Weekly Trading Set-ups 27th - 31st July 2020

Hi guys, hope we're all doing well. Happy Sunday. Hope you've all had a good week as well. Sorry for missing out last week, but we're back, uh, and let's have a quick look over some of the charts, how we're set up going into what is expected to be a pretty important week. I'm sure by now you've watched, uh, and or read Anthony's Macro Menu, and certainly some, some interesting days ahead, most notably Thursday with some key earnings after the close on Wall Street as well. So yeah, I've just seen some, some tweets suggesting the, uh, the move could be expected to be in the region of sort of 3.9%, uh, either way, which would be, uh, pretty, pretty big to be fair. Uh, so we'll have a look over equity shortly. Let's get started and have a look over at the euro, which has, has obviously been hugely benefited from this weaker dollar. You know, are we looking at euro strength for a weaker dollar? I would suggest it's more on the dollar side of things. Um, but yeah, you can see here, this is, this is the levels that you'll see on this chart will have been drawn on from 2 Sundays ago. So, you know, I like to on the Sunday just have a quick look over, see how my levels reacted and whatnot. But here we were sort of looking officially, you know, 2 weeks back. But you can see that this trend line got the break, got the retest, and what an opportunity around that sort of 16th, 17th of July. Then strong resistance on, uh, the, the 10th of March. Then we find some resistance, uh, just before we get to that 9th. It smashes through, and even going through some of the, the next levels we, we had marked up going here to, uh, 31st of January. Now, and let's just remove everything We're now at, uh, and we finished on the high of the week, which was key because I was speaking to the traders about, you know, on, on Friday, if we sort of reject this whole area, I think there's another high I want to get involved just about here on that 16th of October. You know, if we rejected this area, then yeah, maybe people that believe there could be a short, uh, coming in soon would slightly get more excited. But yeah, we finished right at the top there above this high. That we had marked up from January last year, and now it's almost at October 2018 levels. That's a big zone, and I think, you know, a lot of, of people would welcome a bit of a pullback, uh, to be completely honest. Where, where would that pullback, in my opinion, be worthy? Uh, I, I think if we can sort of use this as a guide— I mean, you've got obviously these highs here, which we can mark up for sure— but I think towards that 115, 114, you'd still be relatively happy to to go long around there. And, uh, I mean, ultimately there's been some great opportunities along the way for pullbacks to get in. Uh, we've had, you know, I'm here in the futures, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 days in a row to the upside, similar to what we saw here at the back end of May. And it might be that we come into a bit of consolidation and we have to come back to around this area. Does that happen next week? Probably not. But something worth keeping a watch on, that's for sure. Now above these levels, 1.17 and beyond, you're really looking at highs from, you know, September '18. And this looks like a good enough point where you could find some sort of resistance before 1.18 comes in. And if we just go back to that 1.18 area, and this is, uh, sort of— here we go, 1.18. Yeah, around here. I mean, look at this for level. Really strong resistance again before it breaks to support. We then break through and we haven't come back again since. I don't think it's out of the question we get 1.18, uh, but that should in theory for me be quite a nice ceiling. Um, yeah, I, I— all of these areas of pullback will be worth keeping a watch on. Um, the, the bears haven't had a, a decent, decent go of it trying to break any areas of support. You can see even going back here when they do take a bit of control, just comes into another area to buy. So yeah, a lot of now resistance and support below where we're trading. The bears really need a new fundamental driver for this dollar to strengthen. I would say in an ideal world, uh, we come back to this kind of 0.115s, 0.114s without any new developments, and that could be an opportunity to load up, uh, the longs again, I would say. But yeah, it's, it's sort of done well to get through this whole level, this weekly trend line. So as well. Keep a watch on that should we, should we come back in. Let's have a look at that weekly chart and you can see what a week it was. But we're now coming into a key resistance zone. Are we starting to see a possibility for the top's biggest move? And you are looking then towards here, and we haven't had a close on the week above there since May 2018. And you can see that would be a level where If you do think the dollar is going to strengthen again and we're up there, is that the chance that people would want? Uh, we'll, we'll obviously find out shortly. But, uh, yeah, some really key levels there for the euro, uh, to have a little focus on. The pound finished bang, pretty much bang on the, the high that we had in the 10th of June. I'm just going to remove everything. For me, and I've said this for the lunchtime videos that you guys have seen on, on Amplify buy live and, um, you know, to our traders in-house. It, it's a buy as long as we're above this level in the 200-day moving average. You can of course make money selling this market intraday, but look at this— one, two retests of this zone