116. Crypto Bull Market Confirmed. Don’t Miss Out. Look For These Signals.

You'd sell to Fiat if you want to spend it. You'd go to a stablecoin if you want to stay in the ecosystem and deploy your capital at a later date. And you would buy an altcoin because you're chasing future profits. That's important. At my target, I'm selling half of my BTC and ETH that's going into Fiat. I also have altcoins and an allocation. When those altcoins really raw. I'm going to replenish my BTC and ETH stack. We're moving the riskiest assets to less risky assets. So we're moving BTC and ETH to cash, which is less risky. We're moving altcoins to BTC and E. You keep moving down the stack to de risk that and keep your profits.

Welcome back to the Ban and Bergs podcast. I'm Ben, your favorite high school dropout and founder of Collective Shift alongside M. Bergs, your favorite MBA and COO of Collective Shift. Join us as we bring you world class crypto research and strategies to help you dominate this crypto bull market as well as a behind the scenes look at us scaling a fully remote subscriptor research business in Australia. Just quietly bugs that. That's way better than. Guys, we got a new intro. If you didn't pick that up, we've been working on that. That's way better.

Love it mate. It's music to my ears.

Amazing. Guys, we've got a cracker episode for you today. The bull market is confirmed why this time is different and how to win this cycle. It's been a epic couple of weeks, Burgs. Well, I mean been an epic year. Bitcoin is up 158% year to date and the last couple of weeks bitcoin has rallied. So we're recording this at the time of recording bitcoins at just to tick over US$44,000. We're going to be talking about why the bitcoin market's confirmed, how it impacts you and why I believe this cycle is going to be absolutely face melting because the foundations of this cycle is so much different to previous cycles which we're going to talk about. And for a lot of you that haven't been through a full cycle, this is a really important episode to listen to. And even those that have been through a cycle or two and haven't made the money that you want to listen to this episode because everything we've been harping on about now for years have finally starting to come true. And you can truly make life changing amounts of money this cycle if you're patient enough and if you play this cycle correct because everything's playing out exactly as how we'd hoped. And honestly it's just, it's just fucking exciting. Burgs. How are you finding it? You bought some PTC recently, mate. You're like, you're, you're pretty quick.

Oh yeah, yeah. In the green massively mate. So tip some money in. Average buy price was about 35 to 37k. We're now at 44k. Happy Shappy. And it's amazing just to see it play out. I woke up the other day and I think bitcoin was like 39k. I woke up at 6:30 in the morning and that second it tipped over I was like, oh, oh, let's go. And now it's like three days later, already at 44k, another 10% in. This is what happens in a bull market. It is going to be. This is just the beginning of it, mate.

There's a few things that just. Life is just so much better. One, this podcast is seemingly much more enjoyable to create when crypto's going up because it's not like we're harping on about, you know, telling people it's going to go up and you know, waiting money is finally going up. Two, just seeing social media across the board start to build up. Like been doing some content more on Instagram recently and I've had two videos that have crossed a hundred thousand views and the shares on these things are just unbelievable. Like you could just tell people are back interested, they're sharing with their friends, people are excited again and I just love keeping receipts of everyone that told me and told us we were wrong, mate, because we're idiots in a bear market but geniuses in a bull market. So I can't wait to go and remind those people.

What about all those lads and lasses, mate, that left web3 pivoted to AI and are now coming back to web3.

I love it mate. You know, just check out their LinkedIn bio. Went from crypto to NFTs to AI, now back to crypto. Unbelievable. It's amazing. It's great.

Just chasing trends, mate.

It's great to see them back, great to see the local experts back.

Oh, sign up to my newsletter, my new podcast.

But you know, there's a few things I want to touch on just to, just to begin with in terms of these foundations that we're talking about. If you look at and I mean we're doing this full time, right. As a crypto research company, you know, we see the data firsthand, we get a great insight. The, the Google trends, the sentiment, the new users signing up to exchanges, you know, which we're speaking to, it's all telling us that, you know, we're still very early in this, in this bull market due to the amount of retail investors that are coming in. So in comparison to like let's say the 2017 bull market or the 2021 bull market.

