Weekly Trading Set-ups 24th - 28th August 2020

Hi guys, happy Sunday. Hope you're well. Welcome to the weekly trade setups video. We'll go through the markets one by one, starting off with the euro before we get through to the equities and some of the commodities as well. I think worth starting on the weekly chart, however, for a couple of these dollar pairs. You can see the euro rejecting this long trend line from 2008 where it started. The pound projecting for the fourth week in a row The trend line from 2018 highs also hitting really the 9th of March, uh, sort of 21st of Jan area of resistance and coming back below. And the Aussie, very similar trend line on, but we closed below after looking for all money for the whole part of the week that we're going to finish above. Not the case. Uh, the euro on the daily, how to look at this now? I mean, we finished pretty much bang in the middle of the recent range that we've had. So in terms of straightaway price action on the, on the Monday, I'd be cautious. I'd be holding off. I'd expect, certainly having a look at these finishes for the euro, the pound, and the Aussie, that we do see some dollar strength into next week. But worth— and reason for that is obviously that the fallout from the Fed, no new dovish information, but also the end of month. You you know, there's been a couple rumors that I've read of some dollar buying, so maybe that can materialize and we start to see a bit of a drift down. That said, uh, you can see really the bang in the middle of the range, that has to go, that has to break, uh, and then we can start to see a cleaner move. On the 60— well, I'll put on a 240-minute. You can see this is where that, uh, sort of fallout from the Fed started. We pushed down in early trade, continued after the minutes We did recover a bit the next day, only to then strengthen on the dollar side of things into the Friday close. Now I would probably— now this is that sort of line in the sand that I would have now for the, the euro dollar. Good bit of price action around here. It's almost like my guide. Above there, then the dollar maybe isn't ready to strengthen just yet, and we can drift back to the top of the range. If we come in here and it holds, then I wouldn't be too surprised to see the low of the range come in as well. So that's kind of how I would have that on the daily. Really, it hasn't done too much because it can't get out of this range that it's in. So the lines below and above, I'm not really interested in changing, but that sort of 118.31 area— let's call it a zone— uh, is probably where I'd be focusing most on given the, uh, the importance of that area just on the lower time frame as well. But yeah, 1.17, bottom of the range. Be interesting to see what happens there. Break below, just be aware of these previous highs. I think a healthy little correction lower or move lower would be quite nice towards that 1.15 for some longs ahead of, uh, the, the Fed, uh, meeting in September. The pound's moving on Just wait for that to load up. Of course, these charts again not, not tested since— not tested, not edited since last Sunday. You can see just how messy it was around here. Couldn't get above. Obviously got that trend line that we know on the, the weekly rejecting this whole area. We're now back below. Keep a watch on the 130 handle, 129, uh, 82. That's going to be real important because below there I imagine you get a quicker move and then you start talking about this trend line from the lows, you start talking about the 200-day moving average, and you can get a quicker unwind. That's going to be an important level, 129.82. I go as far as saying that's going to be the most important level and area to keep a watch on. I think the, the move from, say, the 130 to 128 would be a pretty quick one. Um, however, if that holds and we start drifting higher— I'm going to put this on the 240— You can see, you are, you are, we are getting quite a key area of support forming, uh, on these lows around 130.76. We finished above, you know, the, the bulls will be happy with that. However, just how we finish on the, the weekly charts, it wouldn't be all surprising to see a drift lower below there in early trade. Then we can get to the 129.82, and that's when you can get that unwind. These levels don't break and then next thing you know, we're up at the 132 handle again. We're above that weekly trend line, and maybe we start talking about this is the week we finally break it to the upside and we push higher. So things are set very nicely. Um, I will— based on how we finish the week, like I said, I think we're gonna get some dollar strength. Those are the levels that need to go, uh, and if we are to break these, say, early on the Monday or the Tuesday and we do get some month-end dollar buy-in, that's when you can start to see 1.2851 in the pound. That's when you can start to see 1.16— 1.15 would be a too big a move, but the journey begins towards there. Uh, however, those levels reject and we finish back on those highs, that will be equally as