where the buyers just take control. And, uh, now we're at a point like with that euro where we're hitting some key resistance. So it might be that people get a bit excited, but I'd happily not be selling even if we do come down. I'd say you're you're better off looking for a cleaner trade anyway underneath this level. And that's when you can get a relatively quick move down, you know, here, 150 pips, you know, obviously if it was to go there. But I think it would relatively cleanly. Let's have a quick look and see if we can start talking about some sort of trend lines in the mix. Yeah, I mean, sort of match up in there perhaps. But yeah, now, yeah, so that's the key, key level. That's the next one above where we're trading. Well, you've got to be careful here because you do have a couple points. Obviously, that 12th of March high is just a bit above. It's also a low from here. If we make this chart a bit, uh, bit thinner, you can see the significance of this market around this zone. So yeah, 128.51 could be a bit of a ceiling, couldn't it? You can see just the importance again of this point. You know, you've got support, resistance, support, yes, a bit choppy support resistance. So above there, you know, next thing you know, I, I, uh, 130 relatively quickly. And then even, could we be talking about getting back to 132s again if the dollar's weak and we have risk on? That's going to help this, uh, currency push higher. And obviously with the dollar weakness, then, you know, I don't think that is out of the question. But let's just mark up a couple of areas of potential horizontal resistance that we could see. Getting on that 200-day moving average as well for the pound is going to be important, uh, as with a few of these currencies and certainly the equity market, uh, the NASDAQ. The 21-day moving average is worth having a look at as well here, but you can see the significance once we broke through that and it's still acting as support along with this area. Let's call it 126 1.2670, not to be too specific. Uh, but yeah, that's how I, how I see the pound. If we do come back below our— and I'll shade this in because for me it's still the key, most key level for the pound— if we do come back below here, you know, just be aware of these previous highs as areas where you could potentially de-risk. But I would say you're likely to get a move down towards 1.25s as well. So the euro, you can see You get a lot of key resistance points ahead, uh, but the pound also bang on that. And I'd say the pound has been the easiest to trade, um, over the last few weeks. It's had nice moves, haven't really been consolidating in, in horrible ranges like that euro was for a bit, uh, whereas the pound has been moving quite nicely. But are we gonna see a, uh, a move lower this week? A bit of risk on could have— could help that, but And I mean, just having a look at the weekly, you can see the importance of this level. Risk reward short from there, it's not bad, is it? It's not bad, it's not bad for any of those currencies, it seems anyway. But, uh, trade what you see, not what you think. Uh, on the Aussie, you can see I had a bit of a trend line on those lows, and I remember saying I can't really justify a short unless we get below some of these levels. Previous high, by the looks of it, here on the 10th of June yes, on Friday— yesterday, Friday— uh, acts as great support. Um, so let's have a, let's have a little look at this now as well. Certainly to the downside, we know, we now know this is key along with these previous highs. I would say looking at this, the short again is similar to that, uh, that pound that you probably only want to get involved if we can get below this area here because these pullbacks are still working. In terms of horizontal resistance above where we're trading, let's have a quick look. And well, I mean, it almost, almost got to the levels we saw from Feb and April last year. That's going to be key. That is going to be key. I remember speaking as well to guys last week just about this zone here, in that if we can close back below there, you might start to see some selling come in Friday moved us lower, along with— actually, you can see here, really, from Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, we were just drifting lower, but the bull stepped in on Friday, uh, and, uh, you can see we finished above that level. But if we can get below there, I actually don't mind the short too much, to be completely honest. I think de-risking down towards these points here and here for a medium-term position could be, could be good. Overall, on the weekly, let's have a quick look. Um, yeah, again, if we can come up to that point, it looks strong resistance, doesn't it? You can see as well just on these areas here, it has been well respected. So yeah, 72, maybe it's a ceiling for now, but that said, above there, then, you know, you again have got decent-sized moves that could happen for this market. Uh, also worth noting, it is the, uh, on On, yeah, Friday is the last day of the month, so dollar buying into the end of the month may be worth having a little think about that, uh, as well. But for the Aussie at the moment, I'd say the buyers are in control unless we get below 70, uh, the, the pound below 2674, and the euro below 115s. For me, that's not to say you can't look for shorts up at these highs on a sort of a range you know, trade up here to, you know, get it down. But I'd say the buyers would still be looking to come in and take control even if we do push a bit lower. Now on to, to equities. I'll start with the NASDAQ. Um, look