The retail interest from a sentiment perspective is probably only about 10% of where it has been in previous cycles. And I fully expect this cycle to be way bigger than previous cycles in terms of retail interest. So, so to think the, you know, where we are right now is predominantly led by institutional money and we can see this backed on some of the more institutional grade products that's out there.

I can't remember the report exactly, but seeing the inflows coming in on chain primarily from institutions hasn't been seen at this level ever before. And that's what's most exciting. Even if you look at Michael Saylor, I just bought another 16,000 bitcoin. I think he owns close to 1% of the total bitcoin supply, which is insane. He's just conviction, he's unbelievable. I think he's up to a $2.1 billion unrealized profit as of current pricing. Like he's going to be, you know, he, he's going to go down to history made. It's just like, you know, you know, the big short, like there's going to be a movie made about him.

Oh, unbelievable. And he's just buying more and he's never going to sell. He's like, everyone's going to come in, it's going to take 20 or so years. I'm going to rent my bitcoin to them, but I'm never selling it. Just his narratives were amazing. If you want to listen to a good Michael Saylor podcast, they've actually released on crypto. Curious. Good friends of ours, Tracy interviewed him at the OZ crypto conference. Absolutely cracking podcast. Go and listen to that as well. You just learned so much, it was amazing.

The other, the other one is a really good indicator, indicator of retail interest is, you know, Coinbase, the app. They're the biggest exchange, you know how many downloads that's getting and in previous cycles it was like hitting number one on the App Store. Right now it's still way down the charts. So you know, from a retail interest we're seeing that quite low so we go, okay, well, what's actually driving this retail interest? Sorry, what's actually driving the price up right now? Well, for me, one, this is just pricing in the bitcoin ETF being approved. It has not been approved yet, but I think this is really starting to price that in as well. As we've had some uncertainty removed in the market over the last few months, with Binance being one of the biggest regulatory uncertainty players in the space now, the SEC sort of wiped their hands on that. There's been a huge retracement of uncertainty in the market and markets like Certainty, so that's been, you know, a really big winner. And as well as we've got the bitcoin halving coming up in April, now, that hasn't really hit mainstream media yet, but it will. And what's going to happen, Bergs? Is it going to be more and more people start to question and start to, like, educate themselves? One of the biggest things that I believe will bring in this next wave of adoption, which I've always spoken about, is price. Because price, price is what makes people most excited. When something's going up, people are interested. When something's going down and sideways, no one gives a flying for who's up. But when it's going up, people start asking questions and people start asking their friends and start researching. And that's when the education comes in and that's when people get that conviction.

Absolutely, mate. And really what we're seeing on the inside is, you know, a lot of crypto Twitter has woken up. Like, they're very active, they're talking now, but that is not the mainstream. That's not even 1% of people. Yeah, like this hasn't reached, you know, your family, your friends, everyone else. I haven't really seen in the news reporting on bitcoin yet. And you've been listening to this podcast, you know the story, you know how it goes. You will be rewarded for being in this. And this just hasn't even kicked off yet. All of these things, even things like, you know, ETF and Ethereum, etf, all the things that are yet to happen. The halving is yet to happen. You know, people say, oh, this is priced in. I don't think they've seen anything. Like, like, think about, you have a product, right? And you. How do you get more customers? You need to advertise for that product. That hasn't happened yet. The way that happens for normal people that aren't generally in crypto or people that are left is through the media. The Media hasn't picked up any of this and it's already kicking off. Can you imagine when, where we will be when all of these things happen and the media starts reporting on it and then all those companies that are involved, three ETFs start reporting on it. It is going to be face melting.

Yeah, great points Bergs. The, the other side of this however is like we've run up extremely fast, extremely quickly. So one of the things that we do need to be aware of, although I'm not really concerned about, is that if the Bitcoin ETF doesn't get approved now the date that we're looking for those Bitcoin ETFs to be approved is in early January. If the Bitcoin ETF was to be not approved then I'd, I'd suspect a pretty deep pullback on crypto broadly. So something to keep in mind that pretty much everything is priced it in to happen and I think it's most likely going to happen, probably 80% plus likelihood that's going to be approved. But on the flip side, if it doesn't get approved, I would suspect a pretty deep pullback.

