Weekly Trading Set-ups 28th September - 2nd October 2020

Hi guys, good evening. I hope you all had a great week. It is Saturday evening. I've got a few things on tomorrow, so I thought I would get the video out nice and early rather than tomorrow evening. So, uh, fingers crossed nothing happens overnight, but in 2020 it's, it's hard to know whether that will be the case. Also, throughout the week, please, uh, you know, if you are interested in having a look at the, the charts that I look at on a daily basis, head over to my, my Twitter page, give me a a follow. I'll be posting charts on a more regular basis each morning, but also throughout the day. Another thing before we get into the charts, we've got our Advanced and Professional Trading Program starting on the 5th of October. So whether you're looking to get into trading or you're looking to develop your skills ahead of the US election, for example, please do feel free to get in contact with me via Twitter or also via email, which I'll put in the, the link below, but it's s.north@amplifiedtrading.com. Let's have a quick look over at the charts. We'll do the usual setup where we, um, sort of have a look at some of the levels we had on from last week and, you know, assess things as, uh, we, we go into a new one. Um, so we started on— when was last Friday? It'd be the 18th. I think we finished Yeah, pretty, pretty in between, uh, two decision points. We were saying you've got the trend line or you've got the long if it can get above 119, favoring the downside of course. But market, you know, let the, the chart tell you what really happens. So then we break through, uh, obviously you can see here it closed and continued to push below the, um, the, the low that we had from the 3rd of August. For me, it, uh, it doesn't look too good for, for the euro. I have to say, it's um, it, it feels like you've got one negative from the break of the trend line, you've got two negatives on the break of the, the support point from the beginning of August that, that's held things up, you've got the moving averages that's gone through, but also it does feel like there's a fair bit of room for it to go down to some of these points that we had on from the 9th of March. Now as we go through, you've got to just be aware of these other previous highs, because they will be looked at. And you can see then, if we do push down, there are multiple points where people will potentially look to take profit, or we can reverse from. But in terms of the most important of those, I would say 115 is that. But that said, let's just talk about some of those highs that could come into play, previous highs. So we've got here the 10th of Jan, a little bit after that towards the end of January, 31st. It looks like middle of March, and then of course the middle of March— yeah, last year, of course. I was, for some reason, I think in 2020 there, and then we got the 2020 March level there. So there will be points that people do look at, but certainly on the way the, the day, uh, or Friday, I should say, that meant the week finished, it doesn't look too good. Now if you are looking for some longs, or there are some comments that come out or data points next week that suggest we could start to push higher, when would I really feel more comfortable about seeing a push to the upside? Well, for me, it's got to be above now what was such good support. It's got to be above this 117 area. And you can see a couple of times the resistance has come back pretty much bang on to that point and held, uh, very well there. Um, let me just check something quickly. Yeah, just making sure that's, uh, the right contract. It is. Um, so yeah, just strong resistance there. So above there on a close, then I think there's a, a half decent opportunity of then getting back up to the trend line. And above both of those, there's probably a reason behind it, and we are then looking to push to the upside. Now, as we, we go into this new week, you've got obviously the low of last week, uh, which, you know, is, is that previous high from 2019 as well. A break of those, then there is a fair bit of room to go 1.16, mid-1.15s as well. One thing to, to note, uh, and I'll just bring up the, uh, the, the calendar, is we've got 3 days left of September, so we've got month-end trade, uh, trading, 3 days left of the month, but also the quarter. So I'm actually expecting Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday to be slightly choppy if anything, um, but I'm still favoring a move to the downside. So still expecting a bit of dollar strength here, certainly against the euro, and seeing this, uh, follow through towards, uh, these, these sort of 115 area. What happens around there is a different story. I think it is, it's a point where for this to happen, the dollar is going to be strong across the board, which is at the moment seeing in correlation with equities where they do push down as well, I think it would be another week, uh, of, of, uh, price action, you know, dollar strength, risk-off if you like, as well, uh, that the Fed might start to come out and say a thing or two. Uh, you know, very much the, the sell-off that we've seen, if you want to call it that, across markets was triggered by the, uh, the Federal Reserve meeting that we had back on the the 16th. No fresh new stimulus, no bazookas left. Perhaps it was what the market is just unwinding here. So certainly an interesting time. Obviously we've got on Tuesday, you've got the election, uh, first debate, which is going to be— it's going to be incredible. I'm definitely staying up for that. I