Weekly Trading Set-ups 22nd -26th June 2020

Hi guys, happy Sunday and also happy Father's Day to all of those in the UK that are celebrating. I hope you've all had nice days and great weeks as well. Same process, we'll run through the charts, how they finished, uh, from Friday, and a look ahead at, at some key levels for the coming days. I was just on Twitter briefly a moment ago and saw the German R number has gone from 2— well, from 1.79 to 2.88 based on the 4-day average. So that, along with, uh, well, that development along with some other headlines, and, and we are looking at, uh, US stocks at least, uh, are going to gap down at 1% on the open as it stands at the moment. So something to, to bear in mind. However, cast ourselves, uh, back 7 days ago we got down, uh, and actually finished up on the week. So unless there's going to be an actual lockdown, I think the downside is going to be limited personally. Uh, we'll have to wait and see, and the chart's going to tell us that as well. Um, let's have a quick look over how we did finish on Friday. Uh, the euro hit, uh, my area I marked up here to the tick. Um, on 1.1189, fantastic, weren't it? Really good, really good area of, uh, of support. Is this gonna hold? We have to, to see. Um, it's a tricky one with the dollar, um, in terms of overall, uh, direction for this, uh, well, not just this market but the dollar in, in general, whether it's going to be, um, a safe haven as the second lockdown, the second wave fears come back into the market, or is it going to be the Fed are going to do more than any other central bank, then the dollar weakens? It's going to be hard, it's going to be hard to say. But below, uh, 1.1189, then we would be looking down to this next area along with these highs. So, uh, would I be long here? I think I would have liked to see, uh, a false break. So maybe in the coming days I will prefer to be long around that area. And this is cleaning this up a bit on the euro. You can see, look how choppy it was really on the way down. And we probably now just be looking at any of these areas. I mean, to be honest, it's, it's messy, but above— and I would probably have it more as a zone— but above this area here, I would you know, be happy to say on a daily close that we can then push back up to the recent high that we had on the 10th of June. Now, however, below here— and I talked about this last Sunday— just these previous highs that on the daily haven't come back really to get a test, I'd be, be looking for, for those potentially to come in this week if we close below 1.1189, that high that we had back on the 27th of March. Just gonna have a look here on that weekly time frame for, for the euro. And you can see, uh, depending, I think, where you, where you get this, this trend line on from— let's just get that drawn up roughly— you can see, uh, just how well respected— this is going back to May 18th. Do we just get the rejection there where the sellers can come back in hindsight? Uh, will obviously tell us whether it was the opportunity or not. But even more so here in the weekly, you can just see the importance of this level. Now, is this just an area where the buyers then come back in? And also just be aware the high that we had of the 26th of May week as well. So big area support coming up for the euro. That goes, and then you could be forgiven thinking a quicker move comes back down towards these highs that we had back on the back end of April around that 110 handle on the future. So euro set up nicely, uh, for an interesting week on such an important level. I would be bullish if we get some nice price action around here, or be late to the party above 112.82 for the next opportunity to get long towards those highs. Yeah, but below here you'd struggle to, to be, to be bullish. For the pound, it broke that trend line, did it broke the trend line quite nicely on, um, on Friday and had a lovely retest of that whole level. Uh, we also broke this area, came back to retest the low the 15th of June. So yeah, I mean, you can, you can see again the 200-day moving average worked quite well. We came back to test that early on, on, uh, I think it was Tuesday, was that be the 16th? 16th. Um, Monday found support on our area we circled up here, then resistance on these previous lows, 200-day moving average, closed below the low of the week on Thursday. Bank of England didn't really deliver enough, uh, to breathe some light into the pound. Those lows turned to resistance, we came back down, we're now below the trend line. And you would say also the fact that we're below the 29th of May high the next area to be aware of is that 122.65. And if we do have, um, risk-off on the open, which we're looking like we're going to, let's be honest, I would say by the end of Monday we probably are trading at 122.65, which is a very key area where people will be looking to get, uh, long or, or take profit from a technical point of view. This really was key for the re— the rally we had at the back end of May, a month ago. So back below there, uh, just be aware of 121.58 and then the low 120.80. So we've still got these levels marked up below. To the upside, I would probably leave everything I've got on there. I don't necessarily think we're gonna test the, the 200-day moving average, but you know, why not still have it on because it has been important. At the moment you've got to be bearish. Where does a long come back in? I would say, uh, firstly above the trend line, which obviously gets higher as we, uh, go along the week or weeks. This looks like a quite key level, 124.67. So above these two areas, is that going to come on Monday? I would say it's unlikely. However, last Monday things weren't looking too good and we finished the day positive, so time will tell. AUD/USD choppy, but we did come lower. Um, yeah, still on that zone, isn't it, where it's, it's, it's messy. What was the Monday, the 15th? You can see we pushed higher. It's worth just having a note, and we'll go on to this in US equities in a moment. There was the contract rollover, uh, last week, so the equities will look slightly