Absolutely. The market likes certainty and this, the certainty is around this event happening, which is the ETF getting approved. It's going to happen at some point in time. We've got an indication of a date range where it will happen. If it doesn't, the market won't like it because it's uncertainty, it's negative sentiment and you will see a pullback totally bo.

Now the other thing to remember is as we head into the halving event, like what should you hold predominantly? Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoins. How does the market usually work? Well, Bitcoin usually leads the market and then capital will flow from that asset into altcoins and lower cap coins. So if you're holding predominantly BTC and ETH now, you're in a really good position. I probably wouldn't be increasing your exposure to altcoins just yet because I think that's gonna start to occur over the next few months as money starts to rotate in. And remember that these bigger institutions are not buying anything lower than probably Ethereum. They're pretty much only buying Bitcoin and Ethereum. So you know, the alts will only really rally based off retail interest, which is still, you know, not here yet. So remember that, stay patient. If you have altcoins, don't start going, chasing and rotating in and out. You know, I know a lot of people see these altcoins being Rallied. I mean, the gaming sector has been one that's just absolutely lit up, which we're going to do an episode on. But don't go chasing. Stay patient. It's one of the biggest lessons we've been trying to share with you on this podcast for a long time now is have conviction and hold for a long period of time. Don't go chasing because you see coins rallying over the next few months.

Don't go chasing waterfalls. Please stick to the rivers and lakes that you used to go on tlc. And let's just talk about why that actually happens, why bitcoin and ETH generally lead and why altcoins then pump. Because if you think about it, in any asset, if it appreciates quite significantly in value, you then have profit there. If you're going to take that profit in crypto, you can do it in a couple of ways. You can sell to fiat dollars or you could sell to another stablecoin, or you could sell into an altcoin. And why would you do each of those? You'd sell to fiat. If you want to spend it, you go to a stable coin if you want to stay in the ecosystem and deploy your capital at a later date. And you would buy an altcoin because you're chasing future profits. So they're the three areas that generally when you have profits in BTC and E that money will flow into. So when things are really pumping and they're pumped in one certain area and it hasn't happened in others, that capital will flow to those other areas to have that opportunity to gain more capital. And that's when we see altcoins really raw and do crazy things.

Great point burgs. And another thing to think about in terms of your portfolio is what are you trying to optimize for? Like, are you trying to optimise for Australian dollars, US dollars, Are you trying to build your bitcoin stack? For me, like, I'm looking to optimize in Australian dollars over the next 12 months, 24 months. But there may be some plays where I rotate some of my altcoins into once they start rallying back into stacking my ETH or bitcoin stack because my percentage diversification will become a lot more heavier in in your altcoins. It's important to remember that as your altcoins rally, it is very likely that you're going to get a lot higher percentage total allocation to your altcoins. So you need to remember and understand whether or you want to then rotate that out into cash or you want to put that to build up your bitcoin stack for a longer period of time. So it really just depends on your goals.

That's important. So I have my target. At my target I'm selling probably half of my BTC and eth that's going into fiat. I also have altcoins and an allocation there as well. When those altcoins really raw, I'm going to replenish my BTC and ETH stack.

Amazing. And for me, pretty similar. I'm gonna be moving some of my altcoins into cash once I hit my targets. But I might also start to build up my bitcoin stack so I can have a larger holding of BTC which I'll then sell again closer to the market cycle top but also hold a larger percentage of bitcoin during the bear market. Because in a bear market I don't want to be holding alts.

Exactly. And if you think about what Ben and I have just talked about, we're moving the riskiest assets to less risky assets. So we're moving BTC and ETH to cash, which is less risky. We're moving altcoins to BTC and eth. We're is less risky than altcoins. So you keep moving down the stack to de risk that and keep your profits and not have them at risk.