think it's going to be, um, yeah, it's going to be interesting whether that really can move the dollar or not too much. I don't think so. And, and, uh, if debates are anything to go by last time, uh, it's probably going to get quite ugly. And, you know, people don't really, in my opinion, change who they're going to vote for based on debates. But I think it will be useful watching. Let's have a look over the pound. We said, didn't we, it's, uh, you know, I don't usually say to go short on an open, but it had that feel. Um, and we know we had a resistance level where you would say, look, okay, I'm wrong if it goes above 130, and it just couldn't, it couldn't, of course. And and the selling started early last week. And, uh, the only, the only thing you would say— and I'm just going to remove the, the text here just to give us a bit of room— the only thing you would say is it had a bit of a lifeline on Wednesday that led to a push higher, and then again on Friday. Friday's close for me isn't bullish, uh, and the fact that we're still below this area here that was the low 11th of September on the close is, is something where I'd be happy to stay short. But it's not a wake up, or, you know, depending where you are, of course, on the futures open and sell the pound. It's more if you're not in a position. I think it is a short if we continue to push below 1.2671, these highs that we've got from the 9th of July. You would have seen on my Twitter, if you, if you're following me, I'm really talking about this level. The pound has to finish above it. It did so it gives itself a bit of a lifeline. Now the problem we, we're going to have is the euro, while it did hit some support, it's got a fair way— it's got to get above 1.17 before we can start, you know, seeing the dollar weaken. And the pound at the moment, it's had 3 days of indecision. If anything, it's great that it's not made a new low, but I don't think there's, you know, enough reason for— to say we can get in long. And where would that be? I mean, you could potentially have an argument for sort of 1.28 $1.3822, which is the low that we had back on the 16th. And it also would mean we're now above Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday's high. But for me, I don't know, it doesn't seem too bullish at the moment. And you've got problems with, you know, Brexit. You know, Anthony Cheung was saying in his briefing on Friday, wasn't he, how, you know, Brexit's all well forgotten last week because of the COVID cases were going higher. We're, you know, we're now coming into a new week where Brexit talks will be back on the agenda. Although, you know, a couple of comments on Friday, I think it was, where, you know, talks have been going better than, than expected. Look, I, I think there, there is, you know, eventually going to be a deal, but this whole move lower is justifiable with, you know, as well some dollar strength. I, I think it's interesting right now for the pound. In summary, I would say— I'm just going to remove one of these lines— I, I would be happy to stay short on that retest that we talked about from last week, as long as it stayed below 128.22. For the longs, I'd even be a bit hesitant about getting in above there. For continuations, uh, below 126.71 is obviously worth keeping a watch on. I think it's worth, you know, maybe I'll do a video during the week for the close of the month as we just bring this in, certainly from an area that people are going to look at, it is exactly that. You look at, you know, this is going back to 2016's resistance turns to support, turns to support, can't get close below. Then when we finally do, you get a bit of a push down. I— okay, yes, a bit messy around these, these, these points, but look, these, these are monthly candles, and when price doesn't, you know, quite close above or below, then you do get a decent, uh, push either way. So we've got a test of it. Do we push below? A break below, so in the next 3 days, which is not out of the question the way the pound's been moving at all, uh, we could well see a decent, uh, you know, continuation towards sort of 120 really. You know, when you look at back at things in hindsight, I did say to, you know, the traders I wanted to short on the false break of the the election high. It never got there. Um, and you know, I didn't chase it. I took a couple intraday trades on it for sure, but you know, you can just see what happens when levels don't quite, you know, get there on, on certain time frames. So yeah, keeping a watch on that, uh, as we get to Wednesday evening. Is that right? Yeah, Wednesday evening. And obviously Thursday is the, the new day of the month. Aussie dollar, uh, I think we had the trend line— yeah, trend line on it. Break, retest, you know, that is Sometimes you just don't get anything better than that, really. Close below, dollar strengthening elsewhere, the pound under pressure, euro-dollar having a bad day, and you get there 1, 2, 3, 4 following days of nice selling to where the target would, would be. It's, it's a piece of art. If you took that on, you, you would have booked some profit, I hope, on the 9th of June high. You're happy, you're really happy it's below there on, on the close. I mean, if we want to say— I mean, even if you bring in this, this next level here, it, it's bearish. I have to, have to say, um, I had a couple of Aussie shorts from up here, which I didn't manage it as well as I'd like to. I certainly didn't get this, uh, whole move, but it doesn't look good for, for the bulls. Trendline there, I mean, it wasn't great because those