Weekly Trading Set-ups 25th-29th May 2020

Hello everyone, hope you're enjoying the bank holiday weekend as much as possible. Eid Mubarak to all our Muslim followers as well. Thank you very much for the kind comments on last Sunday's video. I'm loving the interaction as well in the comment section, so please keep that coming. I've got a list of a couple of the questions in there that we'll go through in this video as well, so if you have any, uh, points or questions that you want to have addressed in next Sunday's video, get them in the comment section, uh, and I will address those in 7 days' time. Uh, also one thing I want to do in this video is talk about the, the Amplify Trading process. Uh, so I'm sure many of you are aware now we have our Amplify Now online course, uh, where you can learn about, uh, you know, the fundamentals of the way we look at the market the technical side of things, the psychology. But what I'm gonna focus here, and it's part of the skill set that you'll learn on Amplify Now, is the trading process. So obviously you can click Start Now and there's a free week trial for you to get stuck in. But one of the main things that we do in the week-long intensive course and the 5-week professional trading program course is following this process. So, uh, we start with that fundamental analysis. So like I said last week, I'm looking out for Ant's Macro Menu, building that picture, and then doing the technical stuff, which is what we'll go through here. Building a strategy, executing that strategy, obviously exiting the trade, reviewing and going, uh, again. So I actually haven't looked at the market since Friday's close. I haven't done any preparation for, for the charts whatsoever. And the reason I wanted to do that was to go through it live as if, well, it is the first time that I've seen the market. So you can really see the process that I go through and our traders here at Amplify go through as well. So I've got rid of all the tabs that were here from, from last Sunday and obviously removed some of the analysis— well, all the analysis that was on the euro here But, you know, let's have a, let's have a little look through the way I'd be looking, uh, at this. And obviously I'm involved in the markets all the time, so I can remember where trend lines were or when levels broke. But it's, you know, no harm whatsoever in just refreshing the charts, taking everything off, going back to those longer time frames. Also worth noting, you know, what is it this week? Well, you know, the, the last trading day of the month is next Friday. So have we got a bit of end-of-month fighters in the FX space or in the equity markets to consider. Uh, but yeah, let's move back on to, yeah, the euro. You know, we were saying this time last week, weren't we, about the, uh, the trend line, how, you know, if that goes, really opens the floor. And I agree absolutely, but we couldn't go lower unless that trend line broke. And you can still— you can see how well that held and You know, I was also saying it's a long if we can get above here. We did, came back, test it, and then to the top of that range. A lot of FX pairs did the— did that sort of pattern where it pushed higher into the back end of the week and then had a couple of days just drifting off those lows. So for, for Euro here, interestingly, you know, where it finished is bang on the level we broke through on, uh, what was 18th, on Monday. We came back to test it. Importantly, on the futures, we finished above. So the way I'd be, you know, looking at this— and obviously bear in mind tomorrow is, you know, a bank holiday, uh, in, well, in the UK, some parts of Europe and America as well. So volume is going to be low. Would I hold off trading tomorrow? Potentially. But having a look at the euro here, you can see, you know, the way I'm looking at this is, uh, And I'll probably— because I'm probably not— I'm not going to trade tomorrow. I will look at the markets, but I'll, you know, be looking, you know, Monday night to see. And, you know, if we hold here, then, you know, I'd be bullish this market that we can have another go at potentially pushing back up to this top of the range here. If we come back below, then we can get excited again about that trend line. I mean, there's obviously a quite important level here, which was the two Fridays ago high what's that, 108.55 on the futures that I would consider, uh, as a bit of support. But below the 109 handle, I'd say we are likely to drift down to the trend line, and then we've got to be aware of those levels below. Yes, you're marking up this low, which is also a previous area of support as well. They're your targets. If we hold and we go above the range, where could we go to? Well, how about the top end of you know, the 1st of April, above that, looking at the, the handle, and then suddenly you're up towards here. So it's a really interesting market for euro. Good opportunities last week on the break of, you know, this resistance, then this, and the, the retest, or the short from up there. For me, euro last week was a beautiful market to trade. Now going back to that, that process we're looking at here, the fundamentals. So I'm really looking forward to seeing what Anthony says in that macro menu. I'll post the link in the chat section once that is updated. But I wanna see, is there any developments? What data do we have out? And then I can build that in with the technical side. You know, if I feel the fundamentals are leading, you know, to a more bearish outlook, okay, well let's get a confirmation of the break below 109, and then I can target down to here, the risk reward, stop just above, you know, when's the right time of the day to take that on as well. One of the questions, uh, last week was talking about correlations. So what would I want to see for this market to move lower? Dollar strength across the board. I'll be looking at the dollar