Weekly Trading Set-ups 6th - 10th July 2020

Hi guys, good afternoon, happy Sunday. I hope you've all had a nice weekend. Uh, happy Fourth of July, Independence Day, to those in the US. And also happy opening of the pubs in the UK. Hope you've all enjoyed yourselves, uh, for those that went. Um, we'll go through the charts as normal, one by one, um, going through some of the levels from last week, how they reacted. And some new ones for the week ahead. Obviously, with Friday being a bank holiday in the States, of course, for the futures market, you won't see any price action for that day. So effectively, it's been a long weekend, and how that acts out, we'll find out on the, on the open on, on, uh, well, this evening. Of course, the last 3 Sundays have had a gap lower, which was quickly reversed, of course, but uh, yeah, we'll have a, have a little run through, starting off as usual with the euro. Um, and that low that we had from a couple of Mondays ago, still very much intact. Let me just remove these arrows. So yeah, still very much intact. The, the bulls for me are in control as long as we're above there. Um, and you can see we are, so at the moment I think it's worthwhile just sort of pointing that out, that for a decent move lower, we really do need to get ourselves below these, these two lines that I've marked up. Um, the, the sort of the, the line in the sand, if you like, which you can see I've had marked up here. Quite interestingly, I think, and I'm just going to remove it, we, we couldn't get any closes above there, you know, going back since we, we broke through on the 25th. Of June. You can see we had a couple of goes last week but no close above there, which is for me quite interesting. Of course, we're into a new quarter, into a new month, uh, which sort of led to some erratic price action, shall we say, last, uh, last week, or the beginning of last week. But, but now it's almost like, you know, business, um, can, can resume as normal. So I'll be looking for some cleaner moves, uh, to come So for the euro, for the bulls, this is the— still the point that is needed to defend. Uh, I guess you could, you, you could argue that the, the bears can really only get excited, uh, below the 1.1160, because obviously what could happen is that we do push lower and that just, you know, is still in control of the bulls, and, and we push, uh, push up from this point. So I think we, we, you know, having a look at this, yeah, below 1.1160, uh, is how I'd be looking at the euro. So to the upside, well, you know, you've got these, these highs. So to, to get, you know, from a horizontal point of view, just terms of the, the key resistance levels, obviously we've still got this one up here, we've got this trend line that comes down. But, uh, yeah, in between here, it's a tricky one because it's likely to get quite messy. However, for like a daily sort of guide level, I would have this one on, which was the, the high of the pullback after we broke lower on the 26th. So yeah, that for me is, is worthwhile having on. 1.1280, uh, is that level. So no close above there. So a close above would be significant enough for me to kind of like, uh, a move to the upside. But it's like the, uh, the Aussie in a way, isn't it? In that it's been compact really for a number of weeks. It's almost waiting for a bigger move to happen. Uh, might be worth having a just a quick look to see from these highs have we got a trend line coming down. Let's have a quick look. There you go, it's not too bad, not too bad. I keep that on along with that high, especially if we were to get that early in the week, it may well coincide with that trend. Uh, but yeah, those would be the points to the upside. To the downside, uh, you know, it's— I guess the thing to do is, is make this more of a sort of a demand zone. And as long as we don't close below that, then I'd say the, the bulls can, can still be in control of this overall. Ultimately, if we were to move lower for a period of time, I think, you know, this certainly still looks like a very good place to get long again. Uh, but we've been, we've been compressed, haven't we, over the last couple of weeks. Not really, not too much has happened. Uh, but like I was saying, new quarter, new month, you know, let's, uh, let's hopefully see some cleaner moves. For the pound, um, decent, decent couple of days, uh, followed after we, we couldn't push lower on the 29th. So the 30th, which of course was Thursday, a bit of, you know, month-end flow. Uh, people were, uh, on Tuesday, sorry, it was a bit of month-end flow, uh, and where we pushed on and a bit of risk on as well, and seeing stocks did push higher into the back end of the week, uh, as well. Um, so areas to be aware of, certainly, you know, you've got to be marking up this 125.46, which capped price action on the Thursday. I mean, how we finished on, on Thursday, uh, was, you know, would I— I would say look relatively bearish for a reversal. But Friday, you know, there was hardly any volume in the market, so, uh, yeah, not too much going on there. So having a look at this now, I, I would obviously mark up the, the key low, you know, that's been very important. And if you remember from last week's video, or if you ever watch the, the midday ones I do on Amplify Live, it just came back down to the most important level for pound that I've been on about, is this area here. We broke above it, came back down, then we broke and actually closed, and it offered an area of support for the push higher, and we just came back down to it, to it there. So yeah, you know, if you want to see how important, uh, that technical level is, there you go. Uh, so to the upside, 125.46, give or take a couple of pips either way. Resisting any move to the upside, and then, uh, 2265, uh, to the downside. Uh, bit of big— quite a big range, admittedly, you know, 300, uh, you know, pips. But putting this on to sort of 60-minute, just having a look at some other areas of interest. Let's just have a quick look. Yeah, I mean, it actually, you know, led to a pretty good push, didn't it, even after that