important because we then cleared this whole area and then people start looking at 1.22s, 1.25 in the euro. For the pound back to the election high at 1.35, and for the Aussie dollar, it can maybe look to hit that high that we had in December 2018 around 73.87. Moving on to the Aussie, uh, much like the other dollar pairs, it's choppy on those, uh, well, last few days of the week, but really for a couple of weeks. It can't quite get above, uh, that 72.50. And the Fed minutes Uh, it almost feels like if they weren't there, or if there was even a hint of dovishness, uh, we would have continued higher. Sort of put things in check a bit. Looking at this now, let's have a look and see if we can get some sort of trend line on here. That's nice, gotta have that on here. This is starting on the 3rd of August, nice little push to the 12th, and then the double bottom area from Thursday and Friday. Keep a watch on that because the market is as well. So a break of that and that's where 7066 could come in. Of course, using some of these levels around the 71 handle and the low of the 3rd of August as well as points to de-risk in that trade. Moving this over just to encapsulate some of this price action from 2019 and '18, you can see there was a lot of resistance around to that high that we had last week. Didn't quite get to the 73 handle and the higher the 50, uh, February 2019, but it's going to be one to keep a watch on, uh, you would say. Just remove that text. But the story of last week was it started relatively well for the, the currency. We pushed higher really from a nice finish last week, uh, or a nice week last week. We just couldn't, when it came to Wednesday, materialize a push above these, uh, these big trend lines. And the dollars have strengthened. However, you can certainly see the, the Aussie has big support on that trend line. The pound, as we know, has got a lot of support around that area that we had on the 60-minute, which of course would be 240 around 130.76. And the euro, as we can push this in, has got a very big support level around 117. However, that looks like it is, is the one that's perhaps going to start more on the stronger foot for the dollar. I consider it's broken a key level and finished below there on Friday. False breaks are obviously very key for these markets, and it hasn't been a seller's market as of late. Are we going to see this materialize into the end of the month? I would say so. I would say so. That said, can then the S&P push on with this dollar strength? It would certainly hinder it. It would certainly hinder it. Wednesday we saw the dollar strength scenario where gold-dollar pairs came lower and the S&P did. However, the Thursday and Friday reversed that whole move, and we're very, very close to the all-time high, uh, that we had back in the end of Feb. Um, I think it almost reached there on the Wednesday and the Friday. Looking at this on the daily, let's just remove a couple of these arrows just to go over the, the points because there's no need to draw on new lines really below. It hasn't come into an area, uh, of, of very key support. I mean, obviously you can mark up this low that we had on Thursday, 3348. That's now obviously worth having on the 200-day moving average. 3321 looks key. I quite like the 3300 handle, uh, just getting in some of this sort of gap fill. This whole area, uh, between 2184, I think would be a nice place. You've also got the 200-day moving average in there. As well for the S&P. So any pullback towards here I think would be nice. The FOMO rally higher above the all-time highs, it could, it could well happen. I wouldn't be chasing it personally as, as, as such. I'd be more waiting for this to come through. Uh, ideally we do find a double top here and push lower to get in, uh, a bit— well, get opportunity to buy lower down. I think that would be the way people potentially would be looking at this. But trade what you see. And if we do break that high, and you know, the stop really does have to be just below the previous all-time high, you can see if that runs. But with this dollar strength, just bear that in mind, how much further can it go. One market that doesn't really care about any dollar strength is of course the NASDAQ. You know, even if the dollar strengthens, this market seems to be more of a safe haven now than, than than anything else, and that's finishing on the highest it's ever been. Trend line, keep an eye obviously on the 21-day moving average. If we come back down to 11,000 handle, that looks a fantastic area to get in long. That would really look like it has to happen before Wednesday, uh, but keep a watch on your trend channel. Keep an eye on the, the previous high at 11,272. But this is what you would potentially see in the S&P, that previous all-time high, break through, come back to find support, and push on. 3399, 3/4, same reaction, higher, retest, and go. That's how I would be looking at that. The NASDAQ is in a league of its own, and I was, you know, obviously having a little joke about it being a safe