Weekly Trading Set-ups 29th June - 3rd July 2020

Hi guys, good afternoon. It's actually Saturday rather than the Sunday. I've got a busy day or couple of days ahead. It's my brother's birthday today, so we've got a family barbecue tomorrow. Hopefully the weather holds up a bit. And it's my good friend Connell's birthday today, so happy birthday Connell, you little musker. But I thought I'd do it now, you you know, while we've, uh, when I've got the chance. So, you know, this time in, in 24 and a bit hours, uh, there could be some more developments. So just bear that in mind when watching this. The last couple of weekend stops— stocks have been, um, negatively priced over the two days of Saturday and Sunday, which has led to a gap down. I reckon we see the same thing, to be honest. I think one thing of note, which is quite interesting, which I don't think the press is really taking much note of, is the story with the— that in the sewers in Barcelona last year, supposedly they found traces of the virus. So could we— that we're actually on the second wave now? For me, that would be bullish, you know, the fact that we've lived with this, you know, albeit on a smaller scale already. And, and been able to get through. It might be that if that was to gather momentum, we see some— but anyway, as we come back on the Monday, worth, uh, just saying that you've only got a couple of days before it's the beginning of July. So a lot of the month-end rebalancing, quarter 2 rebalancing, has been done, uh, on that end of the week. So let's just have a quick run through, um of each market, of how we finish the week. And as usual, we'll carry on to develop some new levels if there are any for the week. But as, uh, as we go into the new month, I've just encouraged you all to, you know, put it onto a monthly, um, monthly candle, or however you look at your charts, just to get that data. How did we finish the month? What are the, you know, the, the longer-term investors looking at? Uh, euro. Yesterday, yesterday week, last week, Monday, we hit— well, Friday we hit this level. Monday, great reaction. Tuesday, great reaction. I remember speaking to our traders thinking, is this going to be the level where you look back in hindsight and it's just so easy to get long? Um, and then we're off to the races. But it got above the, you know, that, that choppy line in the sand, um, and then I had the Wednesday and Thursday off, and when we came back lower, uh, it seems that stocks, you know, took a downturn. Maybe it's just a bit of end of month rebalancing because I, I, I put the question out on, on the, on the Thursday or the Wednesday, is there anything new for this sell-off? And there wasn't really, wasn't really. I think it's worth keeping an eye on the polls. Biden's getting a big lead, uh, and the numbers in the US are accelerating massively. But unless they're gonna, you know, shut down, you know, I think we still overall gonna move higher. Interstate quarantine or whatever that got announced is bearish, I guess, you know, that's something to think about. But overall, I don't think there was major developments last week, to be completely honest. But the dollar caught a bid on the last couple of days, but on Friday you can see it was relatively unchanged. So looking at the euro— sorry, I feel waffling on a bit— I would still have this line in the sand. I think it's important, you know, just as a guide really. So I think at the moment, you know, you have to say bears are in control, but I'd be a buyer above that sort of 1.1282 level, targeting up towards these highs again. Um, that we got from the 16th and then the 23rd. I mean, the long from here, you are going to de-risk around this area, aren't you? Um, before we would have got to the high that we had— what's that— on the, the, um, the sort of 10th of June. Um, however, you know, looking at this move, you know, might be we have to come back up, find a bit of resistance to come back down, and then we are looking at the double bottom, which is a massive area. I, I wouldn't feel comfortable being bullish if we do close the day below there. However, we have got a big area of support just below as well. So, you know, for the, for the bears, if you're watching this and, you know, you may well already be in a nice position, I think that the daily close has to come between both of those levels as well. And even then, de-risk as it, as it comes down. I really like the long from here. However, if I was long, I do regret not being in it, and I would have de-risked and held. You know, as long as this level holds, it could be that the second bite of the cherry is to come from that 112 handle. So yeah, keep a watch on that for the euro. Um, that longer term trend line that people were looking at on the, the weekly as well, you can see if I just draw this, uh, quickly on— where is it? Yes, making sure I get the right one. You see that there? One test, two tests, three tests. It might be that the main, you know, we've just seen the opposite of the, the push higher from the trend line we had down the bottom. You know, it might be that we just need to come all the way back down. Something to bear in mind as well, certainly that longer time frame, you can see the importance of that. So are we just