different. But you can see here, this is just a 240 of the Aussie dollar. So choppy around there, you know. There's, there's times to trade certain markets, and, and the Aussie perhaps is one to potentially leave alone. Um, 200-day moving average, these lows here look interesting. Uh, the double bottom that we had from Monday, which is also, uh, the, the 2nd of June. So keep a watch out for, for that. I'm just going to remove everything here on the Aussie dollar except that 200-day moving average. I think that's a good line in the sand as you can get for the Aussie. So below there, then a quicker move to that 200-day moving average. Be late to the party, you know, my new saying. Uh, and that would be for me above the, the 69 handle, but that then has to be taken into account as more of a zone you would say, uh, around this whole area here. But yeah, if we can at some point get, uh, next week above this level, then I would expect, uh, you know, the higher the— well, I guess that's the recent highs that come in into play as well. But you can see here we found a bit of support back on the 16th, that Monday low. If that does give way, then then the, the low— oh, sorry, the lower Monday here, but, uh, the lower Tuesday, if that does give go— give way, that lower the Monday comes in. And then, as we know from that daily chart, if that breaks through, then it could be a clean sweep down towards the 67 handle. So quite a big move. Uh, the S&P, um, you know, I like on, on this Sunday to review how my levels played out. Unfortunately, I've got to Uh, well, this isn't how it paid out because obviously the contract rollover, and you can see how we finished on the Friday. We actually finished on the low of the day on the future. So let's just clear up a few of these levels. We have to start again for, for the equities, which is fine, which is fine. Let's just, uh, bring in the S&P here. I have to look at my 240. But you can see that just the way we, we traded on, uh, on Friday, for me quite interesting that we came to this area of support and we closed a bit below it. I mean, for me that's still testing. You can't say it's a clean break. But also we have the gap down that we're going to see on, uh, on the open. So other areas certainly on the 240 to be aware of, I'll just mark up Obviously the low last week, this whole area, more of a zone, isn't it? Decent enough price action. Where would I be happy getting long? Well, I don't know whether— I mean, the way Monday played out last week was, you can see we, we had that gap down and it was a close below. And it's almost like you have these areas now where they're being good support, so obviously acts as, in theory, resistance. So if we were to get back above 2983, that's where, you know, you're comfortable to, to look for long. So where does that come in today, or I should say tomorrow, for me is 3060. Can we then get back above that area and then push on? We have to see, of course. I think a lot of people are, are bearish on the open, rightly so. So we probably got gap down, and I would say we, we can, uh, we can most likely get a test of the the, the low of last Monday, relatively early on. What happens from there? Well, we have to, to mark up some of these points. You've got the 2900 handle, you've got some of these previous highs that we broke through on the 17th, and then suddenly, you know, you're looking back down towards these levels. That seems so far away, of course. I don't think that does happen. Um, for me, it is going to be a fundamentally driven market on the, the sort of second wave which leads to potentially a second lockdown. As cynical as it sounds, if there's not a second lockdown, I think stocks still go higher, uh, but we do need to price in the possibility of that second wave materializing into a lockdown. So stocks bearish on the open on the Monday, uh, on Sunday evening, this evening, uh, into Monday expected. Uh, for the NASDAQ, how did we finish on Friday? Of course similar, um, but tech had a not a bad week actually, finished, uh, positive. Again, it doesn't actually look like that. I might need to, to change the settings on that, uh, for the NASDAQ as it did finish low. But you can see here on the 60-minute what— and I mean, it's choppy, agreed, but big area of support here. Now if this zone goes, well, you could expect to flush down like we, we saw at the beginning of the week that fell, obviously fell on Thursday, sorry, and then the Monday. But then we had that recovery, and this is what I was saying with the, the S&P. Get an area where the support has held well, we then push down on the gap, fine. Let's get along above there, get the close, come back and test it, and then we're off to the races. So for the NASDAQ, with the, the gap lower that we're going to see, it might well be price pushes lower. We obviously have to target some of these areas as is fine. But at some point we may then recover, and it's above 99,015 that I'm bullish again. Let the market tell you what's going on. Um, and then obviously 10,000 in the mix there as well. NASDAQ above 10,000, who'd have thought that not long ago? Uh, incredible. Uh, but yeah, these would be the, the areas that I'd mark up for the NASDAQ. Can we get to last week's low? Yeah, I would say so. Can we get there on Monday? I reckon it's a possibility it happens early on. I think we're going to have a risk-on, risk-off start. Just whether that can actually materialize into the whole week— it didn't last week. For the Dow Jones, uh, you can see a bigger close below our support level, and we'll have this as definitely more of a zone. Really held fantastically Thursday, big reaction off that level. We then pushed higher only to come back down on Friday. Areas of support would have been lovely here to potentially look for a long. However, we're going to close below. Interestingly now, for, for the, for the Dow, you can see we're not far away. I was just looking at this on 240 and thought for a second it's a daily chart. Uh, but interestingly, you can see these— this is where we gap down, and it's the same reaction as we saw in the both the S&P