haven, but it's kind of what it is, uh, at the moment, especially with those big FAANG names, uh, doing all so well. The Dow, it's a shame it didn't really come down to this area last week. I would have absolutely had a bit of that with the trend line, with this previous area support. Now if that comes in, it's— it'd be a break of the trend line, and that would make me just a bit wary about it. But still a good level, uh, we held above. Importantly, we held above the 9th of June high, little false break, as we know they are quite key. I mean, looking at the chart, I mean, you could, you could have a little basis that we failed to get a new high in the S&P, so that's not ideal. But the fact that the Dow finished back above this level and the S&P finished higher after Wednesday's move lower, and then the NASDAQ is on an all-time high, I'm still confident these markets can push higher. It's just whether that dollar strength starts to weigh on things at all. And on the flip side, if say the Dow gets back above 28,000, if the NASDAQ, you know, I mean, that trend line is going to be some nice resistance, to be fair. But if that continues to push higher, the S&P makes a new all-time high, and we have risk on, those dollar pairs might want to push higher as well. So just, uh, just something to think about. I mean, from a dollar strength perspective, you'd like to see the open on Sunday— well, tonight move us lower in equities. The, the NASDAQ finished Monday below its previous high that we had on, on Thursday, and that could lead to the dollar strength. Um, the correlations are there. It's a tricky one to want to be short these dollar pairs and long equities at the moment, because if you've wanted that, you've kind of been burnt, really. I mean, let's be honest, the, the Wednesday was celebrated like it's a return of the dollar, but look where it's come from. Um, really from, from those March lows. So let's not get too ahead of ourselves. I expect a bit of dollar strength, and, and that makes me confused a touch on whether equities can go higher. I, you know, I do think they do, um, maybe just not right away. I, I'd like pullbacks in all markets, like 3284 in the S&P. I'd like the trend line here in the NASDAQ. I'd like the Dow back towards 27,000. The euro is mentioned to 115, 116, the pound back down to 128.50, and the Aussie dollar down to the 70 handle. That would be healthy, and it wouldn't really be for me either the start of a big move lower. Of course, if those levels break through, then it is, but you know, that's how I see things. Uh, it's going back to that Dow levels, obviously to the upside. Just be aware of the that sort of double bottom we had, 8th of Jan, 31st of Jan. Above there is a cleaner push, and we'd start talking about that gap fill. Gold, uh, let's remove some of these arrows just to clear things up. Uh, tricky one for, for gold. I mean, it's, uh, it, it obviously— that's that Tuesday move lower. Let's put this on a cleaner chart. Here's a better one. Let's just remove it. Yeah, we had that Tuesday move lower, if you remember. That then turned to a solid resistance level. We then came down— this is the Wednesday, uh, with that dollar strength— turned out to be the low, uh, or the closing low of the week there. So mark up that for sure, that Wednesday low. Below there, and people will start, you know, thinking about this market coming lower again. Intraday, uh, sort of line in the sand for the week. It's a bit of a zone, I would say, for me now. Let me just bring in this rectangular area. You see here we've got these nice lows from the 5th, the 3rd, and the 4th, the high from the 13th, the low that we had on Tuesday. That's an area where the buyers want us above, the sellers will want that below. I think we do get a test of that, uh, and then it's decision time. It's decision time. Good little finish for the, for those that are more bullish gold, uh, in short term, to close back above the, the Wednesday, Thursday double bottom. That's a nice little reaction there. You would want to see price push towards here. And then it is decision time. Let's put it on a 60-minute here. Let's put those pivots on as well. And you can see there, that is that reaction from the Tuesday area support comes in, finds— uh, no, sorry, this is the Tuesday area support finds strong resistance on last Tuesday, uh, and then the Wednesday dollar strength that we saw. But yeah, if we can get back above sort of 1985 then, uh, gold— gold bulls will be pretty happy. Um, that said, you know, you can start to see maybe a bit of a head and shoulders, uh, forming on the 60-minute here for gold. So if we are to then get back below last week's low, that's when you're going to start to see some more dollar strength. And I think if that happens again, if, for example, if we close below Friday's low, then I think, uh, sort of the 1850 comes in relatively quickly. That would help the dollar side of things. So the euro, the pound, and the Aussie to push lower. We'll have to wait and see. Uh, oil here, let me just make