Weekly Trading Set-ups 23rd November - 27th November 2020

Hi guys, happy Sunday. Hope you've all had a lovely weekend and looking forward to the week ahead. I haven't been on for a while, but it's good to be back, and we'll do the, the same routine as before, go through each of the markets one by one. Any new ones that you want for next week, just put them in the comments below, and feel free to follow me on, on, on Twitter. The handle there, you can see just below me, @snorth19, and feel free to ask me any questions via my DMs on there as well. Just having a look here then at Euro to begin with, I always think it's useful to start as a complete blank page, and I was speaking with Alex on, well, Friday actually, so it was a couple of days ago. We've got our Professional Program Traders, which start on Monday. But we were talking about just trend lines, and actually in the Dixie, but here we've got the euro going back to its inception in, uh, well, beginning of the millennium. But the, uh, the all-time high trend line, which, uh, you can see matched up to the 2014 highs, uh, we are actually above there. It's quite messy, and, and we were sort of saying with the trend lines, you want to see a decent push lower. You want price to come down sharply like we saw here, and we're hanging around there. And I, I have to be honest, I am in two minds about where I think the euro and, uh, the dollar are going to go in the short term. It wasn't too long ago that I was thinking we're going to break it and it's going to go 120 again, 125 on the futures. But then last couple of weeks I've been more leaning towards we go 116 again. Ultimately, uh, keep an eye on your dollar index because that can obviously tell you a lot. Um, but each of these pairs that we go through might just show a different picture. You can see how choppy that trend line is there. For me, I'd almost say that's now not even worth having on, but on your longer time frames it would be. Uh, going to the daily chart then, uh, well, just before that, you can see on the weekly we're really just range-bound. For me, that's, you know, not interesting. Um, I would, I would say how it looks at the moment, you, you've got quite a clear midpoint, 1.1760, and then to the upside, 1.1925. And obviously this low that we had, let's just call it 1.16 handle, which we've had good price action around. For me, it's all about those two. The way we, uh, moved off the 1.17 level, it gives me a bit of confidence that we can start to push on. But until we break above or below, uh, these two points, I'm really, I'm really in two minds. Let's go have a look at the daily chart anyway, just to bring that into picture. And you can see the reaction that we had last week on the, the— not last week, the 11th, uh, of November. So last two Wednesdays ago, it— I was actually in a short what at the time I thought was lovely on an intraday break around here. And yeah, it's, uh, it hit this, this midpoint which has been so good, and we pushed higher since. Um, how we finished Friday, for me, yeah, it's, it's just wait, wait and see. Unfortunately, I know FX at the moment has been slightly tame, uh, especially compared to, say, uh, other, other markets. But yeah, for me, it's about 3 points and really two that are close. So 119.25, can we get a weekly close above there or can we get below 117.60? Um, to the, the upside, obviously worth just having on the, the 118.99, let's call it 119 area as well. 1, 2, 3 recent tests in 4 days of that point and it's held well. And then to the downside, you can see 118.21 1. So that's like a little mini range, uh, that I'll be keeping a watch on. If we break the lows, then, you know, I think another test of 1.1760 comes in. And while you do obviously have a couple of smaller levels below, that's when you could start looking at the 1.1600 handle coming back in again. Ultimately, uh, I would let the market in this case tell me what, what's going to happen and weekly closes, I think, will be, will be the, the main thing to keep an eye on. Bias for the week for the euro, um, I, I don't have one. I don't have one in terms of direction. However, a close on the day or some decent breaks above that 1.19 handle, I'd be looking for longs. And if that is the case, and I think a short squeeze up to 1.20 could happen, just be aware of ECB comments. Uh, if we do break the low that we had from, uh, well, the 16th was a Monday, wasn't it? The Monday and Thursday, then we could be in, in, uh, in action towards that 117, uh, handle again. But yeah, I don't have a view right now. For the pound, slightly different. I'm actually— let me just mark this up— I'm actually a bit more bullish on— well, I am more bullish on, on the pound. Reason being, nice, nice break above here. But first, let's just have a look