and the NASDAQ. Let the market tell you when, when to get in for these longs. If you're like me and still bullish overall, where's that place to be in? And same here, above 25708. So for the S&P, we want it above here. For the NASDAQ, we want it above, uh, above, above that area. Sorry, on the 60 looks clearer. And then same for the Dow. However, if we do push lower, just be aware 25,000 looks good, then the low last week. And then as we put this onto, uh, just a longer time frame, the chart, you can obviously— the new contract gets a bit messy. Um, so yeah, just be aware of some of those previous levels, uh, to the downside that could come in. Uh, let's have a look at oil. How did we finish? Um, got that trend line that I had on, or potential trend line, and it shows here that other people in the market were looking at it. And, and on the 60-minute, just then flicking through, good reaction, good reaction, break, comes back on Friday, 5 o'clock. Look at that, moved a dollar and a bit higher, uh, for, for oil. So trend line still worth having on. Is it bullish? We're above, yes. However, it didn't quite get to our higher point there. Well, actually, what was the high back on Friday on the futures? 40.26. Yeah, a lot of support below here. And I think when looking at this trend line for oil, if we come back below it, then especially if the risk-off develops, then, you know, we could get a bit of a flush lower, to be honest. I, I think overall, you know, it's— if we have a look at what could happen this week if we do push down, and I know you, you're looking at this and go from 41 to 34, um, you know, what I'm about to say is, you know, below 30, basically below this area, 34.86, I'd be bearish. I know it's so $7 away from the top end of the range, rather be bullish above. But I'd be happy to be late to— he got a good sort of line in the sand where I'd have $36.96. And, you know, given that really, that previous high around here, then these lows, you know, that would be my area. If we were to find support here, then we could get that further push through. Below $37 on a close of the day, $34.86 for me comes quicker. and then you can get these bigger moves down towards that $30 handle where we had such good support back in the beginning. Um, sorry, the, the end of May, the end of May. Above $41 next week, just be aware of these lows that we had the beginning of March, and then we really start to talk towards $45. Uh, and, and, uh, is that possible next week? Probably not, but with oil, who knows. Who knows? But yeah, this is— I kind of keep it quite simple with these, just horizontal levels. Obviously you've got your— the trend line we had on back below there, and below 37.04 towards 30, uh, 486, not out of the question. Um, let's have a look at gold. Finished last week bang on this next level, didn't it? Bang on that next level. It doesn't make it easy to decide whether to go long at the open or not. Um, interestingly, Monday we, we, we, we, we had a down day, so it acted in— let's go back to 60-minute just on Monday. I just want to see exactly how we, how we reacted. Where's Monday the 15th? Yeah, you can see here with stocks pushing, um, pushing down, gold also came off. So to predict what's going to happen at the open here on gold with that, uh, move lower in stocks, we might well see this, this area hold. However, it is of course, you know, let the market tell you what's going on. And 60-minute, you can just see how important this resistance level is 1760. So above there, obviously just be aware of these, these previous highs here, this area where before we broke down back on the 18th of May. And then you're really looking towards some of those, uh, highs of the year to come back in again. I was saying to the interns on the summer interns on, I think it was Wednesday or Thursday, it was that gold is range-bound, and, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise. It is, you know, going back here to the 14th of April, two, two tests at the bottom, two of the low. We're above that sort of mid-range point here that held well last week. We're now coming up to another resistance level, which we've just seen is very key. But decision comes really bigger term, you know, once these, these points go. So for gold, I want to see how it opens on, um, on Monday. But going back to that 60-minute and, you know, really sort of drawing up this resistance level up here, you know, along above here towards 1770 and 1778 makes sense. Back below there, then it could get, you know, choppy again like we've seen. Uh, trend line on here has held very well from the low of the 5th, low of the 15th low the 18th. So just when sometimes you feel gold is going to go and go and go, you know, get a rejection of these highs back below the trend line and see you later. Um, but yeah, we'll have to wait and see for that for sure. Let's have a quick look over at the DAX as well, how we finished, uh, on, on Friday on that 60-minute. Doesn't look, uh, too promising when you also know we're about to gap down. We're gonna fill this little gap that we had on the 15th to the 16th opening. Uh, so we'll probably get open, you know, around, well, below those lows, and suddenly you're looking at last week's lows coming in relatively quickly in what was pretty sideways moving market last week. You can see here, held up on Friday, but with the gap coming below, uh, yeah, you've got to be bearish on the open. But that said, just like equities you can get long if we come back above there. That's the way I see it, you know. But you know, when we push lower, obviously these areas where the mouse is turns to resistance. If we do get above there, that's your signal that the buyers are now back in control and you can push on for the bulls. Um, but yeah, expect the open to, to have us pushing lower, and then we'll see how Europe reacts in the morning, uh, is the way I would say it. But, uh, any questions, as usual, guys, please do let me know. And I hope you all enjoy the rest of your evenings, or if you're watching tomorrow, I hope you'll have a great week ahead as well. Thank you, guys.