index. Is it breaking new highs? Is the pound also under pressure? What's Aussie dollar doing? What is gold doing? Uh, if it's a dollar-related move, I'd expect all these markets to be pushing towards their lows when I'm looking for euro to also do the same. Perhaps as well. So that's just something to bear in mind. What are those correlated markets? Are there any key levels in— I mean, a great correlation has been the NASDAQ and its drag on other equity markets. So we'll come on to that a bit later as well. Another question was just about some extra analysis on the markets. Is, you know, is this how you leave it? And To be honest, a lot of the time it is. You know, here I've now got all my levels marked up. If we go above the range, I now know where I'll be looking to target. If we, uh, don't hold here, looking at trend line, I've got those targets in play. And you know, obviously I can flicker the wrist, go back to, you know, 2017 and start thinking about, okay, well, that would be the next level. Do I add anything else? Well, for example, I'm just going to bang on the, the S&P here. You know, what, what's probably the most common, you know, daily moving average, certainly in the equity space, is the 200 days. So this is, you know, where I'd have that on because we're near. So if we go back to the euro, I want to see, well, are there any fibs in play? Are we, you know, holding on any key moving averages? You know, one that a lot of people will look at on the daily as well as the 100-day moving average. So this is have a quick look. Like I said, this is the first time I've looked at the markets since Friday evening. 100-day moving average, you know, look at that, couldn't get above it. Resistance, important. So then therefore I'm going to have it on if we were to push up again, just so I can be aware, um, as well. Let's have a quick look over at the, the pound. Um, we were talking last Sunday When was— so let's get Sunday. It was looking, looking like this, um, and we were saying, look, we've got to be bearish, uh, and that the sellers will be in control as long as our zone here holds. So let's just get that zone on. You know, people will be looking for that retest. We came back into it, couldn't close above it a couple of times. I know personally quite a few people that took that short on, on the 19th, on the Tuesday. Yeah, a bit hairy on the, on the Wednesday, but good, good level really, isn't it? You know, it's, uh, you know, pushed higher on the Monday because there was a risk on across the market, and, and the pound has been very sensitive to that. We also had some data out on, uh, would have been the Wednesday morning. So the Tuesday we pushed above, and I was happy to almost get long, and then we had that the end of day trade conversation with our traders and analysts saying how the data was out 7 AM, and obviously had to backtrack off that. I can't take that trade on. If the data comes out a lot better, then fine, let's look for the longs if we close above. We didn't, and we've come back lower. So for the pound this week, I think you still got to be bearish. However, you've got the, the Cummings situation going on at the moment, and I've seen a bit of chatter about if he is to, to go, uh, it actually could be a bit of a pound positive due to his stance on Brexit. Let's see how that unfolds over the course of the of the day, really. But yeah, at the moment, technically, I'm happy to be short the pound. Uh, if I wasn't— you know, I'm not in a trade, so if I was short, I'd be happy to still be short. Bit of support here. Yes, it's been choppy, but it's worth keeping an eye on. We also closed below the low from the last week. Uh, be looking for, for that to come in. And then you've got some key support just below there, and also the 120 handle as well. And then be looking down towards these lows. I do like the idea of a pound long. Um, I'm only going to get in technically when that, uh, does arise. And it's, uh, it's about for me getting the, getting the, the confirmation from the chart. So a close above here, nice retest, and looking for us to push on towards the, the double top that we can see here, similar to maybe the move that we got in the euro However, at the moment, chart's telling me it's a short. Um, if there is a change in that, for me that comes in above 122.65 on the futures. So that's how I would be, be keeping an eye on that. Obviously a few places to de-risk as we go above 100-day moving average on the euro. Good. 100-day moving average on, uh, the pound, not worth having on for me. Right-click, remove that and we move on. Correlations here, obviously you've got the dollar side of things. We'll be looking at the pound on other pairs, Euro Pound for example. Be looking at the FTSE as well. If we start seeing some pound weakness, is that going to help push FTSE higher, or is it due to a risk-off move, and both of those can move down together? So understanding the correlations is obviously key, um, and one thing we do focus a lot here uh, at Amplify. Moving on, cautious that we're over 10 minutes, so I will, like last week's video, I'm going to put the timestamps in the comment section for you so you can go to the market of choice if you don't want to listen to me rambling on for, for the whole thing. Uh, but yeah, let's, let's go Aussie dollar. I quite like the Aussie, to be honest, and I remember this time last week we were putting on the, the trend line from the lows saying, look, a lot of people bearish Uh, the Aussie can't understand why it's this high. Fine, sell it under the trend line. Doesn't come up to it, hit the top of the range. Bit choppy on that range, but you could argue we actually just hit the high of the 10th of March instead of those previous highs. So I'm now marking that up. I'd still have this trend line on. I'd also have this resistance from what was first Friday. We broke through that obviously