at the the weekly chart for, for cable here. Just remove all of those lines and sort of draw out. You can see there's, there is an awful lot of resistance, uh, on this whole point for, for the pound, 1.34. I mean, you can go back here and look towards, you know, years gone by. Obviously this is Brexit, um, but yeah, just, just a little bit above where we're trading, massive, massive level of resistance. Uh, the dollar is obviously the most important thing currency-wise to keep an eye on at the moment. It's on that multi-month, uh, multi-month trend line. If that gives way and we have the idea that a deal is going to happen, we start pricing that in, I think we can really push on 137s and 140s. So I think the risk-reward of that trade is interesting. It's certainly something I would be thinking about. And this week, the way we finished last week— let's just go to the, the daily chart. Um, let me just remove that. I, I am actually pretty comfortable in, in, in, you know, going out and saying, at least in the early stages, from a technical point of view, I think the pound could push on. Reason being, the first close we got above this level, um, uh, since we broke above it on the 28th of August— you can see it then acted as good resistance on the way down. Okay, another test, another test on the 18th, but we finally closed on. Now you would also have to say this can't really take place until we break maybe above this, this trend line. So, and the way I would look at it is if we break above Friday's high, there could be that whole short squeeze. You're targeting 132, uh, 133.28, which this lovely double top, and then it can push on 134s, and that's when people don't want to be short this market anymore. So I, I would still just be waiting, just be waiting, but a break above there and I think it gets interesting. To the downside, um, I wouldn't be looking to get short until we close below 131.84. We have done there on the 12th, but you see we come into the next level of support. So with FX at the moment, these big moves while the dollar index is coiling up and there could of course be big moves to happen. I would still have realistic targets. The euro on the break lower, you can see it hits that point. There's no real momentum yet. If you're long from the 11th, or you got in after it failed to break lower and you got in on the 12th, you probably would be taking profit. Uh, you know, it's not a massive trade. For the pound, I think the massive trade comes if we can get those closes above 133, basically. To the downside, 131.84 goes yeah, just be aware though, at 131 handle, good support. Has to be a zone though with the high that we got from the 3rd of November. Um, just, uh, yeah, 3rd of November, yes, uh, what an interesting day that was. Um, but yeah, break of that, then I think you can get a bigger move to the downside, be targeting all of these points here, 2nd of October to the 2nd of November. I mean, what a long You could say that was on the sort of day before the election for a number of these dollar pairs. You don't have to be a bit of a gambler to take that on though. But yeah, looking at this, pound bullish above 133. I am bullish for the beginning of the week. Now that doesn't mean at the open I'm buying, but I would be interested if we can start to push above this trend line at 133. To the downside, I think it's got to break Friday's low, it's got to break the 21st of October high, which is also the low that we had on the 4th of September, before I could really start getting interested in, in some shorts. Um, nice little trend line I think worth having on if we do get any momentum to the downside. You can see here it actually probably goes down to the 18th of May low, but nice trend line here. It's really for me, this starts the 30th of June and Um, yeah, I think at the moment the bulls are in control. I'd rather be long right now than short. One market that I am short, uh, is, is the Aussie dollar. Stop above these highs. Um, tiny bit offside on this position. I, I got in on Thursday. Um, I, I don't know, it's, it's my personal way of trading and having a look at the stats and doing all these kind of things. I, I very rarely with, uh, a trade once I'm in, yeah, unless there is, you know, massive data coming out or comments that change the fundamental picture or correlated moves. So for the Aussie, I'm sticking with it. Um, I think like me, anyone short has got their stops above here, um, just to give that information out there to everyone. But, uh, yeah, I think, you know, a close of the day above 73 27, that's when you can get that, that push, that continued push to the upside, and you start looking at the, the high of the year again. Um, what happens if that high of the year goes? Well, let's put it onto the weekly chart. You