Weekly Trading Set-ups 8th-12th June 2020

Hi guys, welcome back to another weekly trade setups video. I hope you all had a great week and even better weekend. For those that have been peacefully protesting like myself this weekend, I just want you to know that everyone here at Amplify stands with you. And in some crazy way, it seems that 2020 could just be the year that, that wakes us up. It's you know, started off incredibly bad and it's still, you know, full of bad things that are happening, but we're starting to see a change and I think that's great to see, you know, people really coming together. So yeah, everyone here at Amplify, we stand with you. Moving on to less important things, we'll go about it the same way we did last weekend, and we will have a look at the charts, how we finish the week, review that, uh, and then move on to some new levels that may have appeared and areas to be aware of. And then also I did an Instagram story not long ago, uh, just asking you guys about how, uh, or what markets you may want me to look at. So I'll go over a few of those. So I've got a different platform up as well which we'll have a look at those, um, which aren't, uh, ones that we trade predominantly here at Amplify. So yeah, moving on to the euro, um, you know, like I said last weekend, I want to leave the levels on and we review. However, I've clearly gone on this at the end of that last video, just talked about the monthly trend line, so removed unfortunately the daily levels. However, you can see we broke that monthly trend line, so let's just put it onto, uh, the daily chart here. We might click on that daily chart and you can see just the reaction around that trend was quite nice. You know, we broke through, we came back, found support. Um, but yeah, in terms of review— reviewing it, um, we'll almost have to start from scratch unfortunately on this one. So I'll remember to leave those lines on for this time next week. Uh, the pound, um, so where was the the 1st of June. So we, yeah, we, we closed obviously just before this 123.83. A fantastic Monday, really was, wasn't it? And you know what, I think I was saying this, this time last week how, you know, we're in that area where the bulls need us above. The bears, I'd only be really interested below the trend line. Great Monday, close above this line that we had marked, marked up, drawn here, uh, 124.67. Lovely push to the next area. You know, it's the next point people will be looking at, the 200-day moving average. Let me just check, it is the 200-day. Yeah, you can see it was tested. Look at that, finished right on it, right on it. I mean, if you're, if you're bearish, you got safe. You're bullish, you're thinking, oh, we got to close above our two areas here on April and Uh, well, April, and, uh, we just couldn't quite get above there. We tested also, incredibly importantly, this, this previous low here. So, you know, for a while I've been saying we're going to get $127, and okay, we've got it, but that's not with a couple of, you know, pushes lower. It feels, it feels like this is a great place to take profit of your longs, guys. It really, really does. You got the, the Fed on Wednesday, as we know, I'll sort of come back to that in a bit, but the jobs numbers were really good on Friday, really good. I mean, when I heard that squawk, me and Anthony were doing a live session for our traders, uh, and those that are on Amplify Live as well, so our, our community, and it came in as 2.5 million. I was thinking, did they forget to say minus, the guys at Newsquawk? Obviously they didn't. Um, but yeah, so really good. So it'll be interesting to see what Powell says on Wednesday. Um, notoriously the Monday, Tuesday after Nonfarm Payroll was quite quiet, people pre-positioning ahead of the Fed as well. Wednesday, I'm not expecting fireworks in those first couple of days. Even more reason to maybe unwind. But yeah, the pound, you can see, reacted really well to the levels we had marked up. Aussie dollar, let's have a look. I mean, we, you know, one of the things I was clearly looking at here was, you know, can we get a break and retest above that level. And there was retests on the 1st of June, but I mean, look at that, it's flown, flown through it. Um, really, you know, strong push here. Uh, and it's, it's another one we were saying you don't want to be sure, really. You don't want to be sure unless we break support on these markets. Be late, be late to the party, you know. Don't go chasing, you know. Love a, you know, trend line here that held up play. I mean, uh, if we had maybe close the day below, say, 6613, then it's a different story. We can look to sell. You know, you've got these failed tests here, but yeah, decent push. And we'll have a little look over some new levels there. The S&P, uh, where's the 1st of June? It's here, isn't it? So we pushed higher into our level where we would expect some resistance. We found some there before breaking through on Friday. And look, here, right on that, that area I've marked up. That's a massive, massive area, isn't it? And again, speaking on the pound and the