getting squeezed both ways? And you know, for, for the bears, a close below the 112 on the day, then I think you can get a move back down to the 110 handle, give or take a few pips either way. The pound, um, last week, you can see we— tricky one, wasn't it? You know, you got that— if you're purely looking for the trade of the trend line, um, it would have, it would have been a hard one. You would have, you know, the retest, it got then above this area on the close of the day. You might have maybe fancied the short and got stopped, or the fact that we go Got in above here for the long. Uh, choppy, choppy. I think, you know, a lot of people may well got cut up on that pound looking at this sort of the daily closes. It then was— it was nice to trade, I should say, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, a lot easier. And it's almost like we had a false break of this level. It came then back, and that resistance level was so key for the push lower. We made a new low for the week, but Interestingly, uh, we, we closed right on that low that we had on the 22nd. So, uh, the levels to the downside that I talked about last Sunday, I would still have on, you know, they're very key. Now for that trend line, it's not good enough anymore, so that, that gets removed. The 124.67 I would have on because it is the high that we had, uh, 3 pips higher, albeit on, on Thursday. So I'd have that, and then, you know, this area comes more of a zone towards the high from Wednesday. And then you are still looking at the 126, the 200-day moving average as well. It does get that, you know, feeling that we are drifting down. You know, I've got this zone marked up here at 122.65. From the way we finished the week, you've got to imagine that comes in on Monday, but headlines can change. You know, it's Brexit starting to get mentions again and one newspaper headline on a Sunday gaps us higher or lower. So just, uh, just be careful in that. Where would I be, be long now? You know, where would I be late to the party? Above 125.46 for me, I think is good enough. Uh, at the moment, the shorts, I'd be selling on, uh, on pops higher, I would say. Aussie, uh, correlated as we know to the S&P, and, uh, we did have a big down day on the on the Wednesday, and then we came lower as well with a bit of dollar strength on the Friday as well. For me, it's, you know, looking at that, it is choppy, super choppy. 69.33, I'm still having on because we can't get a close above. So maybe when we do, if we do, uh, you know, we get a cleaner move up to those highs from the 17th and 23rd before getting the high of the year. Uh, looks like we're starting to develop a bit of a trend, so worth worth having a look, worth having a look just to see how that holds up for, for sure. And you know, the way it closed, for me, I mean, looking at that and having looked at the euro and the pound, I know which— against the dollar, I know which markets I prefer to be looking at. And I think that's important, you know, when doing your analysis. If it's, you know, bang in the middle of the range, choppy market, there's no need to, to get stuck into that, you when there's other better alternatives. So I'd, I'd be really waiting, you know, looking at this. If you give me a long opportunity down here on the 200-day moving average this high, I'm taking it all day of the week with the current outlook. So yeah, I wouldn't mind that. To, to the upside, you know, it is starting to look like we are just getting squeezed, right? Something like that worth having on. So a break either way could be, could be the play there. So just bear that in mind. If we do break higher or lower from those trend lines, then could get a decent move. Moving on to equities, and I had these on 60-minute. Look at this, an arrow worked, uh, as a trend line. Obviously, absolutely no reason why that would have happened, to be honest. But let's just have a look at the, the daily chart here. Obviously, the futures giving that, uh, that close on the 19th for us to then open— it's 22nd— just a bit weird really, wasn't it? Um, but finishing the lowest we finished or closed since, uh, well, yeah, going back to the 11th. Really. So yeah, we, we're coming to a big area, I have to say, where the Bulls need to defend, need to depend— defend 2963. They really do. Um, that gap, 40-point gap, 40-point gap, maybe if we have some ultra bad developments. Uh, for me it looks, it looks like a good place to get long. I have to say, I have to say. And the last two Mondays have led to some, some dip buying. This, uh, this week, um, was a down week, and that doesn't look too good. But having a look here on, on that weekly time frame, you can see it is a fairly well-respected area. So for me, it's, it's so key, isn't it? It is so key. You know, the bulls need it need it above 2963, uh, and the bears would, would love it below. And if it does get below, I think 2847 comes in before 2760, where I'm still a bit long from. So hopefully we don't have to be doing a Sunday briefing where I'm talking about the market below 2760, because I won't be too happy. Um, but you know, there could well be the opportunity to, to add to this position on developments as well. But it's not a good picture, you know, for, you know, each, each