three don't connect quite well. It not much stood in its way, and, and if you, you know, took these points as profit targets, you know, they're all perfectly reasonable. So levels below where we're trading, um, well, we've got, you know, some previous resistance here chopped up. For me, that's not key enough, but this area is. And I think this would be a point where the Aussie in early trade might be quite attracted to, towards 69.23. And if it was to get below there, then we really are seeing a bit of an unwind. At some point, if the, if the dollar is really going to kick on, then, you know, this could well be the sort of ultimate target. Remember this sort of double top that we had before? A big push 1st of June. I don't think that's out the question, to be completely honest. It's, uh, let's bring in some Fibs. I actually have— I'm not a massive Fib user, um, and I had— and I, you know, when I, when I do this, this, this chart overview with you guys, I, I never do anything before. I really want to live it as if I was going through it just purely on my own. And this is interesting, isn't it? You know, the Fib here, you know, so I had no idea that the 38 $69.2 would be here, but it is. But look at that. I think for me that's, uh, that's a long. I think that's a long, and it fits my narrative on dollar to strengthen for a couple more weeks and, uh, and then the Fed to come out, um, you know, as, as they see it come under a bit of pressure or more pressure, these, the equity markets. So yeah, I think the obvious points of now of interest can be $69.23. I mean, you probably would come out before the low, uh, of the 15th, so $68. Handle, maybe 28 above that, and then 68.85. When is this wrong? I mean, look, you could potentially argue for the false break of this point. And I think, you know, while all of these previous lows now from the trend line offer resistance, I think that's fair enough if we are to— and I think with certainly with the pound and the, the euro and obviously the Aussie, I think to get long there has to be a fundamental shift, uh, there has to be something. I mean, the dollar's driving things at the moment for me. It's nothing to do with— I mean, look, maybe it's got a tiny bit to do with sort of, you know, European numbers, you know, flight, uh, to safety. But, um, I think cases are, you know, they are what they are. I don't think it's the be-all and end-all right now. I think it's more a story of the dollar and the Fed didn't deliver, so we're seeing that. So something fundamentally on the US dollar for me has to change. Comments of course could be that, so keep an eye out for Fed officials. They spoke enough last week, didn't they? Uh, dollar yen, um, we had this line on, didn't we? Uh, when was the— yeah, it would be Friday the 18th. Where's the 18th? 18th. Okay, false break of that low. Lovely, lovely. I mean, I, I'd all said— I'd have said if we close below there And maybe I'll go back and watch the video from, from last weekend, but if we close below there, then you are— I imagine I was saying, you know, you're looking down towards these, these levels. That doesn't happen, we close above, I mean, what an opportunity to, to get in the longs there. And this for me, yeah, and we'll have a look at T-notes as well, which we don't usually go through, don't really know why, but this for me is, is saying everything about this not being a risk move. This is purely dollar. This is, you know, people say, oh, people forgot about the yen being a safe haven. Well, You know, why is it, why is it that, you know, this move isn't anything to do with, with being safe? It's the dollar strengthening elsewhere. And now we're above this level, you know, we've got long here or we've got short. You know, it's that sort of line in the sand that we've always been talking about. The close of the week's above. We'll have a look at the month, of course. You know, this is then the next resistance point, this little breakdown that we had. We actually pushed through, pushed through on the 14th of September, uh, and those levels look to come in. And then really, I would say The next point are all those highs, which we'll just mark up. I'd say that'd be an obvious target before you start looking towards this triple top that we had on the daily— uh, on the weekly close, sorry. It's, uh, for dollar yen, I'm expecting more dollar strength. So let's just have a quick recap of the, the currencies. Euro, I mean, okay, bit of support, but it's not looking good. And as long as it stays below 117, it continues down for me. Uh, the pound, okay, in a bit of limbo, but can you get long right now? Probably not. Continuation downside below 126.71. Aussie dollar doesn't look good for, you know, any bulls. And, and likewise with, uh, well, the dollar-yen is obviously the other way around, so any yen bulls against the dollar doesn't look too good. And I'd say we get a push here, but daily closes are key, monthly closes are key. We hit this level, we reverse, and then suddenly finish the day below this, you know, middle rectangle, which I'll just highlight, then things can, can go, go lower here. So, you know, risk management is obviously the most important thing, um, but, uh, you know, trade what you see, and, and the month will, the month end will show a lot of that, and quarter of course. Equities, uh, I don't know why that's not showing, so let's just bring in, let's just bring in— oh, my internet has decided to pause. So while it's, uh, hopefully picking up, we'll see if we can have a look at any of the other charts which don't want to, to load just