on the Monday, key level support. So this whole area here circled up Bulls are in control of that for me, which means what an opportunity if that goes, if that breaks through. Okay, let's de-risk off some on these lows here, uh, and then really down to where this whole trend line sort of begins. So good opportunity there on the break, uh, if equities decide to have another, another positive week. I think we finished up 3 and a bit percent, uh, certainly in the S&P anyway, uh, then this market could push on and then you start to really think about, you know, the next level here from the flash crash on the 9th. That would be a point to consider as well. And then obviously those previous highs here, which you could— you can mark up as well. So, you know, let's have a quick look over those currencies here. Euro pushed higher, failure to, to break the trend line, bit of a short squeeze. The pound still weighed on by some Brexit talks, bit of risk in the market. Came back lower but had to spend 2-3 days, uh, pushing to the upside before we did actually come down. If I just quickly put this on to a week, it was an up week last week for the pound against the dollar. Aussie very correlated to the S&P, so just bear that in mind at the moment. Um, however, we have just hit a high, people take profit, comes back lower. Trendline's something I want to, want to have on here focusing on obviously a daily close below there for the— for it to be bearish. I don't mind right now considering a long from there because my view is that, uh, stocks are going to continue to, to go higher. So I think the Aussie could, could follow suit. I'm going to leave it there for the currencies. Obviously, um, another question was, you know, do I look at other currency pairs? Absolutely, absolutely. I know Aussie yen has been a great one of focus for, for me for, well, a couple years really since the trade talk started going off, came into focus. That's been one. Euro pound I like having a look at as well. And one of the things I actually do in the morning as well is have a look at all the— I've got a list of about 20 different currency pairs and have a look at them and, you know, do the same process here to see if there is anything of interest for me, um, and go about it that way. Uh, let's move on to— let's have a look at S&P considering we're talking about the Aussie. Uh, finished on the high of Friday, on Friday, so near the— near, near enough where its highest trading point was. It's still range-bound. I, I tweeted, I think it was in the middle to back end of last week, it is range-bound but it's at the top of the range. Um, while I'm confident that we push higher, and I am currently long near the, the lower level here. Um, I can't, I can't add to this unless we get above that area, unless we get above our 200-day moving average. People still talking about the, the 6-point— one second, let me just get this 200-day moving average on. People still talking about the fib level. Let me just get rid of that X. Now the 6.18, or the 0.618, I should say, for me that's no interest now. I'm not having that. I think it's too choppy around that level, so I'd move it. So this is how I'd set it up. Range bound above, we're bullish. You know, if that holds, we get a little false break, then yeah, bearish. Um, I would consider adding if we came back to test around 2890. Uh, we'll lower the time frame down in a moment. Just this area here, really nicely respected, nicely broke through here, came back. We haven't quite retested that level. Have I missed the opportunity on Friday AM? I don't think so. I don't think so. So I would consider adding around here for, for a long. However, I would just bear in mind, and I've been saying this to the guys on the, the professional program, just you can see when we've hit the top of these ranges, there hasn't been, you know, your straightaway pullback to get long. You can see it's hit that and come back down. So just bear that in mind. I think for me it'd be prudent to wait to see how it reacts, almost get a false break to then come back to look for those longs. But yeah, I, I'm, I'm, I'm bullish, uh, I'm bearish below 2890. So if we get a close below here, I'm bearish, and I just think we would come back down to here, which is where below here then I'm worried, um, for the equity market that we can push lower. I just don't see it happening personally. However, you know, what's, what's been quite common in the, in the markets over the last week was a lot of China and US trade rhetoric. You know, Hu Jijin and, and Trump going at it as usual, but it seems to be top, top headline at the moment. So bearing that in mind, it'd be again interesting to see what Anthony Cheung says so I could build that fundamental picture. I've got my technical view, uh, of where I want to get long or short, and you know where those targets would be, what the risk-reward would be, and when would the right time of the day be, or week, day of the week to take that. Is it going to be Monday looking for that big push, low volume? Unlikely, unlikely to be. Uh, moving on, uh, obviously focus here on the NASDAQ, but Again, talking about that correlation, you know, one of the comments in the chat— I mean, look how good this was. This is insane how fantastically well technical the NASDAQ was. Hits your gap fill to the tick, hits the next level of importance to the tick. We come back, uh, and the failure to close back below our previous high here is pretty key. The failure here to close below that high is pretty key. Bullish finish for me on the Friday, um, and could be all-time highs this time next week. We could be looking at all-time highs in the NASDAQ, to be honest. Uh, when is that view wrong? I would say, well, obviously it's wrong this time next Sunday if we don't, but when would I be bearish on this market? And for me, it's below, it's below the 15th of May high. So this kind of