Thursday on the 1st. I'm just wondering whether you probably want to have this area here. Now you can see was the low that we had back on the 25th, bro, closed above, offered a half decent level. I would have it as a bit of a guide, and also it matches up quite nicely with the sort of midpoint. So, you know, can we say we're bullish, uh, as long as we, you know, find support here and stay above, bearish below, and obviously then be aware of this key level. And the levels we marked up last week, and most notably these lows. Whereas if this turns to support and we push higher and get above the what is now of course a double top, then really we could be looking back towards that 200-day moving average again, which has been pretty good and worthwhile having on, uh, there for the pound. Um, bit of Brexit talk starting to come into, you know, the headlines a bit more. As well, but also it is still correlated quite heavily with, um, with risk. So obviously if we were to have a positive week for stocks, then likelihood is you're going to see the pound follow suit. Where any risk-off, just be aware that this can change and turn. And to be honest, you know, it's actually been probably the nicest currency in my opinion to have traded recently. The euro, you know, pretty messy along with the pound. Along with the Aussie dollar, I should say. But the, the pound has traded quite nice, respected levels well, and you're getting decent moves, uh, that at least lasting for a bit. Uh, moving on to the Aussie, we got a little break, didn't we? We had this, uh, trend line from the top coming in, got a little spike above. We then found support. I guess if you were to zoom in, you probably did get a nice close and it acts as support again, and we're pushing to the upside. So now we remove 6933, uh, and then yeah, just have this double top that we're looking at towards 6982. Above there, obviously you have the higher, the 11th, which you're probably worth marking up because it comes in on the handle, the 70 handle. But above there, then we're looking towards the high, uh, that we made of course on the 10th. If it is a false break, uh, where do I believe that to be? 68.98, I think, is as good as any, you know, back below here. But of course, this retest of the trend could well come, of course, lower down than that as well. So just bear that in mind. And also the trend line that we got coming up, so that's going to be, if we are to have a move lower, quite a key point that'll be worth, be worth, uh, marking up. But has much happened in that other than that little break? No, not really. So the pound has been easier, the euro still contained. Have we now got a bit of a break here and we can continue higher? Last week's finish would suggest that is going to happen from, from just sort of looking at this. However, we're effectively a spike away from coming into very key resistance, so just be aware of that if you are long. You know, this is a good level where I would say take profit and then your next target is that high that we've got from the 10th, uh, which of course is the high of the year as well. Just making sure it was. Um, yeah, and then obviously if it— any more on, it could run through. However, you know, stocks, I would say it's a tricky one, isn't it? Because, you know, you've got this trend line which would act as support, you've got this level here, and, um, it might well be in that the risk reward is skewed a bit. So yeah, I, I'd say if I were looking for a long, I'd be happy as long as it is above this trend line that comes from those lows. Um, yeah, we talked last week about how the 200-day moving average would be a nice place to get long. Um, that hasn't come, come through yet, but certainly one to, you know, maybe make a note on and just sort of say, you know, if we we do get near it. It's acted very well as a support or resistance, um, recently. So yeah, let's still have that on. Moving on to, to stocks, uh, good recovery again last week. The bears can't really, really catch up, um, catch it, can they, at the moment. But you know, not to say the bulls have taken this away, you know, it's probably clear this up a bit. Yeah, you can see the resistance here from the 23rd is good. Obviously looks slightly different than how we probably like on the futures, obviously, once that rollover took place. But we still got, you know, key resistance up here, which you're going to have on. Obviously now just moving that to there, you've got these highs that we couldn't get through, so definitely looking to have that on, uh, as well. Then to the downsides, you've got the previous high, which has acted as a really good opportunity to have got long a couple of times. And, and, you know, this time I did it on the Saturday, but basically 7 days ago I was talking about how we are just coming back into, you know, really nice area in equities to get long from a technical point of view. We found support, we filled the gap from the Sunday close, and we did push higher. Uh, does that last? You know, we have to wait and see, of course, but I'd still be a buyer in this market if we can get any, any, uh, sort of pullbacks. I added a bit to my long, as you know. I'm down here, um, and I just, you know, not a massive trade at all, but de-risked ahead of, um, ahead of the, the bank holiday before non-farm payrolls on the, uh, sort of the high that we had here. I mean, in hindsight, it looks great. But, um, you know, we could easily smash through that. So the way I'd be looking for that is a close above here, nice sort of pullback, you know, something like from there, and then looking for that high that we had back in the beginning of June. To the downside, when would I be a bit worried that actually we start to see 2976 again? Probably when we get a close below 3083. That would be enough that I'd say, okay, maybe we're just gonna start this you know, rotation around to these lows again. However, of course, all of these lows from the 1st, the 30th, um, as well could act as support points for that, that rally to continue to the upside. I say rally, uh, push that we've had