at that, you guys. So like I said, I haven't touched these for, for 2 weeks. You can see we hit the bottom end of that trend line, we hit the previous all-time high on the 23rd June and, uh, solid support. Now, is that— this the opportunity people have been waiting for to get in again? You know, if we have a look at percentage off the, the all-time high, the double top all-time high, yeah, it went, it went 6.8% down, you know, with the NASDAQ. Is that actually good enough for a dip? We've got some incredibly important earnings coming out though, so, uh, just bear that in mind along with the, the end of the month trading. Let's get the 21-day moving average on as well. And you can see we finished below there. Now that's not the most, uh, it's not the be-all and end-all. It's not like, okay, I'm selling at the open, because you can see a couple of times, uh, we have finished below there, closed below. So it's not big enough close. And also you would say you would wanted it below that, uh, that high that we had previously on the 23rd of June. Uh, so to— let's just remove these arrows. So to the upside, you know, where I would say if you don't feel comfortable buying at these levels, if we can get back above what was the low that we had on the 22nd of June and also the 15th, uh, high— I know it's a fair whack away, but that's where I would say, okay, the bears aren't interested anymore. Uh, we're currently just a bit below this area of support as well. Let's have a look at that on the 60. And it's probably going to get a bit messy now, but you can see here, this is that first area I want— I would want to see, uh, the bulls get above. I would say that's safer. However, if we do, you know, get some good, good, good sort of buying pressure on the open, you know, above these areas here from the 14th, 16th, 17th, you may well see a decent move to sort of fill this area. So Yeah, for the NASDAQ at the moment, it's not for me a sell yet, uh, because we haven't closed below the trend line, we haven't closed below the previous all-time high, and the 21-day moving average not significant enough just yet for, for a close there. If we do drift down, just be aware, you know, I wouldn't say it's out the question then, to be honest, that $10,000 comes in again, or this low from the 29th of June. But that would be key. A break of this trend channel would certainly be key. So Yeah, eyes on, eyes on S&P, um, 500. I mean, this hasn't been altered for 2 weeks. I mean, looking at that, has much really happened? You know, I would— I actually, I took a trade on this, uh, previous high and I de-risked a tiny bit on the day. And I, I actually thought, you know what, we— that could be the, the low now and we push on. Wasn't to be the case. And, um, the, the remainder of that trade was break-even, stopped out. But, you know, it's not the end of the world, of course. Um, but we're coming into an area now where it is key, you know. And it's like, if the NASDAQ gets below that area that we talked about here— now let's just get a little circle on there just because that is massively important, isn't it? If we can get back below, um, 31.83 in the S&P, these, these previous lows in the mix here where we gapped higher, uh, following that virus news, uh, vaccine news, then I would say that's pretty important. And, you know, we could, we could start to drift down. Let's just do this fresh, uh, to the upside. Obviously we're gonna have the high of last week, but it's a zone, it really is a zone, and the gap fill that could, can come with that If we get above there, it's all-time highs, and we're not far away. You know, at yesterday's— last week's high, I should say— we're only 3, 3.5% away from the all-time high. Incredible. Uh, but yeah, the important support points that I'd be looking at is this 3,100 as well, down here. You know, for me, the S&P is— I don't think we get here again. Anytime soon, but these would be the support points of interest that I think are the key lines in the sand to focus on. And then obviously this whole resistance zone to the up, and you know, that's what— that's how I would have that on. Um, it hasn't been moving massively, I have to say. It has been, you know, chilling out a bit. 21-day relatively well respected recently, that could come into play as well. For now, it's not panic stations for me to sell, but Twitter at the moment feels as if it's going that way. I have to say, starting just to feel a bit, bit on edge about things. But it's a big week, um, as well. And I have to say, did anyone watch the, uh, the, the, the Trump and, uh, and Portnoy, uh, is that his surname? I don't want to get that wrong because it was a fantastic interview. It really was. Great. If you haven't seen it, you know, go and watch it, whatever your view on Donald Trump. Yeah, Dave Portnoy. Whatever your view on Donald Trump, it was just fascinating just listening to it and how he sort of opened up and was saying how he regrets some of his tweets all the time. He thinks, "Oh, why did I say that?" And he was saying the retweets he sends sometimes are the ones that get him in trouble. So it was quite an interesting interview. So give that a watch. Give that a watch. But yeah, he— what I got from that was, was, you know, Trump, it is his baby, this stock market. And, you know, I think there's still upside left to come for sure. Dow Jones not enabled. Okay, well, I need to— I need to refresh my computer to get that working again. But for the gold, You can see we pushed on, we broke our resistance, we came back to find support on that level. A bit of resistance on