, just be aware of some of these previous areas of what were resistance now to act as support on the way back down. It's right on a decision point, isn't it? I am So maybe wait to see how, you know, we go over the weekend. If we are to see risk-off, you might start to see oil turnover. And if you are to see some dollar strength as well, maybe led by, you know, the pound under pressure, also sort of, you know, the flight to quality, or the euro to come back towards this trend line. Oil is not going to like that, and it could obviously come down as well. On the flip side, bit of risk-on equities brush off any weekend fears. Some comments, I'm sure, going to keep coming out of OPEC+ as they were towards the end of last week. They could end up being positive and we push on. And if we have a week like we did last week, you know, it's, it's incredibly bullish to look at. Last market just to, to mention here, I don't necessarily focus on it too much. I actually did have a long in copper, which I scratched it, uh, when I got long here on the retest. Just came back and was messy. And these are a number of weeks, so I can't be too annoyed that it's now all the way up here because it would have stopped me out. But that has pushed on and you can see is really, uh, sort of, you know, continuing here to, to make that push to new highs for the year. So for any copper traders, you're, you know, looking back towards 2018 levels now. And as long as it stays above that previous high that we had from 2019, I think you're gonna have to be happy to stay in this one. Uh, and that's where I would sort of trail my stop. But below, it looks pretty good for, for now. I guess another level to be aware of closer is the sort of high that we had from the 18th of June 2018 week. That's not a million miles away. So yeah, keep an eye on that if you're long copper. Congratulations, it's looking pretty good. Uh, as usual guys, any questions, please get them, get them in the chat below. More than happy to, to answer those today. But anyway guys, hope you all have a great rest of your Sunday if you're watching it today, or a great, uh, week ahead if you're watching tomorrow. Take care, guys.