now. Okay, we got one here on copper. Yeah, so this was, you know, I don't know why there's a bit of a gap here. This is on the week, that's why. So I mean, that week doesn't look good at all, does it, for copper? And this is, you know, a bit of dollar strength really hurting commodities here. So this high goes, breaks above. Okay, doesn't quite find support, um, I mean, doesn't quite, you know, finish that week below, but now it does. It's not painting a pretty picture, whereas beginning of last week it pretty much looked quite nice. So yeah, for, for if I was long copper and had been for a while, the way we finished last week would make me want to unwind most of that position. I would say. Let's just have a quick look to see if we've got the internet back. Not quite yet. Okay, well, here's one chart. No, the DAX doesn't want to load up just yet. Well, we'll give it a couple of moments, and if it doesn't load up, I'll just put this into two different videos, which isn't a problem. Give it a minute or so. Okay, doesn't want to load up just yet, so I'll do it in two videos. But guys, just to reiterate, please, please do feel free to reach out to me at any time during, during the week. Just, you know, you can, you can send me a message via Twitter. My DMs are open, and I'll be posting, you know, a lot more charts than I have normally. Now I'm going to start putting some ones in the morning and afternoon as well. And just on that, just as I was about to kick close, the S&P decides to awaken. So let's have a quick look and, and go through that here. Um, the way it finished— look, I, you know, I'm, I'm a, I'm a big equity bull longer term. You know, it's, it's something I like dips to buy. I'd love it to come down lower for, you know, my longer term ETFs to get in. The way we finished on, on, um, on Friday is, is positive. It is, okay? It finished above this low that we had from the pre on the 9th, just, okay, but not, not massively. It didn't quite get to this level, the 3178 that we marked up, which is a bit of a worry. I'd like to have seen that break and come back, much like we, we saw in the yen. I'd like to see that on the S&P to get in some. Um, but yeah, you can see we're above, um, also with the, the moving averages on the equities, worth having a look at your 100 days because they did come into play across the board there. So a bit of support on, on those, so keep a watch on that. Uh, going into then to the new week, uh, and of course month as we do, I would, would mark up this resistance point. I mean, for me, you know, 3414 is is where I said finish above there and it's all-time highs, and it hadn't come back lower. We closed below. I mean, look how beautiful this is, turns to resistance, and we come back down to it towards this area. Above 34, 33.14, uh, and you've got to be positive US equities. Um, but that said, you know, if it does hit it, fails to break, then I think we can really push, push to the downside, and then I'd be looking 31.78, and you know you know, it closed below there is 3100. It's at that point the 200-day moving average would come in, and I think that actually is a good opportunity to buy. Like I said, I can see more dollar strength coming, and I don't think the Fed— I don't think the market's low enough equity-wise for the Fed to really come out and say this, that, and the other. I mean, it's 7-8% off of the high. That's nothing, is it really? Um, but yeah, that's how I would look at— look at the S&P. The NASDAQ, um, I mean, again, looks, looks good, finished above these lows. And, you know, tech is going to outperform, and it can be a great lead here. So I would say you've got your 50-day moving average, which was fantastic on Wednesday along with the Dow. A close above there is, is solid. If you want to be late to the party, it's like, you know, same area in the S&P. I mean, these charts look the same, of course they do. If we can get finishes above, you know, these areas, then, you know, we, we push on. And this is what is very key, you know, when we do test lows, do we close below? That's a great opportunity to have got in. And Friday continued that momentum. Yes, it's in a bit of limbo. This is your line in the sand, 50-day moving average. If that, uh, if we get close above, technically speaking, I think we then obviously touch the 21-day and the last high that we had from, you guessed it, the Fed meeting, and above that, and it's all-time highs. We hit this level, we come back lower, um, I would then obviously move this line back down to the lows of the week, and we have a lot of resistance, uh, support, sorry, I should say, uh, from the 24th of July. The Dow is the same. You can see— oh, let me get the moving average cross— and we should see the 50-day moving average yet Wednesday's high. I mean, look at that, it's lovely. Gotta have that on. Um, it finished Friday bang on the low of the, of the 9th. So out of the 3, it's, uh, it's the NASDAQ that looks the best, but they've all got resistance just a bit above. But it is a lot more positive than it looked last week. And you can see here, we— the 50-day moving averages for the Dow and the NASDAQ are massively important. 