my other area I got marked up here before we smashed through. And 19, 19.8 seems touching distance away, doesn't it? Uh, why have I got that marked up? Well, that's the high on futures, isn't it? All-time high from the 12th of September 2011. You, you imagine that comes now, you know, you'd be surprised if it doesn't. Uh, if you're long you're de-risking, uh, just a bit before there, of course, taking a bit of your trade off. But, uh, yeah, strong move, strong move for gold. Um, daily, where's your pullback point if you, if you don't want to FOMO long it? Maybe even that, back down towards here, unfortunately. I mean, you could obviously, uh, yeah, I mean, it's a fair whack away, isn't it? A fair whack away. It's going a bit vertical now. Now where it can be a bit tricky to, to get on these loose ends. But, uh, you know, if you're not in, you know, take, take, uh, take your time. There's other markets, isn't there? But yeah, yeah, it's, it's, it's a buyer's market at the moment. But you know, the lesson being, you know, as long as we stay above here, I'd be comfortable but still being long or looking for longs. Oil, uh, it did get that, uh that fill, look, and the close above. We retest it, find support. Not, uh, yeah, I don't know, looking at that, you're happy to be, to be bullish this market still, I would say. And you know what was quite interesting was the, the sort of, you know, these new trend lines that are appearing, and we haven't had a significant close below. Uh, so yeah, is that a key line in the sand, isn't it? I think If you're— you don't want to be long oil over the weekend, as we know from this year. Um, but see how it unfolds this week, or this, this evening, and, uh, upon the futures open, the market open, because I don't think it's a bad long here as long as we stay above the trend line. Below there, I think you can get— you can start to get a move back down towards $30, $39, and then $37 for sure. If we hold, then obviously got the highs from, from last week, and, and then this area, uh, where we're talking $43, $44, $45 as well. So yeah, some, some, some key levels in there. Silver went vertical. You can see here, um, it's not even on my screen, it went that high. Wowza! Wow, wow, wow. Um, and this is a weekly chart. What a week that Silver. Yeah, I mean, it struggled, didn't it? You know, you can see we're sort of saying— I remember being— you still happen to be long above this area. I don't quite know why I've highlighted that point, really. I can't remember. I've watched the video about— but yeah, this area, you can see once we got above that and the, and the high from the year, it, uh, it let off and it really did push and push and push. I mean, you, you can imagine people start thinking about this area coming into play around $26, to be honest. And obviously it has a little week like it did last week. You get that. Um, I'm not gonna jump in and say, you know, it comes crashing down here, but you'd expect, you'd expect a bit of a move to control the speed of this. The margin has increased as well. And you'll remember, was it 2011? It was 2011, wasn't it, for gold when they increased the margin? And that actually, I believe, marked the top pretty much when they increased the margin. Was it 2011? It was, wasn't it? Someone in the comments just confirmed that. I mean, I'll check in a moment, but it was this is where the gold margins were increased. You can see became lower. So for silver, it wasn't meaningful, it wasn't massively that the margins to hold a contract were increased. But now when that happens, it might lead to a bit of a move down. So just bear that in mind, just bear that in mind. The DAX, um, yeah, I mean, again, it would be— I didn't get long the DAX, but I'd have been happy to, to hear, thinking, you know, yes, you would have de-risked at this moment here. And to be fair, you know, when it doesn't close above there 3 days in a row, you, you start moving your stops to, to sort of scratch. And it comes back there now. And to be honest, it did find support on those lows. So again, how it finished on, on the week, you're not— it's not panic stations yet. It's not. Um, it's set up quite nicely. Let's just refresh this because technically this market is actually, I think, behaved quite nicely. So you'd have these lows in here from the 15th of July marks up a good area of support. That doesn't hold, then you're looking, uh, towards the low of the 3rd of July. We haven't had a close below there, and then really I would say you're sort of looking to these areas here as well. So some nice support points to come in, uh, if, if we are to, to move lower. Trendline break, it's steep, it's on the day, it's key, but Yeah, I don't know. I don't know if that's enough to make me want to sell just yet. I'm happy to be wrong on that, of course. But, uh, and then to the upside, the highs that we had, no close above there will be key. Obviously then the high of last week, gap fill, and then the high. Simple, you know, those would be the levels I'd have on. Trade what you see, not what you, you think. Um, looking at the 60-minute, obviously the, the trendline break was, was well respected enough. You know, if we can get back above the trend line and these lows, then yeah, fine, maybe that's where you would want to get long rather than down here. But, uh, yeah, some, some key points, some key points in there. Anyway guys, we'll wrap it there. Hope you all enjoyed that, um, and any questions, get them in the comments below. But I look forward to doing this again next week, and I hope you'll have a great week ahead.