in, in recent times. So yeah, that's, that's really how I'd play it. Targets to the upside, you know, you've got these previous tops from the 16th Obviously people will be looking at the futures higher than 19th, but as I said, we had that rollover, so it looks slightly different. Can we get a great week and get above this high? Probably not, but if that is to happen, just as we've said in previous ones, let's start marking these areas up. Uh, as we saw on the NASDAQ not long ago, they really do act as great targets, great resistance levels, albeit momentarily, but why take that risk? Great places to de-risk. Um, also you might have seen on the news Kanye West is, is saying he's going to run for, uh, the presidency. Probably more of a plea, or a plan I should say, to, to take votes away from, from Biden, if anything, and the attention away. But, uh, 2020, right? Uh, but yeah, that's, that's how I would go with the S&P really. You know, I'm bullish still above 3083. I mean, overall As long as we stay above 2976, I am. But maybe for the week as it goes, you know, this is a good line in the sand, uh, that I would hold on there. NASDAQ made new all-time highs, closing all-time high as well. So, um, no surprise there. We're still in this trend channel as a bit of a guide that I would have. As you know, we, uh, last week we did exactly what, uh, we were saying and coming back to these previous highs. Technically, what a level to get long, and it was Uh, and it has been for quite some time, just following this trend line as well. So yeah, great opportunity for those that got in. Uh, and also, you know, we hit the high, we find some resistance there, great place to de-risk. And if it goes, fantastic. Uh, now begs the question, let's just remove those arrows after that worked pretty well. You would just be saying, you know, where is the next dip? I would say this is too early on the, the previous all-time high. Personally, I think you'd want it a bit lower. Line in the sand for me, you probably have about 10,000— 10,000 NASDAQ sounds mad, doesn't it? Uh, just above these highs here, you'd be happy to stay long. Uh, but I think if it does break there, and that's similar to the, the S&P line in the sand I've got, 3083, you know, I'd just say, uh, if you're— if you are long, if you're managing a position you know, I'd be happy to stay long above that. However, I think the break below there just gives another opportunity on this trend as well. If you, if you're bearish, uh, below that trend's not a bad, bad one to sort of get the added confirmation that you might want, because at the moment it's, you know, try piece together two down days in a row on the NASDAQ and the futures. You haven't had that since 13th and 12th of May, which is incredible to think about. Dow Jones, uh, yeah, it did what the NASDAQ did, it did what the DAX did, it did what the S&P did. It come down to previous area which offered resistance to support and led to that next move, uh, as well. So yeah, it's, uh, nice to see the markets behaving themselves. Giving opportunities to both buyers and sellers, because obviously for these levels to work, a part of that is going to come from people taking profit. Um, relatively quiet into the week though, it has to be said, for equities with it being a 4-day week. Uh, looks quite messy now for me. The Dow, personally, it's, uh, from, um, you know, getting in for maybe a couple of days, 3, 4, or 5 days at a time S&P and NASDAQ have certainly felt a lot clearer. Um, but was this the opportunity to get long on those lows? Potentially was, wasn't it? Uh, to the upside, obviously we got the 200-day moving average. I'd say worth keeping an eye on. Uh, however, the main target here I think people will be looking at will be the high that we had back on the 16th, just below the 27,000 mark. Um, moving that I don't know, I, I don't really want to spend too much time looking at the Dow. Really choppy around here. I think lower time frames it could be, you know, slightly clearer, but with those lower time frame, you know, uh, charts, you're looking at lower time frame levels. So I don't know, I think we— I don't know, I just— like I said, looking at the S&P and NASDAQ are clearer. Uh, would I— I'd say we drift higher. And the line, I, I mean, looking at this, I don't really have a line in the sand that would give me a guide. Obviously the S&P in there is like, uh, you know, a bit, uh, clearer for me. Trend line on there, probably not worth having on. So yeah, I mean, for, for the Dow, if I wasn't in a position, which I'm not, I'm only really interested when it comes to here or there really. I mean, you could call of course, and lower it down and say we haven't finished below here in, you know, 3 days. We broke above it, turned to a great area of support for a push higher. It's worthwhile, I guess, having that on. We found relatively good price action away, but you can see I'm reaching really for, for the Dow here. So yeah, maybe not, not worth, um, yeah, too much attention in my opinion anyway. Gold, uh, we did get 1,800, didn't we? We did get 1,800 last week. We got the push above, came back for support. I mean, I was talking about this with the guys last week, end of last week. Um, one second, I think I've just been logged, logged off there unfortunately. So I'm gonna wrap it there, um, rather than spend, uh, time sort of logging in again. I think Anthony's about to do the macro menu, uh, but I will, uh, put a couple of charts up for gold and the DAX. I only had those two left, so no, no problems there. But yeah, I was saying, of gold, there's a really nice level in there. That was a good line in the sand for me, for whether it be bullish or bearish. And how it finished— bearish— uh, bullish, sorry— enough for me above there. Um, but yeah, hope you guys all have a great week, and, uh, yeah, I'll catch you all later on. We're doing a webinar, I think, this Wednesday actually, so keep a lookout for that. But yeah, hope you have a good few days ahead and hope the weekend was good and you're all rested and recovered and ready. Take care, guys.