110. The Peak of the Bull Market will be Unbelievable, Here’s Why

Welcome back to another episode of the bennetbergs Podcast. I'm Ben, your favorite high school dropout and founder of Collective Shift, alongside me as Bergs, your favorite MBA and COO of Collective Shift, Australia's leading crypto portfolio insights company, providing professional analysis and portfolio strategies for crypto investors. Like you. We are a unique blend of the established and the self made and we're here to break down crypto business and personal growth. But we're not here just to talk crap. We're giving you the insights you need to make better investments, build, build successful businesses and level up your life. And today we are talking about why this bull market is going to be bigger than any other bull market and probably will be the only chance you have to make life changing amounts of money. And we're going to predict and give you some charts and data to give you when this event is going to happen, how long it's going to last for and how we believe this is actually going to play out. So, so it's exciting. Time burks. We've seen bitcoin pump up to at the time of recording, 34 and a half thousand USD. We had a big 10% spike in the last week. Things are moving but still no one's really paying attention and we've got a great foundation in this next cycle.

Love it, mate. It's. Everything changes when you have a bit of price action. Everything that we've been saying now all of a sudden it's just magically true and people believe what we're saying all because the price has changed. Nothing fundamentally has changed. Everything's been the same. You know, everything's ticking along nicely. But that little bit of price action. You know what, these guys are right. It's amazing, isn't it?

Oh, they're not dumb. They actually know what they're talking about. And we had our biggest sales week during that week when we had the price pump, you know, which is just goes to show as soon as there's price action, people are back.

That's right. And you need to think about what kind of investor you are and type of person that you are. Are you going to buy just because there's price action and it's exciting or do you actually know the fundamentals behind these things and are you going to get in and where in this episode we're going to project forward and look at our predictions of what the next bull market is actually going to be like and the things that are going to happen based on our experience in the market and what our Analysts are seeing.

So one of the biggest things is around these cycles, as we've been harping on about, is the four year cycle around the halving event. And historically the peak of each bull market has been approximately 12 to 16 months after the halving event. So in the first halving, Bitcoin increased by 8,000% after its first year of halving. Second halving event, Bitcoin increased by 300% in the, in the first year after the halving. And the third halving, Bitcoin increased by 560%. Now the fourth halving is starting in six months. So based on historic numbers, we have about 18 to 22 months, sorry, 18 to 24 months to go before we hit the peak of the next bull market. And giving, given we are already at this sort of 34, $35,000 level and seeing who's actually buying right now and who's not buying right now.

Is hugely bullish in my opinion. You know, folks, we've got another year and a half to two years of potential, you know, macro moving up, micro. Yes, we're going to have a lot of volatility like we always do in crypto, but it's going to be an exciting couple of years ahead. And one of the key things that most people don't know when you, when you're new to crypto or you just stop really paying attention is that crypto has been. Bitcoin specifically has a limited number of bitcoins. There's only 21 million bitcoin that will ever be created. Right. And 14.8 million of those bitcoin, or 76% of the total amount of bitcoin that's actually out there available to buy, is held by people that have not sold in over a year. Meaning that it's not like you can just go out and infinitely buy as many bitcoins as you want. And when the world wakes up and realizes that, you know, bitcoin is something that everyone should own, there's not enough bitcoin for every billionaire in the world to own. Bitcoin millionaire, like there's literally. Sorry, there's not. Yes.

There'S more.

Millionaires than bitcoin available. Meaning like when every millionaire wakes up and realizes that they want to buy a bitcoin, like they just can't, there's not enough. And when you have a limited supply asset like bitcoin and you have an increased demand and hugely increased demand, when you come into bull markets.

Basic supply and demand, right, equals that this asset is just programmed to go Up.

Exactly. And one key thing you said there was the peak is 12 to 16 months after the halving. That's the top, top, top, top. There is going to be a lot of price action in the months preceding that leading up. And there's a lot on the cards at the moment. And just the way you're talking there, Ben, about there's more than 21 millionaires in the world. They can't all own a bitcoin and they will want to as part of their asset allocation. There's a lot of rich people in this world. There's a lot of people in this world. And really, when you look at it, how are they going to buy that? They're either going to buy it, you know, know, directly, probably not maybe on an exchange or through an etf. So ETF is just on the horizon. They're going to come and they're going to gobble up a lot of that bitcoin. They are going to want your bitcoin. Now is the time to be accumulating, to be. If you don't have any bitcoin, buy a very small amount. If you have some bitcoin and you have money to invest, look at accumulating. This is definitely the time ahead of all the action that is going to happen next year.

