105. 5 Charts You Need To Pay Attention To Right Now

Now is the time. The smart money is buying. The whales are buying. The OGs are buying, the retail are not. When do retail buy? When the market goes up in the complete wrong time.

If you are listening to the Bennebergs podcast or you're a Collective Shift member or you know about crypto, what are you doing with your life? If you do not own crypto or you are not accumulating crypto and you look back and you remember us telling.

You, I will come up to you, I will find you and I will remind you that you should have bought crypto.

This is the opportunity. Do not let it go past. You will regret it.

We've seen this movie before. We're speaking from experience too and it's changed our lives. It's changed my life massively. And now it's time to repay that. Welcome back to another episode of the Ben and Bergs Podcast. I'm Ben, your favorite high school dropout and founder of Collective Shift alongside Ms. Bergs, your favorite MBA and COO of Collective Shift, Australia's leading crypto portfolio insights company, providing professional analysis of portfolio strategies for crypto investors. Like you, we are a unique blend of the established and the self made and we're here to break down crypto business and personal growth. We're not just here to talk crap though, we're here to give you the insights you need to make better investments, build successful businesses and level up your life. I'm excited about this episode because we have some data that is showcasing to us why we might be on the cusp of one of the biggest opportunities in crypto of all time. There's five charts that we're going to walk you through and we're going to explain, because you're going to be listening to this, why.

So many people are not actually seeing what's going on on chain and who's actually making the most of this opportunity and who's not.

So as we know, the bitcoin halving is an event that comes around every four years and historically has been the chart or cycle that has given us the best indication of when a bull market is going to happen. The first halving that ever occurred, for the year following that halving date, Bitcoin increased 8,000%. In the second halving, Bitcoin increased 300% and the last halving, Bitcoin increased 560%. The next halving is coming up in April.

I expect it to be the same. We have a lot of other things that are lining up. There is some things that are Pushing this back, like the FTX drama, you know, liquidity low rates remaining high, global regulation, there's a lot of that stuff. Right. But regardless, we'll get through that at some point in time. For me, it's a matter of when, not if.

Look at this. So now Ben, just to, just to jump in for a sec, look at this. 80x28x. No, sorry, 3x6x. Like these are huge numbers that you just don't get anywhere. And it's through a market cycle that has repeated over time that is coming up.

And we get access to all this information through collective shift. So we've taken this for the listeners, the best charts that people have been talking about this narrative for a while. But this really highlights historically and what's happening at the moment and the direction things are going.

Yeah, exactly right. And right now these are really bearish. Right. Bitcoin, we're probably down approximately.

75% from all time highs, maybe 70%. But as we look at the price drawdown, which is the second chart, price drawdown from all time high, we're seeing a similar trend. The peak drawdown is pretty much at the same level as the last four bear markets, maybe slightly less drawdown. Previous cycles we've, we've drawn down anywhere between 80 and 90% and we're currently at so that 75% range. So sentiment is at an all time low. You know, we were at peak pessimism and lack of interest, which is a really good bottom signal to understand where we're at now. A lot of these factors and metrics line up with other things that we need to spur out a bull market. One of those which we spoke about before, the spot, the spot Bitcoin etf. We've spoken about stablecoins a lot in terms of the stablecoin utilization is still very high. Increased liquidity and lower rates is a big one. For many of the last four year cycles we've had the Fed printing money and global interest rates have been low. So if we can get that back over the next 12 to 24 months, that's going to really spur on. There's a real high correlation between money supply and bitcoin and then the clear rules and regulations. But the third chart which is most interesting is the lack of exchange volume on cryptocurrency exchanges. We are at lowest levels in the last three years. We're going back to low levels not seen since October 2020. Now what that basically shows us is there's a real, real lack of any retail investors right now there's basically no retail investors in the market and those retail investors that are still here and the money that's going on exchanges are primarily not going into altcoins. That's why altcoins tend to bleed. Altcoins are driven primarily by speculation and FOMO and there's zero of that going on. So altcoins will continue to bleed while exchange volumes are at all time lows, Sorry, three year lows. But again it's another good intro. It's another good indication of when a reversal could start to happen when things are such in a bearish position. Now the next one here is on chain data. So the on chain data is one metric or one I guess channel of analysis that we use a lot of collective shift. We have one of the world's leading on chain analysts that provides insights for our members and one of the charts that we love to see and look at is the MV RB ratio, which is the market value to realize value ratio. This is a really common one to understand where market bottoms are. It basically compares the value of bitcoin that's already been bought by investors versus the price of bitcoin. So when the value of the bitcoin that's already held by investors goes below this dollar ratio historically has been a very, very good indicator of when a market bottom has occurred and a bull market proceeds. So every time this indicator has gone off, which is 2012, 2015, 2019 and 2022, December last year has all indicated a market bottom. The only time that we we haven't seen yet is December last year. And that's when Bitcoin hit 16,000 and we rallied 80% off that 16,000 level. That indicator went off at that same time. So it's a really interesting chart to showcase when things become undervalued and when a bull market might be close. And more recently that that went off in December last year.