area here is where I would say I'd be a bit worried for, for longs for a while, and we can drift lower. The NASDAQ for me has been following the same pattern since the beginning of April: push, retrace, push, retrace, push, retrace, push. Now if that breaks and we do push lower, and then you start getting people looking at trend lines and all of these kind of things, then we get a break of that and suddenly you're below 9,000, you're testing here the, the low of the 14th, and things get ugly. If that doesn't happen, I think we have to push up. And a break of the high of last week, I'd expect the 200-day moving average in the S&P to also go. I'd also expect to break out the range in the Dow. You can see range— how's that not a range-bound market right now? We're hitting quality support, impressive resistance. You've got a nice midpoint in here. So bullish above, bearish below, and then our lines here. Bears in control, bulls in control above. Bulls in control of the low and bears there. Lovely trending market there. Range-bound market on the Dow to get a trend. Is it going to come on the Monday on the low volume? Probably not. Into the back end of the week. Can we get a push above? I'll be looking at the NASDAQ to maybe give us, uh, the, the cue there as well. Have a quick look— we'll have a quick look over gold and oil, uh, just to wrap things. I know I don't want to make this a massively long video for you guys. Um, I appreciate, you know, you've probably got better things to do on a Sunday. Um, but let's just have a quick look over at gold. For, for me I actually am long gold. Um, I got in Thursday evening as we came back down to test 21. Yeah, Thursday evening we came back down to test this area here. Um, with stops just below, I think there's not— there was a— I took it on the spot market, so it looks slightly different, but basically stops below this trend line here. Um, and and using this area of support. So I'm long, um, I'm excited if it gets above 1743. Um, I would also de-risk as we maybe approach these highs up towards here, and then you're looking at the high of the year on the futures. Uh, stop is, is below the trend line. If that goes, gold for me comes under a bit of pressure, 1700, and then obviously these points on the trend line as well. We had a good push a couple of Thursdays ago Uh, we came back lower, uh, on the Monday as stocks are pushing higher. Gold for me, a bit confused last week because you had some dollar strength when we came lower. We had some risk-off and dollar strength and it went higher. It's— I don't know, it's a bit confused. But we came back down to a nice, uh, area of support where the buyers have been in control, uh, previously taken over from the sellers. So this coupled with a bit of the trend line a good enough area to get long. Below there, I'm, I'm not as interested, and I think we push, push down. It seems a lot of people are bullish medium-term gold. It's the right scenario for me to be long gold. However, above that trend line, yes. Below, not so much. Uh, oil, just to wrap things, uh, as I say whenever I look at oil, you know, I'm not, um, I'm not an oil master, um, You know, I don't really trade it too often. Um, for me, I, I, I think we get to that 40. I do. Um, I think it's a matter of time. And we had a decent enough week last week. You can see we pushed high, higher. Um, when, when would I feel if I was long that that is, is, is wrong? Below $30. Below $29.11. Um, also there's been, you know, gradual grind higher. No trend line as such of yet, but probably worth looking into that. Decent push through, uh, to last week. We also hit some, you know, resistance from, from the 9th. Yeah, I, I think we go higher, but I'll leave really the, the oil to, to the pros. The, you know, so it's a great market. I know people trade it, but they really focus on it and it's one where you need to, in my opinion, if you're going to trade oil, know a lot about it and how it moves and, and whatnot. So another question here was the characteristics of each market, something we go through obviously at Amplify, um, on the, on the courses. You know, what times are best to trade, you know, when looking for momentum, uh, strategies, you know, what candle close is, is good and right in what time frame, uh, which markets are more technical, which zone sizes are bigger. You know, all of these things we, we go through, uh, on the course. But yeah, in, in summary for this video, you know, the, the thing I want to, you know, teach you guys or go through with you guys is we, we start with the fundamentals. So Ant's Macro Menu, your own research, then, you know, where does this fit in with the technical view. Let's just go back to the euro and say it's super bearish news over uh, the weekend where we can't sell straight away unless we get below this technical level. Because if we go back to last Sunday, super bearish, whatever, imagine you sell on the open Sunday evening and it pushes that high on the Monday and goes through. So trade what you see, not what you think. Have that fundamental view, but when are you technically right? When is the rest of the market agreeing with you? Then building that strategy, your risk-reward, your, uh, your levels you're choosing for your entry, exit, stop, executing. But when is the right time to execute that? And obviously exiting and reviewing that trade, which are all important to do. But yeah, guys, I'm going to wrap it there, uh, but please, any questions, do, do put them in the chat. If you want me to cover something else in a bit more detail, I can do, uh, as well. So just please do uh, let me know. But I hope you enjoy the rest of your Sunday. Uh, hopefully you've all got a nice day off tomorrow as well and the sun is shining where you are. But I look forward to catching up with you in the chat and also this time next week. So take care, guys, and I'll speak to you all very soon.