There's 59 million millionaires in the world and now there's only 21 million Bitcoin. And 75% of that Bitcoin is held by people that haven't sold in over a year. I saw there's literally there's like, what, 4 or 5 million Bitcoin remaining of people that own it, that have sold within a year. So theoretically they are more likely to sell. That's like one in every 10 millionaires are going to be able to get one Bitcoin. That doesn't include all the normal people out there, you know.

Yeah. And what's even wilder is I think I saw a stat where it was like three plus million of bitcoin. That's just an estimate people think are lost. So in those early days when people had, you know, 10,000 Bitcoin, 20,000 Bitcoin they had on their computer, it was worth 50 cents, no one cared. Whatever. Throw the computer out now, it's worth billions. And those are actually lost forever. You cannot recover them. They have not moved on the blockchain for, you know, eight to ten years or something ridiculous like that.

Yeah. And another, another data point to back this up is the balance of bitcoin on exchanges. So the total amount of bitcoin on exchanges continues to slide. It is now at lowest level since June 2018. What this means is the less bitcoin available on exchanges, the less supply or the less amount of bitcoin there is for new market participants, so new investors to come and buy. This is. This trend is also suggesting that there is a growing contingent of price insensitive long term holders. Meaning that there is more and more people that are buying bitcoin that do not care about the price because they believe in it and so much. Right. So the balance and you won't be able to see it on the podcast, but the chart here has taken a reversal since sort of peak in just early 2020. And he's just on the decline. Right. There is more and more bitcoin being taken off exchanges, put into wallets. This is the, we've never had this before burks. There's never been this illiquid amount of bitcoin available for people to buy.

And think about what's fundamentally happening here. People are taking bitcoin off exchanges because a lot of exchanges have imploded. You've had FTX implode, you would have lost all your bitcoin. You might be able to claim some back, who knows? You've had things like three hours capital Celsius, a lot of scams and people are custodying their bitcoin. Okay, that's great. Now people want to buy bitcoin, so what do they do? They go into an exchange, they put their money on there, their fiat currency and they buy some bitcoin. But that order book, if you look at it, is very, very thin. When bitcoin is in high demand and they buy at market price. So I'd be like 35 grand, 35,100, 35,200, whatever it may be. If you go into an exchange and you look at that order book, at some point in time after a certain amount of bitcoin, I don't think it's that many at all. You go through and all of a sudden there's no more bitcoin left. So you are buying it the next best price. And that is whatever anyone decides to sell their bitcoin at. This is when you see those crazy jumps from like 35, 40, 50, 60, you wake up and Bitcoin's gone up 10 grand. Why has it gone up $10,000? Because no one's selling their bitcoin. The people that are selling it are selling it at an ultra high premium. And guess what, there's still demand for that ultra high premium bitcoin, it's so.

Crazy when you think about it. And this bitcoin ETF that we've been talking about so much like, you know, one of the, one of the things that happened recently is like we had a bit of a glimpse into the amount of money that came into to bitcoin. So currently.

There is so, so sorry. Going back to when we had that pump, more than $43 million flowed into various Bitcoin ETFs and ETPs that are listed worldwide on the day that bitcoin surge. So nearly 10% of the year to date, total volume of new money coming into bitcoin through those products came in one day. 10% of the yearly total came in one day. Like, and these aren't spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US. This is just stuff that's been sort of different products around the world.

So, you know, really what we've seen in terms of price action more recently, it's been led by existing investors that have been here for a while. Retail investors are still really nowhere to be seen. We're seeing three year lows in terms of crypto exchange volume. So a lot of the retail investors are still not here. Which gives us the indication that, you know, we're going to have such a higher level base foundation price for this next market cycle before retail investors come back. Which means that, you know, once they start to come back and we start to see speculation and people really trying to get into the market, like, hold onto your hat.

And retail investors are usually the last people to come in. It'll be what they call sophisticated people. And really that's just people with money. So I think the first people to get in are people like Ben and I, people that are in crypto that understand crypto, that have been in it for a while, that have been steadily accumulating and seizing opportunities. After that, it'll be people that have money because they have investment challenges, they have asset allocation challenges, and they're not exposed to something they've seen go up for a significant period of time and they know they need to allocate a small percentage to it. And then there's different variants of people between that and then there's retail people or laggards that will come in and eventually buy it right near the top and be holding those bags into the next cycle. And you need to decide where you want to be. Go and look at some of Michael Saylor's stuff, jump on collective shift. All of the regulatory things that are coming in. If you look at our macro environment, the money printing, the interest rates, inflation, fiscal stimulus, the broken monetary policy that we have. Well, actually, I shouldn't even say monetary. It's a, it's a feature. It's just the way that it works. If you want to counteract that and benefit from it, Bitcoin is a very, very good option in order to do that. It's literally why it was created. After the gfc and I saw on.