euro and the Aussie, why not take some profit here? That's exactly how I would be looking at it. Unfortunately for my trade, I've only got 1 lot left on. If I had 2, it's 100% being taken here, uh, especially with the, with, with the Fed coming Wednesday, you know, pretty I'd take it there. Then the NASDAQ, uh, look at that, new all-time high. How do our levels get on? Where's the 1st of June? There. So we get that push, decent close above, offers a bit of support, doesn't it, before pushing on. I mean, yeah, a nice little push. Uh, again, you're long NASDAQ. You know, last time we were at the all-time high, we came all the way down. Is it going to happen again? Probably not. Could it? Potentially. Anything can happen in the markets. Got the Fed in 3 days. Let's take a bit of profit. The Dow, lovely, uh, push. I've got to say, don't have any lines on here. Uh, strong reaction to the 200-day moving average, strong reaction to our level here on the 6th of March. Decent push on closing above these, these points. Pretty key, you have to say. That is pretty key. Where's the next level? Okay, you've got the low now of of the 3rd of December where Trump said there's going to be no trade deal before the election, before changing his mind 2 days later. But we'll come back to the, the Dow and do some levels on that. Gold couldn't get, uh, back above this trend line that we had on. Where's the first— so yeah, I mean, obviously with that risk on, big push down, and obviously we'll then be looking at some of these levels now. I don't mind a long run of 1660, to be honest. But again, it's, it's, you know, from, from gold from being a medium position, medium term, you've got to get long this market, we're now thinking about, hang on, those job numbers were good, hence the risk-on we got rather than dollar strength. But if the Fed are in any way hawkish, I mean, that dollar strength is gonna send gold a lot lower. So yeah, is it a long right now? I think we'll know more on Wednesday. Um, oil, uh, headlines over the weekend. OPEC+ group decided yesterday on Saturday to extend those output limits at almost the same level through July instead of tapering them as planned at the end of June. So are we gonna have a little gap in oil? Potentially, potentially I'll check Twitter later, which is really good, you know. And if you haven't watched Anthony's video on Twitter, it's somewhere below here if you're looking. But it can be fantastic Sunday evening. Twitter's great if you're looking at the right places. Of course, there's a lot of negativity on there at the moment, but it's, you know, good to get a feel for what people are expecting. and I'll be looking to see whether there's going to be a gap higher in oil or not. Uh, I still stand by— we get to 41, I say the same every week, and I don't trade oil that much at all intraday, um, but it feels magnetically drawn towards this level. We broke above our 11th of March high. You break above, come down, support, 1, 2, get that push, Do we hit 4102? Do people then take profit? Do we then come lower? We'll have to wait and see. Let's have a look at some of those levels later. Silver pushed on. I was saying I was bullish silver from the start of the video— not the start of the video, the start of the talk about silver— up to this area. I mean, that's technical analysis for you there. I know you had the risk on into the back end of the week, but you've got to feel if we could have got a close above there, this market could have pushed on. It didn't. We found resistance. We then broke back below our previous— what is then going to be support— and we pushed lower. And this is what I'm saying about the euro, about the Aussie, about the pound, about the S&P. Be late. You don't need to be a hero and sell up here. How about you sell when the buyers are no longer in control? At this moment here, you've got to say, if we come back down— and look at that reaction. The buyers do take over from that point. So if it goes, sellers come in, and that's what happens. Look, caps in hindsight here is speaking, and it's easy to say that, but the amount of times you see when these levels go, that's when you get that push. The DAX, I didn't have many levels drawn on by the looks of it. Above the 200-day moving average, looks like this area might come in. Let's have a quick look. Oh, what a, what a level! What a level! I mean, here you— I mean, let's go back to the S&P quickly. Look at that, look at that, bang on here. I think the Dow was also almost at some great resistance there, and the DAX. I mean, 3 days before a central bank meeting where you just had incredibly surprisingly good job numbers. I don't know if you'd want to be adding to a position above, uh, right now. Above those levels, fine, just be aware of Wednesday. Um, let's have a quick look at the new levels then. Let's have a quick look. I don't want to keep you too long. What we've done, 10 minutes. Okay, let's try to speed through some of these. So the Euro daily chart, let's just remove the, the points. You know, I like doing this by now. It's just a good way to start with that blank canvas