can see the significance of this whole region going back to August 18th. So quite a lot of resistance just a bit above there, and there could still be another opportunity to get in for a short if it was to squeeze up. So just be careful of that To the downside, any Aussie dollar shorters, you want this zone to break the lows that we had, double bottom 13th, 12th of November, and also the high of the election, the 4th of November. It is in a bit of a range here. We did reject the, the lower part of this on Friday. We're contained. We didn't necessarily finish up at the high. Yeah, if not in a trade, you're waiting, you're waiting. And I think the trigger is, is a nice daily close above here, and then you're looking for the longs, uh, or it's below and you're looking for those shorts. Targets to the downside— so the way I'm looking at managing this trade in an ideal way is midpoint for the, the long and the bottom of the range, uh, mid-range yeah, this mid-range part point for target 1, uh, and this, this for the low here, which is, you know, this is called the low of 2nd November, but more the bottom of the range. So that's how I look at it. I mean, if it doesn't— the trade doesn't work, it doesn't matter, it's still a good risk-reward on it and it makes sense for me. But yeah, dollar index at the moment is, is bang on some very important support right now. I say the bulls are relatively happy if they're getting in from the retest of the 9th of October low. You see there, okay, one, one hairy day and then you push up. You would have de-risked, you'd imagine, here. I'd say no one's in control, to be honest. If anyone, the bulls were. I'd say the pound bulls are in control, but key resistance coming up. Euro, uh, I don't— like I said, I'm not really sure, to be completely honest. I'm gonna look at the yen, which, um, you can see it has been drifting down and You know, what about your— you know, like, these things are always easier in hindsight, aren't they? But, you know, look at this, is beautiful double top failed, uh, move lower. You can obviously have getting in that stuff above, or, you know, you wait for, you know, a key break of, say, a technical area support. You get in on the retest on last Monday, you ride it down, and, you know, you come out on, on this point here where you have good solid, solid support. What a, uh, a trade that would be, and completely completely would fit in with the, the way that I trade. Trendline here as well, no break, no break. So I'd still have that on, I would. Um, to the downside, obviously just be aware of yesterday, last week's low before you've got the sort of— let's call it, uh, an almost a double bottom on the 6th and the, the 9th. So that Friday, Monday as well. If we do get a continued push, just be aware of those lows of the year which, uh, would be, you know, a long stretch to get the, the low of the year. But a break below the November low, that has to be starting to, to talk about. Uh, and then to the upside is looking at any of these previous lows or highs to offer a bit of resistance. I, you know what, to be honest, if you like the dollar strength, if you like there to be risk on with the, the vaccine news potentially you know, leading the way of people's opinions about the market. I think this is a good opportunity to get long, you know, based on that. I wouldn't have wanted to get long Friday, to be honest. So I'll be interested to see what happens on, on Monday or Sunday evening in 2-3 hours or so. But yeah, it's quite interesting. It is quite an interesting area. It is— I mean, the safer play here is for the long is to wait above, you know, this, this low that we had on the 16th of November. A lot of support around here. So if we can get a push on and above, then I like it. I do like it a bit more. I'm just going to speed up. I don't want to take too much of your, your time. Um, quick look over at gold. For me, gold, uh, that $1,850, it looks fantastic yet again. Um, Look at that, look at the low. What's the low of Thursday? You bet to 1850 on the nose. You'd have probably wanted a bit of a bigger push. That doesn't come, uh, in, into play for, for the longs. You know, I'm so— I've been always saying 1888, uh, you know, if we can get close above there, then, then I like it. So for me, it's, it's, it's a little range here. I'm happy to be late to the party and get long you know, once it closes above 1892, let's just call it, and then looking for this little figure here, this low of the 6th of November. I like that. And then medium term-wise, you, you're looking for gold to push on, and I think that's not a bad little play here. For me, that, that keeps the confirmation above 1892. Stop back in, uh, in here. You wouldn't want to be long there. To the downside, 1850 goes. Just be aware