afternoon the, the numbers coming out of Florida, etc., are proving— well, the market reaction is proving there is still jitters around. So we, we're awaiting the next positive equity development for, for the next long, it seems. And, uh, could come in 2963, but watch out for those weekend developments, uh, as if we do end up below, just be cautious in looking to get long straight away. 2904, another area, uh, as is— I would probably have this here now around 2864. And also just these lows of the days. I mean, the key points for me, as I said, 2760 28.64 and 29.63 to the downside. If you want to be late to the party, uh, how about this area here? Fantastic, fantastic resistance. So I'm a buyer above there, or I should say I'm adding to the position above there. Um, in an ideal world, it's something like that. And it's something like that. And then you can de-risk before we then get to those highs. I mean, some at 46, 70 points for, you know, a little trade there, you're taking that every day of the week before you get to that high. Um, hopefully I didn't say high of the year there, but I meant the, the high here, 32, 33. And then, you know, you are thinking about, let's get us to the gap fill, let's get us to the all-time highs. So I think it's set up very nicely. I think it is, uh, 2963 is key. Um, I think there's gonna be a right battle in there. I think there's gonna be a right battle, and I don't think it's one where I'd have a limit order waiting to get long for sure. Um, NASDAQ, um, it's, uh, I was having a look here at the day. Got that trend line coming in, which I'd, like I said, I'd have as a guide. Also got Horizontal line drawn here at 98.18. Trying to work out why I had that on, um, as I haven't looked at this chart since. But I mean, maybe just because of the, the pullback to here, and you can see we hit it, hit it as a good area of support. I guess it's also, you know, this area of 16th of June. I'll go back and watch my video, see why I have it on, but I'm definitely leaving it. It's the low of that, uh, of the Friday, and it's such a key, key level, isn't it? So below— and then looking at this, it's got to be below sort of 97.50, below that area, then you probably get 95.14s coming in, and, and that could well be the next opportunity to get long. I remember saying last week and in previous sessions, like when we've done the live sessions, live webinars. For me, that, you know, just looking at the NASDAQ here, it's— and it's not, you know, the most artistic trend line, trend channel in the world, but we are just going up, down, up, down, up, down. Is this now the opportunity to get stuck in? I mean, looking at the NASDAQ here in the futures, I mean, what an insane market. What an insane market. But as well, just bear in mind that 97.50 would also be below the previous high of the year. We'll also be below that. So yeah, um, I think when there's still these jitters in the market, if you are looking for longs, be late, you know, wait for these support levels to break and then we come back above. You know, that false break is always a lovely, lovely opportunity, I have to say. Now when you get that, okay, Monday we gap lower, market's pushing higher, okay, well actually we then get back above, the sellers aren't interested anymore. And that's what leads to these big pushes that you see here, for example, on the 15th, which was a Monday, and then the, the 22nd was a Monday. These both gapped down on the weekend, remember. The failure to continue that momentum is a great buying opportunity. So yeah, the Dow, I mean, interestingly, the, the Dow is— let's just get the old percentage tool out. Um, to the low, 27%. To the high, 18. Yeah, I mean, I was about to say it's sort of near enough in, in the middle, but obviously not. Um, the S&P and the and the, and the Dow look on paper incredibly appetizing for a long for me. Ah, wow. I mean, but you know, for me saying that, and as you guys know, I'm, I'm bullish. I'm not bullish about, uh, below there. So for the, for the bears, you know, if we can— if we— if you can get us below there, you know, this, this market probably then does drift down towards $24,000. Got some nice support around these lows from the end of May 2022 as well. And, and 23,807 looks good. And, you know, there's, there's certainly opportunity for, for the bears right now to get stuck in. It's not a trend line because you've only got the two tests, but as a guide goes, it's, uh, you know, we are below there, but that's wishy-washy. I wouldn't really look to have that on, um Yeah, I mean, the Sunday close— that's not— the open is going to be very interesting, very interesting to the upside. Um, you know, again, the, the whole idea of a false break is bullish, so just remember that. Um, you got my sort of line in the sand. I'd still have that on, I'd still have that on, but looks to me Just, just get that more on the double top from Friday and Thursday. It looks to me the 200-day moving average is worthwhile here. You can see we had some nice resistance back on the Tuesday, so I'd have it, I'd have it there and use that maybe as a guide. So if you want to be late, for me, above 25,681 as well. But, uh, I think we gap lower on the weekend, um, and then it'll be interesting to see the