and being aware of, you know, any new levels that I need to be— I need to have on, uh, resistance above where we're trading. Oh, got these couple highs. I'd be surprised if we get that this week, to be honest. I was saying to, um, our traders on Friday about this level which we hit, of course. Great, fine, great place to take profit. We then get the false break, and I'll send— if we close below here, you've had a massive rejection of all of this area. So technically I'm bearish the euro of the first of this week. Wednesday changes everything, Wednesday evening Fed, um, and hopefully we can cover that live actually for you guys, um, so watch this space. But yeah, uh you know, line in the sand. We've got a great level up here, the— these two highs. So below where we're trading, where do the, uh, the bears need to get us below? This is a good point here. You've got the high from the 3rd of June, was also a good level back in March. So yeah, below here, then you'd be looking for, for price to come to this point, uh, and, and you've got quite a lot of highs from here before it could break down and, and you get down to this point. I don't think we get anywhere near the 110 handle. But just be aware of how important this area is as a support point, and how if the Fed are potentially going to be, uh, you know, dovish, continue to be, you know, this is an area where people will be looking to get long back up towards those highs. Um, if we have a move like we did last week, we break above that 115 And you're looking at some of these highs going back to the sort of March time, uh, March and January, uh, 2019. I was gonna say this year, March and, uh, January last year. So just bear that in mind. Um, I want to leave the levels on, don't I? I'm just gonna get a new euro chart up here just for the month, and let's just have a look at that trend channel. Obviously we broke, broke it. We, we had already broken it, of course. But look at this here, probably worth having this on, uh, one test, two. What happens on that third? Let's get a little horizontal line. If that comes, it's not far off being those highs. Maybe wishful thinking, but big area, isn't it, if we can get there? Uh, also on the month, um, Big point here. We've got a few weeks left of this month as well, but yeah, the bears need to take control. And this is— I think it's a good week, it's a good finish for the bears on Friday despite getting battered throughout the, the week. Uh, the pound— do I need to take any of these levels off? Let's get rid of the arrows. Let's get rid of the arrows. 200-day moving average key. Um, 200-day moving average, key rejection of this massive, uh, where would I be a seller? Uh, potentially on a daily close below these highs. I think that could be quite nice. Also, how about this high here? We, once we broke above, we couldn't close below. So this could be a new point just to consider, you know, the short back towards these highs here. All points where the buyers will want to come in above new levels to put on here, the low of the 11th of March, and then obviously mark up the 12th. Um, I'll be surprised if we get up there, but just, just those lows, lows and highs of these, these days around here. Massive resistance though from what was support. So yeah, look, great place to take profit, you know. Look at this from the 27th. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 trading days, one of them red. One of them red. I'd be surprised if we push on. Likewise, I mean, look at that in the euro. Um, new levels in the Aussie. Uh, where would I be a seller? This looks to me like a nice point, good support. I mean, I remember this really nice short back in, uh, in January. I got in on that down to, to these lows. Shoulda, coulda, woulda. Uh, but yeah, below here, good support when we broke through. Market's respecting it. Um, I'm having that on. I'm definitely having that on. So I know it's a long way below where we're trading, but be late, be late to the party. I had a little trend line on here. Was it worth having on? Doesn't look like we respected it, to be honest. I'd remove that. Not worth having on. That was another, you know, test. Is it going to be a trend line? It wasn't, so forget it. Um, if we have a risk-on week, Aussie will push on most likely. Um, you can see 3 rejections of the Wednesday high. Uh, surprising it didn't maybe go and test that, just 31st of December, uh, high. Where are we on the year? Pretty much where we opened. Interesting. Um, on that, what a recovery. And one of the, one of the markets you guys want me to go over is pound against the Aussie, so I'll do that in a moment. Uh, but yeah, those would be the levels for the Aussie. I'm conscious of time, so I'm just going to skip through, uh, these relatively quick. Uh, let's get rid of those lines on the S&P. I think the way the S&P has traded over the last end of April, since end of April, has been fantastic. I really, really do. Uh, new levels to the upside, just the high that I would have on, uh, 25th of Feb, and then we've got those points from last week already. Um, I properly also have a nice one in here, uh, which we broke through last week, but I don't know if I would change anything. Where would I be a seller? Um, And it would be very short-term being a seller. I think we go all-time highs, as you know. But below this point here, you've got to say the, uh, the bulls won't be happy. When was the last Fed meeting? 