Twitter yesterday.

See if I can find it there, the US started to print money again. I think they were printing another $780 billion or something that went through for approval to do God knows what with it. Right. They're already at $33 trillion of debt and that's just going to keep rising. You know, the purchasing power of cash just continues to decline. The Aussie dollars has been spanked. Like, it's just a, it's just, it's an interesting time.

Yeah. I'll look at my fiat currency and that's devaluing every single day. It's offsetting my mortgage, so I get a small percentage there. But even look at the last month, like, Ben, we were talking about the money that you and I have made just from holding bitcoin, let alone all the other stuff that we do, it's quite significant and it is a sign of things to come. And I saw a cracking meme as well, and it was aliens land on the earth. What would the US government do? The answer, Print money. And it was just so spot on. Print money.

It's crazy though, right? Like, yeah, okay, let's go to Europe. Okay, well, one Australian dollar equals 52. 52 pound, sorry, euros, 0.52. Right. You're harming.

Yeah.

Halving your money. Yeah, Instantly. Just make value to the Europe. Like.

And if you have to ask yourself, like, if you're listening to this podcast, you understand inflation because everything that you buy has gone up. Like, interest rates have gone up for your house, petrol prices have gone up, food prices have gone up. Things are ridiculous. You understand inflation. What has to happen for that inflation to go away? So this, this is a big economic question, right? And generally what you do is raise rates so people don't buy as many things. Demand goes down, price reduces. To meet that, on and on it goes. Do you really see that happening? Are your wages increasing? Do you have more purchasing power? Are prices coming down? Where are the leading indicators, those signals to let you know there is a reversal? Guess what? There ain't one. Because it isn't happening. The inflation is going up and up and up and you know this is happening. And systemically you need to do something to combat that. So you invest in assets like you would generally, you would buy shares or something like that because they benefit from this. And you would buy things like bitcoin. You need to invest if you want to survive. And this is how rich people get richer. It's very, very simple. And if you look through history, look through the 70s, what happened with real estate, you know, especially in the States, look through the early 90s and 2000s housing boom over here. Look through any period in history in the booms, and look at where interest rates were, look at where inflation was and how the economy was doing. And if you think this is going to be unwound by the government, just ask yourself, what do they have to do and what has to happen for that to be true? And you need to believe that story. All these things need to light up and happen for us to be back in the land of milk and honey. Or you can position yourself for the path we are actually going down, which all the figures back up.

If I had more money, I'd buy more bitcoin burgers. After your little pep talk, mate, I.

Have to talk to myself. I'm going to smack myself in the face. Like, I always talk about buying a bitcoin bottle, bitcoin now, like, really need to do it, manage my money psychology. Like I've been buying, but I need to do more. And you and I, I sat down, I did my actual crypto strategy for a collective shift and I was like, man, like, I've got all these goals and then, yeah, I get to this point, then I sell my bitcoin and I have these experiences and it's all good, but I'm like, but I need that. And then I'm missing out on more opportunity. Like, just in the last month, we made 20% on our Bitcoin. Like, where on the planet are you going to get a 20% return? Nowhere. And I'm like, bitcoin is too expensive and I'm thinking too short term. Like next year. Like, the targets that you and I had. Do you want to say the targets that we had for when we're going to start selling out?

Yeah, I just, I just want to put a, put a, you know, pin in that. Just really quickly though, like, we're actually out from when Matt posted on early December to our members that he was buying the bottom. I bought bitcoin then it's 16,000 up 110% in less than. Less than a year already on that investment, and then in the last month, up another 20%. So, like, I've already done with my money in the last year. Like, what? Like, people are sleeping on this.

And I massively. You told me. And I said, look, Ben, I want to invest this amount of money in bitcoin. It was a substantial amount of me, for me. And I'm like, look, I've got to do this. You know, how do I do it? Just talk it out with you. Like, I know what to do, I know what I need to do, but it helps to talk it out with someone. And you're like, what is wrong with you? Just effing do it. Like, just buy that biddy. And you're like, just do it. Like, who cares if you buy it at 35 grand, 16 grand, 20 grand, who effing cares? Like, next year that is going to be absolutely obliterated and you won't even care about your cost basis.