Brilliant. And the other thing to just remember is like this bull market is confirmed as we've spoken about before, the bull market pico top is historically between 12 and 16 months after the Bitcoin halving event, which would put us 12 to 16 months after April 2024. So you're talking, you know, early 2025 to mid 2025 is like historically where the top of the bull market will be, which is a long, long time away. So stay patient, don't get too excited. There's a long, long time to go soon in the cycle.

The Coinbase ads, how good are they? Did you see these? Yeah.

How bullish. They're like movie quality, you know, it's like cinematography. Mummy really liked 30 second ads. It just hits home mate right in the right.

They, they specifically target housing where it's like 1960s, you sign a mortgage, you get a house. 1970, same thing, 80s all the way. And then it's like, you know, 2020, have multiple jobs, get a mortgage, have multiple people sharing your house. It was just, you know, it's like opt out of that system and opt into ours and then the Coinbase logo just appears. These ads are phenomenal and it really Hits the current culture around fairness, getting ahead. I do the work, but I can't have what my parents had. Housing is just absolutely mental. I'm getting eaten in fees, in tax, in interest. And crypto offers a way to actually get ahead, to leapfrog that. And these guys have just nailed that marketing and now the culture and feeling among the majority of young people at the moment.

Yeah, man. It's all about shifting to this new world. That's the idea of collective shift. And we're collectively moving and shifting to a new future. And, you know, that's so exciting because we're on the cusp of one of the greatest revolutions, financial, technological, society, social revolutions.

Probably in our lifetime. And that's pretty cool.

And it takes a lot of time. Like, you know, Sailor was saying, politicians have to say things like 57 times before people hear it. Once, you know, people harp on about stuff for years and I don't know why. In this, in, in the world we're in now, where you have this emerging technology, we immediately think it's going to be adopted and change and take over everything. That's not the way the world works. We have entrenched institutions, we've got policies, we've got law, we've got frameworks, and we've got heaps of people that have vested interest in what they're doing today. We also have people that are busy and can't understand this stuff. It takes decades for this to come through and for it to actually implement that meaningful change. Just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it's not going to be a thing. It's definitely going to be a thing. There are so many people behind it. Give it some time. And if you're listening to this podcast, it's a. It's almost like a meme. But you are early to this. It is still difficult to buy bitcoin compared to other things. Take advantage of that.

I couldn't have said it better myself. And if you want to take advantage of it, we're actually hosting a live masterclass. And next week, 14th December 2023 and also 15th December 2023, on how to fix your portfolio and profit from this upcoming bull market. Completely free. It's live. We've already got nearly close to 300 registrations, which is absolutely awesome. We're going to drop the link in the description below. I'll be there. Our head of research, Matt, will be there. We're going to be walking through how to create a portfolio strategy. You know what Sectors you should be looking at what we're doing with our money and really how to get out near the top of this cycle. We're going to be walking through a lot of that on our live call completely free, so we'll drop the link below. Would love to see you there. Bergs, do you have any final thoughts on bull market being confirmed?

Mate, I just love to be in the bull market. It makes everything easier and it's that kind of sweet feeling where everyone told me I was an idiot for investing in and working in crypto and look, now it's all coming my way. I saw something they didn't and now it's actually happening and it's, it's a really good feeling because a lot of the time you start to wonder like, am I a dickhead? Am they right? Are they right? And you know those, those thoughts have really gone and now it's been confirmed and join up on that webinar. It is free and I can actually recommend this very, very highly because this is. Ben did a talk at the OZ crypto convention. It was packed out, 300 people there seated, probably another 150 standing behind. Incredibly captivating talk and Ben has now taken that and everyone came up and talked to us about it at the end like it was non stop with lost our voices and we've taken that talk. We're now adding Matt into the mix and we're expanding it and making it look just better, more succinct and more valuable. So get amongst that. It's a free webinar. Just jump in there, get your life right.

We'll see you there, guys. Thanks so much. Thank you for listening. Bring on the bull market. See you next time.

Bring on the bull market. See you champions.