that it could move pretty quick. I'm not a massive, massive moving average fan, um, in terms of my sole decision. I don't, you know, would obviously only get in with them in an area there's moving average where there's also another area of support resistance. But the 200-day moving average comes in and around that point, and the 1800 handle, and some support from the 14th of July. I think that's not a bad little trade. And, uh, as well, I think that's, you know, would obviously get a lot of these stops out, uh, and offer another opportunity to potentially get in. Um, so yeah, worth, worth having that on in my opinion. If you think obviously gold is, is gonna, uh, is gonna get that breakdown, then, uh, obviously that could be a point to take profit before you look down to some of the lows from early summer. But yeah, that's how I see gold. Uh, the S&P at the moment, I did not like the lows that we had on the 18th. Two rejections of that high. Uh, you know, I, I, with the, the guys in the advanced program that have, uh, just finished and then continuing on, I've been saying for the, the week that I wouldn't really be ultimately bearish equities unless we get below 3522 on the day. So that's the area I'm keeping a watch on. To the upside, the long happens for me above 3576. Or basically Thursday and Friday's high. That happens, I'm all for, all for the longs. To the downside then, where would the sort of target area be? 3547 on the futures. I actually really like a long in this whole region here, 3400 handle, 3405, um, but be comfortable to, to stay in it as long as it stays above 3382 as well. So for me, that's, that's the nice area to to get involved at. Um, but if you're riding the short, these would all be profit targets that I'd be, be looking at. Um, to the upside, obviously it breaks 3576. The— your immediate view has to be towards that all-time high and some of those recent highs that we've had. I actually think the S&P is setting up nicely for a bigger move. Have we seen the high of the year at the moment? I'd say No, at the moment I would say no, but below 3522, I would not want to be long, uh, until 3400. NASDAQ, I'm kicking myself with the NASDAQ for missing out on this long. Look at that resistance, resistance, support, support, resistance, comes back, support. Probably the most obvious level in the world, 11,500. Uh, what a long, beautiful— you probably get your target straight away as well. I up towards here. Um, probably, you know, if you are holding any of this position, it's risk-free by now. Hindsight is always 20/20 vision though, of course. Um, but yeah, the, the way I see the NASDAQ now is if not long here, um, you've obviously got a bit of support here, 11, uh, 700s. Let's just call it that sort of support from, from last week. Uh, but I'm not too interested, but I'd say in getting involved, we're sort of getting squeezed both ways, you could say, as well. I don't know, bigger moves to, to come. I'll keep an eye on 11,777 as a key level of support. I wouldn't want to be long if it does get below there, and then I think you come back to this key mid-range point. You have a lot of support below there, but for now, I, I wouldn't be surprised to, to see us contained within this range for, for a bit. Just be aware of the top and the bottom. I would go with for, for the Dow. So Dow Jones, uh, did not like the close that we had on Thursday, similar to the S&P, back below the high that we had on the 11th. Came back as well to test some resist, uh, you know, the double top Thursday, Friday, like the S&P. From a technical point of view, it doesn't look too good to me. Um, however, if not in a trade, I would only be pulling the trigger on a short I mean, really, if these lows went as well— so similar to the S&P, you've got those lows, the Dow, these lows here. What days are they? They're going to be the same, 10th of November, uh, that sort of start date here. So, uh, so similar. Are we getting vaccine fatigue as well? Something to ask yourself. The, the moves off those headlines have been limited. Uh, gotta, uh, be, I think, thinking about the rotation move as well. If we do have some ultra-positive vaccine news, NASDAQ's going to be more susceptible. If tech come under pressure, the S&P could as well. It's more the Russell and the Dow that seem to be performing better. Double top, 30,000. Who would have thought it? I would have thought we got 30,000 back in January and we didn't. But, uh, yeah, you know, one to, one to have on there. We'll wrap it there, guys. I don't want to take too much of your time, but Any questions, feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the comment section. I hope you have a great rest of your evening if you're watching today. If you're watching tomorrow, I hope you all have a super week.