12th of May. What happened on the 12th of May? We pushed up into it, we come lower. Um, do a little bit of backtesting, guys, as well. Look at the last, you know, 24 months worth of Fed meetings. A lot of them disappoint a bit and we come lower. So that's what I am expecting here. I think we do come back down. I would love to load up here. I would love it. I really, really would. Um, I don't think we're going to get the chance. Big move to back lower to there, isn't it? NASDAQ all-time highs, um, closed below all of that, closed below this point here, the high that we had on the, the 26th of May. We can see we— once we broke through, failed test, failed test, to close below, that would be key. So 96.18, big line in the sand, big line in the sand that the bears will want to break, the bulls want to hold. And then we can start looking at maybe some trend lines from these lows, you know. Is anything here gonna, gonna mark up? Is anything here worth having on? Do we get a third test? That kind of thing, um, to bear in mind. But those lines that I've got marked up here, I'd still, still have those on the Dow. We've got our new key level. It takes something to get through there. Big area here now above 24th of Feb, even bigger with these lows, makes a zone, makes a very strong resistance level. We're above the 200-day moving average, which the Dow respects, so bear that in mind. If you're bearish, you want it below there. If you want to be I would say super cautious. I'd be a seller below 25.0— 25.809, back down towards this point here. We never got the retest of this mark, uh, of this zone that we broke, did we? Pushed on, we didn't get the retest of these. So just bear that in mind if you're getting, you know, some big moves lower. Um, the bulls, you know, are still in control of these areas, in my opinion. So just don't go aggressive, be patient, sell underneath or buy above. Um, gold, uh, keeping those lines on, we've just got to be aware of areas below where we're trading and start picking out some of these. You asked me, you know, a few weeks ago— and let's just remove everything, that trend line for me now is invalid— but We are range-bound, and you've got to, you've got to love a, a long here, haven't you? Got to. A little false break on that if you, if you want to be patient. Maybe after Wednesday, maybe after Wednesday could be the opportunity there. Another area to be, uh, late on is if we can get back above these, these bottoms here to to get the long on a break retest go, or, you know, the price action on the day. Big zone— I don't want to remove that rectangle, let's get a new one in here. Big zone here, these lows, those highs, and then up to towards here as well. And then this point on, just get these lines drawn on because of course we want to review next week. Um, that's how I'd be looking at below here. This market for me goes down and tests these two highs. And, and that would be great value for a long, but, uh, not too good for medium-term bulls. Oil, let's have a look, let's see what happens. For me, this is such a big area. I mean, maybe it spikes on the day to, to here, $43.24. Um, maximum next week, 5th of March, that high. These are big levels, aren't they? If you're bearish, for me, you're a seller under here, under 3629, but just because of the importance of it— resistance, okay? People taking profits, push through, come back, support, push on, okay? Where are my stops? Below 3629. Where's the short come in? Below 3629 would be the way to look at it, in my opinion. Silver, let's wait and see. Same as gold, big level up to the, to the upside. Buyers can come back in above 18.19. A lot of support around here. If that level goes, I think we get 16.53 and a half quick. Interesting, interesting, interesting. Is that a little bit of a trend line on these lows? Yeah, good. Get that little break of that, you, you wouldn't want to— you want to be long, would you? Um, little longs above these lows potentially. You can see support, support, support, break above 1781, could be a long. I'd prefer to be late and get in 1819. The DAX, I mean, recovery amazing, looks like US equities. However, find me a bigger, bigger level in the DAX this week. Wow, wow, wow, wow. Look, on these equities, you know, you know, I'm bullish overall and we get all-time highs in all of them. That we've gone through so far in this year again. Um, in my opinion, that could change next week. It may be a silly thing to say at the moment. I mean, I'm still bullish. However, first couple of days this week and Wednesday, I'm not looking to, to add to positions. However, after Wednesday with the Fed, we close above this area in the DAX, it is going to push on. You know, then you're sort of thinking about these highs. You're thinking about that gap fill, the