3414 is, but by the time it gets there you've also got to start talking about the 50-day, uh, levels. The downside remain, uh, the same ones that we've had on all week. Uh, the DAX, um, break of the trend. I know a few people in the comments last week were saying they like the look of that. Um, could you have got in, uh, after that daily close? It, it was pretty much then flat. So tricky one for those who are more patient. More aggressive on the break of of, uh, the trend line, obviously it's great. And you know, sometimes that trading is of course rewarded. Could easily have sort of risked, uh, de-risked as we got down to that 31st of July low. Didn't finish too well, but it finished a lot better than, than it was as we came into sort of midday. So a decent little pullback, probably dragged higher by, by US, US equities, um, as well. Going into it, we've got those levels. I mean I would have this high on— I don't— yeah, I'd have this high on here, which marks now the, the high of the 23rd. I probably would remove this level, and I'd say— I'm not a massive DAX trader, but it's almost like I'd be interested in a long or short based on below and above, obviously just being aware of that previous trend line. And also 13,000, I think, is actually now looking at that quite a good place to go short. So for the long. I mean, yeah, of course it's great if you get it and ride it to the all-time high. I would just prefer to look for long equities elsewhere. I think there's too much of a risk with, one, resistance level, two, uh, with the trend line, and three, with, with this point here. But we'll see how it, how it goes. Uh, gold, um, yeah, break of the trend goes down and, and, uh, You know, I did a poll, I did a poll and asked, is gold along here? And I think it was, it was Thursday, and the reason we were sort of, um, I was saying that is because of this level. You know, when I did last Sunday, you'd think, you know, okay, this would be a target, great target, uh, and that would have been the next point. Uh, we hit that, find support. Is that the low? Is that the low now? Um, if I'm expecting more dollar strength, which I am I'd say there's a bit more downside to come here. So let's just mark up some of these levels. The low from what is the, the 14th of July and all of those wicks as we came back down. You can see this market has quite a bit of support below. I think— I don't necessarily think we can come back down towards 1717. I think 1800, the previous sort of high that we had from April, that could be a point where I like the look of a long. I I also, you know, with, with these, with these, uh, let's just remove the text. With these moves that are pushed down like that, you might expect to continue to go on. It's always worthwhile just having your levels where you say, you know what, anyone that's short probably doesn't want to be short above 1885. So that's kind of the, you know, close above there, I think we can then push on. Obviously it doesn't mean we then go to the all-time high again because there's a lot of resistance levels in the way, and obviously you de-risk as you go, but it just means that it's just going to stall that, that bigger push to the downside. Close, uh, of the day, week, month, quarter below 1850, and it's a different story. And it's a different story. So look at oil. Let's have a look at oil. Um, not quite sure why we have on the the arrow, probably because where it finished, wasn't it? Uh, and that continued to push down, came to, yeah, this area of support which you'd have on nicely marked up, if I do say so myself. And it's decision time now. Okay, so we've got a couple markets— gold, equities, and now oil— which are very reliant on a decision above or below these points that we marked on. I'm bullish above 4149, I'm bearish below 38.70. Things unwind throughout the week, comments come out, inventories for oil, uh, and comments I'm sure will be plenty. Um, but the way that finished, there's a lot of indecision there for me. There's a lot of indecision. I think you would have had a lot of people that take profit on, uh, this area here. That's a bit annoying that my lines have all gone elsewhere. Um, but, uh, yeah, if we, we close below or above, I think there's going to be a decent opportunity either way. Um, I said we'd look at T-notes just to wrap it up. Sorry for dragging on a bit this week. Um, that is a sign for me that, you know, if this market can't rally on, you know, equities coming down, then, you know, certainly not for me a risk-off move. That said, you could argue the same, you know, if the dollar is strengthening, why are T-notes not going higher? It, it's, it feels like something's coiling up, doesn't it? It really does. Which way is it going to go? Get your answers in there in the chat. T-notes higher or lower? What happens first? Do we push down towards the double bottom that we saw last test of that on the 28th of August, or do we go to the highs that we had back on the 5th? A or B? Um, you know, let's just call this level A. I don't think we get these next week, but let's have a quick, uh, quick look at those. What happens first? You'd argue we're likely to see A Um, but if the dollar does really start to strengthen, then this can come under pressure as well. So decision time, not much happening, more exciting markets elsewhere. Uh, in, in summary, um, just be aware, guys, you've got the end of the month on Wednesday, which is also the end of the quarter. Uh, the euro, uh, and a couple of the other pairs don't look great but do have a bit of support just below. So just bear that in mind. The S&P NASDAQ and Dow, keep an eye on those 50-day moving averages. Gold, oil, all very well set up. DAX, I personally would leave that alone, a touch, unless you're already holding a trade, of course. Anyway guys, hope, uh, hope it was good. If you're watching tonight, I hope you enjoy your Sunday. If you're watching tomorrow, I hope you had a good weekend, and I'll catch you all next week or over on Twitter.