And I want to touch on what you said then about retail investors. There are hardly any retail investors. The majority of people listening to this podcast will be retail investors. So this comes back to being greedy when others are fearful. And think about the people that are investing now. BlackRock. Look at those guys putting in an ETF. How many trillions they have under management. It was like 11. Truly or something ridiculous. And all of the, we speak to a lot of family officers, a lot of wealthy people. All of them are either holding bitcoin or accumulating bitcoin. And you think about this, if you're a hedge fund or a family office or Whatever. Back in the last bull run, your customers were coming to you going, you're giving me a 10%, a 20% return, whatever it is. Why the f are these crypto guys getting a thousand percent returns? What are you doing? So they've had to wake up and they've had to become sophisticated and learn and get into this. Just because retail volumes are down and price action isn't happening doesn't mean crypto is dead. It means there is opportunity, an opportunity for you to, to profit from the upcoming bull run.

Yeah, it's a great, great point you make. And it transitions really, really well into the last and most important chart here, which is the bitcoin total supply held by long term holders. So the first few charts, which we've just explained, showcases why retail investors are nowhere to be seen. Sentiment's down, prices are down, retail investors are not trading. Exchange volumes are down. Everything's down. But this chart here showcasing the long term bitcoin holders. So this is investors that have bought and hold, held bitcoin for longer than a year and have not sold is going up and to the right, burgs on and on and on, like a 45 degree angle. This just is just continuing to climb. So what it's showing us is that bitcoin holders are continuing to accumulate more and more and more bitcoin every month to a point now where 14.8 million bitcoin are held by bitcoin holders that haven't sold in over a year. I think it's somewhere close to 90 to 95% of the circulating supply of bitcoin is held by people that haven't sold in over a year. Maybe it's not that high. Maybe it's about 80%. It's a extraordinarily huge amount.

Exactly.

80% is crazy.

Yeah. And you look at people like Michael Saylor like he's spending billions on bitcoin. What does he know that you don't go and listen to some of the things that he says? Why are all these people like Jack Dorsey building on bitcoin? Why are people in crypto, why are they accumulating right now for the really good cryptocurrencies that will have long term value and long term purpose? There's a reason behind it. Now is the time.

Now is the time. The smart money is buying. The whales are buying. The OGs are buying. The retail are not. When the retail buy, when the market goes up in the complete wrong time.

Exactly. When they're buying, you want to be on the sell side. That is when you sell, not be on the boat with everyone else. That crowded boat with all the other sheep you want to accumulate before them, and when they're coming on, you want to sell them things. That is where you make your money.

And you get off that boat.

100%. So that, my friends, is the opportunity.

The retail investors that buy at the wrong time and sell at the wrong time are not here. The whales, the OGs, the institutions are buying.

What side of the fence do you want to be on? What boat do you want to sit on?

And we've said this. Yeah, we've said this a few times. If you are listening to the Bennebergs podcast, or you're a collective Shift member, or you know about crypto, what are you doing with your life? If you do not own crypto or you are not accumulating crypto and you look back and you remember us telling.

You, I will come up to you, I will find you, and I always remind you that you should have bought crypto.

We gave you so many warnings. We told you about this so many times. This is the opportunity. Do not let it go past. Even if you're still not sure and you own some crypto, at least look at your portfolio. Rejig your portfolio, set yourself up, have a strategy, or accumulate some bitcoin and Ethereum, come to Collector Shift and buy some other stuff as well. Do not miss out on this opportunity. You will regret it.

We've seen this movie before. We're speaking from experience, too.

I've regretted the last two cycles. Yeah, I've. I've made significant mistakes.

I know what that feels like, and it absolutely sucks. I don't want that to suck from someone else. We don't benefit from you buying crypto.

We don't benefit at all.

Right?

We are not an exchange. We don't take a clip. You're just listening to a podcast, literally.

We are trying to help spread the word about crypto and how to leapfrog and get your way to financial freedom before everything else comes in and it just becomes a normal investment. We are way ahead of everyone else. This stuff is still slightly difficult. This is the opportunity.

And it's changed our lives, changed my life massively. And now it's time to repay. That same guys are changing lives in there. Go to Exchange, Buy some bitcoin.

That's it.

Thank you, everyone. Once again, if you'd like to see these charts, you can check out our YouTube channel. We will upload these so you can see the visuals. Otherwise you can head over to. Actually, no, that's a lie. You won't see these on the on the YouTube channel. You will see these on the collectorship platform. So if you are a member, you can head over and you'll be able to see some of these charts from the research that we're doing inside the member platform. Thank you everyone once again for listening. And if you know of someone that needs to hear this, please do us all a favor. Send them this episode. Tell them Bennebergs told you to listen to this episode. Convince them that now's the time. Get your friends in order. Get everyone in order. Get your parents in order. I've got my mum and dad. My mum and dad are finally dollar cost averaging. It's taken me seven years, but they're into it. They're away.

Love it.

Get your family and friends around this. Get them set up properly. Don't lead them down the garden path. Don't let them buy scams. Don't let them buy Ponzi. Don't let them get into crazy shit. You know, trade, you know, 4% a day trading nonsense, mumbo jumbo. Buy the assets, hold for a long period of time. Change the world.

Love it, mate.

Thanks, everyone. See you, Bugs.

Thanks, champions.