Yeah, because I think basically what you question. Yeah, I think Bitcoin's got 150. I think this next cycle, I mean, that's my price target. That may change. I don't like doing these big price predictions, but that's where I think so.

And this really helped me understand as well, because mine was very similar. Mine was 130k USD, yours 150. Because what I did was write down my goals and where is my crypto at the moment and where does it have to get to in order for me to achieve my goals? And what needed to be true was essentially Bitcoin does a 4x, let alone all the other crypto and spicy stuff we get into. So I also want to say that Ben and I own a lot of other crypto. We talk about BTC and ETH because it's easy in a podcast and it doesn't have all this assumed knowledge and it's very, very difficult and technical. Like, we have a lot of those things too, and that's why you come to Collective shift. But for ease of, like, understanding crypto, we speak about BTC and ETH. So it just has to do a 4X and it sounds ridiculous, like 400% return. But when you look at crypto and it has to just do a 4X, you're like, that's actually not that much. That is the thing that needs to be true for me to start averaging out and for me to then get that money and spend it on the goals that I have. And again, we're not saying Bitcoin is going to get that high, but that's what it needs to do for us to achieve our goals and it is not unrealistic.

So Bergs just filled out and done his own strategy. We've been sort of talking about this for a long time. If you, if you want to get your own strategy in order, I highly recommend booking a call with us. Just a 15 minute free call. Regardless of where you're at. We've got a 10 step process that we take you through and help you create your own investment strategy for this upcoming cycle to make the most amount of money you can. We'll talk about the other options we have if you want to continue on your journey and what we do as a membership. But if it's not for you and it's not a good fit, that's absolutely, absolutely fine and you'll walk away with a PDF document to help you with your strategy anyway, regardless. So it's a win, win. I'd highly recommend it. The links in on our website, just schedule a call. 15 minutes. It's 15 minutes. It's going to honestly be a game changer for you in this next cycle.

Yeah, just honestly think about that. Like yes, we work at Collective Shift and yes we are selling memberships but if you're listening to this, like honestly get it together. If you are confused or you need help or you need your portfolio sorted out or you just need to bounce things off someone, take that 15 minute opportunity like you do something and don't miss out on what is about to happen in this world. Like that is the worst thing that could happen to you and you don't have to buy a membership, you don't have to do anything. You just get on a call and just talk to Ben. Like I don't want people to miss out on this seriously life changing opportunity that is going to happen.

It would really bother me if people do. Like this is why, like we talked about why we're still in crypto and for me it's about, you know, people are going to miss out. Like we don't get a lot of opportunities in life and if you're not rich, you miss out on all the best opportunities. You only get the sanitized one. This is a rare event where you have an opportunity to have exponential investment opportunity like returns and it is something you need to seriously look at. You need to manage your risk and only invest what you can lose. But this is an opportunity not to sleep on. Like I've slept on it multiple market cycles and I know how I feel. And if it was my parents and my friends and everything doing that, you know, it just. It doesn't feel good. Like, it feels like you've missed out, like on. And you have. You kind of like. It's like those claw machines better time zone where you go down and you grab the toy, but then the hand releases and it doesn't come back up. That's what it feels like. And now we've structured it well enough and we have a strategy process where anyone could pick up, you could sort out your shitty portfolio and you could follow that to the letter and you can actually execute and achieve your goals. Like, that is what people need to do in crypto.

And I recommend, if you haven't listened to it, go and listen to episode 106, why are we even in Crypto in the first place? It was a cracking episode. And yeah, it's going to really give you an indication as to why we're even doing what we're doing because we generally want to help and, and help you win this in this next cycle.

So I will, Ben, I will even go as far as to say this. If you're listening to Ben and Bergs, we already love you. Come and talk to us because we're legit guys. If you don't like us or don't want to talk to us, go talk to some other professional about crypto. I don't care. Just get your shit right, get in the game and get it sorted. Go see someone you're comfortable with. It does not bother me. Just go for it.

Yeah, agree. Get it done. Thank you, team. Hope you love this podcast or this episode. I think it was a good little conversation. We'd love for you to leave a review. It's how we grow the podcast. If you're on Spotify, if you're on Apple Podcasts, please go down, give us a honest review. We really want to help grow and make sure people are getting the right education in crypto in this cycle so people can actually win and do it the right way from independent sources like ours. So, as always, thank you so much for listening and we'll see you on the next episode. Thank you, Bergs.

Thanks, Ben. I'm going to buy some more bitcoin. Thanks, champions.