open. And from a bearish point of view, if you sort of trade the European session on Monday morning, we still, you know, got some, some strong selling pressure. You know, that's a good sign. But really, the European 8 o'clock, 7 o'clock, 6 o'clock is where we, we've, we've been pushing higher from there. So that wouldn't be what you want to see, but a down week for equities last week nonetheless. Gold It's— oh, hello! Hit this, uh, look at that, lovely. Hit the trend line. This was— yes, yesterday. I remember we've got our summer interns at the moment and they've just, uh, they finished yesterday. And there's a trader who, uh, went long near the low— well, near, I think, near enough, probably off this level, probably the 23rd, and got stopped to the tick. And a trading competition. The lowest point yesterday, which was, uh, hard to see where it's now gone. Uh, but yeah, that trend line, you got to have that on now, aren't you? And also this area, these lows. And if you draw a horizontal line, it's not far away from being on the low of the 22nd as well. And then we get the classic— yes, they're above these highs. Wow. I mean, gold, they're fantastically well respected, these levels. That are marked up. So still have— I'd still have all of these on. A close below the trend line is bearish. We're now above $1,778, and it seems $1,800 is, is going to be the magnet. I guess we've just got to get through $1,790, but I mean, $10 between, between gold trends is nothing, is it? So yeah, you've got to imagine that that comes in. When would I be sort of going back on my bullish gold um, call just then. And it's not impressive call if we get any 100, by the way, is it? Um, but if we can get below that trend line, you know, then I'd be sort of panicking a bit. But it is the right conditions for gold. However, let's put it on the daily. You know, we're just hitting the top of the range, right? What's to stop it then coming all the way back down? You know, people here would have said 1800 is coming in, 1800 is coming in, 1800 is coming in. Right, well, until it does, you know, that's, uh, it's not, not, not correct. But I, I think we get it next week, uh, below the trend line. I think we then get the bottom of the range though. So looking at that, you know, it's, uh, it's, it's a key guide. And that's what technical analysis can be great for, you know, just telling you when your idea is wrong, especially if it's an area that's been well respected. Oil, um Hits, uh, filled the gap, didn't it, on the futures. Fantastic opportunity to, to get short. People did get short, and, and now the momentum, I would say, is, is with the, the bears. However, let's just remove the old trend lines. You can see these lows have acted as a good support. You could— you would just say, you know, below 3704, 34.86, 3106, still the key point. I mean, I wouldn't change anything on this. We're just in between the 41 and 37, and I remember saying last week it's a big range, but it, you know, have that on, have that on a daily close below 37. I think, like I said, you know, we get down to 34.50, and then below that, bottom of it. I mean, I mean, looks really nice, doesn't it? Really technical. Look at these resistance, get close above, great opportunity there. Now we could have a couple opportunities here. Get above these resistance, great area of support. I mean, if you wanted to get in a long, I'd rather, you know, buy lower down rather than higher up for now. But we'll see, we'll see. Uh, the DAX, choppy, very choppy. Um, I probably have to now remove this this zone. I mean, not surprising it was choppy around there, was it? Yeah, I still have this on these levels from the downside. A close above 12,487 is massive. That would be absolutely massive. And if we do get a close there, then I think we get the high that we had in, in June. And then really it's, uh, you know, another test of this area, and it could be off to the all-time high races. But we could be talking in a couple of months and, and that is the, the highest we, we were. So equity markets are nicely set, they're all coming into just fantastic areas of support. Let's just re-go back to the S&P. These circles here, the NASDAQ previous all-time high, bottom of the trend channel. Dow Jones previous resistance turned support. DAX same here. Technically, you know, this is the opportunity we wanted. You know, stick to your risk management, uh, wait for your, your triggers to, to get into these markets. But you know, it's a very key, key, key level for the bulls. But that's great for, for the bears. They want to see that and they want to see it go and then get your trigger for the sell and you can ride this. So if you're still short You know, I would have de-risked for sure before the weekend, at least a bit. But if we can get— if you can get below here, this market probably could, uh, could fly a bit. Um, but like I said, guys, this is a Saturday, uh, it's just gone half 12, so headlines will be dropping, I'm sure, over the, the next 36 hours. So just bear that in mind when watching it. But I hope you all have a good Sunday evening and this is when you'll be watching the video, uh, and a great week ahead. And I look forward to catching up with you all in the chat. Thank you guys, take care.