importance of this zone here, and then it is all-time highs, which is insane to think about, but it's the reality right now. If you're short, uh, just be aware of these previous highs. You know, you probably want to be short— I would say below there, below our 200-day moving average. You know, it's, uh, it led to another push was good support here. Choppy, yes, in the August time, but look how good it has been. You've got to, got to admire, uh, the patience here if you do get in. And I think it would reward a good trade back towards, you know, some of these levels on here. So short below 200-day moving average and the areas back in the beginning of March, I think it's not a bad trade to have. Moving on Okay, 23 minutes, so we've got a couple to go through. My phone unfortunately is on the, the other side of the room, so there was a couple of, uh, other than the markets we've already gone through, a couple of charts that you guys wanted to, to have a little look over. So let me just drag, drag it. Yeah, here we go. Sorry, that's taken me a while there. Okay, you can see that. Yeah, you can. Um, one of them was the FTSE, was the FTSE. Let's have a little look on the day. Strong push. Um, we filled the, the gap, uh, last week. Important because I've got a little bit of a bearish, um, outlook. I'm a short below, you know, this area here, those highs, back down to here. Not bad. I like her. I like her long. I like a long if we can come back to this point. Again, I'm waiting for Wednesday. You're probably sick and tired of me saying Wednesday by now. Uh, levels to the upside here, look at that, 1, 2, push through. That's big, that is big. And if that goes, then you really are looking up to these highs. It's playing catch-up, isn't it? Now if the pound weakens as well and then we get some risk on, I like this a bit more. Um, worth just bearing in mind those levels to the upside. I don't think we could get much above there, but at some point we are going to be looking at these lows here. There's still a grind, you know what, I think just looking at this— and I don't look at the FTSE much, but I will be— I'll be having a little load up on a long soon, to be honest. I mean, if we can get back to this area, get some bullish price action, long, stop below this potential trend and these lows. I mean, that could be a great trade. Target in here, target in here. I like it. Obviously, you know, de-risk here, there, and then if you've got a final bit on, why not get up to those highs as well around here? Really like that, really like that. I'll be looking at that, I'll be looking at that. The other one was pound aussie. Um, Aussie strength has been phenomenal. The pound against the dollar has been very good. Are we due a little recovery? Be late is how I would say if you're looking for longs. Um, if you're looking for longs here, you've got a lot of these lows, haven't you, in the mix? I don't know, it's, it's a tricky one because it's come down so much. I mean the area we've just found support on. If you're, if you're a little aggressive, it is a great place to get long. One rejection, two rejection, three. Yeah, I mean, the risk reward isn't too bad. You, you de-risk there, you then would, you know, de-risk on these lows. And if it gets above here— this is me saying that be late— this is when I think you could get, you know, a bigger push on. To be honest, and be looking at some of these highs around here. You know, if you're, you know, longer term happy with, with being long the pound, you know, we're at levels, uh, last trade in October last year. Can we come back lower? Of course we can, but, uh, not below last week's lows. You know, if you're short, these points are all key for retest back Um, and if we close the day below the, uh, this area here where the mouse is, you'd be looking at levels last traded September last year and a lot of support around there. So yeah, I mean, look, if I was long, I'd be happy. Stop below here, target up there. It's a good— what's that? Let's call it 3 to 1, 4 to 1 up to this target. Uh, if you're short, hopefully you book profit because this is, you know, not what you want to see. Uh, but let's have a look at what's happened previously. Support, support, support, support on what was a key level, and then you get that breakthrough retest. Wow, what a trade! What a trade! Anyone take that, uh, 2nd of June? That's a phenomenal entry, that, isn't it? Support, support, breakthrough, come back. Aussie still going well, risk on. Wow, trade down to here. Shoulda, coulda, woulda. Shoulda, coulda, woulda. Um, but yeah, guys, thank you, uh, for tuning in if you've got this far. Um, any questions, please get them in the chat. And, and look out for my video— not video, Instagram message next week— where if there is any other markets that you guys want me to look at, and the more obscure, not a problem. Um, I'm more than happy to do that. But, uh, yeah, this will be it for, for this week, and I look forward to interacting with you guys in the comments, but also catching up with you all, uh, this time next week. Take care and have a great week.