sure that is the 21st. It is. I mean, I say this every week now, it's, uh, such a boring market, isn't it? It's, uh, it's not doing anything. It's not doing anything. It's, it's waiting for a bigger move. Uh, we said last week those who got short 4343, which is the low the 2nd of March, you'd be, you'd be happy with that still as long as price, uh, you know, doesn't go above. It hasn't. It's, uh, let's just put this on the weekly here. I mean, look at those weekly finishes. It's, um, it's boring out there. Nothing really happening. But you can see why, and this is exactly what we said last week, wasn't it? You got the sort of the weekly close of the 24th of Feb there. You've got this weekly low that we had, uh, in December 2018, which is also making this an even bigger level. Look at this going back to 2017, 2016, and even before that in 2015. Let's drag it all the way across, see if there's anything else in there. Not quite, but you can see the importance. And that's why, you know, so for the, for the move to happen towards $50 uh, which I've said many times I think happens above 43.90, that's a lot easier. Um, so just keep a watch on that. A lot of areas support below. I still think it's a buy the dip market, uh, in this. It just might be— so look at the— oh yeah, nice, nice new trend line on here, confirmed on Friday. So keep a watch on that. Below the trend line doesn't look too good. And you're back towards $38. But I think that could be the opportunity to load up again for, for the oil longs. That said, good reaction push above $43, and then we start looking at $45, then we start looking at $48 and $50 handle as well. So it's set up nicely, but I can't promise you fireworks at the moment for oil. Silver, uh, just like gold, isn't it? You know, it's got that uh, sort of Tuesday to Tuesday retest, finished below but then rejected this area of support here solidly to the tick. Uh, so leave that on. Above 28 on the daily close back, and then we look back towards 29, uh, and 30 handle. Below this sort of finish that we had last week at 26s, I'll just be careful because, you know, I'd be saying 24 and 23 could come in again that we saw in the 12th or of August. So yeah, just keep, uh, keep a watch. $26 to be the line in the sand below where we're trading and above. Uh, let's just put this again on the 60. You can see the importance of the sort of area support here. I'd probably have it around $27.60, $27.80, maybe just, um, as key as a zone to keep a watch on there. The DEX I mean, we said when the trend line broke, it was, it was a bit unfortunate, but this is, this is good to see in that we have the break, fine, then you get the faster moves. But like, if we are to see a trend line break in oil, the dip is bought. If we are to see, uh, the dip has been bought in the Dow. If we'd see one in, in the, in the Dow and the DAX, if we see one in the NASDAQ, we're still getting buyers come in. If we see one in the Dow, we're still going to get buyers come in based on you know, this appetite that these markets can still push higher. The FTSE's recovered a touch, and, and there was a question last week, can I look at the FTSE? Um, and you know, next week I can. I'll start bringing in on another platform. It's just that on this particular one that I don't have the data for, for the FTSE. But yeah, the, the, the DAX, now it's back above 12, 4— 12,500 is key. And I've said drag the, uh, this area support over, still have it on. We finished pretty much bang on my, my sort of line in the sand, but we rejected it. False break. Um, equities for me look bullish, um, going into next week. It's just whether the dollar strength hinders that, or the flip side, equities get some risk on and these currencies go higher. It's set up nicely, I have to say. Uh, in terms of, you know, it's not— although equities look good, but it's not a buy at market on the open, I think it could still be relatively choppy. And of course, that's the point, it's the August, it's that summer season, so volume is lower. But, um, yeah, back above 13,000 and really the high that we had on the 12th, that's how I would look to play this, targeting then the high that we had on the 21st of July and the gap fill. But that said, to the flip side, below this, uh, this close that we had on Friday And you can see just how, uh, clean this area of support was and the false break. That's why I'm more bullish for the week. If we do get, say, below there, then, uh, yeah, a run down towards that 12,500 handle again could be worth looking out for. Anyway guys, hope all is well. Hope you all have a great week. As usual, any questions, get them below. Uh, myself and Anthony Cheung can answer answer these as and when. But yeah, I think to wrap it, you've got some, some key rejections that we had from Friday for those dollar pairs. Doesn't look too good. Equities recovered very well from that Wednesday sell-off, if you want to call it that, that we had. They look more bullish. Something's got to give. Summer season, silly season, we'll have to wait and see.